Cubs Direction with the new 'suits'
As Capt. Obvious has now observed, and Dave Kaplan stated before the Chirstmas holiday that some skeptics here and other places deadpanned, the Cubs are truly in a complete rebuild. The Rizzo trade pretty much confirms that along with the follow up presser that Hoyer said:
Now there were other revealing thoughts that Hoyer is quoted at that presser including asking for fan patience;“Any time you go with young players, it’s the right thing to do. It’s exciting to have young talent in an organization, but there’s no doubt that with young talent comes an adjustment period. [...] With young players, there does come growing pains. It’s definitely something we’re prepared to deal with, and frankly, it’s the only way to rebuild a great organization..."[emphasis added]
"[...]With young players, there does come growing pains. It’s definitely something we’re prepared to deal with, and frankly, it’s the only way to rebuild a great organization … to have the patience to go through that with the right players.” [emphasis added]
or the plan regarding LaHair;
“The way we see it is Bryan [LaHair] had a terrific year last year in Triple-A and has been terrific this year in Venezuela. We see him as our first baseman. It’s likely Anthony will start the year in Triple-A.”[emphasis added]
But also the interesting subjective observation of Rizzo and the mental makeup of the thrice acquired prospect:
“He has fantastic makeup. After beating cancer when he was 19 years old, he’s a very strong individual. In San Diego I got to know him better than I did in Boston. He makes a big impression on his teammates and he’s an incredibly hard worker …. Overcoming cancer was incredibly impressive, but I think it’s a mistake if you just allude to his makeup that he overcame cancer. He’s a very strong person …. He’s a leader that can put our organization, our team on the right path as far as our culture. He’s a very impressive individual.” [emphasis added]
Now what was not stated but the actions also point to decisions made in consequence of building a great organization, where the following players were not retained or were traded; Not retained Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Koyie Hill, Rodrigo Lopez, Ramon Ortiz, Jeff Grabow, Luis Montanez, Doug Davis, and Ryan Flaherty & Marwin Gonzalez [through Rule 5] and still up for negotiation are Kerry Wood and Jeff Samardzijia.
Traded for value have been Carlos Zambrano, Andrew Cashner, Tyler Colvin, Sean Marshall and DJ LeMathieu (to date), while acquiring Chris Volstad, Anthony Rizzo, Travis Wood, Ian Stewart, Dave Sappelt and adding through FA or Rule 5 acquisitions; David DeJesus, Jeff Bianchi, Casey Wathers, Andy Sonnastine, Manny Corpas, and Lendy Castillo.
All these decisions speak louder than words. What they don't say is merely throwing money in a short term tactic to solve a long-term systemic problem of putting World Series talent on Wrigley Field as a guise or attempt to field a World Series contender. So forget about the Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. Ignore the press clippings regarding the Darvish's, at least until the Cubs are satisfied with their rebuilding plan and are filling in where there is a need.
What it also is speaking to are the decisions of the previous "suits" in the front office who made the decisions. Cashner was a number one choice, a player who was being asked to play out of position (starter) when he was a reliever and who got hurt. Traded away in a complete salary dump was Zambrano, a player who was no longer welcomed in the locker because of his emotional behaviors and even though talented was in retrospect overpaid and destructive. Traded was another number one draft choice who showed promise (Colvin) but completely fell apart last year for another who was had similar experiences along with another supplemental first round draft choice. Traded was a dominant role player (Marshall) for what was needed, young starting pitching.
Rosenthal of Fox Sports writes:
Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer are alarmed by the team’s lack of minor-league talent, and trading Garza would bring more young players into the system.
All this reminds me of an anecdote I once had in another industry when I was sitting in a new CEO's office who was expressing his (then secret) plans to overhaul a company that had fallen on hard times. He told me (as his headhunter) that his assessment of the company's human assets were all screwed up. That the previous regime had made such poor decisions that he couldn't trust any of their reasoning or premises, be it with people or business initiatives and that only a complete rebuild would put the company back in order. They had let go the best talent, kept the mediocre or political allies leaving a hollow shell of initiative or ambition to work with. That he was going to go to the Board with an aggressive plan to sell off some seemingly profitable, but growing mature business units but beforehand also use that plan to transfer as many dead weight executives and managers to those units as possible so he could bring in fresh talent which is where our help will be needed. He then spelled out a completely different kind of person or culture that the current company was used to bringing in.
