Cubs Lose To Astros On Walkoff Grand Slam
by Al Yellon on Aug 17, 2011 7:30 AM CDT
in Chicago Cubs Recaps
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PrintRecently, on a SABR discussion list to which I subscribe, there was talk of what one of the posters called the "Ultimate Grand Slam".
This describes a grand slam hit on a 3-2 count, with two out in the bottom of the ninth and the hitter's team trailing by three runs.
Last night's wasn't quite that -- the count was 2-2 and there was only one out in the inning -- but it's close enough. Pretty much everything else has happened in this house of horrors Cubs season, so why not give up a walkoff grand slam? And a pinch-hit GS as well -- the first pinch-hit grand slam of 2011 by anyone, and only the second home run of Brian Bogusevic's brief major league career.
It was the second walkoff slam, down three runs, this year -- Travis Hafner of the Indians hit one on July 7 against Toronto. It's the 26th such home run in MLB history. You'll note there is actually one Cub on that list, Ellis Burton, who did it on August 31, 1963. Oddly enough, it was also against Houston, and the final score was 6-5, just as it was in Tuesday night's loss to the Astros.
Had enough? I think we've all had enough of the 2011 season. Yet, it has 39 games to go.
Before that ninth inning, the Cubs had played another solid game. Ryan Dempster threw seven good innings. Kerry Wood was lights-out for the second straight day setting things up in the eighth inning for what you'd think would have been an easy save for Carlos Marmol. Tyler Colvin hit a two-run homer.
And then Marmol came into the game. Now, some of you will probably try to blame this loss on Jim Hendry, but Marmol -- who had posted eight saves, had a 1.04 ERA, 0.692 WHIP and 12 strikeouts in 8.2 innings this month -- looked like he was back on his game.
Until last night, that is. After retiring the first hitter in the ninth easily, Marmol lost it. In situations like that, a major league manager has to at the very least consider replacing the closer, as he would replace any other pitcher in any other inning who is struggling. Why wasn't Sean Marshall warming up after Marmol had struggled in throwing 18 pitches to the first three hitters? Then he threw another eight to Matt Downs and walked him. That would have been the perfect situation to bring in Marshall to throw to the lefthanded Bogusevic.
The Cubs have to decide what they're in the business of doing in situations like this: giving their closer "confidence", or winning baseball games. Just because a pitcher is a "closer" does not mean that you leave him in when he clearly doesn't have it. Sometimes, if you want to win, you've got to think outside the proverbial box.
Mike Quade didn't do that Tuesday night and so the Cubs join the list of 25 other teams -- since 1881! -- to give up walkoff grand slams, leading by three runs in the bottom of the ninth.
Someday, maybe we'll look back at the 2011 season and laugh. Not yet, though. There's another game this afternoon; the game preview will post at 11:30 a.m. CDT.
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Ouch. Sorry I missed this one.
Well, maybe not.
There are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary and there are 108 stitches in a baseball. Who says baseball isn't a religion?
Sounds like a locker cleaning performance
by Marmol.
WWFCD?
by katie casey on Aug 17, 2011 7:38 AM CDT reply actions 7 recs
I can't take this anymore!!!
When will it end?? I turned off WGN last night thinking it was a win…then I hear on radio this morning that the Astros win on a walk off GS. I just can’t take this anymore and I have been a Cubs fan since 1976!
by 1967cubbie on Aug 17, 2011 7:38 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I got home from work
and turned the game on in the BOTTOM of the 9th. Not sure which is worse.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Aug 17, 2011 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Does the pitching coach for the Cubs
EVER go out to a pitcher and talk to him? I don’t watch any games really, but I don’t think I have seen him yet this year.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
He does.
But not often enough. And I doubt it would have made much difference last night.
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Am I wrong or does Marmol throw stricltly sliders now
It seemed in the past that he would use the heater to set up the slider. It seems this year it’s all White Castles all the time lol
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
Last night he threw a fair number of fastballs.
Bogusevic hit the home run on a slider.
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Ok. The last game I watched Marmol a few weeks ago
I think his slider to fastball ratio was 10:1.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
Huh.
Thought that one was a slider. Guess he should have thrown one.
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Yep
Just watched it again this morning on MLB, and it was straight as an arrow down the heart. Still can’t believe it.
It was a fastball.....It was the only thing that seemed to be getting over for a strike.
Quade didnt see this of course and let Marshall enjoy the game from a chair.
Managers don't usually have another reliever up when their closer is in the game...
blaming Quade for this one seems like a reach.
I disagree
He has been shaky in the last 2 saves and has been demoted already once this season. Is it worth the closers confidence to lose the game? What about the feelings of the rest of the team?
It was obvious to most he didnt have it. That Quade didnt have Marshall ready or at least up, is on the manager.
While you make a good point about the lack
of confidence in Marmol, the loss is not on Quade.
Quade is a horrible manager, but having Marshall “up” isn’t going to change the outcome of the game.
'Never look down on anybody unless you're helping him up.'
by Unique on Aug 17, 2011 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Right.
