2015 Home-built Cubs: Pitchers
by FTLOTC on Jul 1, 2011 1:06 PM CDT
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PrintThe challenge: Construct the Cubs 2015 pitching staff using only players currently in their system. (See yesterdays post for position players.) For simplicity’s sake, assume optimum health for all players and don’t worry about salary considerations. Feel free to use 2011 draftees, assuming they will sign, if you wish. Constructing the pitching staff seems like more of a crap shoot than selecting position players due to the high attrition rate of pitchers throughout the development process, so rather than trying to select an 11 or 12 man staff, I decided to classify pitchers into general categories:
Starting rotation
Potential top-of-the-rotation starters: McNutt, Cashner
Potential mid-rotation starters: Garza, Simpson, Beeler, N Struck
Potential back-of-the-rotation starters: A Kirk, R Whitenack, J Jackson, H-W Chen, D-E Rhee, Z Rosscup
Bullpen
Potential high-leverage relievers: C Marmol, S Marshall, C Carpenter, R Dolis, L Suarez
Potential mid-leverage relievers: J Gaub, A Cabrera, K Rhoderick, J Beliveau, J Serrano, B Wallach, A Kurcz, F Batista, S Maine
Very young, wait & see
Y-L Wang, B Wells, A Reed, L Liria, W Cruz, S Peralta, T Zych
What's your take? Have at it!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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If "TOR" includes #2 starters
then I think Garza belongs in the first group. He certainly has the potential to be a solid #2. (And I hope everyone who thinks Garza killed my puppy sees this.) I think it is more likely he is a #3 starter, but since we’re really talking ceilings here, he should move up.
In the same regard, I think Cashner has to move down. It is too hard to discount health. Beyond that, he’s really a two-pitch pitcher. The fastball and breaking ball (sometimes) say TOR… but the rest (command, other pitches) says mid-rotation.
Suarez has done little in his time in the minors, so him in the top group of relievers seems like a reach. On the other hand, Rhoderick was a college closer and has been shooting up the minors. I think his ceiling would be that of a set-up guy, which I would consider high leverage.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
I think Cashner can make progress with a changeup..:
quickly. Hes got the arm action and mechanics for it.
Garza, as it stands right now, is the best combination of upside, performance, ML readiness, and stuff in the organization. His upside continues to be underrated. If he was drafted by the Cubs rather than traded for I think this would be more universally recognized. Look how much credit Mcnutt gets for ~100 innings in high a…Weve seen a bunch of AL East pitchers come over to the NL and really step their game up in recent years…just because this guy cost a couple prospects it seems to be ignored that he’s very lsignificantly talented.
by SenorGato on Jul 1, 2011 3:16 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I couldn't possibly care less who drafted Garza.
I’ve told you dozens of times I think Garza is talented. I’d think my first post in this thread would serve as a pretty good example.
We’ll see about that AL East thing. You swore up and down in the offseason Garza would have an ERA under 3.50. He’s gonna have to roll out under 3.00 the rest of the way to get there.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
by fsuapollo on Jul 1, 2011 8:35 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Whoa whoa whoa...
1) I wasnt talking about you specifically.
2) we’ve seen the al east guys with halladay getting more K’s, Lilly getting better, and carpenter becoming a legit ace. Everyone seems to k more guys, keep the ball in the ballpark a little better, and generally thrive.
3) If the team had a better defense he’d have a better era. He’s not a good defender himself, but that’s just part of the project that is the cubs right now. You otoh brought up his k rates all the time…what to say of that? Or his groundballs? Sample size, I’m guessing? is it that hard to admit beig a little wrong on garza?
by SenorGato on Jul 1, 2011 11:08 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
...
You replied to me and we’ve debated this for a while, so the post was clearly a directed response.
Many pitchers do thrive by switching leagues. Not all do. Not a hard concept.
BS on the Ks. Find one post where I said Garza’s K rate wouldn’t improve and I will eat a tremendous plate of crow.
On GB rate: yes, I’d say given that a league switch wouldn’t be associated with THAT drastic an improvement in GB rate that more than 14 starts would be needed to say this will be an improvement that sticks.
And you absolutely, positively do NOT get to use the Cubs terrible D as a cop-out. I/We told you the Cubs awful D and hitters park would cancel out all or most of any benefit from a league switch. You just stomped your feet and said “league switch… league switch…LEAGUE SWITCH!!”
So when it comes to admitting being wrong about Garza… I don’t know. You tell me.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
by fsuapollo on Jul 2, 2011 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yay here we go again
1) why not point out some of these pitchers? Did they fail due to health? Were they already bad pitchers? Who are these guys? Sounds like a copout.
2) you ripped on his k rates constantly this offseason. That said, I was still addressing the many BCBers who pointed to his k rate as a flaw.
3) there’s a shocker…sample size for the GBs…meanwhile you cling to ERA in 2011 for a pitcher posting fielding independent
numbers at ~3.