This is what I see going on with the Cubs. And as Hoyer said:
[...] they're not done. When asked for a projected 2012 rotation, Hoyer said the Cubs are still looking to add more pitchers.
"We're not finished acquiring starting pitchers," Hoyer said on Friday. "We want to have as much depth as possible.
"At this point, we're still very much in the process of gathering as many quality arms as we can, and we'll put those pieces in place as we get closer to Spring Training," he said.
"We have worked hard, and we continue to work hard, and hopefully we'll have even more starting-pitching acquisitions," Hoyer said. "We want to go seven, eight, nine deep in the rotation and we hope to replenish the bullpen as well."
So IMHO I see the following happening as Spring Training approaches and even beyond.
- Soriano is traded in a Zambrano-like deal where the Cubs seek more pitching depth
- Byrd is traded for pitching and system depth
- Soto is evaluated and must return to his even year production
- Players like Samardzija, Barney, Wells, Coleman, Russell DeWitt, Baker and even Castro better show serious improvement if they are to remain.
- R Jackson, Vitters, Szczur, Lake, Gaub, Mateo, Castillo, Dolis, Bellivieu, Maine, Cabrera, Carpenter, and Clevenger current prospects on 40-man also better show great development or be ready to perform when called upon.
All these players were decisions made by Hendry and it appears that Epstein and Hoyer have little respect for those decisions. Yes Kaplan you were correct, the Cubs are in full rebuild! What also struck me was what they said about Rizzo's personality. As a cancer survivor they saw a grit and hard work. My guess is that that particular attitude is not being expressed, except with LaHair who has seemed to impress them when originally Hoyer didn't like that option.
“The way we see it is Bryan [LaHair] had a terrific year last year in Triple-A and has been terrific this year in Venezuela. We see him as our first baseman. It’s likely Anthony will start the year in Triple-A.” For my part, I’m pretty pleased with the plan. Not only could Rizzo use a little more time in AAA to work on his swing, this gives the Cubs a chance to get a long, serious look at LaHair without impeding any other moves. While I was not in favor of LaHair getting the nod at first base instead of the Cubs seeking out a more established or higher upside option, now that they’ve got Rizzo in the fold for the long-term, I’m pleased as punch to let LaHair get his shot...
I like this entire direction, it will pay dividends.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I agree.
Team Theo is building a team that in a few years we will all see the missing parts and one or two trades will put us in a position to get to the promised land. I’m sure all these moves will not pan out but if half do, we will be in position to add the right FA. Let’s face it, it had to be done and it’s getting done!
I think I will need an updated roster for spring training this year!
We'll miss you Big Boy. #10 is going into the Hall of Fame!!
Hey, it's been 103 years, what's another five years on top of that?
Honestly, I’d rather see this team take the next few years and rebuild into a dominant organization that can draft and draw talent up from the minors rather than see them stretch the budget and sign big stars on big contracts with the expectation that it will only possibly come together for 2-3 years then go back to complete shit for the next decade. Part of the game isn’t just winning, but managing and playing within your means like we have to on a daily basis. Now I know the Cubs are a big organization, one that can easily afford to go out and sign these names like a Prince Fielder, but why? Why inflate the market even more than it already is when you can do just as well working the other way around.
UMD Bulldogs: 2011 NCAA DI Men's Hockey Nat'l Champions; 2008 & 2010 NCAA DII Football Nat'l Champions
Well done again, Ivy...
…you sugar coated an awful year coming up, and made it now something I’m looking forward to. I’m really curious on this LaHair @ 1B is gonna play out. My question is this: What if, in spring training, BOTH Lahair and Rizzo just flat out “tear it up”? A great problem to have, but, still tho, a problem. They still send Rizzo down? They hide LaHair in the OF? Trade LaHair?
Happy New Year to all BCBers...be safe.
flip
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Ed and tim, I think Hoyer discussed this in the presser
"I’m never going to say never [with respect to Rizzo winning the first base job in Spring Training]. But that’s not the plan we are going into Spring Training with. In general, I think winning jobs in Spring Training is a very dangerous thing. That’s especially true with hitters in Arizona. The ball really flies there. A lot of hitters look good. A lot of things can deceive you in Arizona. The plan is that Bryan LaHair will be our first baseman and that Anthony will be in Iowa."
In other words as his previous GM they now know the brought him up too early. What specifically was not prepared for?
