Possible Draft Strategy

by portlandcubfan on Jan 15, 2012 5:59 PM CST

I've been thinking of how the Cubs can maximize draft picks under the new labor agreement. It seems like if there was going to be a very strong draft class, like in 2011, followed by a weaker class the following year (not a sure thing to foresee), that it would be worth spending over the limit and losing some picks the following year.

I would think that the opportunity to sign an extra 3-5 top tier guys, like the Cubs did in 2011, would be worth losing some picks the following year so long as it was looking like a weaker class. The money spent in taxes and larger bonuses one year could be made up the following year by the probable poor draft. This last year was a good example of how this strategy could play out. So far (though very early), the 2012 class doesn't even compare to the 2011 class. Perhaps this is how the Cubs can maximize the draft like Epstein did in Boston. Thoughts?

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The problem with this

is that it’s very difficult to project whether a draft is going to be strong or weak a year in advance. Sure, these players are scouted more than a year in advance, but evaluations can change rapidly on 17 and 18 year old kids. Even on college players.

Now if you get a chance to sign a Bryce Harper or a Stephen Strasburg, sure, blow a draft pick if you have to. But those guys are rare, even if the Nationals got them in back-to-back seasons.

I think what Epstein said is true. You’re just going to have to out-scout everyone.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 15, 2012 6:50 PM CST reply actions

Out-scout them... and out-develop them.

I’m sure there is a sizable % of major-league caliber talent in every organization that just doesn’t develop enough to realize their potential. Cubs have to do better than their counterparts.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)

by SackMan on Jan 15, 2012 10:13 PM CST up reply actions

It would be nice if they start doing better than they have done in the past

I think that a big part of the farm system problem is poor player development.

by ClarkFan on Jan 15, 2012 10:50 PM CST up reply actions

I think that changes in March.

I’m half-tempted to float how the training is ‘different’ this year.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 16, 2012 5:28 AM CST up reply actions

I can't make Mesa - it would be interesting to read observations on the changes

by ClarkFan on Jan 16, 2012 9:36 AM CST up reply actions

The other problem with this

…is that highly-regarded, hard-to-sign draft picks aren’t going to fall in the draft as much as they used to, since those draft picks no longer have any leverage.

by Wreckard on Jan 17, 2012 12:13 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed. I think this definitely affects the draft order.

With the new rules, there’s virtually no reason I can see to pick a guy from the 11th round on who has any “signability” questions. There’s just no point to drafting a Dillon Maples in the 14th, knowing you’re going to have to shell out 7 figures to get him… and thereby forfeiting picks.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 17, 2012 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

Unless you got guys in the first 10 rounds you KNOW will sign under slot

I doubt this will happen without Hayden Simpson-esque picks, though. If you are picking late in each round, it might make some sense to do that. Just estimating the slot bonuses for the 30th picks would be:

Round 1 – $1.5 million
Round 2 – $750K
Round 3 – $550K
Round 4 – $450K
Round 5 – $400K
Round 6 – $300K
Round 7 – $250K
Round 8 – $200K
Round 9 – $150K
Round 10 – $150K

Take a college senior targeted for the supplemental 1st/2nd round with the 1st round pick. Someone like Bryce Brentz. Sign him for $1 million. Take another college senior that is a 3rd round talent in the 2nd round and sign him for $500K. That gives the team an additional $750K to go overslot on the 11th round if they want. More likely, though, is that the 3rd round pick would be the one that is the high upside guy. The team would essentially be able to offer $1.3 million to a high upside guy in the 3rd round. That would at least make a guy think about going pro, whereas $550K likely isn’t enough to get most of them to forego school.

by RynoRooter on Jan 17, 2012 12:42 PM CST up reply actions

OK I could see that play out

But I guess I would hope the Cubs would largely avoid the “easy sign” picks for the purpose of saving money to try and woo a guy in the 3rd round or beyond.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 17, 2012 12:47 PM CST up reply actions

Depending on where they pick, I most definately agree

Can’t do it with the #6 pick. But the talent available at #30 might not honestly be that far off from that of #60 in many drafts. If you can get a fairly comparable player, while still picking up that additional draft cap room, it would make a lot of sense.

by RynoRooter on Jan 17, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions

That works.

And I know it is early… but so far it seems like this might be that kind of draft.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 17, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions

Here's hoping we find out what drafting at #30 looks like very soon.

by bdlugz on Jan 17, 2012 4:18 PM CST up reply actions

I will be very interested to see

how Agents plat this one out. They probably won’t make much money after Round 10. Though I wouldn’t be surprised to see some guys after Round 10 sign immediately with ‘Mini Max’ bonuses. (A penny short of the threshhold)

Also, there will bu huge value in signing a decent reach in the 4th Rd for 9th Rd money.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 15, 2012 8:32 PM CST reply actions

How, exactly, is the rule enforced?

