4 Cubs on BA's Top 100
Jackson, Rizzo, Baez and Szczur. Baez gets comped to Gary Sheffield and Jackson gets comped to the Foo Fighters.
3 months ago
Josh Timmers
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Insightful. I could go without the Foo Fighters reference though
Could Baez eventually move to the OF though? Seems to be suggesting that
I never blame myself when I'm not hitting. I just blame the bat and if it keeps up, I change bats. After all, if I know it isn't my fault that I'm not hitting, how can I get mad at myself?
- Yogi Berra
by LongLiveHarryCaray on Feb 21, 2012 11:52 AM CST reply actions
Well if you take the Sheffield comp a bit further....
Sheffield career progression was SS to 3B to OF to DH.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
Yes, he could
Let’s hope he sticks at 3B though. He’ll play SS for a while though, although I really doubt he sticks there.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 21, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions
A chance?
Yes, although it would waste his good arm. But obviously it’s better to have a big bat at second base than third.
This is just off the top of my head, but assuming Baez makes the majors, I’d guesstimate his position will be:
5%—SS (this might be generous)
25%—2B
50%—3B
10%—RF
5%—-LF
5%—1B.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 22, 2012 3:47 AM CST up reply actions
Curious on this... though perhaps just a wording issue.
But obviously it’s better to have a big bat at second base than third
I always felt that 3B was the more “offensive” position and most any offense out of 2B was a bonus. So are you stating that under the premise that you would also have a good bat at 3B… and therefore having a better than ‘normal’ bat at 2B is an overall gain for the offense?
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
All I meant
was that it’s easier to find a third baseman who can hit than a second baseman who can hit. Therefore, Baez would have more value at second than third (assuming he can hit).
by Josh Timmers on Feb 22, 2012 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
Gotcha.
For some reason, it just didn’t read right to me the first time.
Of course, I also have the Cubs pre A-Ram carousel of clunkers at 3B in the back of my head, so I don’t take offense at third for granted, either.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Eh, I'm not proud of how I wrote that.
So don’t worry.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 22, 2012 4:37 PM CST up reply actions
For those just too darn busy to scroll, but not too busy to visit BCB...
32 Brett Jackson of, Cubs Age: 23. ETA: 2012.
Steadily moving up the charts (38th on last year’s Top 100) like a Foo Fighters song.
47 Anthony Rizzo 1b, Cubs Age: 22. ETA: 2012.
No prospect made as good a ballpark move as Rizzo’s in going from Petco to Wrigley.
61 Javier Baez ss, Cubs Age: 19. ETA: 2014.
Bat speed, Florida high school shortstop background . . . let the Gary Sheffield comparisons begin.
64 Matt Szczur of, Cubs Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
Exciting high-risk, high-reward talent who should take off with football in his rearview mirror.
So (obviously) that’s four prospects in the top 64… which is the highest / most optimistic I’ve seen from any list so far.
And for those who still like to track the Garza trade… HJ Lee was at 44 with Archer at 89 (with ETA of 2013 for both). That’s about the lowest I can remember seeing Lee (someone feel free to correct that if wrong) while Archer has been in and out of the back end of a few top 100 lists.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Baseball America
has always like the Cubs system more than other lists (Law, Goldstein, Mayo).
by Josh Timmers on Feb 21, 2012 2:36 PM CST up reply actions
I trust BAs stuff the most, they have 8 guys that rate the top 150 prospects. I belive these guys see players
a lot more than Law, Goldstein, Sickels. Law admitted in his last chat that he typically only sees 70% of the players on his top 100 list and who knows how many times he is actually seeing the 70 he does see. Ditto for Goldstein, Sickels, et al.
Prospects are so hit or miss, I trust a BA type of consensus prospect list way more than I trust any one individual.
2014 for Baez
I thought he was a long ways off.
3 years for an elite HS bat is optimistic, but plausable.
I assume 2014 may be a late call up, with 2015 as his first full year, assuming he progresses well.
it's plausible
when you factor in that the new leadership can get aggressive at times (Casey Kelly was up in AA far quicker than I anticipated, a guy similar to Baez (Xander Boegaerts) was in Low A last year).
