Why The Cubs Should Pass On Yoenis Cespedes

Who’s compared to a top 10 draft pick, was always going to be larger than a top draft pick, because no one has exclusive negotiating rights to him. Only the Nationals could sign Strasburg.

The Cespedes part, I disagree with you, but not strongly enough to fight too aggressively. The thing is: its rare that you get a chance to get a superior talent, still short of his peak years, for nothing more than cash. Even if it’s a lot of cash, you’ve gotta think about it.

Are the birth documents of Cuban players more reliable than Dominican players?

Maybe it’s my ignorance that leads me to express concern. However, that Fausto Carmona situation is quite the nightmare for everyone involved.

considering how much/long they signed for. Pujols and Fielder, too long and too much, a little less on the years and Fielder might have worked better. Darvish, too much for the unproven, although I would have liked him for less money. Cespedes, again too much for the unproven and not to mention things I have read about his plate discipline. Soler is somebody I’d like to get at the young age, but again, if he’s demanding that much money right now, I’m sorry but I pass. I never thought that I’d be happy about all these good players going elsewhere, and maybe I’m completely wrong, but it seems like we will be better without all that commitment to those players in the long run. Eventually we are going to have to make those commitments, but these haven’t felt like the right ones to make considering the state of the Cubs and what they all have been demanding.

If Theo and Jed have $30 million lying around the office (and evidence suggests they don’t), I’d recommend they use it on next year’s draft and other international signings (from Asia, primarily). Let the Marlins spend “to the point of stupidity.”

With the new CBA, how could that money go towards the draft? I mean, I guess you could really splurge, but then pay the penalties in tax and draft picks.

The Asian market is interesting and the Cubs have done pretty well there.. But aren’t most of the bonuses there, even the large ones, no more than $1M?

I’m also not sure any of us really have a great grasp on how much $ the Cubs might have “lying around”. What’s the evidence they don’t have it? Because they didn’t splurge on Fielder or Darvish?

And weren’t we frequently told that the baseball budget was allocated as an overall figure with sub budgets for the major league payroll and amateur scouting? Assuming so, wouldn’t whatever the Cubs have intended to spend on amateur signings still be “lying around”?

I’m definitely not trying to shred the post… I’m honestly asking. I’m on the fence with Cespedes. I’m in a little less agreement regarding Soler, since he has so much room to grow (though it has to be at the right price and $20M might be a bit much).

I’ve been waiting for this!!!!!

“A CUB!”

It’s meant to be?

So here you go!

Al, I think you wanted Fielder and they traded for Rizzo. It appears like opposite world here so if you don’t want Cespedes, he is a Cub. I think we are all fooled by what TheoJed are doing. Which is really fine by me.

This cleared up some of my questions in the Fanshot in which everyone here trolled on.

Although as others have pointed out and you have acknowledged, the money really can’t be spent elsewhere under the new CBA. This is sort of a use it or lose it opportunity.

My problem with Cespedes is that his hit tool isn’t all that great. His power is probably a 70—that translates to around 30 HR a year. But he’s going to combine that with a low average and probably a low OBP. He looks like he’s already growing out of CF. So you’re looking at a good defensive RF with excellent power, decent speed and a low OBP. Is that worth $35 million? Yes, it is. But that’s probably his ceiling. He’s a much bigger gamble than Darvish or another free agent, for many reasons, including some that you’ve pointed out.

I wouldn’t really have a problem with getting Cespedes because I don’t know where else the money could be spent under the new CBA. But I’m not out banging the drum for it either. I think he’s a risky pick that could pay off big or go bust.

…I have many of the same misgivings that Al does, yet I’ve still found myself sucked into this story. I will say that, based on the Padres system, I have a pretty high opinion of Jed McCleod so his interest should count for something. I guess I won’t be outraged if the Marlins get him, but I’m intrigued by his potential.

we should be ok with their choice of signing him. Putting him against past Cubans is not fair to him.

“…That started a frenzy for fans of various teams to say, “Sign him! ZOMG he’s the best thing EVAR!”

I WANT PROOF OF THIS!!!

He’s in his prime. What MLB player becomes available at the age of 26?

Beyond that, frankly I think you could compare Cespedes just as easily to Jason Werth as you could to Adam Jones. Look what Werth gets paid.

Cespedes is going to be cheaper than Fukudome, and he simply cannot be worse. Faster and more energetic, for one, looks like a good leader for the Latin ballplayers. I think that for 6 years at $6 or $7 million per, this is a heck of a good gamble.

I don’t buy the $60 million garbage, and I don’t buy the $20 million tag on Soler either.

Just got off the phone. Just got a job at Goodyear Ballpark for all of Spring Training.

And boom goes the dynamite.

He’s only a little more than a year younger than Prince Fielder, and has played exactly zero games against anything resembling major league competition.

1) You’re underestimating the level of talent in the Cuban leagues, which are considered around the AA / AAA level
2) The WBC doesn’t just resemble major league competition, in most cases it was literally major league competition. Literally.

doesn’t mean someone has to pay it. I’d agree with this post a whole lot more if it said something like: Why the Cubs should pass on paying $30 million to Yoenis Cespedes. But you take his asking price as if it’s a given. That’s only the market price if there’s someone out there willing to match it. If not, maybe he signs for something that’s a better gamble, and you certainly would want the Cubs to have been in the mix enough to at least know if that’s possible.

Use the Darvish signing as an example. You had people on here saying it wasn’t worth bidding on him because it would inevitably be a $100+ million commitment. Well, no, as it happened the Cubs made a bid that turned out to be lower than other teams were willing to pay and it cost them nothing. But it was still worth doing, because if Tor and Tex had whiffed on the opportunity, you would have done real well to be the team that bid the correct price for him.

Point being, if he’s a useful upgrade for us, they should offer him what they think he’s worth. If other people value him more highly and have the resources, they’ll likely sign him. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t put in a bid.

Other reasons to argue for guys like Cespedes and Soler – TheoJed has to look for every possible way to rebuild this barren farm system, because the pickins are getting slim in the coming years. Grabbing these two guys right now at a potential bargain is a sure way to beef things up quickly.

This may be one of the cheapest and easiest ways to do rebuild this team, far cheaper than trades and regular FA signings, far cheaper than posted Japanese players whose success rates are sort of abysmal the last several years. Cheaper than the Fukudomes of the world, more expensive than your usual prospect. But these are strong talents who play at a very competitive level.

And of course, the possession of multiple outfielder prospects will give us more trade flexibility for pitching, which is what we really need.

Going after Cespedes seems like a decent move. The more depth we have the better.

Eh on Cespedes, especially if the Marlins are going to drive up the price.

so we’ll see what kind of discussion we get here.

But the Trib’s Mark Gonzalez had some interesting tidbits this morning regarding the Cubans, though naturally from the South Side perspective.

The one that really caught my eye was:

Soler, 19, is considered less polished than Cespedes but can develop into a productive player. The scout said comparisons to Miami outfielder Mike Stanton are ‘’fair.’’

Granted this is simply one scout’s take… but If it is reasonable that Soler could be Stanton-lite… then yes please… sign him right now.

For those who don’t feel like clicking, the scout was more lukewarm on Cespedes… and didn’t really offer much on Concepcion other than he might be “more affordable”.