What Can The Cubs Expect From Ian Stewart?

by Al Yellon on Feb 24, 2012 11:20 AM CST in Chicago Cubs Essays

Ian Stewart of the Colorado Rockies looks on from the dugout during a game against the New York Mets at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

The Cubs sent Tyler Colvin to the Rockies over the winter in exchange for Ian Stewart in what can be termed a low-level "challenge trade" -- two players who seriously underachieved in their previous locations, hoping for improvement and a fresh start with new teams.

Stewart was particularly bad for the Rockies last season, hitting zero home runs in 136 plate appearances while batting just .156/.243/.221 (those numbers even make Adam Dunn look good). Part of that, Stewart attributes to a wrist injury he suffered in spring training last year which now is fully healed. When sent to Triple-A Colorado Springs, Stewart hit .275/.359/.591 with 14 HR in 45 games, a similar pace to his previous Triple-A season in 2008, before he became a Rockies regular the following season.

Stewart hit 25 HR and drove in 70 runs as the more-or-less regular 3B for the 2009 Rockies. But his other numbers weren't outstanding; his triple-slash line of .228/.322/.464 produced an OPS+ of just 95, below average.

Stewart, though, was Top 100 Prospect in Baseball America five years in a row (2004-2008). He will turn 27 on Opening Day; maybe the change of scenery can help him fulfill that promise.

What might we expect? I put the following info into baseball-reference's Play Index: find a 3B who, at age 24 (the age Stewart was in the 2009 season), hit at least 25 HR, drove in at least 70 runs, had an OPS of at least .785, and -- just to balance that -- struck out at least 138 times. Results after the jump.

Here are the third basemen who fit the criteria I mentioned above.

Rk	Player	Year	HR	RBI	OPS	SO	G	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	BB	IBB	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	Pos
1	Ian Stewart	2009	25	70	.785	138	147	24	COL	NL	491	425	74	97	19	3	56	3	5	0	5	7	7	4	.228	.322	.464	*54/79
2	Evan Longoria	2009	33	113	.889	140	157	23	TBR	AL	671	584	100	164	44	0	72	11	8	0	7	27	9	0	.281	.364	.526	*5/D
3	Hank Blalock	2004	32	110	.855	149	159	23	TEX	AL	713	624	107	172	38	3	75	7	6	0	8	13	2	2	.276	.355	.500	*5
4	Troy Glaus	2001	41	108	.898	158	161	24	ANA	AL	708	588	100	147	38	2	107	7	6	0	7	16	10	3	.250	.367	.531	*5/6D
5	Troy Glaus	2000	47	102	1.008	163	159	23	ANA	AL	678	563	120	160	37	1	112	6	2	0	1	14	14	11	.284	.404	.604	*5/6D
6	Scott Rolen	1998	31	110	.923	141	160	23	PHI	NL	711	601	120	174	45	4	93	6	11	0	6	10	14	7	.290	.391	.532	*5
7	Dean Palmer	1993	33	96	.824	154	148	24	TEX	AL	585	519	88	127	31	2	53	4	8	0	5	5	11	10	.245	.321	.503	*5/6
8	Matt Williams	1990	33	122	.807	138	159	24	SFG	NL	664	617	87	171	27	2	33	9	7	2	5	13	7	4	.277	.319	.488	*5
9	Mike Schmidt	1974	36	116	.941	138	162	24	PHI	NL	686	568	108	160	28	7	106	14	4	3	5	4	23	12	.282	.395	.546	*5
10	Dick Allen	1964	29	91	.939	138	162	22	PHI	NL	708	632	125	201	38	13	67	13	0	6	3	8	3	4	.318	.382	.557	*5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/24/2012.

Well.

That is quite a list of players, anywhere from "solid regular" to "Hall of Fame caliber". Note that I am not in any way suggesting that Stewart could be as good as Mike Schmidt, or even Matt Williams, who had a 17-year career in which he hit 378 home runs.

