Does Vitters have a shot this year?

by IndianaBoy on Jan 27, 2012 12:12 PM CST

Just read an article by Carrie Muskat on my 24/7 cubbies app (download it if you don't have it), and she was talking about Vitters an his career so far. Vitters and coincidentally Weathers, who we picked up in the Stewart trade from Colorado, are the only two 1st round picks in 2007 who have not made the bigs yet. This spring training should be the perfect opportunity for him to impress the new guys up top. He is still young and fits perfectly into our new youth movement. Also this is the last year in his contract I believe.

Im not a huge fan of Stewart an think by midseason Josh could take his starting role. Or at least give the Cubs a reason to trade Stewart if he's having a good enough year. What do you guys think?

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There's not much to suggest Vitters will be as good as Stewart

Stewart had a better minor league career and was roughly league average (prior to last year) at the MLB level. I’d be pretty surprised if Vitters made the jump from being a solid-but-nothing-special player in AA last year to being anything useful at the MLB level this year.

Maybe he does really well in Iowa early and gets called up if Steward/Baker/DeWitt flop in the first half. But if he plays in AAA the way he played in his first tries at A+ and AA (where he had sub-.700 OPS) then I don’t think we’ll see him.

I’d not be betting on him making it this year as anything more than a September call-up or injury replacement.

by SouthernCub on Jan 27, 2012 12:26 PM CST reply actions

I think they are somewhat similar

Vitters had a .770 OPS in AA in his age 21 season. Stewart was at .800 at the same age and level. Stewart had more success before that, but he also had a more sensical promotion through the minors than Vitters did.

One encouraging sign for Vitters is that while he struggled his first time through a league, he adapted. He’s still on the younger side for AA.

I don’t think he’s ready for the majors, but I’m not ready to discount him. I think he needs another year or two to declare himself. I don’t think he’ll ever be a star, but he could be useful—maybe .280/.330 with 20 home runs. Not a star, but if he has the glove to stay at third those numbers would be enough for a solid career.

by tomas21 on Jan 27, 2012 9:43 PM CST up reply actions

Reading that

Casey Blake came to mind.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Jan 28, 2012 6:55 AM CST up reply actions

It's disappointing for a top ten pick though

Vitters was expected to be ready by now and was considered to be as good as Ramirez when drafted

"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck

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by Musicdude10 on Jan 29, 2012 10:26 PM CST up reply actions

Vitters was 21 last year...

It’s so unusual for players to make the majors by 21 that it’s hard to consider him a disappointment so far. I understand his minor league numbers haven’t been what we were expecting, but he was in AA at 20, which is good, and will be in AAA at 21, which is also really good.

He may not be ready for another couple of years, and he likely wont ever be the player we were hoping/expecting, but he still has a good chance at a productive major league career.

by bdlugz on Jan 30, 2012 8:20 AM CST up reply actions

The rapid rise of Castro may have a bit to do with it. His success may have

skewed expectations for other players. The important thing is that a player show steady improvement at all levels that culminate in a smooth transition to the big leagues. Vitters came in with a lot of hype and so many people want him to be the next great thing. He really hasn’t been around enough to make a definative decision about him. Unless he suddenly has a monster year. a decision will probably made in September.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jan 30, 2012 11:23 AM CST up reply actions

and

most likely, if it were not for his place taken in the draft, no one would be talking about him.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry

by Hammer on Jan 30, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions

bingo

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Jan 30, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions

That's not quite accurate

Vitters did get to AA at age 20, but he won’t get to AAA until age 22 (he turned 22 last August). Not a huge difference, but it’s still a difference. Especially considering that he hasn’t excelled at at any of the upper levels of the minors.

That may be due to his age. But at some point, you have to go from projection to production. He’s still a very big “if.”

I definitely agree he has a chance to be a solid MLBer. I think eventually he could be a player sort of like Ian Stewart, but with a higher average and fewer walks. I think expecting an .800+ OPS from him might be on the optimistic side, but a .750-.775 OPS type is certainly possible. And who knows? Maybe he’ll develop the power to be an .800+ OPS guy (I’m not counting on that though).

I just really don’t think that he will be MLB ready this year, and I think a lot of things would have to go wrong at the MLB level for him to get that chance this year. I just hope he shows progress at AAA this year and does enough to be a worthwhile discussion point next year.

by SouthernCub on Feb 2, 2012 2:36 PM CST up reply actions

Don't disagree with anything you said, and the 21 in AAA was a typo, meant 22.

It would be weird if he was 21 his AA year last year AND 21 his AAA year this year… I’d have to investigate that one.

by bdlugz on Feb 2, 2012 3:20 PM CST up reply actions

Just to clarify one thing from Carrie's article

The statistic Carrie mentioned was that they are the only two players picked in the top 10 that haven’t made it yet. There are other first rounders who have not made it, and might never make it at all.

It’s really not the most revealing statistic when it comes to Vitters, because unlike a lot of the other top 10 guys he was a high schooler (and was only 17 at the time he was drafted). The only other position player drafted out of High School in the top 10 was Mike Moustakas at #2, who is a full year older, and did not debut in MLB until last year, playing 89 games.

by Orval Overall on Jan 27, 2012 12:37 PM CST reply actions

My bad

Must have been reading a little too fast, thanks though

by IndianaBoy on Jan 27, 2012 12:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

good catch

I didn’t think there had ever been a draft in which 97% of the first round made the pros.

Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 29, 2012 7:36 AM CST up reply actions

In spite of his slow progression compared to Moustakas and others

I still think Vitters is one of the best picks from the Hendry years. When you have a prospect who scouts refuse to give up on in spite of his struggles to adapt to the higher levels of minor league ball, you know they made the right choice.

by subtle on Feb 2, 2012 3:54 PM CST up reply actions

I believed then and I still believe

that the only reason they took Vitters was because they did not want to pay Wieters a much bigger signing bonus. As to your comment that Vitters was one of the best picks of the Hendry years, are you damning Hendry with faint praise or just kidding?

by Bad Dogs on Feb 2, 2012 4:57 PM CST up reply actions

Are you being facetious?

The dozen or so players picked after Vitters include Heyward, Wieters, Bumgarner, Porcello, LaPorta and a couple handfuls of other players who have made the majors. Consider the opportunity cost among “consensus first round players” in that draft, and you’d be very, very hard pressed to call it “one of the best picks” for any GM.

It may work out. But our enthusiasm is seriously tempered at this point.

Scouts didn’t want to give up on Corey Patterson, either. Still don’t! He looks so good in his uniform.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Feb 3, 2012 6:08 PM CST up reply actions

The numbers are not there for Vitters

Middling power, high error totals and very low walks. Yes, he’s young, but his numbers aren’t trending any better. MLB pitchers will exploit his aggressiveness.

I think it’s more likely he gets surpassed by Junior Lake, who has developed both speed and power and has been said to possess a cannon for an arm.

Of course… in a few more years, Baez could top them both in a move to third.

Vitters was tried at first, but we’re too deep there now. Outfield? Not worth the trouble to convert him. I think Vitters could be a nice piece in a trade – give him a chance elsewhere.

-- Jerome Horwitz

by KO Stradivarius on Jan 27, 2012 12:55 PM CST reply actions

The operative word is chance.

I think anyone on the 40 Man and all the NRIs have a chance. If (to pull a name) Rafael Dolis does really well, he’ll make the 25 man. If no, not so mych.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 27, 2012 1:30 PM CST reply actions

Barring an injury or two...

…I’m not expecting to see Vitters until September. I think this season in the minors is going to be huge for him. Would it be going too far to call it “make or break”? It kind of seems that way. Then again, I understand there’s a pretty big scarcity of legit 3B prospects in all of baseball right now, so maybe that will buy him some additional time.

"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach

by daver on Jan 27, 2012 2:35 PM CST reply actions

What does this mean?

Also this is the last year in his contract I believe.

Does that refer to his Minor league contract? And that he must remain on the 25-man roster after 2012, or face clearing waivers?

"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum

by RiskyBusiness on Jan 27, 2012 3:04 PM CST reply actions

I believe he is right.

This will be his sixth year in the organization — drafted and signed in 2007. He could wind up a minor league FA after 2012.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 27, 2012 3:43 PM CST up reply actions

But if he on the 25 man roster?

Where does he fall? 0-3 non-arbitration? Arbitration eligible?

