2011's Lead off hitter numbers reveals Castro at his best.

by Ivy Walls on Aug 7, 2011 1:57 PM CDT

Now that Fukudome is gone and the Cubs are 7-3 since his trade I thought looking at the lead off hitter numbers would be interesting to examine. Granted this winning streak is more about hitting for power and better starting pitching than who at te top of the batting order but a discerning eye could see that Fukudome was lead weight at the top of thd order. But how much? If I told you that Fukudome only scored a run in 43% of the games he started where coincidentally the Cubs W/L was also 432% leading off 67 games (64% of the time he was here). OTOH Castro has started as the lead off hitter in 25 games (22% of the games) and has scored a run in 84% of those games. See Table Below

More importantly is Castro's W/L % in the lead off role, 560%

	GS	W/L	W/L %	Runs	% of GS w/runs	Bat’g Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI’s
Castro	25	14-11	.560	23	84%	.382	.418	.530	.948	2	16
Fukudome	67	29-38	.432	29	43%	.268	.370	.366	.736	3	12
Johnson	16	3-13	.187	10	62%	.333	.375	.471	.846	0	3
Baker	4	3-1	.750	4	100%	.455	.455	.682	1.137	1	4
Campana	2	0-2	.000	1	50%	.125	.125	.125	.250	0	0
team TTL	114	49-65	.430	65	.570	.310	..376	.471	.847	6	31

The other player who has recorded a significant number of starts in the lead off role is Reed Johnson. Johnson has a good batting statistics and has scored a run in 62% of the time but the Cubs are only playing at a .187 clip. While Baker who got most of his lead off starts in April have a 3-1 record where he has scored 4 runs in 4 starts.

In my mind there were two things going on. Apparently the Cubs sought to build value in Fukudome with his OBP in the lead off role but a discriminating review exposes his offensive weaknesses...runs scored, runs batted in and overall slugging.

What also jumps off the page is Castro's offensive production in the lead off role, 948 OPS! Compare that to his OPS in the 2nd spot in the order, .808, he has 61 more AB's. In the 3rd spot his production falls off the table with a .573 OPS, again with 59 more AB's than in his lead off role. How much more would have Castro been full time in the lead off role this year only the rest of August and September can tell. But the evidence is plain as day...Castro needs to be in that spot---period. For the sake of continuing his development and for the sake of the team playing competitively.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Ivy Walls you sir are a goddamn genius.

I love your posts.

by Dcr18 on Aug 7, 2011 2:34 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs

copy cat mockery is not complimentary,

nor a recognition of brilliance or insight….

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Aug 7, 2011 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs

rec'd

by Dcr18 on Aug 7, 2011 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Love it.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Aug 7, 2011 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions

I like Castro....

In the leadoff role. I got this feeling the Cubs are wanting him to be an Aramis Ramirez type bat though and maybe even take his spot at 3B.

by cubsluver22 on Aug 7, 2011 3:26 PM CDT reply actions

Castro should be at short for a long time.

If he gains power and loses range, maybe he’ll move off SS in his 30’s, but even then he’s more likely to move to 2B I would think.

by Dcr18 on Aug 7, 2011 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions

It's not about range

with Castro. A lot scouts do not like his hands around the bag at Short.

by mjsher2 on Aug 7, 2011 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

The concern is his footwork and poor throws, which he’s been improving on. I don’t get all the calls for him to move of SS, it’s ridiculous. He’s 21. He continues to improve on cutting down errors, as his fielding % has gone from .950 last year to .965 now. He’s on pace to make less errors this year than last year, and didn’t get called up until May 7 last year. Combine that with his arm strength/range combo being among the best in baseball at SS, and you start to realize all the angst about his defense is way over the top.

by Dcr18 on Aug 7, 2011 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions

the real issue is not his phyiscal baseball tools

Castro needs to develop the mental game necessary to be one of the top players in the game that his physical tools offers him. Offensively one of the best indicators of his physical tools is his ability to hit with 2 strikes where he leads the NL in hits with 2 strikes (58) where his line is .274/.287/.354 (.631-OPS)…his defensive statistics

in 2010 he was in 123 Games while now in 2011it is 112 Games…quite comparable…he chances per game were 4.42 in 2010 and now up to 4.73 so over the next 11 games we should expect 2 more errors at his present rate. If that continues to reduce it will mean he is improving.

More importantly is his baseball intelligence and anticipation development. The thing is Derek Jeter is ranked 11th in the AL with a 3.51 RF, (Castro is 4.66) but 1st in ZR (7.11) and 8th in F% .976. How he compares with John Dewan’s ZR+ I am unsure, but watching Castro he needs more one-on-one coaching where he brings the game to him.

Knowing he can hit effectively with 2 strikes he needs to learn how to work counts better like Sandburg did, anticipating pitches he could drive with less than 2 strikes and then adjusting to protect the plate with 2 strikes, while getting more walks. In the field improving his positioning and fundamentals in the art of catching, fielding and throwing and further knowing when to take a chance and when to hold onto the ball.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Aug 8, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

And my comment about range

was that if he were to fill out and lose range in his 30s he could move positions. Obviously there are no questions about his current range.

by Dcr18 on Aug 7, 2011 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Where did you get that info?

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Aug 8, 2011 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions

won't be playing 3B any time soon

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Aug 8, 2011 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions

Ivy Walls you sir are a goddamn genius.

I love your posts.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Aug 7, 2011 4:11 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs

rec'd

by Dcr18 on Aug 7, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

All this tells me is that the Cubs would be in contention if it wasn't for Reed Johnson!

Off with his head!!!!

by Uncle Stanley McGoober on Aug 7, 2011 5:06 PM CDT reply actions

Oy Vey

I’m guessing the phrase “small sample size” means nothing to you.

I can't count the reasons I should stay
One by one they all just fade away

by HotSludgeSundae on Aug 7, 2011 5:15 PM CDT reply actions

BAKER SHOULD BE LEADING OFF!

by Arbusto on Aug 8, 2011 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions

432% w/l? Why'd we dump him?!

by Arbusto on Aug 8, 2011 8:21 AM CDT reply actions

We are undefeated with Baker huh

Also get a job with ESPN with all of those stats broke down. Great post.

by lshaffer_69 on Aug 8, 2011 11:03 AM CDT reply actions

There is a company in Northbrook

Stats Inc. I am on their list to score MLB games online and may do some football. Although I like football baseball to me is more fun to break down.

Score a football game – takes about 4-5 hours for $75.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry

by Hammer on Aug 8, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm surprised they would use such a blunt instrument to assess games.

Get it? Hammer?

I crack myself up.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Aug 8, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions

With Baker he was the lead off hitter in April,

but then in May it was mostly Fukudome and Castro (against LH starters), then later in May it became RJohnson against LH’ers.

Castro was moved to the 3rd hole sometime in June where he did not respond. The thing is any manager and coaching staff would have noticed this within 10 games…why they kept Fukudome in the leadoff role where outside his OBP his offense simply sucked outside a 7th or 8th hitter.

If you had to play Fukudome I would have had him in the 8th spot, force pitchers to pitch and use his OBP where either you flip the order more or have a man on base with less than 2 outs and the pitcher up—-to bunt him over.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Aug 8, 2011 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs