2015 Home-built Cubs: Hitters
by FTLOTC on Jun 30, 2011 11:21 AM CDT
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PrintThe challenge: Construct the Cubs 2015 roster using only players currently in their system. (Let’s do hitters only in this post, and pitchers in a later post to keep things straight.) For simplicity’s sake, assume optimum health for all players and don’t worry about salary considerations. Feel free to use 2011 draftees, assuming they will sign, if you wish. Basically, what home-built roster would give the Cubs the highest chance of winning the World Series?
Here’s my attempt:
C: G Soto
1B: D Vogelbach (he may be fat, but love the plate discipline & power)
2B: J Baez (assuming he signs and slides over from SS)
3B: J Candelario (17 yr old tearing up the Dominican summer league with sick plate discipline)
SS: S Castro
LF: B Jackson
CF: M Szczur
RF: R Golden (has a long development path ahead, but excellent potential)
Backup C: W Castillo (honorable mention: S Clevenger, M Gibbs)
Reserve IF: D Barney, J Vitters, R Flaherty (honorable mention: DJ LeMahieu, J Bour)
Reserve OF: T Colvin, J-H Ha
What's your take? Have at it!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I don't know about vogelbach
But the others have a shot. Sczar looks very good so far and might be on the team next year. Hopefully Brett Jackson picks it up!
From the reports I've seen
Candelerio is going to be a 1B. Maybe he is athletic enough to shift to LF, though. Baez is the most likely one (or even Castro) to be the 3B of the future.
Candelario
Good to know about Candelario. Have had trouble finding much info on him.
Yeah, Badler over at BA is about the only one who knows anything about him.
But he’s pretty high on him. He was asked recently who he would take right now between Candelario and Martin Peguero, who I believe recieved the highest bonus of any Dominican position player last year. It was well over $1 million, even if he wasn’t the highest.
Anyway, Badler said that right now he would take Peguero, but that his answer could easily change after the season. That’s some pretty high praise for Candelario, IMO.
Hmm, this is tricky for sure:
C: Soto
1B: Vitters
2B: LeMahieu
SS: Castro
3B: Baez
LF: Jackson
CF: Szczur
RF: Colvin
Backups:
C: Clevenger
IF: Barney, Flaherty, Lake
OF: Ha, Golden
Pierre LePage will be the AAA player DS falls in love with who will be out of options by 2016 and we are forced to trade (I kid, I kid… sort of!)
Colvin
I still think he has a spot on this team, and with a little confidence boost coming from working in Iowa/September call up and consistant playing time, he’ll be our CF next year with Fuk gone and Byrd in right
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Colvin's plate discipline
While Colvin may get an opportunity to start next year, I’m concerned that he will not be a viable starting OFer due to his lack of plate discipline. Even in Iowa this year, he has a K/BB of 3/26.
That being said, if his defense is solid in CF, he may display enough power to be an average hitter, which would make him a valuable commodity, at least in his team-controlled years.
I agree with you on Colvin.
He is not learning anything in AAA. 26 K’s to 3 BB’s. Those numbers while a small sample size are even worse than Colvin’s last minor league stint in 2009.. I really don’t see much future for Colvin except as a reserve outfielder and at this point I’m not sure that is a given.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Jackson has a much better chance of being the CF next season
and it definitely won’t be Colvin. If Colvin is starting, it’ll be in RF. Byrd would be the CF in your scenario.
Soto
I think he’s gone in a year or two for Clevenger/Castillo
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Good point
In 2015, Soto will be 33, which is fairly old for a catcher. The Cubs are getting his peak years now prior to free agency, and it may be best to cut ties when he becomes a free agent after the 2013 season when he becomes expensive.
These obviously won't all be Cubs by 2015, and certainly won't all be starters
C: Castillo
1B: Vogelbach
2B: Baez
SS: Castro
3B: Vitters
LF: Jackson
CF: Szczur
RF: Colvin
Backups: Clevenger/Gibbs/Lopez, Barney, Flaherty, Ha, Golden
No way Ha and Golden are backup OFs though. They’re going to be starters somewhere or busts. In my scenario, LeMahieu was traded because he’s worthy of starting somewhere.
No way Golden sneaks in there over Colvin.
And I wouldn’t imagine all these guys are playing and starting. Perhaps we get Fielder.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jun 30, 2011 5:44 PM CDT reply actions
These things are always "if everything works out perfectly"
in which case Golden most definately would be starting in place of Colvin. His ceiling is much, much higher than Colvin’s. His floor is also much, much lower.
