A change of mind-Matt Garza
by B.Bruce on Jan 11, 2012 9:01 PM CST
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PrintFor the longest time I've wanted for nothing more than the Cubs trading pitcher Matt Garza for some top grade prospects. However now seeing that the Cubs don't have any top of the rotation guys in the minors, nor do I think they'll be spending big next year in free agency either. I think this is the point where you try and sign Garza to an extension. A 5 year 70 million dollar deal may lock him up, but if he doesn't sign this offseason I would say trade him and get those prospects.
The wisest move Theo and Hoyer could make in this situation would be to collect all the top offers they have for Garza. Then they should set a deadline for before spring training beginsso they can know if they will be signing to a extension. If Garza decides that he would prefer to win now and says he doesn't want to sign with the Cubs, then you trade him. Its as simple as that. With newly aquired Anthony Rizzo, Epstien and Hoyer may back of their asking price of Montero and one of Betances or Banuelos. If that would be the case then the Cubs should either ask for a deal with Banuelos and Sanchez or a deal with Montero, but ask for second-tier prospects along with him. In this type of deal, the front office could then flip Montero to a team in need of offense for some top of the rotation prospects. The Mariners wpuld be the most logical fit in this situation, they could either swap prospects such as Walker or go a different route with the trade. Here are some of the more random deals I have thought of:
Red Sox: Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Ranaudo and Owens
Yankees: Montero, Phelps, Warren, Williams or
Sanchez, Betances, Phelps
Blue Jays: McGuire, Nicilino, Gose, and Jenkins
Rangers: Perez, Rameriz, Olt and Scheppers
Royals: Cuthbert, Montgomery, Ordirizzi.
Obviously I'm not a firm believer in the Garza to the Tigers deal after reading about it a fair amount, however all doors remain open, which one do you think the Cubs will and should take?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Just guessing here,
but Theo has probably heard an offer or two he would accept. He doesn’t look for a trade that is ‘good for both sides, as Hendry seemed to. Theo wants to win the trade. Then go back for more. He may well have a ’deal to extend’ he likes as well. There’s no need to rush before Darvish signs or is returned, as re-adding Texas moves the playing field again.
I enjoy such a high percentage of his moves, he has plenty of leverage with me. He will make a move that will make the Cubs good in 2013 and beyond.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Your probably right...
…and Theo is in no rush here to move Garza (and he shouldn’t be). His public discussion here is basically telling others; “if you want him now, knock my socks off”
You can always keep him for now and trade him at the deadline. If he pitches well (and there is no reason he wouldn’t), there may be a more urgent market for him at the deadline.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I know his...
somewhat cost-controlled years are winding down (likewise his trade value), but I feel like it might be prudent to wait until next offseason to explore an extension. I could be wrong, but I think his value could peak at the trade deadline this year. It wouldn’t surprise me to see more teams interested then, specifically the Red Sox and Yankees.
It’ll be interesting to see when the first long-term contract is given out by Thed.
D98 mistaken, a hyperbole as in a funny or revisionism as in trying to make a new fact to confirm a prejudice
Won't be traded...
…if those packages is what you expect. All of the packages you listed are too much for Garza, which is why he is still on the team.
He’s still not much of a pitcher. He’s more “grip it and rip it” than pitcher. While these guys can be good, they are generally inconsistent and regress quicker. They are never worth as much their previous peaks.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 11, 2012 11:05 PM CST reply actions
A couple of things to quibble with here.
First, Garza may have been a “grip it and rip it” pitcher with the Rays, but he clearly upgraded his approach to pitching this past season — using more of his breaking pitches and less of his fastball. Second, based on his age, he’s heading into his peak now — not coming out of a previous one.
The packages noted above may be too much. I don’t have the minor league expertise to comment on that. But I believe Matt Garza has a lot to offer a contending team right now, and his trade value should reflect that.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I agree.
Garza should bring a nice haul. I just think the ones listed above are too much. Each includes at least 2 extremely highly rated prospects. If he were under team control for more years at reasonable rates, I could be convinced he’s worth those packages. I think he has 2 years left.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 13, 2012 9:00 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, it seems the general consensus is...
…one B+/A- prospect and then two to three lesser-ranked players under that.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Garza will be out of his prime in three years.
When the cubs are looking to win Garza will be at best a number 3. Why would you spend all that money on a third starter for 3 year from now?
No move Garza and hopefully we get a few A pitchers back.
by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Jan 11, 2012 11:42 PM CST reply actions
He will only be 30
I think he can be good till he is 32. He could flame out like Z or Ben Sheets. Or he might have a long career like Schilling and Randy Johnson.