4) lol the league switch is going to last more than a year. Seriously…is it hard that hard to admit you were wrong about a pitcher you’ve seen considerably less than me? The Cubs d is hurting him NOW. There is no reason to think it will stay that way. I’m going to tell you that you have way too much invested on being “right” on garza and it’s causing you to underrate him still. It’s funny how slowly but surely you move up with him…he’s went from a 3 to a 2 in your eyes in mere months…and this is without putting up the precious era numbers of a 2. Funny how that works, right?
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 2:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
There's no need to rehash all this.
One: the lists have been posted. And I’ve explained the concept of a statistical average to you. You can’t seem to grasp it, so I don’t really know what else to tell you.
Two: Categorically incorrect.
Three: Garza’s 2011 ERA is within 0.1 of his career ERA. I’d say that’s a large enough sample. His GB rate otoh is markedly different as is his HR rate. I hope this year’s rates are representative of what we will see going forward.
Four: The Cubs are traditionally a subpar fielding club. We all hope that changes, but I will believe it when I see it.
Nothing has changed in my view of Garza. Literally nothing. I always said he was a three with the upside of a two. Always.
And I can’t fathom what I have “invested” in being “right”. If I’m “wrong” the Cubs benefit…so I’m actually much more “invested” in that outcome.
If I’m wrong, I will happily eat crow. Your posting history suggests it is awfully unlikely you’d take the same action.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Sigh
1) I do not recall some lists. It can’t be that hard if you’re so consider in this point.
2) as this seems to e how this works…whatever you say.
3) lol so the era is a large sample because it fits what you want, but te groundballs and such are in question. Awesome. Meanwhile, his fielding independent numbers read much stronger than ever, and he continues to pitch extremely well here including today.
4) and that defense is hurting his ERA this year as most if not all of his other stats scream a much better pitcher.
5) lawlz. I’ve admitted multiple times here alone when I’m wrong. I will continue to do so. Congrats on playing the dated but clever “if I’m wrong the cubs are right which is good” card. It’s really not hard…and it’s becoming increasingly obvious the guy is just plain better than you painted him as.
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 5:26 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Whatever.
You can’t seem to grasp the notion of an average or that career stats would be a large enough sample.
The rest is your usual unsubstantiated, nonsensical blathering.
I have no need to apologize for thinking Garza is a 2/3 starter.
You can keep thinking Russell is a starting pitcher, DeWitt is the next great supersub, and that Garza is a future Cy Young winner. Good luck with all that.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Lol you just don't want to admit being wrong do you?
No need to act like a child about it…we’ve all been wrong before. Calling my argument nonsensical doesn’t mean much to me from you because I know what I’m saying makes sense. I know I’ve watched garza as a pitcher far longer than you, I know that I’ve seen very good al east pitchers become even better in the NL, I know that along with alot of air outs he also gets more infield flyouts than most pitchers, and I know when I’m seeing a pitcher on the way up.
Enjoy being wrong on garza as best you stubbornly can’t, because I sure am. Funny how you had to reach in the Russell/Dewitt basket…I’d say handle your stuff but in my dealings with you that is how you handle it…good day and I guess good luck in your quest to be right.
by SenorGato on Jul 3, 2011 11:43 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I have no doubt that what you're saying makes sense to you.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
To anyone who doesn't mind critical analysis.
I’ve said it before…I think Garza will play the Cain to guynothereyet Lincecum in the future. It will be good.
You keep clinging to the hope that he stays the same pitcher he was in the AL East from ages what…22-26…so that you can be right. Since it’s that tough to admit that your analysis of garza (and I’m going beyond that 2/3, the overall picture you painted of the guy was bleak and your analysis of the trade was bleak…for instance you’re one of the group who thought Archer at least had Garzas upside) was just plain wrong. He’s been here half a season and he’s already the best pitcher on the team. Plus, even I know youre not actually lame enough to seriously believe evaluating pitchers based on ERA. Enjoy watching his ERA get smaller.
by SenorGato on Jul 3, 2011 3:34 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
To describe what you do as critical analysis is an insult to intelligent people everywhere.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Says the guy who's argument is hanging on
ERA.
by SenorGato on Jul 4, 2011 1:48 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Re: Archer's sample size and evaluating the trade
If you’re so quick to bury him based on his numbers so far this year, shouldn’t you also be quick to say that Lee is one of the best, if not the best, SS prospects in baseball right now?
I mean if we’re determining upside on the numbers since the trade, then shouldn’t this kind of assessment also make significant note of how Guyer has been tearing up the IL?
"Playoffs?!" -Jim Mora
by Castro Por Presidente on Jul 5, 2011 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Little prospect by the name of Manny Machado would like a word with your "top SS prospect" list
Just sayin… Lee is probably top 2-4 in the SS list right now depending on who you ask.
If you were going based on numbers since the trade
Lee has gotta take top honors. Machado is the better prospect, of course, but SG was touting the Garza trade based on Garza’s #s and Archer’s #s since the trade so I thought it was important to include Lee’s and Guyer’s in that time-span as well.
"Playoffs?!" -Jim Mora
by Castro Por Presidente on Jul 5, 2011 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
No.. Machado is 18 and has a .379 wOBA in A
And was just promoted to A+… 3+ years younger than Lee.
It really isn’t even a contest, Machado blows Lee away on the top SS prospect list.
you realize that Machado has < .500 ops in A+?
Small sample size, yes. That was my point.
"Playoffs?!" -Jim Mora
by Castro Por Presidente on Jul 6, 2011 12:29 AM CDT up reply actions
You're going to judge an 18 (19 today, happy b-day)
on 30 some plate appearances?? He’s 3 years younger than Lee at the same level currently and putting up better stats than Lee did at 2-3 years younger.
Machado is commonly top 3 on prospect lists right now behind Trout and Harper.
Agree with your general premise...
It was a short-sighted trade considering that we weren’t likely to contend this year and may not contend next year. Garza has been good, but he’s going to get expensive very soon and he may even be gone by the time we’re competing.
Archer has struggled, but Fuld has contributed, Lee has been fantastic in A+ ball, and Guyer (though less of a prospect) has raked in AAA.
Time will tell, but it seemed like a trade that didn’t need to happen. There would likely be somebody of Garza’s quality (and arbitration status) available in a year or two when we are (hopefully) ready to compete again. Lee and Archer could then be explored further as possible contributors to our future.
It may work out that Lee and Archer never amount to much. If so, we may end up “winning” the deal. But in terms of prospect value and immediate future of the team, it was probably not the right trade.
it is not as if there has to be a winner and a loser in a trade
both could end up winning … or losing.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 5, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed...
Although in this case, I think we set ourselves up to not win, because we gave up two of our top prospects for a guy who will either be gone or very expensive by the time were may not be around by the time we would likely be competitive again.
I have no problem with trading top prospects for a guy who puts us over the top. But this was a team that was likely to be mediocre this year and maybe next. Garza is the type of addition you make if you expect to make a run in the next year or two, and this team wasn’t in that position when the deal was made.
I tend to agree with you
the Cubs screwed up getting Garza with the unrealistic hope of competing this season. However, Garza is young and could be part of a better rotation down the line.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 5, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
At the moment, Garza looks like the only guy in the org who might be in the rotation in 2 years.
I don’t know whether that makes me happy or mortified. But honestly, I expect our 2013 rotation to be:
Garza
New Guy #1
New Guy #2
New Guy #3
New Guy #4
And New Guys No. 1-4 are not currently in our system.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Jul 5, 2011 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I can see Z getting a new contract at a much much cheaper rate.
Big Z at 3yr/36MM with a 4th year option for another 12MM vesting if he meets goals. He is still quite young and seems to be getting smarter when it comes to pitching.
Yes, that would be a solid decision.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Jul 5, 2011 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Cashner if he can stay healthy
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 6, 2011 7:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Missing a season with a shoulder injury does not bode well for future health.
I’m not writing anyone off. But I’m not writing them in, either. I hope he gets better soon. But shoulders seem to be the last true mystery of modern medicine.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Jul 6, 2011 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions
true, but too soon to write him off yet
Closing may be in his future instead of starting
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 6, 2011 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Yep, pretty much on the same page as you
The trade for Garza makes sense if we are able to field a legitimate contender in 2011 or 2012. After that we will be paying him FA dollars for the years where we are likely to finally be able to field a very competitive team. What we did was remove some pieces that could be very good and very cheap for the next championship window for a very good piece that will be cheap while our window is closed. In doing so, we might have even extended the time before we have another legitimate window to win a WS.
That trade was interesting in general, because you have a team in the midst of their championship window trading a usable piece to restock their farm system and a team that depletes their farm system to avoid being viewed as “rebuilding”. I know some people think the Cubs should never rebuild due to their market size, but refusing to admit we’re already there is going to keep this team mediocre forever.
"Playoffs?!" -Jim Mora
by Castro Por Presidente on Jul 5, 2011 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Remember, though, that...
…. after that, contracts like Zambrano’s and Dempster’s will be off the books.
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Here's the thing...
If the Cubs do spend that freed up money this offseason wisely, a big if I guess, and they do contend in 2012 then Garza is a lock to be a big part of that.
If the Cubs sat still and kept those guys to wait on the future those guys MIGHT be part of that championship future.
by SenorGato on Jul 5, 2011 6:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
However far ahead that future may be...
4-5-6-7-8-9-10 years…whenever the future hits.
by SenorGato on Jul 5, 2011 6:39 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
As you said, that's a big "if"
They’ll need to improve a spot or two in the rotation, the bullpen, 1B, RF, and 3B in order to contend. That’s asking a lot of the organization to get so many things right. I’d expect bullpen and maybe a 1B this offseason, so I think contention may still be dubious next year.
I know that some like to pull out the “so apparently we need an all star at every position” argument in response to what I just said, but the reality is that we don’t have all-star quality at any position other than maybe SS (he’s borderline but getting better), 3B (Ramirez is topping NL 3B in OPS, but he may be gone next year), and C (Soto’s had a down year, but he’s been right up there with McCann).
We don't need to go outside to improve the bullpen
We have plenty of in system guys who should be good and ready.
You cannot ignore that
the Cubs, unlike the Rays, are ready and willing to spend money to win.
