My Mystery teams for Garza

by B.Bruce on Jan 4, 2012 4:10 PM CST

With Theo Epstien liking to be unpredictable could we see a mystery team trade for Matt Garza? In my opinion there are two teams that could very well have a strong intrest in Matt Garza.

First off is the Colorado Rockies whom the Cubs have already traded with this winter and could actually have some of the best pieces to trade. Pitchers Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, and Chad Bettis make a good pool of players to choose from for a center piece while players such as Tim Wheeler, and Trevor Story would be nice second pieces. Epstien has always liked to be very unpredictable so we could see Garza moving out west.

The next team is really not that much of a mystery team but has been written off because of the Cubs price. The New York Yankees are indeed in need of a top of the rotation pitcher. Now while they don't like the current asking price for Garza, I could easily see him wearing pinstripes next year. A deal with Jesus Montero is not going to happen unless the Cubs ask for just a guy like Warren with him instead of one of the "B's", however a deal with LHP Manny Banuelos and catcher Gary Sanchez is very plausible and if another piece like Phelps or Warren were added it would give the Cubs some nice depth.

Fun random thought, would a Geovany Soto for Wade Davis deal work? Then flip him for a package including Anthony Rizzo?

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My reaction was that I would absolutely deal Soto for Davis.

Then I looked at Davis’ numbers.

In basically full-time work, he’s put up 1.5 WAR in two years. For 58 starts, that is….. pretty darn awful. His k rate is declining and his bb/9 isn’t good enough to offset it.

Now, personally, although I value Geo… I don’t think he’s a part of the Cubs’ next competitive team, so I’d still strongly consider dealing him. But I’d need more info on Davis to absolutely jump.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 4, 2012 4:25 PM CST reply actions

True

But the trade for Davis is really just to flip him for Anthony Rizzo and maybe another prospect from the Padres. He’s a cheap young cost controlled starter so he would fair well at PETCO.

by B.Bruce on Jan 4, 2012 10:31 PM CST up reply actions

Well, being cheap and young

doesn’t guarantee you’ll pitch well in a bigger park.

I’m actually pretty curious what the trade value of Davis would be. Is Soto enough to get him? Too much?

Would Davis be enough to get Rizzo? Too much?

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 4, 2012 11:13 PM CST up reply actions

If the Pads wanted Davis, this trade would already be done, IMO

TB needs to deal a pitcher and they need a 1B.

by RynoRooter on Jan 5, 2012 10:43 AM CST up reply actions

Presuming the Zambrano deal does happen

… I’m assuming the Cubs keep and extend Garza.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 4, 2012 6:05 PM CST reply actions

Why would those two moves be linked?

The Cubs may very well keep Garza.

But I’m not quite sure I see how swapping Z for a similar quality pitcher in Volstad would have any impact on the decision of whether to deal Garza.

Further, the Z move is a “this year” thing… and Theo is clearly looking well beyond 2012. So if he thought they could “get by / survive (insert PR term here)” without Garza before… trading Z shouldn’t impact that at all.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 4, 2012 7:02 PM CST up reply actions

Actually, I think if Theo is looking beyond 2012...

… since he has specifically said Garza is someone you can build around, I do think this deal makes it more likely Garza will stay.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 4, 2012 9:22 PM CST up reply actions

??

Z was/is on a 1 year deal. He had no impact on the Cub organization beyond the ’12 season.

What you wrote about Garza is true and very possible. But whether they choose to build around Garza has nothing to do with trading Carlos Zambrano.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 4, 2012 10:00 PM CST up reply actions

I suppose.

I think we’re both saying the same thing, in different ways.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 4, 2012 10:35 PM CST up reply actions

Not really

You are manufacturing a connection where one does not really exist.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 5, 2012 7:51 AM CST up reply actions

Dubious linkage between the two

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 4, 2012 7:19 PM CST up reply actions

I was thinking about this earlier

and I know if I was the Phillies, I would love to add Garza to that rotation.

This is not based on anything more than putting myself in a Phillies fans’ shoes….

THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!

by amaru on Jan 4, 2012 6:06 PM CST reply actions

The last thing they need to do is give up young talent for SP.

by Dcr18 on Jan 4, 2012 7:14 PM CST up reply actions

But their #5 isn't an ace yet!

by bdlugz on Jan 5, 2012 9:48 AM CST up reply actions

And the possible loss of Hamels to FA after next year

Believe it or not, it kind of makes a bit of sense. Their corp group of players is aging quickly. They likely only have 2 more years or so of competing with the best in the NL as a group. Why not try to maximize that window with a Garza trade to be the #4? If Hamels bolts, he steps in as an awesome #3 in 2013. They could then extend Garza or let him go and pick up some draft compensation to make up for the prospects they dealt for him.

by RynoRooter on Jan 5, 2012 10:51 AM CST up reply actions

That would be great...

but they’re kinda out of top prospects after the Pence trade, especially ones ready before 2014. If they had held on to Jarred Cosart maybe, but Trevor May and/or Jesse Biddle don’t do it for me. I don’t really think they do it anyway with Vance Worley working out so well last year.

