Josh Vitters; Will he figure things out?

This a piece written on SBNation Blog 'Minor League Ball.' Thought it might be interesting to post here and get peoples thoughts on it.

If someone else posted it or if posting it breaks a rule or something then pretend this isnt here and move along...LOOK...A DISTRACTION!

9 months ago sXe hXc AMF 15 comments 0 recs |

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Can he turn it around with the bat?

I think the answer is yes and no. I still think there’s an excellent chance that he can produce enough offensively to be a starting quality player in the big leagues… IF he can stick at 3B. If he can’t stick at 3rd and has to move to 1st, he more or less becomes a non-prospect in my book. And there’s just about no chance of him becoming the superstar that everybody once thought he would be. I think the best-case scenario would be something like .270/.320/.470 with slightly below average defense at 3rd.

Pat Riley is the devil.

by Poloplaya14 on Aug 26, 2011 2:46 AM CDT reply actions

I'd agree with this...

Maybe a .280-.290 average but similar OBP and SLG. I think this kid will struggle to top an .800 OPS unless he suddenly improves his average substantially. And I don’t see him developing the plate discipline or enough raw power to make himself an impact hitter.

If he can make it at 3B, he could be an adequate (but not exciting) regular. If he moves from 3B to 1B or LF, I think he ceases to be interesting at all.

He’s still young, so maybe something crazy happens and he develops a ton of power (I don’t hold out much hope for plate discipline). But I just don’t see it.

by SouthernCub on Aug 26, 2011 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Anyone who doesn't walk is going to have an issue going over .800.

Because your BA will have to be at or near .300 and the SLG will have to toy with .500. Particularly with the slugging, that’s tough… there’s only 16 guys in the big leagues this year with a SLG % that high.

It certainly appears Vitters won’t fulfill all of his potential. And many people will surely look back at his draft and say “what if?”. But he was a fairly consensus pick at that point. Sometimes it just doesn’t work out.

As you noted, he can still be a successful big leaguer, even if ASGs are never in his future.

What I’ve noted for a while was in the last bit of the article:

Then again, Vitters is only 21 years old, and maybe the power and patience will come as he matures as a hitter.

So he hasn’t rocketed through the system. Oh well. Even if he takes another two years in the minors… he could still develop into a starting quality 3B at 23. That’s not bad.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Aug 26, 2011 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions

Agreed. Though the key will be if he can be a 3B

There’s nothing wrong with a 1st round pick “only” developing into a starting quality player. And that’s a definite possibility for Vitters. I just think that there are some here who are too optimistic (e.g., saying we need to move/trade Ramirez to clear space for Vitters).

If Vitters can stay at 3B, he can potentially be an acceptable MLB starter (assuming we can get big bats in the OF and 1B to offset him). But there seems to be some real concern with his defense. If he can’t hack it as a 3B, I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a starting quality player.

by SouthernCub on Aug 26, 2011 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions

Problem is that I've often read that, by the time you reach the pros...

…certain things become ingrained and one of them is that if you’re a free swinger, you’re more than likely to remain a free swinger.

There just seem to be WAY too many negatives attached to Vitters to make me think he has any real shot to make it in the majors. I wouldn’t be surprised if he never makes it above AAA (if he even gets THAT far).

by bluekoolaide on Aug 26, 2011 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions

He'll get to AAA, no question about that.

He’s not lighting up AA, but he’s not exactly slumming it there either.

by bdlugz on Aug 26, 2011 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Oh I don't think he's going to change his stripes much at this point...

he’s going to be a free swinger. The question is whether (a) he can develop enough power and hit enough to make it, and (b) whether he can play enough defense to stay at 3B.

I don’t think there’s any question he’ll get to AAA (he’ll most probably be there to start next season). I’m guessing that, from there, he’ll get a Sept call-up in 2012 or 2013. Whether or not he ever sticks on a big league club is very much in doubt, I agree.

I was merely talking about what I see as the upper bound of reasonable possibility – not what I expect to happen.

by SouthernCub on Aug 27, 2011 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions

Medium quality starter (sub-.800 OPS at 3B with mediocre defense) is pretty disappointing for the 3rd overall pick, thoug

That first round is laced with guys who have already made the All-Star Game and who are regulars for their teams. Maybe the lesson is not to draft HS guys with picks that high – too much chance of busting out.

by ClarkFan on Aug 26, 2011 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree it's disappointing

But you should never expect draft picks to become stars (even in nice draft classes). It’s basically a little better than a coin flip’s chance a 1st rounder even sticks in the majors – let alone becomes an impact player.

by SouthernCub on Aug 27, 2011 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions

maybe just wishful thinking

but i’ve been wondering lately if vitters basic skillset…excellent plate coverage, above average contact rate, poor plate discipline…is one that will actually improve as the quality of pitching he faces improves. that coupled with improvement/maturity at the plate could actually mean that vitters becomes one of those rare hitters who is actually better in the majors than he was in the minors.

by circuitclout on Aug 27, 2011 8:17 AM CDT reply actions

Possible.

One thing said about Cubs hitters this year is because they swing at pretty much anything, they tend to do better against pitchers who throw strikes. Look at how they’ve done vs. Roy Halladay, for example.

It’s a thought, anyway.

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by Al Yellon on Aug 27, 2011 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions

I think the more likely outcome

is that better pitchers will figure out they can get him to make bad contact. Lesser quality pitchers are trying harder to throw strikes, resulting in better pitches to hit. Good pitchers have better command/confidence and can work close-to-but-just-out-of the zone and get him to make weaker contact.

Your scenario is always a possibility I guess, but I think the other scenario is more likely.

by SouthernCub on Aug 27, 2011 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions