Minor League Ball - Sickels' Top 20 Cubs Prospects
John Sickels released his Cubs top 20 prospects with some good analysis of the players and the system as a whole. John basically backs up what a lot of us have been saying here: the system has very few high impact players at upper levels, but are loaded with potential talent in the low minors.
2012 is going to be a very interesting year to see how this team pans out, and hopefully we can see a lot of those C+ prospects progress and turn into B- or B prospects for next years lists.
5 months ago
bdlugz
61 comments
3 recs |
Comments
Thanks for posting - I was very eager to see what Sickels had to say about our system.
Interesting to note that the 2nd, 16th, 18th, and 19th ranked prospects were TheoJed’s doing. It will be fun to follow both the transformation, (additional TheoJed acquisitions), and progression, (advancement of our current prospects), of our farm system over the course of the next year or two.
by Naveen Nallappa on Jan 9, 2012 11:50 AM CST reply actions
It is interesting that Sickels reports the Cubs as having near 30 C+ prospects...
Not many teams can claim that kind of depth. The key now is turning some of those C+ into better prospects through strong development – something we’ve been sorely lacking for too long.
the 'depth thing'
I have heard before. The quality thing is still a bit lacking.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Sure - it's a bottom half team in terms of quality at this point
But it does have potential, at least.
But the depth could turn into quality in a hurry
Even with the graduation of BJax and Rizzo to the big league squad, it’s very conceivable that the farm is ranked higher at this time next year than it is right now. So much stinking potential in the lower levels.
If Baez and Maples and Vogelbach...
start out impressively, the system will make an impressive move up the rankings, even with Rizzo and Jackson graduating.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Jan 12, 2012 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
Eyes on Peoria,
one way or another.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
And
by The Power of Three (Jed, Theo, and Josh), that will soon seep upward to Daytona, Tennessee, and someday, even Chicago. I doubt Iowa games will be captivating viewing for awhile. Unless Rizzo is hitting.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
for general viewers
I’d agree. I’m still fairly intrigued with some possibilities in AAA (at least, on paper possibilities as of now).
- Alberto Cabrera – saw him still with a low-mid 90’s fastball and ripped off some nasty sliders. He’s simply not a starter caliber arm (changeup, inconsistent command … although if he’s a starter in 2012, I do look for him to improve a decent amount). In the pen? I’m curious.
- Nick Struck – dang young, but he still could touch mid-90’s at times. Was way rushed (honestly, would not be against sending him to AA for more seasoning). More end of the rotation type, but he still has some slim “3” type potential.
- Vitters will likely head to Iowa. While I’ve never been the biggest Vitters guy, his age and the fact that he didn’t stink in AA should be reason enough to keep an eye on him.
Of course, there’s Rizzo/BJackson, and then there’s likely Steve Clevenger, a guy who I still have an inordinate, irraitonal amount of interest in as a solid defensive catcher with enough offensive ability to not embarass himself. Blake Parker is still around, and I almost feel like he went from eh, to being a bit under-the-radar (I could see him, if the opportunity came, put together a couple decent setup level seasons). And I’ve talked about Rebel Ridling elsewhere. Besides an awesome name, he’s a solid enough athlete to play LF, and he showed enough to gather attention.
I’d also add in that there’s a chance Kevin Rhoderick and Marcus Hatley are in Iowa,
don't forget about tennessee
There’s a potential rotation there of McNutt/Rhee/Antigua, with Whitenack/Beeler possibly fitting in there. No TOR guy, but all five of those would have some level of “3” ceiling potential (although Antigua is realistically, probably more of a “4/5” ceiling, relative to how scouts roughly judge things). Positionally, it doesn’t look like that intriguing a crop, but there is Jae-Hoon Ha and whether or not he really carries plus defense in CF (some have stated that, although Mike Newman was adamant in a chat that he took poor routes). But on those starting pitchers alone, Tennessee should hold enough Cubs fans attention*.
