Cubs Minor League Wrap: August 3
by Josh Timmers on Aug 3, 2011 11:00 PM CDT
in Minor Leagues
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PrintLadies and Gentlemen, it is my pleasure to bring you the Everyone Wins edition of the Minor League Wrap. Those are rare when all six teams are playing. It's even rarer when all seven teams win, including those North Side Slackers.
Congratulations to Peoria Chiefs pitcher Eric Jokisch, whom you all voted as the BCB Minor League Pitcher of the Month for July.
Iowa Cubs
The Iowa Cubs weren't scared of the Fresno Grizzlies (Giants), 9-4.
Chris Rusin took the mound for the first five innings for the I-Cubs tonight. He allowed two runs on eight hits. Rusin walked one and struck out four.
Alberto Cabrera relieved Rusin and got the win. He pitched two innings and allowed one run on four hits. Cabrera walked one and struck out five.
Second baseman Scott Moore was 2 for 5 with two doubles and five RBI. He scored once.
Right fielder Brad Snyder also hit two doubles in a 3 for 5 game. He had three RBI. Shortstop Marwin Gonzalez was 2 for 4 with a double and a walk. He scored twice.
Center fielder Brett Jackson was 2 for 3 with two walks. Jackson scored twice.
Tennessee Smokies
The Tennessee Smokies smote the Birmingham Barons (White Sox), 5-4.
Starting pitcher Austin Bibens-Dirkx pitched five innings and allowed three runs on eight hits. He walked three and struck out two.
Rafael Dolis picked up the win with two innings of relief. He did not allow a hit or a walk, although he did hit one batter. Dolis struck out one
Center fielder Jae-Hoon Ha was 2 for 3 with a double and two RBI. He was also hit by a pitch and scored once. Right fielder James Adduci went 2 for 3 with a triple and a walk. He scored once.
Catcher Blake Lalli was 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI. He also stole his first base since 2007.
Shortstop Junior Lake was 2 for 4 and scored a run. He also stole second base as part of a double-steal where left fielder Ty Wright stole home.
Daytona Cubs
The Daytona Cubs tamed the Lakeland Flying Tigers, 4-3.
Jeffry Antigua got the start and threw the textbook quality start. He allowed three runs on six hits over six innings. Antigua walked one and struck out six.
Frank Batista pitched a scoreless top of the ninth inning to get the win. He allowed two two-out singles, but got out of the inning with no damage with a ground out. He struck out one.
Right fielder Michael Burgess cracked his 15th home run of the year with a man on in the sixth inning. Burgess was 1 for 4 with a walk.
Center fielder Matt Szczur went 2 for 5 with a stolen base. He scored once.
Left fielder Abner Abreu had a 2 for 4 night.
Peoria Chiefs
The Peoria Chiefs stole the honey from the Burlington Bees (Athletics), 5-2.
Frank Del Valle got his first professional win in America with five strong innings, allowing but one run on two hits. He walked two and struck out three.
Luis Liria got a four-inning save tonight, his first in the States. Liria allowed one run on five hits. He struck out two and did not walk anyone.
First baseman Richard Jones blasted home run number nineteen in the seventh inning with the bases empty. Jones was 2 for 4 with two RBI.
Right fielder Anthony Giansanti went 2 for 4.
Boise Hawks
The Boise Hawks cooled off the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes (Giants), 3-2.
Starting pitcher Ben Wells got the win. He pitched five innings and gave up only one run on five hits. He neither walked nor struck anyone out.
Kyler Burke pitched the next 3.1 innings, and he was very good before he tired in the ninth inning. Burke allowed three hits and one unearned run. Two of the hits were the last two batters he faced and the unearned run scored after he exited. Burke did not walk anyone and struck out five.
Bryce Shafer collected his eight save after pitching the final two-thirds of an inning. Shafer allowed one hit. He did not walk anyone and struck out one.
First baseman (and BCB folk hero) Paul Hoilman hit his eleventh home run of the season tonight in the first inning with a man on. Hoilman was 1 for 2 with two walks and a strikeout. Three-true outcomes indeed.
Catcher Rafael Lopez went 2 for 3 with a walk. He scored once and batted one in.
Left fielder Pin-Chieh Chen went 1 for 2 with two walks and two steals. He scored once.
Center fielder Oliver Zapata was 1 for 2 with a walk in his Boise debut.
AZL Cubs
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Can't wait for Jackson to come up
and rattle off 2 for 3 with 2 BB nights in Chicago! Szczur also picking up steam in Daytona. I wonder if he gets a few weeks in Tennessee to finish the season?
Probably not
Both Tennessee and Daytona are in the post-season. If just the Smokies were playing I’d say it would be possible, but the Cubs will want to put a good Daytona team on the field for the post-season.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 3, 2011 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions
That is, though, the good news about Iowa having a bad year.
