Even A Worst Case Scenario Should Give A Little Optimism For 2012
I'm sick of reading about the idiocy and stupidity surrounding this team. I'm looking forward to September and 2012 already. Even if this team does nothing in free agency and Hendry is retained, we can assume a few things for next year, which should put us in a better position.
Next year's roster should look something like this
C: Soto or Castillo or Clevenger. Exciting options in the minors, I'd really love to see us trade Soto and get something back. Either a starting pitcher or some prospects. Soto is a pretty good catcher who is still under team control
1B: Who knows. I'd like to bring back Pena. I think a 2 year, $24 million dollar deal is not unreasonable. His defense alone with the likes of Castro and whoever is playing 2B makes it worth it.
2B: I'd like to to be LeMahieu but it could very well be Barney or Marquez Smith. Maybe someone else shocks management during ST. I think one of Baker or Dewitt is let go
SS: Castro. A young star who is only going to get better. I'm so excited to watch the kid blossom
3B: Bring back Aramis Ramirez. If you can get him back for cheaper than his option which IIRC is worth $16 mil, DO IT. Sign him for 3 years. His veteran presence and potential to teach Vitters and possibly a move to 1B will be worth it.
LF: Soriano. Deal with it
CF: Brett Jackson. The future. I'm stoked to see what this kid can do. A .250 season with 15-20 SB and 10-20 HRs (a large gap I realize) is a satisfying season for me. Jackson may never be a HOF'er, but he should be an all star a few times before it's all said and done
RF: Byrd. His last year in his contract. He's been more than solid for us. Starting to slow down just a tad. An excellent hustler on defense coupled with a strong arm, he should be able to handle right field at Wrigley.
Bench: Barney/LeMaheiu (whoever isn't starting), one of Baker/DeWitt, Clevenger or Castillo, Colvin/Reed Johnson/Random 4th OF.
Changes: Not much here. I think you trade Soto to a team with a big hole at catcher (Rangers, Rays, and Yankees jump to mind) and if Colvin doesn't do much the rest of this year, send him to Iowa for one more and if he blows it, cut him loose. I think you bring back Pena for cheaper than Pujols/Fielder are worth. Can't afford to give them mega deals a la Soriano. Koyie Hill is GONE which makes the team a lot better.
Rotation: Zambrano. He's really been solid for us this year and I'm happy to bring him back. You aren't going to get full value for him in a trade unless you eat a majority of the contract.
CJ WILSON: Go get this guy. Don't spend money on 3B or outfield help. Wilson is a top end of the rotation guy and he's probably better than Z. Proven winner, great teammate from what I've read, and moving to a ball park that isn't the launching pad that Texas plays in
Garza. Still under team control. No reason not to bring him back
Dempster. Still under contract. We all love him. Hope he bounces back next year
Cashner. Give the kid a chance. I hope he isn't delegated to the pen full time
Changes: I think it's time to let Wells go. He's a fifth starter at best and could possibly bring back something in a trade. He served his time and we thank him for it. I'd rather see Cashner/Struck/McNutt get a shot here than Wells. Go use the Pujols/Fielder money on a legit pitcher for the top end of the rotation.
Pen:
Closer: Marmol. If you can't trade him for what he's worth, bring him back. Has the stuff to be the closer and has proven to be dominant in this league
Set Up: Marshall and bring back Kerry Wood. Pay Wood more than $5 and Marshall gets an arb raise
Others: Samardjiza, Russell, Carpenter, find a free agent
Changes: Grabow is gone. Immediate upgrade. I think the pen was solid for us this year. No real options in the minors other than Carpenter, but I say let's see what he can do.
I think this team could win 80 games, without a lot of ifs. Assuming Soriano hits .250 with 20 homers and his awful defense, assuming Pena continues to hit .220, assuming Z and Dempster struggle, it's not impossible to think that this team could be better. Shark and Russell STAY IN THE PEN and get better with experience, as does Carpenter. Garza gets better luck. Cashner is a legit pitcher and not someone at the end of his career who has no business starting. Aramis has a .280, 20+ HRs, around 90 RBI's can be expected.
I'd like to see Quade and Hendry gone as much as anyone but I think even an idiot could make these basic changes and make the team that much better. Use the Fuk money for Pena. Take the Silva/Grabow/Soto money to go get Wilson. You're around the same payroll but with functional players. Z has less pressure on him. A starting lineup of Castro, 2B, Ramirez, Pena, Byrd, Soriano, Jackson, C is pretty solid if you ask me.
Curious to see what your thoughts are.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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That team wouldn't win
70 games
DEJESUS!!!
by tomas21 on Jul 31, 2011 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, they look really bad on paper.