At a certain point, your closer’s “confidence” has to take a back seat to winning.
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at a certain point you throw out the proverbial Conventions of a MLB Manager
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Walk off grand slams
are not good confidence builders, anyway.
A good manager is situational, and needs to know when to stick with the guy and when he is better off pulled. In this case, pulled is kind of the obvious choice, even without hindsight.
It was a slider.
tha’ts how bad his slider was, it looked almost straight. He got away with 2 hangers to downs. But it was a slider. says Marmol…
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/5994/marmols-bad-day-blows-win-for-cubs
By the way, that Marmol quote suggests it wasn't a slider...
He said the slider wasn’t good, so with two strikes he couldn’t go back to the slider.
He had just thrown two sliders for balls after 3 fastballs for strikes. So he went back to the fastball (92mph). It was down in the zone, but the hitter got it and drilled it.
Well Levine seems to believe it was a slider, and i would like to think he asked Marmol what the pitch was...
“Bogusevic, an Oak Lawn native, took his next slider out of the park for his his first career grand slam. "
either way, he shouldnt of been in the game at that point. doesn’t matter what he threw ha.
It had the velocity of a fastball and the trajectory of a fastball
I saw the pitch last night. Marmol’s slider is pretty distinctive, and this wasn’t it. Add to that the quote you provided seems to suggest it was a fastball as well. I’m inclined to believe that Levine was mistaken on this one.
But yes, it doesn’t really matter whether it was a fastball or a slider – the result was a long long HR.
True points.
i guess that shows how bad is slider was last night if i’m thinking a fastball looked the same haha.
Honestly even if the magic manager fairy
came down and made Q a great manager. This team sucks.
by Madison Cub Fan on Aug 17, 2011 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions
you mean something like this?
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Your right...
…it was clearly a fastball.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I'd guess he throws the slider about 75-80% of the time...
He gave up a HR on a fastball, by the way.
Marmol apparently doesn’t have much confidence in the fastball these days.
Len and Bob spoke of this
During the broadcast Len and Bob talked about this and what it would be like if Marmol went out there and threw nothing but heaters.
by rbarnold2626 on Aug 17, 2011 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions
maybe reason he didn't go @ deadline
His job is to deal with some of the things that the staff should be doing. He’s holding together things?
by Madison Cub Fan on Aug 17, 2011 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions
If that's true, this team is a complete mess and an utter joke
Chiefs Chat: chiefs.sportsblog.com
by Nunyabidness on Aug 17, 2011 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions
At 8:54 before I posted this
Didn’t you already think this team was a complete mess and utter joke?
by Madison Cub Fan on Aug 17, 2011 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions
MORE of a joke and mess
Chiefs Chat: chiefs.sportsblog.com
by Nunyabidness on Aug 17, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Riggins talking to him
may or may not have made a difference, but you should still go out and talk to him.
Go Cubs Go! Go Cubs Go!
Hey Chicago what do you say,
The Cubs are gonna win today!
Great observation...
and you’re right.
You never see him chatting with pitchers in the dugout either. What the hell does Riggins do?
So glad....
I turned off the game after Colvin’s blast. I loved the reaction by the Astros pitcher, priceless! It was a no doubt abouter!!
Just curious, was there at least a mound visit by either Quade or the pitching coach during the Marmol melt down? Geez, I can’t even remember his name for the lack of times I’ve seen come to talk to one of his pitchers.
by cubbiefanTN on Aug 17, 2011 7:41 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Al, this is why u trade Marmol
at the deadline, not because he blew the save, because he actually had some value. His contract goes way up the next two years as well. This is why Hendry needs to go, he still believes this team can compete and will do everything he can to save his job.
Al, would u trust Marmol to save postseason games? You think u can win the World Series with a closer who doesn’t consistently throw strikes? Would anyone trust him in game seven of a postseason game? Not me, that’s why u trade him if winning the world series is really the goal.
I have no problem trading Marmol.
As long as you get decent value for him.
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I still think my man Kerry could still do a good job
I have no stats in front of me, but my rather round gut says he’d be ok again.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
by BigJohnAZ on Aug 17, 2011 7:50 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm with you.
Wood seems to have gotten back into the groove. If they can move Marmol for good value, do it. Let Wood and Marshall hold down the closer spot until Carpenter or, should he not go back to the rotation, Cashner are ready to take it. I don’t think youcan win post season games with a guy who throws 50% of his pitches for balls.
Trading Marmol
The time to trade him and get alot back has prolly passed. Shoulda dealt him at the deadline…….hopefully he can be moved this winter. “Value” for him would simply be getting rid of that contract
While I do think trading Marmol would be smart
He’s definitely not bad enough that you simply look to drop for nothing.
He was in his biggest slump right before the deadline...
so the time to trade him was probably last year or last offseason. His July had already really hurt his trade value.
What on earth
"Value" for him would simply be getting rid of that contract
Oh my.
First off, even a diminished Marmol is valuable. He’s still striking out 11+ guys per 9 innings, and his ERA is out of line with his FIP, which is decent. If he was available he would have suitors. He’s in a slump right now, and that slump started before the trade deadline, but he’s still got nasty stuff and can get back on track. He’s only 1 year removed from one of the most dominant seasons by a reliever in baseball history.
And you clearly don’t understand MLB contracts if you think the Cubs need to “get rid” of that contract – if they wanted to get rid of him they could just non-tender him in the off-season.
But I think it's still dealable.
Someone will take him, and offer some value in return. I think the Cubs should do it.
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I still think he has value.
He’s been good this year, just not as great as last year. I guess I don’t see any reason to deal him.
Good to see Colvin
hit a jack and Demp threw well after about 50+ pitches in the first 2 innings.
I think Marmol is a good closer on a team that will win 80-85 games. He will have streaks like mentioned up to last night. He can be lights out for 3 weeks then turn on a dime and struggle for 4 games in a row. 2009 he struggled with a WHIP of 1.4, 2010 he was tremendous and now this year a struggle with a WHIP of 1.3. WHIP’s in that range for closers is not good.
No offense TJ
but I think we should probably block each other that day. I’m sensing this is going to be quite a big day for you!!!!!! and since I’m generally a softie and likely to buy into anything Ricketts has to say it might be best to ignore each other.
WWFCD?
Hilarious!
Do you think I am gearing up for the incredibly stupid announcement that Hendry and Quade will return?
I am sure there will be a few defenders on that day. You will not be alone.
Just me guesinng
But with draft signing perfect time for him to talk about how the farm system is improving and that is a positive since he took over the team.
Deflecting questions that about any of the topics we care about.
by Madison Cub Fan on Aug 17, 2011 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I do care if the farm system improving.
It’s one of the few things giving me hope. That is what I’d like to hear about.
WWFCD?
If thats all he talks about or possibly hiring an actual baseball guy to be president, fine..
But when he says Hendry and Quade are coming back next year, announcing it now for no reason, it is going to hit the fan.
Yep there is no question
Tom will bring back the two. I see no other reason for this planned presser.
Really?
I’d think there would be many possible reasons for Tom’s announcement. Until we hear it, everything posted here is guessing, including by me, and I have no guesses.
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Katie
There is another option, sign out of bcb & just read some of the comments. I find by scrolling though them not signed in keeps me out of the debate.
by Madison Cub Fan on Aug 17, 2011 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions
That is what I will likely do
B/c I can think about maybe 5 things that I don’t want to hear. A few I’d like sincerely addressed with I just don’t see honest answers.
by Madison Cub Fan on Aug 17, 2011 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes.
But the roof would have been closed in that case.
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Losing a game that way is more memorable than winning one with a slam...
The proof for me is that while I have no recollection of Burton’s HR in ‘63, I clearly remember the radio broadcast of Roberto Clemente’s inside-the-park slam against the Cubs in a night game at Forbes Field in 1956. Jack Quinlan’s dramatic call of this HR belongs in any collection of Cubs lowlights. FWIW, here’s the link to that game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT195607250.shtml
As you can see, the Cubs staged late-inning rallies to take the lead, only to have Turk Lown and Jim Brosnan give it all away without retiring a batter in the ninth.
On a positive note, Marmol’s collapse appears to be the Cubs first walk-off loss with a three-run lead since that game ’56. It happens every 55 years, just like clockwork.
"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62
"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64
I remember the Ellis Burton game
I got a refresher from the Baseball-Reference link in the original topic (above), but there’s a couple more things I can add …
Actually it was a FIVE-run come-from-behind victory - and all the runs came with two out! Ken Hubbs led off with a flyout, and Merritt Ranew (who hit just under .400 for most of the season) followed with a single. Then Dick Bertel flied out for the second out. Don Landrum pinch-hit, and reached on a drag bunt down the third-base line. Andre Rogers followed with a base hit (driving in Ranew), and Houston (then the Colt .45s) brought in Hal Woodeshick (who was lights-out that year) to pitch to Lou Brock. Leo Burke (!) pinch hit for Brock (!!!), and worked Woodeshick for a walk. That’s when Burton (my favorite player at the time) came to bat, and launced one into the bleachers …
Never did understand why Burton didn't play CF for the Cubs for several years after his productive debut in '63.
Instead, in ‘64 we got Billy Cowan, with his 5-1 K to W ratio. IIRC, the Cubs gave the switch-hitting Burton a September call-up where he hit HR’s from both sides of the plate in a game against the Braves.
"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62
"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64
Because Burton wasn't really that good.
He hit only .230 in ’63. He did get that September callup in ’64 and played a lot of the time, but hit .184 that month. I imagine if he had done better in that callup, he might have kept the job.
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... and in '64, the Cubs had found the next Duke Snider ...
They brought up their latest phenom: Billy Cowan. He played pretty good CF, had some power and was seriously fast.
Unfortunately, he wasn’t fast enough to steal 1B, and he struck out like Rob Deer. After the ‘64 season, they traded him to the Mets - for George Altman (who had been a much better player than Cowan, but didn’t do well over the next couple of years (injuries? I don’t remember)). According to an infallible source (Wikipedia …) he had some success playing in Japan from ’68 to ’75.
