"We're Not Rebuilding, We're Building"
Interesting how this article by Carrie Muskat on cubs.com says the team isn't rebuilding but they'e doing everything a rebuilding team does. "Let's get rid of all the players and start from scratch but not call it rebuilding"
3 months ago
Musicdude10
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One look at the projected batting order in this article makes me yearn for 2013.
Projected batting order
1. RF David DeJesus:
.240 BA, .323 OBP, .376 SLG, 10 HR, 46 RBI in 2011
2. 2B Darwin Barney:
.276 BA, .313 OBP, .353 SLG, 2 HR, 43 RBI in 2011
3. SS Starlin Castro:
.307 BA, .341 OBP, .432 SLG, 10 HR, 66 RBI in 2011
4. 1B Bryan LaHair:
.288 BA, .377 OBP, .508 SLG, 2 HR, 6 RBI in 2011
5. CF Marlon Byrd:
.276 BA, .324 OBP, .395 SLG, 9 HR, 35 RBI in 2011
6. LF Alfonso Soriano:
.244 BA, .289 OBP, .469 SLG, 26 HR, 88 RBI in 2011
7. 3B Ian Stewart:
.156 BA, .243 OBP, .221 SLG, 0 HR, 6 RBI in 2011
8. C Geovany Soto:
.228 BA, .310 OBP, .411 SLG, 17 HR, 54 RBI in 2011
I agree...
…only thing that line-up does is give the Astros hope.
by Easy Ed on Feb 13, 2012 3:10 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
you're telling me we're gonna hit 76 home runs next year
and score 344 runs?
So i you can give you can take it.
I usually try to look at the upcoming season with optimism,
but this lineup has about as much power as a Renault LeCar.
For comparison, the 2011 team put up almost twice those numbers:
148 HR, 654 runs. That was good for 20th, and 19th, respectively in MLB.
I would think it will be plenty (relatively) more than that.
Some of those players can’t help but improve and their run related numbers will go up simply with the accumulation ABs (for instance, even if you don’t believe much in LaHair, I’d say there’s a pretty fair chance he’ll hit more than two HRs and drive in more than six runs as the opening day clean-up hitter). That line-up also doesn’t include bench players or minor league call-ups.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
That's a safe assumption.
Pretty sure epsilon was being tounge-in-cheek. It would be interesting to see how last year’s starting lineup compares, but that was an ever-changing animal… and I just didn’t have time to figure it out. If you wanted it to be really scientific (lawl) you could use the opening day lineup and their season stats, as I’m sure this one is bound to change as well.
well...
lahair’s projection includes about 20 games… so yeah assuming we dont play with a 1B for 142 games (or 3B for 120), yes.
those are 2011 recorded stats, not projections going forward
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 14, 2012 9:04 AM CST up reply actions
Have there been teams
in the modern era that hit under 100 home runs on the season? That seems pretty possible for this team.
And the same franchise kept hitting less than 100 HRs
Well
that’s in my lifetime, so yes. Wow—67? That’s crazy.
But check out how fast that team was! Who needs home runs when everyone steals 20 bases.
Definitely a pre-PED team
Was back when the Busch had turf that produced bounces like a Superball. Guys on those Cards team would hit an infield chopper and be past 1B before it came down to the infielder.
I'm willing to bet it's VERY different than that.
Supporter of Carlos Austin Boozer, and I don't want to see Dwight Howard in a Bulls uniform. Call me crazy.
by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 13, 2012 5:06 PM CST up reply actions
Using those numbers from last season is pretty useless
It completely discounts playing time, injuries, and minor league performance (i.e. LaHair, 38 HRs)
Bill James has hitter and pitcher projections and fangraphs has them. From his published numbers and not adding in much for a bench, I came up with 129 HRs, 613 Runs, and 587 RBIs.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Feb 13, 2012 6:10 PM CST up reply actions
So if we can prevent 40 less Runs on Defense and Pitching
We should be at about 71 wins again? I think we can prevent a lot less runs with the starting pitching depth and upgrading the defense at right and 3rd.
I cobbled together 666 earned runs for 2012
Based on Bill James projections.
In 2011, the Cubs had 690 earned runs and with bad defense, gave up 756 runs. That a 9.57% increase over earned runs. If the Cubs played league average defense – increase of 9..44% – they would give up 729 runs.
Offensively, I’m about 300 ABs short. So that would probably be another ~30 runs scored by the Cubs.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Feb 13, 2012 9:44 PM CST up reply actions
while i am not expecting miracles, i actually have a good feeling Stewart can bounce back and have himself a good year.
now he’s not going to be an all star, but i dont think .250 with 20+ HR is out of the question. but we’ll see.
I still feel relatively positive about...
….a Stewart/Baker platoon at third base.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I agree that is was likely tongue in cheek.
Just adding some info for other posters.
I did take your idea, just for kicks. Here’s the 2011 Cub Opening Day starting line-up, with season results (BA, OBP, SLG, HR, RBI):
Fukudome RF .273 / .374 / .369 3, 13
Castro SS .307 / .341 / .432 10, 66
Byrd CF .276 / .324 / 395 9, 35
Ramirez 3B .306 / .361 / .510 26, 93
Pena 1B .225 / .357 / .462 28, 80
Soto C .228 / .310 / .411 17, 54
Barney 2B .276 / .313 / .353 2, 43
So that totals to 95 HR & 384 RBI (if my math is correct).
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Yeah... woops. But Mitchener has it covered.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Line up based on Bill james projections
Dejesus 8 hr 46 rbi
Barney 2 hr 25 rbi
Castro 8hr 66 rbi
Lahair 13hr 44rbi
Byrd 13hr 66rbi
Soriano 22hr 63 rbi
Stewart 10hr 35 rbi
Soto 19hr 67 rbi
Total for opening day line up is 95 hr and 412 rbi
Although the projection doesn't have Lahair Full time
so maybe add 10 hr and 30ish rbi’s for Rizzo
I wonder what the basis would be
for thinking that Castro will hit two fewer HRs and knock in exactly the same # of runs??
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Expects him to hit 3rd more? James has some iffy playing time for these players.
He doesn’t expect Stewart or Barney playing more than 90 games. Rotocamp might have more accurate numbers. I don’t have time to put those together though.
If he hits 3rd
most of the season (which seems to be the projection at this point) and only drives in 66 runs… then this team is REALLY going to have issues scoring runs.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Rotochamp projections are are a little better
Dejesus 10 HR 52 RBI
Barney 2 HR 54 RBI
Castro 9 HR 74 RBI
Lahair 12 HR 60 RBI
Byrd 10 hr 64 RBI
Soriano 23 HR 69 RBI
Stewart 16 hr 56 RBI
Soto 18hr 57 RBI
Total 100 HR 486 RBI
Those numbers arent bad at all
….oh wait they play 162 games not 100
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
Killing time until baseball starts but...
If you add 60 RBI’s to Stewart and LaHair each along with 10 home runs each you have 96 HR and 464 RBI not taking the bench into account. Why am I doing this?
by Uncle Fungus on Feb 13, 2012 6:30 PM CST up reply actions
Never mind
Pitchers and catchers February 15. Yes!
by Uncle Fungus on Feb 13, 2012 6:31 PM CST up reply actions
PREPARE: 2012 IS GONNA BE A BAD SEASON
But it’s gonna be a real good season in preparation for 2013
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Follow the minor leagues in 2012
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Prediction
… it won’t be worse than 2011.
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We were 20 games under .500.
That’s really, really bad. So no, we might not be record-wise worse, but look at our GD starting lineup. That’s atrocious.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
You really think Bryan LaHair will hit two home runs and drive in six runs all year?
The 2012 Cubs will win more than 71 games.
Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation's Baseball Nation
More than 60% of people voting in the sidebar poll
… think the Cubs will win at least 75 games.
Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation's Baseball Nation
All that proves is 60% of the people here are likely some degree of crazy.
No offense to the crazies!
by bdlugz on Feb 14, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
LOL!!!!!!!
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Feb 14, 2012 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
You will fit in great with our family.
The best husband in the world was on the Championship team at the 2012 Randy Hundley Cubs Fantasy camp!
I see the Median being 75 games
The team probably has upside to be 80 game winner ,but if some of the young players take a step backwards or then it could be a 70 win team.
Where does the better come from?
How is this team better than last? Last year we had Zambrano and Aramis. They were good.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
You're right, he was replacement level, I was wrong. My bad.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Major improvement in defense....
Much better pitching (health) and depth
Better defense, baserunning, and pitching.
Improvements from Castro, bounce back year from Soto. Ramirez was our only significant loss, and maybe Pena depending on how good Rizzo/LaHair do
That may be a HIGH estimate. I hear he's 43 years old now.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
That's just, your opinion, man.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
This article really irritated me yesterday...
…for a couple of reasons:
1. The headline indicating the 2012 Cubs are a “win now” team is bad joke, no matter what Dale Sveum says, and
2. Randy Wells isn’t mentioned anywhere in the article. Not once. Now Carrie Muskat, or anyone else, is free to predict or suggest that Wells won’t be in the starting rotation. But not to give a guy who’s been in the starting rotation for the last three seasons even a cursory mention is a simply ridiculous and insulting oversight. I @ replied to Muskat about it on Twitter and, as usual, received no response.
(Rips printed version of articles to shreds, throws pieces up in the air, steps down off soapbox.)
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
why is Wells on the sh*t-list?
he was injured last year and some thought he had been brought back too soon. He wasn’t the only one who sucked last year. I don’t understand what’s going on here.
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Feb 14, 2012 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
I don't get it either.
Does Carrie know something we don’t? Is Wells about to be traded? Because to not even drop his name into the article in some way is just awful. Bruce Levine did a similar piece – and he actually leaves Wells out of the rotation, too. But at least he throws Randy a bone by mentioning him as another starter candidate.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
does Carrie know something?
even if she does, why not stick up for the guy? IMHO….every single member of the Cubs team this year has a pass! It had to be god-awful to play under the Hendry regime with no hope for the future. No motivation. I’m taking the liberty and speaking for Cubs fans everywhere that it was hard as hell to get motivated to just root for this club. Working with a new mindset DOES make a difference in performance.
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Feb 14, 2012 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
Generally
We know things before Carrie does
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Follow me on the twitter: @DJFreddie10 . I like to talk sports
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