Theo Compensation Prediction Contest
by Ross on Jan 18, 2012 6:59 PM CST
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PrintAs you already know, Uncle Bud Selig is ready to step in and make the decision on what compensation the Cubs will owe the Red Sox for hiring away the GM that they wanted to fire. So now it's time to put your prediction on the table: Who is going to Boston? Who will Uncle Bud screw more, the Red Sox or the Cubs?
Let your opinion be heard! No prize, because I don't have any Cubs paraphernalia that you don't already have or would really want.
As for my prediction, I am going to throw out a two-for: Rebel Riding and Junior Lake will go to the Red Sox.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I know Lake will be a popular pick.
So I’ll say Logan Watkins and possibly someone like Yao Lin Wang.
This was what mine was going to be
I’ll switch it up and say Dolis and $1.5 million.
Richard Jones and Aaron Kurcz
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Randy Wells
I know, they said it wouldn’t be a MLB player. It’s still my guess.
Not a chance.
It won’t be a major league player.
I say it’s Junior Lake, with maybe another lesser player thrown in.
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Rizzo, Baez, Vitters and Szczur
"For small creatures such as we the vastness is bearable only through love." Carl Sagan
I was being facetious (to a point)
I forgot to use the facetious font. I don’t really think Bud would give the Red Sox those three players in compensation for Theo, but I do think that Bud will side with the Red Sox and give them a player the Cubs don’t want to lose. IIRC Bud granted ownership of the Red Sox to John Henry even though there were higher bidders. So, Bud has some history with John Henry. While I don’t think that Bud would give the Red Sox Josh Vitters (because he was a former #1 pick and he’s still only 22), I can see Bud giving the Red Sox some combination of Trey McNutt, Matt Szczur, Rafael Dolis or Chris Carpenter. These are all top-ten prospects for the Cubs and they weren’t #1 draft picks. I can see Bud telling the Red Sox to pick two of the four.
I can't see more than one player going to Boston.
The Andy MacPhail compensation case is some precedent for this.
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Josh Vitters
Straight up.
I'm wet nurse to a last-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!
If they want a major league player, they're welcome to Alfonso Soriano.
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This is a good suggestion.
"Hey Hey, Holy mackerel, no doubt about it,!"
by scottsdalecubs on Jan 18, 2012 10:29 PM CST up reply actions
I will say Chris Carpenter
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
by davidalanu on Jan 18, 2012 9:30 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
the rights to Micah Hoffpauire
and a Bobby Scales Signed Bobble Head
Q: Why did Theo Epstein cross the road?
A: To Dump Garza
One of the two back up catchers
Beef Cake or Clevenger
by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Jan 18, 2012 10:51 PM CST reply actions
This is my pick too.
And maybe some cash, I think it is already done with the exception of which one, why else pick up Jaramillo? Selig will happily screw the Cubs if he gets the chance.
Here's what I don't get
(and apologies if this has already been discussed ad nauseum, I haven’t seen it), but Theo left his prior job as a “general manager” to become “president” of the Cubs. That is a promotion, and it was my understanding that it is common practice for teams to let coaches or executives leave their job so long as they were being “promoted”. Now, I get that they don’t have to let them go, but I thought that was generally the way it worked.
So couldn’t it be that Theo and co. (who are obviously extremely savvy people), are trying to really lowball the Red Sox (rightfully) due to the fact that most of the time, compensation isn’t given AT ALL in these types of cases?
Therefore, if Selig was planning on settling this by looking at past instances, he couldn’t for example, go back and see what the Cubs gave up for Andy Macphail, and use that, because it’s a very different situation. Macphail left his position as a gm to be a gm for another team. He was not promoted.
So I guess what I’m asking is: Are there any other examples in baseball history, where a trade was made between two teams for an front office person, when the person being traded was getting a promotion? Because won’t that be the way that Selig gauges things? And wouldn’t that also give us the best clue as to what the compensation will actually be?
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
This will set a precedent
Teams usually let people interview for upgrades, but Theo still had a year on his contract.
People will refer back to this one. I’m guessing Bud wants to keep the compensation minor, but not without some value.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Agree with this.
There’s no way Bud wants to set a precedent with major league players changing hands in a situation like this.
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Which is why I believe the Cubs have the upper hand in this.
The best husband in the world is going to the 2012 Randy Hundley Cubs Fantasy camp!
Let me tell you something.
A man without hand is not a man. I’ve got so much hand I’m coming out of my gloves.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jan 19, 2012 9:47 AM CST up reply actions
Macphail
Was the Twins GM and the Cubs “President and CEO” when he came over in ’94. Macphail is about as close as you can get as precedent.
