2012 is the 18th season in the wild-card era; thus we've now had 36 league championship series in that era.
The Giants won Game 5 Friday night in St. Louis; that's the 13th time in those 36 LCS that a team trailing three games to one has done that. Here's what occurred in the other 12:
- Seven times, the team that lost Game 5 went on to win Game 6 and the series (1997 ALCS, 1998 NLCS, 1999 NLCS, 2000 ALCS, 2009 ALCS, 2010 ALCS, 2011 ALCS).
- Once, the team that lost Game 5 also lost Game 6, but won the series in Game 7 (2008 ALCS).
- Four times, the team trailing three games to one won the series (1996 NLCS, 2003 NLCS, 2004 ALCS, 2007 ALCS).
So, based on previous results, the Giants have about a one-in-three chance of winning this series; the Cardinals have a 58-percent chance of closing out the series tonight, and a two-in-three chance of winning it by tomorrow night.
Those odds are pretty meaningless, since what happens in previous LCS has nothing to do with what happens this year. The Giants seem to have momentum, for whatever that's worth, and two games at home; the Cardinals are 3-2 in playoff road games this year but were 38-43 in road games during the regular season.
If the Cardinals win tonight, it will be the first time in a non-strike season (or 1918, when the season was cut to 130 games due to World War I) that neither World Series team will have 90 or more wins.
|2012 - Chris Carpenter||0-2||3||3||0||0||0||0||17.0||16||7||7||2||3||12||3.71||1.12|
|2012 - Ryan Vogelsong||14-9||31||31||0||0||0||0||189.2||171||76||71||17||62||158||3.37||1.23|
This will be the only thread for today's games; if it gets too slow, post another one in the fanshot area. Discuss amongst yourselves.