Theres a huge difference in how the two operate because of that. You think the Red Sox care that it took Hanley Ramirez to get Josh Beckett? And unlike Archer (especially) and Lee (somewhat considering last year was his first year of press and he’s 2-3 years away), the Sox sold low on Ramirez after souring on him a little publically. Cue something about how it’s different because the red sox don’t finish below .500 and Beckett was a playoff monster on a WS winner. At the time of the trade becketts career value was ~13 WAR. His first season with the sox was worth 2.1 WAR. His next season was 6.5 WAR. Garza was worth rough 10…this year he’s at 2.4. At 27 he’s very early prime….just one less worry for the future.
by SenorGato on Jul 5, 2011 7:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
You can't possibly compare the Cubs and Sox
The Sox have for a long time leveraged their willingness to spend money to win in the draft to bring in premium talent year in and year out. You’re right, they’re consistently one of the best teams in the league and almost always draft below the Cubs and yet they still get more out of the draft than the Cubs.
Parts of that is the way they collect extra picks through the FA system. Part of that is that they are willing to spend a lot of money to buy players with pricetags that teams like the Cubs balk at. Part of that is that they miss on fewer high picks, for whatever reason.
Throwing out the Beckett comp is all well and good, but the two trades are not even close to the same situation until the Cubs are either 1. actual contenders or 2. prove that they can consistently develop talent that will contribute.
The Cubs are willing to spend, yes, there’s no question. If only they would be willing to spend intelligently.
I’m not saying Garza isn’t a good player, I’m saying we improved the 2011-2012 teams considerably when those teams are very unlikely to be good. And we did it at the expense of later teams that are likely to have a better chance of being good.
The timing is terrible for building a legitimate contender for a WS title, but the timing is fantastic for building a team that gives Cubs fans a small hope that maybe everything can go perfectly for the Cubs. It allowed people to think the Cubs aren’t in fullblown rebuilding mode; it probably sold season tickets. I understand the dollar is king and that’s probably why the move was made. But I only care about maximizing the odds of putting a team on the field that will win a WS, and so I can’t be behind the trade.
"Playoffs?!" -Jim Mora
by Castro Por Presidente on Jul 6, 2011 12:59 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
What does that even kind of have to do with them
not losing sleep over trading Ramirez for Beckett?
That literally told me nothing except what I knew I’d hear here, which has nothing to do with what I said.
by SenorGato on Jul 6, 2011 9:24 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Dude I was on Lee much earlier than most here.
by SenorGato on Jul 5, 2011 6:42 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Ok.
That has zero to do with the trade.
"Playoffs?!" -Jim Mora
by Castro Por Presidente on Jul 6, 2011 1:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Uuuummmmm
Lee was part of the trade and you made some comment about how I wasn’t giving him credit for being the top SS prospect in the minors (which he’s not anyway). Oh and we have one of those guys who used to be a top SS prospect in the minors….he’s playing in the majors…Starlin something.
by SenorGato on Jul 6, 2011 9:30 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Uuuummmmm
Lee was part of the trade and you made some comment about how I wasn’t giving him credit for being the top SS prospect in the minors (which he’s not anyway). Oh and we have one of those guys who used to be a top SS prospect in the minors….he’s playing in the majors…Starlin something.
by SenorGato on Jul 6, 2011 9:30 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes, Starlin is playing SS
he just isn’t playing it well. -5.4 UZR in 2011 = a future at another position. I love Castro, but he’s a big league SS in name only at this point.
The guy is 21.
No one is moving him at SS. The only place seriously considering that is here, where good ideas like that are always abound.
You don't move a 21 year old because of a -5.4 UZR in 80 some games...
He has shown he has the range, the glove, the hands and the arm to be well above average at SS. He makes a lot of stupid mistakes that cost him in ZR, but that will improve as he learns the position better.
This is one of those times when the eye test shows that defensive metrics will never truly be accurate.
Also, his value plummets if you put him at 3B...
He’s not exactly A Rod with the bat yet, and we have no idea how far his power will even develop.
Exactly.
The only places that even kind of makes sense if the Cubs felt stupid enough to move him off of SS would be 2B or CF. He does not have a 3B’s bat.
Plus, athletically through the eye test he can pass at SS. Hes got to learn to play it better, but he’s not incapable.
And what a waste to put that arm at 2B....
If he ever becomes accurate, watch out, he’s got a cannon.
Fair enough
But until he starts to play better defense, it’s still just potential at this point and he’s still a liability defensively. What happens if potential doesn’t materialize? If he sticks at short, then I’m all for it – makes us a better team as long as the glove plays there.
You know who else was a liability at SS
defensively? Some guy named Jeter.
Jeter’s had maybe four seasons where he was a positive defender, and he’ll still walk away from the game as a SS with a couple of GGs.
The most important thing is that his bat plays there, as does his athleticism and arm.
Oh good
Then all we have to do is surround Castro with guys like Clemens, Cone, mussina, arod, teixeira, bernie Williams, tino martinez, a good alfonso soriano, Rivera, cc sabathia, Robinson cano, jorge posada, etc. Sounds easy enough – when can we start?
Wait wait wait.....