The best comp on that list is probably Dean Palmer, who had a season much like Stewart's age 24 season when Palmer was 23 (.229/.311/.420, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 154 strikeouts). That age-23 season didn't make the table above because his OPS that year was .731, below the .785 mininum I specified.

Palmer had four 100-RBI seasons, four 30+ HR seasons and had a career triple-slash of .251/.324/.472 with 275 home runs. Palmer, too, had a season ruined by injury when he was about the age Stewart was a year ago, and then came back and had five straight really good years, though oddly, he made the AL All-Star team just once in that span (I confess, I haven't looked to see who the other good 3B in the American League were at the time).

Stewart is apparently going to get the bulk of playing time, including against LHP; he has a .759 career OPS vs. RHP, .726 vs. LHP, so there's not a huge platoon differential. Still, since the Cubs have a backup who rakes vs. LHP (Jeff Baker), it would be useful to rest Stewart from time to time.

I was skeptical of this deal at the time it was made, though it was clear the Cubs' new bosses had little use for Tyler Colvin. Palmer was a righthanded hitter and Stewart hits lefty, but If Stewart becomes anything close to what Dean Palmer was, the Cubs will have solved their third-base problem for the next few seasons.

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Comments

Love this article, and I love Theo's acquisition here.

Even if it doesn’t work out, the process was sound.

by D98 on Feb 24, 2012 11:25 AM CST reply actions

I had my doubts on him, but this is the type of trade that can really make a team.

Colvin wasn’t in the plan and rightfully so. Good luck Tyler, maybe you do, maybe you don’t.

But for the Cubs to get a sound gamble at 3rd when we really had no in house candidates, well, that’s a good gamble.
If he produces at projection, that will be something. We may replace our production with a better glove and just as good bat. Stewart is one of the best “to watch” stories on the Cubs this year, and there will be a lot of them. Ian, we’ll be watching.

We'll miss you Big Boy. #10 is going into the Hall of Fame!!

by mrcubsfan on Feb 24, 2012 11:32 AM CST reply actions

Rockies fans will be watching, too

We’re not terribly excited about Colvin given that our starting 3 are set and Charlie Blackmon seems to have the inside track to the 4th OF slot. Colvin could have a shot if they decide to carry 5 OF.

Stew is maddening at times. He’ll have these streaks where everything is over the fence, and some where he might as well begin his AB with an 0-2 count and he’ll just watch the pitcher throw a lazy slider over the black for the backwards K.

Hope for Stewart to improve his contact skills and to learn to protect the outside of the plate on a 2 strike count. If those contact skills can improve at all, you’ll start to see his tripleslash improve with them.

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by Andrew Martin on Feb 24, 2012 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Thanks, Al. I believe this article just made the sun come out briefly in Indiana.

I’ll take any of those projections in a heartbeat.

"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." -Rogers Hornsby

by Mapanator on Feb 24, 2012 12:00 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

Interesting... nice job Al.

Any chance you’d run the numbers on Colvin, just for reference? I’m intrigued by what some of the comps might be on his end… after an entirely forgettable season.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Feb 24, 2012 12:05 PM CST reply actions

OK, I ran similar numbers on Colvin.

Some of the names that came up included Manny Ramirez, Justin Upton, Nick Markakis, Tim Salmon, Danny Tartabull, Jeff Burroughs, Reggie Jackson, Darryl Strawberry, Tony Conigliaro and Johnny Callison.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 24, 2012 12:19 PM CST up reply actions

Pretty Impressive

list

by ryanbaker08 on Feb 24, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions

He has talent. It just wasn't going to gel in Chicago.

by ClarkFan on Feb 24, 2012 1:14 PM CST up reply actions

So we just traded Reggie Jackson for Mike Schmidt?

