About The Cubs' General Manager Vacancy
by Al Yellon on Sep 1, 2011 9:01 AM CDT
in Chicago Cubs News
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Ever since the announcement of Jim Hendry's dismissal as Cubs general manager, I had been looking at this day to write about the Cubs' search for a new general manager, largely because today is the Cubs' first off day since then.
At first, I thought I might post a list of candidates -- obvious and not-so-obvious -- and write about their pros and cons. But then, I decided that's pretty much what everyone else has done and is doing. And you all know most of the names, anyway. Why bother repeating work that's being done at every other outlet?
Yesterday, I was thinking about exactly what approach to take when this happened:
The San Francisco Giants have recalled outfielder Pat Burrell from a rehab assignment and have reinstated him from the 15-day disabled list and have purchased the contract of infielder Brett Pill from triple-A Fresno, club Senior Vice President and General Manager Brian Sabean announced today. To make room on the roster, the Giants have designated outfielder Aaron Rowand and infielder Miguel Tejada for assignment.
Two veterans who, between them, are owed about $15 million through the end of next year, were simply jettisoned.
And I thought, "When have the Cubs ever done this? Eaten tons of money just because it was the right thing to do for the team?" And the answer, at least during the nine years of the Jim Hendry regime, is "Never." Oh, sure, they dumped Carlos Silva during spring training this year, eating his contract, but Silva had to pretty much diss the entire coaching staff and make management essentially throw him out in order to do that.
And that's the very first quality a new general manager for the Cubs needs. Follow me past the jump for details and other things I'd like to see Tom Ricketts look for.
The new general manager has to be able and willing to make tough decisions for the good of the team. In the Giants' case yesterday, Brian Sabean -- with approval of ownership, presumably -- decided it was better to give two players a total of $15 million to do nothing rather than have them continue to inhabit the San Francisco clubhouse as the Giants attempt to come back from a six-game deficit in the NL West with less than a month to go in the season. The two proverbial "elephants in the room" for the Cubs are the contracts of Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano. The Zambrano situation may be resolved by an arbitrator soon; the best the Cubs can hope for is that they get a bit of salary relief from the (approximately) $20 million Big Z is owed, and he's made a free agent.
The Soriano situation is more complicated, since he's owed $54 million for the next three years, but consider what my Baseball Nation colleague Grant Brisbee wrote about the Aaron Rowand situation at McCovey Chronicles:Rowand, though? They owe that guy $12 million next year. They'll have to pay him regardless. It's amazing that they'd just cut him. He was a sunk cost, for sure. He wasn't worth a roster spot. But it's hard for an organization to admit that. Maybe, just maybe, he could find what he'd lost next season and be a contributor. I don't believe that. You don't believe that. But the people writing the checks might hold out some hope because, oh man, that's a lot of money.
So instead of $12 million going to the fifth outfielder, the Giants will pay at least $12.5 million for their fifth outfielder. That extra $.5 will go to someone making the minimum, like Darren Ford. Or it could go to someone even more expensive. The Giants will pay more money than they had to for a fifth outfielder because Rowand was so bad. That's something I never expected them to do. It's the right move, but it's a bold one that's easy for me to call for behind a computer screen.
This is essentially the Cubs' situation. They have to pay Soriano regardless; it's a sunk cost. What if they keep Tyler Colvin -- who has improved -- in right field, and the (relatively) inexpensive Marlon Byrd in center, and give Brett Jackson the left field job in 2011 and release Soriano?
They'd be paying $18.5 million for a left fielder in 2011. They are likely to get better production from Jackson than from Soriano, who will be a year older and (presumably) slower. Why not do this? Why not make, as Grant said, the "bold" move that's also the "right" move?
Under Jim Hendry, a move like this would never, ever, ever be made. The new general manager has to be willing to do things like this. Hendry was a players' GM, often looking out for their best interest even when it wasn't the team's.
That has to end.
The new general manager has to be more interested in using advanced metrics to analyze players. In the Sun-Times yesterday, Gordon Wittenmyer wrote that he agrees with this, but he quotes some current GM's as saying that's not the be-all and end-all:
"It’s a delicate balance," San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean, speaking before the Cubs’ 5-2 victory Tuesday, said of the trend to lean more heavily on sabermetrics as a scouting and evaluation tool than on skill sets and personality traits. "There’s certainly a time and place for it, and you have to check off that box.
"Having said that, it’s a people game. Building your club is also about relationships and communication. We all know how to use statistics and all know how to use analysis to make an educated decision and look forward, but should it — or does it — rule the day, in my opinion? I don’t think so. I think most people would admit you need it, but there’s a feel that goes along with it."
Another GM chimed in:
"We use Sabermetrics; we use numbers," Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin said. "But you’ve got to decide which ones you want to use. Sometimes the problem is there’s somebody coming up with a new formula all the time. It’s like in a science lab. Before you even know if the one works, they’re trying to find something else."
It was pretty clear that the use of advanced metrics was a low priority in the Hendry regime. Whoever the new GM is -- whether he's a younger guy with an MBA or someone with a lot more experience, like Sabean or Melvin (and I'm not suggesting that the Cubs hire either of those men, or even that they're available; they probably are not) -- he has got to strike a balance between scouting and statistics.
The new general manager has to end the buddy system of hiring. We saw this kind of thing happening with managers not only under Hendry, but under previous GM's Andy MacPhail and Ed Lynch, too. Jim Riggleman, Don Baylor, Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella all brought along their old pals from -- well, wherever, to join them on their coaching staffs. This is how we wound up with nonentities like Dan Radison, Gene Glynn, Wendell Kim and Matt Sinatro as Cubs coaches. This sort of thing reached its ridiculous peak with the hiring of Mike Quade -- an old pal of both Hendry and assistant GM Randy Bush -- as manager this year, and the hiring of the minor league coaching staff that accompanies him. Kirk Gibson, a manager with about as much major league managing experience as Quade entering this season, is doing far better with the Diamondbacks. Why? Well, part of it is better players and part of it is Gibson's no-nonsense attitude, but another part of it is the fact that Gibson has two former major league managers assisting him as coaches (Baylor and Alan Trammell). Granted, Trammell and Gibson were teammates and friends for years with the Tigers -- but that was a team that won a World Series, and contended for years. Quade's bunch doesn't have near that kind of credibility.
The new GM has to put aside friendships and hire the best people for the job. They can learn to get along together later. I'm still of the mind that Ryne Sandberg is the man that should be hired next year -- and this is not to start that firestorm again, but to make a point -- and IF he is in fact named Cubs manager, the first thing the GM should do is reach out to Jim Riggleman to be Sandberg's bench coach. Riggleman has 12 years' major league managing experience -- and was Sandberg's last manager when he was playing, too. The entire coaching staff needs to be replaced for a fresh start.
This is a chance for Tom Ricketts to put a real stamp on the Cubs as his ownership enters its third season. The Cubs have operated the same way for far too long; it has produced some achingly close playoff misses over the last eight years, but not the World Series title we all want to see. The things mentioned above aren't necessarily the direct causes of those playoff failures, but they have led to a culture in the organization that rewards friendships instead of winning. Baseball is a people business and whoever is hired as GM should not forget that; a GM hired who sits in his office crunching spreadsheets and ignoring relationships is never going to be a winner.
But at the same time, the new GM has to usher in an era of accountability where no one is safe unless they are productive in their jobs. If that means eating $54 million of Soriano's contract so the franchise can move into the future, so be it.
Tom Ricketts has a chance to influence the Cubs in a positive way for decades to come if he makes the right choice for general manager. There are quite a number of good candidates; I'm not even going to name any of them here. As I noted, you all know who they are. According to David Kaplan, Ricketts is doing his due diligence:
While no interviews are taking place yet two other baseball sources told me that Ricketts is reaching out to several people in the baseball world to compile data on all of the candidates and he is gathering varied opinions on the best way to proceed as he rebuilds his club both on the field and off. "Ricketts is talking to as many baseball insiders as he can to make sure that he is as prepared as possible for when he starts conducting interviews. He is asking all of the right questions but while he is hoping to land an established name it is more likely that he will have to hire an unproven candidate or a lesser known sitting general manager if previous GM experience is that important to him," one league source told me.
I'm not a baseball insider, but the above are my opinions, for whatever they're worth. One thing is for certain: whoever is hired, at the very least, must change the team culture in at least the three major areas I've outlined here. If he (or she, as there's at least one woman whose name has been mentioned) can do so, the future of the Cubs can be very bright indeed.
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And both players spent most of their playing careers under Sparky Anderson.
Granted, Trammell and Gibson were teammates and friends for years with the Tigers — but that was a team that won a World Series, and contended for years.
Sparky showed them how to play and conduct themselves like professionals. It matters.
There are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary and there are 108 stitches in a baseball. Who says baseball isn't a religion?
This may sound silly Al
but I’d nominate current Lugnuts’ manager Mike Redmond for a spot on the Cubs’ coaching staff next season, or in the not-to-distant future.
I’ve watched and worked with him all season and his professionalism and demeanor impress the heck out of me. He was just named the Midwest League Manager of the Year in his first season of managing and the team is going to the playoffs for the first time in several years.
He’s excellent and is going to make a great MLB manager someday.
There are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary and there are 108 stitches in a baseball. Who says baseball isn't a religion?
Good pick.
As a career back-up catcher… he’s the kind of guy who could be prime big-league coaching/managing material.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Agreed.
Redmond would be a good choice for bullpen coach — that’s a good starting point for a guy as young as he is (just turned 40).
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Plus, it would allow us to maintain our policy of eventually employing literally every 2003 Marlin.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 1, 2011 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions
When did Pudge play for us?
There are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary and there are 108 stitches in a baseball. Who says baseball isn't a religion?
We'll get to that point eventually.
These things take time. Since 2003, the following ’03 Marlins have drawn a Cub paycheck at one time or another
Derrek Lee
Juan Pierre
Todd Hollandsworth
Chad Fox
Braden Looper
If only all those rumors about Pudge, Castillo, and Lowell would have materialized, we’d be approaching half.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 1, 2011 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, five players over eight seasons.