“To be candid, I don’t think I did Anthony any favors when I was the GM of the Padres. We called him up because we weren’t getting any first base production in San Diego. It was too early, and a mistake on my part, and I don’t think I did Anthony any favors there. […]
Any time you go with young players, it’s the right thing to do. It’s exciting to have young talent in an organization, but there’s no doubt that with young talent comes an adjustment period. The best prospects get through that adjustment period and they take off. It’s nice to have a team with upside, and you know that when they do go through that adjustment period, and can get past it, they can explode. With young players, there does come growing pains.[…]" "
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
I still think
LaHair is a chip to be flipped. If someone offers a decent pitching prospect 3 days before camp breaks, Theo Inc pulls the trigger and signs someone off of waivers to start at 1B and hit fifth.
This goes for almost anyone, if the return is solid.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
possibly
LaHair now is considered a stepping stone, (for him merely being in MLB is a big deal) but as events dictate so do decisions
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
I agree on most of the theory
but I think he’ll have to start the year with the Cubs and play well to fetch a “decent” pitching prospect. I don’t think you’ll get much more until there’s a little more track record at the ML level…. for the same reasons some/many have doubts about him being the 1B here. And for the record, I’m on the LaHair bandwagon.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Agree entirely.
But if he (or Soto, or Byrd, or…) get to the point where Theo gets what he wants, trigger is pulled.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
I don't know that anyone is safe from that trigger.
Including Starlin with this week’s developments. And nobody should be safe from that trigger either.
except Blakey
s/
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
If you listen precisely what Epstein and Hoyer say you are correct
They are about building an organization, (culturally since Sosa) the Cubs have been about individuals. Castro is a fine player at 21, but is he a fine SS? The stated plan is pitching, defense, athleticism, youth and more pitching, much more pitching.
With pitching you need defense, esp up the middle. Cubs up the middle defense in every position. Castro was dead last in UZR MINUS 8.7 in the NL…Byrd had an above average year with +2.2, Barney is a +5.5 (actually pretty good) and Soto ranked 3rd overall. Cubs have to improve the middle infield defense with a pitching oriented team.
I think developing player value (for trades) and team defense the Cubs in ST will need to switch Castro and Barney. There are roughly the same amount of chances for either position but showing the league Barney’s ability to play SS would enhance his trade value.
There also is a subjective quotient that Hoyer revealed when he was discussing Rizzo, (leadership and toughness). All these things come into play regarding the rebuild.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
There really is no intelligent argument to be made for
made for giving up on Castro as a SS at this point in time. Your whole premise is based on the dubious assumption that he cannot or will not improve.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 8, 2012 11:02 AM CST up reply actions
Disagree
Ivy. I mentioned somewhere else that Castro reminds me of Templeton. If you remember he was all hit no field when he came up. Castro same.
Castro like Templeton has some pretty good skills. With focus and good coaching along with a real commitment, I can see him becoming a pretty good short.
Ozzie Smith
Made as many errors at SS as Castro his rookie year and he was 3 years older. Give the kid a bit of time here.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
It's unfortunate that a large market team is so devoid of talent at the major and minor league levels that this is necessary.
But it is what it is. Hopefully the guys acquired moving forward are able to consistently contend. It may take a while, but I like what’s being built thus far.
DUMP GARZA
Nice post.
But would you please edit your first sentence? The phrase “total incomplete rebuild” is bad karma.
Good summary of the off-season!
Its not the Sveum ol' song.
really nice write-up Ivy Walls,
when I was reading your anecdote, in the CEO’s office, I couldn’t help but think of Ricketts….this is the book I would LOVE to read, tho it’s only into the first couple chapters right now. This is history, I just know it, and I’m glad I’m cognizant of it. One day this will make the greatest baseball movie ever….the biggest baseball transformation in MLB history.
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
For those of you into the show Suits,
Theo is Harvey
Jed is Mike
Craney Kenney is Louis
Ricketts is Pearson.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Haha, perfect...
I can totally see Kenney fitting in as Louis.
no Meghan Markle, though.
Weep.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
I'm not as optimistic
I think Theo/Jed are operating a little too small-townish, but we’ll see how it works out.. If more of these young players turn out to be busts, then what? What’s Plan B?
You’ve got to have a mix, and there’s no reason you can’t build a farm system and still take care of the parent club.