I’m okay with that, hope they both achieve those projections!

by bdlugz on Feb 24, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs

Great read

Being excited about the trade and wanting to learn more about Stewart, I thought I had exhausted the readings and statistical analysis on this guy weeks ago. But the comparison to the other 3B who fit Stewart’s 2009 criteria was interesting. I’m cautiously optimistic about Stewart having a rebound year with the change of scenery. If he doesn’t, and Vitters doesn’t take a step forward this year, the 2013 Free Agent options at 3B are pretty nice:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177

by marcobar on Feb 24, 2012 12:22 PM CST reply actions

Mr. Wright

Come on down.

by ryanbaker08 on Feb 24, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions

Don't like his semi-ongoing back problems

I’d rather see the Cubs swing a deal for someone like Headley, use the $ saved to put Soriano out to pasture, then pursue a solid bat in LF (maybe an Arb2 or Arb3 guy from a low budget team).

by ClarkFan on Feb 24, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions

No.\

by Dcr18 on Feb 24, 2012 2:29 PM CST up reply actions

Fairly debatable on the 3B quality.

The only interesting names on that list are Wright, Youkilis, and Kouzmanoff.

Youk would be 35 in the ’14 season.

Wright has had the back issues on and off (and would be 31 in ’14).

So that leaves Kouzmanoff who would be 32 that off-season (turning 33 during the ’14 season).

So that group looks a little on the older side to me. Not that they couldn’t still be helpful, but they wouldn’t seem to fit the “Theo mold” (maybe Wright, if his back clears up and you could get him on like a three year deal, which seems unlikely).

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Feb 24, 2012 2:59 PM CST up reply actions

every fa class

is going to be on the older side… that’s kind of the catch with FAs

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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 24, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions

First...

I need to roll back my numbers in my previous post. I thought the list was for FAs after the ‘13 season. The list has guys whose deals run out after this year. So you’d get Youk at 34, KK at 32, and Wright at 30.

On your post, I certainly agree. If a guy breaks in at 23, he’s not hitting FA until 29 or 30. If he starts older then you keep moving the number.

But Theo has stressed signing guys for future performance, not past performance. If healthy, Wright probably falls into still having 3-4 prime or prime-ish years left. You wouldn’t get any prime years from Youker and Kouzmanoff is maybe 1-2.

But then you can contrast that with some of the SPs set to hit FA next year. Hamels just turned 28 (so 29 in ‘13, the first year of his FA contract). Cain turns 28 right after this season. Floyd will be 30 before next season. Greinke turns 29 right after this season. Liriano (a lower tier, but still…) turns 29 after this season. Anibal Sanchez turns 29 during ST next year. Then there’s Haren, Shields, and Marcum who all would be 31.

So that’s part of the reason to be more excited about the available SP. There’s a half dozen guys who you would get at or below the age of 30 for at least one year (two for a couple)… putting you in position to get essentially their full prime.

"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."

by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST

by fsuapollo on Feb 24, 2012 4:16 PM CST up reply actions

I think it's fair to point out that...

numbers 3 thru 6 on that list were playing during the steroid era. This 1) makes Stewart’s ‘09 that much more impressive, and/or 2) makes it less likely that those numbers are going to be repeated. I honestly don’t know what to expect from him, but 0 homers last year doesn’t give me a whole lot of hope.

by JG23 on Feb 24, 2012 12:25 PM CST reply actions

0 HR in the major leagues...

… I think can be written off to the wrist injury.

He did essentially have the same season at Triple-A once sent down, that he did in 2008, implying he could get back to that level, at least.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 24, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

very good breakdown

at the very least I want to see how this trade plays out. I’m going to miss A-Ram either way, he was a staple in the middle of that line up for so many years but this is a totally different team and it was time for him to move on.

Steward could be a good, solid player and maybe a little better. I just am worried we gave up on Colvin too soon.

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by T.P. Grant on Feb 24, 2012 12:30 PM CST reply actions

AL all-star 3B

Taking Palmer’s peak years as 1996-2000, when he appeared in at least 143 games each year, putting up OPS+ over 100 four times and 11.8 WAR, the all-star 3B were Wade Boggs (in 1996, his last appearance), then Cal Ripken Jr, after he switched from shortstop. Apart from Palmer, backups included Travis Fryman (twice), Jeff Cirillo, Scott Brosius, Tony Fernandez, Tony Batista and Troy Glaus.

