Zambrano's place among all-time Cubs greats

by Wreckard on Jan 5, 2012 11:02 AM CST

Zambrano's Cub career is over, and while his legacy is certainly tarnished by the incidents that eventually drove him out, his contributions were huge.

Statistically speaking, Zambrano was one of the greatest Cubs pitchers of all time, and one of the 3 best of the modern era.

	Holtzman	Zambrano	Sutcliffe	Smith	Maddux	Jenkins	Sutter	Reuschel
Cubs	18.7	31.8	21.3	18.7	31.4	53.5	17.7	46.8
Career	27.5	31.8	30	30.3	96.8	81.3	25	66.3
Batting	-1.3	5.3	1.4	-0.6	0.1	0.2	-0.7	-1.0

Using bWAR I totalled up some of the names that have been thrown out as the greatest Cubs pitchers of the modern era. The first line shows their total (pitching only) with the Cubs, the second their career, and the last their bWAR as a hitter. And it's not just longevity that puts him there - when you avergage it out, Z's WAR / Year as a Cub (including batting) is higher than anyone not named Fergie.*

For the traditionalists out there, here is how the starting pitchers among that group compare in terms of wins:

Wins	Holtzman	Sutcliffe	Maddux	Jenkins	Zambrano	Reuschel
Cubs	74	66	133	167	125	135

People love wring their hands and saying that Z never lived up to his potential, or wasn't worth the trouble. I'm not saying whether or not that's true, but objectively speaking there are few Cubs pitchers any of us have seen in our lifetimes that were better than Zambrano.

I for one will miss watching him play baseball.

* Black Eyed Peas excluded

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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There's no doubt

… that when Z was on, he was outstanding. I wish he hadn’t been convinced that he was a strikeout pitcher. He gave up a lot fewer home runs (see 2003 and 2004) when he was throwing that hard sinker, which he eventually scrapped.

When I re-numbered the Top 100 Cubs list last offseason, I ranked Z as the 43rd best Cub of all time. I think that’s just about right.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 5, 2012 11:20 AM CST reply actions

Rick Reuschel?

Where would Reuschel rank among Cubs pitchers since 1967? He had a winning career record for the Cubs despite pitching for mostly losing teams. Sadly, he was horrible for the Cubs in 1984, when the Cubs won the NL East. I, quite frankly, thought he was done then. To Reuschel’s credit, he resurrected his career in Hawaii in the Pirates organization after that and had some good years with the Pirates and Giants.

Good things come to those who wait... and wait....and wait.

by memphiscub on Jan 5, 2012 11:41 AM CST reply actions

Reuschel had 46.8 career WAR as a Cub.

That, I believe, would rank third among modern era Cub pitchers.

He also won 135 games as a Cub.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 5, 2012 11:50 AM CST up reply actions

Good call.

by Wreckard on Jan 5, 2012 12:17 PM CST up reply actions

I added him.

by Wreckard on Jan 5, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions

Nice perspective Wreck.

Too bad he’s a headcase otherwise he’d be a career Cub.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jan 5, 2012 12:00 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

It's sad to see all that talent wasted.

I truly believe Z wanted to be a good guy, but he just couldn’t keep it together.

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Jan 5, 2012 12:40 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Much of what you are giving Z credit for is longevity - 9 mostly unbroken seasons in Chicago

WAR/season drops behind Maddux, probably Sutcliffe, and maybe even Smith. And the starters had peak production that Z never came close to sniffing.

by ClarkFan on Jan 5, 2012 12:18 PM CST reply actions

Longevity is part of being an all-time great

But sure, let’s take a look.

bWAR / Year
Reuschel – 3.9
Maddux – 3.1
Zambrano – 3.5
Jenkins – 5.4
Smith – 2.3
Holtzman 2.1
Sutter – 3.5
Sutcliffe – 2.7

So by your measure he goes from 3rd to tied for 3rd. Keep trying though.

by Wreckard on Jan 5, 2012 12:42 PM CST up reply actions

Actually he moves to 2nd on that list

…if you include batting WAR.

