3 questions to answer before Spring Training

1. Start Cashner in the bullpen to stretch him out/see if he’s healthy. Right now we have Garza/Dempster/Wood/Volstad/Wells as a probably rotation, which I’m fine with in a rebuilding year. Shark also wants to start. Make sure Cashner can throw 70+ healthy innings before trying to get him to throw 150+. If we move Garza then it’s a different story.

2. I trade Garza for a windfall or try to sign him for something like 4/$44M. He’s likely going to earn $20M in arbitration over the next two years, then figure $15M/year for his first two free agent years. So you sign him cheaper for the financial security he gets. If we get two elite prospects, one being a near MLB-ready SP with at least strong #2 upside… then you consider moving him.

3. I think Baker will platoon some with LaHair and Stewart. We’re likley not competing in 2012 and I’d say 2013 is unlikely either depending on moves. LaHair is cheap and cost-controlled… give him a shot. If he fails miserably it’s probably the difference between a 65 and 70 win season at the most.

4. I think you have to get at least $5M in savings a year to move Soriano. At 3/$54M that would be close to eating $40M max. He has very little value, even as a DH, so that’s the cost of doing business. It’s a sunk cost… get what you can… since it’s very likely not going to be decent prospects.

5. I see nothing available for 2B that’s realistic/fits in the apparent rebuilding plan. As far as I’m concerned, for at least one more year, if not two, Barney will likely provide surplus value in terms of on-field play vs. his contract… so until we find two TOR SPs and a long-term solution at 1B and 3B (I have my doubt about LaHair and Stewart as most do), then 2B is less of a priority.

…you can check this out.

Cubs Salary Spreadsheet

It’s got current salaries based on Cot’s, projected arbitration salaries from MLB Trade Rumors and MLB minimum salaries for players likely to receive that. I change this as new info comes in, and there’s always room for debate on just who will end up on the 25-man. I’ve found this to be a more complete/accurate estimation of the Cubs’ salary situaton moving forward than other sites.

I also do one for the Bulls and Bears.

up the actual work on a Fielder deal? I know I can’t believe everything I read but some writers are still saying the Cubs are still in on Fielder.

One: False choice, IMO. Cashner certainly should not be expected to post 170 IP. That’s nuts. He’s never thrown over 110 in a season. 140 is a more realistic target.

That said, he should absolutely, positively move forward as a SP if he is physically sound. This whole “durability issue” with Cashner is completely befuddling. He’s been hurt exactly once. It cost him most of the season, but frankly, I’ll attribute at least part of that to an underperforming Cub medical staff (they seem really, really bad at rehabbing players effectively… and in some cases having diagnosis issues).

If he’s healthy… there just isn’t a single logical reason to move him to the pen to start this season. As the OP noted… he’s more valuable as a starter. If being a starter isn’t working out, either for health or effectiveness reasons… he can always move to the pen later this year or to start next season. So I just can’t quite fathom why you’d send him to the pen to start the ‘12 season. And, no, "he’ll be better in the pen" isn’t a strong argument (at least without a lot more support).

Two: Debated to death already, not that I blame you for adding it to the list. Simple answer: you trade Garza if you get absolutely overwhelmed by an offer and/or if he makes it clear he’s ‘demands’ for an extension would be beyond where the Cubs see his value. He is absolutely a “starter you can build around”. That doesn’t mean he can’t be traded to make the club better in the long run.

Three: If there’s no Prince, then yes, he should be. Baker can be the RH platoon if needed, but I think you give BLH a chance against lefties under the “what do you have to lose, except games you’ll probably already be losing?” clause. Signing an Overbay/Pena/LaRoche kind of guy really makes little sense.

Four: IMO, probably. His power numbers strike me as awfully empty (though he had a little more “clutchiness” last year) and he seems a sure bet to continue to age poorly. File this under “sunk cost” and get what you can. I’m a little fearful of waiting another off-season, for fear of him getting more hurt and/or falling off a cliff, statistically.

Five:

but expecting more isn’t really realistic. A regression would mean lots of Blake DeWitt.

Why… on either account? DeWitt isn’t the solution to anything. On “expecting more”… why would it be out of the question for him to make modest improvements?

I’m not talking about him all of a sudden becoming an .800 OPS guy… but why couldn’t he see slight upticks in production with a little more experience under his belt? He went .276/.313/.353 (a devilish .666 OPS). Would .285 (like, 1 more hit a month) / .335 (take the additional hit and add one more walk a month) / .370 (more experience = more confidence = drive the ball a touch more) = .705 with plus defense. Is that really out of the question?

I know the Cubs are hurting for offense… and if they bring in a run producer who plays 2B, that’s cool. Barney should ideally be the worst hitter in your line-up to go along with his D. But I think he stays seeing as he is the Cubs’ best IF defender by a mile (and the only back-up SS).

I’d add a sixth question: who else gets signed? One of the Cuban players? Fielder? Other?

C – Soto, Castillo or Jaramillo
1B – LaHair
2B – Barney
SS – Castro
3B – Stewart
OF – Soriano, DeJesus, Byrd

Bench – Baker, DeWitt, Castillo/Jaramillo, Johnson, Campana/Jackson (doubtful if not starting)/Sappelt/Szczur (only here because he’s on the 40 man)

So that’s 13-14 players, probably going to only be four OF’s because Baker and DeWitt can play OF. I put LaHair at 1B because reports indicate at the moment that LaHair is your starter as of now and that Theo/Jed want Rizzo in the minors at least for the first month or so. The biggest problem, which has been the concern since the off season started, has been power. There’s not much. I’d expect LaHair to hit about 20, if he’s allowed to play the whole season. Stewart is a toss up. Byrd, Barney, and DeJesus will get about 20 between them. Soriano…well who knows. Castro could contribute another 15. Soto should rebound but you never know.

SP – Garza (I don’t think he’ll be traded), Dempster, Wood, Wells, Volstad

RP – Shark, Carpenter, Mateo, Maine/Gaub, Russell
SU – Wood (assuming he’s re signed)
CL – Marmol (Unless traded, don’t see it happening)

This isn’t a team that’s going to win anything. Once again, starting pitching is the weakness. The bull pen is actually pretty good, but Marmol makes us all nervous. he’s gonna have to prove he can do it this year. It’s all mechanical, which is both good and bad. I think mental is much worse. The good news is that Wood has proven he can close, so we have some insurance, given that he stays healthy. The bottom line is there needs to be another starter added. There’s depth in the minors for SP, but there needs to be someone who can be a 3 added. I think you need to replace Wells. This is a make it or break it year for him and I don’t feel confident that he’ll make it, and even if he does, he’s a fourth starter at best. I don’t like penciling Dempster in at the 2 spot but I don’t think there’s anything you can do on that this year. It’s his last year in his contract and after this year, you thank him for his service and move on. He’s getting older and his numbers have been declining every year since he signed his big deal.