- - of course, I’m assuming McNutt goes to AA. I guess there’s a remote chance for him to head to AAA, but my hunch is AA (and AAA has enough options on hand in, potentially, Struck, Coleman, Rusin, maybe Alberto Cabrera (though would still love to see him in the pen just going mid-90’s fastball/nasty slider), maybe Jay Jackson.
also, it’s obviously not certain Whitenack/Beeler head there. Beeler could use time in A+ polishing up his breaking pitches to go with his sinker, and Whitenack is just tough to figure right now. The likelihood is probably high that a Jokisch, or maybe a Harman, or perhaps even Raley, fit back into the AA rotation to start 2012.
At the convention
… they said Whitenack probably starts at Daytona.
Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation's Baseball Nation
that was the news out of the convention
I’ll be honest, wouldn’t surprise me if he had a delayed start, perhaps getting going in May. I’ve noted it elsewhere, but I am fairly bullish on Beeler. The command held in AA, and the stuff wasn’t bad … just inconsistent. He was definitely not ready for it, but the fact that he held his own is positive it enough.
I'm quite bullish on Beeler as well
He was always one of my favorite arms we selected from that draft. #3 potential. Also watch out for Austin Reed. Maybe he puts it together this year.
reed's been what i expected
i thought he got a bit over-hyped a year ago, but i’m neither up or down on reed. he’s basically the inconsistent guy that had to be expected based off pre-draft reports.
I think he’s a good sleeper to watch because if he can be a bit more consistent on the mechanics, and there were positive steps last year, then he might be more consistent on all his pitches, and he can already get opponents to pound the ball into the ground.
I failed to mention him...
but a lot of it hinges on Szczur. He’s a big reason they’re ranked as high as we are. He’s basically the bridge between Jackson and Vogelbach, so if he falters, it will look dry in the interim. McNutt could step up and make up for it too though.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Jan 16, 2012 5:45 PM CST up reply actions
Plus the fact we have the sixth overall pick and two supplemental picks.
Good debuts from a couple top picks could really help.
After the good 2011 draft signings
The minor league updates will be very interesting next season.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
During the minor league season, the
majors are covered here? Who knew?
kidding
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
If Vogelbach turns into an elite power hitting prospect
And Rizzo is succeeding in the Majors… is Rizzo athletic enough to move to a corner OF position?
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
Vogelbach is 4 years away
at best.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Yeah, don't worry about it
By the time Vogelbach is ready (IF he is ready), Rizzo will have either failed or will be getting expensive. If he’s good enough, we sign Rizzo long-term and deal Vogelbach. If he’s not, we deal Rizzo or let him walk.
But the bottom line is that the odds are against both of them being elite players. The odds are much better than one or the other is going to succeed.
i refuse to believe that you have a last name
Just wee-un.
by jesus christos on Jan 9, 2012 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
Ha.
I didn’t even put it together that this was the former Josh77. I must be having another slow day.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
There is a landscpaing guy by me named Timmers
is it a common name?
Saw a write-up somewhere on Rizzo that said he doesn't have the tools for the OF
But that is an issue for another day. And if it becomes an issue it is a good thing, because it means that both Rizzo and Vogelbach are major leaguers.
It's not ideal
but my guess is that Rizzo could play a passable LF (passable doesn’t mean average, though.)
All that said, if another first baseman emerged or was signed, Rizzo would be far more valuable as a trade chip to address other needs.
Not to add anything to the discussion...
But I’m glad to see you posting around here again
I am kind of surprised that Torreyes is as low as he is.
The system must not be that bad if an 18 year old can hit .356/.398/.457 in A ball and be ranked 19. I understand the size concerns, but I was still a little surprised. Really anxious to follow him and see if he can hold his own in Daytona.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
Sickels sometimes rates players closer to the majors a little higher.
A lot can go wrong with a young prospect. That said, Torreyes has the same grade (C+) as the 8th player (Lake). As he usually says, the order can change based on what you value more in a prospect. Personally I would not rate Lake as 8th.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
main concern is this
I’m a lot less enthused about Torreyes than most. It admittedly isn’t fair in some respects – the kid does hit. The problem is, for a guy who only has one good tool, succeeding at the lower level against weaker pitching only tells so much. Could be that he’s an exception to the rule, about to push forward, but it’s also quite possible that he gets eaten up by upper level pitching.