His WAR / Year when you include batting WAR is 4.1.

by Wreckard on Jan 5, 2012 12:46 PM CST up reply actions

Reuschel Holds Up Remarkably Well

That surprises me a little. I don’t remember his good years with the Cubs in the late 1970’s. I more think of Reuschel as a Giant than a Cub personally. That’s just because of my age. Reuschel was 77-62 from 1976-1980 with a .554 winning percentage. In games in which Reuschel was NOT involved in the decision during that time, the Cubs were only 302-369 for a .450 winning percentage. The Cubs stood a much better chance of winning, when Reuschel was pitching back then.

Good things come to those who wait... and wait....and wait.

by memphiscub on Jan 5, 2012 1:12 PM CST up reply actions

He's criminally underrated.

He was a solid, solid pitcher for a remarkably long time.

by Wreckard on Jan 5, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions

Were you looking at GREG Maddux?

The guy who posted 19.3 WAR in 1990-1992. Zambrano wasn’t good enough to carry a rosin bag for Maddux, even based on Maddux’s Cubs career.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=104&position=P

You are also not breaking through the 1965 barrier. Ever hear of Mordecai Brown and Grover Cleveland Alexander?

by ClarkFan on Jan 7, 2012 8:25 PM CST up reply actions

Oh you meant Greg Maddux!

I thought you meant Elliot Maddux, the former Yankees third baseman!!!!

The guy who posted 19.3 WAR in 1990-1992.

I couldn’t have been more clear that I was using bWAR, not fWAR. Maddux’s average should actually be 3.5 per season, since I shouldn’t have counted 1986, but it’s still lower than Zambrano’s.

Zambrano wasn’t good enough to carry a rosin bag for Maddux, even based on Maddux’s Cubs career.

I couldn’t find any good stats on rosin bag carrying abilities, sorry.

Jesus, do the math yourself if you don’t believe me. How many times are you going to move the goalposts here before you just admit Zambrano was great? First you raised a bunch of pitchers who weren’t as good, then when that didn’t work you came up with a longevity argument that not only did I debunk, but it actually made Zambrano look better.

You are also not breaking through the 1965 barrier. Ever hear of Mordecai Brown and Grover Cleveland Alexander?

I also couldn’t have been more clear I was talking about the modern era. But hey, Grover Cleveland Alexander was incredible, so I’m sure he blows Zambrano out of the water. Let’s take a look:

Zambrano: 37.1 (career), 4.1 (average)
Alexander: 37.6 (career), 4.17 (average)

As you can see, Alexander completely blows him out of the wa… oh, crap, wait, they’re basically even.

Modercai Brown was actually much better, though he played 100 years ago when I’m pretty sure players ran the bases using horse-drawn carriages. You can’t really compare Z to him because if Z had played in that era he would’ve been killed in a duel. That’s why I limited this to the modern era.

Um, keep trying I guess?

by Wreckard on Jan 8, 2012 9:08 PM CST up reply actions

I was pro Z even up until today in terms of keeping him on the Northside, but I do think that his stats (and stats in general) an be a bit misleading. Would anyone have considered him an ace’s ace? He certainly had his shut down moments, but can we speak of him in the same breath of the truly great pitchers of the last 5-15 years. Is or more importantly was he a Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or even a Josh Beckett caliber pitcher? How many people outside of a small circle of believers would pick him even in his prime to pitch a game 7? Before Prior’s arm fell off he would hardly even be considered the ace of the Cubs. I really loved/love the guy, but he wore out his welcome both on the field and allegedly in the clubhouse. I wish he would’ve helped bring us a pennant or a World Series a couple years ago, but unfortunately for his legacy our bats got cold at the wrong time. He should be remembered fondly for what he contributed in terms of stats and competitiveness (always saw him at the top of the dugout cheering his teammates on), but should be appropriately critiqued for his mental collapse, which financially turned out to be a bad move and showed on the field. Good luck in the NL East Z unless your playing or competing against the Cubs!

by gocubscubswin on Jan 5, 2012 7:32 PM CST reply actions

Where does Bill Hands rank in all this?