Meanwhile, Cowan had some modest success as a part-time player for the Angels (’69 –’71) before fading away into obscurity - like all the other Cubs’ phenoms of that time …
Burton got back up to the Cubs for a cup of coffee in ’65, but apparently retired after that. I guess once you’ve tasted the Cubs, nothing else is good enough.
In the bag, then the bag leaked.
I thought the game was over and now this. Add it to the list.
I really think we can catch a team or two in front of us. The Reds are really limping and may call it quits on defending their title. They have to be disappointed and will probably check out soon.
We'll miss you Big Boy. #10 for Hall of Fame.
I could see the fear on his face
Seriously. When bad Marmol is on the mound, you know it. Look closely at his face. He looks scared. I’m not even joking. I had a strange feeling a walk of grand slam was in the making when there were still only 2 men on base. Have the pitching coach call me next time Marmol is closing and I’ll let him know when to take Marmol out. Something gets in his head and he can’t throw his slider. I think he only threw one or two good sliders last night.
When his slider isn't working, it's real bad, real fat for the hitters.
Instead of coming in flat and breaking at the end, it is just what I would describe as a rainbow pitch, a big fat floater. I know nothing about pitching dynamics, but it really just seems like he has trouble finding his arm slot for those sliders, and then bad things happen.
Ah well, I suppose maybe I am just recalling what
I heard him say then, without realizing it. Bottom line seems to be that Marmol loses confidence in himself or his slider. We know he has a nasty slider, so it seems it must be in his head when he has trouble throwing it.
Of course I Bleed Cubbie Blue, but...
Part of me was happy for the Astros. Somewhere out there in that (small) crowd was a kid with his Dad watching his first ever Astros/MLB game. They got hot dogs and popcorn and ice cream and a new Astros hat and they cheered for the home team. And they stayed until the bottom of the 9th inning when, somehow, against all odds, the Astros loaded the bases against one of the nastiest (go with me here) closers in baseball and Brain B. (one of the new Killer B’s) crushes a grand slam to win the game!! ASTROS WIN! ASTROS WIN! The kid goes crazy, the dad hugs his kid and they have a memory that will last them a lifetime…
Now, don’t you feel good for that kid and his dad? I know I do…
Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in!
by DKT on Aug 17, 2011 8:10 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I like to see the good in things
But that is a tough one to come up with. I see the Dad getting his kid the heck out of there just before the end of the game so as not to hang around and soak up the disappointment, only to hear on the radio that they won. LOL!
(i agree with your scenario completely)
buy my cynical 2011 cubs fan brain is saying…somewhere there’s a dad and his kid who live in houston, but the dad was originally from illinois and so he’s passed on the cubs fan gene to his son, and they go to their first “cubs” game and they stick around for the win to so the dad and son can sing “go cubs go” to themselves, only to watch that Grand slam an the cubs love in glorious fashion. and now the kid will have a bitter taste/absolute love for the Cubs that will last a lifetime.
Now dont you feel terrible for that kid?
( this has all been in snarkiness)
by epsilon on Aug 17, 2011 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
It did cross my mind that this had to be fun for Astro fans,
but my thought lacked your imagination.
WWFCD?
For Cubs fans, it's a crushing defeat...
For Astros fans, it’s the BEST WIN EVER!!
I guess it’s easier to joke about this game because both teams are so bad this year. Can you imagine this defeat if the Cubs were in a pennant race?? It would have been worse than Brant Brown!
Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in!
They did have that one year in our lifetime...
when they actually went to the World Series.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 17, 2011 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
This game is on Quade IMO
Al mentioned that…
Marmol — who had posted eight saves, had a 1.04 ERA, 0.692 WHIP and 12 strikeouts in 8.2 innings this month — looked like he was back on his game.
But in those last few games he has been putting a lot of runners on base, and looking very shaky in the process. Obviously, his slider isn’t doing the wonderful things it did last year and batters are taking more pitches off him, thus getting more walks. Just look at his WHIP in those last 8 games.
Bottom line is that Q needs to have a backup pitcher ready when Marmol is pitching and not be afraid to to take him out if he is struggling mightily (like last night).
If you think you've seen it all...just wait!
by CubFanSince1970 on Aug 17, 2011 8:10 AM CDT reply actions
Putting a lot of runners on base?
Not with a 0.692 WHIP. Six baserunners in 8.2 innings. Not a lot.
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He put 3 batters on in that last game against Atlanta and gave up 4 baserunners last night.
That’s seven by my counting (in just two games).
What did he do in the other 6?
If you think you've seen it all...just wait!
by CubFanSince1970 on Aug 17, 2011 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Not sure.
I just used bb-ref to add up all eight games. That did NOT include last night.
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In 8 of his previous 9 outings (prior to last night)
Marmol had given up only 2 baserunners TOTAL (no hits). He had 10 K in 7.2 IP.
?????
Marmol had 7 runners in the last 9 outings. 2 hits , 4 walks and one hit batsman.
