Cardinals' Wainwright Has 'Significant' Elbow Injury
Could be headed to Tommy John surgery. Wainwright is a fine pitcher. Bad news for the Cardinals.
over 1 year ago
Al Yellon
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This is shaping up to be a nightmare season for Cardinals
Without Wainwright the Cards are a clear number 3 in the division.
by JSB on Feb 23, 2011 8:47 AM CST via mobile reply actions
without wainwright
there’s very little difference between Cards and Cubs
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 8:53 AM CST up reply actions
and their colors are read
and ours are blue
i meant in terms of overall talent and value on the team. The composition has differences but the total value is now very similar
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:27 AM CST up reply actions
argh
RED
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:28 AM CST up reply actions
he can carry an offense
i havent seen him on the mound…
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:32 AM CST up reply actions
yes
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:51 AM CST up reply actions
no
just intellectually consistent
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 3:26 PM CST up reply actions
Well, Pujols has the thighs
He would really be able to drive through on his pitches.
Any nobody would charge the mound on him.
Personally, this was the least snarkiest thing you could have said. I laughed.
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
by RiskyBusiness on Feb 23, 2011 12:46 PM CST up reply actions
Bonds could not carry the Giants
A-Rod could not carry the Yankee’s, and Sir Albert cannot carry the Cards.
Good Guys Wear Blue
by Cubskingdom on Feb 23, 2011 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
rec'd with much hope that you are right!
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Feb 23, 2011 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
Just pitch around Pujols the way the NL pitched around Bonds
If you are that worried about him, put him on 1B.
Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in!
The Giants made the WS on that approach
And folks are right that when it was Bonds alone, they weren’t successful. But Bonds and Jeff Kent was dynamite. The Cardinals have Holliday to fill the same role.
by Orval Overall on Feb 23, 2011 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
To a certain point, yes they can.
But who do the Cubs have to carry the team? The answer is, no one to the same extent that Albert can for the Cardinals.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
legit superstar yes
but….they have Theriot at SS
No
It’s his arm. Not his brain, heart, liver, pancreas, balls, stomach, etc. He will have made something like $16M if his career is over right now. I would undergo Tommy John surgery on both arms today for $16M. In the grand scheme of things(life), Tommy John is so incredibly minor.
I couldn't hear ya...could you repeat that?
"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous
It's still pretty crappy
It’s generally bad form to wish injury on someone.
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 23, 2011 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think he wished the injury on him...
but, it happened AND he’s a Cardinal, so…meh.
I’m not any happier for Wainwright than I was for Peavy last year…if that’s any consolation. It happens. Part of the “breaks” of the game. Sometimes you’re the beneficiary and sometimes you’re not. That’s a Cy Young Award candidate that we won’t have to face 5 or 6 times this year…so, it it what it is.
"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous
No
It’s his arm. Not his brain, heart, liver, pancreas, balls, stomach, etc. He will have made something like $16M if his career is over right now. I would undergo Tommy John surgery on both arms today for $16M. In the grand scheme of things(life), Tommy John is so incredibly minor.
You can say that again.
"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous
No
It’s his arm. Not his brain, heart, liver, pancreas, balls, stomach, etc. He will have made something like $16M if his career is over right now. I would undergo Tommy John surgery on both arms today for $16M. In the grand scheme of things(life), Tommy John is so incredibly minor.
what? I bent down to pick up a nickel, Thought I missed some conversation
Good Guys Wear Blue
by Cubskingdom on Feb 23, 2011 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
Yes, I always base my sympathy for a career-threatening injury on how much money
that person has been payed up to the time of that injury. BTW, you can avoid having the surgery on both arms for $16M by simply developing a skill that 40,000 people will pay an average of 50 bucks apiece to watch.
Save Ferris!
He’s stuck on repeat!
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This could be the first truly ugly season for Cards nation in some time.
What with the season-long Pujols soap opera and now this major blow to their ability to contend “Baseball Heaven” could be getting a taste of Baseball Hell by the end of July.
if you were the Cardinals
and were out of it – would you deal Pujols at the deadline if you could – I believe he should have 10-5 rights…
by hansman1982 on Feb 23, 2011 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
Everything is LaRussa's fault
Global warming; the Wisconsin budget nonsense; my itchy toenails; my son’s cold.
Everything. It’s the only way to view the world.
"It's all in the game, yo"
by Worf on Feb 23, 2011 9:15 AM CST up reply actions 5 recs
Even that pile left in Dusty's dugout was LaRussa?
"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous
LaRussa is the anti-Ted Lilly
Good Guys Wear Blue
by Cubskingdom on Feb 23, 2011 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
No.
Molina is the anti-Ted Lilly
Annos Catuli. Every Year.
by OldStyle_and_Ivy on Feb 23, 2011 3:02 PM CST up reply actions
Shouldn't that collision have caused a massive explosion, then?
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 23, 2011 3:16 PM CST up reply actions
No explosion, just sheer awesomeness!!!
by ubercubsfan on Feb 23, 2011 3:28 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
I miss Ted
sniff
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
by Doggie Stalker on Feb 23, 2011 7:48 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe they haven't tried the towel-drill with him yet
That should fix it. And duct tape.
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
by RiskyBusiness on Feb 23, 2011 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
I can't say I feel bad for Cards
fans, but I do feel bad for Wainwright.
I wonder if this could make them try to talk Pujols into a trade this season. They aren’t likely to contend without Wainwright, and trading Pujols is their best chance of keeping him out of the division and getting something for him. If they truly feel that re-signing him is a lost cause, it would be a good thing to try.
DEJESUS!!!
Maybe.
Depends on where they are, where they want to deal him, and whether that team has a legit shot at signing him. He’s already said he doesn’t want to go somewhere for only two months.
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should he have 10-5 rights this year?
or is this year his 10th in the league – too lazy to look it up
by hansman1982 on Feb 23, 2011 12:45 PM CST up reply actions
He has been in the league for 10 years.
So he just reached 10-5 status, which makes the situation even more complicated for the Cards as the trade deadline approaches. IF they are out of it, which is doubtful.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
you could make that a negotiating point
tell him if he approves the trade they will pony up the cash…
by hansman1982 on Feb 23, 2011 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
They won't trade him. They can't.
The owner/GM who trades Albert Pujols may as well buy a cemetary plot next to Harry Frazee.
If Pujols leaves of his own accord, then he’s the villain and the team can talk about how hard they tried to sign him, how much they offered, and how they just can’t compete with the big budget [INSERT TEAM HERE] if all a player wants is money. If that happens, there is outrage, but much of it is directed at Albert and not the team. If Pujols leaves because he is traded away, then the fans revolt and half of them don’t come back for a decade.
by Orval Overall on Feb 23, 2011 9:28 AM CST up reply actions
eh
they still have a chance to negotiate with him at the end of the season and he should net a good prospect or three – this way if he still walks away from the Cards they can goto their fanbase and say – we at least got this…
granted this is all a moot point
by hansman1982 on Feb 23, 2011 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think you are giving Cards fans enough credit.
If they trade him it will only be because they can’t resign him. So a smart fan would recognize that and understand they would at least get some good prospects via a trade as opposed to just letting him walk at the end of the year and getting squat.
Smart fans
wouldn’t hold up the sign: “Get a Brain Morans”
by Orval Overall on Feb 23, 2011 5:02 PM CST up reply actions
For those who do not know....
… that photo has nothing to do with baseball. It was at some kind of political protest. The guy just happened to be wearing a Cardinals shirt.
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Never let facts get in the way ...
of a good opportunity to make fun of Cardinals fans.
Oh, of course.
Just pointing out the reality.
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Exactly. Al, you're killing me.
Stop apologizing for the Morans.
by Orval Overall on Feb 23, 2011 11:27 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, plus he's already said he'll refuse any deal.
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I don't like this at all
I don’t like seeing great pitchers get hurt. It’s bad for the game. Having said that, I’m glad it was Wainwright and not Dempster. And I won’t shed any tears if it causes the Cardinals to win fewer games this season.
But I’d prefer Adam Wainwright was healthy and getting shelled by the Cubs.
But you’re right. I do feel bad for Adam.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2011 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
He'll be fine.
Even it does mean Tommy John surgery, we’ve gotten to the point where it’s more or less routine surgery. The catch is that you’re out for a minimum of one year.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
That's not quite true
TJ surgery is usually routine, but the chances of recovery are only between 85-90%. That means there’s at least a 1 in 10 chance that he won’t come back effectively.
Sure, good odds. But there’s a 10% chance his days of being a good pitcher are over.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2011 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
I feel bad for Wainwright and all of baseball.
We’ll all be denied seeing one of the best pitchers in baseball. Besides, I’d rather the Cubs beat the Cardinals at full strength.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Feb 23, 2011 9:29 PM CST up reply actions
Terrible news for them, though it could be a blessing for the Cubs
I mean, all Cubs fans are thinking the same thing. He’s a fine baseball player, but this definitely helps our chances. This would make the division weak enough that we could maybe clinch the division by default.
Viva la Cubs Révolution!!!
I got the Brew Cew winning this division now.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
Reds cruise.
in my opinion
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:28 AM CST up reply actions
I disagree.
The Reds are good. But they got a career year out of Scott Rolen and I don’t see their pitchers as dominant as they were last year.
The Brewers are being given a lot of props because of their acquisition of Greinke. Their bullpen is better, but is that pitching staff THAT much better than the Cubs’?
