Wall Street Journal : "Wait 'Til Next Year Cubs Fans"

Major League Baseball proposed a rule change last month that would expand the number of playoff teams to 10 from eight, as early as next year. The idea was to create competition for more teams further into the season.

Some traditionalists howled, and argued the game is already gloriously unpredictable. Baseball's supremacy is determined during six grueling months, culminating in the pennant race of August and September. Anything can happen.

But the numbers say they're wrong. Much of the drama of the season is pretty much over after 50 games—by June 1. By then, about one-third of the teams are out of it; another half dozen will join them if they don't get hot quickly.

about 1 year ago Archie 42 comments 3 recs |

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Article goes on from there

to talk about correlations between records and etc.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on May 20, 2011 9:29 AM CDT reply actions

Records at different times of the season I mean

Wow. I didn’t get much sleep last night. Sorry.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on May 20, 2011 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions

Records...

If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.

by eths on May 20, 2011 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions

Sorry,

I’ll beg to differ. There are few things in life (or at least sport) more exciting and dramatic than a late-season pennant race. Especially as you can usually count on at least one middling team getting scorching hot around that time to make it really interesting.

But I will agree on the point that you usually are the team that you’re going to be after 50 or so games, barring a major catalyst.

by Damen Jackson on May 20, 2011 9:32 AM CDT reply actions 4 recs

As always, spot on.

Recommended.

"I'm not a broadcaster! I'm me!"--Ron Santo

by chilango2 on May 20, 2011 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions

Thanks man..

And nice to hear from you again. Been too long. We’re going to have to catch a game this summer, and swap stories.

by Damen Jackson on May 20, 2011 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions

Damen...

… hope to see you at Wrigley this summer, too.

Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation's Baseball Nation

by Al Yellon on May 20, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions

Definitely,

I’ll ping you in advance on some dates. You may have to break down, and come hang with us in the box seats for a game though. My treat.

by Damen Jackson on May 20, 2011 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions

Anytime sir.

Let me know what works for you. Same e-mail address.

"I'm not a broadcaster! I'm me!"--Ron Santo

by chilango2 on May 20, 2011 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions

Damon

I agree with you. It is one of the reasons that I am in favor of making the change to 10 playoff teams. I think that one of the things that really hurts baseball on the fan side is that there are fans of many teams who are just checked out come late August or September because their teams doesn’t really have a realistic shot at a playoff spot. I know that I tend to pay less attention to our Cubs late in the year when they haven’t done well and realistically don’t have a good shot at much of anything. If they get hot I will re-engage beyond looking at box scores and tracking individual performances. 10 teams would open up the playoff races a bit and give more teams a realistic shot at the post season as well as make winning the division a more valuable advantage.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on May 20, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions

Well,

This is probably where we have to venture down different roads. I’m not a fan of more teams in the playoffs. I think it minimizes the quality of the product, invites less fan interest throughout the regular season as a whole, and to be frank, further encourages owners to put a “good enough” product on the field, rather than legitimate contenders. Yeah, some fans might dig it that they’re favorite club is playing meaningful games in August, but if you’re a .500 club, how meaningful are they really?

by Damen Jackson on May 20, 2011 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 6 recs

Well said and rec'd.

You wanna make the playoffs?…Win your division OR be the best of the rest.

I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen. ~Bob Lemon, 1981

by Easy Ed on May 20, 2011 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions

or be the 2nd best of the rest

which is what will happen. Its all about $$$ folks, nothing more and nothing less. No matter what most fans may think, baseball is 1st and foremost a business. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 12 playoff teams in another 10-15 years……

by magicblue on May 22, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions

If it gets the Cubs to a World Series title...

I don’t care about limping into the playoffs as long as they play lights out in the playoffs. Isn’t that all we should care about?

RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010) and Ron Santo (February 25, 1940-December 2, 2010).
If you disagree with me in any way, you are wrong.

by Ace Venom on May 20, 2011 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Let me ask you a question...

