A 2008 Flashback: Kerry Wood Saves Cubs Win Over Astros
by Al Yellon on Aug 16, 2011 7:30 AM CDT
in Chicago Cubs Recaps
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If only the rest of this season had gone like 2008.
Carlos Marmol had thrown in five of the last six games, so manager Mike Quade gave him Monday night off. When the game in Houston came down to a one-run contest in the ninth inning, there was Kerry Wood, in the role he performed so well during the Cubs' division title year in 2008. Wood posted 34 saves that year, matching his longtime uniform number.
But he had not been used in a closing situation all season -- in fact, had pitched in the ninth inning only three times before last night -- and the four blown saves and four home runs allowed by Wood this season had, so far, added up to a somewhat mediocre return to the North Side.
If only for one night, though, Wood looked like that 2008 closer. Granted that Jason Michaels, Jimmy Paredes and Humberto Quintero aren't exactly Murderers' Row, but Wood put them down with only 10 pitches (eight strikes) and struck out Paredes and Quintero. His velocity looked good and maybe, just maybe, he's finally becoming the lights-out setup man he was for the Yankees after they acquired him late in 2010.
The Cubs defeated the Astros 4-3 Monday night in Houston. They announced a crowd of 20,138, but from the handful of TV views that showed large parts of the stadium empty, there couldn't have been more than 7,000 people in the house.
Can you blame them? The Astros are completely retooling, having traded away two of their best players, and are putting a lineup on the field that is not much more than a Triple-A team. Some of these players (Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez in particular) look like pretty good prospects and might become solid regulars in time.
But this year, Houston is headed for what looks like a 110-loss season. Not only would that be only the third such season since 1969, but the Astros have never even had a 100-loss year in their history. They could get there by Labor Day, and the magic number for mathematically eliminating them from postseason consideration is eight.
As for the game, the Cubs scored a pair in the first inning and never trailed; Starlin Castro made a couple more slick defensive plays, throwing runners out from the outfield grass. The best thing about those long throws isn't that Castro has such a strong arm -- we already knew that -- but the fact that those throws were accurate, on target, and didn't make Carlos Pena go into contortions to catch them. We are seeing Castro mature into an All-Star caliber shortstop, both offensively and defensively.
Meanwhile, Rodrigo Lopez threw well enough -- 5.1 innings, two earned runs -- that maybe, possibly, someone might be interested enough to deal for him (he's cleared waivers). That would make his acquisition worth it, if the Cubs could get back a better prospect than they gave up.
The Cubs are now 11-3 in August, and even more impressive is this: they've gotten back to .500 (19-19) in one-run games. Last year, the Cubs were awful in one-run games until August, going 15-30 until they turned it around and won seven of their last nine one-run affairs. It is, at least, something positive to think about as this dreary year begins to wrap up; with 40 games remaining, we are now three-quarters finished with 2011. It doesn't mean that changes aren't needed -- they are -- but maybe there's hope for the near future after all.
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Hell, I miss 2007.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I miss 1984
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Ugh, I don't.
The 2004 team was the most frustrating, unlikeable, Dustified Cubs team I’ve ever seen. I don’t miss Hawkins, Alou, Farnsworth, Mercker or Sosa (from that year).
I guess the next logical question is whether I’d rather see the awful 2011 team or the disappointing/malcontent 2004 team. I’d say neither — but that I don’t miss the 2004 team one bit.
The 2003 team? Well, that’s another story.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
2004 was fine up until the last week of the season.
Had that team won the wild card that was theirs for the taking, we’d probably have better memories of it, even if it had lost in the postseason.
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I disagree.
That team would have had to go DEEP into the postseason to make up for the congenial personalities of Hawkins, Farnsworth, Mercker, etc. If the 2004 Cubs had been swept in the first round, I don’t think they would have come off any better — given the high expectations — than how they’re viewed now.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I agree, eg
That whole season was a mess in one way or another. The last week just capped it, royally.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 16, 2011 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions
That's hindsight.
We’d all have been thrilled if that team had made the playoffs. The sour taste is from that last week. Yes, that season was messy. Cap it with failure and that’s why we remember it as awful. Cap it with playoffs and it’s at least better. Yes, it would not have been good with a quick playoff exit. But at least it would have been something.
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I disagree.
The hopes that year were SO high. The collapse in the final week is pretty similar to a first-round loss, depending on the nature of the loss.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Sure.
All I’m saying is that if that team HAD made the playoffs, we’d think much better of it in retrospect.
Since it didn’t, it’s hard to make that leap.
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I can understand that view, Al
I just thought the season was underwhelming from beginning to end, both in the team’s performance, the disabled-list parade and the general attitude of the players and manager.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 16, 2011 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh, it was, absolutely.
If it had ended with a playoff spot, we’d think different.
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I'm with you
One of the last games I saw before heading to China for the rest of the year was Hawkins blowing up on an umpire for a “vendetta” and the entire coaching staff being needed to restrain him.
When I saw that, I saw a player that had no respect for his team or manager, and a manager that allowed it.
I wanted them to win, but it’d been becoming apparent what a bunch of whiny jerks they were before that day. That particular game solidified it.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 16, 2011 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
i kinda agree with you Al .. but 2004 was a mess
They were the Cardiac Cubs 2.0 for the millenium.
2003 was the Horror, to quote Colonel Kurtz.
Watching them flail in Cincinatti in September of 2004 on that last agonized collision with the Reds was painful indeed. The comedy of errors once again had become tragic. But being in Wrigley for the Saturday game was excruciating. Watching Kerry Wood get beat up wasn’t enjoyable. I never knew that it would be the last time I would see Sosa run out and get his cheer from the bleachers.