Cubs fans used to complain for years that the Trib never would spend any money. Now they’re complaining they spend too much money.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 7, 2012 6:47 PM CST reply actions
What players went
below their price point this off season? Not many.
Hence, not much major action from Theo Inc
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Plan B
is actually Plan A.
The framework is to build up the system such that you’re not relying on one or two prospects to pan out, as the Cubs have in recent years. There will be sheer volume to ensure a flow of young contributors.
The next step is to acquire cost-controlled young players at the ML level who can fill out your roster, with some upside to boot. So welcome Stewart, TWood, Volstad, et al.
Then you start buying expensive pieces when they fit your price point. Theo/Jed clearly judged that Prince wouldn’t come down enough in AAV and/or years. So they moved on. They didn’t put in a $54M bid just to talk to the best available pitcher.
I’m more than confident they’ll start spending and acquiring higher price tag guys as early as next off-season.
And you’re absolutely positively right that you “need a mix”. But currently, the Cubs are lacking in talent, both young and old. So, in that case, it doesn’t make much sense to impulse buy other “old” talent.
And there will still be money spent this year. The off-season still isn’t over. I’d be rather surprised if one of the “expensive” Cuban OFs isn’t signed by the Cubs.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
by fsuapollo on Jan 7, 2012 7:11 PM CST up reply actions 7 recs
We'll see
I hope you’re right, but if these guys don’t pan out and there’s no money to spend on free agents, there could be no getting out of this downward spiral.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 7, 2012 10:46 PM CST up reply actions
Theo will have a price target in mind for them
If the price for Soler brings him in, send him to Peoria. If Cepesdes target brings him in, send him to Tennessee/Iowa.
It’s about the price target. If someone else ‘overspends’ Theo’s price target, tip your cap. Try for the next one.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
that is called management~the willingness and ability to say NO to a bad deal
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
And if that price target is ridiculously low,
you’ll never sign anybody.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 10:54 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
and if they never sign anybody, they'll have to forfeit all their games.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
And you know what?
Maybe spend some on a player who can help the ream RIGHT NOW, not maybe — maybe — in two or three or four years.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
No money to spend?
There is money when the time is right. This isn’t a downward spiral. Hendry had the team on a downward spiral. Theo and Co are trying to stop it.
I don’t understand all the negativity. Would you have preferred another Hendry special of Carlos Beltran in RF for 3 years/$36 million?
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
We'll see if you're right
So far, I see no evidence of that.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
Why?
Because they didn’t sign Carlos Beltran? Other than Fielder, who did you want to see the Cubs spend big bucks to acquire?
Here is your downward spiral….97, 83, 75, 71. You have severely overestimated this team if you think a Carlos Beltran type signing was going to make this team competitive.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
Meatball
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Jan 8, 2012 8:21 PM CST up reply actions
I'll bet your folks think you're clever
when you tell them that after they call you upstairs for dinner.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 11:11 PM CST up reply actions
i'm not sure what you're getting at
they do think i’m clever when i tell them that
Just wee-un.
by jesus christos on Jan 8, 2012 11:37 PM CST up reply actions
Well, there you go
Joe and Mary have pretty good senses of humor, it appears.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 11:56 PM CST up reply actions
This isn't Pittsburgh!
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Jan 9, 2012 6:15 AM CST up reply actions
There's also no evidence to disprove it.
But I’d also echo rlpete’s post. Who did / do you want the Cubs to spend money on?
Fielder, we know. But it didn’t happen. I’ve got to say that I’m not sure I’m 100% behind not pursuing him more vigorously, either. But, such is life.
So who else did you want the Cubs to buy to help them RIGHT NOW? Edwin Jackson at $4/48?? Madson? Maholm? Saunders?
I’m seriously asking… who did you want the Cubs to spend on? Out of who is still unsigned… who would you want the Cubs to pursue?
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Fielder, of course
and perhaps Maholm. Otherwise, no.
I guess the proof will be coming, provided the budget doesn’t get cut if attendance drops next season (which it almost certainly will).
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 11:13 PM CST up reply actions
Of course we have to wait and see
but this cleaning house in no way indicates that the Cubs are now trying to be a small market team. They are spending in other numerous ways. They have significantly increased front office expenditures. I don’t think Epstein and Hoyer both would have come here to run Pittsburgh-West as you like to say.
The Cubs won 71 games last year with an aging team. Trying to patch that team with another veteran contract or two would be treading water at best. It wasn’t going to result in an improvement of 20 wins.