I am not saying he was terrible but he was not totally lights out either.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 17, 2011 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions
The poster asked what his numbers were OUTSIDE of the Atlanta game...
So take away the 2 H and 2 of the BB as they were in the Atlanta game. I hadn’t seen the HBP, so make it 4 baserunners (no hits) in those 8 of the 9 last nine.
And to address your point
8 runners with 12 K in the last 9 outings is still pretty darn good. And that’s ignoring the fact that we were talking about the games other than the one big blowup game this month.
Marmol had had one bad outing this month, and hadn’t really been touched in the others. Of course, in hindsight, he didn’t have it last night. But going to him last night wasn’t a bad decision a priori.
My problem is just that he has pitched too much
in the last two weeks. Russell was warming up with him. With a 3 run lead and Marmol used so much I would started the inning with Russell. I don’t think leaving him in was so terrible because either he is your closer or he isn’t
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 17, 2011 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Pretty much yes
Closers rarely get removed, especially if they have gotten a guy out and only one run has scored. Marmol may be a unique case in the good Carlos/ bad Carlos is easy to spot sometime, but to be fair this was not a case where he was just walking multiple batters on 4 pitches. 21 of his 32 pitches were strikes. As you know the HR was unusual for Marmol. If he had WALKED the guy with the bases loaded than maybe you take him out and Russell was warmed up.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 17, 2011 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That would take "out of the Box" thinking as Al said.....
That DOES NOT HAPPEN with this coaching staff.
here is my gift to Quade and staff
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
But how was the game, Mrs. Yellon... ;-)
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
AWESOME! Glad I didn't watch it.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
Marmol
28 for 36 is 78% save rate. Kevin Gregg was around there wasn’t he?? Get rid of this guy and put Woody in there next year and groom someone else for the job down the line. Another colossal waste of money
No.
He’s too erratic and walks too many guys — he’d be just like Marmol.
Carpenter is the guy I’d like to see.
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Watching Marmol
It’s pretty clear, his slider is not dropping like it used to! If you watch Marmol, he gets fouled off a lot more and has given up more hits/inning than the last 3 years. Watch his slider next time…it has little downward movement (unless it’s clearly a ball).
I'd give Marmol the rest of the season off from closing...
and let those two try it. (Since I have to bother thinking about closers and saves at all.)
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 17, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes lets get rid of a guy coming off of one of the most dominant seasons by a reliever ever
…because of a couple of bad outings. And replace him with a pitcher who has been nearly as shaky this year.
by Wreckard on Aug 17, 2011 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Just because Marmol was dominant in 2010...
… does not mean he can or will do that in 2012 or future seasons.
Wood may not be the answer. But Carpenter or someone else might be.
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You could say that about any player in baseball.
My point is that he has very recently been not just ok, not just good, but amazing. Dominant.
He’s shown flashes of it this year. He’s healthy. He’s young. He still has good stuff. He’s clearly struggling with his mechanics.
I just don’t understand how a couple of inconsistent months has people ready to give up on someone who was so recently the best player on the Cubs team.
by Wreckard on Aug 17, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because you can make just about anyone a closer.
If you think he has that much value, then maybe it’s time to sell high on him.
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In what universe is trading someone after a bad season selling high?
My point is that he has a good chance of returning to dominance. The value you’d have if he does that is much higher than if you trade him. Especially considering that given what he’s owed, and that he’s had an off year, I don’t think you’d fetch a huge package in return. Certainly nothing like what the Padres got for Adams.
Because you can make just about anyone a closer.
This is a pretty absurd thing to say. But setting it aside for a second, sure anyone can be a closer – but dominant relievers are extremely rare. And Marmol has the potential to be just that.
You’re better off rolling the dice on him next year, and if you really aren’t competitive – trade him at the deadline then. If he returns to dominance then you might actually get a top-50 prospect in return. And if you are competitive – it will be because you have bounceback years from guys like Marmol.
I wonder about a "bounceback year".
Because it appears that his year of dominance may be the outlier.
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How many blown saves does this team have?
Aside from Marmol’s 8, Wood and Marshall have given up leads in late innings their fair share….Our bullpen is only average despite some quality outings.
I bet we’re in the top 20% of blown saves, and think Marmol is No. 1. I read somewhere he might add a changeup which he had and used when first came up as a starter. Good idea!!
According to FanGraphs...
the Cubs have the 16th most shutdowns and the 11th most meltdowns.
Read more about these stats and why they’re much better than saves/blown saves here.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 17, 2011 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Marmol's velocity appears to be down.
His Fastball is at 91-92, which would still be decent if he could throw it to spots. However, he can’t. Further, the velocity margin between his slider and his fastball has decreased and I imagine that is one of the reasons why both of his pitches are becoming more hittable.
I imagine at the end of the year we will hear about how Marmol needs offseason surgery.
"All I want is food and creative love" - Rusted Root
I'm guessing that the break on his slider isn't as sharp either
he’s still throwing it mid-80s, but it doesn’t seem to be buckling hitters quite as much as it used to do. But the 3-5mph loss of velocity on the fastball is worrisome.
what Valentine and Hershiser discussed
A slider dominant closer starts to lose his effectiveness over time, the lose their command and velocity of their fastball and start to rely on their slider even more, where they lose their effectiveness in their slider because batters begin to sit on it knowing they can catch or lay off the fastball anyway.
