Chicago Cubs Top 40 Prospects

System Overview: The bad. This system is not very good at the higher minors. It lacks impact players. Yes I've heard a scout said the Cubs had more probable ML players then any other system. The problem is it's a solid ML average player (Jackson maybe Vitters), 4th OF type (Ha), UTL (Flaherty, LeMahieu, Cerda, Watkins), Mid rotation SP (McNutt, though he has the upside of a 2), and bullpen arms (Carpenter, Dolis, Beliveau, potentially McNutt also). Nice players to fill out a contending roster but not players you win championships on their backs. Josh77 had a great article about past W.S. winners and how they all had I think 2 HOF caliber (or already HOF) players on their rosters. They also need 2-4 above average ML players. Josh link that article in this thread if you could. I think  it helps to make a point and it was just a flat out good read. Hopefully we have that 1st piece of perenial A.S. in Castro.

The good. Ricketts have spent something like 20-25 million on IFA's the last 2 years and the draft this year. We have a huge influx of talent but it is all very far away from making any impact on the ML roster. It's gonna take a few years to sort out who is actually good and who flames out. Hopefully with just the pure number of players we have signed potenialy we can get another Castro caliber player and a couple above average ML players. Only time will tell. The thing is the strength of our system is now mostly potenial. I asked JiM Callis today in his prospect chat where he thought the Cubs system ranked and he said that the system was middle of the pack with very good depth. The ranking is actually optimistic imo. I wold said no better then 20 and probably closer to the 25 range.

I applaud the Rickeets by putting the cash into player development. I was against signing a guy like Adam Dunn. even if Dunn was putting up his normal season had he been a Cub he still would not have made much difference for 2011 or even 2012. The money that would ahve been spent on him over the next 4 years would be better spent on young players.

Draft: We spent $1.5 million this year or just slightly less then we have spent on the past 3 drafts. I think that speaks volumes! I'm not gonna rehash the draft but I know there is a few more names I could added from this draft class but I ahve to stop somewhere. we are doing what I have been lobbying for since 2008. I like the direction we are moving in.

1. OF. Brett Jackson - AAA - Sept. 2011/Early 2012 - I like but don't love BJax. Does a lot of things well but nothing outstanding. Good spped/power combo. Draws a ton of walks which I love. The problem here is take out 2010's 8/19 start once he promoted to AA and this years hot 3 week start and your talking about a guy who has hit 250ish in AA. He K's way to much and does not have the ability to make consistent contact at this point. Jackson has been said to be more of a solid regular then an A.S. caliber player.

IMO the best we can expect from him is a Mike Cameron type offensive type player. The thing is I still have serious doubts about Jacksons ability to hit for average. His OBP should help offset his AVG but your looking at a 250-260 from what I see now.

2. RHP. Kenneth "Trey" McNutt - AA - Mid to late 2012 - Disapointing season. The talent is still there though. Plus FB/CB and his CU is actually far better this season. Part of his problem has been the HRA and being hitable. Very well could be written off to blister problems. K/9 rate has been coming back twoard 2010's #'s.

3. SS. Javier Baez - Best H.S. bat in the 2011 draft. Uber quick bat speed. Is the 1 player who profiles as a potential A.S. Has the most upside in the system right now and probably talent wise should be the #1 prospect. Will move to 3B but has plenty of bat for the move.  Before I rate him higher I would like to see what the PD is gonna look like. I know the #'s were ridiculously in favor for his BB/K rate but probably more of a product of being far more talented and H.S. pitchers working aorund him the above average PD.

4. CF. Matt Szczur - LA/hA - late 2013 - Cautiously optimistic about him. Szczur profiles as a dynamic true CF/leadoff guy. Barrels balls well combined with plus speed/athletism. Power maybe better then advertised.

I know many will want to see Szczur as the 1 or 2 on this list but I have slight reservations. I really Szczur and I know many were super high on his work at Perioa. The thing is as a 22 year old college product with a few months of pro expierence coming into to 2011 I expected nothing less then dominating. Some on this site have tried to compare his 2011 season with Mike Trout's. It's not the same. Trout was 18 years old fresh out of H.S. and dominated. Age matters. Again I like Matty but after his promotion to high A the AVG went down as did the BB and the K's went up. Power seems to be emerging but with everyhting I just said it's a small smaple size. I will be really watching what he does next yhear against adavanced pitching and I think 2012 will be the reall telling of the Matt Szczur story.

5. 3B. Josh Vitters - AA - 2013 - Good but not great season. Spent 20/21 over the last 2 years in AA. Very young and could easily have spent the last year and a half in lA/HA and be considered a prosepct. Still has BB issues. Power is coming around. Good hit tool. The ultimate talent is still there but right now profiles more as a solid average regular then an A.S.