The plan seems to be to get as much value from the aging veterans on the team. I have no doubt that the Cubs will spend on free agents when the time is right. I was in favor of signing Fielder but not if some of the rumored contract demands are true. The Cubs are still several years away so I’m not overly upset on losing out on him.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
And if you don't make moves like that,
you’re always going to be several years away. That’s the problem.
Building the farm system and making the big club better aren’t mutually exclusive things.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 9, 2012 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
I agree and I don't expect that the farm system is the only option.
Adding a Carlos Beltran type player to this team would not have helped. No one is adding 20 wins to this aging club. The only good free agent option would have been Fielder and he seems to be asking for the moon with a out clause too.
I don’t think the Cubs will wait until 2015 to sign free agents. They might next year but there has to be players that make sense. I didn’t see much this year based on where this team is.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
Maybe, but at some point it becomes
a chicken-or-egg question.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 9, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
It can be both.
Realistically looking at the 2011 team, would you have preferred to have them resign Ramirez for 3 more years and Fielder for 9 or 10? Even if they do that, I don’t see how swapping out Pena for Fielder adds 20 wins to basically the same team yet with Ramirez, Soriano and Byrd another year older.
I understand the desire to continually try and win but I see no realistic way that the 2012 team could be a serious contender.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
by rlpete on Jan 9, 2012 11:52 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
At some point, sure.
But the Cubs haven’t even played a single exhibition game yet under Theo’s watch.
Given his track record, there’s no reason to believe he plans on “going young” year after year after year.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Why would you assume the Cubs will not have money to spend?
That makes zero sense.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 8, 2012 9:27 AM CST up reply actions
But who said there's no money to spend?
Just because they’ve chosen to not spend big money this off-season doesn’t mean they’re hesitant/afraid/unwilling to spend more for the coming seasons.
Heck even if the 2012 payroll gets no bigger than it is right now and they chose to keep that number level for 2013, there would still be “big money” to spend from the dollars rolling off for Z, Dempster, and (to a lesser extent) Byrd. That’s $35M right there (less arb raises for the guys who stay).
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
I think by then other payroll liabilities will come off as well
Soto?, Marmol? and part of Soriano (or at least a Z type of deal)
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Downwrd spiral
has been happening for the last couple years. I for one like the direction they are taking. I look forward to seeing new and different players that at minimum due to the unknown, gives me hope that the downward spiral we have been in will turn around.
Absolutely, bill.
Enough of the Hendry years where there was a window of competition that slammed shut when the big contracts declined and there wasn’t enough coming up through the minors to make up for it. Folks who just want it to magically get better haven’t watched this team the past couple years. It sucks, absolutely, but it’s a fact of life. So the Cubs can stubbornly attempt to turn a 70 win into a 75 win team, but if those moves are made without a concern for the future, what turned a 70 win team into a 75 win team may turn a 95 win team into a 90 win team in a few years.
DUMP GARZA
And if the Cubs lose every game they play next season, it's gonna really suck
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Your comment
about spending money. You are correct for years fans (not only Cubs, Bears as well) have complained about being a tad too tight with the money. Now as you say some are complaining about spending too much money.
Maybe so, but outside of a couple years by a couple players, the long term high dollar contracts have not exactly panned out. I believe this is why many would tend to shy away from offering say a Fielder that kind of contract. The ole saying fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me kind of applies to somes view point of putting out once again on long term contracts.
Just because some big-dollar contracts haven't panned out
doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be offered.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
I will not
argue that stance. But currently let them get a feel for what they have and what they don’t have. This might take a year or two. If any of these pickups turn out to be something, at that point you have narrowed down your needs.
Now I understand.
You are Scott Boras.
The sun is up. They sky is blue. It's beautiful, and so are you. Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play? ~Lennon & McCartney
by SouthWabashSoul on Jan 8, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
But this is where you start to slide down the slope
NOBODY is saying the Cubs shouldn’t offer “big-dollar contracts”.
We don’t know exactly what the Cubs have or haven’t offered this off-season. We know they didn’t have the highest bid for Darvish, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t have paid a lot of money overall if they had won the bid.
I’ll assume they made a bid on Pujols… but 10/$250M doesn’t seem like a great long-term investment.
CJ Wilson @ ~$14M/year? Eh… if the Cubs were one SP away, sure.