Put it this way – I think Baez sees Low A in 2012. Maybe a touch of high A if things go well. Again, assuming things go well, 2013 becomes some sort of A+/AA start, with a chance of AAA perhaps, which puts him potentially in line for a 2014 call-up at some point.
Pitching
It would be nice to have at least 1 pitcher in that group.
Actually
… since the Cubs have not done well at developing position players since… forever, it’s nice to see four position players in that list.
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Good point, Al. I'm drawing a blank on that, too. Who was the last really solid position player we developed besides?
I guess Soto or Theriot, but I wouldn’t put them on the same level as the four above are projected to be.
"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." -Rogers Hornsby
CASTRO
"I'll play any day. I don't care if I'm 0-for-30, playing baseball is my PASSION. I'll go out and play." - Geo Soto
Oh, yeah. That guy.
"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." -Rogers Hornsby
Yeah, that's about where I'm at.
There are so many Kevin Orie’s and Brooks Kieschnick’s crowding my memory that it’s hard to keep up.
"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." -Rogers Hornsby
Soto and Castro
Soto has been a top-third catcher for us, despite only showing up during even-numbered years.
Starlin Castro is very, very good.
I do think it would be nicer to see pitchers on this list than hitters, but I am happy to see any bodies at all on this list. However, it was on the arms of Wood, Zambrano, Prior and (Dontrelle Willis for) Clement that the Cubs enjoyed some of the most promising success that I ever saw. Too bad our instructors at the lower levels coudn’t straighten these guys out early.
-- Jerome Horwitz
by KO Stradivarius on Feb 21, 2012 1:38 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'll agree
on Castro as really solid………………Soto is a “meh”. Sooo……………It goes Grace, Castro(albeit 20+ years later) I’m thinking we need to do a little better starting now
Soto's numbers for a catcher are servicable, even in his "off" years.
Can’t really complain about 15-20 homers and an OBP in the low-mid 300’s.
Supporter of Carlos Austin Boozer, and I don't want to see Dwight Howard in a Bulls uniform. Call me crazy.
by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 21, 2012 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
2008 and 2010 were awesome.
2009 and 2011 were just bad. His OPS was 80 in 2009, 96 in 2011.
In 2011, Geo was worse than a lot of catchers who were deemed to have almost played themselves out of jobs. Jared Saltalamacchia was better, and I think he was hitting under .100 for 2 months. The difference between Soto and Yorvit Torrealba, for instance, was pretty thin. Same with Jonathan LuCroy for Milwaukee… and I don’t think anyone looks at Lucroy and goes “hey, that’s acceptable”. Boston got essentially the same performance out of Jason Varitek when he played, and I think he’s 50 years old.
Catchers who were definitely better than Soto in 2011: Avila, McCann, Wieters, Santana, M. Montero, Y. Molina, R. Martin, Salty, Napoli (to the extent he’s still a catcher, obviously), Ianetta, Ramon Hernandez, half a season of Nick Hundley, Ryan Doumit Until He Got Hurt, Ruiz. It’s probably safe to say Mauer would be better in most seasons, but he missed so much time. Same with Buster Posey.
So, given the half-timers and caveats on that list, say that makes 12 catchers. I guess that puts Soto’s 2011 somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of MLB offensive catchers. So, yeah, “serviceable”, in most respects. Which, given his lack of outstanding defense, is a pretty iffy place to be. He needs to step it up offensively.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 21, 2012 3:58 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
As you said, my point is that even during an off year, he's "serviceable".
He is probably one of the last people the Cubs need to replace on this roster, behind just shortstop, and maybe first and center, depending on how Jackson and Rizzo look this year.
Supporter of Carlos Austin Boozer, and I don't want to see Dwight Howard in a Bulls uniform. Call me crazy.
by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 21, 2012 5:10 PM CST up reply actions
We've seen where "serviceable" gets us. 5th place.
They’ve got to shoot for “above average”, especially if they are getting lackluster defense from a crucial defensive position.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
This June
First Round: Starting Pitching
Second Round: Starting Pitching
Third Round: Starting Pitching
Let’s get this “best available” stuff out of our heads this year – this system is WAY too thin. Polished college pitchers preferred.
