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Interesting fact: he's playing Double-A again.

about 1 year ago Alyellontoppscard_tiny Al Yellon 39 comments 0 recs  | 

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Happy I don’t have a crystal ball b/c I might not like to see his career in 3-5 years

''"I always thought I was the most competitive person out there. I never thought I'd find anybody more competitive until I met him.'' Ryan Dempster talking about Ted Lilly

by Madison Cub Fan on Apr 9, 2011 1:29 PM CDT reply actions  

I think you're way overrating Archer.

Could he become a good major league pitcher? Sure. But that’s far from a sure thing.

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by Al Yellon on Apr 9, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

True.

Still concerns about his control. If Garza turns into our best pitcher though, it doesn’t really matter how well he does down the road.

Tyler Andrew Davis - Born 4.5.11
A Cub fan forever more... just like his dad.

by Unique on Apr 9, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

*Still have concerns

Tyler Andrew Davis - Born 4.5.11
A Cub fan forever more... just like his dad.

by Unique on Apr 9, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

With all due respect Al

How is he MIGHT have a good career in 3-5 over rating him?

''"I always thought I was the most competitive person out there. I never thought I'd find anybody more competitive until I met him.'' Ryan Dempster talking about Ted Lilly

by Madison Cub Fan on Apr 9, 2011 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Your post seems to assume...

… that he’ll be better than Garza. That’s by no means a sure thing.

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by Al Yellon on Apr 9, 2011 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

You sure got a lot out of one simple sentence

Of me wondering if a former Cub minor leaguer might have a good career.

''"I always thought I was the most competitive person out there. I never thought I'd find anybody more competitive until I met him.'' Ryan Dempster talking about Ted Lilly

by Madison Cub Fan on Apr 9, 2011 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, maybe.

Seemed like you were saying that it would be bad, even if the Cubs got value from the deal.

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by Al Yellon on Apr 9, 2011 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nah I'm not the subtle Al :)

''"I always thought I was the most competitive person out there. I never thought I'd find anybody more competitive until I met him.'' Ryan Dempster talking about Ted Lilly

by Madison Cub Fan on Apr 9, 2011 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Fair enough!

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by Al Yellon on Apr 10, 2011 7:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

He seems like a good kid.

Hope he doesn’t turn in to a Nolasco type guy, though. That trade still hurts.

Tyler Andrew Davis - Born 4.5.11
A Cub fan forever more... just like his dad.

by Unique on Apr 9, 2011 1:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Yes.

That was one of Jim Hendry’s worst moves.

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by Al Yellon on Apr 9, 2011 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

As he said

He’s been through this before. He k nows he gets traded because teams want him, not because teams don’t want him.

I could see him ending up as Tampa’s closer, actually.

by Josh Timmers on Apr 9, 2011 3:24 PM CDT reply actions  

that appears to be his quickest route to the bigs

I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been. Robert Plant 1975

by cmpody on Apr 9, 2011 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

+1

Been saying this…he’s got closer stuff and he’s a bulldog type pitcher on the mound…could be a KRod type if things went that far.

by SenorGato on Apr 10, 2011 12:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

part

of the game .you get traded. or you leave for a big fat contract with someone else. no need to get mad.

by NOMAR on Apr 10, 2011 6:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Only problem

Only problem I have is with the headline. He harbors no ill will? Why would he?

Nothing happens unless it's first a dream

by puckishcubsfan on Apr 10, 2011 11:24 AM CDT reply actions  

I think the Cubs will regret Lee more than Archer...

but luckily Lee plays the same position a fellow future star plays for the Cubs.

by SenorGato on Apr 10, 2011 8:31 PM CDT reply actions  

You can try to make yourself feel better about Lee by saying the Cubs are set at short

but the idea was, one of them would move over to second filling two up-the-middle positions. Better two filled with good players than one, I think.

by the nth on Apr 11, 2011 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

This was clearly a desperation trade

by a GM desperately clinging to his job.