And hearing everyone screaming “Let’s Go Cubbies” in the last great hurrah that day and me being unable to muster anything but a cynical resignation to the inevitable was a pain my Cub fan’s soul to this day smarts at recollecting. I think it was Jim Langford, author of “The Game Is Never Over” who said it best about the Cubs in other years that best summarizes 2004 for the year .. they left a sense of “fumbled failure.” You think as a Cubs fan you should be used to this. Not anymore.
Maybe it’s because I’m not used to being in Wrigley enough through all of its seasons during the season but that weekend will forever haunt. It’s because I remember watching the Cubs beat the Cards with my brothers in late September 1984 after the Cubs clinched the division. I remember being there and feeling the electricity, the pride, the hope.
THAT was a fun team. A fun time. A wonderful day to watch the Cubs thrash them Red turds .. and a time when I can recall it was FUN it was to be at Wrigley with a division title in our pockets and the skies the limit ..
It wasn’t fun that weekend.
I’d seen more joy at an undertaker’s convention and it was pathos at its worst. I commented on how lifeless the Cubs fans were going in in one of my past posts here and I don’t want to have to see that again if I can help it.
No 2004 was a mess .. and that last week truly a nightmare. I’d almost .. well, almost .. rather go through my divorce again then live that out once more. The video WGN did on the season that was using Finger Eleven’s music makes me want to cry like a five year old everytime I watch it.
It’s why I smash every Flux capacitor I can ..
Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we shall go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
by cubnational on Aug 16, 2011 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions
The last week of that season is so painful
I hate thinking about it.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
Me too, for the most part.
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
That's been my mantra for the past three years
And like Eths said, “for the most part”
You stinks, Carlos Zambrano!
3 Game Winning Streak! 3 Game Winning Streak!
Oh, we’re not getting excited about this one anymore?
All of these boring 3 game winning streaks... never mind... ;-)
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
They usually don't release a list.
But from what I hear, Soriano and Lopez have cleared. I’m guessing pretty much everyone else who was waived has probably cleared.
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supposedly Z cleared
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 16, 2011 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Sure.
But no one will trade for him.
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Rodrigo Lopez
IMO, he’s been a pretty good pick up for the Cubs. People can prattle on about retread pitcher, no future, etc., but he’s posted stats that have been fairly consistent with his career. He’s gone 4-3 with an ERA of 4.66, has done everything they’ve asked, and he wouldn’t say crap if he had a mouthful of it. No one thought he was anything more than a 5th starter, which is his ceiling no doubt, but that’s what he’s given them. He’s gotten them into the 5th or 6th inning most of his starts, and they really couldn’t have asked for much more.
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by BeerCub on Aug 16, 2011 7:50 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Well done RoLo. He wouldn’t be a bad guy to have for long relief next year and to fill a spot starter role if necessary. A better Ramon Ortiz, if you will.
First...
… Cubs managers in recent years have never used a pitcher in that “long relief/spot start” role. They should, but they don’t.
Second, look at his career stats and tell me you’d want him back at age 36.
Trade him NOW while you still can.
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I KNEW someone would post something like this
I AM looking at his career stats, that’s how I knew he’s giving them what he’s done his entire career. For a 5th starter, if you knew you were going to get a guy who would go about 12-13, ERA of 4.84 and eat up about 200 innings, you’d be pretty tempted to take it.
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For me, that ERA is too high.
Jason Marquis ate up innings, posted an over .500 record — and had an ERA a run lower.
Lopez isn’t good enough. On a bad team? Yes. On a contender? No.
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contender
I’ve heard that term before. I don’t remember the definition, though.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
by timh815 on Aug 16, 2011 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Brilliant!
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
Since you brought up Marquis.....
… I looked him up. Lifetime average of 12-11, ERA of 4.55, average innings 192. Not much difference except Marquis is three years younger.
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The younger part is the important part.
Rodrigo seems at the end of the line. If Marquis recovered from that broken bone he just suffered, I’d take him back.
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I want you to write on the blackboard 100 times, Yellsy...
“We will not bring back former players”
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
So let me get this straight.
Once a player is traded from the Cubs or leaves as a free agent, he should NEVER be brought back?
Would you have traded for Lou Brock in, say, 1969?
Or brought Greg Maddux back in, say, 1998?
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Can we differentiate between HOFs and randoms like Marquis?
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by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Sure.
But a random player who could help the team? Why wouldn’t you bring him back?
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It's still a good policy...
it rarely works out for teams to bring back former players. There’s usually a really good reason you chose not to keep them in the first place. That’s not the case with who runs this team because he’s made many bad decisions with players such as Marquis, but for most teams bringing back a player doesn’t usually work out well. There’s a reason why they deserve to be called randoms… as in they’re just as likely to perform as one of the many other randoms who will be available. Just go get one of them instead and you don’t have to even bother with questions of why things didn’t work out before.
There’s no way the Cubs should bring back Jason Marquis for next season unless he’s the last piece of a possible contender, and you can afford if he doesn’t perform well. But even in that case, roll a dice, draw straws, roshambo, throw darts, whatever and if it ends up with Marquis, go ahead… but only then should he be the “correct decision”. He’s just a random guess like all the others.
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by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
OK...you got me there......those are bona fide HoFers.
You’re talking about Marquis, and yesterday Lilly…oh, and last year Wood. Hardly HoFers. They didn’t want them then…why want them now? Forward, Al. Nothing from this teams past is gonna help them going forward…including Ryno (but, that’s for another time).
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
I'd say "it depends".
In most cases, sure, move forward.
But to have a hard and fast rule to never do it? Sorry, no.
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Take him back if his salary is considerably lower than the $7 million we paid him last time!!!
Otherwise, forget it because he’s nothing more than a #5 starter
"Go Cubs!"
That IS a big difference.
However, I disagree with Al that we should trade Lopez at all costs.