Won't be traded right away...
I think what he said today is a good sign he is starting the season with the Cubs. That is fine by me. We need the depth in the rotation for the start of the season.
We have Six starters.
And that doesn’t include the two NRI starters.
by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Jan 12, 2012 12:37 AM CST up reply actions
And that's exactly what Theo has said
He wants to go 8 or 9 deep in starting pitching. Some of that is obviously AAA talent and/or reclamation projects.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 12, 2012 10:21 AM CST up reply actions
Plus Rusin/Struck.
That’s miles ahead of last year’s AAA options of Diamond, Bibbens-Dirkxx, and Coello.
All 6 have proven the ability to pitch in the majors.
Which is a hell of a lot more than you can say about last year.
An idea for the Garza situation
Is it the worst idea in the world to just see how he does in the first half? Could he perhaps pitch well enough to improve his stock and increase the haul we get for him at the trade deadline(if/when we are out of it)? A contender may be desperate and give us a potential ace. Seems like a viable option or am I overlooking something?
Maybe he blows his arm out and needs Tommy John Surgery.
There is always a gamble when you wait to trade a pitcher.
by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Jan 12, 2012 12:38 AM CST up reply actions
Isn't Garza the one that can't pitch in cold weather?
I’m for trading him now.
♪ He held me very tight under stars so bright and whispered darlin' "Who do you love tonight?" I told him "baseball, baseball...." ♫
arizona...
Garza cant pitch in arizona. i think it was he who said that the ball felt like snot.
So i you can give you can take it.
I believe you're right.
He blamed the weather there too.
♪ He held me very tight under stars so bright and whispered darlin' "Who do you love tonight?" I told him "baseball, baseball...." ♫
considering how well he pitched not in AZ
maybe he was on to something.
He actually threw well in the one regular season game he pitched in Arizona
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We were talking about
♪ He held me very tight under stars so bright and whispered darlin' "Who do you love tonight?" I told him "baseball, baseball...." ♫
by katie casey on Jan 12, 2012 11:52 AM CST up reply actions
Oh, I know that.
Just pointing out that pitching in Arizona worked out for him — eventually.
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Well if he doesn't pitch well there this ST
I’m sure there will be many unhappy Cub fans. I say see how he does. If he has a good first half one never knows how desperate a team can be trade dead line time.
The Stat Pack
by shoemile on Oct 21, 2011 10:10 PM CDT
by Madison Cub Fan on Jan 12, 2012 5:49 PM CST up reply actions
Any newly acquired pitcher might just as well get injured.
This “gamble” is always there with any pitcher, it really hasn’t anything to do with Garza or whether he’s traded.
It’s also a fact that Garza is the best pitcher of the Cubs rotation right now and there’s no indication that anyone we have today is going to ever pass him by. He’s not the youngest anymore but he doesn’t seem likely to fall of a cliff anytime soon. It#s far more likely he really improved last year.
No matter if he’s a #1 or #2 or even #3, is he goes away he needs to be replaced. So the only question of importance is: Can the Cubs trade to get someone better from a trade or someone as good, but cheaper?
At he moment it looks like the answer is no.
by DamageControlFreak on Jan 12, 2012 2:21 AM CST reply actions
They can replace him next year...
when they’ll have loads of money to spend and lots of good pitching options to spend them on. They can have Garza, or they can have the prospects they’d get from trading Garza and another front-line pitcher signed for a similar deal, if not less. I’m basically ok with either, but I want Garza signed to an extension right now if they’re going to keep him… either way, actually.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Jan 12, 2012 3:23 PM CST up reply actions
Really don't want Montero
We have enough catchers already, and Montero is basically just a bat that they have to squeeze into the lineup somewhere. If we deal with the Yanks, I want Betances and Banuelos, not a DH.
And with the focus on defense
I don’t think Theo/Jed want Montero either.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
Though he is a valuable commodity.
I’d imagine they could quickly flip Montero (to an AL team or a NL team willing to give him a try at C or 1B) for a fairly sizable return of something they do want (most likely pitching… but perhaps a 3B).
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Good grief.
I am getting awfully tired of this:
…nor do I think they’ll be spending big next year in free agency either.
Evidence, please.
This is going on in the “Open Letter” thread, too, so let me make it really, really simple. And, apologies for ‘shouting’.
THEO EPSTEIN DID NOT COME TO CHICAGO TO CONSISTENTLY RUN A $100M PAYROLL.