As you look over the NBA playoff slate, were there any #7 or #8 seeds that you thought had a snowball’s chance of making it to the Finals? A #6? Hell, even a #5?

Expanding a league’s playoff system to a bulk of your franchises does little more than beef up your TV deal, and snooker fans into getting excited about teams that stink. And even then, long-term, fans tune out the regular season, as it eventually approaches irrelevance. Maybe that’s okay if you’re the NBA trying to fill 18,000-seat arenas over an 82-game schedule. Highly questionable if you’re involved in a field sport over a 162-game slate. What are you gonna do, play games in February? November? What kind of fan turnout you think MLB gets when Opening Day is starting March 15 in Cleveland?

No skin off my nose either way, but I wish more leagues would start worrying about excellence, and stop embracing this “We’re all winners” nonsense. It does nothing besides protect entrenched interests (managers, coaching staffs, TV executives), and plays us as fans collectively for fools.

by Damen Jackson on May 20, 2011 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

I agree with you...

but would add that the playoffs are dramatically different between the NBA and MLB. Upsets are hard to come by in the NBA, but a hot pitcher or two can make for a dramatic run in the MLB.

by Kansas25 on May 20, 2011 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Not when it becomes a 10-team field

In each league.

by Damen Jackson on May 20, 2011 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm with you on it devaluing the regular season...

and allowing teams to form pseudo-contenders, but I do think that it’d be possible for a team ranked below 4/5 to win it all.

by Kansas25 on May 20, 2011 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Lower Seeded Teams in the NBA

The #6 seeded 1995 Houston Rockets won the NBA championship.
The #7 seeded 1987 Seattle Supersonics made it to the Western Conference Finals.
The #8 seeded 1999 New York Knicks won the Eastern Conference.

Generally, lower seeded teams don’t even make it to the conference finals. I wish the #8 seeded Grizzlies this season had done that.

2011 - The 103rd time is the charm.

by memphiscub on May 20, 2011 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Indeed.

And two of those are somewhat deceiving, as the 1995 Rockets had a midseason trade to acquire Clyde Drexler, so their record was misleading. And the 1999 Knicks would have most likely been ranked much higher but it was a Strike-shortened season.

by Kansas25 on May 20, 2011 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Fair Points

Even the #8 seeded Grizzlies this season were 46-36 in the regular season. It’s not as if the Grizzlies were a 38-44 team limping into the playoffs on a vicious losing streak.

2011 - The 103rd time is the charm.

by memphiscub on May 23, 2011 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Also, even though he played in 6 games...

it could be pointed out that Ginobili missed a game 1 loss and wasn’t 100% the entire series.

by Kansas25 on May 23, 2011 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Maybe not the finals, but the #8 seeded Grizzlies beat a #1 seed and took the #2 seed to 7 games this year.

the Packers and Steelers have gone on to win the Super Bowl as WC teams where they both played all of their games on the road. Countless WC teams in baseball have won or at least made it to the WS. What makes you think that a 2nd WC team couldn’t do the same, especially one coming out of the AL East?

What are you gonna do, play games in February? November? What kind of fan turnout you think MLB gets when Opening Day is starting March 15 in Cleveland?

Oh please, that’ll never happen and you know it. All MLB has to do is simply get rid of most off days between playoff games and the season and post-season will all be finished before November. You could even expand the divisional round to 7 games and still finish before November with minimal off days during the playoffs.

I wish more leagues would start worrying about excellence

That’s just not feasible. Without major contraction in all professional sporting leagues, there simply aren’t enough elite athletes that play any one sport to field elite teams. Big market teams certainly can because of their larger revenue streams.

by magicblue on May 22, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Tiny quibble...

The Thunder are the #4 seed, not #2, not that it matters.

And please oh please eliminate all the off-days in the postseason. It’s ridiculous.

by Kansas25 on May 23, 2011 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Bull.

Memphis had a very legitimate shot. They destroyed the #1 seed, San Antonio, and came within a few shots of beating Oklahoma.

Wild card teams in the NFL and NHL win all the time.