Plausible, though.
FIRE JIM HENDRY. Injuries aren't the problem.
I disagree
I could see them winning 70.
Not 71, though.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
by Shanghai Badger on Jul 31, 2011 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions
70 wins, tops, and could easily lose 100
Anemic line-up and two starters who don’t take the mound carrying a gasoline can with them.
Changed the title.
It’s “worst case scenario”.
You can’t just “retool” this team any more. The time for this core has passed. You have to make huge, wholesale changes — if only for the sake of saying, “we can’t do business this way any more”.
Your proposed team would be more of the same and would be a loser.
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by Al Yellon on Jul 31, 2011 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
My point was
Even if this team does very little, the team will be better than this years team and has the potential to do a lot better
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I dunno.
Very little? It would be the same 90-loss team.
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love your optimism, but not buying it
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 3, 2011 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I love how your worst case scenario pencils Cashner into the rotation.
He still hasn’t thrown a pitch in anger since April. His shoulder is injured. His worst-case is “never throws in MLB again.”
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Yeah I agree
Dealings with the shoulder – lets hope he throws another pitch first.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
Our definitions are different
This is a hypothetical of what if management did the bare minimum, not what if every player sucks next year
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
"Basically the same team" doesn't give me any optimism for next year
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
That's where you and I disagree
To clarify, I’m not saying this is what I hope the team will do. But I am saying that with a few differences, the team could be in a much different position
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I hope Kerry will sign for the cheap price of $5....
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 31, 2011 4:32 PM CDT reply actions
I think saying this team winning 80 games
is not worst case scenario but rather best case scenario.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
That team would be awful.
Especially if Marquez Smith was on he roster. We have about six or seven better options at 2B.
Woo hoo! 80 wins!
Sign me up – let me jump right on that bandwagon. Can’t wait to see an exciting season as the 2012 Cubs battle for third place in the NL Central. Retreads and has beens on the way to a sub-.500 season! What’s not to be excited about?
I think I speak for everyone here when I say, "Wait, what the hell are you talking about?"
this team looks familiar
I personally believe that damaged ligaments and tendons (among other abrasions) aren't the reason for the team playing so poorly relative the rest of Major League Baseball, so accordingly, James Hendry should be relieved of his highly important duties as General Manager of the Chicago Cubs franchise.
Even A Worst Case Scenario Should Give A Little Optimism For 2012
This should read, “Worst Case Scenario Gives Little Optimism For 2012”
I don’t want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it.
by cub in louies nest on Jul 31, 2011 6:26 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
That's a bad team.
Garza and CJ Wilson would be a nice one-two punch at the top of the rotation. But that team still winds up with a losing record in all likelihood.
The key to turning this team around, I’m convinced, is getting rid of the two biggest albatrosses (Z and Soriano), saving as much money as we can in the process (maybe $4-$5 mm each per contract year).
Use that money and the other $40m+ coming off the books to get a stud 1B this offseason; and wait until the 2012-13 offseason to get a stud OF, when guys like Kemp, Ethier, and Quentin should all be free agents.
That plan can make us better next year, and legitimately good by 2013.
true.
Weaver, Cain, Liriano, Hamels, Haren … definitely some good arms there. Much more likely that those guys get extended, however. With the OFs, at least you can seemingly bank on the fact that the Dodgers’ financial issues will make it unlikely they re-sign Kemp or Ethier, though perhaps they get traded to a team that will.
by Orval Overall on Jul 31, 2011 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
No.
This cannot happen, and the squad you outlined would not win 80 games.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Terrible
That’s the same team minus Soto plus CJ Wilson and Brett Jackson
Wilson would be a nice addition but was rumored to be discussing an extension with Texas the past couple weeks. Another playoff run and they will certainly have the $.
This team minus Soto and Fukudome would never take another walk and probably average less than 2 runs a game. Jackson will hopefully be better than Dome but unlikely in his 1st season.
And why the hell are we shooting for 80 wins to begin with? Since when is that optimistic? Just terrible.
The sun is up. They sky is blue. It's beautiful, and so are you. Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play? ~Lennon & McCartney
by SouthWabashSoul on Jul 31, 2011 8:40 PM CDT reply actions
2013
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 31, 2011 10:52 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
My money is on 2015.

Fasten those seat belts...
by katie casey on Aug 1, 2011 7:36 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great scott!!
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 1, 2011 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions
That team would be horrible....
And, while I love Kerry Wood… I’m not paying him anymore to hang around and block a younger player.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
Exactly.