There is absolutely no logical reason to believe the Cubs won’t spend/splurge once they’ve got enough of the foundation built. And, yes, that could come as early as next off-season when a number of high quality SPs may be on the market.
Despite what a couple of posters who are foreshadowing the baseball Apocalypse believe, the Cubs are not becoming the Pirates.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
by fsuapollo on Jan 12, 2012 9:03 AM CST reply actions 7 recs
Are you trying to tell me
That you don’t hang the crystal chandelier before the foundation is poured??
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 12, 2012 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
I've stopped arguing with people who insist that.
The Cubs are spending more in many different ways. The fact that they did not go out and sign Carlos Beltran to a 3 year, $40 million dollar no-trade contract does not mean the Cubs want to be Pittsburgh West.
The people who say that are probably the same people who supported Jim Hendry to the end. After all, the Cubs were just one more Jim Hendry veteran contract away from the World Series. If only Theo and Jed would have seen that then the Cubs could have been World Series bound in 2012.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
by rlpete on Jan 12, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
True statements.
But when you see folks who are pissed that the Cubs aren’t doing things the Hendry way any longer, you know the team is headed in the right direction. It’s nice that we’re no longer the ones bitching about the way this team operates.
DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.
If you weren't my son I'd hug you
For some fans, Kerry Wood is that dollap of pumpkin paste.
by Nunyabidness on Jan 12, 2012 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
I'm so excited to NOT have to rail against front office moves.
It’s also fun (and believe me, I mean this in only the most positive and happy sense) that, exactly as predicted, Al has continued to vociferously support the Cubs’ front office at all points during this essentially 180-degree change in philosophy.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
hard to figure why some insist on repeating that whopper
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 13, 2012 7:36 AM CST up reply actions
Well said...
…we all remember the story of the “three little pigs”, right?
Theo is trying to build the brick house, that won’t get blown away when the first storm comes along. That takes time, some of which will be clearing away the straw from the previous house the organization built.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Who's the big bad wolf?
Maybe Zambrano.
But only if you put a gatorade cooler in the house…
Im sorry
I used awful wording, what I ment is that I don’t think they’ll go on a all out spending spree like they did in the 06-07 offseason. I wouldn’t be suprised if they went out and got a Zack Grienke and another good player.
And as I noted
my apologies if it seemed like I was slapping you down.
There just seems to be a small segment of the BCB population that, for some reason, thinks the Cubs “thriftiness” this off-season means they’ll never spend money again.
So I guess I wanted to “correct” that, if that was your perception, as well. Glad to know it isn’t… though I don’t see Greinke as the best fit, given his anxiety issues.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
By the way I actually think the Cubs will spend this year..
on Soler and I really wouldn’t be suprised if the Cubs ship off Soriano and then sign Cespedes.
That would surprise me, actually.
Soler and Cespedes are both interesting to me, but I can’t see the Cubs signing either one.
If only it were so easy to just “ship off” Soriano.
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Why would the Cubs NOT sign Soler?
He’d be a top 25 prospect and following this year, international spending will severely limit their ability to pay big $ for international FA.
Not sure where Al got that, either.
I would almost guarantee the FO makes at least a small push for Soler. Makes too much sense.
Really?
Because the way I see it is that the Cubs would acquire a top 50 outfield prospect in Soler, which is a long term asset and/or Cespedes who is only 26. Your right Soriano would be difficult to trade, at this point it’s how much money the Cubs want to eat.
by B.Bruce on Jan 13, 2012 3:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Could you expand on why you "can't see the Cubs signing either one"?
As others have said… I think it makes a lot of sense.
So I’d be interested if your take is just gut feeling or something more.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Gut feeling.
You guys could be right. We’ll see.
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Fair enough.
I guess I figure Theo/Jed would spend some $ this offseason (and, obviously, I am not in the “they are being cheap” camp). Particularly with the cap on international signings coming, I thought the Cuban OFs might be solid targets.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right, either.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Soler fits perfectly into the time frame of us being competitive.
He could possibly be ready to replace Dejesus in 2014, and they definitely have the money if they think Soler is worth it.
yeah i agree with you guys.
while these guys are terrific and doing the right things i feel, i still have this feeling that they are itching to make a big splash. Rizzo is up there, but if they land one of Cespedes and Soler, i think that will appease the appetitie. gut feeling also but i think they get one of them.
I'll take...
the deal with Sanchez… especially if it comes with trading Soto for value. Castillo and Clevenger can handle the catching until he’s ready. I really like Sanchez.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
I'm down with a trade but
for this next season I would like to see at least one really good pitching performance a week for the Cubs. Nut I am down with the future of this team getting better.
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