Do you feel lucky?
I agree with you on Golden. He likely won’t be there but I’m pretty confident Colvin won’t be there either.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Why?
He’s already proven he can perform well at the major league level. He was arguably our best hitter last year.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 1, 2011 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
He wasn't, and it isn't arguable.
Geo Soto was far and away the best hitter on the team last year.
"Arguably"
He had the 3rd best OPS, and 2 points behind Sori.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 1, 2011 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions
OPS doesn't tell the half of it
Or more precisely, tells half the story wrong (undervalues OBP). Check their wOBA and OPS+. Soto lead the team by 32 points in wOBA and 20 points in OPS+.
I didn't say he was better than Soto.
I said “3rd best OPS, and 2 points behind Sori.”
Ok, so he was our 2nd/3rd best hitter last year.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 1, 2011 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions
My bad, totally misunderstood you
thought you were saying Soto was not as good as Soriano. Colvin was one of our best hitters last year, which is kind of sad given how little he walked. I do like his power upside, but I’m not sure he can hold a regular gig without a few more walks.
This is true, but a 500 slugging would have been top 15 in the majors had he had enough at bats.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 2, 2011 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Lots of people have proven they can hit for a half-season.
Colvin’s second half wasn’t very good except for some home runs.
But to your question, why? It is very simple, players with K/BB ratios like his very rarely ever succeed. He swings and misses at too many bad pitches. I don’t see his skill level as that good to overcome that. Even a notorious bad ball hitter like Vlad Guerrero has never struck out 100 times in a season and his career K/BB is around 1.5. Colvin’s last season was over 3.
His AAA numbers this year are terrible too so he isn’t learning anything. Unless he completely remakes his swing which is unlikely, his chance of succeeding is very low.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
My attempt
C: Clevenger/Castillo tandem
1B: Baez
2B: Flaherty
SS: [Nominally, Junior Lake, see below]
3B: Castro
LF: Jackson
CF: Szczur
RF: Ha
DH: Crawford
Barney and DJL get traded for useful parts while late in club control. Vitters is on the team in the Micah Hoffpauir role.
While tearing up AA, Golden gets traded for a #2 starter and a serviceable veteran SS, allowing Castro to move to 3B.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??
If Junior Lake makes the Cubs
He won’t be playing SS. And I doubt Evan Crawford is ever more than a 4th OF. But this all for fun because there’s going to be a lot of change between now and 2015.
Lake
I think like Golden, he’s a high ceiling player with a high chance of busting. Plate discipline is a huge issue for him (71/10 K/BB between A+ and AA).
His defense isn’t strong enough to displace Castro from SS, is it?
I just needed a body to stand a SS for the exercise
I think Castro will be moved to 3B by 2014, as:his body fills out and he hits his prime, especially once Pena leaves and Castro’s error rate goes up.
Then they’ll have to trade for a veteran SS.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??
Crawford's speed makes him a Tony Campana candidate
If he can play defense (what’s the scouting report?) he could make the team
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
That's why I put Crawford at DH
I don’t know if his defense can cut it. But if he can hit a little better than Campana, he could be a #1/#9 hitter against starting pitchers on whom it is easier to steal.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??
RF: Golden
C: Soto
Utility: Blake DeWitt, Darwin Barney, Lake, Flaherty
Backup C: Castillo
DJ LeMahieu
My impression is that he offers little in the way of patience or power. His offensive value would then be very dependent on his batting average. If he can keep the average over .300 and play decent defense, I could see him being an average 2B. Is this a fair assessment?
Defensively he's got the potential to be an average glove at 2B
He has the potential to hit for a high average, but will never likely take a lot of walks. He will likely add a decent amount of power for a 2B, he’s got a great frame at 6’4" and he’s pretty athletic.
I can see him having a .310/.350/.450 line or so. He should, at his ceiling, be more than just an average 2B.
Agree on this analysis and
I hope for more. Chase utley found his
Power at 24/25, and I hold out hope Lemahieus size and athleticism allow him to keep growing as a hitter. He had a couple abs in the big leagues where I saw the potential for patience….like Castro he’s a natural hitter who’ll get more selective as pitchers try pitching to him different…IMO.
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 5:31 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
My thoughts
C Castillo/Clevenger
1B Vitters/Flaherty
2B Lake
3B Baez
SS Castro/Barney
LF Ha/Colvin
CF Szczur/Crawford
RF Jackson
The second name at the position is the backup. Actually, I doubt Colvin would still be around. Just guessing on Lake and Baez vs. LeMahieu.