There is a fine line to closers, they need a fastball that is overpowering and a trick pitch, something that bends, where batters are keyed up in trying to catch a fastball that is in the strike zone, and either lay off a bender or swing and miss because of their timing.
Marmol used to have a FB at 95-96, though straight it was thrown for strikes, often the first pitch. Then he had a sharp late breaking slider, it bent down and he could either spot it on their hands or back door or have it break off the plate as they would swing and miss.
That was 2009-2010.
Now his FB is 91-92 at best, and not thrown for strikes where he is pitching his slider 65-70%. Cubs need to package him this year and dump him
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
I agree with a lot of what you said here...
but Marmol never threw a lot of pitches for strikes. He’s been wild from the beginning. His walk rate has always been really high (it’s actually slightly lower this year than his career average).
It’s just that people used to not be able to hit him because his stuff was electric. This year, his stuff is less electric, and people are hitting him more. He’s giving up 7.4 hits per 9 IP (his previous norms were 4-5 hits per 9 IP), while his K rate and BB rate are about the same as his career averages.
just read this Gem by Gene Duffey(?) on cubs.com
Despite the talent on the roster, the Cubs were never truly in the National League Central race this season.
what talent? I mean this question in all honesty….What talent did he see that would carry this team to the division title? do we have a first baseman better than Albert, Joey, Prince? nope(maybe in the field, but all three are certainly not hurting their teams). do we have a better 2b, RF, LF, CF…is our pitching staff better than any in the division except houstons?
Ok, so now we're at this.
We’re blaming Quade for not wanting to win?
Hasn’t the narrative been for a couple of weeks now that we don’t want a big dead cat bounce so that Quade keep his job?
Now he does what you want him to and you’re not happy?
Cubs fans, no pleasing them.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Aug 17, 2011 8:45 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I think we'd like to see competent managing on a consistant basis
Marmol has been EXTREMELY untrustworthy this season. He allowed three straight base runners after getting the first out. It’s not – you know – inconceivable to take Marmol out at that point.
Here’s my question, do you have a problem with the way the 9th inning was handled? Would you have left a closer who’s been pretty shaky this season on the mound after he loaded the bases with only one out? If you don’t, then…well, I don’t get you.
If you DO have a problem with that decisions, the STFU and stop attacking people for sharing your opinion.
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by Nunyabidness on Aug 17, 2011 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions
To clarify, at this point in the season, competent managing means playing the youngster over the veteran to see what he has
but it also means actually going for a win when you’re up 3 in the ninth. No one is asking Quade to throw games.
Chiefs Chat: chiefs.sportsblog.com
by Nunyabidness on Aug 17, 2011 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Marshall wasn't an option, as has been pointed out.
Wood hasn’t been lights out either. And the rest of the pen is no better than Marmol at that point.
Like it or not, Marmol is your closer, and you have to use him to close, especially after he’s had a day of rest. If he blows a save, that’s not bad management, that’s bad pitching. I can’t think of a single manager who would get up someone to supplant their reliever.
Oh, and STFU? Kiss off. Only one guy here gets to make that decision, and you aren’t him. Save your incivility for someone else.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Aug 18, 2011 3:07 AM CDT up reply actions
When Marmol is on
When Marmol is on, he has stuff that can be lights out. He can also be serviceable as a closer. When he’s off, he’s one of the worst pitchers I’ve ever seen. I’ll say this and I’ll say it again. I don’t like Marmol as a closer. He’s far too inconsistent and even when he’s on, he makes me want to forcefully yank the hair from my head.
What I don’t get is why many managers will watch their closer blow games. I know they talk about confidence, but what does a game like that do for Marmol’s confidence? I know the Cubs are out of contention, but the object is to win games. The Cubs should have gone to yellow alert and had Marshall getting ready in the bullpen. Who says the closer is the one who has to earn a save? Sometimes you have to think outside the box to win games and many managers aren’t willing to do that when it comes to their closers. It isn’t just a Quade problem.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010) and Ron Santo (February 25, 1940-December 2, 2010).
If you disagree with me in any way, you are wrong.
by Ace Venom on Aug 17, 2011 8:51 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Exactly.
Most modern managers won’t do what you suggest — but they should.
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I agree...
Quade’s handling of Marmol is pretty standard for managers. I guess the thinking is that the managers don’t want their closer looking over his shoulder to who’s warming up in the bullpen. It’s a show of faith move.
Stats guys have been suggesting the “using your closer in the toughest situation” argument for years. The problem is that the finances of baseball are stat driven. And right now, saves are the biggest stat for a relief pitcher.
It’s stupid, but that’s the way it is. Maybe someday someone will figure out a better system for valuing relievers (heck, there are options out there already) instead of the save, maybe we’d eventually see this happen.
