Cubs Line-ups

by Hookers or Cake on Mar 31, 2011 3:10 PM CDT

Hey Everybody! This is my first post on Bleed Cubbie Blue. I run a blog called F**K Yeah Cubs and I did a little research on what the Cubs starting line up should be according to the stats.

vs RH

Fukudome RF
Byrd CF
Pena 1B
Rameriz 3B
Colvin LF
Soto C
Castro
Barney

Here are the stats for the Cubs players vs right handed pitching over the last 3 seasons

1. Fukudome RF - 1134AB - 38-ab/hr - .262BA - .374OB - .420SLG = .794OPS - .804 in 10’

2. M.Byrd CF   - 1058AB - 44-ab/hr - .289BA - .350OB - .441SLG = .791OPS - .717 in 10’

3. C. Pena 1B      - 944AB - 13-ab/hr - .239BA - .372OB - .522SLG = .894OPS - .759 in 10’

4. Ramiriez 3B   - 1035AB - 19-ab/hr - .238BA - .351OB - .500SLG = .857OPS - .722 in 10’

5. TColvin LF   - 250AB - 18-ab/hr - .256BA - .321OB - .492SLG = .813OPS

6. G. Soto C   - 840AB - 23-ab/hr - .249BA - .341OB - .445SLG = .786OPS - .795 in 10’

7. S.Castro SS    - 336AB - 168ab/hr - .286BA - .329OB - .372SLG = .701OPS

8. Barney 2B   -

The bench

Soriano LF   - 1051AB - 20 ab/hr - .250BA - .308OB - .461SLG = .769OPS - .764OPS in 10’

DeWitt IF      - 689AB - 57 ab/hr - .257BA - .330OB - .372SLG = .702OPS - .719OPS in 10’

J. Baker IF   - 430AB - 61 ab/hr - .247BA - .308OB - .365SLG = .673OPS - .302 in 66 AB

R. Johnson OF - 382AB - 55 ab/hr - .246BA - .295OB - .351SLG = .646OPS - .520 in 10’

A couple of things jump right out.

Fukudome is the lead off hitter vs. RH
Colvin should be the LF starter vs RH
Castro might not be suited to bat high in the order vs RH he has the same #'s as DeWitt
Byrd is not a 3 hole hitter
Rameriz and Pena should be 3/4 in some order
nice lefty - righty - lefty - righty - lefty - righty lineup

There 's room for argument - Thats what makes baseball fun!

So lets look at lefties - The Cubs hitters the last 3 years vs Lefties

1. SCastro SS - 127AB - 127ab/HR - .334BA .393OB .504SLG = .897OPS -

2. J.Baker 2B  - 301AB - 23 ab/HR - .316BA .361OB .545SLG = .906OPS -.945 in 10’

3. G. Soto C   - 307AB - 20 ab/HR - .306BA .411OB .524SLG = .935OPS -1.072 in 10

4. Soriano LF - 375AB - 18 ab/HR - .285BA .361OB .544SLG = .905OPS -.944 in 10’

5. M. Byrd CF   - 472AB - 26 ab/HR - .294BA .347OB .487SLG = .834OPS -.916 in 10’

6. TColvin RF  - 108AB - 18 ab/HR - .250BA .302OB .519SLG = .821OPS -

7. Ramirez 3B- 290AB - 22 ab/HR - .262BA .338OB .472SLG = .810OPS -.815 in 10’

8. C. Pena 1B   - 501AB - 18 ab/HR - .194BA .316OB .397SLG = .713OPS -.675 in 10’

The bench

Fukudome RF - 224AB - 56-ab/hr - .246BA .340OB .362SLG = .702OPS -.851 in 42ab in 10’

R. Johnson OF- 318AB - 64-ab/hr - .321BA .377OB .465SLG = .842OPS -.790 in 102ab in 10’

B De Witt IF - 168AB - 42-ab/hr - .268BA .354OB .405SLG = .759OPS -.660 in 79an in 10’

and just for fun Big Z vs both

C Zambrano P - 615AB - 29 ab/hr - .236BA - .244OB - .387SLG = .631OPS

vs Lefties is where you want to give Castro a chance to really boost his confidence.
You could hit Baker for Pena vs Lefties but we know that won't happen.
Soto is a lefties worst nightmare.
Zambrano has the 6th best HR% among Cubs players making him a valid pinch hitting candidate

Thoughts?

Poll

Who'll be the Cubs best hitter this year?

Marlon Byrd

25 votes

Aramis Ramirez

50 votes

Carlos Pena

5 votes

Geo Soto

27 votes

107 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Al will throw

out the stat that Z is 2 for 24 (or something atrocious like that) in PH situations so NO he is not a valid pinch hit option…otherwise not bad I think.

by hansman1982 on Mar 31, 2011 4:51 PM CDT reply actions

Well...

… the OP cited his HR rate in saying he’s a PH option.

Z has never hit a HR as a pinch hitter. 2-for-28, both singles, 14 strikeouts.