Jackson could be in Chicago in early September.
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Jackson is absolutely raking right now
in his last 10 games, he’s gotten on base in every single game (multiple times in 8 of the 10 games). He’s stat line during that stretch is .382/.488/.765 (1.253 OPS) with 4 HR, 1 2B, and 2 SB. The K rate is still way too high, but I don’t think that’s going to go away for him (and at least he’s walked as much as he Ked in this stretch).
If he’s not called up by the very early part of September, that’ll be a disappointment. If end up moving Byrd this month, he could be up sooner.
Jackson's overall line at Iowa
… is now .268/.384/.521. You’re right, 27 K in 87 PA is still too many, but he also has 14 walks to go along with that and nine XBH in 71 AB.
He needs to be recalled right after Iowa’s season is over.
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At least Jackson's super high K rate
which, yeah, seems like it won’t ever go away, is tied to his decision to see a lot of pitches, rather than to hack away wildly.
I can’t wait to see him in action in the bigs.
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There are players who have been successful in the major leagues...
… who both walk and strike out a lot.
Jim Thome is the best example. Note, I am not suggesting that Jackson could become as good as Thome.
Have a look at this career for a guy I think could be a good comp for Jackson. We’d take a career like that one, I think.
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I don't think anyone is arguing that it's impossible to succeed with a high K rate
it just makes life a lot more challenging. So far, it hasn’t been a problem for Jackson (in part because he has fantastic patience). But it’s an issue to be wary of as he arrives in Chicago (which should happen no later than early September).
Also, I don't buy the Finley comp for Jackson
Jackson walks and strikes out a lot more often than Finley ever did. Finley had a solid BB rate but also a fairly low K rate.
Jackson is also bigger and slower than Finley was in his 20s. Finley was a speed guy who eventually developed some power in his 30s.
I think Jackson’s profile is more similar to Jim Edmonds, but with more speed and probably a higher K rate. I am not expecting Edmonds-like production, but I think that profile is more reflective of Jackson’s skill set.
Edmonds is a good example
of a guy who succeeded with a mix of high BB% and high SO%. If Jackson can keep an OBP north of .350, I won’t complain about the Ks.
Agreed...
Although it’s interesting to note that this description has, until fairly recently, described Carlos Pena.
I might push the OBP requirement into the .360-.370 range depending upon how much power, speed, and defense he can provide. But that’s just talking on the margins here.
Jackson has a career .394 OBA in the minor leagues.
If he could put up a .375 OBA at the major league level, that’d be great.
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Like I mentioned before, a lot of the MLEs I see for Jackson put him in the
.275/.375/.450 range. We’d all love a CFer who can put up an 800+ OPS and get on base like that while playing solid defense.
Of course that’s his ceiling, if things go right. It looks like he clicked in AAA and is showing us what he can do.
I don't know that .275/.375/.450 is his ceiling...
If that’s what the MLEs suggest, then that would be his expectation, right?
I’d say his ceiling is Edmonds with speed. But I’d say there’s a pretty low probability he reaches that ceiling.
Exactly
I don’t know how you could definitively state that this is his ceiling. He could develop into a .290/.395/.470 hitter.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
Or he could develop more power...
I think .290 may be on the optimistic side given his K rate. It’s possible, but I think he could possibly develop beyond a .180 ISO player if all went well.
He could also turn into Carlos Pena minus the big power, so you never know. But I agree that .275/.375/.450 seems low for a ceiling on Jackson.
I'd say it seems more like his
likely line. Not a ceiling. That’s the type of player I envision him become—not hope that he becomes—if that makes sense.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
Eesh....sorry, I'm at work
I envision him as—not hope that he becomes.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
You're right, very poor choice of words by me...
I meant to say, if he continues on his path with no noticeable regressions or improvements, a line of .275/.375/.450 is about what we should expect.
Been a long day.
What's a realistic ETA for Szczur and Ha?
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
For Szczur? Sept 2012 or 2013
For Ha? A year behind Szczur (if he makes it). Ha had a very solid year (at 19) at Peoria last year, but his numbers this year are pretty underwhelming (.274/.312/.421 split between A+ and AA, with similar stat lines at each level). He could probably stand to spend another year developing in AA and then some time in AAA before sniffing the majors.
I don’t have huge expectations for Ha making it at the moment, but he’s still really young. Szczur is a lot more exciting to me as a prospect.
Slight edit...
maybe not a year behind Szczur (since he’s at Tennessee while Szczur is at Daytona). But I’d fully expect Szczur to make it to the bigs before Ha. Maybe Ha has a big improvement this offseason and puts himself in position for a call-up in Sept 2012. But I’d guess he’s 2013 (or later) if he makes it.