Somehow that doesn’t seem all that unusual given how players changes teams season to season nowadays.
There are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary and there are 108 stitches in a baseball. Who says baseball isn't a religion?
If you can't beat 'em...
I guess the Cubs figured, if they couldn’t beat them in the 2003 NLCS, maybe they should become them. The Marlins had “it”, whatever it is to win a World Series. They thought “it” would linger like a fishy smell. These were Marlins after all. But alas, “it” does not have a fishy smell.
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Very well...
…written Al, and loaded with common sense!
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 1, 2011 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
RIP Sparky
As a kid in Detroit in the early and mid 80s, I enjoyed Trammell, Sweet Lou Whitaker and Jack Morris, but I loved Sparky more than any player on the team. Respected him because he called ‘em like he see’d ‘em. Today, he’s still my second favorite baseball guy behind The Hawk. Both professionals who respected the game. Intense and still conscious of the RIGHT way to do things.
by JCD on Sep 1, 2011 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions
One quibble
Colvin is not doing better, he’s hitting around .220 in August. The power has been there in bursts, but not consistently. I wouldn’t be opposed to trying him out in ST and hope he crushes it, but he doesn’t have a roster spot on the 2012 team in my view as it stands now
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
.220 is still "better".
Let’s see what he does in September. In any case, I think my point stands — the Cubs may simply have to eat Soriano’s contract. Having him on next year’s team does absolutely nothing to put this franchise forward.
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Sure, I agree there
But I’m not so sure Colvin is the long term answer. Yes, .220 is better than .120, which is what he was hitting before, but I’d rather have Soriano at .260 than Colvin at .220
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I'm hoping with a fresh start that this happens
But based on his performance this year, I wouldn’t give him the LF job
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Soriano has been likened to...
… an albatross around the neck of the cubs. If the Cubs have to eat his contract, usually people eat crow. How does albatross taste?
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions
It's a bird, isn't it?
It’s a bloody sea bird! It’s not any bloody flavor!
Colvin will be better defensively.
He’s also left handed. But most importantly, he has upside. Soriano is only going to continue to decline.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
what about Soriano at .240?
Because that’s where he’s been for two of the past three years. I don’t he’s going to get better, either.
I think there’s a chance that Colvin could wind up with a better AVG, OBP, and SLG than Soriano next year if both players were given regular playing time. That’s not so much an endorsement of Colvin as it is a comment on the age/declining skills of Soriano.
It's more likely that Colvin turns it around than Soriano does
But Soriano is outplaying Colvin in 2011
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Yes, obviously
Almost everyone in baseball is outplaying Colvin this year.
My point was mainly a comment about your statement that you’d take .260 from Soriano over .220 from Colvin. Soriano isn’t all that likely to hit .260 next year.
I don’t think much of Colvin as a prospect. And I certainly wouldn’t cut Soriano to put Colvin in there everyday. But I also wouldn’t be completely shocked to see Colvin outproduce Soriano next year.
Sorry, I think this is bunk, TJ.
Colvin got off to a horrifically bad start — when he was playing. And he’s played a LOT lately and isn’t hitting that much better.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
It was messed up playing time.
He never started more than four straight games before his demotion.
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You've made this point before.
What’s the line? If he had started five games in a row, would he not have been messed up?
Colvin was playing really badly early in the season, Kosuke was playing really well, Byrd’s defense in center is much better than Colvin’s and Soriano was playing well in April, too.
I’m a Colvin fan, and I see his value. But I really think Quade gets unfair criticism on this point.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Sep 1, 2011 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
My criticism of Quade regarding Colvin didn't start unti July/August-ish
when the team was clearly done and Fukudome was gone, yet he kept insisting on going with Reed Johnson for a while. And I’m not even very fired up about Colvin as a prospect anymore.
Aside from that, I agree with you.
That was relatively short lived, though.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
If Colvin can't learn to play with sporadic playing time he'll never have a major league job
He’ll never be good enough to be a starting corner outfielder, given his trouble taking pitches.
If he needs to play every day, then he should be in AAA. In fact, he should just be in AAA.
Agreed
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
With the St. Paul Saints
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
I think we need to ditch Colvin and Soriano
I’m sick of the good ole boy “play em to justify the contract” crap that has went on way too long. Colvin was a 5th round talent that Wilken reached on. Just because he was a terrible pick doesn’t absolve him for having a 260 On Base in Des F’ning Moines.
Lets get to picking guys based on actual MERIT. And not on bogus intangibles.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
He didn't get regular playing time at all at the beginning of the year
Put a lot of pressure on him. Last year it was hey, we didn’t really expect you to make the pros, let’s see what you can do. Very little expectations
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Look at the game logs.
Colvin had pretty regular play in the first three weeks of the season, and he really struggled and THEN saw his playing time fall off. Meanwhile, Soriano and Kosuke had their best months and Byrd’s valuable for his defense in center.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I'm not saying the cubs shouldn't eat soriano's contract
that would be extremely bold. 54 million is a lot more than 12 million, and Roland was a 4-5 outfielder at this point in his career. Soriano isn’t the future of this team, but as it stands is probably “the best outfielder on the team right now”. (I can’t believe I typed those words). It would be nice to see him start platooning in the outfield, with Colvin playing against righties, and sori against Lefties. This way as more prospects come up he can be slowly fazed out as his talent diminishes even more.
Marilyn Monroe "yogi your a pretty cool guy"
Berra " Marilyn you ain't so hot yourself"!
Look I'm in the anti soriano camp as much as anyone
But I still think he’s an asset to this team. He’s tied for the team lead in HR’s, tied for second in RBI’s, and is 4th in doubles. The average sucks, so does the defense. He is not a useless baseball player and I think is worth a high risk high reward prospect. He’s not Aaron Rowand
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I think a lot of the problem is the Cubs don’t have a legion of golden players to replace the players people love to hate. Soriano, Fukudome, Zambrano always performed better than than their critics would concede to give them credit for, but the issue has been they’re only ok to somewhat good players with a value nowhere near their contract value or in Big Z’s case, the issues that come with them. All the players in waiting still need a lot of refinement and don’t have the stats/performance to replace the hated players.
Starlin has promise and some skill, but one can see from his fielding he’s still a kid. A team of young unproven players can achieve greatness, but look at the Rays. It took several years of the Devil Rays building up the farm system/talent and then having the right skipper. Quade is no Maddon, nor was Dusty. Lou, not sure. He had some powerful teams under his belt (90 Reds, 01 Marlins) but dunno if he could do that.
If the Cubs purged every player that people dislike and replaced it with all their young players, their performance isn’t going to suddenly get much better. It’s meh if you do, meh if you don’t.
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions
typo...
01 Mariners, not Marlins. Lou’s Florida ties got my Pinella M-teams confused.
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Colvin needs to be viewed like Ryan Theriot was in 2007-08.
Neither player is that good, but the hope is that they can be good enough at a low price that they’ll balance out other bloated contracts.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
No kidding.
It was pretty clear that the use of advanced metrics was a low priority in the Hendry regime.
I’m half convinced (facetiously, I think) the Cubs didn’t consider any stat that wasn’t listed under a player’s CG during the game broadcast.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Opening Day Cubs LF's since 1995 - just for giggles...
1995 – Scott Bullett
1996 – Luis Gonzalez
1997 – Brant Brown
1998-2000 – Henry Rodriguez
2001 – Rondell White
2002 – Roosevelt Brown
2003-4 – Moises Alou
2005 – Todd Hollandsworth
2006-7 – Matt Murton
2008-11 – Alfonso Soriano
Where is Alou when you need him? Heck, I’d take Derrick May over Soriano right now. OK, maybe not. But I agree it’s time to turn the page on Soriano…
Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in!
Sobering fact.
Roosevelt Brown is only five months older than Soriano.
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So you're saying
he’s available? I’m sold.
Bleacher Nation - Cubs Rumors and News
by Brett Taylor on Sep 1, 2011 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Why wasn't Alou the starter in 2002?
Was he hurt?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I don't specifically recall this...
… but apparently, yes. He didn’t play until the Cubs’ 12th game of the season.
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Pulled Hamstring
Played sporadically that whole year.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
It's even worse when you look at opening day LEFT FIELDERS
over that span.
Chiefs Chat: chiefs.sportsblog.com
Well, it was Sosa until 2005.
Then, Burnitz, Jones, Jones, Kosuke, Bradley, Kosuke, Kosuke?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
And they were all paid handsomely.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
and no outfielders worth a crap have been produced by the vaunted
Cub farm system in decades.
"Go Cubs!"
Joe Carter?
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Out of left field?
That’s quite a block of mediocre or average players. Being left field, you would figure someone crazy good would come out of there every now and then, but alas, the most tempermental players have been on the pitchers mound or elsewhere, not out of left field.
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Not more remarkable than people forgetting about Sosa
If you’re talking about “over a decade” I assume you’re going back to, what, 2000? 1999? 1998? The right fielder in those years (and up through 2004 – just 7 years ago) hit over 60 HRs three times; was an MVP; and had more than 600 career HRs and 1,600 RBI.
I don’t want to get into a debate about whether he should be more appreciated in this city given all of the baggage, but if you want to say our RF situation has been terrible for “over a decade” it’s pretty hard to take that seriously since we had a guy posting HOF numbers for about half of the period in question.
by Orval Overall on Sep 1, 2011 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, even as late as 2004 our OF was definitely above average
Alou (131 OPS+), Patterson (95 OPS+), and Sosa (113 OPS+). In 2003, it was very productive (all three OF with an OPS+ of 110 or better).
Since 2005, the OF has been often mediocre. But prior to that, the OF was usually pretty productive offensively.
Alou's D
That is a list of terrible Left field defense!! Alou may have been worse than Soriano…just going back on my memory…have to check the stat though.
