Carlos Pena As Rich Harden 2.0
As 2009 wound to the trading deadline, the Cubs had a pitcher with some value, heading into a free agent off-season. With Rich Harden, there were four viable options for the Cubs. One was to trade him for Prospects. I seem to remember there were attempts to do this, but they went unrewarded. Another was to sign him to a long-term deal. This would have been disastrous, as he was of little value after he left. They could have offered him arbitration, which was thorny as they were budget-strapped, but if he would have left as a free agent, they could have netted a draft pick. Or, they could not trade him, not offer him arbitration, and get no compensation.
While arguments could be made on whether we made the right choice, we have a similar batch of options for upcoming free agent 1B Carlos Pena. After a slow start offensively, his bat has warmed with the temperature. His glove is very solid. He is the 2012 first choice of very few people. But, how do the Cubs want to handle these situations in the future?
Unless offered legitimate prospects for a trade offer near the deadline, I propose keeping him around and offering him Arbitration for 2012. Obviously, there are 'a couple' first basemen of note on the block this off-season. Valid arguments have been made for Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.
Nonetheless, I would offer Pena Arbitration. Off this season, I think he might want more than a one-year deal. If we miss on the other two, Pena would be an 'acceptable' third option. If we get one of the other two, we can probably deal an Arby-due Pena for something. And, if he refuses an Arby offer, we get draft compensation. That is how I think the Cubs should proceed going forward. When all else fails, try to get a draft pick if the cost/benefit isn't outrageous (see Grabow, John).
That would be the Red Sox model.
What thinks you?
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If 2012 is a rebuilding year and we see (I hope) a youth movement...
…what purpose would Carlos Pena serve? If this team were a legitimate contender, Pena would make for an excellent piece to a contending team. Let’s see how things play out before the trade deadline because a contending teams first baseman might get injured and all of a sudden he becomes valued. Cardinals maybe?
Guys, hitting is not about muscle. It's simple physics. Calculate the velocity, v, in relation to the trajectory, t, in which g, gravity, of course remains a constant.... It's not complicated. - George Costanza
I want us to accumulate draft picks,
as smart teams do. I’d prefer (if it gets that far) that we offer and he declines, netting us compensation. But if he accepts and we are stuck with him, there are worse options.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
This
If Pena on a 1 year deal is the worst option, I’d be ok. I honestly think both Pujols and Fielder will end up ridiculously overpaid this offseason, and I really don’t want that on the books.
Most contending teams get their good players by overpaying for them.
It has to be done.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jun 27, 2011 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions
They do it when it puts them over the top
They don’t do it to start things out, which is essentially where we are at.
where else will we get a superstar player?
Maybe Starlin becomes one, but we’ll likely need a lot more than him, and it isn’t coming from our farm system.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jun 28, 2011 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions
At least the Yankees and Red Sox are already set at 1st
So maybe the asking price won’t be QUITE as high without them asking absurd amounts
A man who wants to lead the orchestra must turn his back on the crowd.
by CastroRakesOnTheReg on Jun 28, 2011 2:49 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Doubtful
Nats, Baltimore and the Blue Jays all could get in on the bidding and should have some good money available.
Most of the Cardinals Prospects are horrid.
Shelby Miller won’t be offered.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Because we have no one in the minors who's ready to play first base everyday in the majors.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I think that the Cubs
should trade him as soon as they can.
Hendry should be on the phone with the Twins trying to convince them that all is not lost and rather than make their premier player try to switch positions, that Pena would be a great addition.
He should be on the phone with the Angels letting them know that Pena could be a difference maker for that team.
The Indians probably aren’t going to be buyers, but I’d give them a call, too.
Get some prospects that the scouts like and project as major league players down the road. I like the draft picks idea, but it’s such a crap shoot as to how strong the draft will be and signability vs. college.
I forgot to state
That for the Cubs to trade him, Hendry would finally have to come to realization that many Cub fans have: 2011 is finished and Pena isn’t going to be the difference between competing or not in 2012 for the Cubs.