Given that Szczur is a year and a half older and has a 40-man requirement, I see him getting pushed past Ha next year.
Szczar in left Ha in center, and Jackson in right
to start 2013!!!!
Move everyone one spot to their left.
Szczur in CF (fastest).
Ha in RF (best arm).
Jackson in LF (no slouch, by any means).
There’s a real good chance that group would be in the discussion for best Cubs’ defensive OF.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
I'd agree with this...
if all three were going to make it, I’d put Jackson in LF and take advantage of Szczur’s speed and Ha’s arm.
Zapata sounded outclassed in his first at bat.
Sounds like he rebounded, though.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
And Paul Hoilman keeps making me happy
He’s my new Justin Bour (only with considerably more upside).
What's his upside
I know next to nothing about him other than he seems to be a patient masher. He’ll be 23 starting in Peoria next year and is currently striking out at 45% clip against pitchers a couple yrs younger than him. I see him as an organizational 1st baseman following in the footsteps of LeHair, Ridling , Bour and numerous other guy’s we’ve had the last 10 yrs. Alot of guys seem to like him on here so there must be something to it. What do guy’s see that has you hopeful.
Oh, I know he's not really a serious prospect
I was enjoying Bour’s nightly lines with either a HR or BB early in the year before he faded. Hoilman is picking up the mantle of unheralded college guy who’s too old for his league but whose box score line is fun to watch. Compared to Bour, Hoilman is much more athletic, with more walks, better power numbers, so there’s more there to like than with Bour. And he looks like Mark McGwire.
The bigger question is....
Does he have the potential to compare to Bryan LaHair?
Hoilman has serious power
Because he was selected in a later round and played at E. Tenn State and we’re loaded with 1B prospects throughout the system, the only real place for him was Boise. What he does have that many of our power hitters don’t have is patience at the plate. His OBA is .411. I’ve seen a number of his games on MiLBtv and he reminds me a bit of Dunn.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
We're not
It’s actually our weakest position.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 4, 2011 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Right...
all of the 1B prospects are just drafted (some of them not technically signed yet). I don’t think anybody is really blocking Hoilman (or the other draftees) at the upper levels at 1B.
You guys haven't been on this site long enough, then
Bryan LaHair is a legit 1B prospect. He has to be, considering the numbers he has put up in AAA.
Who is he going to replace
after he’s signed? LaHair at Iowa, Ridling in Tenn, Rohan and Bour in Daytona or Jones at Peoria?
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
If he has any real potential I'm sure they'll make room for him.
No intreresting names on that list.
I want to comment on this
There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a fan of a minor league player independent of their status as a major league prospect. These guys are professional ballplayers entertaining fans every night across the country. That some of them have a better chance than others of making the majors doesn’t detract from what they’re doing every night in trying to win ballgames. That’s why I mention every guy who has a good night, whether or not they are a high prospect.
If you want to start a Paul Hoilman fan club, go for it.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 4, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
What to do with Ha and Szczur next year?
I’m hoping Szczur can start next season at Tennessee if he finishes well in Daytona. But at the same time, I’m not sure Ha will be ready for AAA at that time, and it appears the Cubs want both to stay in CF. So what do you guys, see happening, Ha getting aggresively moved up to Iowa next season? Zapata/Chen/Easterling will all be looking for CF reps at Peoria/Daytona as well, I guess it’s a good problem to have but are we overloaded with CFers or what?
Ha might be a good trade candidate
I thought Ha profiled more in RF due to his arm? Where there’s a will, there’s a way to get them all playing time I guess.
I thought that too.
But I’ve heard very good things about his defense this year, and having that type of arm in CF could really be fun to see (as long as your RF has a decent arm too). Not to mention his offense is more valuable in CF. And I’d like to keep him for now, I think he could have a breakout year in 2012. But if someone really values him, I guess you gotta pull the trigger.
Ha is only 20 and doing OK in AA
I really hope they keep him and see how he can develop. He doesn’t have Szczur’s speed but could actually end up the better player in other aspects of the game IMHO.
Angel Guzman is the man.
by cubzfan on Aug 4, 2011 7:30 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Right now, Ha's offense isn't valuable at any OF spot.
But he’s young. He’s another member of the “no/low walk” club, so that concerns me. Especially since he’s not a super fast guy either. Hopefully he can hit enough and with enough power to overcome that.
Of those three CF prospects (Jackson, Ha, and Szczur), Ha seems the least exciting (Jackson is way further along than either guy, and Szczur seems to have a nicer speed/power combo).
Szczur starts next year in High A....
and rips it. He gets called up to AA by May, and plays CF/LF while Ha plays RF/CF. Ha probably gets called up to AAA if he does well at AA next year, and that’ll be that.