The Cubs rotation for next season has gone from muddled to extremely troublesome, after Z’s theatrics. At this point, the only reasonably sure bets for 2012 are Dempster and Garza. The ineffectiveness of Randy Wells, the unknown status of Andrew Cashner and the disappointing year by every minor league pitcher who’s close to making the bigs means having an insurance policy like Lopez might be a good idea.
My guess is that the Cubs spend money on a FA starter in the offseason, but that STILL doesn’t make things much brighter. I’d be OK trading Lopez for the right return — I’d be OK trading anybody but Castro for the right return — but I don’t think that keeping him is a bad thing. Even if Lopez starts 2012 in Iowa, he’s good insurance — and he might keep us from a Doug Davis/Ramon Ortiz/James Russell experiment next season.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Maybe 'at all costs' is a bit strong.
I disagree with Al’s extremely strong wish to trade Lopez.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Fair enough...
… I wouldn’t just trade him to dump him, although the likelihood that he’s going to be on this team next year is very small.
The Cubs will surely make a deal and/or FA signing in the offseason to bolster the rotation. I doubt we’re going to see another Davis/Russell/Ortiz thing next year. That lesson, they should have learned.
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Even with two starters from outside the organization ...
the Cubs might need a No. 5. It’s sad that we have a stable of pitchers — Z, Coleman, Cashner, Wells — who are all such big question marks.
Wells is the one that’s really disappointing to me. Given his rookie performance and even his erratic 2010, I thought he could be a No. 4-5 starter who fills the role cheaply. Now … heck, I don’t even know if he’ll make the team next year.
Is there any reason to believe that Wells’ struggles are the effects of the injury — and that he’d be better in 2012?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Is there any reason to believe that Wells’ struggles are the effects of the injury — and that he’d be better in 2012?
Sure, because he appears to be getting better as time goes by, which suggests he may have come back too soon and not been 100%.
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Here's hoping.
Wells and Colvin are important, because if they can ably fill second-tier spots on the team (fourth/fifth starter and right fielder No. 7 hitter against righties), the Cubs won’t have to put down $5 million-$7 million on the next Jason Marquis or Jacque Jones.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
The "getting better" part is relative
his ERA in June and July were both over 6.00 with a WHIP over 1.55. His ERA in August is 5.00, but that’s a pretty small sample.
Hopefully his next few starts are more like his first start of the month than his more recent two (1.60WHIP against ATL, 6 ER against CIN).
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I hope you're right.
I’ve quietly stuck with Randy this season and am still rooting for him. He’s going to have to finish awfully strong, though, to save any face on his value. On the bright side, maybe pitching fewer innings this year will make him a little stronger next year.
Baseball is pitching, hitting, baserunning and defense.
by daver on Aug 16, 2011 10:03 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Davis/Russell/Ortiz thing?
Not to be picky, but I don’t think there was a “Davis/Russell/Ortiz thing”. There was a “Davis/Lopez/Ortiz thing”, which happened when it finally dawned on the Cubs brains trust that the “Russell thing” wasn’t even one step removed from insanity; but there was never a “Davis/Russell/Ortiz thing” as such.
Lopez has been the least bad end of the Davis/Lopez/Ortiz thing and I suppose there’s an outside chance that a contender might look to him to fill a hole in emergency. In that case I’d expect him to bring a better prospect than Ryan Buchter in return, which would make his tenure as a Cub some kind of a success.
by Limey Cub Fan Jay on Aug 16, 2011 9:44 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd trade him if I could get back a Daytona level #3 starter
But if you’re just giving him away for free, I wouldn’t bother. It’s not like the Cubs’ farm system is stacked with high-upside starters who will be ready before July 1 next year, so let him come back with a NRI and see if he can hold that swing spot in the bullpen.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??
by Invalid User on Aug 16, 2011 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Which is my point essentially
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As a non-roster invitee, I'm fine with it...
but I’m not going to be too distraught if we let the guy go, either. We’re talking about a guy whose ERA the past five years has been above 5.00 and who will be turning 36. I’d imagine that guys like that are always available on the scrap heap.
Guys like that only have any real value IF you have a real pitching coach
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
Lopez has been fine this year without a real pitching coach
I’d argue that the pitching coach is more valuable for guys with decent stuff but bad command than guys like Lopez with good command but mediocre stuff.
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Also more valuable for younger guys.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Next year's rotation?
Garza, CJ Wilson, Demp, Cashner and Wells.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
My guess CJ
remains with his current club. Why would they not retain him?? Obviously money – but I do not think they are broke.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
I'm thinkin' Texas is gonna be a MAJOR player...
…in the Fielder/Pujols bidding this upcoming off-season…if they can dump Michael Young.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
Mchael Young
is having an absolute solid season too. His home runs have dipped but he is still a major contributor to that team.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
I know...
but they’ve screwed with him constantly… and tried to trade him multiple times. He’s their all time hit leader and they move him from position to position to position. He’s ridiculously overpaid (even for how good he’s been this year) because his defense has been so consistently poor. They’d move him, if they could… but I still think they have the money to re-sign Wilson (or at least drive his asking price to ridiculous levels) and be a player for Beltran/Fielder/Pujols. They really don’t have much else left to do shore up their team with how deep their farm system is too. They’re going to be a force for many, many years.
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by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I wish I could feel confident in Andrew Cashner.
Alas, I cannot.
Baseball is pitching, hitting, baserunning and defense.
I'm no more confident in...
Garza to be a 1. Wilson to remain a >2. Dempster to be a 3. Wells to be a 4… or anybody else in the organization to be better than Cashner as a 5.
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by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Matter of fact..
… as much as it might pain some people to hear this, he’s been fairly decent starter for them, especially at Wrigley, where he’s gone 3-1 with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.21 overall.
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This one time...