I'm not sold on other teams
giving up multiple Top Ten prospects for Pena. If someone does, by all means. But most teams won’t.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Of course they won't but that's not the right criteria
A compensation pick won’t get you any top ten prospects, or at most 1 and that’s only if you’re lucky.
You just need to decide 1) can you risk the player accepting arbitration and 2) will what you get in a compensation pick be greater than what you get in trade, assuming you can assume the risk for #1.
This is so very on the money
Throw in the possibility of saving some cash (cash that could theoretically be used to sign an international free agent prospect, for example), and trading a player like Pena is almost always a wiser move than taking your chances with the arbitration/compensation process.
Bleacher Nation - Cubs Rumors and News
by Brett Taylor on Jun 29, 2011 7:31 AM CDT up reply actions
It depends on the team doing the drafting
A team like the Red Sox will take the arbitration route every time, because they have had very good success through the draft. Supplemental 1st round picks can turn into gold mines.
It depends on so much more than just the team...
It depends on the cost, the value of said player, the likelihood they will receive worthwhile multiyear offers, the needs in your system, the young talent behind said player…. you can never just look at one or two things and say if it’s a good or a bad idea.
Too many variables.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Carlos Pena is going to be a Type B free agent
So you won’t even get that great of a pick for him.
You also have to decide this before you head into the free agency signing period, meaning if you offer it you risk him accepting AND ending up signing a free agent 1b. Without a DH that’s a pretty unacceptable risk.
Given that it’s not that great of a pick, that he might earn $10M or so in arbitration, and that you probably want to keep that position open for a free agent slugger, it seems like a pretty unlikely risk.
Sorry Wreckard
I promise I wasn’t trying to steal all your thoughts. But it looks like you and I are on the same page.
You can trade a player
who is pending arbitration. Yes, I would accept the risk.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
But then you're trading him to a team
that would have to offer him around $10 million again and possibly more depending on the arbitration judge.
I may be wrong on this, but I think the minimum that a salary could be reduced in arbitration is like 20%? So, minimum 8 million, possibly more. I’m sure others here can correct this if I’m incorrect.
No one would accept that risk
Pena is the kind of player (lots of home runs, rbi’s) that could fetch more than his market value in arbitration.
Let’s say he’s awarded $12M in arbitration, but no one is willing to take him for more than $10M (even that’s a stretch – yes he signed for $10M this year, but since half is deferred the actual value of that contract is lower). You run the risk of having to eat a couple million dollars to trade him. In that scenario you end up $2M in the hole, all in the name of taking a risk that you could have ended up with the 50th draft pick next year? No thanks.
The reason some teams succeed with this is that they offer it intelligently.
Now one nuance to this: because he’s Type B, the signing team wouldn’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him. So it doesn’t hurt Pena’s value for you to offer him arb. You might be able to have a conversation with him and see if he’d agree in advance to decline your offer.
has a boras client ever accepted arbitration?
Blake "The Franchise" DeWitt will lead us to the promised land
by jesus christos on Jun 27, 2011 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Indeed, but Pena won't
Boras made it clear it was one year deal to show his value. He will not sign a one year deal or accept arbitration.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
by Doggie Stalker on Jun 28, 2011 6:17 AM CDT up reply actions
What if no one offers him more than that?
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With his season he won't get a multi year offer?
This was one time deal from Boras and Pena is having a good season. Either you sign him for a multi year deal ( which for the record I would think about if it no more than 3 years) or he is gone.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
by Doggie Stalker on Jun 28, 2011 8:35 AM CDT up reply actions
There are worse things than Pena on a one year deal
He’s a pretty solid backup plan to Fielder/Pujols, and if we somehow managed to snag one of the other two, he’d likely be easily tradable with that one year arbitration deal. It makes all the sense in the world to offer Pena arbitation, but of course Hendry won’t.
It is possible Hendry agreed in advanced not to offer arb
I can see Boras having made this a condition.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
by Doggie Stalker on Jun 28, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
There was no reason to bother
He’s always been extremely like to be Type B, where his value isn’t harmed by an offer of arbitration.