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by BeerCub on Jan 5, 2012 8:06 PM CST reply actions

His career bWAR is the exact same as Zambrano's

…and his Cubs war was 28.8 (as a pitcher only), which means his WAR / season was 4.1…. the exact same as Zambrano’s (when you include Z’s batting) oddly enough.

Apparently he was really bad with the bat though. His career bWAR as a hitter was -3.1.

by Wreckard on Jan 5, 2012 10:37 PM CST up reply actions

Yes, Hands was a terrible hitter.

Story Jack Brickhouse used to tell on WGN: Ron Santo and Ken Holtzman used to have a standing bet that Hands would never hit a home run. (Santo said no, Holtzman yes.)

Which led to the scene of Santo yelling, “NO!” (and you can hear him doing that, right?) when Hands hit a deep fly ball one day. It hit high off the CF wall for a double.

Sometimes when you hear stories like this, they are apocryphal. Not this one. I remember the exact game Brickhouse was talking about — this one on 9/4/1970.

Hands never did hit a home run. Lifetime he hit .078/.150/.091 — 37-for-472 — with 249 strikeouts.

The oddest thing about his hitting career was the 39 walks, including 15 in 1970 — none intentional. In all of Cubs history, only four pitchers with that many PA (561 as a Cub) had more walks as a hitter: Hippo Vaughn, Dick Ellsworth, Charlie Root and Fergie Jenkins.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 6, 2012 7:35 AM CST up reply actions

Wow, that .013 ISO has to be among the worst ever recorded.

by bdlugz on Jan 6, 2012 8:41 AM CST up reply actions

Hands had six career XBH, all doubles.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 6, 2012 9:36 AM CST up reply actions

and all accidents

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jan 7, 2012 9:01 AM CST up reply actions

One thing forgotten in the 2003 NLCS -

If Z pitched as well in game 1 as he did in game 5, or well at all for that matter, the Cubs sweep.

by the nth on Jan 5, 2012 11:44 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

Actually, Z didn't pitch very well in game 5.

Although he gave up just two runs in five innings, he issued four walks and threw 112 pitches and had to be pulled.

No one was going to beat Josh Beckett that day. He threw a two-hit shutout.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 6, 2012 7:37 AM CST up reply actions

Regardless, though...

if he pitches like he did in game 5, the Cubs sweep the series (AKA if he only gives up 2 runs and doesn’t implode in the early-goings of game 1)

Go Bulls! It's time to get #7.

by mikegncb34 on Jan 7, 2012 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Presuming the other games go the same way, sure.

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by Al Yellon on Jan 7, 2012 7:20 PM CST up reply actions

Excellent point.

Which renders all of this “curse” talk completely moot. And, little do some people know, we were up in Game 7. It just wasn’t meant to be.

by jeffmills1972 on Jan 7, 2012 2:41 PM CST up reply actions

I know he didn't pitch great. But as I said, pitching as well would have gotten it done in game 1.

by the nth on Jan 6, 2012 10:01 AM CST reply actions

Zambrano was great, but his exit from Chicago was long overdue.

Z is like the “bad boy” boyfriend/ex-boyfriend who constantly cheats on a woman or abuses her, but always apologizes and promises that “this time will be different”. After about 5 or 6 times that act has worn pretty thin.

by jeffmills1972 on Jan 7, 2012 2:43 PM CST reply actions

Yes, what Zambrano did totally compares to a domestic abuse situation

Jesus.

by Wreckard on Jan 8, 2012 9:10 PM CST up reply actions

I still remember Zambrano's no-hitter in 2008

I remember counting the outs every time he made one after six innings and the excitement was electric. Yes, it came after the Astros had to relocate their game due to Hurricane Ivan. Despite all the complaining people did about that, it’s still very difficult to pitch a no-hitter in the majors. It’s only been accomplished 272 times in the history of the majors, so Zambrano was able to join an exclusive club that day. I’ll always remember that. I also remember that I was hopeful of his abilities for a long time to come.