This will be a competitive division. Would I pick the Cubs to win it? No. But neither are they a guaranteed also-ran.
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Reds have more depth than anyone in the division
they have 8 potential rotation candidates (not James Russell guys, legitimate SP candidates). They have quietly as deep a bullpen as everyone else in the division and they have a young position player base that is entering prime years or still improving (Votto, Bruce, Stubbs)
they also have the most depth on the farm ready to step in as position players.
They are built for the long-haul of a major league season. They have the ability for things to go wrong injury wise and STILL hold their own
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:37 AM CST up reply actions
they also
won the division by 5 games and the team that was closest just lost their best SP, the next closest team was 14 games back. Other teams have a lot of room to close to get close to the Reds
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:44 AM CST up reply actions
Disagree on two counts
I don’t see their (Reds) pitchers as dominant as they were last year.
Its not like the Reds got career years out of a few veterans, their staff are a bunch of youngsters who are starting to come into their own. Ya, guys like Leake could easily regress, but the one veteran on their staff who had an abnormal year was Aaron Harang and it was to the downside. I hope I’m wrong but there is no reason to believe that their starting staff won’t continue to mature and improve.
The Brewers are being given a lot of props because of their acquisition of Greinke. Their bullpen is better, but is that pitching staff THAT much better than the Cubs’?
First off, they’re being given props because of their acquisitions of Greinke and Marcum. Don’t let Marcum slip under the radar… he put up very nice numbers for the Blue Jays last year in the vaunted AL East. Could Greinke have adjustment issues to a new city or could Marcum regress? Sure… but a 1-2-3 of Gallardo, Greinke and Marcul is THAT much better than the Cubs.
by dmlichte on Feb 23, 2011 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Sure… but a 1-2-3 of Gallardo, Greinke and Marcum is THAT much better than the Cubs.
I don’t see it that way.
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C'mon, Al.
We all want nothing but the best for the Cubs, but you can’t seriously believe that, can you??
Z, Demp, and Garza is a very, very solid top 3 (there… I said something nice about Garza!!).
But there’s really no way to line them up and NOT think the Brewers have a decided edge.
You can look at the group and see that the two best of those six guys are Greinke and Gallardo. That alone would give the Crew the advantage.
Or you can line them up one at a time in rotation order:
1: Greinke vs Demp: large to solid edge, MIL
2: Gallardo vs Z: slight edge to MIL for now, huge edge for MIL when Z implodes again.
3: Marcum vs Garza: probable slight edge to CHC, even though Marcum was much, much better last year (and that isn’t really debatable)
The Cubs absolutely can beat the Brewers, particularly on any given day. But they have a fair advantage in SP and a large advantage on offense.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
by fsuapollo on Feb 23, 2011 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
They meaning MIL in the last line.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Offense
That is really the comparison that should be made. It isn’t that hard to see the Cubs and Brewers rotations being nearly on par with each other. That said, the Brewers offense should be leaps and bounds better than the Cubs.
Eamus Ursuli!
I'd give the Cubs pen a big advantage
that negates that starting edge. I think our pitching is even.
But I think the Brewers can hit circles around the Cubs.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2011 12:28 PM CST up reply actions
I agree Greinke over Demp
But i prefer Z over Gallardo. While Marcum vs Garza are almost equal. Wells over Wolf. I dont know who the 5th starters will be but it doesnt seem like that big of a mis match outside of Greinke.
Z and Gallardo
are not close
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
Well there some differences in WAR
On Baseball reference it has Yovani at 2.1 and Z at 2.7 with 50 less innings thrown.
Fangraphs has Z at 2.4 and Gallardo at 4.6.
I wouldnt say they are radically far apart.
i think going forward they are
Gallardo last two years: 9.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 44% GB Rate
Zambrano last two years: 8.1 K/9. 4.3 BB/9, 44% GB Rate
Zambrano’s like a 3-3.5 WAR SP going forward
Gallardo’s more like a 4-5 WAR SP going forward
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
I think thats fair to say
But both guys have issues. Gallarado has had injuries and Z has head issues.
We do have a better 3-5. With a chance of Cashner being more than a #5 starter.
Who is the fifth starter?
And I get that all pitchers are high risk for injuries, but lowering expectations for Gallardo because he once collided at 1st base and landed awkwardly seems illogical to me.
to be fair
with the comparison
Zambrano hasn’t substantially topped that number in three years either
Z’s been durable through his career, but the last few years he’s had DL stints.
If you’re asking me to project health between the two i’d say they’re both mild injury risks
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
I didn't get into 4th and 5th starters because that we were discussing a top 3.
Wells and Wolf are pretty comparable, but Wells would get the edge.