…I was up in Carolina pine country, building a log cabin outta some fine red cedar. Well, a grizzly came barrelin’ outta the tree line and I grabbed a solid 2×4 plank and set to smack him upside the head with it. But I digress…
Baseball is pitching, hitting, baserunning and defense.
by daver on Aug 16, 2011 9:46 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
12 out of 15 is .800 and if they continue at this level, 86 wins here we come!
You know, I just wish this was more than a KoolAid addled dream…
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
However overtaking Pittsburgh within a week and Cincinnati within a fortnight does seem vaguely realistic.
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
by eths on Aug 16, 2011 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure.
And 100 BCB points for using “fortnight”.
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So your strategy would be?
.
by Limey Cub Fan Jay on Aug 16, 2011 9:47 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
strategy would be...
win the division. if you’re in second you make changes to try and with the division. if you’re 15 games under, and there is no chance of winning the division, then a second pick is better than a 6th pick. since we are out of it, play the kids, see what you have in some of the guys with a plausible future or upside to them. whats the point of finishing 4th when finishing 5th gets you a better draft pick?
Because you have to strike some sembelnce of balance between business decisions and keeping the majority of fans engaged
That’s the point of finishing 4th instead of 5th.
define fan....
the beer swilling frat guys who are drunk by the third inning? 4th or 5th still going to games
the once a year destination trip to Wrigley to show their kids what Wrigley is? still going to go to games ( probably more because tickets are cheaper and more available)
BCBers who might rather pick up the second pick in the draft rather than beat the pirates in the standings?
I’m not saying throw games, but there is no urgency to win at this point in the year…
Wrigley will never become Minute Maid, but the effect will be the same
Think those beer swilling frat guys were at the park last night? The people taking their kids to watch the choo choo go across? Minute Maid was absolutely deserted. The only people showing up to watch the Astros this year are the die hard baseball fans.
Playing like Houston means a fan base like Houston.
I think you'll find that their money is as good as yours
Maybe better, if they’re drinking that much beer.
by Limey Cub Fan Jay on Aug 16, 2011 2:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Pujols: 13th round pick..............Buehrle: 38th round pick
The draft is a crap shoot anyway.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
by Easy Ed on Aug 16, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Wasn't Piazza the last pick in the draft??
Either way – I think he was a juicer.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
I don't recall his name ever popping up on any "juicers" list...
I think he was just a ball player who took the baseball world by surprise.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
Bring up and play as many kids as possible
See what your farm system can do BEFORE Sept 1st . AND after Sept 1st, keep playing the kids.
This whole thing with “Colvin would play but we have a RF’er” should have ended 2-3 weeks ago. Kosuke is gone and we still don’t see Colvin half the time.
Just win the next game...!
A win tonight
and the Cubs will be as close to first as to last in their division. Closer, if Milwaukee loses to the Dodgers.
by Limey Cub Fan Jay on Aug 16, 2011 10:02 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I didn't realize that - GO CUBS!
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
by eths on Aug 16, 2011 12:20 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Ever since their first 3 game winning streak
They are getting them almost all time. Yet we were all afraid we would never see a 3 game winning streak. Better late then never……. :)
by cubs1201 on Aug 16, 2011 7:59 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Boy the Astro's are bad.
Wow, imagine being a season ticket holder. Lets see, lets trade Pence, Lidge, Oswalt and Berkman and get major league players, JA Happ, M. Bourn Melacon, and Paredes plus 5 minor league players. Bourn is gone, Happ has struggled, but Melacon and Pardes may be pretty good. Either way Ed Wade actually is worse than Jim Hendry.
I sure hope Colvin will hit the rest of the year. And where was this team for the first 120 games. Beyond frustration. I just worry about the manager getting job security over a 12-3 winning run.
These Astros...
…… are what many people here wanted the Cubs to be post trade deadline. Trade everybody, play the kids. Not always the best move.
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by BeerCub on Aug 16, 2011 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not in the short term.
But the Astros got some valuable prospects for Pence (I’m not that familiar with the return for Bourn). Other than the spare parts for Kosuke, the Cubs didn’t add anything.
So, yeah, the Cubs are playing better in August with pretty much the same squad that came from Mesa. But so what? They’re still 14 games under .500 AFTER their best bit of play all season. And they don’t have the young, cost-controlled guys the Astros have that could help them down the road.
Put another way, 100 losses and good prospects from trades is probably better, long term, than 90 losses and no good prospects from trades.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
A lot of time will tell
if those Astros guys pan out. Think Cubs people would be patient enough to wait that long?
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 16, 2011 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions
The Cubs don't have a bad history rushing minor leaguers ...
or a history of dumping them too soon (other than McGehee, I guess).
My main criticism regarding the Cubs’ farm system is that it’s done a terrible job developing impact position players and that most players coming up from the minors wouldn’t know plate discipline if it bit them in the ass. That said, I don’t think the Cubs are impatient with prospects.
Maybe I’m not understanding your question …
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I don't think so, either
But I also don’t think an Astros-style rebuild would go over like a lead balloon on the North Side.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 16, 2011 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Edit out the word "don't"
The editor needs an editor, alas.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 16, 2011 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh, Cubs "people" being fans?
Well, you can have your cake and eat it too, in this case. Theoretically, the Cubs could have tried to trade veterans like Byrd, Pena, Marmol, etc., picked up some good prospects AND spent on free agents this offseason.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Agreed...
building for the future and being competitive next year don’t have to be mutually exclusive.
It’s not like people were banging down the doors to see guys like Pena, Baker, etc play.
Of course, those guys also probably wouldn’t have gotten us anything in return…
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions
If you believe some reports...
some people were at least interested in guys like Pena and Baker…but our GM isn’t interested in getting anything in return.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 16, 2011 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
I didn't say people weren't interested in them...
just that the offer in return might have been crap. I’m sure some teams would have loved to have Baker or Pena for free (or close to it).
We’ve heard reports that teams may have been interested – we never heard what they’d be willing to offer in return.
