Draft Prep-The Myth Of BAP
I wasn't planning on doing another one of these pre-Draft until two bits of Draft News pre-empted my lethargy. Both perfectly explain why "We Draft The Best Available Player" is a myth.
Another reason BAP doesn't apply is because some 'early' picks will be reasonably 'safe' picks. There is wisdom in taking a player who will sign easily (and early) to get him progressing through the system, instead of holding out for top dollar. Sometimes, the tough early sign is worth the effort, hence the proper call. But grabbing a Junior of value to add a quality prospect to your system is even a Red Sox value early.
A goal should be to bring in a wide swath of talent to infuse many different abilities into your talent-pool. That isn't necessarily best accomplished by spending big money early.
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I mentioned two bits of news. John Stilson, a RHSP from Texas A&M is out for the season with a labrum tear. Stilson is a very talented righty. Labrum injuries require rehab, and many teams won't take the chance early. While Stilson might be a bargain in the fourth round or so, many organizations really want someone advancing through the system before next June. That's understandable, but he is certainly going to be a better available player than an Anthony Meo (a RHSP for Coastal Carolina, who isn't Stilson-good, but projects now sooner than Stilson due to the injury), or others that will come off the board quicker. While his injury may well hamper his career, but the Topic today is talent, not short-term success.
A better example is Josh Bell. Bell is a high scool outfielder from Jesuit High school in Dallas Texas. Very talented, he has a scholarship to play at University Of Texas. Bell has gone so far as to ink a letter to the Major League Souting Bureau to inform them that he need not be drafted in June. He will play in Austin next year, so any draft of himself would be wasted effort. He will be best available talent, certainly by the Sandwich Round. And any Scouting Director taking him in the first few Rounds should be fired.
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Scouting amateurs for Pro Ball through the draft involves quite a few categories. How will the top dozen available SP candidates develop their secondary offerings? Will that slugger in college be able to stick at a reasonable defensive position? Will those questions regarding the talented hitter's background stunt his development?
Different teams place higher values on character, power, patience, and other facters than other teams. As much as we might want them to, teams don't base things on perceived talent only. To think they do would be foolish.
****
Many lists are out for the Draft that evaluate talent well beyond the Top Sixty. I would really like to see the Cubs take advantage of the talent pool this time around. Grab Sandwich Round talent with the 69th Pick. With malaise in the Bleachers, now would be a good time to keep upgrading the system. I'd be interested in hearing who you would like to see us peg in Rounds 2 and beyond.
Oh, and don't draft Josh Bell.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I want Bauer.
If available.
"It's easy to do what's ordinary, it's difficult to do what's deemed impossible -- I guess that explains why my life is so hard, because nothing is impossible for me"
Agreed
Not only is Bauer a fast mover but he’s a difference maker and would be a huge upgrade to an organization with few difference making arms.
"When the day comes with that last winning run and I'm crying and covered in beer. I'll look to the sky and know I was right to think someday we'll go all the way." - Vedder
Tim
Long time, no see.
I fully expect Bauer to go before us. But Archie and Starling have a chance of making it to us, and both would make me very happy. I would cringe if either is picked, although I went with Starling in the poll. I just think this draft is so dang deep with prep arms, that we could still grab a great one at 69. The impact bats will almost surely be gone by then.
As the Archie Bradley train has slowly gotten going again...
I’ve hopped on board. The guy has the ideal pitchers frame, good mechanics, he’s a student of the game, his stuff is plus now and projects very well going forward….I like him more than both Starling and Bundy amongst HS players. I think he’s better than Zach Lee was last year too, and everyone d-rided that crap out of that guy.
As far as who it'd suck to miss on...
Matt Barnes. It’s not often you get your hands on a projectable college pitcher with his kind of stuff. Has one of the better deliveries in the draft:

Eh, I wouldn't lose a wink of sleep
Assuming we picked one of:
-Rendon
-Cole
-Bundy
-Bauer
-Starling
-Springer
-Archie Bradley
-Hultzen
I would be alright if we passed on Barnes for Gray/Lindor/Baez/Guerrieri/Jed Bradley, but wouldn’t be terribly pleased.
I'm still meh on Hultzen...
and I rank Barnes and Bauer about the same. Barnes being the more projectable pitcher as far as adding size and stuff is concerned, while Bauer is more polished. I think both could make it quick through the minors, but I think Barnes is the one who sees his stuff move up a notch while doing it.
Similar talent to Matt Harvey last year.
Still too many "ifs" left with Barnes
for me to rank him anywhere near Bauer. But I completely agree that he and Harvey are similar.
Too many ifs with baseball prospects with general....