My guess is that if any agreement was made
it had to do with Type A status. As you mentioned, a Type B FA is the same as a non-ranked FA as far as prospective teams are concerned.
Not necessarily...
You’d do a handshake deal with type B players BECAUSE it doesn’t hurt their value. You sit them down and say, “we appreciate all you’ve done for us over the past x years, and we wish you the best with your next team. We realize you’re a type B free agent and would like to ensure you’re not interested in accepting arbitration if we were to offer it.”
It doesn’t hurt them if you offer it and they decline, because they wont have negative value on them as a Type A does (costing a pick). This means the players likely wont care if offered. The team is simply playing a game of CYA in order to make sure the player doesn’t accept and they get burned.
I see what you're saying
And it absolutely makes sense. But Dogge Stalker (Jessica, as I’ve seen mentioned many times) above was saying that Boras likely was the one to make the handshake agreement, meaning that it would be in the client’s best interests if arbitration could not be offered. I think we both agree that Type B arbitration being offered has no bearing on a prospective FA’s value.
Oh, I missed that post by DS...
Yes, it would make sense if he was Type A to make that a requirement, but Type B, Boras could care less whether arb is offered or not, it doesn’t change how he approaches the offseason.
I never said Top Ten prospects
And I agree, that teams won’t give multiple top ten prospects for Pena. He’s not worth it.
I simply said prospects that project as major league players. That’s part of the reason teams have scouts. Possibly pluck some talent. Go for a solid prospect and a lightening in a bottle prospect.
If you offer him arb and he declines, you may get A top pick in the draft if you’re really lucky and they agree to sign vs. college, etc. And that’s would be assuming he’s a Type A, which he may not be.
Or he may accept and the Cubs get stuck having to pay him 12million next year, which simply isn’t a wise use of money, so it’s likely what the Cubs would do.
I don't think the Cubs need another C- Prospect,
but if offered a real prospect, I would be good with it.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
And that’s would be assuming he’s a Type A, which he may not be.
He won’t be – he’s barely Type B as it is.
Is that determined as of now?
Or does it include this year’s stats?
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yes
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/06/elias-rankings-update.html
Blake "The Franchise" DeWitt will lead us to the promised land
by jesus christos on Jun 27, 2011 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions
yes as in determined right now
Blake "The Franchise" DeWitt will lead us to the promised land
by jesus christos on Jun 27, 2011 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions
It will include this year's stats
…but he’s so far down in Type B that he’s pretty much guaranteed to end up there.
Unless he falls off altogether.
So to answer your question, no, it’s not already a guarantee. It factors in the remaining 2011 stats as well.
Arb is compiled from the previous 2 years stats, so all of 2010 and all of 2011 will determine his status
He’s got 75% of his games accounted for. That link will actually update pretty much weekly with the new numbers.
I pray if they keep the arb system they get new numbers to judge value on. Currently they use terrible stats like ERA, BA, RBI, HR, etc with no account for defense, park factors…
Again, Tim
I said go for a solid prospect and a lightening in a bottle prospect.
Maybe I should have stated that my definition of a solid prospect would be a B or B+.
I’m not talking about giving him away for only a C- prospect.
If no B Prospect, then
let him walk? Or offer Arb?
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
There's no way that I'd offer him arbitration
If Hendry was smart, he’d call the teams I mentioned earlier that are right in the thick of it right now and convince them that Pena would make an impact.
Might even be able to get the Rays to take him back.
A hired bat for a team in contention should be able to net a B prospect, especially if the Cubs are willing to pay a lot of the contract. The money is already committed.
If they can’t get prospects that they see as adding value, then I’d hold on to him and let him walk at the end of the year.
Not a chance I’d offer him arbitration, though. Too much risk involved if the Cubs are truly targeting either Fielder or Pujols.
I really don't think he'd accept arb.
He wants a multi year deal. He used us this year as much as we used him.
Yeah, I really don't think he came here expecting to be a big bat in the middle of the lineup for a playoff team.
He probably figured us to be a place to get his groove back while playing for a lower tier team, then he can get lots of money next year.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jun 27, 2011 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Oops
Didn’t catch this before posting my own post.