If you go nuts on an 11th round pick, does that affect your 11th round pick next year? Or does it punish your whole budget, and/or an earlier round pick?

DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.

by shoemile on Jan 16, 2012 2:08 AM CST reply actions

If you go over the amount (10 K, I think)

the money counts in addition to your valoue for the Top Ten Rounds. A Dillon Maples signing in 2011 (Well over a million for a 14th Round Pick) would probably cost us our Top Two Picks in the next season.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 16, 2012 5:31 AM CST up reply actions

This is correct, but I thought the bonus for 11-50 was 6 figures, not 5?

by bdlugz on Jan 16, 2012 8:12 AM CST up reply actions

Is it 100 K?

I couldn’t remember. I could see Theo offering $99,999.99 to some kids.

I think it’s down to 40 rounds, though.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 16, 2012 8:31 AM CST up reply actions

all we need are a few wealthy Cubs alumni boosters to make up the difference

hey – works for colleges, why not MLB?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 16, 2012 8:47 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

It may be down to 40... I've given up trying to figure out the new draft just now.

What would prevent teams from doing like the did with Szczur and restructuring a contract shortly after they join the team?

by bdlugz on Jan 16, 2012 9:24 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

You can offer anyone drafted after the tenth round 100k

and that’s it. You can’t store that money up either by signing ten guys for 10K and then offering $900k to an eleventh guy either. $100k is the limit for anyone drafted after the tenth round without incurring penalties.

Now in the first ten rounds, you can sign players for under market and then use the savings on another player. But if you fail to sign a player, your budget drops by the recommended amount for that slot.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 16, 2012 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

As I understand it,

Each pick will have a ‘value’ assigned to it. If you fail to sign a player in that position, you lose that ‘value’ as well. If a team has (for instance) 12 selections in the first ten rounds, the amount of those ‘values’ is the expected amount you can spend on those picks.

If you spend anything 100 K (or over) on anyone after Round 11, that Bonus is added to the amount you spent in the first ten rounds.

If you spend a penny over that amount, you disqualify yourself from receiving ‘bonus picks’ after Round Two. If you go over by a certain number, you lose your first and/or second picks in the next draft. I think The Commish has threatened additional sanctions for ‘gaming’ the system, but I’m not sure on how that would be determined.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 16, 2012 3:39 PM CST up reply actions

If there is any justice in the world, Bud will have to monitor and administer this process all by himself

I want him up late at night, wearing one of those accountant visors, muttering to himself, punching all those keys on the adding machine, trying to figure out which teams are over, which teams still have room, etc.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 16, 2012 4:19 PM CST up reply actions

That is a ridiculous

system that seems borderline unconstitutional. The amateur players should start their own union (which would be logisiticaly impossible, I know) because they clearly weren’t represented by the players union.

by tomas21 on Jan 16, 2012 10:30 PM CST up reply actions

How about this idea

Going off ballhawk’s joke about college programs.

You offer the limit in cash, but then develop perqs to make your minor league system more attractive to young men than other systems. Everybody gets to check out cars from the carpool, which just happens to have the latest hot vehicles. Top-end gaming systems in every room at the AZ training complex. Team-provided clothing. Etc. And I’m staying away from the more salacious stuff. Would it work?

by cubzfan on Jan 16, 2012 9:28 AM CST reply actions

Someone in the Cubs front office is laughing.

I’m not sure what’s allowed.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 16, 2012 9:34 AM CST up reply actions

Fans line up to buy their minor league jerseys from them....

by ClarkFan on Jan 16, 2012 9:37 AM CST up reply actions

What?

The Cubs just give said player normal bonus less $1000 and 1000 Cubs stamped baseballs worth $1.00 each from Cubs. In one year, He sells them back for $1000 each! Amazing value on those collectors item baseballs.

by ubercubsfan on Jan 16, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions

If he signed them, wonder if that would work around the whole thing.

by ubercubsfan on Jan 16, 2012 11:19 AM CST up reply actions

Gosh

Now you’re all thinking like an AD at an SEC school.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 16, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

I don't think it would

It would probably be allowed, I guess, as long as the players didn’t get to keep those cars and stuff. But if they didn’t get to keep them, what good would they be to them? It’s not like minor leaguers have a lot of free time during the season to drive around in hot cars and play video games nor, frankly, would you want you minor leaguers doing that. In fact, giving a bunch of 18 year olds all that gear sounds like a recipe for trouble.

Secondly, I’m not sure it would encourage players to sign if they didn’t get to keep the stuff. If the money’s not right, I’m not sure a free loaner car would really change a lot of minds.

Having said that, I think teams could do a few things to make the lives of these minor leaguers a little easier. Buying some of the minor league affiliates a real luxury bus would be one thing.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 16, 2012 12:30 PM CST up reply actions

Ummm...you don't think minor leaguers spend a lot of time on video games?