The 5th starters are unlikely to give either team a decided advantage. The Brewers have the better top of the rotation (1-2), the Cubs have the edge from 3-5.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Yeah, I agree
Greinke’s issues make him hard to count on. If he’s right in the head, then he can be one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL this year. He has that stuff. But that’s still no different from the Cubs, about whom you could equally say “if their headcase ace pitcher puts it together, he could be dominant.”
Apart from that, I’d consider Dempster and Garza roughly equal to Gallardo and Marcum. Neither staff will dominate you the way Philly can, but they’re both pretty good.
by Orval Overall on Feb 23, 2011 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
Brewers Rotation
Its good rotation but will Greinke and Marcum be better than Sabathia and Sheets in 08. I guess they do have Gallardo… but still that 08 staff just snuck in the playoffs.
If your going by Pecota losing wainwright is losing a 6 WAR pitcher. That would put Cubs, Reds, and Cards around the 80-81win mark and brewers at 85 wins.
Cubs have a decent shot at 2nd place and a couple “ifs” for 1st place.
Sheets threw 198 innings
with 31 Gs thats pretty much a full season
CC was a beast
in just 17 starts. 7CG ,3 shutouts, and a 1.65 era with a 4.8 WAR. Greinke will probably be a 5 WAR so it could be about equal.
They have the better offense, I believe.
No, their rotation isn’t any better than the Cubs, and in fact, depending on the performances of the 4 and 5 spots in the Cubs rotation, we could actually have a better rotation. Their bullpen has the potential to be a bit better than the Cubs’, but surprises happen during the course of a season. I do think the Brewers will have the ability to score runs more easily than the Cubs. A lot of factors could nullify that though, but at this time, there are a lot of “ifs” with the Cubs’ offense. It’s an area that has struggled and been inconsistent over the past two seasons, and I’m quite sure that was really addressed over the offseason.
*If Ramirez bounces back to past-Ramirez form, the offense could compare nicely.
Lots of questions in Cincinnati's starting pitching
If their pitchers fall into place, you are probably right. But the Reds have guys who need to come back from injury or sustain recent high water marks from 2010 to get to that place.
It will be impressive if the Reds win the Central again.
Rarely do you see a team win the division, make no significant moves during the off season, and win again. Maybe they have the youth and depth to pull it off, but I will be pretty impressed if it happens. Volquez as their opening day starter doesn’t make all that confident about their chances.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Feb 23, 2011 9:36 PM CST up reply actions
Please Please Please
tell me you’re joking. I live in WI and that would make me physically ill
~Ronald Reagan has held the two most demeaning jobs in the country; President of the United States and radio broadcaster for the Chicago Cubs~ George F. Will
by unretrofied93 on Feb 23, 2011 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
I'm with you
Its Brew Crew for the win.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2011 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
If nothing else...
…things are set up rather neatly at the moment with the Brewers and Reds at the top, the Cubs and Cards in the middle and the ’Stros and Buccos at the bottom. Of course, they still gotta play the games …
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Speculation on how this would impact his contract situation?
If he finishes the year on the DL and his options don’t vest then the cards will likely have to bid against other teams (especially in such a weak starting pitching market).
This is all just a ploy!
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: His $9MM option for 2012 and $12MM option for 2013 will lock in as long as he does not finish 2011 on the disabled list. His second place finish in the 2010 Cy Young voting was step one of the vesting process.
Just another way to save money for 2012 to pay Pujols!
Or...
…doomsday scenario for the Cardinals. Pujols leaves, LaRussa leaves, Wainwright leaves.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
i dont believe that's accurate
not sure whether the options data is accurate, but wainwright will still be under club control based on service time
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:33 AM CST up reply actions
According to bb-reference...
… he’s a free agent next year. Or is that AFTER 2012? It’s not clear.
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i'm not sure
Cot’s has him with club options for ‘12, ’13 which typically if not picked up would mean he’d be a FA
BUT Cot’s also has his service time at 4.027 years, and he can’t hit FA before getting to 6 years of service time, right?
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:40 AM CST up reply actions
Right.
I assume he gets service time if he is on the DL all year, but that still wouldn’t be enough for FA.
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What is his salary for '11
As I recall there is a pretty tight limit on how steep a cut an arb eligible player can take. So, the Cards would either need to pay him in 2012 what they are paying him for 2011 or grant him free agency. Right?
Eamus Ursuli!
If Wainwright doesn't come back and stays on the DL at the end of the season..
the 9MM/2012 and 12MM/2013 can be saved and then Pujols can be signed easily for 25-28MM/year following the season by the Cards.
by ubercubsfan on Feb 23, 2011 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
options data probably is correct
but i dont believe it means because the options dont vest, he’s now a FA. I think he’d just go back to the arb process, but i’m really not sure here
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
Actually Baseball Reference..
has him for 6.5MM for ‘11 season. So he’s not a free agent till the ’12 seasons where his options start.
by ubercubsfan on Feb 23, 2011 10:34 AM CST up reply actions
This is a very bizarre contract
and probably never would’ve been noticed if it weren’t for a potential year ending injury.
Kevin Millwood is waiting for the Cards to call
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
Knowing hte Cardinals ...
Milwood will win 18 games if he signs there. I pray for the day when Dave Duncan leaves that team.
Silva
Maybe they’ll take Silva off our hands. Let’s see what Duncan can do with him.
Not really.
Does it make the Cardinals worse? Yes. Are the Cubs going to achieve any of the goals we have for them simply because the Cardinals lose an eliate player? No. This doesn’t help us beat the Reds or Brewers for the division; let alone the Giants or Phillies for the pennant.
by Orval Overall on Feb 23, 2011 9:32 AM CST up reply actions
Um, one of the favorites in the Cubs' division ...
just lost one of their aces. Pretty huge news to me. And I’m not going to continue a debate about this. It’s my opinion. You’re more than entitled to yours.
if not HUGE NEWS, then this certainly qualifies as REALLY BIG NEWS
St Louis just lost their best pitcher (one of the best in the game), and as a result, they will most likely win less games this year. This does improve the Cubs’ chances, although they still need to improve the team.
ask not what the Cubs can do for you - ask what you can do for the Cubs.
by holy mackeral on Feb 23, 2011 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
HUMONGOUS NEWS
Seriously, it is big news.
I don’t like seeing anybody injured — the Cubs have been on the bad end of that far too often — but this does bring the Cards back to earth a bit. Of course, part of me fears Duncan will find some gas can someplace and turn him into a 15-game winner.
Still think it’s going to be a four-way race for the top of the division.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Feb 23, 2011 1:36 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not prepared to say 'four-team race'.
The Cubs have guys with extremely high and extremely low ceilings. Ramirez, Castro, Soriano, Colvin, Pena and Soto are just so key to the Cubs — and at least half of them could have bad years.
I actually really like the Cubs pitching, but the offense makes me worry. Until I see a month of good Soriano, good Aramis, etc., I’m not willing to put the Cubs among the division leaders. But … I do have hope.
Exactly
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
by RiskyBusiness on Feb 23, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions
Absolutely.
Adam Wainwright is a really, really good pitcher.
230 innings last year, 2.42 ERA, 5 CG’s, 213 K’s.
I don’t think a lot of people realize that Wainwright is unarguably one of the best pitchers in baseball. This is a HUGE loss for the Cards.
Tommy John Surgery
According to Buster:
Buster Olney
Fukudometer: Created 3/31/08 Wrigley Debut 4/5/08 WGN and Japan TV Debut 4/6/08 Sun Times Debut: 4/20/08 Coffee Table Debut: 7/17/08
Long Term contract ramifications for the Birds
Not only does this really hurt them for 2011, but there are pretty serious downsides for 2012 and 2013. Had he finished this year healthy, his options for those two years would likely have vested for $9M and $12M respectively.
While they will save some money, there is no way to replace a guy like that for that kind of money.
Eamus Ursuli!
Wow. It's hard to ever be happy about an injury.
So I’ll say this very carefully: Hopefully no long-term damage to his career, hopefully his overall livelihood is not in jeopardy. Having said that, now looking at this totally from a Cubs fan perspective, winning the division just got easier. Still tough competition from Milwaukee and Cincinnati, always tough competition from the Cardinals no matter who they put on the field. All I’m saying is, over 162 games, that’s a big loss for the Cards to overcome, which makes things easier for the Cubs. There. Nothing wrong with saying that, right? It’s just stating the facts.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
No guilt
I would bet there aren’t too many Cardinal fans disappointed that Wood’s and Prior’s careers were derailed.
Eamus Ursuli!
Good point.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
Nope
In fact, I still hear Cardinals fans making fun of them for that and after we signed Wood this year some idiot was on the local radio station saying he hoped Wood suffered a career ending injury this season. No sympathy for Cards fans here.
by cubman987 on Feb 23, 2011 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I hear that...
…and rec’d.
"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous
Cardinal fans are far from the "best fans in baseball" garbage that they routinely espouse.
I don’t feel bad for them.
That said, I feel bad for Wainright. Seems like a decent enough guy.
That idiot no more speaks for all Cardinals fans
Than Ronnie Woo speaks for all Cubs fans
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 23, 2011 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
Tough break for the Cards...
…but terrific news for other teams in the NL Central.
I wouldn’t count out the Cards though. Duncan will probably take someone off the scrap heap and have him win 15 games this year.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I never count out the Cards until they are mathematically eliminated.
As long as LaRussa and Duncan are there, I honestly think they could play the entire season with their AA team and at least be competitive. They wouldn’t win the division, but I bet they would finish over .500.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
Crap...
he’s my "ace’ on my fantasy league team. Can’t depend on a Cardinal for nothin’!!!