Teams that get off to a slow start should not be eliminated come mid season. I still feel that the % of teams making the playoffs in the NBA and NHL is excessive. However, the % in MLB is so low that it hurts the final product.

by nickler on May 27, 2011 1:28 AM CDT up reply actions

i think people misinterpret these types of posts

They view it as a message to suck the hope out of other fans and that’s really not the point

It doesn’t mean stop following the season, its over, its impossible to get hot late. It means its extremely UNLIKELY to happen. It’s creating a framework for possibilities not making an absolute statement

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 20, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

the reason I rec'd the post

was because of the statements of Eckersley and others that if the players feel out of it by June 1 they become dispirited and dont play as well/hard - going to 10 teams will give a few more teams hope later into the season which should equal better baseball…

I dont care as long as they stop the tradition of not pitting 1 vs 4 if within the same division…I wonder how many of the WS WC teams in the last 10 years have been able to play the #2 team and make it that way

by hansman1982 on May 20, 2011 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions

well said

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by Cubbie-Tim on May 30, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions

format

If they would design the format correctly, I would be in favor of it. Having the 2 WC teams play a best of 5 & then have the winner play the #1 seed of the 3 divisions would be the fairest way. At least then it would reward a team to finish with the best div. record.

"It's a funny old world. Man's lucky if he gets out of it alive." W.C. Fields

by KedzieKid on May 20, 2011 10:25 AM CDT reply actions

even a best of three would work

Maybe a 1 game playoff, but I would prefer a best of 3. Would have to be 1 game, 2 game home format, though. not, 1-1-1. Just thinking logistically.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on May 20, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions

I am shocked... shocked that lousy teams basically can mail-in the last 100 games of a baseball season...

…Of course, the early-elimination of those unworthy clubs always has been a fundamental part of the formula that made baseball great from 1876 through 1993, before player greed, media money and demands, and owner acquiescence made over-expansion and multi-level playoffs a financial imperative. The ever-expanding casino-ball tournaments now staged in October and November to decide which team gets to call itself “champion” make a joke of the regular season.

"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62

"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64

by ernaga on May 20, 2011 10:39 AM CDT reply actions

Did the Cubs player on the top picture have to be MB?

Really? I know this is the WSJ, but even they could use a disgruntled ARam or a lofting Soriano for that collage.

"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.

by RiskyBusiness on May 20, 2011 12:05 PM CDT reply actions

I thought that was Pena.

by Dcr18 on May 20, 2011 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Maybe

But I saw those arms up in the air and thought MB.

"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.

by RiskyBusiness on May 20, 2011 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions

not good

imagine the cubs get to the playoffs and gt knocked out in 2 games. if you cant do a best of 5 then this is stupid.

by NOMAR on May 21, 2011 8:45 AM CDT reply actions

So let me get this straight

If a team plays below .500 ball for one-third of the season, their chances of making the playoffs decrease?

You learn something new every single freakin’ day.

"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root

by Clutch16 on May 21, 2011 2:13 PM CDT reply actions

Amazing, isn't it, how it all adds up...

Take this year’s Cubs and compare the current 20-24 record after 44 games to any other Cubs team of the last 60 years. You’ll find that in 26 of those previous 60 years, the Cubs were either at or below 20-24 at this point. And, of those 26 clubs that got off to a bad start, 25 of them finished below .500, with 24 well below break-even and most in the 90+ loss “historically-bad” category.

The first of the two exceptions occurred in 1979, with Durocher-disciple Herman Franks managing an 80-82 record, while the second, of course, happened in 2007, as the Lou Piniella Miracle unfolded to produce the Cubs only playoff appearance in a year that began poorly. I’m afraid that with a rookie manager and hands-on newbie owner at the controls this year, that Pat Hughes and Bette Davis line about seat belts seems most appropriate.

"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62

"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64

by ernaga on May 22, 2011 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions

Herman Franks quit on that 1979 team with a week left in the season.