"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum

by RiskyBusiness on Jan 27, 2012 7:47 PM CST up reply actions

0-3 non-arbitration

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Jan 27, 2012 8:00 PM CST up reply actions

Carrie........

made it sound like he had a good year last year, and that it was his first injury free year in awhile.

by jballgame on Jan 27, 2012 4:58 PM CST reply actions

He had an okay year... and it wasn't injury free.

by bdlugz on Jan 27, 2012 7:32 PM CST up reply actions

Meh.

He has a shot later in the year if he can put it together, but the same could be said for Junior Lake. I personally think Stewart is gonna be pretty solid.

by Dcr18 on Jan 27, 2012 8:03 PM CST reply actions

If there was ever a year

for him to have a shot, it would be this year. Not counting on it, but he has a remote shot at least.

by Grockcubs on Jan 27, 2012 8:50 PM CST reply actions

There was something in the trib tonight

that his name was brought up in Theo compensation talks. Didn’t say which side brought him up.

by tomas21 on Jan 27, 2012 9:35 PM CST reply actions

If Vitters has a Colvin 2010-style spring while Stewart slumps as Sam Fuld did that year...

…it seems obvious he would make the 25-man roster, maybe even open the season at third. And why not? After all, he’s 22 – time to sink or swim. He might be another Ryno or, more likely, another Kid Orie. Only one way to find out for sure.

"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62

"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64

by ernaga on Jan 28, 2012 1:34 PM CST reply actions

I think even if that happens Stewart opens the MLB season at 3B.

Vitters would be put in Des Moines. He really needs to start demonstrating some modicum of control over the strike zone, OR a Castro-level contact tool. Some increase in power would be nice, too.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Jan 29, 2012 10:58 AM CST up reply actions

Yea Stewart would have to absolutely tank to lose the 3B job.

by Dcr18 on Jan 29, 2012 11:35 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed

hopefully they learned from the Colvin experience.

If Vitters should tear it up in this spring, great, but send him down and see if he can keep it up in AAA. If he shows the spring was not a fluke, than maybe you think about bringing him up and giving him his shot.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 29, 2012 12:18 PM CST up reply actions

Exactly.

If his spring is actually for real, he should be able to continue that in Iowa.

by Dcr18 on Jan 29, 2012 4:37 PM CST up reply actions

vitters

needs to step it up. we all watched how colvin forced his way on the team.there’s your strategy josh. with stewart being a big question mark this is vitters big chance.it’s not like ramirez is blocking him anymore.

by NOMAR on Jan 29, 2012 7:28 AM CST reply actions

and we all saw how well that worked out for Colvin

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 29, 2012 7:40 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs

Yeaaahhhh...I don't think that's so good of a strategy.

"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach

by daver on Jan 30, 2012 11:22 AM CST up reply actions

Why not? It's worked so well for us in the past.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jan 30, 2012 11:24 AM CST up reply actions

Yes, Vitters has a shot this year, just not a particularly good one

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 29, 2012 7:39 AM CST reply actions

His hindrance is not

his lack of a chance. Many of us think Stewart>>>Vitters now.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Jan 29, 2012 9:27 AM CST up reply actions

I agree with this

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry

by Hammer on Jan 29, 2012 11:35 AM CST up reply actions

Of course

Of course Vitters has a chance. If Stewart does what he did last year, he’ll be chased out of town.

by ferris2001 on Jan 29, 2012 5:55 PM CST reply actions

Developing as a hitter is all about making adjustments

And Vitters has just barely made the adjustments necessary to succeed at AA. And a .770 OPS for a third baseman who has defensive struggles is nothing to write home about. This next season will be a big test for Josh. You can only be young for your level for so long.

by subtle on Jan 30, 2012 8:51 AM CST reply actions

"24/7 cubbies app"

Whats the exact name of this app? I tried searching that and found nothing.

MCM's Favorite Hawkeye

by rsikes on Feb 2, 2012 6:44 AM CST reply actions

You can set up MLB At Bat (for iPhone)...

…with a team specific page. In fact, I think it forces you to. That’s probably what he means. I think if you go to the cubs.com mobile page, it offers you a desktop app. I used to have one for my BlackBerry before I switched to the iPhone.

"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach

by daver on Feb 2, 2012 11:57 AM CST up reply actions