6. OF. Jae-Hoon Ha - AA - mid/late 2013 - Tough out who has serious OBP issues which have been exposed against more advanced pitching this year. Has emeraging power but not sure it's better then 15 hr anually to go w/ average speed as well as a good arm but unfourtunatley profiles more as a 'tweener. Not enough range for CF and not enough power for RF. Needs to take a real step forward in power to be considered a above average ML regular. IMO should spend most of 2012 in AA focusing on drawing walks.

7. IF. D.J. LeMahieu - AAA - Early 2012 - Great swing that puts good wood on the ball consistently. Lack of power holds his upside down. At best could profile as offensive minded 2B but has footwork issues defensively. Doubled his Hr output this year but still just 4 hr. Right now I don;t see much difference between him and Darwin Barney at this point. Little better hit tool from D.J. better D/speed from Barney. LeMahieu has better power potential but right now it's just that....potential.

8. RF. Reggie Golden - 19 - SSA - 2016 - Actually a pretty solid season. Walk rate was better then I expected. Low BA and has K'd @ a 29.6% rate. Will need to work on this. Has big time power potential and great arm. Speed is above average presently but should slow down some as he matures. Has A.S. potential but is far from that right now. The quintessential boom or bust prospect. The pitcher friendly MWL will challenge him next year.

9. RHP. Dillon Maples - 18 - Top 50 talent got $2.5 million to sign as a 14th rounder. FB sits 91-94 and can touch mid 90s. FB command is lacking. CB is above average and spots it well. Falshes CU but has not used it much in games for obvious reasons. Athletic but mechanics need ironing out.

10. 3B.  Jeimer Candelario - 17 - DSL - Profiled him in March and said to watch. Very agressive ranking considering he is not even stateside yet but his numbers in the DSL are backed up by his scouting report. Switch hitting 3B has a good arm but needs work at the hot corner considering 10 E in 58 games. Plenty of time to work on that. Has the ability to hit for both AVG and power. Good bat speed and advanced feel at the plate. Sporting a gaudy  50/42 BB/K. PD won't be this good stateside but very promising.

11. SS/2B. Logan Watkins - 21- hA - early 2014 - Really like this kid. Very versitile, draws walks, and has plus speed. Flashed a little better power this. Has played all voer the diamond over the last 2 years (no 1B or C). Has a Marco Scutero feel to me. I know Scutaro is not a flashy name but he's been a very valuable player for some of his teams.

12. RHP. Ben Wells - 19 - AZL- 2016- Groundball machine. FB (89-93) w/ sink is solid and a promising CB. Still needs to spin it more consistent. CU is rudimentary. Reminds me of Zach Britton (BAL). More advanced then Britton at the same age.

13. RHP. Aaron Kurcz - 20 - hA - late 2014 - Potential for 3 above average pitches. Starts w/ a 90-93 FB, deceptive CB from a 3/4 arm slot. Also has flashed a plus CU.  Began career as a reliever but may stick as a SP. At the least he could be a power bullpen arm. Get lot's of SO and stuff plays up out of the pen.

14. Dae-Eun Rhee - 22 - hA - early 2014 - Finally seems to be back from TJS. Stuff is back, FB velo back to 91-94 and maybe more importantly CU, once considered the best in the system is close to form. K/9 has surged lately and command is solid at this point. My 2011 sleeper.

15. IF. Marco Hernandez - 18 - AZL - Athletic Mi who runs well and controls the strike zone well. Versitile and has teamed with Gioskar Amaya to form a very promising MI combo. Offers excellent bat speed and potential to add some power.

16. LHP. Austin Kirk - 21 - lA - FB sits in the 88-91 range. I've heard some say higher but still have yet to see any real eveidence of this. FB does explode in on hitters. 21 and in low A leave me a bit skeptical but hs some upside. I don't know what it is about him but I think better is to come thus the high rating even though the numbers have been falling all year. I liek Kirk right now but may not be much different then Chris Rusin when all is said and done.

17. UTL. Ryan Flaherty - 25 - AA/AAA - Sept 2011/mid 2012 - Still not a fan. 25 and still has not proved to hit advanced pitching. IMO best case senario is a UTL guy w/ some pop. Still very skeptical though that he's a ML. I know this opinion won't be popular w/ the guys on the BCB.

18. 3B. Dustin Gieger- I love this kid. Emerging power and solid defensive skills. I really like Gieger's upside.

