Not a ton of new content, but a bevy of Cubs' nuggets from Keith Law

To sum...

He likes Rizzo for Cashner.

In fact, he's liked all the Cub offseason moves, making note to add Stewart to a questioners list of win/loss evaluations on Marshall, Z, Rizzo.

Named Vitters as one of the most disappointing prospects of recent years. Though he (nominally) likes Vitters' chances of taking more pitches better than Jackson's chances of making more contact.

Turner for Garza = not enough.
Turner and Castellanos for Garza = too much.
Another Tiger "offer" without Turner or Castellanos was panned as far too little.

Doesn't believe Garza will definitely be traded.

He prospect rankings will be out early February.

Again... not a ton of new info. And I know lots of fans don't think a lot of Law and/or his snark.

But he fielded several Cub related questions in yesterday's chat... so I thought it worthy of passing along. So... discuss.

5 months ago fsuapollo 45 comments 0 recs |

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My own personal Garzameter (say that out loud)...

…has fallen back to reading 50/50 at the moment. The needle was pushing 90 that he’d be traded a few days back — especially after the Maholm signing. But now I’m just not sure what’s going on. I’d still like to get Turner but would agree with Law that a one-for-one deal for Garza would be too little.

"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach

by daver on Jan 13, 2012 1:21 PM CST reply actions

I believe Garza will start the season with the Cubs.

In fact, he’s the likely Opening Day starter — probably against the Nats’ Stephen Strasburg.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 13, 2012 2:02 PM CST up reply actions

With our current offensive lineup

I’m glad Strasburg will probably be on a pitch count, or a 20 K performance wouldn’t be out of the question.

by Mulhollandmania on Jan 13, 2012 2:35 PM CST up reply actions

If he can somehow last 6-2/3 IP then 20Ks is likely

I'm wet nurse to a last-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!

by Eisman57 on Jan 13, 2012 8:25 PM CST up reply actions

That's why I said I'm glad he'd be on a pitch count because it's Opening Day

by Mulhollandmania on Jan 13, 2012 11:42 PM CST up reply actions

You may be right.

In fact, ESPN’s Jayson Stark is now predicting that the Cubs will keep Garza to see if they can get some better offers at the trade deadline. That may actually work out for the better.

"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach

by daver on Jan 13, 2012 3:42 PM CST up reply actions

There's got to be some sort of trivia question here; hasn't Zambrano started like 5 or 6 straight opening days?

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jan 13, 2012 3:55 PM CST up reply actions

Dempster started last year because Quade decided Z couldn't deal with the emotional heft of being the opening day starter.

DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.

by shoemile on Jan 13, 2012 5:00 PM CST up reply actions

see, quade wasn't always wrong

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Jan 13, 2012 5:09 PM CST up reply actions

Let us only remember his good moves.

So there was that and….well, whatever.

DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.

by shoemile on Jan 13, 2012 5:24 PM CST up reply actions

he gave barney the starting job over Franchise

seems all of his good moves came before the season even; how odd

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Jan 13, 2012 5:54 PM CST up reply actions

*even began

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Jan 13, 2012 5:54 PM CST up reply actions

That's true!

Solid move, Mike.

DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.

by shoemile on Jan 13, 2012 6:23 PM CST up reply actions

I'm drinking whisky.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jan 13, 2012 8:00 PM CST up reply actions

...

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Jan 13, 2012 8:08 PM CST up reply actions

Keep it up

DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.

by shoemile on Jan 13, 2012 9:04 PM CST up reply actions

CLASS THREE

HERE WE COME

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jan 13, 2012 9:22 PM CST up reply actions

Goddamnit.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jan 13, 2012 9:23 PM CST up reply actions

Could be.

But I would think Jordan Zimmermann might get the start on seniority and to keep “pressure” off Strasburg.

If I had to guess… I’d say they would start Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Strasburg. That said, I wouldn’t really be surprised by those three in any order.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 13, 2012 4:17 PM CST up reply actions

I'd like to see

Garza at #2. Although he is obviously the best pitcher we have, I would like to see him face “easier” #2 pitchers. I read an article (no link – sorry – it was a while ago) that said the #1 pitchers surprisingly match up against other #1’s very often. You would think with schedules being different and different off days that you would lose those matchups after the first week or two, but this article claimed it happened more than a few times.
So, even though “Wins” is not a great stat to the purist/stat folks, it does carry a lot of weight with the average fan. I think any pitcher going up against other teams’ #1’s will statistically get fewer chances at a “win”, so that is my long winded reason I’d like him to slide down the line. Let him rack up about 9-10 wins by July and then get some nice prospects back. Too much to dream???

by shoebox76 on Jan 13, 2012 4:37 PM CST up reply actions

you do realize that after just one off day/rain out the whole 1 v 1 thing flies out the window right?

by AzCubfan24 on Jan 13, 2012 5:29 PM CST up reply actions

He's saying that the study showed what you describe isn't the case

and the top pitchers do tend to face each other more than randomness would predict.

by cubzfan on Jan 14, 2012 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

why not put him in the 5th spot then?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 13, 2012 6:56 PM CST up reply actions

Strasburg will be on an innings cap.