I'm wet nurse to a last-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!

by Eisman57 on Apr 11, 2011 6:57 AM CDT reply actions  

Not at all.

In time Cubs fans will come to like and even respect Matt Garza. I’m surprised that no one has mentioned anything about the stuff he’s shown in his two starts…against Pittsburgh he was throwing 96 with a slider in the high 80’s…and he barely used his curveball. Gave up talent to get talent, and Garza is by far our most talented pitcher in the rotation right now.

by SenorGato on Apr 11, 2011 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

he's also giving up a 40% line drive rate right now

talent and stuff has never been the question with Garza. The question has always been whether he could turn that elite stuff into elite production. In Tampa Bay his production was aided significantly by defense and park, things he currently won’t have working in his favor in Chicago.

It’s too early to make judgments on Garza’s move to the NL, but just as exciting as the big K Rate the first two starts, is how concerning it is that batters continue to square him up so easily

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 11, 2011 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

I hope that wasn't his *best* stuff.

He’s giving up about 2 baserunners an inning, almost 15 hits/9, and a 40% line drive rate.

So hopefully, he either has better stuff on the way, or better placement and execution.

Because through the spring and the first 2 starts, he’s been a guy who strikes out a ton of hitters, while generally getting smacked around the park.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Apr 11, 2011 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

That was his best stuff. Best results...not so much...though

K’ing a ton of guys upon entering the less offensive league IMO bodes well.

I’ve watched Garza since he got traded to the Rays and his stuff looks to be sick nasty awesome so far…best I’ve seen. He also looks like he’s in the best shape of his young career so far, and his mechanics are a little more toned down (it seems). Man am I optimistic on this guy.

by SenorGato on Apr 11, 2011 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

its called confirmation bias

and its present on both ends of this discussion

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 12, 2011 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

i said its on both ends of the discussion

try reading what i write, it may help you understand it.

I’ve been pessimistic on Garza becoming an ace, thus i’m focused on the LD Rate through 2 starts

You’re optimistic on Garza becoming an ace, thus you’re focused on the K Rate

both are EXTREMELY small samples and inconclusive

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 12, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I understand perfectly well what you said, sir.

It’s more of a matter of common sense dictating that strikeouts translate well…even over two starts…much moreso than LD%. Not only that, but you know that two games is a much crappier for sample size for LD% than it’ll ever be for K rate…not because the 15/9 will become his standard, but because a pitcher who misses bats is significantly more likely to have success moving forward than not.

I’m pretty sure you know damn well that taking a 40% LD rate over two starts to show a guy is struggling is mostly hacky. He has been getting hit more than usual, but 1. it’s not even hard contact and 2. he’s still missing bats.

by SenorGato on Apr 12, 2011 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

its a small sample for ANY stat-mongering

for example, in his career you know how many 2-start periods Garza has posted a K Rate above 12 K/9?

3 other times.

2007 – July 29-August 4
2009- Sept 19-26th
2010 – April 23-29th

These two starts also happen to come against two of the top 10 teams in K’s last season.

There are a whole lot of things to be excited about and you named them – the K Rate is huge, the good command early on, also very good

but there are also some things to be concerned about: 5 XBH’s in 12 2/3 innings isn’t good. a 40% LD Rate is unheard of

all-in-all its TWO starts so drawing conclusions on either side is fairly ridiculous. You’re adding more emphasis to the things that support your beliefs as am I. His improved K Rate is no more or less impt than his horrific LD Rate. They’re both oddities in a small sample size

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 12, 2011 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is where the actually baseball part comes into play...

In an earlier post I mention that I’ve actually seen Garza pitch before this year and not just spent the winter nitpicking the crap out of his stats in the AL from Fangraphs because he cost a couple more non-Major league talent than it “should have” according to guys with opinions.

Like I said, I’ve watched Garza for a long time and his entire time with the Devil Rays. Physically, he looks like he spent alot of time on his legs, didn’t worry so much bulk (known as a gym rat with the Rays and tended to look a little hulking in the upper body), and seriously improved his flexibility on the mound. He’s in the best condition I’ve ever seen him in.