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@JamesDaBear

by jameslcrockett on Jan 5, 2012 4:42 PM CST up reply actions

any thoughts on San Diego bieng a sleeper in this

Hoyer knows their farm well, and does have a working relation with them.

Q: Why did Theo Epstein cross the road?
A: To Dump Garza

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 4, 2012 6:47 PM CST reply actions

well

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Jan 4, 2012 6:53 PM CST up reply actions

Not directly.

I could see them taking a part of what the Cubs get for Garza in return for Rizzo (for example), but that’s it. They really don’t have the money to afford what Matt Garza will make in 2012 through arbitration, a settlement or any kind of extension.

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Just North of Wrigley Field

@JamesDaBear

by jameslcrockett on Jan 4, 2012 11:27 PM CST up reply actions

They just gave up 4 years of a younger, cheaper, better pitcher for prospects.

Why would they turn around and trade prospects for an older, more expensive, slightly worse pitcher where the team is demanding the moon for him?

by bdlugz on Jan 5, 2012 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

The Rockies probably wont flip Pomeranz or White so quickly

If the Cubs deal Garza its most likely to a team that has a couple of high level prospects (at least one of them an arm) that really needs an arm for a year or two to push them over the edge toward contention.

I liked the Tigers and Turner, but if that is out, Yankees are still a good bet, but you shouldnt really rely on getting Montero at all because that would be an extreme overpay. Phillies dont have anything left to deal that the Cubs would be interested in (outside of Domnic Brown maybe).

by backtocali on Jan 5, 2012 10:57 AM CST reply actions

Trevor May is an arm the FO would look at

He’ll be 22 in AA this year, has a dynamite fastball and improving secondary stuff. His biggest knock going into 2011 was his control, but he made some really nice strides there while maintaining a 12.1 K/9 over 144.1 IP. He couldn’t headline a Garza deal, but he’d be a really nice 2nd piece, IMO.

Jesse Biddle could be interesting to them as well.

by RynoRooter on Jan 5, 2012 11:38 AM CST up reply actions

I agree that neither of those guys could headline the deal

But both would be nice as complementary pieces.

From the sounds of things, the FO is looking to get premium (almost double or even triple) value in exchange for Garza.

I calculate his surplus value to be around $10 million. So at that rate it gets you one nice prospect near the bottom of the BA top 100 list. But given he is a big name, big game pitcher, can expect a premium to be placed on that value.

A Turner + mid level piece is a pretty fair return if dealing with the Tigers, but Turner and Castellanos would be a HUGE overpay, and it sounds like that is what the FO is looking for.

I think if I am Cub GM I want at least one big piece in return for Garza so if youre dealing with the Phillies you want Dominic Brown and May or Biddle. Not sure if the Phillies make that kind of deal though, even though it seems he is out of favor there.

by backtocali on Jan 5, 2012 11:51 AM CST up reply actions

But his surplus is much more than $10 millions.

If he maintains his 5 WAR performance, that was worth around 23.5 million. He’ll be paid around 8 million this year, and assuming 5 WAR again, around 13 million in 2013. That means you’re getting 10 WAR for around $21 million, which is around a $24 million surplus over 2 years of pitching.

by bdlugz on Jan 5, 2012 2:23 PM CST up reply actions

I like Garza

But I would be shocked if he were able to put up 5 WAR seasons the next two years. I’ve got him more in the 4.4 range.

I originally made a mistake in my salary computation for him in that I figured 80% and 100% for his final two years since he was a super 2. Adjusting that to 60/80 almost doubles the surplus value to $17.1 million.

I suppose if you give the premium like I mention earlier you could expect a $24 million worth in a trade. This would limit trade partners to contenders (probably) with nice farm systems and then also depends on who help make up that farm ranking….Rangers Cubs dont need Profar, Braves dont need pitching, and Cardinals wont make a big trade like that with the Cubs.

That probably leaves the Blue Jays and Red Sox. A package of Wil Middlebrooks, Brandon Jacobs and Anthony Ranaudo from the Sox would get it done or a deal of Deck McGuire, Justin Nicolino and a throw in from the Jays. I dont think they could get Marsinick away from the Jays though.

by backtocali on Jan 5, 2012 3:57 PM CST up reply actions

Fair enough, and predicting future performance is impossible, I wont argue he'll regress to 4.4 or so.

by bdlugz on Jan 5, 2012 4:44 PM CST up reply actions

FanGraphs had him at $20m surplus value...

with the Cubs looking for $20-$25m in return not including the variance when dealing with prospects.

Every single team in baseball needs Jurickson Profar. If the Cubs turn down anything in their organization (except Starlin) for Profar, I’ll become a White Sox fan.

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Just North of Wrigley Field

@JamesDaBear

by jameslcrockett on Jan 5, 2012 4:51 PM CST up reply actions

I'm intrigugued by Profar

But am waiting to see what he does in the upper levels before getting really excited about him.

My guess would be that the Rangers would prefer to hold onto him and wait for his development to progress and then deal Andrus when the time was right.

by backtocali on Jan 6, 2012 8:42 AM CST up reply actions