Easterling might be the only one of those guys who’s at High A to start the year. He’ll play all three OF spots I assume.
Burgess will play LF/RF in AA.
All of these guys are trade bait. Even Easterling could just be given PTBNL status.
Can't trade Easterling
until June
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
PTBNL
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
by TheBeerBaron on Aug 4, 2011 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Szczur needs to start in AA
They have given him over a year to adjust to playing baseball fulltime and he has met every expectation so far. They need to start challenging him with age appropriate competition next season. Ha can play RF and spell Szczur in CF. Szczur is the top guy, you don’t slow his development to accommodate Ha. Especially since Ha profileswell in CF and both Jackson and Szczur appear ahead of him in CF.
by MVZ on Aug 4, 2011 5:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Not just that
But Szczur has to be placed on the 40-man this Winter (because of his weird, two contract thing). So, the Cubs are going to want him advancing.
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This
He has to be on the 40 man by November IIRC.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
by TheBeerBaron on Aug 4, 2011 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Probably..
Szczur/Ha at AA with Szczur getting majority reps in CF
Easterling at A+
Chen/Zapata in A with Zapata getting more CF reps
Dunston/Martin in A-
We can only hope DeVoss can pick it up at 2B
otherwise he throws another wrench in the works.
Not a bad position to be in
Because DeVoss can play multiple positions, I don’t worry about him not getting playing time next year.
by Don't Fear the Reaper on Aug 4, 2011 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Awesome night for Jackson and Ha.
Actually good nights for a few guys of note. Wells was boring. Chen showing off a batting eye and speed. Congrats to Del Valle, and I hope it’s the first of many wins in America. Abreu had a good night. Burgess is chugging along.
Sadly, the great ABD seems to have come down from his early season hype.
Early season hype????
I was a fan of ABD, but only as a “he’s beaten every league he’s been in” type. As soon as that stopped, there was no more room to brag.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Wells was boring, but very effective
Any 18 year old that can induce GBs like he can catches my attention. It also doesn’t hurt that he can ratchet it up to the mid-90’s either.
Nobody has mentioned it yet, but both BJax and Abreu had OF assists last night as well. That’s 2 for Abreu in his short time in the system. Apparently the arm is for real.
Kyler Burke is also interesting.
Are they going tot try him as a starter one day?
He's probably a reliever.
They might spot start him in Boise or Peoria next year, but he sounds more like a power lefty if anything.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Most likely a reliever
But I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in the opening season starting rotation for Peoria next season, or piggybacking with someone. He’s definitely in a starters role with Boise as he usually goes 3+.
Ultimately a reliever
But he will get work as a starter and long reliever the next couple of years because they need to get him as many innings as possible to work on his secondary pitches and make up for some of the lost time he spent as a position player. Even if he does end up with three pitches though, I still think he will be considered only a reliever because by the time they stretched him out enough and got him enough exp to be a viable big league starter candidate, he would be pretty old and only have a short window of opportunity. Better to have him concentrate on locating his mid 90s heat and develop an effective breaking ball to make him a viable lefty specialist as quickly as possible.
by MVZ on Aug 4, 2011 5:48 AM CDT up reply actions
Ultimate dream would be a FB/Slider power lefty reliever
that would be sweet, but he needs to be able to throw both pitches for strikes, I think it useless for him to try to develope a 3rd pitch because odds are way against him to get a 3 pitch arsenal being rated above average to even be considered a MLB starter.
by Don't Fear the Reaper on Aug 4, 2011 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Cabrera
After being rushed thru the system the past two yrs he is now in the bullpen. Don’t really understand how they’ve handled him.
Overly Aggressive
I’m all for being aggressive and challenging prospects, but it seems they never allowed Cabrera to ever experience any amount of sustained success at any level. No problem with using him as a starter until now as it gets guys more experience and forces them to develop their secondary pitches. Hopefully they let him settle in as reliever for the next year or so before they bring him up to Chicago.
by MVZ on Aug 4, 2011 5:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Trey Martin
Two triples for Mesa today. Does anyone have an actual scouting report on him, of all of our draft picks there is little to no information. Glad that were spending some some money on corner infielders and outfielders, because heading into next year we are going to have a glut of catchers, CF’s and middle infielders, which might not be a bad thing.
Saw that
He had a nice game, but I’m with you in that I still haven’t seen one scouting report on him yet. I keep waiting on an AZPhil update about him, but one hasn’t appeared.
After doing some searches online, here is what I found:
“I remember reading something that said Trey was like the Daniel Lockhart of the outfield — good fundamentals, makes consistent contact, doubles power, plays solid defense. A lanky 18-year old, who has yet to start filling out. Above average runner; covers good ground in the outfield. "
“13 – Trey Martin, OF (HS), 18 yrs old, R/R
*He is a lot like Lockhart. In fact, they played in the same league, and both committed to Kennesaw State together. He makes solid contact, is an above average runner, and is an athletic CF.”