There are better stats than the save out there
Marmol’s WHIP has skyrocketed from last season (1.185 in 2010 vs. 1.448 in 2011). What accounts for this rise in WHIP has been his elevated H/9 ratio. This confirms what I’ve seen from Marmol this year. His walks are about the same on average (5.7 BB/9 in 2011 vs. 6.0 BB/9 in 2010), but his pitches are much more hittable now (7.4 H/9 in 2011 vs. 4.6 H/9 in 2010). This is not very encouraging for someone you want as your regular closer.
For those of you who like WAR, he accumulated 3.0 rWAR as a reliever last season, which is a very successful season for a reliever. Many regular position players don’t crack 3.0 rWAR in a season. Marmol’s value as a reliever was at its highest after 2010, but it’s dropped significantly since then. He may have a problem with his mechanics this season, but the drop in his velocity is not encouraging either. It would probably be beneficial to him in the long run to start working on his changeup again.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010) and Ron Santo (February 25, 1940-December 2, 2010).
If you disagree with me in any way, you are wrong.
What else?
I keep asking myself that question and the Cubs seem to find ways to answer it time and again this year. I’ll stop asking now.
We've been HENDRIED again
As I commented in late July, the Cubs should’ve traded everyone and anyone except Castro (and maybe Barney).
Marmol can easily be replaced, especially without any type of qualified pitching coach. Also, we think of Marmol as a young guy still…he’s not. He’s expensive! Cubs could’ve got a real prospect for him.
I mean, would Kerry Wood be putting up any worse stats than Marmol? Would even Carpenter?
I knew someone would blame Hendry for this loss.
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Losses are good
I really don’t care about the loss (besides the 10 second sting0, I care that we have ANOTHER expensive contract that is wasting away here. Cubs could’ve saved payroll and added a quality prospect.
Hendry did not throw the pitch.....
But he has put this team and coaching staff together…..
But no, the closer did not do his job last night and that is on him.
That said Marshall should have been pitching to the last batter.
2011 Hopes
As I posted…what do the cubs hope to get out of 2011??? Sitting on tradeable assets is dumb. Why waste everyones time and just play out the string. Like I said, the loss isn’t a big deal, it’s that cubs are wasting valuable 2 months and tradeable assets!
I disagree with that TJ
Marmol is the closer. He has been strong lately. You would think he could get a save against the worst team in baseball.
But yes this is the 2011 Cubs.
Unfortunately in MLB...
he would have been a steal at that price, if you could count on him. The whole system of how players get paid and built-in increasing cost regardless of economic realities is broken.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 17, 2011 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
What's the record?
Well, who’s responsible for being 15 under .500 in a medicore division? This roster is 100% Hendry. Besides that, he hired the most unqualified manager we’ve seen since Bruce Kimm!
But pinning this specific loss on him......
I don’t think so. Overall season yes.
by Madison Cub Fan on Aug 17, 2011 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Overall Problems
My point was, any fan who watches the cubs sees a clear problem with Marmol. His slider isn’t as devastating…so combine that with his usual lack of control and he’s very hittable…and expensive. Could have got a decent prospect and saved 8 mil towards a starting pitcher!
So, then what?
Your thesis is that Marmol should have been traded, a prospect inserted into that role, and then “Presto!” A Cubs closer never blows a save again?
Really, I can appreciate your thoughts about trading Marmol (I probably would have), but we’re talking about this game. Fact is, closers blow saves. When stats start getting collected for blown saves by GMs who should have traded the pitcher in the first place but didn’t, then we’ll have something to talk about.
by Damen Jackson on Aug 17, 2011 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You don't have to insert a _prospect_ into that role
Marshall or Wood can easily fill the role for the rest of the season and help us accumulate some more meaningless wins. You trade Marmol to save money. You sell high and buy low, basic economics. Unless you are talking about Mariano Rivera, no one in the pen should be untouchable especially the costlier ones.
Let's just deal with the matter at hand...
Premier closer comes in with a big lead, and blows it. That’s on the personnel, not the organization. It’s not like Marmol hasn’t been very, very good in these situations before. If not him, then who?
by Damen Jackson on Aug 17, 2011 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Few notes on last nights game:
1) Kerry Wood needs to close going forward. He wants to stay in Chicago and if he can do better than Marmol in this job, he should be the Cubs Mariano Rivera for the next 5 or so years.
2) Astros are a pesky team no matter how good or bad they or we are. I feel like they always get revenge in the 9th against us.
3) I hate that I texted my buddy 1 minute before the grand slam happened and said “I smell a grandslam”. He txt’d me back and asid how did i know. My only response: “I’ve been a Cubs fan way too long”.
Wood ain't no Rivera and wishin' won't make it so
1) HA!
2) HAHA!!
3) HAHAHA!!!
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by Gibbon Jockey on Aug 17, 2011 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If your mad about this get over it.
I was a good game we just blew it. If your really surprised about this just stop and look at the standings 17-18 games out and 15 games under .500. I wish we would have won but please do not get mad. Save your anger. Also what is with this Wood stuff he wasn’t any better when he was a closer and not any better this year he is just on a good streak but it will end
On a Positive Note!