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Cubs have five more games with the STROS including tonight
they are 19-41 at home (and ironically 19-43 on the road), so if the Cubs can sweep ’em the Stohs record will be the same home and the road.
AS for the STROHS they have been headed for this bottoming out for some time, esp after Biggio and Bagwell retired leaving Berkman, Pence and then they signed Carlos Lee. At the time they had nothing in the minor league system and then have gotten little value for Oswalt, Berkman’s and now Pence’s departures.
When a team that was playoff competitive through acquisitions and not the farm system unless they make astute divestitures with existing talent the slide can be very deep——see the Cubs—-
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Little value from Pence's departure?
Based on two weeks?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Wallace seems like a good player, in return for Oswalt...
but their GM is so dumb, they gave away a bunch of money in that deal to make it cheap for a team that could actually afford it… weird.
Melancon is actually a good return for Berkman, considering how little he was worth when they traded him. They also got very good value for Pence, considering how he’s not a superstar level player and was going to get pretty expensive next year.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Depends on what a team decides which players they intend to build around next year
The Cubs staying totally pat on 7/31 was mind-boggling.
Just win the next game...!
They did trade Kosuke.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
The way Wood is looking, I want him back.
I think he can throw like that until he is 40. His gas looks effortless.
Let’s keep winning, it beats the alternative!
We'll miss you Big Boy. #10 for Hall of Fame.
I love Kerry.
But this won’t continue forever. I’m just hoping he sticks around and pitches effectively for the next Cubs team that’s good. It would be a shame for him to end his career on sub-.500, bottom-division teams.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Aug 16, 2011 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lets just hope
Wood can continue like this in the St. Louis series this weekend . Oh and yes no more errors boys .
I said it going into the season...
…and I’ll say it again: If Woody is willing to keep taking a hometown discount to play with the Cubs, I’d gladly welcome him back for at least the next season or two. His numbers this season aren’t spectacular – his walk rate is a bit high – but he’s got an awesome 9.86 K/9 right now and he hasn’t been bitten by the long ball too too badly. Plus, y’know, he’s Kerry Wood.
Baseball is pitching, hitting, baserunning and defense.
by daver on Aug 16, 2011 9:53 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
In a theoretical contending season...
I would never turn down a player like Kerry Wood who wants to be a leader and get paid nothing to do it, though I would prefer if he wasn’t more than the 3rd best RHP out of the pen. Next season… I could care less if he ended up the closer since they won’t be a contending team. If Kerry wants to play next year, he can come and earn a spot and play.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions
glass chew of a game..
this is really a thankless series. if we beat this team, no one will care, and if we happen to lose a game to them, most, ahem, “Cub fans” will be outraged and claim “This totally summarizes up the 2011 Cubs!!!!!” The Zambano saga kind of covered up the fact that the Cubs won a series on the road against one of the best teams in the NL. But why spoil a good bitch session with optimistic facts right….?
As long as Castro, Barney, and Colvin are in the highlights and keys to the game, they bare watching for me. 12 out of 15
is a good thing. I hope they keep it up. Even against incredibly unfortunate teams like the Astros….
"I can't be held responsible for what I personally tell my goons to do...."- C. Montgomery Burns
optimistic facts aside, we're all( well most are) happy the cubs won,
we’re all just worried, that this will somehow bolster ricketts’ and hendry’s stance that nothing is wrong with this team and injuries kept us from winning the division.
EXACTLY
And I even caught myself cheering out loud when Geo ripped that 2-bager down the LF line to make it 4-1.
It’s really hard to cheer for the guys still in the uni, knowing that each win that gets earned from here on out makes it more likely to hear, “we’re only a couple players away”, and “Jim is my GM, Mike is my manager”….in Lovey speak of course.
Just win the next game...!
by blackhawk24 on Aug 16, 2011 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Quade has nothing to do with this turnaround
It appears that Pena has taken the leadership mantle and is leading by both example and word.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Based on ... ?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Didn't say he did or didn't
Let me re-phrase: Each win is another notch in the belt for certain folks job retention.
Just win the next game...!
by blackhawk24 on Aug 16, 2011 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
No pressure...
…and no expectations, have everything to do with the recent surge of wins.
This is looking just like last year so far. If Ricketts is fooled by this, we are all in trouble.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
We are in DEEP DOODY
If Ricketts is fooled by this
Anyone can play relaxed and the like when the pressure is off. Which is the rip on big money guys like our 3rd baseman and left fielder. They’re MIA more often than not when the team needs someone to carry them.
It’s like the 460’ home run onto Waveland – right to ballhawk – when they lose teh game 14-5.
Tell me Ricketts never heard the saying, “he’s squeezing the sawdust out of the bat”. I’d hate to be trying to sell ShopVac’s to the Cubs, there’d be NO business opportunity.
Just win the next game...!
someone green this
on spot black
Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we shall go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
by cubnational on Aug 16, 2011 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
If only....
there was this 12-3 streak once in April, and again in June in addition to this one. If we only had a ….. Oh who are we kidding. This is the same facade perpetrated on the fans as last year.
Just win the next game...!
This doesn't disguise
Quades’ lousy managing, Riggins’ lousy coaching, and DeJesus’ incompetent third base coaching.
Sweep them out, Ricketts
Or the fact that we played the worst team in baseball
So if we sweep Astros, go on 5 game winning streak….i can’t wait for people to say its because we don’t have Zambrano,
Nah. That's easily refuted.
The Cubs were playing better for two weeks before Z’s episode in Atlanta.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
This might bring out the Kosuke defenders.