The second quote was from this site below, and has a short recap of most/all the Cubs picks:
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2011/06/cubs2011draft_1.php
by Don't Fear the Reaper on Aug 4, 2011 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Thanks
Although that is still a pretty vague report.
Wells is a GB machine.
10 GO in 5 innings. Lots of people with good nights. Jackson, Ha, Szczur, Lake, Wells, the Peoria pitchers, Burke, Cabrera, Lopez, Zapata, Chen, a couple interesting Mesa bats. (Martin, Hernandez)
Ten guys batted for
the Arizona Cubs. Seven are hitting .300 or better. None are hitting under .240. SSS and all, but still, better than forcing guys to the plate hitting .140.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
I prefer our old version of 5'11 1B
with warning track power to left in Fenway.
j/k
Vogelbach and Gretzky in Boise in 2012.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
glad
that I am not qualified to determine who is and isn’t a PROSPECT while some commenting can?
minor league players are trying to develop positive consistency, meaning good everyday versus great every now and then
the age thing is overrated and the maturity aspect is underrated by many
by AlexWray on Aug 4, 2011 6:35 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
I for sure am not qualified to judge prospect status
But if you take someone like Hoilman, who spent four years developing in College and is basically playing against highschool/college freshman pitching, you need to take his numbers with a big grain of salt. Don’t get me wrong, I’m rooting for the guy and I do think there is some upside there based on the walks and slugging, but excitement has to be tempered until he does something at a higher level.
age
does play into your pitching comments, though
A ball, from Boise to Daytona has a mix of picthers college freshman age and up.
Therefore, you will also get a mix of talent and velo ranging from a college Friday starter and the equivalent of a college rookie in the bullpen.
In other words, each pitcher in pro baseball has some talent so grouping them all as one level isn’t the case. The velocity difference between short A and AA doesn’t really exist, just more command and polish, movement and better offspeed.
We've got so many interesting OF prospects right now
It’s a long list…. can’t remember the last time we had that. Gotta think two or three of them will make impacts in the majors.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
When a team drops an interesting draft class
on top of five or six similar recently before, they become interesting.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Rusin
I have to think Rusin will compete for a rotation spot next year. He has by no means been a star, but he has moved rapidly through the system and handled each promotion pretty well. He has shown refreshingly excellent K/BB rates throughout his career, and as a lefty he has an extra dimension to offer over someone like Jackson, who has struggled anyway this season. To be honest, with the overall atrociousness of Iowa pitching, his numbers there look even better than they really are.
What are the chances he gets a start or two in September in Chicago?
by Riggs_Stephenson on Aug 4, 2011 8:52 AM CDT reply actions
I would say slim to none
No need to add him to the 40 man right now. Coleman and possibly Jay Jackson would be first in line. Cashner is supposed to be back in September as well, although he might be in the pen.
In September,
you can start a guy with a pitch count of 40. Pen arms aplenty.
Agree with RR on Rusin.
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
AAA arms
I don’t get the Jay Jackson love….everytime I see his line, it’s awful! Isn’t his ERA over 5?
too bad Whitenack got injured
The love came from two years ago
When Jackson cruised all the way to AAA at 21 and looked really good along the way. He has since had a very mediocre 2010 and a pretty bad 2011.
People still hold out hope that he rebounds. But next year is a big year for him. He’ll be 24 in October and he’d be entering his third year in AAA (unless he’s somehow called up).
He’s young and has interesting stuff, but he’s now had more time with “meh/bad” performance than good performance. It just depends on when you started paying attention to Jackson and how attached you were to his 2008 and 2009 success.
Not sure there really is any love for him
But his stats late last year and most of this year were due to him experiencing severely diminished stuff. Reports are out saying that his stuff is starting to come back, but it still isn’t there. Jackson has to be added to the 40 man this offseason or he could be picked up in the Rule 5 draft. It makes all the sense in the world why he would be brought up before Rusin would be.
Of course, this is the same organization that brough up LeMahieu over Flaherty with absolutely no justification, so anything is possible.
Justification
Lemahieu > Flaherty
by SenorGato on Aug 4, 2011 11:21 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
hm not sure a bout that.
Flaherty=more versatile, more BB, more power
LeMahieu=empty BA, all singles, no walks, no power, basically ryan theriot.
Pretty much
Not to mention that Flaherty has to be on the 40 man at the end of this year, anyway, whereas LeMahieu didn’t need to be added until after next year. That move is still baffling.
I hate to say this
but I think the answer can be found in that LeMahieu was “hot” at the time the move was made.