"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous
Tough break - I assume that's a keeper league?
Or have you already drafted for 2011?
by Orval Overall on Feb 23, 2011 11:33 AM CST up reply actions
azcubsfan24
is in the same boat in my league – I am laughing all the way with Lester!
by hansman1982 on Feb 23, 2011 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
I NEVER root for injuries to other players...
This is a tough blow to the Cards rotation. But I know the Cubs have had to deal with so many injuries over the years – Zambrano, Ramirez, Soriano playing hurt, DeLee, even Nomar… But you still have to go out there and win games. Beat the teams you are supposed to beat (yeah, I’m talking about the Pirates) and just play good ball on a daily basis…
Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in!
So PECOTA projected the Cardinals to win 87 games and the Cubs 80 games
fangraphs had Wainwright projected to be worth 6.6 WAR in 2011, basically losing Waino makes the Cardinals about as good as the Cubs.
I like the Brewers (projected 85 wins) to win the division. They have the best top 3 in the division probably 2nd in the NL and return everyone on the 2010 4th ranked offense.
Cubs and Cardinals will probably compete for 3rd and 4th place
my issues with the Brewers
since its becoming more clear most view it as Reds vs. Brewers
all relate to depth and health. The Brewers cannot sustain significant injuries and contend. They just dont have any depth in their roster construction or their minor leagues.
In addition they have extremely volatile assets, for example Weeks (worth 6.1 WAR last season) has averaged 107 games/season for his career. Last year he played 161.
Corey Hart’s WAR the last 4 years: 4.3, 1.1, 0.7, 3.4
Prince Fielder’s WAR the last 4 years: 5.3, 2.7, 6.9, 4.1
They have the highest ceiling of any team in the division and I believe that’s by a pretty wide margin, but they have very little reliability in their team. We know Braun, Fielder, Greinke, Marcum, and Gallardo should all be worth 4-5 Wins on average
The question is what do they get from Weeks, McGehee, Hart. If its a combined 14 WAR, they’ll be very good. If its just 7-10 WAR well… they’ll be just OK
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
Health is key for every team, just look at the Cardinals in 2011 and the Cubs in 2009
but I see what your saying about the Reds depth probably allows them to absorb injuries better.
I try not to predict injuries or stat volatility for a team since we really have no idea. Overall, the Brewer’s offense, even with a few statistically volatile players, has also been a consistent juggernaut for the last several seasons since 2007 basically. The reason they’re better this season is obviously that they’ve improved the rotation.
If the Brewers top 4 in the rotation stay healthy, they’re much better than the Reds top 4. And I believe the Reds offense was #1 in the NL in 2010, but the Brewers were 4th. I see enough question marks in the Reds offense for skepticism. Will Rolen repeat his performance despite his age, will Votto have an MVP year again, will Bruce take the next step, will Phillips take the next step, etc…..
I think you’ve summed it up nicely with this statement
They have the highest ceiling of any team in the division and I believe that’s by a pretty wide margin, but they have very little reliability in their team. We know Braun, Fielder, Greinke, Marcum, and Gallardo should all be worth 4-5 Wins on average
The question is what do they get from Weeks, McGehee, Hart. If its a combined 14 WAR, they’ll be very good. If its just 7-10 WAR well… they’ll be just OK
I have a feeling that Weeks, McGehee, and Hart will all have between 3-5 WAR seasons and that on paper and if healthy, the Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central by a pretty wide margin. Marcum, Greinke, and Gallardo will probably be 5 WAR pitchers in the NL Central this year
of course health is key for every team
my point was not only that the Reds are better positioned to sustain health issues, their players have a better track record of staying healthy
Weeks hasn’t been able to stay healthy, Hart hasn’t been able to stay healthy and their reinforcements at those positions are guys like Mark Kotsay or Craig Counsell.
While they have a lot of upside, they also have a lot of potential for replacement level or below replacement level ABs: Betancourt, Gomez, backup players, etc.
If you need ~48 WAR to get to 90 wins, i think they have 22-23 from the core 5 players, then they have guys like Betancourt, Lucroy, Gomez, who are likely to combine for less than 5. We’’ll give them 5.
Lets say the bullpen is worth 4-6 (again a pretty optimistic projection).