Or when Billy Beane was going to go to Boston
The rumored compensation was Kevin Youkalis.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 19, 2012 9:06 AM CST up reply actions
But Youkilis was drafted in 2001, wasn't proven at all and wasn't even a top 100 prospect in 2002.
He didn’t make top prospect lists (low 90s) until 2003.
Right
The original Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game was published in 2003 and chronicles the 2002 season. Youkilis is a significant character in the book. And I think the Beane-to-Boston chatter was between the 2002 and 2003 seasons.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 19, 2012 10:08 AM CST up reply actions
Youk was a part of that because Beane really wanted to draft him, but Boston took him in the 9th round or something right ahead of where Beane was going to.
It was between the 2002-2003 years, and let’s just say he was a 95th ranked prospect.
The A’s had actual leverage because Beane hadn’t started a job with the Red Sox already. Also, the “trade” never occurred, so obviously the Red Sox felt the asking price was too high.
The deal didn't happen because Beane backed out of going to Boston
But Youkilis was the agreed upon compensation, as documented in the latter Moneball edition.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 19, 2012 10:29 AM CST up reply actions
Fair enough, but regardless, as it didn't happen it can't really be used as an example of justifiable compensation by Selig, IMO.
I haven’t read or seen moneyball yet, so I’m behind on the Beane knowledge compared to many, I’m sure.
It's a good read about baseball and business
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 19, 2012 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah
and it was told in a way that even a numbskull like me was able to understand it.
The best husband in the world is going to the 2012 Randy Hundley Cubs Fantasy camp!
by katie casey on Jan 19, 2012 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
Problem is I have a 7 month old at home, so my ability to do much of anything personal is zilch.
I’m excited, I have a flight on Monday and the movie on American is actually Moneyball – I’ll definitely be watching that one and hopefully get to pick up the book soon.
Moneyball was one of the worst
movies I have ever seen. Sorry
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
a movie with a climax
based around a 20 game win streak and no mention of the starting pitching and a misplaced Jonah Hill. He should go back to making fart jokes on a Judd Apatow movie.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
Congrats on the baby
Just put Moneyball under your babies head during nap time. You’ll have a baseball genius in by age 3.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 19, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions
Really?
For some reason I thought when he first came he was gm, then they moved him up to president later on. Not sure why I thought that
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 19, 2012 3:09 PM CST up reply actions
My source is
Wikipedia. Take it for what it’s worth.
There was compensation for Andy MacPhail
when he left as GM for the Twins for Team President of the Cubs.
And Andy MacPhail didn’t become GM of the Cubs. He hired Ed Lynch to be GM.
by Josh Timmers on Jan 19, 2012 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
If this is directed at me...
I didn’t mean to suggest that there wasn’t compensation for MacPhail. There most certainly was. I believe it was a single-A level player who no one had really heard of before, and never really amounted to anything.
The precedent for cases like this isn’t no compensation, but rather not much compensation.
Hector Trinidad was the compensation.
At the time he was 19 and had just come off a pretty good year at Daytona, and had been promoted to Orlando (then the Double A team). He was considered to be a pretty good prospect at the time; not a top prospect, but someone who most thought would make the major leagues.
Didn’t happen. Doesn’t mean it wasn’t thought of as fairly significant compensation at the time.
The Cubs could be made to give up Trey McNutt and he could “never really amount to anything”. Or give up someone “no one had never really heard of” who could become a major league star.
It’s an inexact science.
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Not to belabor the point
but I understand that Trinidad was the 30th-ranked Cubs prospect at the time of that deal. I would not consider that a “pretty good prospect”. And I really wouldn’t consider McNutt and Trinidad to be comparable in perceived worth. Just sayin’.
by Damen Jackson on Jan 20, 2012 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
Fair enough.
I had thought Trinidad was ranked higher. In any case, this would seem to be precedent for someone NOT all that good to be sent as compensation.
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Austin Kirk and someone else
"For small creatures such as we the vastness is bearable only through love." Carl Sagan
That would break my heart.
I saw him play in Peoria and he was awesome.
The best husband in the world is going to the 2012 Randy Hundley Cubs Fantasy camp!
Ahh... if only life would imitate art...
Commissioner Bud Selig: I want your answer and the money by noon tomorrow. And one more thing. Don’t you contact me again, ever. From now on, you deal with Manfred.