Said he was fed up with the players. Franks had a 78-77 record; Joe Amalfitano managed the rest of the season, going 2-5.

Here are some quotes from Franks when he quit:

One day after resigning as Cubs manager, Franks, 65, called his players “whiners” and Bill Buckner “nuts” in a rambling interview. The final straw, Franks said, was the “constant whining” of reserve outfielder Mike Vail.

“I just got tired of being around him,” Franks said. “There isn’t enough money in the world to pay me to manage if I had to look at that face every day.”

Franks said Vail “made me sick.” He wasn’t all that crazy about Barry Foote either, turned off by the beefy catcher’s constant admonitions about doing things “the Phillies’ way.” But Franks saved his best shots for Buckner, whom he termed a phony.

“There haven’t been many people in baseball who have fooled me, but I have to admit that Buckner was one of them,” Franks said. "I thought he was the All-American boy. I thought he was the kind of guy who’d dive in the dirt to save ballgames for you. What I found out, after being around him for a while is that he’s nuts. He doesn’t care about anything but getting a hit. He doesn’t care about the team. All he cares about is Bill Buckner.

“Most of the problem was that he just couldn’t handle (Dave) Kingman’s success this season. Buckner wanted to be the big guy. And when Kingman had the great year, Buckner couldn’t take it.”

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by Al Yellon on May 22, 2011 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions

In light of those quotes, the "comeback" from a 20-24 start seems all the more amazing...

…Apparently Herman was doomed to fail in a world of free-agency. On the other hand, Barry Foote obviously was ahead of his time in recommending “the Phillies’ Way,” which worked pretty well for us in ’84 and ’89. Also, it seems sending Billy Buck to Boston may have been another key to the ’84 half-pennant, for more reasons than simply bringing Eck to Chicago.

Other than the performance of Sutter and Reuschel, do you remember any other keys to the Cubs ‘79 respectability – maybe getting rid of Murcer? I remember sitting out in right field early that year in a game where J.R. Richard, the Zambrano of the ’70’s, hit a home run to give Houston a narrow lead. Then, I think it was Terry Puhl who doubled over Murcer’s head, and I’ll never forget seeing him laughing and shaking his head as he ran down the ball. He probably wanted no part of Cubness to begin with, and was looking to play himself out of Chicago.

"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62

"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64

by ernaga on May 22, 2011 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions

Murcer's tenure in Chicago was bizarre.

He started off 1977 like he’d be a 30/100 guy. After mid-August he almost completely stopped hitting, didn’t hit in 1978, and in ’79 was off to a bad start when he was finally shipped back to the Yankees.

The trade of Madlock for Murcer was a bad idea to begin with, and made worse because the team claimed they did it because Madlock wanted too much money. Then they gave Murcer more than Madlock had asked for.

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by Al Yellon on May 23, 2011 7:20 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

With 10 teams...

I think the best way to do it like someone mentioned above is a best-of-three, all at the site of the #4 seed, with one day off before the series starts. Winner goes on to play the top team in their league, best-of-five. If the 5th best team in the league wins the World Series, fine, but they’re going to have to play and win a lot of games against better-rested teams. Make them work for it… I think most people would agree that the reason that this current playoff system breeds surprise champions is that everyone being on the same level at the start is not fair to those that won, proved, and deserve a leg up thanks to their 162 game performance.

Make it happen baby: Cubs, Jaguars, FSU, Jazz, Thrashers.

by camnorris14 on May 22, 2011 3:16 PM CDT reply actions

there are better ways to improve baseball

this seems a lot like having two teams play an extra game to get the #64 seen for March Madness, more about a way to make some extra $$ than true competition

I know luxury tax is a messed up thing, but MLB isnt about to be rid of it, so need to force the teams who get it to use it for baseball not their outside ventures. I remeber reading a while back about a team whose team salary was below what they received in luxury tax, and that is a problem. Teams need a ceiling and floor for salaries, thats a bigger step in the right direction than adding another two playoff teams

by Cubbie-Tim on May 30, 2011 10:54 AM CDT reply actions