Not much baseball sense bringing Wood back. Time to move on.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 1, 2011 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions
You don't win games by being loyal to players who were once great... a long time ago.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
a point that some here seem unable or unwilling to grasp
it is similar to the moaning and groaning by some about the Bears not re-signing Kreutz.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 1, 2011 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions
If your goal is mediocrity, your plan nails it.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
We need outfield producers
Byrd now has 18 RBI’s despite hitting 3rd *(behind 2 guys who were getting on a lot) and 5th…need more power and RBI production from OF since Sori seems stuck on the 20 HR-70 RBI mode. Our outfield is biggest area to target for improvement.
Agree we need at least one quality starter then maybe take a flyer on a guy like Rich Harden (again, I liked him) and others hoping to hit paydirt unlike this year with Davis, Lopez, etc…
would like to see them add another pen arm like Dotel, too….
The last thing they need to do is sign a FA reliever.
We have a surplus of young relievers and have a lot bigger holes to use money on.
actually the Cubs do need bullpen help,
and rotation help, infield help, outfield help, other than that they are ready to contend next season.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 1, 2011 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions
the bullpen isnt in that bad of shape this year
Russell and Marshall have been fantastic
Marmol, Shark and Wood have been up or down
Grabow has been, well Grabow, overpaid and the last option out of the pen
Replace Grabow with Carpenter and Wood with Cashner and you have a solid bullpen next year.
Yeah it is
Russell: maybe he has found his place a lefty specialist
Marshall: the best of the bunch but shaky lately
Marmol: potentially awesome but wildly (pun intended) erratic
Samardzija: good start but bad lately
Wood: time to move on
Grabow: you said all that needs saying
Cashner will be in the rotation although I agree with you, he is better off in the bullpen. Carpenter may or may not be ready next year (if ever).
Overall, a lot of question marks, so clearly the pen needs work.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 1, 2011 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Every reliever is a crapshoot year to year.
Even guys like Dotel. Why spend on a guy like that when we have so many bigger holes? A few guys that haven’t even been mentioned are Rhoderick, Dolis, and Beliveau, who all could make strong impacts in the pen next year. And Wood will be back. He’ll retire a Cub, and I’d much rather have him then Dotel anyway.
Last priority, though
If the team isn’t leading when the starter leaves, the bullpen really doesn’t matter.
Do you think Papelbon would be too much money?
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 1, 2011 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
never pay huge money for a big name closer
by John T. Unger on Aug 1, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, you didn't answer the question, and I tend to agree with your statement, and the overrated one below it.
But I would sign him for more than 5 million. We could try to get Heath Bell, but the Padres want him back. Cordero has an option I think.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 1, 2011 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Uh
$12 million for a guy to catch the ball at 1B and go in a couple of HR stretches and otherwise hit about .220 with 65 RBI’s? No thanks.
"When the day comes with that last winning run and I'm crying and covered in beer. I'll look to the sky and know I was right to think someday we'll go all the way." - Vedder
that's a hilariously bad lineup
and why would you give carlos pena 2 years and 24 million dollars? that’s ridiculous.
by John T. Unger on Aug 1, 2011 10:02 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Sombody that bats .220 or .250 does not deserve $10mil +
Lets get rid of Soriano, Byrd and Pena, and ARam. If we are going to be .500 or less I would rather not pay so much for these guys. .500 will not get us in the playoffs. If we are not trying to make the playoffs then lets go for really high draft picks.
You're getting rid of Soto and Wells, and not really adding anything other than Wilson
So you’re adding 4 wins with Wilson, maybe 2 if Cashner can stay healthy (big risk – by getting rid of Wells you have no depth in your rotation again), and maybe 2 wins by bringing up Jackson, assuming he can be a league-average hitter in his first year.
Let’s be generous and say you’re going to get 1-2 more WAR out of Castro as he matures, one more win from Soriano from him “bouncing back”, and that Ramirez is able to put up similar numbers. So that’s an 11 win improvement.
Meanwhile though you’re costing 1 win by moving Byrd to RF (due to positional adjustments), 2-3 wins by getting rid of Soto, and potentially 2-3 wins by getting rid of Wells (should Cashner get hurt).
So your worst case scenario team is about 6 wins better in the starting lineup. That’s it.
That’s not nearly enough to improve.
I applaud your noble attempt to comfort us all...
…but it’s almost like you’ve already blocked out how epically, traumatically bad this current roster is. I don’t think even a dash — or a dumptruck — full of better luck will turn this lineup into a legit contender. And I’m honestly bewildered at why you’d pay $24 million for two years of Carlos Pena when he hasn’t even been worth one win so far this year. I also don’t understand what “Pay Wood more than $5” means.
Baseball is pitching, hitting, baserunning and defense.
Buy low, sell high
I don’t understand why so many Cubs fans on this website are encouraging the team to blow itself up. It doesn’t make sense to me to dump players that are currently under contract for another year into a soft market. I think a lot of clubs next year our going to be looking to dump salary. Prospects are going to be overvalued and veterans are going to be undervalued. Just look at the trades that happened this past month. The Cubs go into next season with room to spend. They should be looking to spend it.
We aren’t the Pirates.
no, we aren't the Pirates ... they are much better
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 3, 2011 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, really they're just luckier
Most projection systems have them about even with the Cubs. I have a feeling that at the end of the records of both teams will be closer than you think.
you're sarcasm impaired I see
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 5, 2011 7:51 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't get it either
I can fully understand that people want to see drastic changes in the team (as do I), but how?
We do have Brett Jackson ready for next season. Castillo maybe as backup C, maybe Lemahieu can get some playing time. And maybe we can really score Pujols or Fielder. As far as I can see, that’s all we can expect to add to our roster.
Next to these 5 guys, there’s still 20 roster spots to fill, which has to be done with players we already have.
The probabilty of finding better players for lesser money than we have already have in Byrd or Soto seems pretty low. Sames goes for ARam if he accepts a lower contract.
Sometimes there have to be changes just for sake of making changes. But that should be made by firing the manager and in this case Hendry.
That being said, I think we definitely should have tried to get rid of Baker, DeWitt and Marmol who seem expendable no matter what how the team changes. And if we’re going for an obese 1B FA, obviously Pena has to go ASAP.
by DamageControlFreak on Aug 3, 2011 4:29 AM CDT reply actions
Two main things to do:
1) Incorporate youth as much as possible. This is what I truly believe each organization should strive for. I’m not the most well versed on how deep (or not deep) the Cubs farm system is, but I do know it is on the upswing. Brett Jackson appears to have turned a corner and after a slower start at AAA, is now batting near .300 and currently has a .973 OPS. It is inevitable he will be at Wrigley Field no later than 27 days from now. He will the Cubs starting CF next year and hopefully beyond. Aside from BJax, the question marks are plentiful. Give these prospects time and as we move forward, the system is being stocked with high ceiling, raw prospects. The most recent draft is a perfect example of ownership taking stock in development and growing from within. If the Cubs can actually develop these prospects, they need to be able to put them in place without being blocked on the big league club. This is a perfect segway to my next thought…
2) Rid themselves of large, unfavorable contracts. Unfortunately, the only way to do this is to let time ride its course. Luckily, the Cubs do have the opportunity to rid themselves of Aram, Pena, Fukudome (technically gone, but no $14M+ next year), and Grabow after this season. After next season, Zambrano and Dempster are off the books. I truly believe you can give someone top dollar per season, but DO NOT handcuff the organization with excess years. For this reason, I am a strong advocate of NOT signing Pujols. Instead, I would be content with signing Fielder to a 5 or 6 year deal. For him personally, I think a shorter deal with more per year would be beneficial as it would allow him to possibly net one final long contract at 32-33 years of age. I feel like resigning Pena and Aram to deals (albeit lower money and fewer years) is not beneficial to the organization.
This is where retooling comes into play, whereas the Cubs need to retool their organizational direction. YOUTH, YOUTH, YOUTH!! Develop the youth and naturally wholesale changes will follow. I like to be optimistic about this team at all times, but I don’t think this team can make enough changes to compete for a pennant in 2012. This then is where huge, wholesale changes come into play. The Cubs can start by making a splash this upcoming offseason by signing Fielder. A 5-6 year contract is going to be more beneficial than a 2 year contract to Pena. In 2013, go after a power hitting OF (Kemp, Ethier, Quentin) and go after an ace SP (Weaver, Hamels, Cain, Greinke). In the meantime, albatross contracts will come off the books and all that will remain will be the solid core of Castro, Garza, Cashner, Marmol, Jackson.
I think the whole point of my post is that we can’t do much to drastically change 2012. They’re already bad enough where you can’t get much worse. On the other end of the spectrum, they can’t do enough to immediately compete for a division title and pennant. Keep the core, let contracts come off the books and let the natural transformation begin immediately. As soon as 2013, I think we can expect to see dividends from these changes. Until then, I think the most beneficial tactic would be to not use patchwork fixes and to be smart about free agent signings.
I left a lot on the table to be blasted, so have at it.
this 2011
team should have been good.good enough to contend in this crap division.when the players dont do their jobs it wont happen.does’nt matter who you have playing if they dont produce.this team is living proof of that.

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