Prospect Watch: Top 10 first basemen

Rizzo ranks #1 and Vogelbach #10 in Jonathan Mayo's first base prospect list. No, I'm not concerned about having too many first basemen. But I understand why they didn't bother with Prince.

4 months ago BVictor 38 comments 0 recs |

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#1 and #10?

I’ll take that.

Tom Brady. Nuff said.

by Cub Style on Jan 21, 2012 11:32 AM CST reply actions

That was a nice pick at 1B by Rizzo

He even made that brown and gold padres uniform look good. Well, almost.

"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum

by RiskyBusiness on Jan 21, 2012 2:11 PM CST reply actions

I hope they are right

The Stat Pack

by shoemile on Oct 21, 2011 10:10 PM CDT

by Madison Cub Fan on Jan 21, 2012 3:56 PM CST reply actions

Between Rizzo at 1 and Vogelbach at 10 and just out of high school..

I’m liking our future chances at a quality first basemen.

In Theo and Jed I Trust

by KJ24 on Jan 21, 2012 4:42 PM CST up reply actions

the amount Jed traded for Rizzo

there must be something he sees that he REALLY likes.

The Stat Pack

by shoemile on Oct 21, 2011 10:10 PM CDT

by Madison Cub Fan on Jan 21, 2012 5:33 PM CST up reply actions

I think it was that and also not being all that high on Cashner.

They projected him to be a reliever.

DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.

by shoemile on Jan 21, 2012 5:39 PM CST up reply actions

they didn't give that much up for him

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Jan 21, 2012 5:52 PM CST up reply actions

Depends on your view of Cashner - pitching is the hardest commodity to come by in baseball

by ClarkFan on Jan 21, 2012 10:57 PM CST up reply actions

set up men are not that valuable

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 22, 2012 9:14 AM CST up reply actions

Nor are AAA 1B

Both Cashner and Rizzo have to make progress or the acquiring teams will be disappointed.

Ultimately, I think the risk was reasonable for the Cubs. Cashner isn’t exactly old, but at 25 he isn’t exactly young for a guy who has yet to put in a full season in the majors. I still don’t think he has developed a + change-up, which he will need to be a starter. I think the over/under for him is closer rather than setup guy, but he could still end up as either a starter or a middle inning guy. Rizzo struggled in the vast reaches of Petco, but is still pretty young and plays a position where the Cubs system is empty above Boise (or wherever Vogelbach goes this year).

I think the trade signaled that the Stat Pack thinks that Cashner’s ultimate destination is the bullpen, a place where the Cubs system actually has some depth. They used depth to address weakness (1B), just like they did in trading Marshall.

by ClarkFan on Jan 22, 2012 9:59 AM CST up reply actions

To the Cubs a power hitting 1B is a lot more valuable

power hitters are much more valuable than set up men because a hitter can impact 140 games a year, while a set up man maybe half as many, hence the hitter is much more valuable. Good trade.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 23, 2012 7:41 AM CST up reply actions

Top hitters are always more valuable than top pitchers.

As you mentioned, top pitchers are simply harder to come by. I feel like Cashner had enough significant risk to make it worth a potential top bat with good defense.

by bdlugz on Jan 22, 2012 9:34 AM CST up reply actions

I wonder if there is a contribution top pitchers make that WAR doesn't capture well

A team can have demi-gods at every position in the field/lineup, and get absolutely stifled when it runs into an average team with two lights-out SPs. And I don’t care if the WAR stats say something different, Verlander was the MVP of the AL last year. Without the win every 5th day he provided across the middle of the season, the Tigers would have packed it in and another team would have won that division.

by ClarkFan on Jan 22, 2012 10:03 AM CST up reply actions

The problem is, pitchers don't play as often.

Since WAR is cumulative, it’s more important to have stud position players to win more games.

That all changes when you’re IN the playoffs, stud pitchers have a much larger effect. There are a lot of studies that show this and study it more closely. Wang did an entire study, which I linked to part of in another fanshot about farm system rankings, putting $ values to prospects based on their placement on a prospect list. Top hitters (rank 1-10 on lists) are worth 3x more than top pitchers.

by bdlugz on Jan 22, 2012 5:26 PM CST up reply actions

Is that

because the top hitters are more projectable, and more likely to succeed, or because a MLB position player is worth more than a MLB starting pitcher?

by tomas21 on Jan 23, 2012 7:23 AM CST up reply actions

Hitters play 130, 140 maybe even 150 games a year

relievers maybe half that many. Also the hitter plays most if not the whole game, while the reliever pitches one inning at the most. That is what makes a hitter more valuable, they have many more opportunities to influence the game.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 23, 2012 7:43 AM CST up reply actions

It's both, really..

Top tier hitting prospects carry much less risk than top tier pitching prospects, which helps to account for the massive value of hitters over pitchers.

Also, the second part of that is when you look at WAR, top tier pitchers are typically around 5-7 WAR, where top tier hitters can be around 8-10 in their best years. For instance, last year Verlander had a WAR of 7.0 – compared to Pedroia’s WAR of 8.0, Granderson’s WAR of 7.0, etc.

There were something like 5 pitchers with a WAR at or above 6.0 last year, and 19 hitters above that mark.

by bdlugz on Jan 23, 2012 9:42 AM CST up reply actions

Hmmmm

I’m just typing this without thinking it through, but your statement above makes me think that an elite pitcher might be worth more than an elite hitter, just based on scarcity.

I could see a hitting prospect being worth more than a pitching prospect, because they chance of them being a high-WAR player is so much better. But if I had to choose between Verlander and Granderson or Pedroia, I’d take Verlander all day because he’s not as replaceable as a great hitter.

I’m getting a little off the original topic though.

by tomas21 on Jan 23, 2012 10:33 AM CST up reply actions

The point is, you would take a Verlander most times...

But they aren’t worth as many wins during the regular season. My point was even the BEST pitcher is only worth a percentage of the best hitters, and multiple hitters will provide more wins than the top pitcher.

However, as I mentioned above, this all goes out the window in the playoffs, because the pitcher is capable of taking over an entire game and rendering another offense useless. In playoffs, that top pitcher is worth more than that top hitter, just not over 162 games.

With that said, the reason you see pitchers go for so much in trades and contract $ is because they are more scarce. You tend to pay closer to WAR value for a top pitcher than for a top hitter.

As far as in prospects, top hitters are worth around 3x more than top pitchers due to the much higher chance of a pitcher flaming out or becoming injured compared to a top hitter.

by bdlugz on Jan 23, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions

He has gone after him more than once....

by ClarkFan on Jan 21, 2012 10:56 PM CST up reply actions

exactly my point

They must really see something in this kid. I’d be curious to know specifically what it is.

The Stat Pack

by shoemile on Oct 21, 2011 10:10 PM CDT

by Madison Cub Fan on Jan 22, 2012 10:21 PM CST up reply actions

hopefully we find out real soon

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 23, 2012 7:43 AM CST up reply actions

I’m really excited about Rizzo.

Maybe by the time Vogelbach is ready one of them can move to left field.

Nothing happens unless it's first a dream

by puckishcubsfan on Jan 21, 2012 7:07 PM CST reply actions

No.

Neither of these two are outfielders on a team that values defense.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Jan 22, 2012 9:00 AM CST up reply actions

Exactly.

Barring a DH, these two will never be in the same lineup. But if we’re lucky enough and they both pan out, one of them could be very valuable trade pieces.

by Dcr18 on Jan 22, 2012 10:42 AM CST up reply actions

Question...

When do they announce rosters for minor league teams…who goes where? I’m really hoping this Vogelbach kid comes to Peoria.

by Easy Ed on Jan 22, 2012 1:27 AM CST reply actions

Generally

… they announce them right around the end of spring training. If I had to guess, I’d think Peoria would be Vogelbach’s destination.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 22, 2012 8:25 AM CST up reply actions

He's gonna have some competition.

Rock Shoulders and Paul Hoilman are also gonna be fighting for that job. If Vogelbach earns the spot, hopefully he gets it and Hoilman either DH’s or goes to Daytona. Baez might be a better bet to start out at Peoria but I suppose both have a chance.

by Dcr18 on Jan 22, 2012 10:45 AM CST up reply actions

Why would Baez

have anything to do with all those 1B?

Personally, I’d like to see pretty much all those 2011 draftees head to full season ball rather than working in XST and then heading to Boise. I think Baez and Vogelbach are both fairly good bets for Peoria.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 22, 2012 3:23 PM CST up reply actions

Sorry if I made that sound like Baez had something to do with those 1B.

I was just comparing Baez and Vogelbach because they’re are top two draft picks, both high school position players with minimal experience. Both very well could be at Peoria, both may start at extended ST. I was just saying I believe Baez is more likely to start at Peoria. I just don’t see there being room for all of Shoulders, Vogelbach, and Hoilman on the Chiefs.

by Dcr18 on Jan 22, 2012 4:03 PM CST up reply actions

OK gotcha... and I agree with one "but"

Given his advanced age and lack of hype, they could try to push Hoilman up to Daytona to see if his last can stick. That would open up a DH spot in Peoria for Rock or V to split with 1B.

Regardless, I think all decisions hinge on where the want V to go since he has the biggest upside and the highest signing bonus. If they think he’s ready for Peoria he goes there then one of the other guys is going to have to go Daytona. If they disagree, then it is back to Mesa and the placings work out rather reasonably.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 22, 2012 10:30 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed.

by Dcr18 on Jan 23, 2012 6:22 PM CST up reply actions

Cool...

…I hope you’re right. I look forward to it.

by Easy Ed on Jan 22, 2012 7:20 PM CST up reply actions

This not on topic for this post

But how does Matt Garza’s trade value compare to that of Hanley Ramirez? As much as I’d like to see them get young, upside pitching for Garza, I would be intruigued by the idea of a rizzo-Castro-Ramirez-Stewart infield.

by tomas21 on Jan 22, 2012 3:18 PM CST via mobile reply actions

You couldn't get Hanley

for Garza.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 22, 2012 3:50 PM CST up reply actions

Mid season deal

If Hanley is unhappy at third in Miami, how about Garza, Vitters, and Marmol for him and a minor league pitcher? Ehh, probably would still be beat by Boston’s offer.

by cubzfan on Jan 22, 2012 8:31 PM CST up reply actions

why would miami want marmol?

and why would we want hanley playing SS?

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Jan 22, 2012 9:35 PM CST up reply actions

On Alex Dickerson

Watched him here at IU for a few years, the kid can rake. I was really not happy that he went to the NL Central, hoping he gets traded. Kid has a bright future

"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck

Follow me on the twitter: @DJFreddie10 . I like to talk sports

by Musicdude10 on Jan 23, 2012 12:42 PM CST reply actions