Then there’s the stuff…he’s using his slider more often in general and his cutter even more often against lefties. His fastball was hitting as high as 96 maybe even 97 on opening day, and it also looks like he’s set on using his 92-93 MPH two seamer more often as I’ve seen that alot more often than I expect from him so far. He hasn’t really brought out his curveball or changeup yet either…I think he might feature his curveball less here but who knows…but yeah really the guy looks like he’s ready to take a step forward.

If my arguments for Garza sat only in the world of numbers then I would not have wasted my time or yours in these little debates of ours. Since no stats are actually important but are still worthy of being brought up, what do you think of his 40% GB rate and 14/7 GB/FB ratio? I mean we’re arguing bs numbers apparently, and you really disliked the flyball rate coming in.

Also, enough with the ace thing…I have never said he’s a true ace, which is what I think you think I think. He’s a high end major league pitching talent capable of pitching in the 2nd spot of a really high end rotation…a Matt Cain to some mystery man’s Tim Lincecum.

by SenorGato on Apr 12, 2011 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

oh you've SEEN him?

see i had never seen him before…

and right his velocity is up… on a hot stadium gun…

2010 FB velocity – 93.3 mph
2011 FB velocity – 93.3 mph

also, he’s throwing his curveball and changeup MORE than last year (as is he is with his slider, which you correctly noted)

but i’m glad your eyes are telling you all the right things

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 13, 2011 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

You win this round.

But the war is not won yet!

Garza for Cubs ace in 2011!!!

by SenorGato on Apr 13, 2011 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, and the cutter is new.

As is the emphasis on the slider as his out breaking pitch.

As far as the fastball velocity, if you saw Garza last year he was topping out at 94-95 and it was straight as an arrow. You’ve seen your two starts and got your Fangraphs page open I know, but the flexibility, conditioning, and general stuff is up a notch IMO. Ignore that as you will. Fangraphs is on your side!

BTW: No disrespect to Fangraphs, aka the best numbers/fan oriented baseball site since BTF.

by SenorGato on Apr 13, 2011 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

More fun numbers:

 - His BABIP in his 2 starts is .541. The past 3 years? It’s been in the 270’s.

- LOB% is around 65%…Last 3 seasons? Around 74%. Two so far…I expect to hear that these two are because of TBs D and amazing pitchers park.

- FIP? .61. xFIP? 1.28.

- He’s using his changeup and curveball a whole 1.3% more than last year. His slider? 13.5% in ‘10 to 23.9% in 2011 so far. He’s using his slider SIGNIFICANTLY more than usual.

- Slider velocity is up by at least a full MPH.

- He’s throwing both his changeup and curveball harder than in recent years.

- GB rate…up from last year’s 35% to 40%, right in between the 39 and 41 he put up in ’09 and ’08.

Yep…things seem to be looking up for young Garza.

by SenorGato on Apr 13, 2011 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

A 40% line drive rate through two starts?

My Jah man. That sounds pretty scary…especially with 12 singles given up in his first start.

I’m less worried about this guy than pretty much anyone on this staff…except Dempster, who lacks Garza’s upside, youth, and stuff.

by SenorGato on Apr 11, 2011 10:25 AM CDT reply actions  

Couple reasons:

- When young pitchers come up and start striking out guys everyone’s naturally a little more optimistic. He’s showing the ability to miss bats. That’s a major skill for high end pitching talent. He isn’t a rookie pitcher obviously, but I’m simply applying that logic. He won’t keep up 15 K’s per 9, but the raw stuff I saw him from screamed strikeout stuff. Then logically you’d think a power pitcher would be able to strike out more guys in the NL than the AL…especially since we’re talking about a pitcher from the AL East.

- His career LD% isn’t even 20%.

- 12 of the 20 hits are hits I know off the top of my head didn’t go for XBHs.

- Despite a 40% LD% he’s kept the ball in the yard in his two starts. 0 HRs.

by SenorGato on Apr 12, 2011 2:30 PM CDT reply actions  

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