Castro can’t do this himself? We need more than one good player? DAMMIT someone let Jim know!
Oh and just a reminder since no one seems to give a damn...
surrounding him with good players already started. They kept the almost ready Jackson, who should see big league time this year. They traded for the 27 year old from Tampa (which I know means Hendry was banking on tihs year to some, but lets pretend we have him for 3 years and not just this one). They’re losing a ton of contracts that can be spent on a bat and maybe an arm or w/e makes the team better.
It’s a good thing this Castro fella is only 21. Gives them plenty of time (though still not alot) to put players around him.
But, but
I wanted to see Starlin at 2B and Lee at SS in a couple of years.
I see your point and can agree to an extent. He definitely has time to improve defensively at SS. I still really like my proposed double play combo above but there’s no use crying over spilled milk.
So, we have Starlin and Jackson on our opening day roster, we sign Fielder and we have Garza as a #2. Where do we go from there? We still have holes at 3B, 2B (Barney is not a long-term answer) and #1 SP and we have $25 million to spend. What do we do next?
And I’ve read your posts about Upton – gaining Upton means we lose Jackson so they both can’t be on the same roster (I’m a realist). Build me a 2012 or 2013 division champ from there.
Where to go from there...
Develop more young players to trade or call up, and being aggressive in FA.
For pitching help I’d look to sign CJ Wilson, though I worry those shady Rangers with their money from the gods might intervene. I’d also look to sign Beltran to help out Fielder/Pujols and play RF. Probably keep Ramirez too…I think that would do alot to help 2012’s team get taken seriously. Then for hte time being 2013 will be on the back burner…hopefully not all of those awesome pitchers sign extensions.
Potential is more important when looking at athletic ability or offensive ability
Defense can be learned… proper footwork just takes work, repetition, etc. It’s not a matter of him turning projection into production, it’s just a matter of he needs more time there.
He’s athletic, has a good first step, has a GREAT arm, has a good glove… just makes dumb mistakes. He’ll stick at SS as long as he wants to, and be at the very least average defensively in time.
At 3rd he’d be a well above average defender with a bat that is below average, a big loss IMO.
Whenever I see "TOR" I think "TORONTO"
Just sayin’.
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Agreed
If the “of” makes the cut, so should the “the.”. It should be TOTR, methinks.
by SouthernCub on Jul 2, 2011 9:46 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Why leave off what they are too? If we go that far we need to add in starting pitcher.
The new acronym will now be TOTRSP. Doesn’t it just flow off the tongue?
"TOTR" implies SP
And “TOTR” guy flows just as much as “TOR guy.”
by SouthernCub on Jul 2, 2011 10:11 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
For shiggles...
Garza
Cashner
Mcnutt
Simpson
Wells
Bullpen…iunno…I’m gonna go crazy and say Austin Reed perfects the change so much that he excels as a Keith foulke Trevor Hoffman type closer.
by SenorGato on Jul 1, 2011 3:20 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
We can't put McNutt or Cashner in front of Garza.
McNutt is struggling at AA. Cash is out indefinitely.
At the moment, the odds of either being better than Garza are loooooong.
What this exercise demonstrates, first and foremost, is that we need some FA help toot sweet.
Garza sticks out in that second group like a sore thumb. Hayden Simpson has a 5-plus ERA in the Midwest league. Mono or not, he doesn’t get a Garza comp.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Your post doesn't really show understanding of some of the things happening to our pitchers...
McNutt is struggling with blisters and other injuries, his numbers are pretty unimportant so far, he’s not really been healthy this year. When he has been healthy he’s looked solid if unspectacular.
Simpson has TOR stuff for sure – he was SO sick with mono he wasn’t even able to hold a baseball. He lost a LOT of weight and is still about 15-20 pounds below his weight last year and struggling to get his strength back. You can’t say “mono or not,” it’s literally a year long (or more) rebuilding process from being that sick.
If you’re talking ceiling, I think Garza, McNutt and Cashner are pretty close.
McNutt's peripherals look terrible this year.
If he’s injured, he shouldn’t be pitching. If he’s healthy, he isn’t striking anyone out.
Simpson… we’ll see. It may be a “wait until next year” situation. He’s certainly not still 15-20 pounds under his college playing weight. That was 170. He lost 15-20 pounds at his lowest point. He’d put almost all that weight back on by April, per Hendry.
I don’t know how you can possibly say that he has “TOR stuff for sure”. Is that based on what you’ve heard, secondhand and in retrospect, about his performance against NCAA Div. 2 competition? Or based on watching him get knocked around in his current weakened state?
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
As for Simpson...
It’s based on scouting reports I’ve read from people who have seen him first hand and people I have talked to. It’s about his complete arsenal of pitches and what those pitches can look like if he reaches his ceiling.
Obviously he’s a LOT of projection this year, but whether Hendry said he was back to his college weight by April, he’s still down a lot of muscle mass and endurance, which makes a big difference on numbers. I haven’t heard that he’s even actually back up to his weight before he got sick, I’ll have to see if that’s true. I’m not sure if you’ve ever had mono, but the disease is absolutely nasty if someone gets it bad, and Simpson’s case was about as bad as it gets from what I understand.