Thomas Ricketts: Commissioner? You can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing. Not even the fee for Theo’s moving expenses, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Jan 19, 2012 7:20 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
people are too high
players between 18-30, a pair
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Actually, that could be done
rather equitably. Pick a prospect list to 30. Ben picks 5 from the list, 18-30. Theo eliminates 2. Ben takes the 2 he wants of the remaining 3.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
I hope you are wrong about Junior Lake and Rebel Riding
because those are two of the coolest baseball names I ever heard.
My guess-Castillo.
The best husband in the world is going to the 2012 Randy Hundley Cubs Fantasy camp!
You make Rock Shoulders sad.
Also Rougned Odor, Smerling Valero Lantigula, Rowdy Hardy, and Zelous Wheeler.
I can hardly wait for these guys to (hopefully) make the majors.
The Red Sox need to shut up.
The more I’ve thought about this situation, the more it pisses me off.
Clearly Theo was going to leave. The Red Sox clearly didn’t want a lame duck GM that they knew would be leaving in a year regardless. Theo is offered a PROMOTION and is allowed to leave. This is where the Red Sox screwed themselves. They have no leverage and if Bud gives them anyone decent, I’m going to throw a fit. It’s not the Cubs fault the Red Sox f’ed up and it’s not Bud’s job to correct their mistake.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
But Sawks fans say
they’re entitled.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Actually from lurking...
…on Sox blogs, most fans understand they don’t deserve anything. Most blame Lucchino for letting Theo go before compensation was decided upon. This, I think, is the crux of the problem for them. Once they let Theo go, they weren’t going to get anything of value. The more they stomped their feet and let this thing drag out, the less leverage they had.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
But the fact remains
that there would be compensation. It just needed to be agreed to.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 19, 2012 9:10 AM CST up reply actions
Well they should have been smart enough to keep Theo until it was decided.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
We offered them Cash... they asked for Castro.
I think we’ll see something along the lines of what we originally offered.
If Theo was a Field Manager
A lopsided trade would have occurred, ala Ozzie Guillen or Lou Piniella. I am surprised that is not the case here.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 19, 2012 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
It is a somewhat comparable situation to Ozzie or Lou
… both of whom had time left on their deals when they switched teams.
The Red Sox should get something. To say they should get Garza or Castro is just lunacy.
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They overpaid for Guillen. He is way vastly overrated.
Nothing happens unless it's first a dream
by puckishcubsfan on Jan 20, 2012 7:04 AM CST up reply actions
This is particularly interesting to me
Because right now I’m in a remedies class, and we’re talking about how when you compensate a party that has suffered a loss, the goal is not to give them a windfall, but to make them whole. This leads me to the conclusion that if Theo was going to get the boot anyway, then the Red Sox haven’t really “lost” much of anything, since he was already halfway out the door. If we compensate them something worthwhile, it seems to me they would be acquiring a windfall. Bud Selig is (allegedly) a smart guy, I hope he does his due diligence when it comes to this situation.
Remedies was my favorite class in law school....
….but I’d have advised you not to go to law school.
by Vance Lawyer on Jan 19, 2012 2:54 PM CST up reply actions
Seconded
3 worst years of my life. Love my job, but man law school was hell.
Interesting. I have a friend who’s brother punched someone in the face and knocked out a few teeth (the guy had done some things to their sister which I won’t repeat here)
The guy who deserved to lose all his teeth and have his parts cut off for what he did wanted veneers and such and my friend’s brother offered to pay for your basic work. HE got the basic work. Not surprisingly the guys in jail now for doing things to women that any good brother would beat him up for.
Nothing happens unless it's first a dream
by puckishcubsfan on Jan 20, 2012 7:07 AM CST up reply actions
With Bud now getting involved
I don’t see any situation other than both teams getting screwed and being pissed off.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07
Good point.
If anyone knows how to screw something up, it’s Bud.
The best husband in the world is going to the 2012 Randy Hundley Cubs Fantasy camp!
I keep reading this...
…and I don’t understand what it means. So you’re saying the Cubs are going to feel that they are giving up too much and the Sox are going to feel like they aren’t getting enough? Can you give me a player example of what you’re talking about?
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
I can envision a scenario where
Selig takes a draft pick away from the Cubs along with a player or two and gives the players to the Sox and then just dissolves the draft pick as a “fine”.
I’m saying this partly in jest, but seriously, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if both teams end up being pissed at the result.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07
I hear what you're saying.
I don’t know a lot about our farm system, so it was an honest question.
Honestly, I think most Sox fans couldn’t care less at this point. They aren’t expecting much and just this thing to be over with.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
compensation ends in a tie?
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 19, 2012 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
If so
… it gets settled by Theo & Ben having a home run derby.