"I feel great, I just wish my team played better"
What game was it where he acted like he couldn't find the ball?
I remember him kicking the ivy like he didn’t know where it was and it was right next to him. It was a nice try to fool the umps, but it didn’t work and either resulted in a triple or inside the park homerun.
Are you talking defensively?
Because, otherwise, that’s a goofy statement. H-Rod was actually a pretty good player for the Cubs, and Moises Alou (after his disappointing 2002) was, too.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I agree on Henry.
No complaints about his tenure.
"The cheaper the hood, the gaudier the talk" - Philip Marlowe
by ForTheLoveOfBiitner on Sep 1, 2011 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions
It would be nice if they got a GM with some balls for a change.
For Hendry to have been there that long and never actually having to fire a manager was weird.
There are tough decisions to be made going forward. Will Ricketts be able to do what a strong GM will want done?
The more I hear about Friedman the more I like him….
Cashman and Epstein would be fine too…..It will be nice to not have the league laughing at the Cubs when its time to make a trade.
How about a GM without balls?
If he (or she, as there’s at least one woman whose name has been mentioned) can do so
That’s an intriguing thought but I wonder whether a female GM could be successful in this exclusive good ’ol boys club. The pressure to succeed would be pretty intense – be held to a higher standard because of her sex, has to prove herself competively on the field and work with her male counterparts across the league, not to mention the intense championship fever and high profile position she will enter. Has to be one special lady!
cashman? what did he ever do except overpay for players?
by roman the Greek2 on Sep 1, 2011 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Your Yankees Hate is showing through....
The Cubs have had one of the highest payrolls in baseball. Just money not spent wisely…..
Cashman wins…..
You're cutting Soriano for the sake of cutting Soriano here
What if they keep Tyler Colvin — who has improved — in right field, and the (relatively) inexpensive Marlon Byrd in center, and give Brett Jackson the left field job in 2011 and release Soriano?
You could just as easily move Byrd to right and have Jackson play center, keeping Soriano. So you’re basically replacing Soriano with Colvin.
Colvin is a much worse player than Soriano – everything Soriano does badly at the plate, Colvin does worse. Soriano’s wOBA is .326, where Colvin’s is .223. Even if you want to play the selective endpoints game and only look at Colvin since he came back – his Auguest wOBA is .297.
I’m all for making tough decisions, but as disappointing as Soriano is, comparing him to Rowand is a massive insult. Over this season and last Rowand has a total of .9 WAR and wOBA’s of .287 and .271. Over that same time, Soriano has put up 4.1 WAR and wOBA’s of .353 and .326.
I’m all for improving the team. But only when there are better options available.
by Wreckard on Sep 1, 2011 9:40 AM CDT reply actions 9 recs
Soriano is NOT a good ballplayer...try to understand that. Its 2005
You could get close to Soriano levels from and average and MUCH lower paid OF next year.
lower pay but not league minimum
There is absolutely no question that Soriano is one of the most overpaid players in MLB. But, it is not likely that the Cubs could replace his performance at the league minimum (without giving up significant talent via trade).
Eamus Ursuli!
Specifics please
I know reading comprehension is not your strong suit, but nowhere in my email did I say that Soriano is a good ballplayer. However, the options that are better are extremely limited.
Soriano’s salary is essentially irrelevant. It’s an inescapable sunk cost. So you have to look at the opportunity cost of upgrading. So who specifically are you going to replace him with, how much will they cost, and how much of an improvement will they be?
I’d ask what free agent outfielders you’ve looked at and decided would be improvements, but that would require a kind of critical thinking that you’ve never never really displayed here.
by Wreckard on Sep 1, 2011 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Email?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Exactly
if we could remove Soriano’s contract, I’d be happy to do so. But that is very unlikely. And unless we find a better option, it doesn’t make sense to pay Soriano AND another player just to produce what Soriano would have produced.
If there’s a league-minimum guy who can give us an .800ish OPS and better defense next year in LF, I’d be okay with it. I just think such a guy might not be available.
Stuck with Soriano
The Cubs seem stuck with Soriano in the absence of skill that can adequately replace him. The fact he he’s the Cubs’ albatross necklace… or cement shoes really agitates people and makes them want to bench him just to stop seeing him, even though it’s only a slightly less irrational move than giving him the absurd contract back in 2007 (?).
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Gotta agree with this Wreckard
It be one thing to eat Soriano’s contract if there was a stream of ready made big league prospects at the upper levels.
Unfortunately anyone with any objectivity realizes its not the case with the Cubs.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
sometimes I wonder why you even bother.
by Orval Overall on Sep 1, 2011 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nobody is drinking kool-aid about Soriano
You seem to have a hard time getting around the fact that Colvin isn’t any good. I’d be fine with a Soriano/Colvin platoon. But, I see no reason to cut a player that delivers above replacement player results, when all we have waiting in the wings is replacement players like Colvin and Campana.
I’m sorry that you got excited by Colvin’s hot spring training and home run barrage in early 2010. His minor league career shows us that what he has produced since then is likely his true talent level.
by JSB on Sep 2, 2011 7:38 AM CDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I tried to say something similar above
You said it much better.
Marilyn Monroe "yogi your a pretty cool guy"
Berra " Marilyn you ain't so hot yourself"!
Well stated and I agree whole heartedly
Soriano will likely get to a point in his contract where it would be better to release him because we have a better option. But 2012 is not the time. His numbers are not worth his salary, but he is still productive. And a platoon may be a good option.
Soriano is not worth $18M
but he’s also not worth nothing. He is tied for the team lead in HR’s and is second on the team in RBI’s. That coming from the 6th/7th spot in the order. He could very well end up with 30 HR and 80 RBI. That’s not bad. A lot of team would love that production from that spot in the order.
If it were a choice between Soriano and Colvin, I think the choice is easy – Soriano by a land slide. I’d be fine with an outfield next year Soriano, Byrd, and Jackson. I would not support releasing Soriano outright.
I do think there’s a chance for an AL team to take a run at him as DH and occasional LFer. Should someone be willing to pay $8M a year, I’d trade him, but I’m not willing to just cut him.
by jerry morales rules on Sep 1, 2011 9:41 AM CDT reply actions
Counterpoints:
Colvin’s left handed.
Colvin is better defensively.
Colvin has upside.
Now … I don’t know if I would just release Soriano outright. While he has declined a great deal from where he was three years ago, he really hasn’t declined much from, say, last year.
In other words, the fact that he’s sort of plateaued in his decline makes me think he might have another year like this one in the tank. But I really fear for 2013-14 if he’s still a Cub.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
If '13 and '14 are so bad
they could release him then. My first choice would be to trade him this offseason, again, assuming that someone else would pay $8M. If he were to primarily DH, I don’t think it’s out of the question that he might stay around 30/80 during that time.
Agreed on the points regarding Colvin. All in all, though, I don’t see the full package of Colvin equaling or surpassing Soriano.
by jerry morales rules on Sep 1, 2011 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd obviously be down with a trade, too.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Trade to whom?
But is there any team a big enough sucker to take Soriano in a trade? The Cubs have historically been the biggest suckers, which is why they couldn’t trade most of their most problematic players. The Mariners are the next biggest suckers and other than the Milton Bradley back and forth (a game of Sorry, but the Cubs’ hunt for a world series win has been a Trivial Pursuit so far) they haven’t accepted that many Cubs players.
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
30 HR and 80 RBI
Not a lot of players can do that.
Again, he’s not worth $19M, but i think you’re looking at it the wrong way. He is worth something and that something is a few million dollars per year. Right now, if the Cubs said that they would pay 75% of the deal, I think you’d have a fair few AL teams willing to add him.
In a lot of cases, i think that people are really not seeing that Soriano does provide value, even though it’s not $19M per year. He is not a horrible baseball player even if his contract is.
by jerry morales rules on Sep 1, 2011 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Good question.
The only idea I have is the White Sox. But we’re probably stuck with him.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I agree that Colvin’s upside/defense should put him slightly ahead of Soriano in terms of starting next year. Colvin’s slash line from 2010 is very similar to Soriano’s from this year. So if we are willing to give Colvin the benefit of the doubt on this year, you are getting players that, at this point of their careers (Soriano on the down, Colvin optimistically on the way up), are very similar.
Colvin’s upside alone might make him the smarter choice as a 2012 starter.
And unlike Rowand its not a 4th outfield spot
One big difference here is that cutting Rowand was opening up the 4th outfielder spot. Advocating a starting outfield of Jackson, Byrd and Colvin is asking for a disaster. Two of the three are unproven. And if they have a start of the year like Colvin had this year you will be in big trouble. Sure, you can go get a scrap heap outfielder but that is unlikely to be much of an imrovement over Soriano. Let Colvin start in right and if you want to bring BJax up, play him in a limited role that gives him the best chance of success. 3 starts a week at first and see how he does. if he is playing well, then you can dump soriano if you still want to.
You can get more with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone. - Al Capone
Left handed doesn't matter to me
And it really shouldn’t to anyone. If anything, it’s a problem because he can’t hit LH pitchers
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Not necessarily accurate...
last year (when he actually was hitting), Colvin had nearly identical splits. This year, he’s not hitting RHP or LHP very well.
.061 vs. lefties
is Adam Dunne territory. his BA on balls in play is way down this year so there may be a little luck involved.
You can get more with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone. - Al Capone
Yes, this year he's been terrible...
last year, he was very solid (over .800 OPS) versus LHP.
My point was merely that it’s not necessarily a certainty that he can’t hit LHP (though this year isn’t a ringing endorsement).
Agreed
I made the point a few weeks ago that I would only hit him against righties for a while until he gets some confidence back and everyone jumped on me like hitting is just somehting you decide to do. He was a wreck when they sent him down the last time. He seems to be more confident now but he has to learn to take some pitches. He will never hit lefties if he swings at ever breaking ball. Right now, if any lefty throws him a fastball anywhere near the plate they should be fined immediately.
You can get more with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone. - Al Capone
Soriano...
