Another Mock Draft
by cubsfan1 on Apr 16, 2011 6:27 AM CDT
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Baseball America just released their mid season top 50:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2011/2611568.html
Again this draft class is LOADED. You got guys sitting mid 1st round who would be top 3 in another year. The Cubs sitting #9 are in a position to nab a really good player. Here is my quick moch draft to see what could possibly be avaiable for us and it looks very promising. Things will change from now until draft day but I think this will be fun to see what's waiting in our future.
1. Pirates - 3B. Anthony Rendon - Callis called this guy super human and has said numerous times he would take Rendon over Bryce Harper.
2. Mariners - RHP Gerrit Cole - Could be better then Srasburg w/ better mechanics. About as close as you can get to surefire ace in the MLB draft as it gets.
3. D'backs - LHP Danny Hultzen - D'backs are in love w/ Hultzen and Mike Newman of scoutingthesally.com calls him the 2nd best pitcher he's scouted behind Julio Teheran. Newman said in an outing he saw Hultzen carried mid 90s stuff late into the game w/ a plus slider and CU.
4. Orioles - RHP Sonny Gray - Little torn here on what the O's would do sitting @4 but Gray is a polished SP who would give them a nice 1-2-3 punch w/ Britton/Matusz.
5. Royals - OF Bubba Starling - The Royals have proven they will spend large amounts of money on HS talent and Starling is from the area and has enormous upside.
6. Nationals - SS Francisco Lindor - With as much college talent tlaent as there is I wouldn't go Lindor but does make some sense for the Nats.
7. D'Backs - RHP Tony Zych - Again I could see the Dbacks going with Zych who is more of a 2nd rounder and should sign for cheaper then the average 7 pick. Can hit 98 w/ a good slider and would move fast.
8. Indians - LHP Jed Bradley - COuld go 4 to the O's maybe but has really improved his stock since the begining of the year. I'd love for the Cubs grab him if avaiable but not looking likely at this point. Good 3 pitch mix, command and polish. W/ Pomeranz/White/Materson would form a nice young staff.
So here we are @ 9 and there is a ton of good players still available here. I'll run down a handful of my favorites.
OF George Springer - Has slipped a bit this year but is starting to turn it on after a slow start. 18/22 BB/K with power speed combo and has the tools to be a premium defender in CF. Swing can get long but has dominated the last 2 years on the Cape which I know socuts put a lot of stock in. I have a hard time believing he'd be available @ 9 for the Cubs but if he is would be really hard to pass on.
RHP Trevor Bauer - A bit of Tim Lincecum in him has run his FB up to 98 this year. Good command to go w/
curveball, changeup, split-finger, slider and "reverse-slider". Bauer has grown on me this year and very well would be a great pick for us.
LHP Matt Purke - Draft stock is sliding because of inconsistent year so far. Has an emormous ceiling but even with that I'd be hard pressed to take a chance on him considering how much talent is avaiable. He also could return to school to try and improve draft status and may be prudent considering how ridiculously loaded this draft class is.
RHP Taylor Jungmann - The fastball sits in the low-90s and can touch 95. He also shows the foundation for a knock-out slider and a plus-changeup. His mechanics need some work, as he can get a little out of rhythm at times making his delivery look like his arms and legs are all over the place, but that’s nothing a little refining and maturation at the next level coudn't fix. Has been dominant this year.
RHP Dylan Bundy - Top HS arm has a mid 90's FB w/ 4 pitch mix and good mechanics. Not sure the Cubs would go HS considering how much college talent will be there for us.
Also in the running but imo not as likely as the players profiled above are CF Jackie Bradley Jr., RHP Matt Barnes, prep ams Archie Bradley and Daniel Norris.
Please discuss your opinion and add anyhting to the short reports I've posted.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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The Cubs
Outlook on this draft seems to be getting even harder to predict with top players like Purke and Springer struggling. While I’m not a huge fan of Springer, his plate discipline is encouraging. My ideal pick would be Bauer or Purke at this point. Its hard to go wrong with a polished college pitcher, especially like one who has led the NCAA in strikeouts the previous two years (Bauer) or a lefty who sits mid 90’s with a dirty slider and lots of physical projection left (Purke). It will be interesting to see what Wilken does, considering the majority of top talent that should be available at the #9 pick are college and HS arms.
by renocubfan on Apr 16, 2011 9:15 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Also
Mikie Mahtook sould be a guy we are watching out for. 10 HRs and 20 SBs ALREADY. Talk about a Wilken pick.
by renocubfan on Apr 16, 2011 9:21 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
RE:
Yeah i agree w/ Mahtook he’s been moving up mock drafts. I like him but I’m not sure he’s moved into top 10 consideration yet.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
Wilken is unpredictable
Tyler Colvin was in nobody’s top-13 in ’06
I'm wet nurse to a last-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!