They apparently judged that Fielder would come down far enough on either years or dollars to make them comfortable with the contract. But isn’t this really the only “big-money” decision that really be all that questioned this off-season?
Maybe more explicitly… would you care to state why you believe a) the Cubs haven’t offered any big money deals and/or b) why you think they won’t?
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Again, I don't know where you get off saying that
A lot of people here have said they shouldn’t offer big-dollar contracts. They figured they got burned by them before. Perhaps, but that’s no reason not to offer one.
I don’t know why they haven’t, but if revenue decreases the next few years, it makes sense to think their ability to offer big-dollar deals will be compromised.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 11:16 PM CST up reply actions
I have no problem offering a big money contract
But Longoria and David Price are under contract elsewhere.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
I "get off" saying that
because it is true.
Can you please find a single poster who has said we should not offer a big-dollar contract under any situation??
Much like with the idea of never ending rebuilding (which nobody is in favor of)… you seem to be projecting the desires of some posters to not sign big-dollar contracts this off-season to mean those contracts should never be offered.
The only other trend you could be drawing from is the desire of several posters to limit contract length to say, 6 years. Whether you agree with that year limit or not… every poster here is still willing to dole out long-term deals. And, to me at least, anything 4 years or over (1 Presidential term) is a long-term deal.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
by fsuapollo on Jan 9, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Good job
Ivy. I for one regardless of wins this season, am very excited about all that and will happen. Next move is to rid ourselves of Soriano, no matter the cost. I have confidence that they will not only move him, but get something in return that will benefit the team,
Bill, Soriano is a big release
It removes the biggest cultural representation of the previous regime, the focus on the individual instead of the team. It removes players thinking this guy is making f+@%!#& $18M for this kind of effort.
If it is possible to sign Cespedes and then have him go to AA or AAA for part of the year while putting Bryd or RJackson in LF it would be the best.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
I don't think players or most of the fans questioned if the effort was worth $18 million.
It was the production that was not worth the price tag.
Soriano...
by all accounts, is a hard worker and good teammate.
There’s no cultural reason to get rid of Soriano.
D98 mistaken, a hyperbole as in a funny or revisionism as in trying to make a new fact to confirm a prejudice
That's why he said
there’s no cultural reason to get rid of him.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 11:16 PM CST up reply actions
the issue is not Soriano in person
It is Soriano in ‘institution’, $18M for production that is what $5M value. I once worked in an environment where a former high end producer was still paid as a high end producer but was there to care-take an old set of ‘supposed marque’ accounts. We all had to bust our asses, get reviewed and scolded for production expectations unmet (unreasonable as they were) and yet he was not treated the same.
On one level I understood that a decade or two earlier he placed the firm on the map and cut a deal with the partners when he didn’t have the personal cash to buy in that he could stay for life because of his accounts that the firm used to grow,
He was a great guy and actually worked pretty hard but the private animosity among others who found out how much he was paid was destructive. It is human nature.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Not exactly the same
It’s good for other players when someone gets overpaid. It raises the salary bar.
Step Three: Patience. The plan is in place.
by Shanghai Badger on Jan 9, 2012 9:48 AM CST up reply actions
Did you read what I wrote?
D98 mistaken, a hyperbole as in a funny or revisionism as in trying to make a new fact to confirm a prejudice
I think they'll wait until next year to do that.
Keep Byrd up for half the season, then trade him and let Jackson take over center. Maybe see if Soriano can bounce back and OBP over .300. He’ll have a higher trade value with one less year on his contract. Besides, unless Jackson comes up early, I don’t see anyone to man left field in the system.
DUMP GARZA
Ideally
Move Soriano and if Jackson proves himself in ST put him in CF move Byrd to left. In a perfect world I would like to se Byrd as the 4th OF along with Johnson. Give hime 250-300 AB. It would strengthen the bench and face it, Byrd and Johnson as your two spare OF is not bad at all.
Assume Jackson sticks and is the starting CF, we would need a LF to be able to have Byrd and Johnson on the bench. Any ideas out there for a lf?
He might see some bounce back
His babip was .266 last year. His career babip is .302. If he had a league avg babip then his avg would around .270. His walk rate was down a lot from a year ago too. So his OBP could come back to .320.
Good job, Ivy.