I assume he won’t be the opening starter so they can use him longer into the season.

就是今年！

by CubFanInChina on Jan 13, 2012 4:59 PM CST up reply actions

Why would the Nats not want to use their best starting pitcher on Opening Day?

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by Al Yellon on Jan 14, 2012 7:58 AM CST up reply actions

The Nationals can be real contenders this year.

If he is their opening day starter he will reach his innings cap in the quickest way possible. If he is the 4 or 5 starter he can pitch until deeper in the season.

Also, they might want him to pitch their first home game.

就是今年！

by CubFanInChina on Jan 14, 2012 6:22 PM CST up reply actions

I don't think you're thinking this through...

If he has an innings cap, it doesn’t matter if he’s the opening day starter or the 4/5 starter – he’s gonna start (and thus impact) the same number of games. A win in April counts the same as a win in September.

Now, if he does have an innings cap, and you want to maximize the number of his starts so that he can help his team as deep into the season as possible, then what you would want to do is reduce his innings per start. IOW, take him out after six strong innings instead of eight or even a CG. Do that four times and (in theory) you can squeeze out another start.

Of course you also run the risk of having your bullpen blow a win or two. It’s a tricky thing to keep in balance.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 14, 2012 8:19 PM CST up reply actions

With Pineda last year the M's did both.

They did limit his innings per start but also skipped starts and Pineda pitched into mid-September. He was either their fourth or fifth starter (can’t remember which). I can see the Nats handling Strasburg in the same way.

就是今年！

by CubFanInChina on Jan 14, 2012 8:56 PM CST up reply actions

It doesn't matter which starter he is.

Make no mistake, Pineda was their number two last year, just got skipped around to keep innings off here and there. The order of the rotation is one of the most overrated aspects in the game.

by Dcr18 on Jan 14, 2012 9:13 PM CST up reply actions

Completely agree.

In the same way Strasburg will be the Nats number one starter…no matter when his turn first comes up in the rotation. I just wouldn’t make him the opening day starter. I would bump him further down in the rotation where there is more opportunity to stretch his starts out over the duration of the season.

就是今年！

by CubFanInChina on Jan 14, 2012 10:44 PM CST up reply actions

I think a few teams in the AL

will look at those Yankee moves yesterday, and start to re-consider their own ability to contend next season without an upgrade.

I’ll put my money right now on a trade.

by Damen Jackson on Jan 14, 2012 8:50 AM CST up reply actions

Garza for Turner and Castellanos

is the only trade I’d be happy with, other than that, give the man his extension and let’s move on with the build/rebuild.

In Theo and Jed I Trust

by KJ24 on Jan 13, 2012 1:29 PM CST reply actions

I'm fine with Turner and Smyly.

by bdlugz on Jan 13, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

I am too

I kind of prefer that to Turner and Castellanos, to be honest.

by Mulhollandmania on Jan 13, 2012 2:36 PM CST up reply actions

Same

by Ryno G on Jan 13, 2012 10:59 PM CST up reply actions

Exactly!

We’re not in the business of trades that are good for both sides. For a hurler like Garza, the trade has to me really lopsided. We should fancy ourselves pickpockets.

~Ronald Reagan has held the two most demeaning jobs in the country; President of the United States and radio broadcaster for the Chicago Cubs~ George F. Will

by unretrofied93 on Jan 13, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions

Um, ok...

… and they’re not in the business of trades that are good for the other side but crappy for them.

by dmlichte on Jan 13, 2012 3:38 PM CST up reply actions

Problem is...

…an approach like this may very well result in other GMs walking away from the table.

"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach

by daver on Jan 13, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions

Let em walk

then we keep an excellent pitcher. It’s obvious we want him to stick around but for a team like the Tigers that needs that 1 missing link to go all the way, we hold all the chips. So we either get an overwhelming offer, or (hopefully) extend the man.

~Ronald Reagan has held the two most demeaning jobs in the country; President of the United States and radio broadcaster for the Chicago Cubs~ George F. Will

by unretrofied93 on Jan 13, 2012 4:27 PM CST up reply actions

I couldn't agree more with this line of thinking

As Theo said, the Cubs don’t really need to do anything with Garza. He has 2 more arbitration years before he is an FA. I’d rather the Cubs keep him unless they are literally blown away by a trade offer. I think better offers will be available at the trade deadline anyways……

by magicblue on Jan 14, 2012 1:15 PM CST up reply actions