Also, LeMahieu was set to be promoted to Iowa that day and wasn’t on the bus with the Smokies. In fact, Fleita called him up and said “Change of plans.” It might have been that if Flaherty got promoted, they were going to have to scramble to find a player for the Smokies.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 4, 2011 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Keep in mind that
this is Flahertys best offensive season, and that he did it where Lemahieu is having his best season while being 2 years younger.
Also DJL is better defensively, can play any IF spot in pinch, has hit throughout the minors, is more athletic…
by SenorGato on Aug 4, 2011 11:41 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Flaherty also can play any IF spot in a pinch
as well as all the OF. DJL has hit…a lot of singles. doesnt walk. i woulda taken Flaherty. I was higher on DJL but the more i see, the more i feel avg 2B-to decent utility guy. Flaherty i see DeRosa which is a good piece to have.
Iunno...
DJL still has alot of room to go up as a hitter, much like Flaherty did this year at 24. He’s the better athlete and better pure hitter too, and while Flaherty can handle the IF, DJL is considered the better glove and defensive player.
I think Flaherty projects as a 10-12 man on the roster while Lemahieu has starting potential at 2B with the same 10-12 potential too.
by SenorGato on Aug 4, 2011 12:48 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Potential, definately
But not right now. And probably not next year, either. DJ needs much more seasoning and maturing, IMO. He doesn’t make much sense on the big league club.
i agree DJL is a better defender.
but Flaherty is the more versatile guy. would have been easier to find more at bats for him. also offers more at the plate right now. i think the potential is there for DJL, but right now im not as high on him or as confident as most.
LeMahieu has interesting upside...
but he’s still a good bit away from reaching it. His upside is higher than Flaherty’s (basically, if he develops power he’s far more intriguing). But there’s a real chance that the power never comes.
And in any case, LeMahieu’s call up this season ahead of Flaherty didn’t make sense, because Flaherty is further along in his development and is nearer to the point where he would have to be on the 40-man.
While all true...
It doesn’t necessarily mean Flaherty was ready for a callup. He’s never hit as well as e did in AA while a pro, and hes known to struggle a bit at a new level. Not only that, but mastering AA at 24 isn’t quite as impressive as mastering it at 22 in your second full pro season…plus DJLs current skills are easier to translate as you move up levels (contact, defense).
Then yeah…Lemahieu just plain has more upside.
by SenorGato on Aug 4, 2011 2:39 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think either was ready for a call-up...
But if you’re going to call up somebody from AA at that point, Flaherty made more sense (older, higher OPS, closer to having to be put on the 40-man roster anyway).
You’re arguing a different point than the rest of us. We’re debating who has more upside. We’re debating who was the appropriate call-up this year.
by SouthernCub on Aug 4, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
ugghh, slight edit
“we’re not debating who has more upside”
not “we’re debating who has more upside”
No even then though...
- Flaherty hasn’t adjusted to levels upon a callup as well as LeMahieu has.
- This is known even amongst the fanbase, since I actually stole that from someone here.
- LeMahieu was tearing it up.
- LeMahieu’s skills translate much easier and quicker. Look at Barney and Castro’s early success because they put the bat on the ball with really low K rates.
- The organization is doing more with Flaherty. They’ve tried him everywhere by CF, P, and C. They move him around often, and seem to be developing him to be a true utility player. This is a different kind of development than what they’re looking from LeMahieu, who just needs to get physically stronger to add power to his game. This is the developing of a whole skillset, and that IMO requires a different schedule than what LeMahieu’s on.
LeMahieu has "hit throughout the minors"
for nothing but average. No power. No walks. I just don’t understand your love affair with LeMahieu right now.
by RynoRooter on Aug 4, 2011 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I need to be clear
that I think LeMahieu could develop into much more of a hitter. That is for sure. He could gain muscle and ISO in the 140 range. But right now, he just doesn’t offer much.
At the same time there has to be that commitment.
you don’t get stronger over night. needs to get in the weight room. he’s tall so he can pack on some to the frame and stay athletic. but i think what we have with him and people drooling over him is Al Davis syndrome.
Minus the speed and OBP but plus some singles...
He’s basically a taller Darwin Barney at the plate.
That's selling him a little short seeing as
Barney was what…a .280 hitter in the minors? And he was older doing it….
by SenorGato on Aug 4, 2011 2:42 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
LeMahieu's AAA stats are virtually identical to Barney's AAA stats from 2009...
in terms of power and productivity, LeMahieu is basically Barney right now. LeMahieu had a much higher AVG than Barney in the lower levels, but his age 22/23 season in AAA has been virtually identical to Barney’s age 23 season in AAA.
He has much more upside (as he’s bigger and younger), but this whole discussion has been about where he is right now.
DJLM is also over 3 years younger.
And he’s 6’4 with a frame he can build on. If DJLM is still a tall Barney in 3+ years, I’d be shocked.