Actually, let me post today’s askba, which had a lot of juicy comments on the Cubs.
When I listed my personal overall Top 50 in the 2012 Prospect Handbook, I had Brett Jackson at No. 28, Javier Baez at No. 31 and Rizzo at No. 42, so that would put Rizzo third on an updated Cubs list. I like Rizzo’s power potential and think he’s the third-best first-base prospect in baseball (behind the Astros’ Jonathan Singleton and the Padres’ Yonder Alonso), but Jackson and Baez are up-the-middle players and Baez has the bat to be an impact player if he moves down the line.
None of Chicago’s other acquisitions would crack the Top 10. There’s depth in the farm system, so if I were updating the Cubs Top 30 I wrote for the Handbook, I’d put Torreyes, Cates and Sappelt (in that order) in the back half of that list. Torreyes is a career .364 hitter in the lower minors, but he’s also 5-foot-7 and lacks a second standout tool, so he’s really going to have to max out what he has to make it as a big league regular. Cates has a strong arm but is relatively new to pitching and has a lot of work to do, while Sappelt looks like a fourth outfielder who’s overmatched in center field.
In our preliminary system rankings in the Handbook, we put Chicago at No. 14. When we release our final rankings this spring, the Cubs’ moves will push them up a spot or two.
As for Volstad, I thought he was a nice pickup in the Carlos Zambrano trade. Chicago might have released Zambrano if it couldn’t have traded him. Though the Cubs had to eat $15 million of Zambrano’s $18 million salary for 2012, they got a young, durable starter. Volstad may not be more than a No. 4 starter because he doesn’t miss enough bats, but he’ll help Chicago more than Zambrano would have.
I still personally have Rizzo ahead of Baez, even though I’m lukewarm on Rizzo. I get the feeling, on other sites, that some people are marking out on the prospects in the Reds/Padres trades because it’s a TheoJed production. They are intriguing pieces that we got, but Callis articulated clearly the concerns that I’ve had with the pieces,
All that said, this is a better system than most fans at Sickels would acknowledge. Now, I’m mildly surprised at 14th, but last year, BA gave us a higher ranking than expected pre-Garza trade as well (I’m surprised because some of the podcasts/comments they make suggest a lower ranking). Entering 2011, though, a lot of us were concerned at the severe lack of talent in Peoria and below. Entering 2012, Peoria looks like it could be a very prospect laden club, pitching and positional assets.
I’ve discussed this with some of the posters here over on Sickels, but the Cubs 50-80 prospects are fairly fascinating as a group. It wouldn’t entirely stun me if guys in my 50-80 rankings this year ended up being better than some of the top 10-15 guys. Speaks to the weakness at the top, but also to the fascinating raw upside in the lower levels.
Good point.
The lower levels have players that could elevate and surprise. I am intrigued by Marco Hernandez.
I'm probably as bullish a person as you'll find on Marco Hernandez
I’ve heard from several people that saw him play this year, and I like everything I hear about him, so I have him 4th in the system as of now (behind BJax/Rizzo/Baez). Doesn’t mean I think he’s a lock to succeed, and we’ll find out more about him this year if he hits Low A (I hope, but if they are intent on keeping Baez at short for now, Baez probably gets priority). Just means, on tools, current ability, potential, potential value, I’ve got him 4th.
Good to have you back, toonsterwu. Seems like it's been awhile.
Always appreciated your minor league insight.
And having someone around who often types posts as long as I often do.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
guess you missed my Cubs prospect fanpost on Sickels the other day
I’m fairly surprised anyone read through it to be honest.
ha thanks, just one take
been fiddling with my Cates placement, tempted to place him 15th on a gut call, but probably going to slide him back a bit.
Reading up on him more, I liked where you had him.
I might slot him more in my 15-20 range than my 25-30 range like I mentioned over at minorleagueball. Keith Law seems to think his change has plus potential and is already average, where some other reports I’ve read said it might one day be average.