Yeah I've heard great things about
Simpsons stuff when healthy. Consistetly in the low to mid 90s with the fastball, and a knockout curveball. His arm action and athleticism are also plusses. I really like what I heard so it makes me patient with him. I’ve only seen his draft video (two different clips) on MLB.com, but I did come away impressed with his athleticism in his delivery.
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 10:23 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, given his scouting reports, age, and the mono incident...
I’m very willing to be patient on him. Obviously he’s all projection at this point. But I see no reason to get down on him after less than a half year as a professional.
Felix Hernandez
will be a Cub by then. But with just in system guys, I’ll go
Garza
Cashner
McNutt
Kirk
Simpson
I wish i could agree with King Felix.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 1, 2011 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I've just always seen it as one of those inevitable things
Like Gonzalez to Boston. We’ll have the need and system. We won’t be getting him in FA, so we have to trade for him.
I hope you're right.
That would be awesome. He’s one of the few pitchers I would blow the farm for. I would go
1. Felix
2. Cahill
3. Verlander
4. Lincecum
5. Kershaw
In that order.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 1, 2011 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Cahill?
Really? Maybe it’s because I’m no where close to Oakland, but I’ve literally heard nothing about him, certainly not in that company. I’d give Seattle whoever they wanted -Castro.
8-6, 3.28 not enough for a 23 year old?
8th highest WAR among pitchers in the AL.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 2, 2011 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Oakland
I live in Oakland, and they talk about Cahill like he’s the savior of the freaking organization. Brett Anderson as well, but he’s much more injury prone.
But I agree about selling the farm for Felix.
However, I’d hold out on Szczur, Jackson and Castro.
Can't we go ahead and officially replace Wayne Messmer with Dwight Smith?
Cahill is a stud
They also have Gio Gonzalez, who I would take over Anderson (and anyone in the Cubs’ organization). As for Anderson, he has great stuff but I agree, he is too injury prone. A lefthanded Harden it appears.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 2, 2011 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
You wouldn't be "selling the farm" if you kept Jackson and Szczur.
And there’s no way we would be able to get Felix without giving up at LEAST one of the two.
As of right now
You’d be 100% correct.
But, like RynoG said- I’m taking into account that we (hopefully) sign some of these high upside arms from this years draft.
Our farm system should be improving enough within the next couple years to swing a deal like that. (Although, I might rather just hang onto the plethora of prospects in some cases.)
Can't we go ahead and officially replace Wayne Messmer with Dwight Smith?
you should follow the game more closely
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 2, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
To be fair
The A’s are barely even covered in the bay area. Finding quality players within a small market requires reviewing their box scores at random, or being home and awake for Baseball Tonight.
Chicago should be well aware of Gio Gonzalez. But, Cahill and Anderson are quite a bit less known nationally.
Can't we go ahead and officially replace Wayne Messmer with Dwight Smith?
To be more fair,
any serious student of the game should be very aware of Cahill, a guy who won 18 games last season and had a sub 3 ERA.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 3, 2011 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
How do you know Gio and not know the other two?
Hell, Anderson is he best pitcher of the three when hes right. He was the belle of the ball a couple years ago after he want apecrazy on the sox (shutout 10k performance) and then the rest of the al after that start launches him.
by SenorGato on Jul 3, 2011 11:47 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Short term memory
Even Cubs fans probably remember hearing about ‘prospect’ Gio Gonzalez involved in nearly every trade conversation on the South side, 5-6 years ago.
Can't we go ahead and officially replace Wayne Messmer with Dwight Smith?
I'm going...
Felix
Kershaw
Verlander
CC
Price
Hamels
Lester
Lincecum
Cahill
Anderson
by SenorGato on Jul 1, 2011 11:13 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I think CC is too old
to raid the farm for.
I’d go
Felix
Verlander
Kershaw
Lincecum
Lester
Price
Pineda
If I had to pick two future greats amongst today's pitchers
I’d go CC and Verlander. CCs been a horse since he was 20/21 and hasn’t slowed down yet.
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 10:25 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I totally forgot about Price.
I would stick him between Verlander and Lincecum. And I agree with Ryno, CC is a little too old, I wouldn’t do it for anyone older than 28, or who doesn’t have sustained success for more than 2 years running. That effectively eliminates Hamels. I don’t know about Lester or Anderson, Anderson hasn’t been the same this year, and Lester is a fantastic pitcher, but I don’t know that I would consider him a top 15 pitcher in baseball.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 2, 2011 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Lester is certainly that.
Throw in park, division,league, handedness, stuff, command, performance…He’s top 10 in baseball IMO or very close.
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 10:26 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I dunno
Heck I can name 10 guys better off IMO the top of my head: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Jurrjens, Kershaw, Johnson, Verlander, Cahill, Felix, Lincecum.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 2, 2011 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Jurrjens is another guy.
He’ll probably be available this season, but is he good enough to warrant trading for? I think I’d rather hold out for an ace.
I'd take Lester over
Hamels due to health, jurjenns because he’s better, and Cahill because he’s better.