I think Barnes offers rare abilities seen from a college pitcher. He’s still projectable even with a fastball he already throws consistently 93-94, and some think he can pitch at 95-96 with some major league muscle on him. The curveball has the potential to be knockout, and if not he can go the slider. The changeup is as far along as most guys who don’t feel the need to master the pitcher, and has plenty of room to go up.
As far as statistically performing this season, Bauer’s K’s are ridiculous and his performance this year is his biggest advantage. I wouldn’t mind either, but I think Barnes is the diamond in the rough of the possible top 10 guys,
Perhaps
But i’ll give the nod to Bauer as far as highest ceiling goes.
I think Barnes' fastball and curveball
have the potential to be as good or better than Bauer’s, especially the fastball .
Either one fits really….if anything Bauer is easier to sell right now. I don’t think he’s the second coming of Tim Lincecum or really all that close. There’s alot of fastballs up with Bauer.
Love me some Archie
He or Starling would be absolutely fantastic
Bradley's a HS pitcher I can get behind in the top 10...
Big, tall, athletic, proejctable, and plenty of present stuff.
NFL draft doesn't work on a BAP basis?
Then how come the last two teams in the Super Bowl are well-known for their strict BAP draft philosophies? True, you have to fit the pick to value, as well, but both Ted Thompson and Kevin Colbert are almost pure BAP guys.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
No clearer example of BAP in the NFL is seen with the Arizona Cardinals
In 2004 they didn’t need a WR, having just drafted Bryant Johnson in RD 1 & Anquan Boldin in RD 2 the year before. Denny Green hit a grand slam by then drafting Larry Fitzgerald in 2004.
In 2007 they bypassed the consensus BPA (Adrian Peterson) with the 7th overall pick because they needed an OT. They then drafted Levi Brown who’s been considered to be a huge disappointment.
HC Ken Whisenhunt finally admitted to Fitzgerald himself that he made a huge mistake with that pick by not selecting AP.
Thus they end up 1 for 2. Hitting with Fitzgerald & missing with Peterson.
Had they drafted both BPA’s they would’ve had Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson in the backfield and on the edge in the Super Bowl against Pittsburgh.
That’s a scary lineup for any DC.
It wasn't that simple
There were a lot of concerns about Adrian Peterson being injury prone at Oklahoma. A lot of analysts were questioning how durable Peterson would be at the next level, and idiot Mel Kuiper and others said the Vikings were reaching when they picked him at #7.
The Cardinal pick in 2007 was at #5, which is where they selected Levi Brown.
To complete the story, you have to move to 2009, when the Cardinals picked Beanie Wells late in the 1st round, even though he was injured a lot in college, just like Adrian Peterson.
And guess what…Beanie has been a bust.
So, you never know…it’s easy to say it was a mistake to pass on Adrian Peterson, now that he has put up several Pro Bowl type years…but there was every reason at the time to be concerned that he would turn out like Beanie Wells has…and Beanie is bigger than Peterson.
Peterson was considered a once in a decade type RB prospect...
besides the injuries. The injuries are what made him a slight gamble on draft day.
Along with the fumbles and upright running style.
Not only did he have injuries, but his running style made it likely that he would incur quite a few more.
Well the thinking at the time was that....
he was physically a monster for the position in every way, and that the injuries (particularly the collarbone one that took him out that year) were freak injuries.
Peterson’s the best college RB I’ve ever gotten the chance to see, so I’m biased. He might have been slightly hurt on draft by the death of the feature back at the NFL level.
Whisenhunt himself said it was a HUGE mistake on his part recently
Larry Fitzgerald said in an interview with Yahoo Sports that Whisenhunt admitted that to him.
Apparently you are not understanding that fact.
As far as Peterson was concerned, the Cards loved him, but NEEDED (notice the word need) an OT.
Which is what they got.
Brown was projected to go anywhere from 10-15. He’s been a complete underachiever ever since.
Peterson was considered to be a franchise type player.
The Cards ‘reached’ for Brown to fill a need.
It’s really just that simple.
They ‘reached’ to fill a need and passed on a player they themselves considered to be superior.
Too many QBs drafted early
Everyone knew the Bears were drafting OLine first. The closer you get, the better you are, though.
Pick at 69
I just hope we go for more ceiling rather than floor.
I hope we go for Grayson Garvin.
If he’s still around.
I’m inclined towards stocking up on more upside pitchers in this draft if it’s possible. I think there’s a chance that someone like Michael Kelly falls to us at 69…or even Henry Owens if the 6th happened to be a lucky day…
Anyone know if there’s much talk of moving Dillon Maples to 3B?