…should have some value to an AL team as a DH, I agree.
If I was a GM in need of a DH, I would ponder taking on 3-4 mil of his yearly salary over the next 3 years.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I suppose the Yankees could consider that.
They could afford that; Posada is likely going to retire so they could use a RH hitting DH, and Soriano has been there before and would no longer have to be under the sort of microscope he is here.
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The Bronx also ...
seems to be pretty forgiving of veteran Yankees who had their glory days but just don’t have it anymore. I’m guessing that could extend to Soriano.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I don't think he'd be considered a Veteran Yankee.
He’s a former yankee. Who was tried out and found wanting, after failing just miserably when the lights shone the brightest.
This isn’t Boston hanging onto Tek, or NYY hanging onto Bernie, for the good vibes. Bernie and Paulie were “True Yankees”. Soriano doesn’t get that pass.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Failing just miserably when the lights shined the brightest?
Didn’t Soriano have an amazing postseason in 2001?
Maybe there’s something else that I’m not aware of …
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Not really.
He had a massive 2001 ALCS, a 4-1 rout of Seattle. His whole 2001 postseason was something like a .275 average, based almost entirely on that ALCS.
He had an absolutely miserable ALDS, hitting .222/.263/.222 in a series that went all 5 games v. Oakland.
He was 6 for 25, .240/.240/.360 in the 7-game Series loss. His Game 7 solo shot accounts for essentially all of his offense.
His 2002 ALDS vs. the Angels was hilariously bad. .118/.211/.353. They lost.
His 2003 ALDS was fine (.789 OPS), but his 2003 ALCS vs. Boston – a rather epic, high pressure 7 game series – was a flabbergasting .133/.188/.167. A .354 OPS (!!!) in 32 plate appearances.
In the 2003 Series loss, he was also terrible – .227/.292/.364.
And with that, New York washed their hands of him.
New York fans aren’t entirely off when they notice Soriano’s arrival on the scene coincides precisely with when they stopped winning World Series. The guy flat-out sucks in high-pressure situations.
Of course, Soriano continued his miserable playoff performances in 2007 and 2008 with the Cubs, posting a .143/.200/.143 in three ’07 losses, and a just historically bad .071/.071/.071 in 2008.
Soriano has a long, long track record of being a singularly poor playoff performer. For his career, he’s posted a .562 OPS in 186 playoff plate appearances. That just sucks.
In fact, his performance against good pitching in general is not good. The Yankees learned this lesson back when he was young, and they’ve been proven seriously right in selling seriously high and getting rid of him.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 1, 2011 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
OK. I was thinking about the 2001 ALCS, I guess.
I would say that blaming Soriano for the Yankees not winning WS between 2001-03 doesn’t seem fair, though. The team won two pennants in that time and were a Luis Gonzalez floater from winning the 2001 series.
While Soriano was really bad in the playoffs with the Cubs, he was more erratic in the playoffs with the Yankees. He was bad more often than he was good, but he was good or at least OK some of the time.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I think "erratic" is being generous.
In three years and 7 playoff series, he was awesome in one 5-game ALCS. He was “adequate” in one ALDS, two years later (not that a .789 OPS is anything of real interest.)
All the rest of the time he absolutely stunk. His other 5 NYY playoff series OPS: .485, .600, .563, .354, .655.
You would be disappointed with Aaron Miles posting those kinds of stats.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 1, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
I still think blaming Soriano for the relative lack of postseason success — the Yankees did with the pennant in 2001 and 2003, after all — is pretty dumb.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
He definitely contributed to the losses.
In 2001, 2002 and 2003, Sori was the Yankee with (more or less) the most at-bats in the playoff losses, and he produced at or below replacement level. After three straight years of that, you get sick of it.
Lord knows I was ready to write Soriano off after 2008. When something happens over and over and over and over, it’s not coincidence.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 1, 2011 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, come on.
It’s not as if the Yankees had three first-round playoff losses in 2001-03. They won two pennants.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
i know. And in the 5 seasons prior, they'd won 4 Series.
I’m not saying “Alfonso Soriano cost the Yankees the 2001-2002-2003 titles”. That’s not my thesis.
What I AM saying is that Alfonso Soriano performed horribly in the playoffs from 2001-2003. And a Yankees squad that had won 4 titles in 5 years didn’t win the title again until 2009.
And Yankees fans, who are, frankly, accostomed to making the playoffs – and who positively revere the True Yankee guys who shined brightly in those situations (i.e., Scott Brosius, Jim Leyritz), were and are very aware that Alfonso Soriano completely spit the bit in three straight postseasons.
That’s why I disagree with your premise that the Bronx would be forgiving and accepting of a late-period Soriano. They never liked him that much to begin with, and the intervening years have shown that they were right to get rid of him.
This isn’t the equivalent of Paulie O’Neill or Bernie Williams getting “clap-clap-CLAPCLAPCLAPs” in their farewell seasons.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 1, 2011 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions
OK. Fair enough.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
In the right ballpark...
…I think Soriano can still do some damage as a DH.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
He still does damage at Wrigley
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
That would be the dream scenario...
We could very likely find a platoon pair for $3-4 million that could produce more than Soriano over the next three years. If some team would be willing to do such a deal, I’d be all for that.
The Yankees won't need another right-handed hitter that badly if Jesus Montero lives up to the hype
I think they’ll be looking as much at guys who can play defense on the left side the infield to spell Jeter and A-Rod as anything this offseason.
For the record
Just on the other side of town the Sox would LOVE to have Soriano in replace of Dunn and Rios, both of whom play OF and DH. Neither contracts I’d want over here and I doubt the Sox cut one of the two to open a spot, but there are teams would be interested if the right deal came along. I think the Orioles, Mariners, and Angels would be interested in him if we took on a bunch of salary
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I know Rios has had a terrible year.
But he has some value because he can play more than one OF position. I’m not necessarily saying that we should try to trade for him, I’m just saying that he would have more value to the Cubs than Soriano.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Well, maybe he'd have more value to the Cubs...
But Rios has had a negative or replacement level WAR in 2 of the last 3 years. He’s capable of playing LF or RF adequately defensively (not as thrilled with him in CF), but the bat his a huge question mark. There’s a chance Soriano beats him by 150 points in OPS next year. And it’s not like we have a guy who he’s clearly blocking in LF.
If Cub fans are down on the "effort" of Soriano (and/or Ramirez), wait until they'd get a load of Rios.
He may be the most apathetic ballplayer that ever existed.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Odds of Dunn?
Could anyone have foreseen Dunn’s astronomically bad year? It’s just a pain to watch a player struggle so mightly with what should seem so simple (even with the bar set as low as hitting singles some of the time). How many players across the history of MLB had a sudden plummet in performance like that? It seems like the odds of a meteorite falling in any given area.
And the Cubs would have to eat a lot of Soriano salary to make another team bite. And the Southside is in the same media market as the Cubs. They know everything that’s going on with the Cubs, with Soriano, so they seem among the least likely for taking Soriano.
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Dunn was probably the most consistent player over the course of the past few years.
What has happened to him this year is one of the most surprising things I’ve seen in baseball. If someone was to tell me prior to this season that he would be healthy and hit less than 25 HR’s I wouldn’t have believed you. He’s hit 11.
Unless there is some undisclosed injury or other factor, this is truly mind-boggling.
by jerry morales rules on Sep 1, 2011 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder if Dunn's problem is switching to the American League...
Prior to his signing with the White Sox, he kept saying he wanted to be able to play everyday and indicating he’d prefer to remain in the National League. The White Sox offered him the kind of money he was seeking and when he signed, he said he was fine with be a DH as long as he got to play sometimes. He may have geniunely thought he’d be fine with it.
However, I think he’s found making the mental adjustment to DH more difficult than he anticipated and/or is willing to admit.
"Pinky, are you pondering what I'm pondering?"--The Brain
I think its a combination of factors
1. Switching leagues
2. Not playing the field/ full time DHing
3. Burst appendix the first week of the season
4. An absolutely awful BABIP
It’s been like a perfect storm of bad fortune on his part. If we could swing a Dunn for Soriano swap. I’d love to see it happen.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Soriano can't really be compared to Rowland/Tejeda either
20 more homeruns than either with only 80/100 more plate appearances – agreed he’s not worth nearly $18 million but disagree on straight up DFA – just like Bradley deal I have to believe there’s someone out there that will agree to take on at least some of his salary
A good read
Barry Rozner’s column today on the Cubs GM search.
A few other things…
First, Jim Hendry’s inability to “make tough decisions” like the Giants did was a big part of who Hendry was. I actually don’t think it was him being unable to do the hard thing, rather it was him totally ingratiating himself to the players. Hendry was the ultimate player’s GM. Whether it was because he wanted them to love him or because he felt that the Cubs having the reputation of being “for the player” would help them land free agents, this was who Hendry was.
Ultimately I am concerned with the current structure that Ricketts seems to be creating within the front office. He seemingly is taking the baseball operations role that a president does and really this seems odd. The organization needs to be totally revamped, with a new “way of doing things” from player development to scouting and everywhere in between. Ricketts isn’t the guy to oversee this, and a GM (possibly a young, new GM) would be hard pressed to both restock the parent club while also focusing the needed attention organization wide. I still hold out hope that someone like Pat Gillick could be brought in to help (a la John Hart in Texas or Jerry Hunsicker in Tampa).
Agree wholeheartedly about Hendry being an ultimate players' GM
I think this was a HUGE part of his reluctance to ever go to arbitration.
It also theoretically
Made players want to play for him, and want to stay via an undermarket extension.
I say theoretically, because, even if true, the downsides of being an extreme “player’s general manager” outweigh whatever those benefits might be.
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by Brett Taylor on Sep 1, 2011 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Further...
… the “undermarket” was trumped by the other overvalued contracts, extra years and no trade clauses
Right.
And although it got players to like playing for Hendry, and by extension his managers, it also led to an atmosphere where it didn’t seem to matter what anyone did, because management would always take the player’s side instead of doing what was best for the team.