I want Albert or Prince but besides them Carlos may be the best option for 2012.
Nothing happens unless it's first a dream
by puckishcubsfan on Jun 27, 2011 10:15 PM CDT reply actions
Pena...
…is what he is and despite his slow start, he will end up hitting his 28-32 dings, will hit .220-.230 and probably drive in 85-90 runs.
Not bad production if you have the right guys in the rest of your lineup to round things out. What has impressed me most about Pena, is his glove. I knew he was a good defender, but he is better than I originally thought and even an upgrade to what they had with DLee.
I would not rule out trying to bring him back another year, but I want someone new making that decision for 2012.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
The Cubs made the right move on Harden
Harden made $7MM in 2009 and was tagged as a Type B free agent. There was too much risk of him accepting arbitration if he was offered it. And then the Cubs were looking owing him at least $7.5MM, if they won the arbitration.
Letting Harden go was the right move.
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
Not at all
He should have been dealt. The Cubs were out of it at the time, and Harden wasn’t even pitching that well. Harden was put on waivers and the Twins claimed him, with the intention of trading for him. Even if they weren’t offering up much, an 18 year old minor league flier (and the money saved the rest of the year on Harden’s deal) would have been better than the nothing that we got.
His value at the time was higher than what you or the Twins were offering
If the Cubs had traded Harden and he was a Type A free agent (like the waiver reports suggest), people would be mad at Hendry for not getting the draft picks.
Somethimes you can make a deal and sometimes you can’t. But you don’t just take a lowball offer.
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
by RiskyBusiness on Jun 29, 2011 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions
We knew we shouldn't/wouldn't offer arb very very early that year.
The choices were not: take offer arb and get draft picks or trade him and get prospects as you’re implying. The choices were: trade him and get prospects or keep him all year and let him walk for nothing.
Choosing the latter is always a bad idea when you’re in a losing season. Only reason to keep the guy when you aren’t offering arb for sure is if you’re contending.
The Cubs were tied for first place in the division in August.
August 5th – 3 weeks beofre harden was on the waiver wire. Not exactly a losing season.
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
by RiskyBusiness on Jun 29, 2011 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I wasn't saying that was or wasn't a bad idea to not trade him
Was simply pointing out when it makes sense to make either decision.
Trade him
If they can get someone with a pulse, make the trade because it also eliminates 2 months worth of salary worth a little over $3 million. Take that money and use it to sign a reliever or bat off the bench.
Then go sign Pujols.
He only is making $5 million this year
The other $5 million gets paid next year. 2 months of his salary would be $1.66 million.
trouble
is you let pena go and then cant get prince then what??and dont anyone say pujols.please.
Here's the thing...
it won’t matter for 2012.
Neither Prince or Pena or Pujolos makes the Cubs a contender next year.
There are way too many problems to address for one player to come in and turn this disaster of a team into one that is in contention.
Aramis won’t have his option picked up, so you have a 3B need. 2B is a merry go round of light hitters, CF and RF are questions at this point.
So even if 1B is set with a stud, you have 4 everyday player questions to answer without even getting to the pitching.
besides a few
what team doesnt have a “light hitter” for a second baseman…uggla in the past and utley who has a second base masher?
Rickie Weeks
He is arguably the best 2B in the game right now, since Utley’s knee is killing him.
But your point is valid
2B is somewhat of an offensive black hole right now.
cano
Blake "The Franchise" DeWitt will lead us to the promised land
by jesus christos on Jun 29, 2011 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Cubs 2B has a total of
4 HRs on the year.
Between 4 players. DeWitt, Barney, DJ and Baker.
17 ML 2B individually have at least 4 HR or more right now.
I’m not asking for the 2nd coming of Sandberg, but it would be difficult to argue against the fact that the Cubs could upgrade at 2B. That’s why I refer to it as a question position.
Even if the Cubs are perfectly content with the 2B situation, the point I was making doesn’t change. A stud 1B alone doesn’t make this team a contender in 2012.