I expect a better BA, Better OBP (because of the average, not more walks necessarily), and better SLG with slightly worse defense.
I think he could potentially be a .300/.340/.425 guy at 2B, which isn’t bad at all.
I agree completely...
I was just giving a reference point for where LeMahieu is this season (which was the point of the discussion – in reference to the call-up over Flaherty).
I don’t think anyone would argue that LeMahieu’s offensive expectation is that of Barney. It’s just that this season that’s where he is in terms of his power development at the moment.
It is his age 22 season.
He is doing at 1 year younger in baseball age.
Has LeMahieu even had 100 AAA ABs yet? 200?
LeMahieu is bascially Barney on steroids with the bat, and not as big a drop off defensively
Also, I find a player’s performance in AA to be his most important in the minor leagues, and I don’t mean it because that’s where LeMahieu played his best. Josh has talked about this too IIRC…AAA is usually jammed with old minor league talent, AAAA talent, and then middling minor league talent. AA is where an organization’s most serious prospects are at….
Weirdly enough, all that said, I do think Von Joshua in AAA might make our AAA level a legitimate development level. That would explain why Jackson/LeMahieu/Flaherty are at that level. Even then, I think what they’re learning goes beyond what you’ll see in the box score there, and I’m not too worried about any of the three’s performance at that level yet.
202 AB in AAA
And you shouldn’t be worried about Jackson’s performance at AAA because it’s actually been good unlike LeMahieu or Flaherty.
Also, I wouldn’t call LeMahieu “Barney on steroids.” As I’ve already noted, he’s got the same amount of power as Barney. He’s a better prospect than Barney for sure, but I think “Barney on steroids” is a pretty poor description in this case.
Barney on hitting steroids.
Barney’s career minor league line:
.287/.335/.376/.711
LeMahieu’s:
.319/.353/.398/.751
The skillset is similar sure, but keep in mind that Barney was playing at least a full year older than LeMahieu at each levels.
He’s a better hitter than Barney. They share some characteristics..high baseball IQ, high contact, empty batting averages, college WS pedigree, initial struggles at AAA, strong half seasons at AA, defense, IF versatility….but overall LeMahieu has better hitting numbers.
This place needs an edit feature...
He’s a better hitter than Barney is just out of place.
When the average is .325 across the minors...
It’s something that stands out. It’s not as if this is it…Flaherty didn’t even break out til 24…who’s to say Lemahieu is stuck as what he is right now?
by SenorGato on Aug 4, 2011 2:24 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
No one is saying that...
You’re the one who said LeMahieu is better than Flaherty. And aside from a small sample size in AAA (where neither has been very good), that hasn’t been true yet. Flaherty has outhit LeMahieu at each previous level.
LeMahieu certainly may have a higher ceiling as a prospect than Flaherty due to better defensive skills, better AVG, and youth. But the discussion has been about who should have been called up this year.
The problem with your arguments is that you come across biased in majority of them.
Flaherty is an overall better player right now. LeMahieu just has AVG on his side at this point. Flaherty has BB, HR, RBI, SLG and not to mention his versatility.
'Never look down on anybody unless you're helping him up.'
Flaherty's has got huge splits against LHP vs RHP,
DJ is pretty consistent against Righties and lefties. IMO, that makes DJ more likely to be an every day player and Flaherty to be more likely a platoon player or a DeRo type guy who plays multiple positions.
IMHO, players with huge LHP vs RHP split differences aren’t going to be able to be everyday players.
I always forget that about Flaherty....
Huge splits indeed.
I think my bias in this argument was assumed rather than me...
giving it. Everyone knows I really like LeMahieu as a propsect, therefore my basis for arguing him as a better prospect is based off of that.
I assume Rusin just isn't a guy the scouts like?
His numbers have been consistently very good, although he’s been on the older side. You don’t hear a whole lot about him in the future plans, so I can only assume he must not look, in person, as good as his numbers.
Bleacher Nation - Cubs Rumors and News
No pitcher can be any good
unless he throw consistently mid-90s. #sarcasm
I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.
Yeah, most people write off the 4th and 5th starter types
I think Rusin has a chance to make it as a 5th starter.
I've heard a bit about him
He’s got a major league curveball, which at least gives him a chance to play in the majors. He doesn’t throw hard, as others have noted, but he could end up as a back of the rotation starter. More likely a pen arm.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 4, 2011 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking about him too.