Kind of a big difference, but if his change is already average, that’s a pretty important piece.
For those that didn't/can't see, here is Law's thoughts on Cates
He’s a raw but very intriguing conversion guy with limited experience on the mound, but can show two plus pitches in a fastball up to 96 MPH (sitting 92-93) and a plus changeup that is a 70 on its best nights. His delivery is a little rough in back but he gets great extension out front with good downhill plane to keep the ball in the park, especially against right-handed batters. He’s still in search of an average breaking ball, and his command and control are what you’d expect for a raw pitcher without a lot of innings behind him. He’s a great lottery ticket for the Cubs here with the upside of a mid-rotation starter if he finds a breaking ball and a plus reliever if he doesn’t.
I know
that I still, gut feeling, prefer Beeler over him (relative to starting potential, I think Cates has better pen potential than Beeler). I think Beeler gets a bit disrespected/under-hyped to an extent (although someone mentioned to me that Beeler was top 15 in BA’s list). Was rushed to AA and he struggled, but showed some positive signs in maintaining his control on his stuff. Quality/consistency of secondary pitches have to get a bit better (I bring up Beeler because that was the point on my list where I said, everyone above, I’m pretty sure I’d take over Cates).
I definitely like Beeler and think he's an underrated piece of the system.
I agree that he was rushed and look forward to what he can do in 2012 with a little consistency. I think, however, that I’d slot Cates right ahead of Beeler, but that might change day to day.
I'd prefer Beeler right now as well
Mostly because he doesn’t walk anybody and gets grounders.
He's 19 - get him some protein and maybe he grows 2 or 3 inches
Of course, Joe Morgan was a 5’7" 2B….
Please post here more often.
Yes, I know you post on MLB… MLB isn’t BCB.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Jan 12, 2012 2:59 PM CST up reply actions
This was up about two days ago
and I just assumed it had been posted as I have not had much time to hang around lately.
Thanks for posting it
The bottom is loaded with nice people, Albert. Only cream and bastards rise
A mention of it was posted noting it would be up soon...
I took a couple days off and saw it still wasnt a fanshot, so figured i’d link it.
Also of note to those who are interested
milb.tv will be showing the following:
- All of Iowa’s games
- 70 Smokies games
- 0 D-Cubs games (odd to me)
- 11 Chiefs games
- 38 Boise games
No idea what it will cost this year, but I believe it was very cheap last year. Like $30 for the whole year or something like that. If it stays the same, I will definately be subscribing.
Are there any blackout restrictions?
I’m in the Chicago area, but still subscribe to MLB.TV because I enjoy having access to every game. That said, I can never watch Cubs games because of the blackout restrictions. Are there any blackout restrictions on MiLB.TV?
by Naveen Nallappa on Jan 9, 2012 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
I don't believe so.
And if you are in the Chicago area, you can watch Cubs games on your TV. MLB.TV is still useful for other games.
That said, the blackouts are beyond stupid.
Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation's Baseball Nation
As a student, it can be difficult to get cable working in the dorms.
So MLB Gameday is my best friend. Not being able to watch Cubs games for the first two months of the season is tough, but it makes me appreciate the summer all the more.
by Naveen Nallappa on Jan 9, 2012 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
It all depends
on whether someone is televising the game locally. Apparently no one in Daytona Beach is going to televise D-Cubs games. I suspect that most of the Chiefs games are road games with other teams feeds, but I don’t know.
Most Triple-A teams televise on a local RSN or a digital sub-channel of a local station. I suspect the Smokies are getting the same treatment. Boise has always matched up the stadium camera with the radio broadcast. The broadcast isn’t good, but you can follow it.
With Jackson and Rizzo likely to start the season in Iowa, it looks like the I-Cubs will finally be worth watching.
It was only like
$10 or $15 extra with the MLB.TV pack if I remember rightly.
"Keep pushin' til' it's understood. And these badlands start treating us good."




