Summary: very RH lineup, excellent OF defense, sketchy IF defense.
Angel Guzman is the man.
I don't think Golden
ever makes it. No DP, much too raw. Just don’t see it happening. I also don’t think Colvin ever becomes a starter. It’s time to accept the fact that his DP isn’t going to improve much at this point, and that’s going to prevent him from starting. I think he can make a career as a great PH/4th OF though. The power is there.
For the others, I’m confident that Szcuzur and Baez and Jackson are solid contributors, if not more. But…that’s about it. I just can’t trust a bat that has less than solid DP without an extremely high graded hit tool. LeMahieu may be able to pull that off though…
Golden has pretty impressive PD for an 18 year old actually (13% BB%)... his main knock is work ethic and K%
Also, seems odd to be low on Golden and high on Baez, a guy we haven’t even signed yet and has never taken a professional pitch?
Actually
Reports are that Golden’s work ethic is terrific……during the season. He just got into trouble over the winter. My guess is that he will be attending Camp Colvin all winter.
Fair enough, I should have clarified that statement and you are correct.
I’ve read he has a great work ethic when he is being coached – it seems when he is not being coached he gets a bit lazy. He’d be a great guy for a camp Colvin.
Baez
Honestly, I don’t think he ever plays a game for the Cubs. I think he will be one of the main pieces in a Felix Hernandez deal in a few years. Yes, I’m psychic. Just remember this when it happens, and if it doesn’t we can all have a good laugh about it.
Can I start laughing about it now?
I kid, I kid….
DP?
Isn’t it a little premature to start labeling Golden as having no plate discipline? He’s 18, split his time in highschool between baseball and football, and has walked 7 times in his first 12 games this season. We don’t know nearly enough about either his natural tendencies or his ability to take coaching and learn to be selective at this point.
Seems fair to give Golden some time before drawing conclusions
From Goldstein at BP on Golden:
“Crazy tools picks from last year is not looking nearly as raw as expected; .326/.420/.535 in 12 games.”
What about pitching??
Appears very thin in minors and Z, Demp nearing the end of the line surely won’t be here in5 yrs.
Pitching is actually quite deep, it's just 2-4 years away.
We’ve got a quite a few high upside arms on their way up – quite a few TOR quality pitchers and some really solid back of the rotation types. We’ve got some really strong bullpen options coming up with Carpenter already here, Dolis, Cashner (could go either way), etc.
Keep an eye on guys like Kirk, Struck, Beeler, Wells and a lot of others lower in the system who have top 1-3 potential
Re: Bullpen arms
We honestly are loaded with them right now. I might be getting ahead of myself, but we might even be able to throw Larry Suarez back into the mix as a possible bullpen arm sometime down the road. He’s been nothing short of terrific so far this year.
Mine
C- Soto
1B- Vogelbach
2B- Flaherty
SS- Castro
3B- Baez
LF- Ha
CF- Szczur
RF- Jackson
Bench-
Clevenger
Lake
Barney
Colvin
Vitters
LeMaheiu
I feel like Flaherty will develop into an offensive minded 2B, although Lake looks like he’s handled his promotion well too. I just have more confidence in Ryan than I do Junior. I think Baez and Vogelbach both hit for power, and Vitters takes a bench role, as the infield version of Colvin. (A hitter with pop, but no patience.) Castro remains at short, because he never develops the 20+ homer power, but his tools DO refine. Ha becomes similiar to Juan Encarnacion, a player with 15-20 HR power, and a cannon in the outfield. Jackson is similiar, in regards to having multiple decent tools, but nothing exceptional beyond speed. And Szczur becomes the leadoff man we’ve been looking for since Kenny Lofton, and before that Jerome Walton. Soto remains with the club, as a streaky, but inconsistent hitting catcher. Clevenger develops into a really good backup.
Personally, I’d like to sell high now on Barney, with the surplus of good hitting middle in fielders we have in the system. But if not, he’s an ideal utility infielder. LeMahieu could very well start at second over Flaherty, if he ever develops the power. And Golden could really develop, too. However, my gut feeling says no.
Finally, Gary Scott returns to Wrigley Field, and valet parks cars outside the stadium, if you let him smell your hair.
Can't we go ahead and officially replace Wayne Messmer with Dwight Smith?