Unfortunately, it turned out to be the high water mark of his career. He had a lot of potential, but still managed to perform quite well when he was on. Injuries and outbursts proved to be his undoing. It is unfortunate because Zambrano is still very talented even if he is not at the level he was pitching a few years ago.

RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010) and Ron Santo (February 25, 1940-December 2, 2010).
If you disagree with me in any way, you are wrong.

by Ace Venom on Jan 8, 2012 10:47 AM CST reply actions

That list really highlights the fact the Cubs haven't had enough great pitchers the last 40 years.

by Rick B on Jan 12, 2012 9:00 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

we stinks!!

by daily2b on Jan 12, 2012 8:48 PM CST up reply actions

Rec'd

DUMP GARZA. CORRECT THE COSMIC WRONG.

by shoemile on Jan 13, 2012 2:27 AM CST up reply actions

Blah, blah, blah, Zambrano-cakes

Zambrano one of the three best pitchers of the modern era?

That just tells me the Cubs have pretty much sucked at finding pitchers in the modern era.

One of the more tiresome aspects of 2012 promises to be the legions of Zambrano fans who were too cowardly to come out when he was acting a fool carrying on like he was the greatest thing since Babe Ruth. And God help us every time he does something slightly above mediocre for the Marlins.

"It's all in the game, yo"

by Worf on Jan 13, 2012 12:41 PM CST reply actions

One of the more tiresome aspects of 2012 promises to be the legions of Zambrano fans who were too cowardly to come out when he was acting a fool carrying on like he was the greatest thing since Babe Ruth.

Way to take a stand against some people who probably don’t exist for doing something that hasn’t happened yet.

by Wreckard on Jan 16, 2012 10:03 AM CST up reply actions

Oh, it will happen

The first time he manages to get through an inning without actually pooping on the mound, we’ll have to deal with legions of “SEE! WE SHOULD HAVE KEPT HIM!!!” and you’ll have a stat that compares Zambrano’s pooping per inning ratio favorably with Sandy Koufax and it will be at least 1,000 posts before order is restored and we have shoved you Zambrano sycophants back in the attic.

"It's all in the game, yo"

by Worf on Jan 17, 2012 1:16 PM CST up reply actions

Well thank goodness that when this hypothetical thing happens you’ll be there to say something really gross that goes to far under the excuse of keeping everyone else in check.

by Wreckard on Jan 17, 2012 10:08 PM CST up reply actions

You're welcome

It’s heartening to see that someone appreciates what I bring to this board. I have to keep all of you in check when you go too far off the reservation.

"It's all in the game, yo"

by Worf on Jan 18, 2012 9:18 AM CST up reply actions

Zambrano is at best 4th

Z is probably the #5 starter: Jenkins, Reuschel, Maddux, then a toss-up between Sutcliffe, Hands, and Z. For one startt, I’d take Sutcliffe unless the game was at the Big Juice Box in Houston. For 60 starts, I’d take Hands or Z depending on the rest of my lineup..

Their best 3-year stretches as a Cub (B-R Pitching WAR, Batting/Defense WAR)
Jenkins, 23.6, +0.7 (1969-1971)
Reuschel: 18.7, +0.6 (1976-1978)
Zambrano: 15.1, +2.0 (2003-2005)
Hands: 18.0, -2.0 (1968-1970)
Maddux: 15.7, +0.1 (1990-1992)
Sutcliffe: 12.4, +0.5 (1987-1989)
Sutter, 12.1, 0 (1977-1979)

It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??

by Invalid User on Jan 14, 2012 12:32 AM CST reply actions