But it is possible that the lineup fits better without him in it. Castro gets to lead off every day, and he has a .939 OPS in the past 14 days (though he’s cooling). Barney seems to be doing better in the No. 2 spot, too — especially in the past week.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
it appears that whenever Castro seems to be cooling he strikes a string of multi hit games
As for Barney his splits:
August: .318/ .375/.364 .739-OPS
In the #2 spot of the lineup: .300/.328/.360 .688-OPS
All that Castro and Barney need to do is learn how to take more walks and their OBP and BA will increase.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Non sequitir, much?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
et tu?
get out of the MS playground
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
MS?
What are you talking about?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
what are you talking about?
you made an unqualified accusation, non sequitur (a literary device) or its apparent lack of meaning relative to what it follows, seems absurd to the point of being humorous
since I wasn’t intending any veiled sarcasm (as is often the case in this community) merely extending the thought on Castro (inferred as being in the lead off role since Fukudome was traded)
as you originally mentioned he was cooling off that often Castro responds with multi-hit games and the fact that you also mentioned Barney in the 2-hole so I complimented that observation with empirical data substantiating it,
you then responded with the non sequitur (properly spelled) quip…
therefore I interpreted that comment as a a non sequitur in of itself and one tinged with middle school playground maturity….and responded accordingly….
since the train of the discussion followed yours….you made the comment not me…what were you talking about?
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Well.
First of all, I didn’t know what you meant by “MS”. That’s what I was asking about in my last comment.
But regarding the previous comment, I really couldn’t tell if you were agreeing or disagreeing with me. I made a point about Barney and Castro hitting better higher in the order (now that Kosuke is gone) and you responded with comments about Castro’s streakiness (and I didn’t see how that was relevant) and a comment about walks. Re-reading what you wrote, were you saying that lineup placement is irrelevant in this case, and all both guys need to do is walk more?
Lastly, I apologize for misspelling “non sequitur”, but I’d like to see a middle school playground where the term is used.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I too
apologize for my reaction and statement.
I agreed with the placement in the order with Castro and Barney and should have mentioned it.
Castro’s streakiness is relative in that is multi hit games and not hitless games, esp as a lead off or #2 hitter…
chaulk it up as this AM grouchiness, insomnia effects
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
No problem.
I was confused and then really confused by MS.
But it’s all good.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Thank you gentlemen, I believe we done here.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 16, 2011 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
You miss Senor Gato...
I can tell…the sarcasm is fading. SNAP OUT OF IT!!!!!!!!
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
well done.
If only more arguments ad/or misunderstandings were handled the way you two handled that previous entanglement.
Well done sirs…
"I can't be held responsible for what I personally tell my goons to do...."- C. Montgomery Burns
BTW regarding Kosulke
Barney has 41 runs scored and 27 RBI’s hitting in the #2 spot 297 AB’s
Fukudome in August his split is: .294/.308/.373 .681-OPS
As a leadoff hitter with the Cubs he had 265 AB’s and scored 29 runs and 12 RBI’s
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
What the hell point are you trying to make?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Runs scored are a terrible way to evaluate a player.
Baseball is pitching, hitting, baserunning and defense.
by daver on Aug 16, 2011 10:05 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I disagree
runs scored is an important evaluative tool as to the effectiveness of the batting order in its entirety—-
meaning the object of putting together a batting order is to maximize the ability to score runs respective to the abilities of the players used.
Therefore, a leadoff hitter with 265 AB’s who has scored a mere 29 Runs (basically 44% of a season, normal leadoff hitters all season get 600+ AB’s), indicates that Fukudome in the role was not working…FOR THE TEAM,
That could be that Castro and others were also misplayed in their batting order roles, as Castro’s placement as a #3 hitter, a role where he was being asked to drive in runs his OPS was below .600!
Last year the top 5 lead off hitters were Crawford, Davis, McCutchen, Jackson, and Phillips; they scored respectively 110, 65, 94, 103 & 100 runs. Not stopping there, the next five could be; Prado, Kinsler, Pierre, Jeter and Ichiro, and they scored respectively; 100, 73, 96, 111, & 74 runs.
Projecting Kosulke’s numbers he still would have scored less than 60 runs in the lead off role with the Cubs.
I understand trying to evaluate a player in a vacuum but player performances are not in a vacuum and are in the context relative to other players in a lineup.
I guess I wasn’t so much so disgusted with Kosulke’s performance individually but he didn’t fit into the needs of the club.
What makes a good to top lead off hitter?
1) Make the pitcher work and reveal all of his pitches, so your teammates can see what pitches he has in his repertoire tonight.
Kosulke did that….
2) Making good contact with the baseball for a base hit coaxing a walk—-meaning getting on base
Kosulke did this
3) Forcing a pitchers’ move to first base, then being able to steal second base or if the opposition is sleeping—- stealing 3B.
Kosulke did not do this
4) Being able to score from any base hit to the outfield, even from 1B.
Kosulke did not do this
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
I have a better understanding of what you mean...
…and, though I still respect Kosuke, I’m not necessarily unhappy (from a strategic standpoint) that he was traded. But I also think you can shuffle this season’s batting order any which way you please and it wouldn’t have made a huge difference in the outcome of games. Dome made sense batting leadoff because of his OBP and pitches seen per plate appearance. His lack of speed was/is unfortunate but, honestly, look at some of the other leadoff hitters you mention — Ike Davis (presumably), Derek Jeter…these guys aren’t known for their speed either.
Baseball is pitching, hitting, baserunning and defense.
Davis and Jeter were not my examples
but are in a ratings article as the top ten of 2010 as far as lead off hitter, yet Jeter did score 111 runs (ranked 9th) and Davis (ranked 2nd) only scored 65.
The point is runs scored is the ultimate measure of offensive effectiveness since that is the only goal for the offense.