Everything I've heard has him as a P
But it only takes one team to like him more as a hitter.
I like him at 3B more than a pitcher from the couple Youtube clips available.
But yeah, I’m just a guy with the internet.
I have always been wary
of guys who hit/pitch, especially with a high pick. I’d like to see a high OBP guy w/ speed or a high ceiling prep arm. Either works.
I'd like to pick a power bat if we're getting a position player.
Starling is the guy I hope falls to us. We havespeedy high OBP guys with Szczur and Jackson, but really lack an elite power bat.
I'd be fine with that
I’ve always been a component of picking up power through trades and free agency. I think Bryce Dial is a player who can give us tremendous plate discipline (perhaps the best in the system) with a little more power than Jackson projects to have. Maybe I’m just a huge sucker for high walk/low strikeout rates. Add in some solid speed a solid defense and you have yourself a great round 3 pick (although, I wouldn’t mind him with our second either. I trust Wilken either way, so I’m not sweating it.
Also
I don’t see too many legitimate elite power bats who will be available to us at #69. And those that do have power also have some red flags as well. Most legitimate elite power bats in the show today are guys who were taken the first two rounds. Unless someone here has some insight on an elite power bat that will be around by #69 that I’m forgetting.
High upside bats
Have been masked by the composite bats. Or lack of said composite bats before made them where they didn’t exist.
I'd love to steal Jackie Bradley Jr in the 2nd or 3rd because...
he was doing so well with these bats. Also, because he’d be right with Szczur and Jackson after a while as a 4-4.5-5 tool CF prospect.
Just one request
Draft a future HOFer, and make sure he stays with the Cubs.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
I have another request
Draft an additional 3 future HOFs this year and make sure they stay with the Cubs.
by Outshined_One on May 30, 2011 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
In round 3...
I’d like to see the Cubs grab Stanford LHP Brett Mooneyham. In another year a lefty with his raw stuff would go closer to the 1st, but in this draft I don’t see it. He reminds me a little of Andy Oliver, and I would love to see a high upside college LHP brought in.
Thanks.
He was considered first round material going into the season, but the injury took him down. Definately a good guy to bring into the system.
I'm contemplating putting together a "List Of Seventy"
guys I’d want (if available with the second pick. Blake Swihart wouldn’t be on the list, as he’s gone all Josh Bell and won’t sign.
I was thinking of doing the same
I’ll try to get it done by the draft at least.
In case any of you care about Fightin Illini Baseball,
they will face Fullerton State Ace Tyler Pill on Friday. Quite a few good pitchers going on Friday and Saturday as Regionals begin.
Another interesting HS arm for the 2nd round...
Hawtin Buchanan. He vaguely reminds me of Aaron Harang:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=S-t0SNd0I4M
MLB Trade Rumors said...
we sent a “small army” to watch George Springer.
Why the weeping, Tim?
All reports are that Bubba Starling is still the #1 choice. Archie Bradley was also heavily scouted. Both of their seasons are done with. Nothing wrong with sending everyone to scout Springer, when there really aren’t any better prospects they could be looking at right now.
If Starling is gone,
I really hope they take Archie Bradley, unless of course Bundy or Bauer is available. I’d be happy with Barnes too.
This, and if not any of them, I'm fine with Springer.
The guy has the tools to make a difference and is having a hell of a year. He’s actually being underrated in most circles right now, IMO.
George Springer is the college Bubba Starling.
Extraordinary tools and athleticism, and he’ll bring the plus of being a more well trained and experienced athlete and baseball player.
This smacks of the Worst Case Scenario
Take anyone you want, but you might not want to blow your $4.5 mil in draft bonuses on Starling or Archie Bradley. I trust Wilken. I’d trust he’d do better with an $8 million dollar kitty though.
I’m Google Maps-ing a proper cliff. If we don’t spend this Draft, why am I listening to Tennessee games? Why do I care about the Peoria Chiefs if the Hayden Simpson pick was a precursor of things to come.
Trust isn’t something I’m really good with.
And rightly so.
We’ve had very little reason to trust anything with this organization. While Wilken may have bucked the industry concensus recently, he’s put together a pretty solid farm system (with what I suspect was a fairly constricted draft budget). Wilken honestly has earned my trust.
As for the draft budget, Ricketts has continually said that the money is being reallocated to amateur players. We spent a lot on international players last year, and have already spent $1.5 million on the two Cubans this year. I would guess that they earmarked a healthy sum of money for the draft this year, knowing that someone with high bonus demands (Starling) might fall right in their laps.