He had substantial helium, though
Supposedly, a number of scouts had him pegged as a possible Top 20/Top 25 guy. That selection was a bit of a reach, but wasn’t out of nowhere.
Hayden Simpson, on the other hand…
by Outshined_One on Apr 16, 2011 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep
although apparently we weren’t the only team that had Simpson on their sleeper list.
What no one who saw him did, though,was talk to Baseball America or Keith Law or Jonathan Mayo or Kevin Goldstein. The teams who saw Simpson pitch wanted to keep him a secret.
by Josh Timmers on Apr 16, 2011 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm still not convinced
Colvin will amount to more than a serviceable MLB outfielder and fill in first-baseman. Good, but not good enough to push the Cubs over the top.
I have PMS & a GPS -- which means -- I am a bitch, and I will find you.
by cub in louies nest on Apr 17, 2011 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think
That I’d take Springer..it’s clear that our team lacks top of the line pitching and nowadays, pitching at all. The only position player I’d consider to take at all over a pitcher for us would be Bubba Starling, but I tend to believe he won’t be there, and if he was I’m not sure Cubs would even take him. I’d probably go this order on the pitchers Purke/Bauer/Bundy/Gray/Jungmann but that’s just because I’m a little higher on Bundy that some others, but I think we have to roll the dice on Purke if he somehow made it to us. He’s a potential ace and a lefty and honestly, I’d still be surprised if he makes it to us.
I think both Bradley Jr and Barnes are both more possible than Bundy.
Bundy doesn’t strike me as a top 10 guy in a draft this loaded with college talent.
With the guys available in this mock I'd go:
Purke
Springer
Barnes
Bradley Jr.
Jungmann
I hate this mock
It has none of the players I really want falling to us. Not to say that couldn’t happen.
But I’d go with a HS arm if the draft fell this way. I know that’s not Wiken’s MO, but I think you have to go Bundy in this case.
Don’t like Springer, don’t like Purke, don’t like Bradley Jr. Bauer is too odd. If you have to go college arm, I’d take Jungmann. His workload worries me, but I love everything else about him.
Jungmann
I want to come around on this guy. I agree that physically he’s exactly what you want in a starter.
My problem with him starts with his mechanics…I think he needs to lengthen his stride a little, get rid of that ridiculous and violent head movement, and basically stop setting up to kind of sling shot the ball across his body.
While that stuff exists…I’m not so sure they’re going to stick around as issues and everyone seems to love him despite that (no one even brings it up really). Should I just ignore and jump on the bandwagon? Has anyone seen him this year and maybe noticed he’s a little bit more cleaned up? The guy definitely seems like he could fit into the Wilken plan but I hate ugly mechanics out of such a high first round pick…
How easy are mechanics to correct?
I have PMS & a GPS -- which means -- I am a bitch, and I will find you.
by cub in louies nest on Apr 17, 2011 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions
i have watched probably 20 of Jungmann's starts in his tenure at Texas...
I like him a lot..I really do…but in this draft, I think you guys can do better. His K/BB ratio has improved substantially this year…In 72.2 he has walked 9 and k’d 63…e.g. Bauer in 73.2 is at 23/110…I think he is up there with anyone else as far as the mental side of pitching and that has a lot to do with his .173 BAA..He also is helped out tremendously where he pitches. The park in Austin has always been mammoth but with the new bats it is playing even larger and Jungmann has supreme confidence that he can keep it in the park.
I don’t really like the mechanics either..they are unorthodox. Great arm speed, great pitchability. Big head jerk… He has 3 good pitches(not great) and changes speeds exceptionally well. Great fastball command with little effort to his delivery…
What about Purke don't you like?