I think if you follow the entire Cubs organization as people on BCB do, you have to be happy with the direction things are going. The casual fan, that’s not really aware how barren of talent Hendry left the minors or even how important a team’s minor league system is to the big club’s success year-after-year, are pissed to see the “big names” of Z, ARam and Marshall leaving. The casual fan is saying, “But those are our best players!”
I’m happy to have people running the team who aren’t trying to please the casual fans anymore. The idea of having a couple of high-payed home run guys and a good pitcher or two who can keep the team around .500 and then, maybe every five years or so win a division with a team with a short shelf-life. It will cost the Cubs some ticket sales in the short run, but the casual fans will be back.
As for me? I’ve had season tickets for almost 25 years. I was going to get rid of them if Ricketts didn’t do something fairly drastic. He did, I’m back and I’m excited. I foresee a summer at Wrigley Field and surrounding watering holes of explaining to the casual fans why this is a god thing.
by the nth on Jan 8, 2012 10:44 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
The casual fan is als the one who pays most of the freight
I’m not necessarily opposed to what Theo and Jed are doing, but right now it’s very Pittsburgh-esque. There needs to be some balance.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Pittsburgh doesn't have guys signed to contracts worth tens of millions of dollars.
The Cubs do. Although one of them is a Marlin now, but they’re still picking up the freight. So there’s your balance.
DUMP GARZA
by shoemile on Jan 8, 2012 11:05 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Pittsburgh also can't afford to have guys signed to those kind of contracts
The Cubs can.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 11:18 PM CST up reply actions
And because of the Soriano contract
we can’t afford 2 other good players. We have to dump the sour milk before we refill the container.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Bad analogy
The Cubs’ refrigerator is big enough for two containers, in other words, the Cubs can afford a contract like Fielder is looking for even with Soriano still on the payroll.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 13, 2012 7:39 AM CST up reply actions
the difference between Pittsburgh and the Cubs rebuilding is next year's payroll budget
Next year there will be more FA available including TOR pitchers:
Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson and Erwin Santana. In the position arena will be; BJ Upton, Andre Ethier, Shane Victorino, Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, David Wright, Brandon Phillips, Robinson Cano, Brian McCann, a couple of Molina’s.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
I'm not crazy about any of those position players
except Cano, who will have his option picked up. The rest have some pretty significant weaknesses or injury histories.
The pitching, otoh, is very intriguing.
The sun is up. They sky is blue. It's beautiful, and so are you. Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play? ~Lennon & McCartney
by SouthWabashSoul on Jan 8, 2012 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
Franky, none of these people will likely ever be Cubs
Haren and Santana will be re-signed. Arte Moreno isn’t going to invest in Pujols and then blow off pitching. Greinke isn’t suited for Chicago, Hudson will be 38, and if you think Philly is letting Hamels get away, that’s pretty funny. I’d agree with South Wabash’s assessment of the position players.
Help bring Boys of Spring The Movie to life!
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I'm not sure Philly can afford to keep Hamels for the contract he's going to command.
It’s not out of the question at all that he or Cain hit FA.
The Giants have a tough decision
it is questionable they can afford what Cain will demand next year and pay what Lincecum wants now to extend his deal, so one has to go it seems.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 8, 2012 1:27 PM CST up reply actions
Ya it seems unlikely many of the TOR pitchers will reach the market
Cain seems the most likely. Then we will most likely be in a bidding war with the Yankee’s and Red Sox.
Dodgers and their new owner will be looking to make a splash as well
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
So ... get ready for more disappointment?
Again, Pittsburgh West.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 8, 2012 11:18 PM CST up reply actions
The only way to be disappointed is expecting to win them a WS this year
Other than that, there’s a lot to be excited about. That you chose to ignore the need for a rebuild or think that a rebuild can be done within 2 month if you just sign a big bat to go along with it, that’s really a somewhat idiosyncratic POV on your side, to put it mildly.
Obviously people have different opinions on whether signing Fielder would have been wise. But that they didn’t won’t doom the Cubs forever.
by DamageControlFreak on Jan 9, 2012 2:20 AM CST up reply actions
If A then... Z???
Wow – that’s a stretch even for you, NBF. With a reach like that, maybe you should be playing 1B for the Cubs.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I might be better
than LaHair. But then again, that line is long.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jan 9, 2012 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
TheoJed were pretty straightforward about a rebuild from day 1.
I don’t know what took Kaplan 2 months to figure that out.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
by SackMan on Jan 8, 2012 10:09 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
well
start with the fact that it’s Kaplan…
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jan 8, 2012 11:26 PM CST up reply actions
When a competent regime...