Only in extreme circumstances like the Bradley or Zambrano incidents did anyone actually do something.
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I could take up Ricketts' side very easily
He seems to be leading the team toward best practices for modern teams by investing in the development side of the team and adding Ari Kaplan to, hopefully, develop proprietary stats for the Cubs. With Hendry at the helm, it seemed like a bit of a stretch to add new ideas to an old school GM.
If he turns the team over to the GM to lead the way, there’s nothing wrong with Ricketts pointing the team in the right direction right now.
Only Aramis and Dempster were undermarket
And they weren’t under by a tremendous amount. Dempster probably saved $1 million or so per year, and Aramis was likely around the same. Although you hear rumblings that Z would have gotten $20 million per year on the open market, I have my doubts. He had seen 3 straight years of steady decline in both his peripherals and his results. I think he got about right in like with his market value (which we now know was way too high).
But these small victories get thrown out with the player-friendly extensions that were OVER value such as John Grabow’s 2 year, $7.5 million deal.
Totall agree.
The Cubs never got a home-town discount that really mattered much.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
apology in 3...2...1...
And probably why the Cubs would end up apologizing to Zambrano for his latest mound rage incident.
by ddoubleheader on Sep 1, 2011 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Although, once Bradley crossed the line, Hendry made it clear he was done with the Cubs.
I think had Hendry not been dismissed, that would be the same with Z. And I believe it will turn out that way.
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I think the "tough" GM decisions come down to this
If Hendry would’ve released someone with a high salary, even for the good of the team, it would be admitting he was wrong. This is a quality he never seemed to hold. It’s much easier for a new GM to come in and “cut” another person’s mistake and say, “That guy screwed up, so I’m dumping his garbage.”
Well ...
that’s essentially what he did with Bradley.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
He didn't cut Bradley
And Bradley still got paid for the remainder of the 2009 season.
Cutting someone isn't really that different ...
than trading said person for Carlos Silva. And there’s no way Hendry could have not paid Bradley for the last few weeks in September 2009.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
How is that not different?
I don’t see how dumping someone and eating his salary is the same as trading him and getting use out of someone else is the same thing.
I said it's not THAT different.
I didn’t say they were exactly the same. Remember, the Cubs got a guy who was thought of as next to useless. Silva somehow managed to pitch pretty well for the first half of 2010 — but he was so bad in Seattle that the Mariners actually sent the Cubs money AND took on one of the worst clubhouse personalities of all time to get rid of him.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
It's pretty different
The Cubs got Silva and some salary relief for Bradley. That $6 million alone was relevant (even ignoring how well Silva pitched for half of 2010).
Bradley...
…was a “reactive decision” and one Hendry really had no choice with.
Rarely, was Hendry ever in the “proactive mode” when he made decisons and that is when it becomes cumulative and burns you over time.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Rosenbloom article
I liked the Rozner article and I agree that that Ricketts appears to be taking over more of the baseball operations. But I like the guy. And it is his team. I think he is trying to do whatever he can to make the Cubs better. It had to be hard for him to get rid of Hendry. Saying that, I was annoyed at the Rosenbloom article that derided Ricketts (“Fanboy Owner”). That article is just trash. Just my opinion.
wccubfan
Excellent article...
…and I completely agree about what he says about candidates understanding “Cub culture”.
Well, if the culture hasn’t produced a championship for 103 years and many miserable seasons, I say you want someone who is single focued on bringing; “a winning culture” and who gives a shit how much he knows about “Cubs culture”.
As he mentioned, Green was the best hire the trib ever did and they screwed it up. Green was also the “anti – Jim Hendry”, when it came to how they went about their business and simply, how smart they were when it came to building a winner.
Time to be bold and hire someone, who can define a “new culture”, that includes accountability and winning.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Well done.
I do think that Soriano will be the opening day starter in leftfield next year. Eating 12M for Rowand is a lot cheaper than eating 54M for Soriano. The Cubs are going to have to be more creative in other areas to improve the club. And to put Jackson in left would be a big risk, considering that Colvin could be the opening day starter in right.
Me personally I would diligently try to improve the starting staff. That should be the Number 1 priority.
But I am with the majority here that this organization needs a GM who will transform this franchise. Followed by a manager who will no longer allow listless, sloppy baseball.
Correct me if I'm wrong
but if you release Soriano and he signs with another team as a FA (which he most certainly would), doesn’t the amount of the contract he signs with the new team get subtracted from the old Cubs contract? For Example, say the Cubs release Soriano, and he signs with the Rays for a 3 year, $3 million deal. Doesn’t this mean the Cubs would “only” be on the hook for $17 million a year?
That's what I thought
So the Cubs wouldn’t be paying $18.5 million at all. Even at league minimum from his new team, the Cubs would be paying, at worst, the same amount for a Soriano/Byrd/Colvin OF as they would be for a Jackson/Byrd/Colvin OF after dumping Soriano.
agreed
although the best I would like to see is an outfield of:
LF – Soriano/Campana (platoon)
CF – Jackson (although Aisle 424 had a good writeup on why we should wait until June to call him up)
RF – Byrd
I'd rather see this outfield:
Vs LHP:
LF-Soriano CF-Johnson RF-Byrd
Vs RHP
LF-Campana(with Soriano in for good matchups) CF-Byrd RF-Colvin
Byrd, apparently has better hitting stats vs RHP. This would be if the Cubs want to wait to bring up Jackson.
A few concerns with that approach
1. I’m not sure that Soriano can remain at all productive on the wrong side of a platoon
2. You might have to juggle the lineup a bit with a Soriano/Campana platoon.
Also, in that scenario, I’d put Reed Johnson in RF and keep Byrd in CF. No reason to yank him around for Reed Johnson (who’s not really an upgrade defensively at this point).
I'd hope that Soriano could get 50+% of the LF action.
There are some RHP that I believe Soriano has their number. At least I’d hope this was still true.
50+% is still a LOT of time not playing
for a timing hitter like Soriano, I wonder if that would still be a problem.
much more radical thoughts
Albeit that I think cutting Soriano, now or in 2012 will not happen, though platooning him with a left handed bat is a real possibility. CF-RF I think the Cubs are going to trade. Dodgers are really in financial trouble and cannot afford to keep both OF’ers under arbitration and lose to free agency. Naturally Kemp is the real find but a less prospect cost so is Ethier.
After that the question then is fill in the blank with RJackson in the other spot. Colvin, Byrd and even RJohnson are fill ins.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
He can't sign for more than the pro-rated minimum
So the Cubs would only save about 400K per season.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Soriano - platoon
The only way Soriano has any real value to a team that wants to contend is the right handed bat of a platoon. His numbers against LHP are still very decent. His numbers vs RHP are not. That is one way to justify keeping him around a little longer. Other than that, I say cut him.
agreed....platoon him with Campana.....the rest of the year and see how that goes....
At least one of the players would provide excitement
No excitement needed, thank you!
I mean since that game (08/24) where he reached on an infield error, stole second, forced pitcher into balking him to third and scored on a infield groundout – pretty much manufacturing a run with his speed alone – he’s started exactly zero games in the week since. Oh yeah, he walked that game too.
I'd put the chance of seeing Campana platoon with Soriano
the same as the chance of seeing Quade fired before the end of the season.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
You didn't think soriano's
pair of 420+ feet jacks in the first two games were exciting. Man tough crowd:)
Marilyn Monroe "yogi your a pretty cool guy"
Berra " Marilyn you ain't so hot yourself"!
This team needs
consistency not highlight moments.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
Well they have consistently
not supplied many highlights!
Marilyn Monroe "yogi your a pretty cool guy"
Berra " Marilyn you ain't so hot yourself"!
Outside of his contract.....people keep handing a starting job to Byrd....He is a 4th OF on a good team....
Wait I just remembered what the Cubs really are…
Not sure anybody really WANTS to hand the job to Byrd
It’s just that we realize that at least one of the OF jobs is his next year.
If he gets beat out by someone....he should not start....
Dome was handed the RF job this year even though there should have been competition from Colvin ……But again its the contract I guess…
Probably moreso the "intangibles" that Byrd provides
It’s sad to say, but the leadership he brings to the team is pretty invaluable right now. And this is coming from a guy that hates this type of talk.
But as for 2012, I don’t think there is anyone with a legit chance of beating him out for a spot.
Byrd's clubhouse rep ...
took a serious hit with me when he blogged about he was cool with Holliday’s takeout slide of Castro.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Can you put a value on his invaluable leadership?
Listen, I think Byrd is fun to watch in the field and he seems to be a real nice guy. But he’s got 25RBI and he’s .200 RISP. And that’s batting middle of the order. Those are terrible numbers. He should be one of the easiest guys to replace in CF. We could save money and probably get a prospect or two.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
And for all the clubhouse leadership Byrd may or may not provide...
He’s never been on a playoff team in his career. So even if he does provide a great clubhouse presence, there’s definitely some question as to how much value that presence provides.
I agree wholeheartedly
Don’t mistakenly think I would rather keep Byrd around. I wanted to trade him at the deadline. I’m simply stating that looking at the current OF options, Byrd is easily one of the two best right now.
The future is now
For too long this organization has refused to look forward. Byrd is not in the future of the Cubs moving forward. And i know Campana isn’t a future starter. However, I think it’s more appropriate to see an extended Campy in CF than redo the Byrdman taking away time to better evaluate the youngster. Bampana can be a game changer. Byrd is simply taking at bats from a prospect. That’s not a good philosophy for a team with nothing to gain this year.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
Kosuke and Colvin
I am as big a Quade critic as there is, but, in fairness. Colvin was awful in spring training and continued that into the season. Fukudome clearly outplayed him at the start of the season.
Now, if the stated goal of the season was to rebuild and see what talent we have for the longterm, then certainly Colvin should have been the opening day RF and Kosuke sent packing. Even though I wish that is what had happened ( I actually would have preferred Colvin being the opening day 1B), the reality is that the Cubs were trying to catch lighting in a bottle and compete this year. For that, you cannot blame Quade.