I don’t think he makes the rotation out of ST, with Wells, Cashner, Zambrano, Dempster, and Garza all coming back and I believe their going to be looking real hard for SP in the offseason. Although I guess you never know, if the somehow trade Demp or Z there may be a spot open. But I think Rusin, along with Struck give us ML ready depth at AAA, so hopefully next year we can avoid the type of fill in guys this year. No more Russell, Davis, or Ortiz type replacements makes me feel better.
still a bummer about whitnenack.
i think he would have competed for a rotation spot potentially. also dont forget about McNutt. i think he may get a bit of a look next spring. ultimately id like to see them get one of the top 2 or 3 pitchers on the market, though i dont know who that is ha. only know CJ Wilson but i think he goes back to Tex.
Their aren't many big names
After Wilson and Carpenter (team option), you’re looking at Francis, Jackson, Maholm, Harang, Harden, Oswalt (mutual option), etc.
I’d be a bit surprised to see the Cards let him walk, so aside from Wilson the pickings are slim in the free agent market this year.
I dont see Texas letting Wilson walk. he fills more roles for them, IIRC, than just their top pitcher.
well bummer on that market.
They'll definitely want to resign him I'm sure...
I guess it’s just a question of how much they’re willing to pay and how much he wants to stay, because the market for his services will be even more inflated than usual (given the lack of other options).
I’m sure the Yankees will be looking for another starter and haven’t been afraid to spend big. I can imagine the Red Sox will be as well. That alone will boost the asking price substantially.
Don't forget the Rangers are now a big-money team..
…. after their big TV deal with FSN Southwest. They can compete for anybody.
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Rumor today
is that the Rangers are interested in Yu Darvish. That might affect what they do in the off-season. How? I’m not sure.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 4, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
They've been in on Darvish for awhile
Jon Daniels went over to Japan personally.
With the posting fee
is it likely they re-sign Wilson and sign Darvish? He’s going to command close to what Daisuke signed for, correct?
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
The Rangers have big $ now..
…. after their TV deal with FSN Southwest. They can afford Darvish.
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Remember last year when they were bankrupt?
Good times.
Not forgetting...
just noting that there will be a big market (including all the big boys). I’d still guess he’ll stay with Texas (just that the price will be high).
Very weak post-2011 FA pitching crop
But a potentially insane post-2012 FA pitching crop. That’s when I want the Cubs to make a big pitching FA move.
Agreed...
hopefully (assuming we don’t get Wilson) the front office will think ahead and not overpay a mediocre starter for 2-3 years. If we’re not getting a top-tier guy, I want one-year deals (when possible) on free agents to give space to go after big name guys next year.
Well, if it isn't Jim Hendry calling the shots
hopefully this request is granted.
Just say no to mediocrity!
Plus, after 2012, Z and Dempster are free-agents. Obviously, the team is likely to have them in their rotation next season, but I would expect them to be bigger players in the market following next season. They’ll have two rotation openings and no help on the way in the minors to fill them.
There’s no way in 2013 the Cubs trot out a rotation of….
1. Garza
2. Cashner (this assuming that Cashner actually pitches in and remains in the rotation.)
3. Wells
4. Minor leaguer
5. Minor leaguer
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
Yeah, the 2012 offseason seems like a great time to make a splash in pitching
Getting two big-time arms for 2013 would be fantastic.
Get a guy for a year (or two) to compete with Wells and Cashner for the #4/5 spots and ride it out for one more year with Dempster and Zambrano behind Garza. Then, go for good arms in the 2012 offseason to bump Garza to the #2-3 spot in the rotation and keep Wells/Cashner in the #4-5 spots.
I’d focus the spending this offseason on 1B (i.e., Fielder) and filling in the rest of the roster holes with very short-term deals. If we don’t get Fielder that would change things. But that should be plan A.
I pray that is "Plan A"
It should really be the only plan. They have the money.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
I'd argue McNutt could be ready for a full time gig by as early middle 2012 if things go well for him.
He may be able to be slotted in, but I’d love to replace Zambrano’s and Dempsters salaries with 2 big names coming off the books in 2012.
Yeah, I'd be just fine with McNutt bumping Wells
or potentially Cashner to the pen if Cashner doesn’t pan out as a starter.
I think McNutt should be ready by 2013 (possibly mid-2012 as you say). My hope would be that he and Cashner make for a fantastic #4 and #5 when the Cubs make two big splashes to replace Dempster and Zambrano in November/December 2012.
Dewitt in LF again tonight
Why can’t we let Reed Johnson just play out there? Why this damn infatuation with a lousy utility infielder????
"Go Cubs!"
Wrong thread.
But I don’t get it either.
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Value draft
Is there a way to compare how Tim Wilken drafted during his time here compared to other teams with similar first round picks?
Not yet, really...
Since many/most of Wilken’s (and everyone else’s) drafts are still in the minors.
Wilken has improved the depth in the system for sure. His drafts have seemed short on top-end talent. This year’s draft seems to have taken a different approach (lots of overslot guys), so maybe there’ll be some impact MLBers on the way in 3-5 years.
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