You may be correct as far as a lineup but I looked a Fukudome as more of a 4th OF’r and not starter. In that he could have played more LF and CF as well, esp when you look at Soriano’s splits. The whole decision process was flawed and the results are what they are.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
It's ridiculous to credit Derek Jeter...
as being more effective as a leadoff hitter because he has Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixiera, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, etc hitting around him. He plays on a better team. Put Fukudome on that team and he scores a crap ton of runs too… or maybe he doesn’t… either way, a player has absolutely nothing to do with how many runs he scores, past getting on base by any means necessary. You can’t claim Fukudome didn’t do that.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions
What exactly is this "ratings article"?
Could you post a link? And, again, you seem to be consuming players and teams. Runs scored is an effective measure of a team’s offensive success, but you seem to be implying that juggling the lineup would make a significant difference. I don’t think it would. Nor would I want to see Kosuke spend much, if any, time in centerfield. You said yourself he doesn’t have great speed and that would translate to reduced range in center. Of course, that’s not to say Marlon Byrd has great speed, but he’s a career center fielder who seems to have greatly honed his ability to read balls well and take good routes.
Baseball is pitching, hitting, baserunning and defense.
The players hitting behind Kosuke Fukudome sucked.
Stop blaming him for things that are far, far out of his control. For most of this season, he did his job and his overall numbers that he could control as a Cub reflected as such.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree, seems like he was throwing off the whole lineup really, an extra piece that didn't fit...
is he in the line-up everyday in Cleveland?
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Aug 16, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
He has started (and finished) every game Cleveland has played since the trade
I wish we could say the same for the guy who was supposed to be his primary replacement in RF.
by Jody Jody Davis on Aug 16, 2011 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I tried to find the line-up on the Indians site but couldn't,....do you know where they bat him?
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Aug 16, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
6 or 7.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions
He hit 5th once too, iirc
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions
ah...thanks for that, I was sort of curious about it
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Aug 16, 2011 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
He's actually playing CF because Choo has returned from injury.
And it’s pretty dumb that Cleveland is batting Choo 1st instead of their myriad options such as Fukudome, but he hasn’t really hit well for Cleveland… but Choo leading off is baffling.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
There's a lot of that to go around in Cleveland...
a lot of good too, though.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions
8th worst team in baseball
It was only 2 weeks ago Cubs were 2nd worst team.
They are moving on up!
Did the Cubs actively try to shop Zambrano in the offseason?
After his 8-0 performance the last 2 months, I would have thought there must have been some interest?
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse
I'm guessing...
… that the performance of the last two months of 2010, plus his good behavior, must have convinced the Cubs that he really had changed, and that they wanted to keep him.
Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation's Baseball Nation
Or that they wanted to keep him ...
partly because they knew that trading him would mean paying a good bit of the freight. That’s the thing with a lot of the guys on the Cubs right now. There has to be a cost-benefit analysis when trading guys who are somewhat productive but overpaid.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Aug 16, 2011 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
See that's where the true baseball guys
Guys that have ice in their blood and balls of steel would really have pushed moving Z last off-season on the sell-high note.
Of course hind-sight is 20-20 and anyone can be Monday morning quarterback, but honestly now, was there even 10-20% of the regulars here that thought Z would behave until the end of his current contract?
Just win the next game...!
Sickening thought
and this in no way means things would have gone differently, but imagine if we had a more qualified manager this year. Would fewer bonehead and bizarre moves/non-moves from a different manager have resulted in more wins, making this current run relevant?
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Aug 16, 2011 10:58 AM CDT reply actions
Not likely
Quade has made many boneheaded decisions, but I don’t think he’s made the difference in more than 5 or so games over the course of the year. We’d possibly be slightly less bad, but ultimately still bad.
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
To elaborate
We’re NL-average on offense (7th in OPS, 9th in runs). We’re next-to-last in team ERA, and we’re last in team defense. Quade’s managerial decisions wouldn’t change the pitching and defense enough to make this a competitive team.
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Right.
The season was arguably over when we lost Cashner and Wells (partly because Wells hasn’t been that good since he’s returned). In order to have enough pitching to contend, the Cubs needed all five of their original starters to have good years. Garza’s been good, and Dempster has been acceptable (good, if you throw April out). But that’s it. And the bullpen, which was supposed to be a strength, has been incredibly erratic, mostly because Wood and Marmol haven’t been lights out.
Maybe a better manager could have tightened up the defense. But not enough to matter.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I will argue that
indeed injuries took an early toll, but teams overcome injuries. Defense is a big problem, Cubs have the most unearned runs allowed in the NL 53 unearned runs and have 103 errors.
Also the lineup was so ineffective for much of the season, (May-July) where Cubs pre ASB OPS was .717 and post ASB is .744, (August .838, where June and July it was under .700)
I think Quade made things worse, maybe the Cubs might be hovering within 3-5 games of .500 right now but not still trying to get back to 10 games under .500 even after winning 12/15 games.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
I'm saying that everything had to go right for this team to compete.
Everything hasn’t gone right AND Quade’s been bad.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
that I have to agree with
in life as in metaphors like MLB, things rarely go all right or all wrong. But leaders, appointed or anointed can and will make things worse or better. Worse or better is a relative thing.
I actually never thought this was a genuine playoff contending team, it was always a team/roster in transition, though veiled for business reasons.
I now think the business reasons are predominate per personal and published comments from the Ricketts. Until a genuine commitment is made to fielding the best on field product and then realizing the benefits after the fact instead of visa versa the roster might always be in transition.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Are you even going to acknowledge why their OPS is that high in August?
Or are you just going to keep throwing out there and blaming Fukudome for all the Cubs’ ails? It’s entirely propped up by an unsustainable BABIP and has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with trading one of the few offensive bright spots on the team this year and replacing him with lesser, albeit temporarily luckier, players.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions
this would be an interesting research project
though it would have to be a collective piece of work, this group could do.
1st determine tactical baseball decisions that adversely affected the outcome.
A) Pitching decisions
B) Batting orders
C) substitution decisions
D) situational tactics, i.e. intentional walks, sacrifice bunts, squeeze on/off, defensive alignments, pinch hitter decisions
E) other?