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Unless a deadline has been set for this that I don't know about,
another contest could be -how long does it take for Bud to decide.
The best husband in the world is going to the 2012 Randy Hundley Cubs Fantasy camp!
That's probably why the owners gave Bud a 2 year extension - he's gonna need that long to figure this one out...
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
From "Over The Monster"
http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/1/19/2490217/red-sox-cubs-negotiations#storyjump
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
That was enjoyable
Big ups to Matthew Kory.
"Keep pushin' til' it's understood. And these badlands start treating us good."
HWSNBN
And we’ll pay for airfare and send him with a complete red sox uniform.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
Can we send him anyway?
The best husband in the world is going to the 2012 Randy Hundley Cubs Fantasy camp!
Everyone is guessing way too high.
It’s going to be 25-30 range prospect. Selig isn’t going to set presidence that executives are more valuable than players.
Someone like Rosario, Hayden Simpson, Bianchi, etc.
We'll give them Bianchi from the Brewers!!
Also, very little chance we’d give up on Simpson after 1 year of dealing with pitching on a fractured shoulder.
Rosario is fine, but he’s probably got one of the best FBs in our system and can touch upper 90s. I’m not sure I’d love getting rid of an upside arm. A bullpen arm that is more MLB ready is preferred by me.
Bob Sirott
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 19, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions
He's the only one to have
felt the wrath of Tweedy all these years.
"Keep pushin' til' it's understood. And these badlands start treating us good."
Given that the Sox don't think...
very highly of the Cubs farm system anyway, I’d put my money on the Cubs giving up a 3rd or 4th round draft pick.
Can't trade draft picks, and that is certainly a precedent that Selig wont allow.
He is allowing the lottery picks to be traded “at certain times,” but other than that he’s set in his ways.
Not to put too fine a point on it..
But this isn’t a “trade”. And there is actually little precedent that I’m aware of, so I don’t know how he would be set on a certain way, given that he’s never had to make this decision before.
by Damen Jackson on Jan 19, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
True.
But I cannot see him setting a precedent by giving Boston a draft pick.
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Carpenter
Most likely names I think are Clevinger, Lake, Carpenter and Vitters. Valuable, but not the top of the heap. And I could easily see the Cubs giving up two guys.
I can live with losing Carpenter – he just reminds me of a mild-mannered Kyle Farnsworth, a fireballer who cannot locate and has too little movement on the fastball. I would give up Vitters too – his walk numbers are too low. We need to be done with that kind of baseball – been watching it since Shawon Sr.
I like the upside of Clevinger and Lake too much. I wanna keep them. And I don’t want anybody taking OBP gods like BJax and DeVoss.
-- Jerome Horwitz
by KO Stradivarius on Jan 19, 2012 4:35 PM CST reply actions
I do wonder if part of the deal will require Theo to give back his key to Fenway.
I think I speak for everyone here when I say, "Wait, what the hell are you talking about?"
The Red Sox already had replaced Epstein
It is well known they were moving on with Cherington, as if they weren’t too upset Epstein was leaving. To me that is where the decision has to be made. Epstein even if he stuck out the last year of the deal was going to be leaving.
I don’t care for Bud Selig about as much as seemingly every other poster here, but, I do give him credit that I don’t think he make some outrageous level of compenstation. Probably a 10-20 range player in my opinion. I don’t know how this decision will be made, but, if the Cubs are allowed to offer an opinion that is what I’d say. The Sox were moving on from Epstein, you can’t reward them with a MLB player, a top ten prospect, or a first round pick.
Sammy Sosa's
broken boombox
You can be whatever you want to be, just put your mind to it and work hard! -Dad
Sosa actually was a Red Sox for a few weeks
but he never took the field for them when the contract he signed was voided.
by Josh Timmers on Jan 21, 2012 5:32 PM CST up reply actions
This "contest" was posted 11 days ago.
I take it entries are still open.
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No reason to limit the entries until the decision is made...
Worries me that one exec said they thought the compensation would be significant to try and prevent high level executives from moving before their contract is up.
If Selig tries to prevent these moves by punishing the Cubs, he’s an even bigger idiot than I thought, which is impressive.
I suggested Michael Burgess and Abner Abreu a long time ago
Abreu is still young enough to be considered a "prospect. Burgess has crazy power but also serious strikeout issues.
My actual guess is Ben Wells
Because unfortunately, HWSNBN is untradeable.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
It's going to hurt.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’m guessing… Brett Jackson.
"This is an environment of welcoming, and you should just get the hell outta here." --Michael Scott
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