…takes over from one that “wasn’t so competent”, there is usually a period of exploration the new regime goes through to find out just how screwed up everything was. Many times, the situation is worse than expected as you dig further and this is likely what Theo and his team have been seeing over the past couple of months.
There are no “short term” fixes and it is going to take a while for Theo to get this even close to where he wants it.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Jan 9, 2012 10:47 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
My thought as well.
As I mentioned above, the Cubs won 71 games last season. It was also the 3rd straight year of declining wins. Considering the fact that this was an aging club, it was unlikely to expect much of a bounce-back.
Theo and Jed were not going to find the free agents to add 20 wins to this team. They were not going to make a Hendry type move of adding Beltran in hopes of some big turnaround. 2012 is the tear-down season before the building starts.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
The building has already started,
if you consider adding Torreyes and Cates a good thing.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
How about Rizzo, Volstad, Sappelt, T. Wood
according to MLB.com we now have the number 18 (Rizzo) and 29 (Jackson) overall prospects.
By position
1B Rizzo #1
3B Vitters #4
OF Jackson #5, Szczur #9
Add these to Castro, Clevenger, Castillo, Garza, and even Barney and that becomes a pretty good base.
MLB.com had a higher opinion than most...
It seems from everything I am seeing, the Cubs now have 2-3 top 50ish prospects in Rizzo, Jackson, and Baez. I don’t think any of them will see the top 30 in many rankings.
There is mixed opinion on Szczur as some see him in that top group while others have him a tier below although he should be on top 100 lists.
Vitters is falling in the view of scouts every year he doesn’t break out. He might make some top 100 lists. McNutt and Maples are borderline plus prospects on the mound while the rest of the Cubs are typically viewed as borderline prospects with various aspects of risk and upside.
It seems the Cubs prospect talent is thought of as top half in baseball now.
Upside with a lot of risk
Baez has the most recognizable upside in the system but often ranked below Jackson and Rizzo since he is less proven and father away. Other players like Candelario also have a lot of upside at the plate but a lot of unknown still exists. The same goes for a lot of the young international talent. Vogelbach is plus hit/power potential if he can keep his weight down and play 1B. We are going to find out a lot this year about a load of young prospects with “potential” who should get their first taste of full season baseball.
Not that any of you know who I am yet...
But I agree with the opening thoughts. I like what has occurred so far. The Cubs have added short term contracts who are solid defenders with some offensive potential. Add that to collected young arms and some decent young talent, they are heading in the right directions.
As far as Cub spending, I have no concerns they will hand out the big money when the situation is right. There isn’t a big name free agent this winter that presents the right situation. The Cubs would have to pay handsomely for declining years when those signings would not create a contending team in the short term. Even players like Darvish and Cespedes present enough risk for the price tag that I expected the Cubs to be beaten for both players by teams who want to make a big splash now.
The one area I would be surprised to not see significant spending is in the area of young international players. I will be disappointed if the Cubs don’t add Soler and they probably are looking at every available player and will sign any potential.
While in the future I do see the Cubs spending big money again on the major league roster, I don’t that time is coming at time soon. I expect that next offseason will be very similar in low cost free agency adds and trades being the strategy. Only if a player has significant prime years left will the Cubs spend big money and of course those players are rare.
There are two roads the Cubs will possibly go down. The favorable road is that the youth become building blocks. Enough of Castro (defensively), Jackson, Rizzo, Szczur, McNutt, etc… emerge in the next two years that the pieces needed can be signed or traded for to create a contender in 2014 and beyond. They can continue to build up the system while entering every year expecting to contend.
The less desirable road is that we go into 2014 with very little in building blocks as Rizzo and Jackson are .230 hitters and Castro is still approaching 30 errors. Then what happens? Do they continue to depend on low cost major league additions while the retooling the system continues? Or do they begin to hand out the risky contracts overpaying for down years that free agency brings solely to appease the fan base?
But that scary thought is at least a full year away from worrying about. I am excited about watching a team that plays good defense (c’mon Starlin), hustles, and is worth cheering. I think they will better the 71 wins and be better than most seem to think. I am not planning anything in October but I am just saying this team will be a much better product then what we have watched the last couple years even if they don’t hit .500. And we still have some time to get rid a certain someone and maybe add a couple more pieces that fit what this team is doing.

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