They are 18-22 year old males whose job involves them living in a city where they don’t know anyone and staying in hotels every other week. I would guess they play video games at least as much as the average college student, which is several hours a week. It’s not like they watch TV at that age.

by cubzfan on Jan 16, 2012 1:13 PM CST up reply actions

I would think

a loaner car would seem really, really cool to kids who may have never had their own car before. But I agree, it opens up a whole bunch of potential problems, not the least of which is mixing guys who haven’t driven before with guys who haven’t drank much alcohol before.

by tomas21 on Jan 16, 2012 10:32 PM CST up reply actions

Sure they do

But I don’t know that I want to set them up in some sort of video palace. That’s all I was saying. Otherwise, I don’t know how what you’re suggesting is different than what they already have.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 16, 2012 1:48 PM CST reply actions

Reply fail

Obviously

by Josh Timmers on Jan 16, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions

I am ignorant of the current state of gameage at minor leaguers' habitations

and it may not matter if they still have mostly dial-up in Boise (I keed, I keed).

by cubzfan on Jan 16, 2012 6:35 PM CST up reply actions

Boise players live with local families

After that, the players are on their own.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 16, 2012 8:08 PM CST up reply actions

I thought some of the other lower minor leagues

… also have host families. Doesn’t the Midwest League do that?

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by Al Yellon on Jan 16, 2012 8:27 PM CST up reply actions

Kane County used to - and they still might.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 16, 2012 8:38 PM CST up reply actions

Really? That would be really interesting.

I’m a few miles from the park, but I’d definitely have done something like that before we had our son.

by bdlugz on Jan 16, 2012 9:19 PM CST up reply actions

I'll have to check that

Some teams higher than SS A do have host families. I didn’t think Peoria did but maybe they do.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 16, 2012 11:11 PM CST up reply actions

The draft is inherently a massive crapshoot

Even the surest of prospects don’t always pan out like you would hope. My only hope is that with good scouting and proper development, the farm system will see a turnaround.

RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010) and Ron Santo (February 25, 1940-December 2, 2010).
If you disagree with me in any way, you are wrong.

by Ace Venom on Jan 17, 2012 12:20 PM CST reply actions

Kinda

scanned through here, and people (not just here) keep talking about the Cubs (cause of Theo + the Cubs fairly deep pockets) being the prime candidate to ignore the spending ‘limits.’ I agree.

The original poster suggested trying to evaluate classes and spending big on strong classes. Another poster rightfully pointed out that it’s hard to gauge classes so far in advance (the 1 year period between classes).

I’d propose who cares about first round picks. Enough talent will fall for the Cubs to do without 1st round picks and just spend big every year. Basically, it would just double the price of players once the Cubs would pass the limit. The only exception is when the Cubs draft in the top 5 or so picks, which could happen in 2013 (if they trade Garza, which I think they should), but once they start drafting in the teens or twenties, it won’t matter much.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 17, 2012 5:07 PM CST reply actions

That's what I was thinking

Some of the multi-sport athletes that would take some bigger money to sign that are considered “tough signs” could be lured if we’re willing to lose a couple picks the following year (supposing the following class looks weak). Hopefully in the long term we’d only beginning up the late 20’s number picks.

by portlandcubfan on Jan 17, 2012 8:53 PM CST up reply actions

I wouldn't put it past Theo

to negotiate rather tightly, and angle for the bonus picks available to teams that don’t overspend. There is also one angle I’ve thought of that I haven’t printed. Why? Other teams find out what’s written here also.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 17, 2012 10:38 PM CST up reply actions

You'd

actually be surprised. Over at Bucsdugout, we know for a fact that Neal Huntington reads the site and other blogs on occasion. At least he has publicly said that. I guess he could be lying.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 17, 2012 11:33 PM CST up reply actions

We get read.

By somebody. What is appropriate gets forwarded.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 17, 2012 11:43 PM CST up reply actions

HI THEO

DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.

by shoemile on Jan 18, 2012 1:48 AM CST up reply actions

lol

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 18, 2012 2:24 AM CST up reply actions

It's pretty hard to tell a year out what the draft class will be like

Or where your team will draft next season. Do you think the Diamondbacks thought they’d have the 2011 season they’d have at the start of the season? Probably not. That would be a big factor in this strategy. Teams are going to have to invest more in scouting and analytics and hope they put enough people in the right place at the right time to find the right players.

by subtle on Jan 18, 2012 7:08 AM CST via mobile reply actions

True,

But you do have a good feeling for the season by the time the draft comes. If you’re playing well, it might be worth the risk. Obviously if you’re 15 games out by June, it’s probably time to retool, barring a miracle.
I’m betting the Diamondbacks had a good feeling by June where their season was headed.

by portlandcubfan on Jan 18, 2012 11:32 AM CST up reply actions