We’re now at 31-34 with Wolf, Narveson, and the 3 guys mentioned before, and we need 14-17 WAR
Here’s the thing
In 2009 (counting Narveson at ’10 level since FIP was same) those 5 combined for: 8.8 WAR
In 2010 those 5 combined for: 16.4 WAR
there’s a high level of volatility to the 2011 Brewers
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 3:44 PM CST up reply actions
I guess we'll see when the games start
At least PECOTA seems to agree with me. I haven’t seen a single projection system that has the Reds finishing 1st in the NL Central, BTW…….
not saying the Brewers are a bad choice
i understand it
I’m just laying out the reasons why if i had to bet money, i’d feel safer with the Reds. They have less downside than the Brewers and over a long season I prefer the steadier team
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2011 10:31 PM CST up reply actions
Guys who I wouldn’t say have been steady – Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Rolen, Gomes, Bruce. Heck, I guess you could throw Votto in there with his stress issues. Not that I don’t think a lot of them will be steady.
that's fair
although you’re talking mostly guys who are young (which are generally more volatile assets) and hitting their prime years. Most of those guys WAR has been gradually increasing as opposed to all over the map. The ones who have been all over the map have dealt with injuries (Volquez)
now if you’re suggesting many are due for a regression after hitting peak seasons I can see the point, but i think its hard to argue that Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, Votto who are all entering their primes are more likely to fall off a cliff than settle in around these levels of performance.
As to some of the other guys you mentioned, Leake obv doesnt have enough experience to judge his volatility and he’s likely going to start the year as the 6th SP (working in AAA anyway) so i’m not sure that’s a big concern. Gomes was actually worth -0.1 WAR last year, so its not like he was a big contributor to their success. Rolen has been worth between 3-5 WAR for basically the last 5 seasons… he’s a pretty consistent player
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 24, 2011 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
Well, who knows what Bailey will be. Cueto and Volquez have been a lot less dominating than they seemed they would be for a while. Leake was great and then terrible – I’d guess due to workload. Bruce was really mediocre and then awesome IIRC. Rolen is old. He was hot 1st half and not 2nd. I just wouldn’t call those performances steady. Actually, other than his dizziness/stress thing, Votto has been pretty steady, but I’d expect him to drop off a bit just because he was so good.
So does anyone think...
…the winner of the NL Central will finish with less than 90 wins?
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
Yeah, that's what I was thinking.
I wouldn’t put money on it, but a less-than-90-win winner seems a little more feasible this year.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
This may be a dumb question, but
When using projected W/L, why doesn’t the projected WAR for a roster add up to that number? I’m just wondering, because you’re using Wainwright’s 6 WAR and subtracting it from the projected 87 wins. Just curious
Probably 4th best rotation in NL
Phillies, Giants, and Dodgers i would put ahead of them and Atlanta can be good if Jurrjens rebounds.
In other news
Jonny Gomes walked into the Cincinnati Reds spring training clubhouse early Wednesday morning singing at the top of his warbly voice.
The melody was not recognizable, but the words were plaintive: "Wainwright’s gone, Wainwright’s gone, Wainwright’s gone," he sang joyously.
The reference was to St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright, sent back to St. Louis Tuesday to have his ouchy elbow examined.
A few minutes later, the telephone in manager Dusty Baker’s office rang while he was meeting with the writers and he said, "Hey, son. Thank you, my son. Thank you big-time. Significant, huh? A significant injury. Thank you, my son, for the tip. I love you."
Baker hung up laughing and said, "That was my son, Darren, giving me the Wainwright Report. That’s my scout right there."
As luck would have it, Rick Hummell, baseball writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was in Baker’s office Wednesday and before Baker’s son called Hummell asked about Wainwright’s arm issues and Baker said, "What kind of arm issues does he have?"
Told that he had elbow issues, Baker smiled shyly and said, "Who are they going to blame for that one?" Baker, of course, is forever being accused (wrongfully) of ruining pitchers’ arms with overuse or misuse).
I know
also, lulz at this part:
Baker smiled shyly and said, “Who are they going to blame for that one?” Baker, of course, is forever being accused (wrongfully) of ruining pitchers’ arms with overuse or misuse
Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Edinson Volquez, and any pitcher under 24 years old says hi.
Its unreal how stupid
of a comment can be made with all of the twitters etc out there. Then again – assuming the source.
As far as Gomes – 18-19 games vs. the Cards this year. Enjoy it.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
Love how the DDN ...
inserted ‘wrongly’ there.
The Gomes stuff is inexcusable.
I’m kind of meh on the Baker stuff.
Wow.
I don’t usually hate teams. But the Reds are apparently hell-bent on making themselves unlikeable.
Check out Chicago sports coverage at SB Nation Chicago
by Al Yellon on Feb 23, 2011 4:52 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You know what's funny about that?
When Dusty was in Chicago, Reds broadcaster Marty B. railed against the Cubs. This was especially true of the infamous 2004 team. Now, Marty’s an ass, but the Cubs were especially unlikeable that season. I think Alou set a league record for mouthing off and throwing batting helmets.
Now, the Reds are about as unlikeable as the Cubs were then! They mouth off (Brandon Phillips, Jonny Gomes) and they get into scuffles with other teams. I wouldn’t be shocked if they routinely get into umpires’ faces.