Eamus Ursuli!
Colvin line in the spring:
AVE .258, OPS. 758, 3 homeruns and 11 RBI’s
Soriano in the spring: AVE .219, OPS 637, 3 homeruns and 12 RBI’s.
Colvin wasn’t awful.
By the way Dome’s line in the spring: AVE .173, OPS: 526, no homeruns, and 4 RBI’s
Except that he did have chances
He started almost every day for the first 2.5 weeks of the season. He played himself onto the bench.
No he didnt..Dome, Byrd, and Soriano played everyday with Reed filling in vs a RHP....
What team were you watching?
Colvin played a lot because Pena was hurt.
Look at the game logs. He actually did play a lot until about the third week.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
And Colvin started almost every day out of spring training
His playing time tailed off after the middle of April, when he was batting .130.
No, he is, TJ.
I’m a Colvin fan. But it’s incorrect to say he wasn’t getting playing time in early April.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I remeber being irritated becasue he was not playing...perhaps he is right....
I just remember him sitting quite a bit when he was up the 1st time.
After the first few weeks, yes.
But he had no business being in the line up with how he was playing. Little did we know we were already out of it, but hindsight is 20/20.
Haha, this is why you need to actually express opinions about things more often
…instead of just shitting up the forums. Your opinions are 1.5 million times more hilarious than your gimmick is.
Byrd….is a 4th OF on a good team….
Byrd is better than at least half of the starting center fielders in baseball. He’s a plus defender and an above average bat at his position. While he’s not an elite center fielder by any stretch of the imagination, he’s definitely not the problem, and a lot of teams would love to get his production out of a center fielder.
Not only that, he's a good clubhouse guy and not expensive.
I’d keep him.
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He's due $6.5M in 2012
I can think of a lot of better uses for that money. As for his good clubhouse character, tell me how many games he’s improved our team the past two years he’s been here. A smart GM will get rid of him ASAP. Of course, other GMs probably would be unwilling to spend that much money on a nice guy who makes the team forget about how terrible they are.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
He's worth keeping if the Cubs aren't set on Jackson.
Otherwise, he’s still valuable because of his CF defense.
I’d trade him in the right deal — saving the money on his salary could really help — but I wouldn’t trade him if we had to, say, eat most of the money.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I'm not suggesting
we just release him. However, he hasn’t had a good year, he is not the future CF of the Cubs, and we have someone on the bench who can provide at least as much offensively and defensively as Byrd. Why we don’t play Campana more is beyond my understanding. I’m so sick and tired of watching veteran players having a bad year on a bad team still starting in the waning days while youngsters ride the bench.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
The fact that you think Campana will match Byrd's offensive numbers is where you're simply wrong.
Byrd isn’t incredible, but he is in the top half of all starting CFers for wOBA and he’s been above average defensively as well. I don’t think he’s a CFer I’d want on a contending team, but he’s certainly not as bad as you’re making him out to be, and Campana certainly isn’t as good.
Campana has absolutely no plus other than speed. He has terrible discipline, a terrible arm, no power, and doesn’t hit for a high average.
25 RBI and .200 RISP production
isn’t close to getting any love from me.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
In over 1050 PA he has a .275 BA with RISP
You’re looking at a very small sample size from a very bad team. It’s not like he has historically not been able to hit with RISP. People are taking these stats and running wild with them. I swear I’ve never seen RISP used in a 75 AB sample size to damn a player more often than I have in the last 2 weeks.
Are you channeling Hendry or Quade
If a player consistently underperforms for an entire season a smart team looks for reasons and adjusts accordingly. We’ve got a 34 year old player due $6.5M next year. Is it your position that Byrd will earn that much and this year is an outlier?
Past performance is a significant basis for future predictions, but the real question must be whether career trumps current year. In any case, is it wise to put Byrd in the middle of the lineup? I fail to see the rationale for hitting a guy with little power and is having a terrible where he has failed repeatedly. BTW, the sample size is 110 AB.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
Don't see where I ever advocated him for middle of the order....
also, 110 AB is a small sample size. Either that, or the people jumping to back Colvins numbers need a new defense.
Wait a minute.......
On the releasing Soriano issue- you say that Hendry never, ever would do what the Giants just did- cutting a bunch of money. You’re presuming Hendry had the authority to do that if he wished while he was here. Since he never, ever did it, one could also presume he wasn’t allowed to do so. Criticizing him for this isn’t exactly fair since we don’t know either way.
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He had several owners.....He never cut anyone...yet managed to talk the owners into spending all kinds of money on players like Bradley....
So he could get money when he wanted too…Just did not spend it wisely.
So yes he get some blame.
That's a fair point.
That needs to be approved by ownership, obviously.
However, it doesn’t appear that Hendry ever even considered asking for permission to do so, either.
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Here is the other thing with Hendry...
…If the organization was light in the scouting department, why didn’t he lobby ownership to change that sooner? With the payrolls he was offered, he could have hired a boat load of scouts for a minute fraction of the yearly payroll.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
So, you wanna release a guy...
who’s stats are gonna be in the ballpark of .250/28/80 who makes $18M a year and replace him with a guy who’s hitting .140, who (adding in Soriano’s cost) will cost you $18.5?
Granted, Soriano is a detriment on defense, but, he’s also a guy who can carry a team for a 5 or 10 game stretch a couple times a year. Ummm…Colvin can’t do that.
The Giants releasing Rowand is NO comparison to the Cubs releasing Soriano, because, Soriano is still producing…Rowand just flat out sucks. Is Fonz worth $18M…of course not. Is it worth $18M for him to play on someone else’s team? Absolutely not. At least not to play Tyler Colvin everyday. Keep Soriano in LF…get rid of Byrd…put B-Jax in CF and let Colvin/Johnson have RF…or preferably Andre Eithier…that is IF the Cubs decide to spend a little this winter.
Good job, Tom...now on to the manager problem.
by Easy Ed on Sep 1, 2011 10:40 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with your final suggestion, Ed.
And I think what you outlined (minus Ethier) is what will happen. Byrd is going to be Jason Marquis’d, I think.
However, you are not allowing for the possibility (slim, though it is) that Soriano will be traded.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
If they can trade him...
…then yes, he needs to be traded. A $54M salary dump is insane.
Good job, Tom...now on to the manager problem.
Eithier would have to be acquired via trade
He still has a year left with the Dodgers
Yep...and from what's going on there...
a trade could be done.
Good job, Tom...now on to the manager problem.
I just drooled at that thought
Where to even start on how much the Dodgers would want. I think Cashner is involved
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
For one guaranteed year of Ethier?
Pass. His bat is very good, but he is a defensive liability. Not to mention that we’d only have him for 1 year.
I take it you are in the camp that 1 injury to Cashner means he can’t be a starter.
He might come so cheap, even I couldn't argue against it.
…and I’m not an Ethier fan. If the Dodgers get desperate to shed him and will do it for next to nothing, the Cubs would be dumb to not take a flier on him and then look to flip him.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 2, 2011 1:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Soriano then and now
Yes, he was capable of carrying this team for stretches in the past. However, that’s no longer the case. Yes, he may have had some stretches of play where his HR rate improved but his game has so deteriorated that he’s become a one trick pony.
March/April was his best month with 10HR. Yet he only hit .258 and the team’s record was still under .500, 12-14. As we move forward, the expectations of Soriano lugging this team on his back seem more fantasy than fact.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
Agree Ed
I think starting the season with Colvin and BJax as starters is a huge gamble that is unlikely to pay off for either of them. Having another veteran (even Soriano) so that you can spot Bjax at the beginning would be best for his development. A four man rotation of Colvin, BJax, and two vets would give both of them the best chance of succeeding. That is why i would stay with Soriano to start the season. If Colvin and BJax are doing well then dump him.
You can get more with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone. - Al Capone
"5-10 game stretch, a couple times a year"
What about all the coldn stretches, lack of defense, poor clutch hitting, and lack of hustle that goes on the other 142?
Does it equal out? Not at all…
It's still better than a .140 hitter...
or a Campana, which, by the way…if we have Campana on this team come Spring, then this team/organization is worse off than any of us thought…unless the league installs a designated runner rule.
Good job, Tom...now on to the manager problem.
I agree...
…I just don’t want the Cubs to be the one paying him $18M a year to do it.
Good job, Tom...now on to the manager problem.
What's wrong with camapana?
Excellent pinch runner and late game sub, essentially Reed Johnson with a little less power
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
And a lot lower AVG/OBP skills
and a weaker arm, but more speed. Basically nothing like Reed Johnson.
As a pinch runner/sub, Campana is fine. But the discussion was regarding Campana (or Colvin) as a replacement for Soriano as a starter.
A LOT less power...
…and RJ doesn’t have all that much power to begin with.
Baseball is pitching, offensive production, baserunning and defense.
I disagree about the buddy system - to a point
There needs to be a core group in the front office who understand the strategic mission of the team and agree about how players will be evaluated and how player development will work. While you don’t want idealouges or guys who are just Yes Men, you do want some loyalty and people who aren’t going to just bend every way the wind blows. This is true of any executive team.
In addition, baseball is a game that works on the buddy system. It’s well documented that certain GMs tend to trade more often with other specific GMs. Having a GM with a wide network of baseball insiders who he (or she) can call on to give assessments of players or trade ideas is an invaluable asset and something that should not easily be dismissed. The unfortunate thing is that, so often in the business of sports, you end up with a guy who’s all bark and no bite.
Loyalty? Maybe.
But I think this was taken way too far by the Hendry regime.
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For as much money as their being paid
I’ll be loyal to ANYONE
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
The new GM
will have to get Ricketts parameters for cutting Soriano. It’s just to big a decision to make without approval. Same for Hendry’s regime. Obviously Ricketts has been slow to make change but the new GM will know his limits before he’s hired.