Never said that was the only criteria
I said we have “light hitting” 2B.
epsilon brought up the “mashers” for the rest of the league.
My response was to his comment.
And while I agree that the HR total isn’t the be all end all of 2B value, you would have to admit that a total of 4 HR on the year from 4 separate players at the position is nothing short of dismal.
Pena is borderline Type B free agent
And his choices will be take arbitration and make 10 million again next year or go to free agency and make less. I wonder what he will choose?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/06/elias-rankings-update.html
So now you are straddled with an average first baseman, at best, who you’re paying 10 MM and you’ve missed out on two of the best first basemen in this generation of players.
Offering Pena would be insane unless you think he is just stupid.
You realize that Pena is well on his way to being worth 13.5MM this year for the Cubs?
And that outside of 2010, he has been worth a minimum of 13MM since 2007? Even with his terrible 2010, he’s been worth an average of 3.4 WAR since his 2007 year.
You really think that no team out there is going to offer more than a 1/$10M for him next year? I think he’ll be looking at a minimum of 3/$30M. Not to mention his agent is Boras, you REALLY think he’s going to settle for accepting arbitration or another 1 year deal? Didn’t think so.
That's a bit misleading
Pena’s only had 2 3.5+ WAR seasons in his career, all other years he was mediocre and in his last 2 seasons (2009-10) he’s had WARs of 2.9 (2009) and 1.0 (2010). He’s at 1.3 WAR so far this year and I can’t see him getting above 3+ WAR unless he really starts crushing the ball with a higher BA.
I don’t think he gets more than a 2 year deal with maybe a team option for a 3rd year. He’s definitely in the decline phase of his career. I hope the Cubs don’t risk another $10M on him in 2012. Go all in on Fielder and if you don’t get him, then get some dude that’s cheaper than Pena to play 1B in 2012……
Most definately
Adam LaRoche got a 2 year, $16 million deal last year. Aubrey Huff got a 2 year, $22 million deal. I think Pena easily could get 2 years, $20 million, which is worlds better than another 1 year, $10 million deal.
My point exactly... LaRoche's BEST year was a 2.5 WAR season in 2006 and he's averaged 1.4 WAR the last 5 years - he still got 8MM annually for 2 years
Aubrey Huff has been worth an average of 1.7 WAR the last five years, which include his two best years EVER and he still got 11MM annually for 2 years.
Pena, assuming he finishes this year at 2.6-3.0 WAR he will have average of 3.3 WAR over the past 5 years. You’re really trying to argue the best that BORAS can get for him is 2 years at 10M with an option?? Not to mention Pena is better defensively than either and also is younger.
And, what's with using the average WAR and Pena?
his ONE 6 WAR season totally skews that mean calculation. Look at the trend downward in his WAR
2007: 6.0 WAR
2008: 3.7 WAR
2009: 2.9 WAR
2010: 1.0 WAR
2011: 2.6 WAR (doubling up his 1st half numbers)
His last 3 seasons, he’ll have averaged a 2.16 WAR, even if he reaches a 3.5 WAR this season, his average WAR over the last 3 seasons would be close to 2.5 WAR. And moving forward, I wouldn’t bet on Pena putting up consistent 2.5+ WAR seasons from 2012-13 during his age 34-35 seasons when he’ll be 2-4 years removed from his prime years. Again, no thanks on Pena moving forward…..
Shockingly, the WAR of the past 5 years also includes Huffs TWO best years ever and Huffs best year ever..
So you’re really just upset because Pena’s best year is leaps and bounds better than either of the two mentioned above.
Also, even if he averaged 2.5 WAR per year over the past 4 years, he was STILL worth .8 and 1.1 WAR better than LaRoche and Huff respectively.
I don’t care if you don’t want Pena moving forward, that isn’t even my argument. I’m arguing that you HAVE to offer Pena arb if he’s Type B because I guarantee you he’s going to get a multiyear offer of at least 3 years and at least 10MM annually.
He had a terrible terrible April and halfway through is already worth 1.3 WAR.
