Very Early Projections: 2012 Season Standings

As the linked headline suggests, these are 'mostly useless' projections, but it's January and what else do we have to do?

The analysis behind this is quite good, if still early (using CAIRO projections, MLB 40-man rosters and simulating the season 100,000 times).

Cubs project to finish at 71-91 if you're an optimist and round up with a 1.01% chance of making the playoffs.

Surprisingly, they still project to finish fourth in the division, not that it's any consolation.

5 months ago friendly confine 9 comments 0 recs |

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Always interesting to peak at, even if they are "worthless".

What I always find interesting is that the projections are usually a lot more compressed than the actual standings end up being.

For instance… I find it hard to believe that 92 wins will get you the #1 seed in the NL…. or that only two teams will win more than 87 games. Likewise… only three teams failing to finish within five games of .500? Seems unlikely.

I also did like the title edit… adding “still” to their first version.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 5, 2012 12:42 PM CST reply actions

I find 92 wins for the NL to be quite reasonable

The Phillies are getting old very fast, Cards lost Albert, Milwaukee lost Fielder and (assuming suspension stands) Braun (oh boy I hope it does), the West hasn’t really improved IMO, and the Marlins are still the Marlins no matter what they do.

~Ronald Reagan has held the two most demeaning jobs in the country; President of the United States and radio broadcaster for the Chicago Cubs~ George F. Will

by unretrofied93 on Jan 5, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions

Those are all possibilities

but some team will break away, because someone (almost) always does.

NL teams who had 92 wins or more by year:
’11: 3 (high 102)
’10: 2 (97)
’09: 2 (95)
’08: 2 (97… memories….)
’07: 0 (T90)
’06: 1 (97)
’05: 1 (100)
’04: 4 (105)
’03: 2 (101, both over 100)
’02: 5 (101)
’01: 3 (93)
’00: 4 (97)

So 92 being the league best win total has happened exactly once since 2000 (just got tired of looking at that point… if someone wants to pull more data, be my guest). And only twice in those dozen seasons was the top total not 95 or higher (’01 & ’07).

So while it certainly isn’t impossible… I’d say it is improbable that 92 is the top win total in the NL.

As for the bottom figure…

NL teams who had 75 or fewer wins:
’11: 6
’10: 4 (so this is closer)
’09: 6
’08: 7
’07: 6
’06: 4 (closer)
’05: 5
’04: 6
’03: 6
’02: 6
’01: 5
’00: 6

In these dozen seasons, there’s never been 3 or fewer teams at 75 or less. And only twice was it as few as 4. Six stinkers seems to be the most likely outcome… which helps those top teams pile up wins.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Jan 5, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions

Sad to say...

…but, numbers aside, that’s about how I’d guess the NL Central will stack up. It’s Cards vs. Reds vs. Brewers with the rest lagging behind. I’d obviously love to be wrong.

"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach

by daver on Jan 5, 2012 1:55 PM CST reply actions

71 wins seems about right to me.

But I think Atlanta will better than Philly next year.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jan 5, 2012 4:09 PM CST reply actions

1% hmm....so you're saying there's a chance?

by Mitchener on Jan 5, 2012 6:30 PM CST reply actions

71-91?! Same as last season?

With all the departures and no one as good, err, as average or mediocre, to replace them, shouldn’t they be doing far worse? The 2012 Cubs look like they can have a 100 loss season or finish with 99 losses. Or are people assuming the 2011 Cubs were better than they performed at because Quade mismanaged them and Sveum’s mere presence means instant wins?

To me it looks like the Cubs & Astros will be fighting for 6th.

How do the 2012 Cubs compare on paper to other 95-100 loss teams since 2000?

by ddoubleheader on Jan 5, 2012 11:43 PM CST reply actions