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by Al Yellon on Mar 31, 2011 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions

and I did a poor job of setting up

why I think he is NOT a PH option…

by hansman1982 on Mar 31, 2011 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions

2-28

Well common sense says Big Z is always gonna try way to hard and swing with everything he’s got in a pinch hit situation.
But remember historically he hits a homerun every 29 ab’s and he’s 2-28…
HE"S DUE! =)

by Hookers or Cake on Mar 31, 2011 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd rather have Z up...

than half of our punchless line-up. It’s pathetic.

by TheGrinch13 on Apr 3, 2011 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Ok this might not be your fault but

what’s up with the spelling of name “RAMIREZ”

Keep that Q Train rollin' in '11. Let's win it for Ronnie.

by mikegncb34 on Mar 31, 2011 6:12 PM CDT reply actions

no offense or anything but i was just bugging me

Keep that Q Train rollin' in '11. Let's win it for Ronnie.

by mikegncb34 on Mar 31, 2011 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Fourth time's a charm

GM's are in charge of Managers, not the other way around.

by shoemile on Mar 31, 2011 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions

While the research is well done and thorough,

you cant really use stats from 3 years ago to base your lineup on. A lot has changed since then.

I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been. Robert Plant 1975

by cmpody on Mar 31, 2011 10:57 PM CDT reply actions

3 year stats can be a more accurate portrait of a hitters

I originally only used 3 yr averages for cub hitters vs left handed pitchers.
Basically I had no idea how the 2011 cubs lineup should look vs lefties. And 1 year stats vs lefties usually is only 100 at bats if you’re a starter – back ups even less. So then I decided to do the same with Cubs vs Righties and include last years OPS so we can kinda see which way they are trending.
I think 3 year stats can be an accurate portrayal of a player in his prime. I’m sure one could weight it so the stats from 3 yrs ago don’t equal 1/3 but I feel it gives a larger picture of a hitter true capabilities. In MLB it seems anyone can have a good or bad year. just ask poor Rick Wilkins.
Marlon Byrd for instance hit .717 OPS vs RH last year and he’s 34. His 3 yr avg is .791 OPS I would assume if your batting Byrd #3 the Cubs are thinking closer to .800 OPS than a trending downward 34 yr old who boosted his stats last year by playing in a new league and feasting on lefties.

by Hookers or Cake on Apr 1, 2011 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Agreed re: Byrd. I'm not sure exactly what they're hoping for with him #3 in the lineup.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Apr 2, 2011 7:23 AM CDT up reply actions

I understand our logjam in the outfield...

but I really wish we could get Colvin in there everyday as opposed to playing the matchups.

I feel like we don’t have a full grasp of what he can do until he goes through his ups and downs being in the day to day lineup, regardless of a LHP or righty.

Unless we’re in the race, its almost a certainty that the outfielders on our roster won’t look the same come the trade deadline.

by EJThunder on Apr 1, 2011 6:32 PM CDT reply actions

Agree

well said Sir !

by If we only had Hubbs on Apr 1, 2011 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions

I would like to see baker play some first base against Lefties

by Notsnud on Apr 2, 2011 12:06 PM CDT reply actions

Actually, we should have signed (or kept) someone right-handed

who can play first base. A certain player with power, who can also play catcher, 3B, left or right field, comes to mind but he plays for the Orioles. Great general managing there!

by TheGrinch13 on Apr 3, 2011 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions

I've been very critical of Jim Hendry.

But I do agree, getting rid of Jake Fox was a solid move. Word is he has poor handwriting.

GM's are in charge of Managers, not the other way around.

by shoemile on Apr 4, 2011 3:15 AM CDT up reply actions

It was nice today (Sunday) to see Castro FINALLY lead off (where he belongs), but...

Quade still needs to take Marlon Byrd out of the three hole. The three hole is pretty much for your best hitter (a la Mauer, Pujols, Votto, McCutchen, etc) and Byrd is, by far, not our best hitter. I have nothing personal against Byrd as he plays hard but he has no business batting third. In fact, he wouldn’t bat third on any other team, including the Pirates, Royals, or Indians.

Also, why do we choose to stack so many righties together at the top of the line-up? I know Barney has speed but come on already. How about something like this?

Castro SS
Colvin RF (has no business being benched for Fukudome)
Ramirez 3B
Pena 1B
Soto C
Byrd CF
Soriano LF
Barney/DeWitt 2B

By the way, do we even have a pitching coach? Usually managers send one out to give instructions or a breather to pitchers when they’re having trouble, but I haven’t seen him yet.

by TheGrinch13 on Apr 3, 2011 2:40 PM CDT reply actions

Tough Game – Castro looks awesome. Colvin great throw – we’ll be ok.

We lost the game the moment Quade sent Reed Johnson to bat in the top of the ninth with Fukudome on the bench.
Reed had .252 OB% vs righties last year
Fukudome had .374%
Its real basic.

Fukudome needs to lead off vs Righties
Casto is playing like a world beater 2cnd
Ramirez 3rd & Pena 4th
Colvin had better numbers vs Soriano last year vs righties…
Anyone in their rightmind think Soriano is gonna all the sudden get better than he’s been the couple of years at age 35?
Colvin is better in the field – we know what we have in Soriano – lets at least see what we have in Colvin

by Hookers or Cake on Apr 3, 2011 4:30 PM CDT reply actions

Lineups

There must have been a reason why Fukudome didn’t play yesterday vs an RHP. Having to go with Johnson to start the bottom of the 9th was, I think, a lineup screw-up that occurred before the 9th inning. I don’t know the replacement in the lineup rules, but if they couldn’t put Johnson batting 7th then they shouldn’t have made the defensive replacement.

They need somebody other than Byrd hitting 3rd. Any reason why Castro wouldn’t work better batting 3rd?

by AboutTheCubs on Apr 4, 2011 10:55 AM CDT reply actions