I’d be shocked if he didn’t get to 3.0 WAR this year. and a win is worth around 4.5-5m this year, so assuming he’d only get 2 years at 10M or under when he’s consistently been worth over 13MM a year even when averaging in his terrible 2010 campaign is naive.
I'd be shocked if he does get to 3 WAR
Cubs have played 80 games so far and he’d half to get 1.7 WAR over the next 82 games. I doubt he’ll keep hitting 8 HRs in 12 games for the rest of the season and the dude is basically a 3 trick pony. Pena’s either walks, strikes out, or hits an HR.
I don’t really want the Cubs to invest $20M in Pena over the next 2 years. Maybe he’d be worth his contract, but we need a guy at 1B that will be worth a $25M contract, a 5+ WAR guy, if you will. If the Cubs can’t sign Fielder or Pujols, they should just pocket the $20M they’d pay Pena and invest it in pitching, the draft, and the IFA market and have Colvin/LaHair/Baker playing 1B on the cheap. No need to waste money on Pena, he isn’t a difference maker type of player and he’s been in decline for a few years now…..
Way to bring up the fact that he's hot now while completely disregarding he didnt hit his second home run until May.
He should get to 3.0 WAR or at least very close. Also, a decline? Outside of last year in which he was injured, he’s been worth 2.9 WAR or above since 2005.
You’re saying Pena isn’t a difference maker, but he’s a huge boost on defense and still a very good offensive player. You want to invest 20MM into pitching when the best pitcher is CJ Wilson and the 2nd best pitcher is… what, Malholm? You need a 1B, and we don’t have an internal option.
I’d prefer Fielder or Pujols any day of the week too, but to dismiss Pena as a solid plan C is ridiculous. LaHair? Really? Way to pretty much invalidate your entire argument.
I’d prefer Fielder or Pujols any day of the week too, but to dismiss Pena as a solid plan C is ridiculous. LaHair? Really? Way to pretty much invalidate your entire argument.
Sorry, I don’t want the Cubs to invest $20M in a plan C 1B, that certainly isn’t a positive move, its a lateral move that doesn’t get the Cubs any closer to the playoffs and Pena is an old player, he’s not going to get better, he’s going to get worse. Lahair would be a punt the season type of move if we aren’t able to land Pujols or Fielder. LaHair might not be very good, but at least he wouldn’t cost $20M. So I think you’re the one with no credibility suggesting that the Cubs spend $20M+ on a player who is clearly in decline and has been for a few years now. And the funny thing about injuries is that they become more frequent and last longer as you age and Pena is older.
You want to invest 20MM into pitching when the best pitcher is CJ Wilson and the 2nd best pitcher is… what, Malholm? You need a 1B, and we don’t have an internal option.
Did you even read my whole post? I said pitching, THE DRAFT AND THE IFA MARKET Did I say those pitchers had to be acquired in the FA market after the 2011 season? No I didn’t. Although CJ Wilson would be a solid pickup, the Cubs could trade for a starter or Pena’s money could be used on a pitcher in the FA market after the 2012 season when there should be a lot of ace type pitchers that are FAs (Cain, Carmona, Danks, Greinke, Hamels, Marcum, and Weaver).
I’m saying that Pena isn’t going to make the Cubs better in 2012 so he won’t be worth the $20M the Cubs would pay him. It would be better to save the money and use LaHair as a cheap stopgap and wait for real difference makers to be available.
In my dream scenario, the Cubs sign Fielder (a step in the right direction) and wait till the 2012 offseason when we have even more money coming off the books and sign 2 starting pitchers. That $20M we didn’t spend on Pena could be used to sign 2 stud starting pitchers. And the Cubs would be in contention in 2013 instead of having $10M invested in a 35-36 year old Carlos Pena
That’s what good teams do, they don’t waste money on over the hill players who aren’t going to help the team get better.
Your ideas are not what big market teams do.
If you want to see a team that does that go follow the Marlins. You’re discussing an option that WILL NEVER BE AN OPTION for the Cubs. LeHair at 1B will never happen, nor will a platoon of Colvin/Baker. You keep saying 20M for Pena, ignoring the fact that’s his entire contract value according to you, you’re talking about 10M next year. With 50-60M coming off the books, that’s not a big investment.
Also, you realize his injury was plantar fasciitis, not an injury that we should expect to occur more often since he’s older.
Also, I’m fine with investing the money into the draft and IFA, however you’re willing to accept bad players at key positions until those players (if they ever even do) turn out?
By your dream scenerio, you don’t seem to understand how this whole things work… I’m done even discussing this with you, because you’ve got blinders on and you’re not even willing to open your eyes to reality.
its called financial and positional flexibility, that's why I'm against resigning Pena in any form.
DartmouthCubsFan had a big long, excellent BCB post on it last season about how the Cubs have traditionally not put themselves in position to cash in when the elite bats become available so they end up overpaying or just signing a guy to fill a spot for more money than the player is worth. I feel like your advocating for the Cubs to yet again settle for the non-elite bat when the elite bat is available (ala the Beltran fiasco).
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2010/5/8/1464019/what-differentiates-the-cubs-from
If a team isn’t going to go out and get an elite player, then what’s the point in spending $10M per year on a guy that isn’t going to get you to where you want to go? namely the playoffs. That’s how I view Pena, he’s a nice player, but not a difference maker. If we had elite bats at other positions, I’d be okay with Pena, but the fact of the matter is that we don’t.
For once, this offseason, Hendry did the right thing and didn’t clog up 1B for multiple years (and I fully acknowledge that I was wrongly on the sign Dunn bandwagon, but not for the money he received) and left the spot open for the 2011 off-season FA market, which at the time of the Pena signing had AGon, Pujols, and Fielder in it. These are difference maker players, Pena is not and you’ll never convince me that he is.
If the Cubs don’t sign Fielder or Pujols, I don’t really get the point of signing Pena to a likely minimum 2 year / $20M deal (hence suggesting Lahair, and if Lahair doesn’t work for you, then insert somebody that will be cheaper than Pena). What exactly is the point of signing Pena? is he going to be the difference between whether we get to the playoffs or not? The answer is No.
The FA market this offseason doesn’t have a lot of elite position players (outside of 1B) or pitchers for that matter. As far as I’m concerned the Cubs should be all in on Fielder by offering him the same contract AGon got with a team option for an 8th year (to satisfy Boras) (or Pujols if he comes back healthy and is willing to accept a 7-8 year deal). Finishing 2nd and settling on Pena should not be an option.
The other things I’d like the Cubs to do would be to resign Fuke to a 2 year deal and let him leadoff again, and let Baker/Dewitt platoon at 3B or considering how poor the 3B FA market is for the next 2 years, I wouldn’t even be opposed to resigning ARam if he would take a 2 year/$16M. Let LeMahieu and Barney platoon at 2B/backup SS. Then pocket the rest of the money and use it to sign Jeff Weaver and maybe a Matt Cain (the Cubs should have money for at least 2 elite or above average SPs) since both Z and Demp coming off the books and Brandon Phillps to play 2B in the 2012 offseason.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html
And the Cubs don’t have $50-60M coming off the books since you haven’t figured in arbitration raises to Geo, Garza, Marshall, Baker, etc, as well as, the likelihood that Ricketts will probably reduce the payroll to $125-130M. A better estimate is that the Cubs will have $35-40M coming off the books after arb raises and payroll reductions.
If the Cubs want to model the RSox, what I believe the RSox would do is look at the FA market for the next 2 years, look at where the team has holes that can be filled with elite talent and sign that elite talent.
2012 FA market elite talent is at 1B
2013 FA market elite talent is at SP
Nevermind... you're not following this at all.
My whole point is if you miss out on Fielder and Pujols, and you still push the fact you start no name players who are AAAA quality at best on a major market team. You talk about what the Red Sox would do – you think they’d have Brian LaHair starting at 1B? Nope.
You say 2012 is elite market for 1B, exactly, if you don’t get either of the top 2, you don’t wait around for 4 more years until there is another elite market for 1B or hope that your farm creates one. Building a team isn’t as easy as you make it sound – it’s unfortunate that you’ve gone to so much trouble to oversimplify this problem, but it’s really all for naught.