We cannot measure specifically pre-game/series preparation or motivation but a collective-subjective grade (1-10) could be made via a community survey where an estimate (see above) of a plus/minus of W/L, my guess is that Quade is on the far edge of normal curves of games directly effected by manager decisions (in the negative) but it would be good to actually know.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Interesting, but ultimately too difficult to do and unlikely to get very robust data
You’ve listed a good list of important managerial decisions, but there’s just too much data and too much variability (subjectivity, random variation on any individual event, impact of any one event on a subsequent game situation, etc).
I have the same suspicion is that Quade makes more dumb decisions than most managers. But my guess is that the difference in mistakes doesn’t equate to a huge difference in results. Most of these mistakes result in very minute differences in win probability.
Of course, I basically have no desire to try to prove that one way or the other, as like I said I think it would take way too much work (even for the collective community) and would involve way too much variability (and potentially subjectivity).
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
this would have to be a project that is ongoing over the entire season
set up no different than an behavior research project where observers have established measurements to score game situations and decisions that resulted in game outcomes.
i.e., pitching changes. With game situations measured in the following up 1 run, tied or down 1 run, did the change result in a hold or save where there are points given depending on inning. Make up scoring with up 2 or down 2 , up 3 or down 3 et cetera.
Wild card points, bullpen exhausted for the next game or saved for the following game.
An interesting study could be made, what would be real interesting if this project was done by Sports Nation for every team and each manager is then scored. This would be the power of the Internet multiplied, fans actually measuring something the establishment might not welcome but also create a new metric
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Again though, we wouldn't no how much impact the decisions make
and the more different people you have collecting the data, the less objective those data collections become (too many cooks in the kitchen, so to speak).
The closest we could get would be a rough estimate of how many bad decisions were made. But (a) that would involve a lot of subjectivity and (b) we still wouldn’t know how much the decisions actually made a difference.
It’s an interesting question, but one that isn’t likely to produce anything meaningful.
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
BTW I meant that last sentence from a data perspective...
not that the idea isn’t meaningful. I think it’s a very interesting question. It would just take a TON of work to get a meaningful estimate of the actual impact of each decision.
You can’t just observe that decision A resulted in outcome Y and say anything meaningful about the impact of decision A because we don’t readily know how likely decision B would have also resulted in outcome Y. It would be very very very difficult to quantify the actual impact of each decision
by SouthernCub on Aug 16, 2011 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I concur
but, it would begin the process of dispelling many opinions, subjective or otherwise,
We have been able to dissect to the cellular level most player’s performances, why not begin moving towards a metric to dissect empirically a manager’s decision process.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
And I'm sure there are people working on it...
But they’re getting paid to do so, and they’re (hopefully) better at research than most of the folks on this and other message boards (no offense, everyone!).
behavior measurement is always tinged with subjectivity
that shouldn’t kill the idea at the onset.
Clinical trials is able to successfully measure within a degree of acceptable certainty behavior results across many observers and subjects.
First it would take twelve to fourteen persons per category, each taking a game a week, over the course of 26 weeks the measurements will work themselves to a statistical norm—-meaning if two persons are measuring a certain category per game the variances will even themselves out, (just like the subjective decision of who is scoring a game),
The big question will be properly administering the data and managing the usual issues of schedules et cetera.
If collected, and if administered, it would reveal actual empirical information, the accuracy would be challenged to a degree, but the overall would not. My guess is that manager’s have a greater import or effect on games than previously published.
It is why there are so few managers who have 1000 wins (57) and in that 42 have records with a winning percentage, or there are 213 managers who have managed 600 games who have a winning percentage, all out of a total of roughly 642 +/- managers who managed at least one season since 1900
57 managers represent 8.8% or less than 10% have won 1000 games and 6.5% have won a 1000 games with a winning record. Then 33% have managed in more than 600 games (about 4 seasons)
What I can say from these global outcomes is that roughly one-third of the managers hired are marginally good and about 6% are marginally great, meaning 2/3’s of most managers hired are poor and therefore make poor decisions.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
But this isn't behavioral analysis or a clinical trial
That much should be obvious.
The accuracy of a study conducted by a bunch of fans over the course of only one season with so many data flaws would be challenged a LOT more than behavioral analyses or clinical trials because the analyses have a very different goal than behavioral analysis and way more data problems than randomized clinical trials.
Probably not...so much more would still have had to go right for this roster to have a legitimate chance at the post-season.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 16, 2011 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
This season has been so mind numbingly bad
that I totally forgot about injuries, Wells being awful once returning, not being able to hit any runners in, etc.
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Aug 16, 2011 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
Maybe more wins but certainly not enough to put them in a competitive position
Just win the next game...!
TWHS
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 16, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Cashner should go back in the bullpen where he pitched in college
Maybe there’s a reason he was in the bullpen in college? Duh! No more square pegs in round holes. At worst I hope they play it safe with him for a year or two, there is no rush.
"Go Cubs!"
How about baby him as a starter for a year...
even start him in the minors, and then move him to the pen if that doesn’t work? Worst that happens is the Cubs get a reliever with a strong arm to pair with Marshall (assuming we retain him… as a reliever). Now’s the time to try things… but time’s a wastin’.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 16, 2011 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I thought maybe it
was just me not seeing a preview.
Be the kind of woman that when your feet hit the ground each morning the devil says, "OH CRAP, SHE'S UP"!
Here it is Tony.
It didn’t post on the front page.
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/8/16/2363874/chicago-cubs-houston-astros-preview-tuesday
Be the kind of woman that when your feet hit the ground each morning the devil says, "OH CRAP, SHE'S UP"!
Apology again.
I think I accidentally unchecked the “front page” box when I was preparing the preview, so it posted, but not on the front page.
Hey, it happens.
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