Personally, I don’t give a damn who’s hired if the Gm choice is a good one. If he wants to add a manager he’s comfortable with, that’s OK too. All of the posturing about bench coaches and next year’s lineup are extremely premature at this time. The culture of this organization is so flawed that it’s wise to give the next GM as much latitude as possible moving forward. That’s why I would prefer a younger GM without obligations due to past relationships.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
crane kenney will be making all the baseball decisions
the new gm is gonna just be his sock puppet!
by doofus cubs guy on Sep 1, 2011 11:16 AM CDT reply actions
Al... just wanted to say I'd much rather read your articles on this topic
Than the majority of all baseball reporters, local and national, who write nothing more than speculative sensationalism with claims that “so and so” is or isn’t a candidate for the job.
Heck, just one day before the press conference announcing Hendry’s firing, we had baseball writers in Chicago reporting that Hendry will be back in 2012. Ridiculous.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
Wait...you have baseball writers in Chicago?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Sep 1, 2011 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Soriano
has declined every year since he’s come to the Cubs in 2007, with that year being his best season statistically. He’s never produced over 100 RBIs in a season. He’s only hit over 30 HRs once (2007 again). He’s only played over 140 games once and that was last year.
I’d say we get him to waive a no-trade clause and trade him to a small market team like the Pirates, Marlins, or Seattle and get a couple picks, a few draft picks, and maybe a MLB-ready pitcher. We might have to eat some money, but so be it. Call up Jackson and have him and Colvin platoon or have them fight it out in Spring Training.
by ChicagoBlues1983 on Sep 1, 2011 12:22 PM CDT reply actions
There is absolutely no way ...
a small market team in the National League would want Soriano patrolling left field for the next three years, even at a discount.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
That's exactly right, el...
what’s sad is that the MAIN big market teams don’t need him…Yanks, Sawx, Mets (financial hell), Dodgers (on the same bus as the Mets), Angels (I think Vernon Wells smartened them up). The one I find could be coaxed into a trade is the White Sox…Maybe a Soriano for Dunn sorta deal…split the cost right down the middle. Soriano would absolutely tear it up in that band box. I also think Dunn needs to get back in the NL. I know, I know…he’s having a very VERY piss poor year, but, that man loves Wrigley. I dunno…probably a snowball’s chance in hell, but, hey…I’m a BIG Dunn fan.
Good job, Tom...now on to the manager problem.
I would be fairly intrigued by a Dunn for Soriano deal
Because I think a rebound (for a couple of years) is much more likely from Dunn than Soriano. And Dunn is actually a good bit cheaper than Soriano.
That said, I can’t imagine why a team would trade Dunn who’s only 31 and had four straight .890+ OPS years (and 9 of 10 seasons with an OPS of .850 or more) for a 35 year old who hasn’t topped .820 in OPS in 3 years AND makes a lot more money.
Or Rios for that matter
I think a trade for Rios would be more likely, though you could stick Dunn at first, where he sux and see what happens. Wow, Castro would have a dozen more errors with a butcher like Dunn there. Agreed though, no way they make that deal.
Rios would at least bring a player who sometimes hustles. Part of what drives me nuts about Soriano is the appearance that he just doesn’t care.
You can get more with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone. - Al Capone
I've been watching Rios lately...
…he’s quit on the Sox. I see him and Ozzie going at it soon. Dunn, on the other hand, looks beaten. He hasn’t a clue. I’d take Dunn, tho, because I think he can right the ship again…pass on Rios, tho. As far as Castro’s errors goes…HE needs to improve his defense. Hopefully, the new manager, if there is one, focuses on DEFENSE, for a change.
Good job, Tom...now on to the manager problem.
I agree on Rios
Ozzie has said positive things about Soriano in the past. I would still take Rios over Soriano. But wow, what a hobson’s choice. Dunn would be better still because as you point out, there may still be some upside there. No way they make the Dunn trade though.
You can get more with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone. - Al Capone
Rios has one key thing that Soriano lacks.
Defensive versatility. I would be interested in exploring a Rios/Soriano trade.
The problem with Dunn is that he either plays first (yuck) or left (almost as much yuck). I’ve always liked Dunn, but I don’t think the Cubs should make any moves that makes roster construction less flexible.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
The White Sox...
would have to cover portions of Rios’ deal because he’s that bad. It would have to a Bradley-type deal… or just cut Soriano. I have no faith in Rios’ ability to produce in the future… Dunn has a better chance at that.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 1, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Rios was good last year.
Also, if Dunn is bad, the Cubs essentially have Soriano redux. Aguy with occasional pop who almost has to play because of his contract and who fills a position where a better player could fit in.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Rios...
was good to start last year, but tailed off pretty bad by the middle of last year, through to the end and all of this year. He basically had one good month in 2010 and then sucked the rest of the time. If I saw any upward trend I’d agree with you, but he’s getting worse. The Cubs possibly have better players than Soriano or Rios waiting to get playing time, we can’t say that about 1B unless we want to spend another $10m on Pena.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 1, 2011 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Soriano has been 2.3 wins better than Rios and 3.7 wins better than Dunn this year
That means that both Rios and Dunn would have to have extreme bouncebacks to even come close to Soriano’s production.
I guess I’m not sure what we gain by trading for worse players. Even if the money is better, it would have to be a lot better to be worth the risk.
Well, it might be a proactive move.
Soriano is in his mid 30s and his legs are not going to get better. Dunn and Rios have been worse this year, but will they be worse in two seasons?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I'm just saying that the marginal difference is really, really big
They’d have to bounce back significantly, and Soriano would have to get a fair bit worse, for that gap to close.
I think we can count on Soriano getting a fair bit worse.
He’ll be 36 on Opening Day next season. He’ll be 38 in 2014. He should be hoping for a trade to the AL so he can get a few more years out of his legs.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I believe you
But the idea of trading him for either of those players is that not only will he get a lot worse, they’ll get a lot better.
Appearance?
Part of what drives me nuts about Soriano is the appearance that he just doesn’t care.
That bothers me a little bit. The guy plays everyday…he has a bad leg, and doesn’t sprint on pop-ups…either does half the major leagues. I actually think Sori has shown some nice character. He was the ONLY one to call out big Z. He takes the constant abuse from the fans (warranted or not), without ever saying one bad word.
Be careful about “appearances”.
"I feel great, I just wish my team played better"
We don't know if he was the only one to call out Z.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
If it would ever happen for Dunn, this is the time.
He’s so lost at the plate right now, it looks like a career-ending kind of season.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 1, 2011 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
You're not going to get that kind of deal.
No one wants Soriano. Period. Unless the Cubs pick up 90% and up of the salary. Even if the Cubs do, you’re not gonna get any prospects worth anything for a guy who’s major league time is clearly nearing an end who only does one thing well, that being swinging and missing at sliders and curves.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Sep 1, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
You can't trade for draft picks in MLB.
Also, no small market team is going to take on ANY of Soriano’s contract.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 1, 2011 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
You're not seriously...
suggesting a Jackson-Byrd-Colvin outfield next year, are you? Byrd isn’t that good of a player, Colvin has been below average (to put it VERY lightly) in his career and who knows what you’d get with Jackson. That might be the worst OF in baseball next year.
The bottom line is that Tyler Colvin should be counted on as nothing more than a 4th outfielder, at best.
That outfield...
isn’t improved enough by replacing Colvin, Byrd or Jackson with Soriano in anything other than a limited role. It would be a lot different if the team had a better chance to compete next year.
I don’t think there’s many teams in baseball that want Alfonso Soriano bad enough to help the Cubs stop floundering by having to play Soriano in the outfield.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 1, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
The only way I see it happening ...
is if the Sox want to dump Rios or Dunn. And that’s a stretch.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Yep
If I were any form of competition, I would wait the Cubs out until they had to eat every penny and suck until they did.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 1, 2011 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
And, to a point ...
the White Sox are competitors. If the Cubs are bad, more casual fans might take the Red Line south to catch a game.
The Sox should really be kicking themselves that they’ve been so bad this year. As far as gathering city attention, they could have cleaned up.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I would do it for Dunn...
only because the Cubs have an opening at 1B and I’ll take a chance on him since Fielder and Pujols ain’t comin’. Worst that happens is you end up having to cut Dunn, which would end up the solution with Soriano anyway, barring a miracle.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 1, 2011 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I would definitely roll the dice on Dunn (especially if it comes with the financial savings)...
of course, it’s irrelevant, because I don’t see the Sox making that move.
Hmmm.
Dunn’s due to earn $14 million next year and $15 million in the following two seasons. And he is only 31. If the Cubs trade Soriano, and maybe the difference in the contracts, you get Dunn for three years and $44 million instead of Fielder for $140 million over seven years (possibly more).
Put Dunn in left, re-sign Pena and you’ve upgraded your lineup — assuming Dunn can bounce back — and you still have money to go after starting pitching and re-up Aramis.
Lineup would be Castro, Jackson, Ramirez, Dunn, Soto, Pena, Colvin, Barney
That’s really not terrible, if Dunn can regain some of his stroke and the left field defense can be ignored. It also would be the most balanced Cubs lineup in years.
Probably won’t happen, though.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
In my scenario...
I would hope the Cubs would make the trade, including the difference in the contracts, but getting some money back too… because that’s how bad Dunn has been this year… and there would be reason to think Soriano could just go the AL, play DH, hack away and be useful for that… at least that’s how I’d sell it to anyone such as the Sox, Mariners (fat chance, they’re not that stupid, and they have better options right now), Angels, Texas, etc.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 1, 2011 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Dunn at first
He can’t play left anymore. i am in DC and watched him the past few years. its first base or nothing. I would still take that and hope he reverts to form hitting. I would hate to lose Pena’s defense but the team won’t be competing next year anyway and watching Dunn hit bombs would be fun.
You can get more with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone. - Al Capone
Dunn is so abysmally awful in left that he makes Soriano look like Willie Mays
Dunn is so catastrophically awful anywhere in the field, that even when he’s good it wipes out half of his value. When he’s bad – and he’s been bad on a historic level – he’s a trainwreck on both sides of the ball.