I'm following you bro, I just don't agree with you
The LaHair/Colvin platoon remark was made tongue-in-cheek, obviously, I don’t want the Cubs to do that, but for some reason you keep harping on that one point, while apparently glossing over all of the other points I’ve made about the 1B market.
Not signing Fielder or Pujols is not an option in my world (and I’d prefer Fielder over Pujols). Good organizations in large markets (e.g, the RSox, Yankees, Phillies) don’t let the players they covet on the FA market sign for other teams (unless they end up signing with another big market team), they spend the money and in some cases overpay, knowing that by the end of the contract, those elite players skills might diminish, but not to the point where they would not still be above-average players. The Cubs don’t have any competition for Fielder/Pujols from the big-market teams because 1B is filled for them. So there really aren’t any excuses to be made if the Cubs miss out.
And if the Cubs are stupid enough to miss out on both Pujols and Fielder as you seem to be implying is possible, then the $35-40M coming off the books should be spent on upgrading at other positions where we could use an elite bat. Maybe sign Jose Reyes and move Castro or Reyes over to 2B or 3B, sign CJ Wilson, who would be very good #3 starter on the Cubs, and then sign somebody cheaper than Pena to play 1B (maybe a Michael Cuddyer).
Or save the money you’d rather have the Cubs spend on Pena and invest it in the draft (go ahead and sign Dunston Jr, Gretzky, and that other guy we drafted who has signability issues to overslot money), the IFA market, and instead of adding 2 stud pitchers in 2013, you could add 3 (following the Giants & Phillies model of developing elite pitching staffs) and the money saved from not signing Pena could be used to pay some of the salary given to Matt Cain and Jeff Weaver because the Cubs wouldn’t have spent $20M on Pena. The Cubs could also make a run at CC Sabathia (who is certain to opt out of his Yankees contract) this offseason. There’s also the possibility of trading for a decent, cheaper 1B or perhaps signing or trading for David Wright and converting him to 1B. Also there’s also the potential of signing Joey Votto after the 2013 season.
But since you’re so stuck on the Cubs signing Pena if they don’t sign Fielder or Pujols, I’ll just throw out the name Lance Berkman. I’d much rather have him over Pena. He’s a couple years older, but he has a much better track record than Pena (career wOBA of 400 versus 360 for Pena) and he could probably be had on a 1-2 year deal (with a player, team, or mutual option) for less money than Pena. The Cubs could have and should have signed Berkman over Pena this offseason, but Jim Hendry is an idiot and spent $2M more on Pena, while Berkman tears the cover off the ball for the Cardinals
Again, no need for the Cubs to overpay for a non-elite, Boras client who has been in decline for a a few years now, irrespective of his foot problems. I think we just differ philosophically, it looks like you’d rather have the Cubs spend money on the FA market for the sake of spending it, and I’d rather have them use the FA market to sign elite, difference-making players for the most part. It seems like that is what the big market teams that we are trying to emulate do. Your way has been the Cubs way for a very, very long time (as evidenced by DCFs post) and it hasn’t really worked very well for the Cubs, has it? Why not try something different and model the RSox, Phillies, and Yankees for a change……
+1
The one advantage of the Cubs’ situation is that they need to improve virtually everywhere. As a result , there shouldn’t be the types of “forced” signings we saw with Bradley and , to a lesser extent, Kosuke. Some needs are more critical than others but I’m sure you guys get the point.
by Mmurton on Jun 29, 2011 6:51 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Here's hoping Pena stays hot and they trade him for some young talent
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jun 30, 2011 11:56 AM CDT reply actions
Speak of the Devil...
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/trade-candidate-carlos-pena.html
Here is the MLBTR rundown on Pena. My opinion is that the Cubs need to move toward a team that is younger and with more upside if they want to win games again. If they can get Fielder, I’d rather them not take the chance of having to deal with Pena at all in the off-season.
Unfortunately for us, Jorge Posada’s bat is coming around which probably rules out the Yankees as a trade candidate for Pena or Soriano.

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