19. 1B. Dan Vogelbach 18 - Boise (2012) - 2016 - Plus power and good hit tool. Has a decent eye for a H.S. kid. Really surprised it took $1.6million to sign. Has been compared to Prince Fielder on this site. Here is my take on those comps:

2 huge differences here. To start Fielder is not some fat kid. The guy is a vegan who eat's right. Prince is not out eating cheeseburgers affer games. This is not John Kruk! Fielder is far more athletic then what you think. Ok, let's even take that out Fielder who was the #8 pick, had an elite hit tool. K, no that uncommon. But his eye was elite for a H.S. kid. His power was elite, and I mean his present power.  Vogelbach was a good pick but he is in no way in Prince's class at the same stage.

20.  IF. Goskar Amaya - 18 - AZL - Adavanced baseball instincts, makes good contact, and controls the strike zone well. This is a guy getting a lot of helium who I profiled before the seaosn started. Runs well and has some loft to his swing. I know soome are higher on Hernandez right now, and rightfully so, I think Amaya's feel for the game may give him the edge.Versitile player who has played SS/2B/3B. He and Hernandez have been splitting MI work. I really like these 2 working together.

21. 2B/OF. Zeke DeVoss - SS-A - early 2014 - Has domintaed low minors thus far and should be coming from a top tier college program. Plus speed and great eye. No present power. If he sticks @ 2B could be a really nice offensive minded top of the order guy.

22. CF. Jeffrey Baez - 17 - DSL - Athletic with a projectable body. Plus-plus current speed and good arm to play CF. May slow down soome but has power potential. I like him.

23. RHP. Dallas Beeler - 22 - hA/AA - early 2013 - Low 90's FB that can touch 95. Solid CB but needs to work on CU. Command/Control is good but has been very hittable in AA. I think he will profile better as a 7th inning guy where his stuff will play up a tick and his control/command would also help his stuff play up. Will still be giving a chance to start but i htink the bullpen is where he fits best.

24. LHP. Jeff Beliveau - 24 - hA/AA - Mid 2012 - 88-91 Fb with plus life and a hard downer CB that generates swing and misses. Control/Command has improved. Looks like a good late inning option or worst case senario is a LOOGY.

25. RHP. Tony Zych - 22 - late 2011/early2012 - Profiles more as a set up man. Good FB sitting 94-97 and can touch 99 but can get flat. Inconsistent mid 80s SL.

26. RHP. Chris Carpenter - 25 - AA/AAA/ML - 2012 - Former starter moved to relief has a power arm bring plus FB that sits mid to upper 90's and a solid SL. Control/command is currently below average and will need to work on this to claim a late inning spot for 2012.

27. OF. Rubi Silva - 22 - lA/hA - Not impressed with this 1 million dollar investment. Has plus speed but not really much else as this point considering his profile. 3 % walk ratio  and 19 % k ratio are not what you would like to see from a 22 year old CF/leadoff in low A. Now I will concede this is 1st go around in pro ball but his Cuban stats back up these conclusions thus far. I rank him this high purely on the upside that is there but is so raw for a 22 year old in the low minors.

28. 2B. Matt Cerda - 21 - hA - mid to late 2013 - OBP machine has been playing 3B but profiles better as a 2B because of lack of pop. Some we rate him higher but his lack of power I think limits his ultimate value to a ML team. Love the PD though.

29. RHP. Jin-Young Kim - 19 - SSA/AZL - Got a big signing bonus but was roughed up in intructs and @ Boise but has posted better numbers once demoted to AZL. Stuff isn;t elite right now w/ 87-90 mph w/ some sink, and CB/SL/CU that are currently below average. Command was said to be his calling card. Not sure what to make of Kim right now. I may have him overrated at 29 right now.

30. RHP. Rafeal Dolis - 23 - AA - Late 2012 - Power arm out of the pen. Mid 90's FB with great sink but inconsistent SL. K/9 is down this year and walk rate is to high. I like him but needs to better control/command.

31. OF. Abner Abreu - hA - late 2013/early 2014 - Love this kid. Lean and athletic. PD needs a lot of work but power speed combo is exciting. Quick hands and looks a lot like Soriano at the same age. Let's not forget how good Soriano was over the 1st 8 years of his career. Lot's of upside but needs refining.

32. OF. Trey Martin - 13th rounder who got roughly $1 million less to sign then Dunston Jr. I do like Martin more at this point. Fellow CF with good speed and better idea of what he's trying to do at the plate. Could fill out and show more power.

33. RHP. Yao-Lin Wang - 20 - SSA - Low 90's FB with some sink. Sometimes flatens out though. Solid CB. Got 600k to sign and has put up good numbers this year. A player to watch for next year.