-- Jerome Horwitz
by KO Stradivarius on Feb 21, 2012 1:42 PM CST reply actions
As much as I want college starting pitching, you don't draft for need in baseball.
Too unpredictable, and you can certainly find top pitching prospects past the first couple rounds. If the best player availible is clearly a HS bat, go for it. You can always trade prospects for a SP. Garza is probably either getting extended or traded for a top pitching prospect, and we have a very good chance to add SP next year in free agency. Also, we have two compensation round picks, so it’s extremely likely we’ll get at least one college SP before the end of the second round.
That's standard practice, yes
But the chance of being able to trade for an Ace prospect is pretty remote. People don’t let go of guys like that.
I have to argue against the “best player available” argument in this case. We actually have rather a lot of bats in our system right now, and not just the four above. We have other guys set to explode, such as Vogelbach, DeVoss and Torreyes, just to name a few. Meanwhile, our minor league pitching hasn’t looked this thin in 20 years.
Furthermore, year after year, look at what happens with the top 30 picks. It’s a crap shoot which of these guys is going to pan out, no matter how good you think your scouts are. Might as well tilt the House in your favor, and lean toward a college pitcher in the first round. If I got the #6 pick, and I have a choice between a couple of high school bats and a college pitcher who shows up 8th or 9th on my overall list, I just have to grab that pitcher.
Maybe that catcher in the first round, though… whatshisname. We are certainly thin at catching at the lower levels.
-- Jerome Horwitz
by KO Stradivarius on Feb 21, 2012 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
Agree to disagree.
But if there is no clear cut best available player, I would definitely hope they would lean towards the college SP. No matter what, they should get a hell of a prospect at number six overall.
I'm doing it for emphasis
but once again, I want to note that the low levels of the system have a fair amount of high upside pitching potential.
Exactly
This is the most excited I’ve ever been about an upcoming minor league season, simply due to the amount of prospects that are breakout candidates.
OK. Let's say, for argument's sake, this is what happens.
I’ll use ‘projected WAR’ as an ‘in vogue’ term (which it isn’t). We draft 6th. A possible Top 6 are as follows (with hypothetical Projected WAR)
Appel RHP PW 65
Zunino C PW 62
Giolito HSRHSP PW 58
Buxton HSOF PW 52
Gausman RHP PW 50
Marrero SS PW 47
Correa HSSS PW 45
Dahl HSOF PW 44
Beck RHP PW 40
If, come June, those are our draft board. Everything goes to form. Do you take Beck over Marrero, Correa, and Dahl? For the record, I like Beck as a pick, though 6 might be a bit high. I’m hoping the Cubs draft the best remaining player, at least for their first 4 picks. Maybe an ‘easy sign’ type in Round 3 or 4, but early on, get the best there is.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
no
You take the best available player and work from there. Now, I think 1 of the spots should be set for pitching, and perhaps 2, but no way should you take best available out of the equation.
It should be noted that the low levels of the system has a fair amount of high upside arms to go with some high upside bats. It’s quite possible internal development fills some gaps.
Good list.
Where would Soler be on this list?
I am a Foo Fighters fan, so I like the reference. Really am curious for Szczur and Baez this year.
by Grockcubs on Feb 21, 2012 2:15 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I'd guess he'd make the bottom third of the list.
Am I close, minor league experts?
And is it me or has the whole Soler story gone awfully quiet all of the sudden?
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
most experts i've seen
have soler as consensus top 3 for the cubs, and in many cases (i.e. goldstein) they have him as our #1 prospect over bjax & rizzo even. So i’d say he’s probably a top-50 type
"I'll play any day. I don't care if I'm 0-for-30, playing baseball is my PASSION. I'll go out and play." - Geo Soto
Even better (assuming/hoping we get him)!
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
In his chat
Jim Callis said he’d rank him #43, although he added that he can’t speak for the rest of the BA people.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 21, 2012 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
I've seen anywhere from top 20 overall to 70th overall on Soler.
Personally, I don’t think any of the prospect gurus have seen him enough to get a proper handle.
I think you're right.
No one really is familiar enough with him to accurately rank him.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 22, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, they can rank him.
Accuracy, not so much. But they can rank him.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Hopefully a year from now Rizzo and Jackson will have graduated from this list.