As easy and unfortunate it is to be angry, depressed and negative about the season, Ricketts is standing behind one major thing that I like about him from the start:
*Draft and farm system.
Spending almost triple on the draft is showing that he truly wants to make this a long term winner. I’m excited about several of the draft picks. Now while 2012 will be close to a repeat of this year, beyond that, there may be some hope!
Give him a chance
These aren’t 7 year soriano contracts. Draftees are always a gamble, but that’s how it has to start! Ricketts is investing in DR and the draft, I really have a feellng he’s going to get some solid production out of both.
And the nightmare continues
Why didn’t Riggins go out to the mound at some point while Marmol was loading the bases? I just don’t understand this coaching staff.
I've said it before and I'll say it again.
Why is there such an emphasis on ensuring your pitcher has “confidence”? All of us working in offices, or driving trucks, or managing households, or whatever have our bad days but I can never remember my boss coming up to me and asking “how’s your confidence?” This may have happened in grade school (but probably not – nuns in the 60’s were not big on confidence building) but not in the real world. These pitchers who worry so much about confidence are grown men being paid millions of dollars to play a game. They have risen to the top of their profession and yet there is always a concern about confidence.
In a perfect baseball world this would be the conversation on the mound when a pitcher is throwing like Marmol did last night:
Pitching coach: “Are you ok? Are you hurt?”
Closer: “No, I’m ok. I’m not hurt.”
Pitching coach: “Then throw strikes or we will find someone who can.”
No discussions about confidence or feelings – throw strikes or get out.
OK, I feel better now.
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living. ~Alvin Dark
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
And if millions of people were watching you do something extremely difficult for your job, I’d think you’d need to have a little faith in yourself
There’s not really a good comparison between those jobs and playing baseball.
After the second runner got on last night
I told my wife to put on whatever she wanted to watch because Marmol would put another guy on and give up the Grand Slam. Maybe 15 minutes later as we’re watching the news, she gave me this look like “How did you know that would happen?”
Marmol’s outing last night was one of those where the hitters refuse to buy his BS and just watched the balls sail by, sometimes literally. Only time he was getting something over the plate it was high and dead center over the plate, perfect pitch to swing on. It may have been the third batter he faced, and pitches 3 and 5 were exactly like that.
That’s why Marmol needs to be dealt. He works some seriously messed up voodoo sometimes, but other times hitters are just going to stand there like a statue because they know this guy can’t hit the strike zone to save his life. If we’re ever in contention again, he is not the guy I want in a closing situation because of the risk that comes with him.
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by Craig in South Bend on Aug 17, 2011 10:07 AM CDT reply actions
Sounds like a broken record...
I remember watching games last season and thinking, “Hmmmm, Marmol really does like to walk guys,” and, “Hmmmm, if I were an opposing batter, I’d just keep my bat on my shoulder because this guy isn’t throwing strikes.” In fact, I remember a game @ATL where my friend (a Braves fan) was texting me congratulations in the bottom of the 9th. I told him that they’d win if Marmol walked the first guy… He walked two, gave up a couple of hits, then a bases clearing triple for the win. This is just par for the course for the guy.
Maybe that’s the worst part of it. I’m not even surprised it happened. I try to be a positive Cubs fan because the cliche of depressed, self-loathing, loss-expecting Cubs fan is just lame. Still, what do you do when you watch this, shrug your shoulders and move on. I should be livid, but I just find myself indifferent. This season can’t end fast enough.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
I agree
It will go a lot faster when Football starts.
by lshaffer_69 on Aug 17, 2011 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Can't wait!
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
by KennardHusker on Aug 17, 2011 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
The reason Marshall didn't pitch last night?
He had pitched in each of the previous three games, so he had the night off (as did Shark). It’s the same reason Wood closed Monday’s game instead of Marmol.
by Jody Jody Davis on Aug 17, 2011 10:25 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Yep
Plus Marmol is the closer and had a day off the day before. I still can’t believe he didn’t get a visit from a coach though. At least to give him a breather.
I couldn't believe that either
Well, knowing how incompetent Riggins and Quade are, actually I can believe it. But someone should have gone out to calm him down, especially after the walk to load the bases.
by Jody Jody Davis on Aug 17, 2011 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
His mechanics were way off
he was dropping his arm and the slider was flat. Brenly commented on it several times. Why can’t Riggins or Quade see this?
because they aren't remotely competent
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by Nunyabidness on Aug 17, 2011 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Look What Do You Want Me To Do?
He is the closer
It is just a screen name.
by Fat Punk Kicker on Aug 17, 2011 10:32 AM CDT reply actions
Marmol
MLB used to have a Fireman Award for the guy that gets you out of a jam, when they give one for GETTING into jams C. Mar would be the hands down winner. every time he comes in I fear the worst, and for good reason.
My dad and brother
were at the game on Aug. 31, 1963 when Ellis Burton hit the grand slam. As the story goes, my dad was talking with the people around him as Burton came up and said that Burton was going to hit the slam and sure enough that’s what happened.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~Earl Wilson
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