34. IF. Junior Lake - 21 - ha/AA - late 2013 (if ever) - Lake is an enigma. Has enough pure talent to rate easily in the top 10 and has shown some production the last 2 years but has some serious flaws. To start has the best arm strength in the Cubs system including pitchers. Has the size and strength to be a force on offense Power potential is there. Has to many holes in his swing as well as serious PD issues. Actually regressed in his 2nd go around in high A as far as bb% goes. Power has contined to grow this year. Will not play SS regularly in the ML but could easily profile as a 3B. Could also play 2B or LF. I don't think he profiles as a UTL player because he either claims an everyday spot or just can't play in the ML. His speed is better under way and rates as average and his base running skills play up. Will not steal 30 bases in the ML. Some will see him as higher rated prospect and I can see this but right now to many issues that more advanced pitching can expose.

35. OF. Garrett Schlect - 18 - AZL - Lefty who makes good contact and hasgood bat speed. I lik him and htink he's an under the radar guy.

36. LHP. Chris Rusin - 24 - AAA - Mid 2012 - Fringy FB sitting 88-90 but a great CB and solid CU. Good BB/9 and K/9 numbers split between AA/AAA. Could be a #4/5 SP but for my money he profiles more as a middle reliever/LOOGY. I know this won't be a popular analysis on this site but that's my take.

37. 1B/3B. Willson Contreras - 19 - SSA - Defense needs a ton of work. Does profile as an offensive minded 3B. Having a solid 1st season stateside. Current power is lacking but does have show some potential to fill oout and add power. Has been pretty hot after a slow start.

38 OF. Dong-Yub Kim - 21- AZL - Huge upside finally healthy but extremely raw. Has above average power/speed. Will need to work on PD as evident by 4/35 BB/K ratio. Has missed the last 2 years so pretty rusty.

39. RHP. Starlin Peralta - 20 - AZL - Promising arm who struggled in the MWL. Can touch 94 but secondary/control/command are lacking at this point. Love the build and may add velo but needs to refine his overall game. Still has some serious upside if..................................................

40. OF. Shawn Dunston Jr. - LH CF prospect w/ obvious ties to the Cubs. Maybe a bit overhyped imo. Very raw and long term power is questionable. Does have above average speed.

Let me touch on 3 player swho I'm sure will be asked about:

1st: 1B. Justin Bour. I know many will wonder why he didn't even make my H.M. but a 23 year old 1B in A ball who can't hit lefties screams non-prospect to me. I know he's had a good season but age matters as well as a player who is a 1B only who can;t hit lefties.

2nd: RHP. Nick Struck who did make my H.M. and brings good mid 90's heat but his secondary pitches are below average currently. Could be a decent bullpen arm if he can find a solid 2nd pitch.

3rd. RHP. Robert Whiteneck was putting together an eye opening seaosn until TJS surgery derailed it. Probably a year from pitching again and maybe 18-24 months before stuff/feel comes back. He was rising up my board but I want to see how he comes back.

Honarable Mention - LHP, Hunter Ackerman, LHP. Jeffry Antigua, OF. Micheal Burgess, C. Yaniel Cabezres, RHP. Alberto Cabrera C. Wellington Castillo, LHP Willington Cruz, 2B. Wes Darvill, LHP. Cameron Greathouse, RHP. Luis Lira, IF. Danny Lockhart, OF. Kyung-Min Na, IF. Carlos Penalver, RHP. Addison Reed, C. Neftali Rosario,  SS. Francisco Sanchez, RHP. Alexander Santana, RHP. Larry Saurez, RHP. Taylor Scott, SS. Blair Springfield.

Going Forward: I would love to see us sign a guy like Price Fielder but what does he change about this team? Not much imo. A few more wins maybe 10 but still leaves us far out of contention. Unless the Ricketts are willing to go all Yankee and sign Fielder, Cano, an OF, and 1-2 SP (at least 1 ace quality) we really don't need to make any major signings for 2012. What we need to do is continue to invest in IFA's and the draft to build a farm system like the Rays. Once we start to graduate players and build a strong system we have the ability/resources to spend with the Yankees/Red Sox to retain these young players and sign a CC and/or Mark Texiera to put us over the top. This will only happen once we build a good base.

I've put a lot of work into this piece and have been working on it for over a month. Not non-stop but pieceing things together. Don't get to hung up on exact rankings as the top 4 guys could all be made a case for any spot 1-4. 5-10 could all be moved around. This is a rough ranking of everyone. Please also feel free to profile anyone I missed or add comments about scouting reports. Please name anyone I have missed as I'm sure I missed someone.

Hopefully this will be a fun read and give you some hope for the Cubs organization going forward. BTW I didn't have time to re-read and fix the spelling and gramatical mistakes so please be kind when reading. Hope this stimulates some good discusions and feel free to ask my opinions on anyone I didn't hit on.

Dan