Dunn has put up a -2.6WAR this year. If he was playing in the field every day, that would be closer to -3.5. And that’s at first base. I can’t imagine what it would be if he was an everyday corner outfielder.
nobody makes Soriano look like Mays,,,,,,
I think you are way to high on Soriano….But that is to be expected…
A quick point about Soriano
We are quite content from almost the same numbers coming from Carlos Pena, who’s hitting .225 and Soto who is hitting .229. Pena has above average defense, where Soriano does not, and Soto has shown he can be successful over a full season, but their averages are significantly worse than Soriano’s.
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
by Musicdude10 on Sep 1, 2011 12:55 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Well, I'm not content with either of them either
But batting average isn’t really relevant. Pena’s OPS is about 30 points higher than Soriano’s, and Soto plays a position where his offensive numbers are more valuable than they would be in LF.
And Soto and Pena aren't defensive disasters.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
hmm....Soto's fielding average is .987
.987 as a team average is ranked 13th in the NL, Soto is ranked 8th out of 8th with players over 96 games (he has 103), 4th in ZR and 6th in RF only 3 passed balls (ranked 2nd), and ranked 2nd in CS%,with .324%, though 6th in allowing SB’es, and last in CERA. Soto leads the league with 11 errors
Not sure he is such a top defensive back stop. He is a good offensive back stop though.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
But he's not a defensive disaster.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I have several points of disagreement with your statement here
1. Who says we are quite content with what Pena and Soto are currently doing offensively?
2. The differences in AVG are not significant. we’re talking about a difference of about maybe 8-10 hits difference over a full season (or one hit every 2-3 weeks). Considering the randomness of baseball, that’s far from significant.
3. Even with the slightly lower AVG, Soto and Pena are putting up much better OBP numbers than Soriano. Pena is even outproducing Soriano overall.
4. Both make substantially less money than Soriano.
5. Both play more valuable positions defensively (and play those positions better than Soriano plays his). Soto plays a SUBSTANTIALLY more valuable position.
In total, both Pena and Soto have been more valuable (more WAR) than Soriano at a substantially lower cost. And even then, people are still not all that thrilled with what Pena and Soto have provided this year. That should tell you something about Soriano.
by SouthernCub on Sep 1, 2011 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Absolutely !!!
Completely agree Southern !!! I’m disgusted with Soto … I would like to see him moved. As bad as the production has been from both, the fact that they are still more “valuable” than Sorry is an indictment of Spendry.
IMO Pena won’t be “allowed” another short deal by Boras.
I'm torn on Soto...
Even with his horrible season, he has been average/above average for a catcher. In his good seasons, he’s on the short list of best catchers in baseball. Catchers capable of .800+ OPS and solid defense simply don’t grow on trees.
As for Pena, I don’t think he’ll have much choice. I don’t think anyone will be banging down the doors for his services on anything beyond a 1-year deal.
Trade Market For Soto?
Is there a market to get something for Soto, and bring up Clavenger and Castillo for next year?
The point about Sori is that cubs are stuck with his contract….not with Pena….cubs can say bye bye to that 10 Million of non-production
"I feel great, I just wish my team played better"
Why trade a major asset in a down year??
Soto will bounce back… if you’re going to trade him, now is about the worst possible time to do so. As I say always, the Soto hatred has gotten out of hand here.
I agree with that.
Soto is still good enough given his salary. He’s just not the star that we thought he would be.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
that is true but he needs competition and 50% platoon
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
50% platoon? No.......
Seriously, when he’s on he’s a top 4 catcher in BASEBALL.
no he is not
he ranks near the bottom of catchers with 96+ games in the NL defensively…as I said most errors, highest CERA, 6th worst in SB’s, only good measures are past balls and caught stealing %,
offensively this year he is 4th in the NL in OPS, 6th in MLB with a .730
I might give you 10-12 out of the 30 starting catchers….but 4th come on stop drinking the blue kool aid, this is the time to critically think through the club and their actual performances.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
OPS+ for 2011 is 98
last year it was 134, 2009 it was 80 and 2008 it was 118
even years he might be a top 4 catcher offensively.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Please note I said "when he's on"
You wasted a whole lot of time with your post. I also never said he was a top 4 defensive catcher. He was a below average defensive catcher that has gotten considerably better over the years to become about league average, if not slightly above.
Soto will bounce back?
Um, how do you know that? He’s had one really good year, one terrible year, one pretty good year and one mediocre year.
My guess is a repeat of 2010 is about the best we can expect.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
A repeat of 2010 would be awesome, though.
I can’t imagine expecting more.
Seeya Jimbo! Good job, Tommy Boy!
2010, as in the season he was the best hitting C in the league?
Yeah, I guess I’d take that again.
By what measure?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I thought you were saying he was the seventh best.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
That's this year.
He was a lot better than that in 2008 and 2010.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 2, 2011 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions
He was the 7th-best catcher in baseball in 2010
That’s a pretty awesome thing to hope for.
He’s had a down year offensively (though, so has all of baseball) but he’s still been extemely productive for a catcher (12th-best WAR among catchers in baseball).
I said he had one pretty good year, and I was referring to 2010.
I stand by that. Seventh best is pretty good.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
He's had 2 excellent years...
In 2008 his wOBA was .371 and in 2010 it was .385. Those are both incredible numbers for a catcher. Even this year at a .321 wOBA he’s about an average offensive catcher.
Stop worrying about batting averages...
problem solved.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 1, 2011 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Do you realize?
Alfonso Soriano has an OBP 2 points higher than Koyie Hill?
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 1, 2011 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
That's ... astounding.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
OBP
He has the third-worst OBA in the NL, 10th worst in MLB.
Not that I'm complaining!!!!
I mean, he could hit 30 home runs and everything would then be PERFECT!
Koyie Hill Please..............................................stop
Well, he bats 8th so gets walked either intentionally or pitched around.
KOYIE HILL IS 0-28 WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSTION!
That is why average is important.
"I feel great, I just wish my team played better"
As important as Who the next GM is
I think When the new GM is hired may tell us something. What are the critical dates that the new GM needs to be hired by? Cubs Organizational mtg in October? Would the cubs hire away a curren GM (Epstein, Cashman) while their team was in the playoffs?
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
I doubt a current team would let their GM go during the playoffs.
Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation's Baseball Nation
a team in the playoffs that is
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
One other thing I would add to the list of qualities
is someone who can instill an organization-wide philosophy.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07
Good Article
Good article. My thought is, Soriano is A LOT more productive than a very bad Aaron Rowand. It be better to play Soriano against all lefties, then maybe 1/2 the games against righties. Brett Jackson can play all 3 postions, so he can spell Colvin some games and Byrd some games.
There is a good chance Soriano puts up 30 homers from the 6th-7th postion, which is pretty damn good (provided you have a good 1-5)!
"I feel great, I just wish my team played better"
I say lets keep him for next year
off the bench. Maybe he does OK and we can trade him for a new grounds keeper.
Carrie Muskat wants to be GM?
If he (or she, as there’s at least one woman whose name has been mentioned) can do so, the future of the Cubs can be very bright indeed.
Kim Ng
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Sep 1, 2011 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
To be fair,
SWL and I already answered this.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
desperation is a stinky cologne
I'm a happy panda.
by jesus christos on Sep 1, 2011 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions
You shut yer face you sum bitch.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
What the new GM needs to do
Lots of people above were arguing about Soriano. Here’s the problem with Soriano: who he is surrounded with! You can hide a guy like that on a lot of other teams.
We knew what we were getting and we knew what we’d be saddled with when we signed Alfonso. Hendry’s problem was adding several more flawed hitters to the lineup around him. Aside from Aramis, we don’t have a reliable run producer. Byrd had never been good at driving in runs or taking a pitch… Pena had just hit under .200 and struck out a bunch… Soto is inconsistent – as his weight goes up, his average and RBI’s go down. Fukudome was substandard from day one. Now you throw in some rookies who have yet to learn how to put together good at-bats, and what do you get? Everybody complaining about the guy who makes $18 million.
We have the same problem in our rotation – supplement your talented but inconsistent starters with who? Another talented but inconsistent starter?
But it does in fact go back to McDonough’s mistake and Hendry’s mistake. Giving elite money to players who were not elite performers in Soriano and Zambrano.
I want a GM who understands the following: don’t blow ungodly amounts of money on players who are not SPECIAL. You can throw a big check at a guy like Puhols or Felix Hernandez. But why bother spending high-end money on average or above-average players? New GM should do this:
1. Spend big money on ELITE players if you have it.
2. Continue this new focus on draft and development, paying special attention to real numbers, rather than perceived evaluations of somebody’s idea of “athleticism”. Call it moneyball if you want, but I just want guys with better OPS, better K/BB rates, better WHIPs, etc.
3. In two or three years, you really start seeing your new crop of prospects fill in, and you may have a handful of huge contracts mixed with a lot of solid young players. You won’t be saddled with big contracts to average or above average players anymore. Or players having career years right before their contract time.
4. BALANCE! Lefty, righty, contact, power, speed, offense, defense, starting, relieving… I can’t remember the last time the Cubs felt like a truly balanced team with an approach that could work on any given day.
See Philadelphia. Werth is gone, because he didn’t deserve to earn from the Phillies what the market was willing to pay him. But who did deserve that money? Elite players such as Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. See how they have grown their team from within. I love this model.
Funny to read compliments to Sabean above. He gave big money to Zito and Rowand, neither of whom I would ever consider “elite”. And his offense is still terrible. Last October was smoke and mirrors. No balance.
Kayo Mullins
BADGERS BADGERS BADGERS BADGERS BADGERS BADGERS BADGERS
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
ZOMBIES ZOMBIES ZOMBIES ZOMBIES ZOMBIES ZOMBIES ZOMBIES ZOMBIES
Baseball is pitching, offensive production, baserunning and defense.
He's local?
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Sep 2, 2011 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions
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