Besides his early season struggles? It would be easier to take a Hultzen or Jed Bradley over him right now, but Purke has the ace potential that neither of the other two lefties do. And not sure why Bauer being odd should hold his stock back? Jungmann has “odd” mechanics and has put up inferior numbers to Bauer the past couple of years. Bundy’s workload is frightening.
by renocubfan on Apr 16, 2011 2:02 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Let me be clear here
If we were sitting at #20 and Purke fell to us, I’d be real happy. But he’s inconsistent and he’s got a low arm slot. If his velocity comes back to where it was . . . well, I still wouldn’t want him at #9. I agree with you on Hultzen’s ceiling, but I think Bradley has ace potential.
Bauer’s also got a frightening workload. He’s been over 120 pitches five times this season including a 134 pitch CG. The whole oddness thing is combined with other things I’ve heard (like “don’t draft me if you’re planning on messing with it”) that makes me think he’s hard-headed and resistant to coaching. That’s a makeup thing and I admit that I could be completely wrong on that. If we take Bauer, I hope that Wilken checks that out and determines that I’m all wet on that point
I’m going to admit I don’t know much about Bundy’s workload. But I’ve heard the reports on his stuff and it’s top of the rotation.
by Josh Timmers on Apr 16, 2011 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
RE: Workloads/Mechanics
Mechanics and workloads are way over blown to some extent imo. Lincecum’s mechanics were seriously scrutinized coming out of college. David Price’s workload was also heavily talked about coming out of college. Both have proven doubters wrong thus far. As far as Bundy’s workload that scares me more then Bauer’s. Remember how abused in HS KerryWood was?
The thing w/ Bauer and this huge is he is big about long toss. For most pitcher’s long toss is 120 feet. Bauer regularly throws 300+ feet. Check out the link for him in BA’s top 50 “UCLA Aces”. I think Bauer understands what he’s doing and what he’s capable of. I like Bauer.
Purke as I read back and I’m talking reports last year when things were going good are full of questions. I’m surprised that I never even stoped to think this over. For a guy who was considered an elite talent for 2011 the doubts/questions/concerns were there last year. I’ve soured on Purke. I’m w/ Josh if he fell to mid to late 1st and we were picking there then yes a great gamble but not @ 9.
What this comes down to is a ptichers arm is an enigma. You just don’t know how a pitcher is going to handle workloads and sometimes mechanics no matter how unorthodx may work for a guy. Look at Prior. Remember the pre-draft scouting reports how his mechanics were perfect and he would never get hurt. Yes we now know he threw to much with his arm and didn’t use his lower body enough.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I kinda like Bauer too
He has an odd lower body hitch in his delivery but otherwise looks mechanically sound. I really like the way he explodes off the rubber throwing his entire body into every pitch. That said this delivery might be a bit too violent? It would be nice if he could duplicate his velocity without all the labor. Your point about Prior’s fluid motion is well taken
I'm wet nurse to a last-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!
It's not just long toss
The guy goes into the bullpen between innings during starts to keep warm. He also plays for a team that is notorious about not giving a crap about pitch counts. Bauer’s having a great year and could be an absolute stud if he’s healthy, but it seems like he does everything he can to tempt the pitch count gods.
by Outshined_One on Apr 16, 2011 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
i think you are overestimating workloads of college pitchers that throw once a week
especially with Bauer…..he is unique which will sour many teams…but he is carving up D1 hitters like a ginsu knife right now…..73.2 Ip 37 H 23 bb/110K
Noted
But, you know who else had a low arm slot with a similar repitoire? Randy Johnson. That’s not to say that Purke has that type of ceiling, but all things considered I don’t see why his arm slot would be too much of a concern as he’s had enormous success with it in the past.
You may be right on Bradley, but his stuff doesn’t exactly scream overpowering. I think he’s a great #2 in the majors, but what do we know.
If that’s the case with Bauer, then I hope Wilken knows what he’s getting into. The potential is there and I think his style translates extremely well to pro baseball. Plus, from everything I have heard he works his ass off and takes his training very seriously. A lot of these guys can’t say the same.
I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but I know that Bundy’s been worked extremely hard over the last few years including this year. I agree with you that he has front of the rotation stuff. For me, I still take Norris from the crop of HS pitchers.
RE:Bradley
THis is my pick if he was available when we pick. He may not have ace potential but I think he’s such a safe #2 on a 1st division team. Callis says that Bradley’s stuff is better then Hultzen’s but Hultzen has better polish/command. Bradley’s control was outstanding on the Cape last hyear though it’s been pedestrian this year I think he could have above average command as a pro. Callis also notes that Hultzen and Bradley are very very close. For a great scouting report on Bradley check out Mike Newman’s game notes on scoutingthesally.com
http://scoutingthesally.com/2011-major-league-baseball-draft-prospect-jed-bradley-georgia-tech/
BTW for anyone interested Mike Newman offers a personal scouting service for a 1 time fee for the year of $17.95. I use this and it is awsome. You get emails and if you choose phone calls about prospects. He’s profiled amny top college draft prospects, “sally” prospects and does some Tennessee stuff as wellas possibly some Daytona guys. I’ll admit this service is more for guys who follow prospects year round no matter the team but none the less a good service.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I was watching
the Georgia game today and Michael Palazzone looks like he would be a good pick later on in the draft. He was a 32nd round pick by the Indians last season, I believe. He looks much better than last season though.
The Cubs had a history
of developing pitchers but not position players until Wilkens arrived. Now the minors are loaded with quality hitters. Meanwhile our system is lacking in the number of quality starters. My ideal pick would be a bulky hard throwing lefty with god control numbers. If we don’t draft one, there is little chance we’ll be able to acquire one through a trade. If Bradley falls to us, I bite. Otherwise I take my shot at the best RHP available. Purke hasn’t had numbers that convince me he’s a dominant starter in the bigs. His WHIP this year is an unconvincing 1.25.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Keith Law tweeted tonight
that a scout told him that Purke couldn’t hit 90 after the third inning tonight. He hit 93 once in the second, but it was all downhill after that.
I just don’t think he’s a top ten pick anymore. If he can’t get back up to 93, I’m not sure he’s a first round pick anymore.
I really don't see him leaving TCU anymore
He still has his junior and senior seasons to gain back the stock that has obviously deteriorated this spring.
Scouts are speculating
he’s got a shoulder injury.
by Josh Timmers on Apr 17, 2011 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Hultzen
It seems I overstated Hultzen’s stuff. According to scoutingthesally.com scouting service his SL was average to above average and CU flashed plus.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I keep thinking about this scenario
If I had to guess, I think the Cubs would take Mikie Mahtook. He reminds me of Brett Jackson in a number of ways. He’s a fantastic athlete with lingering questions about his bat. He can handle CF, but there are some concerns about whether he’ll eventually have to move to RF, where his arm will play nicely. He has some issues with strikeouts, but not nearly as bad as Jackson. I’d be fine with the pick.
As for my choice…egh. Barnes and Jungmann have mechanics that bother me. Bauer’s workload scares the crap out of me. I don’t know enough about the top HS pitchers to have a preference, although as far as the Cubs’ system goes, it’d be nice to see some high quality guys at lower levels. Springer/Mahtook/Bradley are all quality guys, but none are particularly inspiring.
I guess I’d go with Springer and hope he develops good enough pitch recognition skills to balance out his long swing.
Mahtook
Wouldn’t be a terrible pick. It depends on who’s on the board at the time. He does remind me of Brett Jackson a lot though, and I think we could get someone with some higher upside at #9.
I know you never draft for need, at least not in the first round, but we’ve got three center fielders right now that I’m really high on in Jackson, Ha and Szczur.
by Josh Timmers on Apr 17, 2011 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd throw Rubi Silva in there as well
But none of the 3 would prevent me from selecting Bubba Starling if he is there.
I agree
if Bubba Starling is there I think the Cubs should take him. He’s the only position player that has a chance to be there that I would take over a pitcher if I was the Cubs. That being said, if we take a pitcher, I really hope he has the upside of an ace, we really need it. I’m hoping for one of Starling/Bundy/Norris and an outside two of Gray/Bauer. Purke is sounding pretty rough right now.
Starling is definately intriguing
I was hoping Bubba would leverage the threat of Nebraska football & Scott Boros to price himself out of the top-8. However the Kansas City Star has reported he’d forgo football for a $5M bonus which is unlikely to scare off the Royals holding pick #5. That said I’m not gonna lose any sleep, with our luck we’d select him and he’d turn into Ryan Harvey.
I'm wet nurse to a last-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!
Mahtook
would be a waste of the 9th pick in this deep draft and I’d be really disappointed if that’s who we took.
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