The Cubs will...
have a different upper management team in place by 2015 (i hope). The offense, defense, and pitching approach of the entire system will change dramatically after Hendry is gone. I hope Maddux will be a part of the rebuilding process.
Hmmm....
C- Castillo
1B- Vogelbach
2B- Baez
3B- Lake
SS- Castro
LF-Jackson
CF- Szczur
RF- Golden
Bench-
C- Gibbs
OF- Ha
OF- Chen
IF- Lemahieu
IF- Flaherty
I would love to see Golden and Lake turn out, I think both have some huge upside. Castro is the face of the team, Szczur is the next Shane Victorino, Jackson puts up a few 20-20 seasons, Baez and Vogelbach turn into 30+ HR guys, and Castillo plays solid D with 15 HR a year. The bench has versatile defensive guys, solid pinch hitters, and lefty-righty balance.
Also in 2015
Candelario is one baseball’s hottest prospects and absolutely tearing up AA pitching. He’s packaged with Dustin Gieger and Carlos Penalver to trade for a TOR starter at the trade deadline to solidfy the 2015 team’s only hole, and go on to sweep the Miami in the world series….
I thought Baez sliding over to 3rd was the likely end result?
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
It's a possible result, so is 2B.
It’s way to early to decide anything like that. He could also end up in a corner OF spot.
Just realized I haven't done one yet
I get to cheat and use new bonus baby Marck Malave at C.
C – Marck Malave
1B – Daniel Vogelbach
2B – Starlin Castro
SS – Carlos Penalver
3B – Javier Baez
LF – Brett Jackson
CF – Matt Szczur
RF – Reggie Golden
Bench – Wellington Castillo
Bench – Jae-Hoon Ha
Bench – Ryan Flaherty
Bench – DJ LeMahieu
Bench – Pin-Chieh Chen
I wish those guys would be ready by 2015...
But you’re talking about a 16 and 17 year old in Malave and Panalver, they’d be 20 and 21 respectively to start the 2015 season. If they’re both ready, I’d be beyond floored.
Me too
But these things are always best-case-scenario.
I like it
Penalver is a very interesting prospect. He tends to remind me a bit of Rangers prospect Profar, but obviously not enough known about him until he gets stateside.
I think him and Candelario, assuming they come stateside next season
Will give the system some more big time hitters to watch, along with Baez and Vogelbach. Now if only we can get some pitchers!
Castro isn't moving away from SS
They Cubs have deemed him their Jeter and, unless something changes dramatically, he is going to stay at SS. They have already invested a lot of time teaching him the position and I don’t see them backing down now. Unlike Jeter, his issues aren’t his range, so he is actually a natural SS he just needs more experience. Castro’s issues are picking the ball more cleanly and getting his throws under control.
I think they will probably use any developing SS as trade bait in the mean time. It makes sense, too. You can sell high on shortstops with a high projection.
by subtle on Jul 11, 2011 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed completely.
The whole move him off SS thing is the usual reactionary bs…To put it in my “I apparently like being liked by no one” way.
Look at Han-Ram
That’s what I think will happen to Castro. I think he’ll outgrow the position. I’m not taking him off SS because I think he’s terrible there. He has all the tools right now to be a very successful defensive SS. If he gains 20 lbs and fills out, he likely loses his range.
Look at Jeter or Ripken...
Offensive SS’s usually outgrow the position…ARod fits here too…all these guys have bigger frames than Castro. Like subtle said, the Cubs have chosen him to be their Jeter, and it’s going to take a whole lot of sucking to move him off SS.
I disagree
But we’ll have to just wait and find out what happens. It’s important to note that neither the Yanks nor the O’s had a legit big league SS to come through the system, either. We have the potential for a few.
I don’t see the Castro/Jeter comps, either. Castro’s body will likely take the Han-Ram path, not the Jeter path.
Right now, yes
I happen to think that by 2015, Castro will have matured and gained enough weight to where his range is affected at SS. Enter Carlos Penalver in my extremely optomistic hypothetical above, who likely won’t get very big and is supposed to be a very good SS.
Through Wilken’s drafts and IFA, we are a system that has a good amount of guys that can play SS. Hopefully, Castro’s bat will be able to play anywhere, which means we could put an elite defensive player, whose bat might only play at SS, on the field. Obviously Castro is the guy at SS until that happens.
Slighty OT: Hak-Ju Lee just jumped to #22 on BA's mid-season top 100
He rose 70 spots probably based on how well he’s swinging the stick this season.
:(
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