And Baez and Szczur can be joined by Vogelbach, Maples, Golden, Soler, Concepion, and our 2012 first rounder. And while we’re at it, trade Soriano for Bryce Harper, Dempster for Mike Trout, and Marmol for Matt Moore.
Git. Er. Dunn.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
doh!
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Feb 21, 2012 7:31 PM CST up reply actions
Jorge Soler
I want this guy in our system soooo badly, and i think we have a great great shot. But has anyone heard when this kid will even get Dominican residency? On top of that, when will he be a MLB free agent?
Just seems like it is dragging big time – its like torturous to me now. I have no idea how many times i’ve googled “Jorge Soler” haha
"I'll play any day. I don't care if I'm 0-for-30, playing baseball is my PASSION. I'll go out and play." - Geo Soto
How can you not google him?
Just look at that winning smile:
"I'll play any day. I don't care if I'm 0-for-30, playing baseball is my PASSION. I'll go out and play." - Geo Soto
Hey, Andrew. Look at the big gray goose over there
Where did my Matt Moore go? And why is Marmol wearing a Rays jersey. This is not my house. This is not my wife.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Szczur seems high on this list
No other scout lists him in the top 100. 64? He needs to learn patience.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
Baseball America loves Szczur
They always have.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 21, 2012 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
And I believe Goldstein goes the other way and is pretty down on him.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
it's not hard to be down on him
The declining walk rates in Low A (check the month to month decline) plus the fact that baseball people finally realized what football people realized about Szczur (he’s a good athelte, not a great athlete). Balance that with legitimate questions on how much of his Batting practice power translates to in-game power due to his approach (he can drive the ball in BP).
The flip side is that, by most accounts, his baseball skills took big developments this year, and he is still raw as a full-time baseball player (albeit, this positive is tempered slightly by his age). He can legitimately play CF and likely be plus in CF from a defensive standpoint, has good speed, and people look at BP and feel like the power should come eventually.
I hope he starts in A+, though. Give Ha CF in AA to start, let Szczur develop in Daytona a bit more (I’m also curious how Ha’s defense in CF would look to AA folks next year, A+ reviews were generally positive, but some of the folks that saw him in AA seemed to think he was over-rated as a CF and more of the Guyer (defensively) projection that was anticipated).
Re: Ha's defense
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a contrast in scouting reports in my life. I’ve read reports that rate Ha as a plus defensive CFer and the best defensive OF in the system. Then you go to another evaluator and they put the “tweener” tag on him, saying he won’t be able to handle CF, and not sure his bat will play well at a COF position.
Talking to folks
And there seems to be a clear separation. While there are positive and negative defensive reports of his time in A+ or AA, it does feel like most of the positive reports on his defense were from his time in Daytona. The first thing that comes to mind is that he wore down after a full season, and thus, was a bit weaker in AA when playing CF. Of course, some of the critiques had less to do with his overall athletic ability than his reads. Granted, poor reads and angles can come from fatigue as well, and there were similar complaints about Brett Jackson when he hit AA 2 years ago (and Brett answered many of the defensive questions about his ability to stay in CF through his cost-controlled years last year … of course, nothing is absolute in prospects).
Thus, I would like to see Ha start in CF in AA, with Szczur in A+. There’s no need to rush Szczur to AA next year unless he’s lights out improved offensively in the spring. If Ha shows a modicum of improvement offensively and is lights out defensively, he gives the organization great value, as an asset to call up or a trade chip. If the defense turns out to be over-hyped from A+, then he makes the move to a corner role … which was what was originally anticipated for him anyways.
Nice that our defensive CFs
have a more current competitor to represent against than, y’know, Bobby Dernier or Dave Martinez.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
In other prospect-related news...
…Jonathan Mayo has replaced Chris Carpenter on his Top 20 Cubs list with RHP Zach Cates, who he slots in at No. 20. You can navigate your way to his Cubs list here. If you go to Cates’ profile, look for the misprint.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
ZOMG - A 32-YEAR-OLD PROSPECT11!!!
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Looks like Mayo found
this guy instead of the actual Cubs prospect.
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What's the problem?
He was only off by 10 years, two months and 27 days.
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