They'd better be scouting him
The Cubs better do their homework on Springer, especially if he’s got the potential to be one of the top guys in this draft. I like hearing the Cubs are, at the very least, doing their homework on him. I hope the Cubs are doing the same for all of the prospects projected to be available when they pick in the first round. If they think he’s worth #9 and pick him, then great, and if not, oh well. At least they did their research.
by Outshined_One on May 31, 2011 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Matt Purke
Where do you think he’ll go? And If available at 69, do you want him? I’m kinda torn. It’d he great to have his potential in the system, especially since he was a consensus top 10 pick prior to the season and most had him competing for first. But on the other hand, he’s a big risk. Especially depending on money. However, I think I’d take him. I’d take a first three of Starling/Purke/Mooneyham and never look back.
Here's what John Kilma over at Baseball Beginnings had to say
Former first-rounder no longer overpowering. Violent, max-effort and slingy pusher, mid-to-low ¾, body in front of arm, leading and dropping elbow, front side flying open. Leads with elbow and drags arm to compensate, jeopardizing entire future. Arm does not work. Lacks consistent downhill plane and confident repetition of breaking stuff. Transformation from schoolboy flame thrower to ordinary average well underway. No longer a premium pick.
For what it’s worth, he also thinks Starling is going to be a bust, and Gray an elite closer.
Kilma is ALWAYS over the top on guys he doesn't like.
It’s seriously doom and gloom for anyone who takes Lindor, Baez, Purke, or Starling.
I like some of his stuff, but he can go way over the top on some of his reactions.
Purke will be gone by the early 2nd at the latest, and will either flame out into nothing or be a serious TOR threat.
Anderson is underrated...
He’s the Mike Minor of this draft except he’s bigger and more physical. I’ve read Andy Pettitte comparisons.
Agreed completely
I really like Anderson. I actually think his fastball is better than Minor’s, although his changeup is behind Mike’s. He’ll be gone in the back half of the 1st round, though. No chance at getting him at 69.
I'm thinking he's more of a reach candidate at 9...
then an option at 69. Neither is likely, but he’s a guy I’d buy if they did another “who’s that guy?” pick.
Probably my favorite college lefty in the draft at this point.
Interesting article
raising the possibility that Rendon may drop in the draft ala Stephen Drew and for some of the same reasons…
Just don't see it
But man, that would be sweet.
The College Brackets are posted
Who should we keep an eye on? Other than the likely-to-be-over-early Fullerton/Illinois matchup? Might as well watch Connecticut versus Coastal, as Barnes versus Meo with a side salad of Springer should be of importance soon. I guess any UCLA game if you like watching hitters not get it done.
It still is shocking to not see LSU in this thing
Yeah, they had an up-and-down year, but they still should have probably gotten an at-large bid over St. Johns.
John Sickels has Josh Bell as his number 7 prospect.
He’s got Starling at 6.
I’ve talked about Bell at 9 before, and I still think it wouldn’t be crazy. A switch hitter with patience, power, and the ability to hit for average would be a major coup for this franchise. His rise is Heyward-esque.
The question is, could we lure him away from a Texas commitment he seems to be set on?
You can't touch him in the 1st
It’s just too risky. In this draft, you can’t afford to not sign your 1st rounder.
Good point...
OTOH, if he CAN be lured out of his Texas commitment that’d be a draft changer/maker.
Zach Lee pulled this same thing last year, though it was a commitment for that Neanderthal sport. Bell’s good enough…
This is NOT the year for the Cubs to take risks like that.
Take a guarantee like Springer if you need an OF talent and Starling is gone.
I LOVE Bell, potential 30-35 HR switch hitting corner OF, but he’s said as much as he wont sign, and while I don’t really believe him, im not taking that risk as the Cubs.
The risk is worth it for the talent IMO...
There are very few kinds of players, especially HS, that I’d be OK with this, but if the Cubs took and signed Bell they’d blow minds. He could be the first HS player to make the majors…It’ll end up being between him and probably Bundy fighting for that.
I'm more worried about missing on a guy who could be a Heyward-esque talent...
with switch hitting capabilities.
Well…Heyward with Mike Stanton’s defensive ability.
And si, thats the class of prospect I think he's in...
Heyward and Stanton.
Also...
the Cubs are said to be willing to pony up for Starling. If they have that kind of money, is Bell really going to be so out of reach? The Cubs have also been very hard to predict on draft day under Wilken…They can’t miss, so maybe they choose to not miss on Bell.
No but really,
I’m serious. He’s right there with Starling for highest upside HS bat, and he has the advantage of being more patient, polished, and being a switch hitter.