Honestly, this HAS to come back on Dusty. It probably stems from his one-of-the-boys managing style.
he wont let us-he is everywhere
ask not what the Cubs can do for you - ask what you can do for the Cubs.
by holy mackeral on Feb 23, 2011 6:07 PM CST up reply actions
I can't stand little Thommy.
Couldn’t stand him when he was a Cubs broadcaster. Like him even less now.
Check out Chicago sports coverage at SB Nation Chicago
Dusty's Bread and Butter
… is creating an “us against the world” mentality where everyone’s out to get you, the media hates you, etc. I am so glad that Baker is far away from the Cub’s managerial seat.
Right, and...
… we saw how it backfired at the end of the 2004 season. Eventually, this will come home to roost in Cincinnati, too.
It worked in SF because everyone had Barry Bonds to hate, taking the focus off the rest of the team. It doesn’t work if you don’t have someone like that.
Check out Chicago sports coverage at SB Nation Chicago
Paging Jonny Gomes ...
Jonny Gomes to the white courtesy phone. Paging Jonny Gomes.
For the record, I don’t know if a 2004-style blowout will happen in Cincinnati. There’s simply not as much pressure on the Reds now as the Cubs had seven years ago.
I don't really care when my team is unlikeable
But I do agree, that 2004 team was WILDLY unlikeable.
GM's are in charge of Managers, not the other way around.
I like to like
my team, good or bad. Likeability isn’t as important as winning to me, but it does have some importance. It was easier for me to accept the failure of the 04 team because they were a bunch of asses. Angels fans enjoyed their WS all the more because that team was so likeable.
DEJESUS!!!
i had to remind myself who jonny gomes was
He's my Hossa
HO-HO-HO-HO-HOSSA
by jesus christos on Feb 23, 2011 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
how does he dance around like an idiot when he gets a meaningless rbi if his foot is in his mouth?
he must be pretty talented
He's my Hossa
HO-HO-HO-HO-HOSSA
by jesus christos on Feb 23, 2011 6:19 PM CST up reply actions
I'm starting to dislike Baker and the Reds more than the TLR and the Cards :(
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Feb 23, 2011 5:38 PM CST up reply actions
NEVER!
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
by Doggie Stalker on Feb 23, 2011 7:51 PM CST up reply actions
Gomes now claims he didn’t say that.
I don’t believe him.
Check out Chicago sports coverage at SB Nation Chicago
you know what though
secretly, we are saying the same thing. Waino’s injury gives the Cubs a better chance at winning the division, Gomes was basically saying Waino’s injury gives the Reds a better chance at winning the division. This is such a non-story, IMO
Right.
But you don’t have to be so publicly happy about it.
Check out Chicago sports coverage at SB Nation Chicago
It seems that I just read
this was going to be one of the first times, Duncan had his 5 starters set going into spring training. And just that quick a stud goes down. You just never know.
As stated above, the Cards will still be very competitive though.
Tonight (opens can of worms)
I dislike the Garza trade a little bit less.
Buehrle
Anyone else see this?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/buehrle-would-accept-trade-for-right-fit.html
Hmmm … on the day after the Wairwright announcement … when the White Sox (rightfully) believe that they are a playoff caliber team … Why in the world would Buehrle be talking about “if the Sox are out of it”?
All I can say is that I hope he makes good on his threats that this will be his last season. The guy is a jerk.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 24, 2011 10:00 AM CST reply actions
Buehrle has talked many times about STL
being his dream situation. Cardinals fan growing up always wanted to pitch for the Cardinals, figured he’d do it at the end of his contract with the Sox. This isn’t surprising
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 24, 2011 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
If Buehrle is traded....
his 2012 option vests and tacks on an additional $1M to his $14M salary.
With the Cardinals stressing over re-signing Pujols, I don’t think it’s realistic to trade for Buehrle and add $15M to their payroll next season….and I doubt the White Sox would send any money in return for a 32 year old pitcher that has grown up with their team and is a lock for 200 IP.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
by TheBeerBaron on Feb 24, 2011 10:41 AM CST up reply actions
i dont think its at all likely
i’m just noting that Buehrle has talked about wanting to pitch in STL for a LONG time, so its not surprising the day after Wainwright’s injury news hits he starts talking about being open to a trade
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 24, 2011 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
No it's not surprising that he wants to pitch for StL
It’s just a low class thing for him to say this on the day after the Wainwright injury and when every White Sox player should be talking about winning the division, not what would happen if things go poorly.
I wish he’d just go to StL. I’d love it if the Cubs could get a few shots at him each year.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 24, 2011 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
He actually lives in
St. Charles, MO in the offseason…
"All I want is food and creative love" - Rusted Root
by TheRiot Police on Feb 24, 2011 12:52 PM CST up reply actions
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