No love for ubaldo jimenez from anyone? One year wonder?
by SenorGato on Jul 3, 2011 3:15 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, as I said, I want to see more than 12 year of sustained success.
Thank god nobody was calling Edwin Jackson an ace 4 months into the 2009 season.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 3, 2011 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
*more than 1 year
SBN should get an edit feature.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 3, 2011 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
ubaldo was pretty damn good in the second half of 2009
Blake "The Franchise" DeWitt will lead us to the promised land
by jesus christos on Jul 3, 2011 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Oddly enough
I dont think I’d give up Castro. I’d look to load up pospects and ship them over to the Mariners.
by SenorGato on Jul 1, 2011 11:17 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Alot of this is based on me thinking the trade happen
During the winter or summer of 2013. either the move of the offseason or the move to catapult the team during the summer.
It’ll be the finishing touch, or close to it. I bet there’ll be tons of stories about how we need an ace because the Fielder/Pujols + Castro + + RF Carlos Beltran or Justin Upton long overdue here + hopefully Jackson, Lemahieu + Soto lineup is rocking Shyte.
Its all in my head.
by SenorGato on Jul 1, 2011 11:26 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Hey there's a good two years before I see Felix as a possibility...
But yeah for now it’s a fake either or situation.
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 2:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Mine
McNutt
Garza
Maples (Can we please just give him an over slot bonus and sign him?)
Cashner
Ben Wells
It was a tough call between Kirk and Wells. I don’t think Simpson ever puts it together. I worry that Whitenack might not continue pitching above his ceiling upon return. And I don’t know what the hell to think about Jay Jackson anymore. I think if any of our high return picks this year don’t sign (which seems likely) Carpenter has the stuff to step in.
Bullpen: Kurcz, Zych, Marshall, Dolis, Samardzija, Struck and hopefully Marmol.
Marmol’s drop in velocity and arm angles worry me about his long term health. Samardzija hopefully continues to grow in the bullpen role. It’s so tough to tell when his location is going to be completely void. But I think the system seems very deep in impact arms with great stuff. We could very well have a lockdown bullpen. The rotation still scares me a bit…And so does Mark Riggins.
That guy looks like he’s got a van full of kittens and Skittles, parked outside an elementary school.
Can't we go ahead and officially replace Wayne Messmer with Dwight Smith?
No way Riggins is here in 2015.
I’d bet everything on that. I forgot all about Maples, and Simpson is only in mine because I gave Wilken the benefit of the doubt.
Still very possible!
I can’t blame your optimism on Simpson. The small frame worries me, but the guy has a great arsenal of pitches. His upside is still really evident. If anything, I’m rushing the gun on dismissing him this early on.
Can't we go ahead and officially replace Wayne Messmer with Dwight Smith?
Let's see here, I'll give this a shot...
Garza
McNutt
Simpson
Wells
Beeler
Bullpen of Dolis, Cashner, Carpenter, Marshall, Marmol, Rhoderick, Kurcz
I think by 2015 ESPN will be talking about the Cubs having the best home grown bullpen in the majors (I wish it was something else, but better than nothing).
They'll be too busy talking about the lineup
posted above.
;)
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 11:45 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
They'll be too busy talking about the lineup
posted above.
;)
by SenorGato on Jul 2, 2011 11:46 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Hmm...
Garza
Cashner
Beeler
Kirk
B Wells
CL- Cashner
SU-Dolis/Beliveau
RP- Russell, Rhoderick, Carpenter, Kurcz
I hope Cashner's arm survives that.
by SenorGato on Jul 5, 2011 6:30 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
What this exercise shows is
that unless some of their pitching prospects take huge leaps forward, the Cubs are going to need help from the Free Agent market. They need to get that help after the 2012 season.
Jered Weaver
Cole Hamels
Zack Greinke
Anibal Sanchez
Matt Cain
Francisco Liriano
John Danks
Dan Haren (club option for 2013)
All of those guys are free agents after 2012. I’m sure a few of them will sign extensions before then, but the Cubs should be able to sign at least one from that list.
Cole Hamels ftw.
I’d “settle” for Danks if it came to it.
I would love me some Cole Hamels
I don’t see any way he makes it to FA, though.
I can given the other two aces they have plus...
his propensity to miss a start or get shaky once in a while. Hamels IMO is going to be a stud as he enters his prime years…Alot of that is gut feel I guess, but his stuff is top notch stuff.
I'd take Hamels in a second
Misses bats and pounds the strike zone. Gives up a few HRs but I doubt Wrigley is much more HR friendly than Philly’s park
I like Weaver right now
But if Hamels continues pitching like he has this year and stays healthy through the end of 2012, he would move to the top of the list.
I think Weaver and Hamels are likely to reach free agency, too. Weaver is a Boras client so he will test the open market. The Phils have to be close to maxing out on payroll and also Hamels made a stink about the offer he got during his first year of arbitration.
I think Weaver stays with Anaheim.
They can afford him, and he’s very close to their best player.
I doubt Weaver wants to stay
They took him to arbitration this offseason (and won) over $1.5 million. That’s not an insignificant amount, but it won’t help them when it comes time to compete with 29 other teams for his services. And they will have to compete with those other teams because, again, Boras.
From purely in-house options (and being optimistic), mine is:
1. Trey McNutt
2. Matt Garza
3. Andrew Cashner
4. Austin Kirk (L)
5. Hayden Simpson
CL – Chris Carpenter
SU – Rafael Dolis
SU – Jeff Beliveau (L)
RP – Tony Zych
RP – Kevin Rhoderick
RP – Larry Suarez
LR – Willengton Cruz (L)
We have, literally, zero TOR starters in the system
McNutt’s ceiling is the highest, IMO, and therefore gets the “ace” tag by default.
McNutt looks like a disappointment this year
I like the numbers the Struck kid is putting up as a 21 year old. Not sure why he’s not on the list above? Don’t know a whole lot about him other than his numbers
There are more #2's
but I still don’t see an ace. Not that this is a terrible thing.
I lost alot of faith in him when I saw his last start in person
There’s obviously still time, but it didn’t look good. I’m still a believer in Cashner’s potential. Other than that we don’t have any pitching prospects that I LOVE, and I wouldn’t lose any sleep if we traded any of them.
I still blame the blister
McNutt’s calling cards coming into the season were heavy sink on his fastball (i.e. movement) and a knockout breaking ball. Both of these are directly affected by blister problems. While I can understand the pessimism over him, I will not share it until he’s completely healthy and he continues to suck.
When he rears back and hits the mid-to-upper 90's
it definately flattens out. When he’s at 92-93, he has solid sink to it. At least from what I’ve seen and read.
Which is pretty common with a lot of good fastball pitchers.
Overthrowing it and getting more speed is typically bad for them.
There is really no excuse
for us not having any legit starting pitching prospects in Daytona. Hopefully by next year, we’ll be deep enough to have starting pitching prospects at every level.
That's certainly optimistic.
If even one of McNutt, Simpson, or Cashner become a rotation mainstay, I will be pleasantly surprised.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Jul 7, 2011 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Most definately
Please note that this thread isn’t about what you think will happen, but what you would like to see happen, if everything fell according to plan. I doubt 3 of those guys are actually in the rotation in 2015.
Brandon Beachy
If dude is being floated out there by Atlanta can we please get involved in this? He’s going to be a really, really good pitcher.
They'd probably want BJax or Szczur
I have no clue why they’d want to unload him though.
"Playoffs?!" -Jim Mora
by Castro Por Presidente on Jul 8, 2011 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Excerpt taken from BA's Hot Sheet chat. Thought it was an interesting way to look at Simpson's 2011 season
Joe R. (Newport News, VA): Just thinking about Hayden Simpson makes me, a Cub fan, irate. Shouldn’t the Cubs just admit they blundered and release him now, just to get him out of their (and my) system?
J.J. Cooper: Why release him? The money is invested now, give him time to prove that the stuff is still in his arm. He had a bad case of mono last year, so there’s plenty of reasons to be patient and see if he can get back to full strength. A veteran pitching coach told me he’d love to wave a wand and make all of his pitchers spend a season trying to pitch with a mid 80s fastball so they’d learn how to pitch, then wave the wand to give them their fastball back. They’d be polished pitchers then with a plus fastball. There’s always a chance that Simpson is one of the few pitchers that will get that chance.
J.J. Cooper needs to get out of my head
And Joe R. is an idiot.
That's too abstract.
It’s gonna take forever.
Just want to point out that none of our pitchers are true "Aces" if you think about it
All of the “TOR” guys are very good but more like #2-#3 pitchers. Let me be clear, #2’s are very very good pitchers, but none of these guys project to match up to Halladay or Lincecum or anything. The Cubs haven’t really had a true “Ace” at the top of their rotation since Prior was healthy.
I don’t think anybody is arguing that McNutt or Cashner will be like Halladay, but I think you have to figure out how to get a pitcher like that if the Cubs are going to be able to win a world series.
Also: Garza is definitely good enough to be a #2. I expect that Garza will take a turn at the top of the Cub’s rotation at some point before giving way to Cashner and then McNutt.
Well we can hold out hope because...
at one point Halladay was looking like a bust. He had to get sent all the way down to A Ball to rebuild his mechanics and confidence. The same could be said of another top tier pitcher, Cliff Lee, who got sent down by Cleveland, came back, and won a Cy Young.
Hell, another ace, Chris Carpenter, had to get his arm shredded and rebuilt before he took the leap.
So there is hope for a future ace! Don’t forget the 2013 FA class with Hamels, Greinke, and Shields. I think we’ll find that ace in due time, but right now it’s about getting what can be had.
I'd argue we had an ace in 2008
in the form of Rich Harden. The half-season he gave us was truly amazing.
Harden could never stay healthy, though.
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Never said he could
I was merely responding to Subtle’s statement that we haven’t had an ace since Prior was healthy. I think by all accounts, Harden was an ace for us the 2nd half of 2008.
He was for 2008, and he was dang good until his 1 start in October.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 11, 2011 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Can't be an ace when you can't complete a season
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 12, 2011 7:50 AM CDT up reply actions
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