I agree
I am very high on Bell and he is probably only a shade below Starling, due to Starling’s insane speed and athleticism. Bell has a fantastic plate approach already and as you said, is very polished for a prep bat. I am perfectly fine with taking a chance on Bell in the 2nd (as the Tigers probably would pounce after us in the 2nd), but I don’t want to take that big of a risk in the 1st. The 10th pick next year (our compensation if we don’t sign the 1st rounder) would be about the 25th pick this year, if not worse. Next year’s draft is going to suck.
Next year's draft is going to suck.
I still think some team is going to take the shot at Bell in the first…and if it’s a rich team like us they just might land him.
I agree. I'm hoping we can get like a Mark Appel next year.
even though it’s too early to be talking about next years potential targets.
But we'd have to be really bad this year to....
never mind.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
It's never too early for "next year" in Cubbie-land.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
At least not too early
when you just got swept at home against the lowly Astros; your whole team is decimated by injuries; your manager is an idiot; and some of the vets are scuffling.
Oh, we'll have a high pick no doubt
I just meant as far as specific players go, we really don’t have a clear picture.
I kind of hope the Stanford SS/3B goes Longoria on their asses but...
there’s always the but and maybes.
I'm starting to think he's not a shade below.
I asked Sickels what he thought of the two players here’s the exchange:
Me: How large do you see the gap between Bell and Starling as? I have Bell as a better pure baseball player, while Starling is the better athlete with stronger defensive tools while still owning ridiculous bat potential. Close?
Sickels: I agree on your take here, Bell has more polish, Starling a better athlete with better defense but also higher risk that he won’t hit as expected. They are pretty damn close.
Someone: To put some numbers on their ceilings, does this seem reasonable? 30-30 potential for Starling, 30-40 HR potential for Bell? Maybe .280 avg for each, with Bell more likely to reach that avg?
Sickels: I can see that…maybe more 25-30 for Starling. Bell 35 homers, high walks.
Bell=High Walks
Has been eliminated from consideration, no?
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Starling could steal as many bases as he wants
He has true plus speed. 4.36 40 yard dash is insane
I think I've trimmed my wantlist to three
1. Bubba Starling. He may not be there, but drafting (and signing him, of course) indicates we may be a challenger for high-end talent in the future. Slightly concerned about bust-out factor, but this makes sense if he slips.
2. Archie Bradley. If not a middle of the order hitter, we need a potential ace. Since Bundy will be phoning his buds when the Cubs are on the clock, Bradley become the next best option.
3. George Springer. If both HS are gone, I would tolerate Springer. He ought to be able to hit fifth-ish without much embarrassment if he develops.
4. If someone slips that shouldn’t, they go as the #1 option (Rendon).
Other thoughts… If we draft Matt Barnes, I hope Chad Noble gets to catch him at least once in a game. A battery of Barnes and Noble would be so very bookish.
Francisco Lindor. Really frightened we’ll trade for him with the ’we can always trade our excess MI for talent. Lee and more for Garza. Thomas for Coello. The RedBirds dealt Brendan Ryan for a guy who just got called up. That is flipping.
Please spend some money this off-season. Sell a few shares of Ameritrade.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
But would Barnes and Noble get the any calls on the Borders?
Sorry, that was so bad I couldn’t resist.
Honestly though, I’m loving Starling, A. Bradley, Springer, Bell, and Bauer (who likely wont be there)
Maybe in the Amazon League
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Word is
that the Cubs didn’t like what they saw in Springer, and he is no longer getting much consideration for the pick.
The name that keeps popping up is Javier Baez. It appears the Cubs like him more than they are letting on. They still prefer Starling, but Baez might not be far behind him. If Starling is off the board, don’t be surprised if Baez is the pick.
I heard a report
a few months back that ‘a team’ asked Baez to strap on catcher’s gear. The scout timed his release to second. Tried it again. Chuckled when he saw the number, and walked away after telling him he’d seen enough. Or something like that.
As much as the Cubs like turning fielders with a bat into catchers. Since he would come reasonably cheap, and be a potentially legit hitter, I wouldn’t fuss over it too much.
I’d prefer Starling or Bradley, but would accept Baez if Wilken is filling out the draft paperwork.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Agreed
And FWIW, Baez started out as a catcher in HS. He was moved to SS once the coach realized his athleticism was being wasted behind the plate.
Tempering expectations
From 1965-2003, only 17 #9 picks in MLB have had careers with total WAR > 0.
The best OF from that entire bunch was Geoff Jenkins. The best IF was Sean Burroughs.
10 of the last 12 #9 picks have been pitchers. Barry Zito, John Danks, and Jeff Francis have had the best major league careers so fare of those, although Pelfrey is still young and the Tigers 2009 pick seems to be progressing steadily through the minors.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??

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