Palmer was actually better than Ripken, by WAR, every year from 97 to 2000; but his name wasn’t “Cal Ripken Jr”, which may have affected his chances in the ballot.

by Limey Cub Fan Jay on Feb 24, 2012 12:44 PM CST via mobile reply actions

I think he will have a solid season this year

Not quite above average, but solid.

He will definitely enjoy hitting in Wrigley Field this summer, and the switch to the hitter friendly parks of the NL Central.

Not having to face Kershaw, Cain, Lincecum, Kennedy and Hudson 4 times each a year should help as well.

by backtocali on Feb 24, 2012 12:54 PM CST reply actions

Definitely cautiously optimistic about Stewart

I think the Rockies went in the wrong direction by trading Stewart and Ianetta this off-season and will live to regret it.

by subtle on Feb 24, 2012 12:55 PM CST reply actions

The trade was essentially a free shot

Colvin had really run out of road in Chicago and the team was able to replace him as “youngish 4th OF” by picking up Sappelt. Barring some miracle, he was headed for Des Moines. The team wasn’t going to do a multi-year deal with Ramirez, so 3B was a gaping hole. Stewart can at least field the position and may be an effective bat.

So the team gave up a guy who was/became redundant in the organization for a guy who may be able to fill a hole. It may not be a stunning win, but at least the deal is logical.

by ClarkFan on Feb 24, 2012 1:12 PM CST reply actions

I can predict without hesitation

…that Ian Steward might hit 25 home runs agains next year.

I can also declare with 100% certainty that I have no idea what this guy is going to do this year.

I love a good mystery. Good year for it.

-- Jerome Horwitz

by KO Stradivarius on Feb 24, 2012 1:26 PM CST reply actions

Dick Allen - that is a name I hadn't seen in a long time

Not a very good 3B, but, boy, could he hit.

by ClarkFan on Feb 24, 2012 1:44 PM CST reply actions

There are people who think Allen should be in the Hall of Fame.

I’m not one of those people. But the argument has been made.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 24, 2012 2:05 PM CST up reply actions

HOF talent but he doesn't quite make it for me.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Feb 24, 2012 3:59 PM CST up reply actions

I was at old Comiskey Park one night many moons ago with my older brother (Sox fan)...

…and seen Dick Allen put one on the roof (which was considered quite a feat back then)…it was a steady rainfall that night and when he hit it, it looked like a routine fly ball in the rain…but it never came down. That guy had that unorthodox “bat whip” prior to his swing, but that man could hit.

by Easy Ed on Feb 24, 2012 9:45 PM CST up reply actions

Allen was one of the greatest power hitters in baseball history for more than a decade...

He perhaps was just slightly ahead of his time. We know he couldn’t stand playing for the old-school martinets or company-man dummies who occupied most of baseball’s managerial slots during his 1964-77 career.

Now, with low-key managerial styles the rule throughout baseball, it’s difficult to imagine him running into the same type of trouble that greatly damaged his career. Playing for modern managers in smaller modern ballparks, he likely would be putting up A-Rod numbers year after year.

As long as the Golden Era vets committee includes players who faced Allen in his 10-year prime when he often was the most feared hitter in baseball, he may yet reach Cooperstown. From ’64 through ’74, most anyone who watched the game considered him to be the equal of Aaron, Mays, McCovey and F. Robby.

For overall impact on MLB, his 1972 season with the Sox is equal to Aaron ’57, Mays ’54, Robby ’66 or to the most dominant seasons of any other star of the Golden Era. His performance that year may be most responsible for keeping Chicago a two-team city.

Although I don’t remember seeing him hit any monster shots at Wrigley Field during his Phillies years, I was lucky enough to see the home run he hit off Lindy McDaniel in 1972 that almost reached Harry Caray in the Comiskey bleachers; also saw him hit a HR for the Cards in St. Louis that just missed the plexiglas windows of the Stadium Club under the upper deck in left at Busch Stadium.

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by ernaga on Feb 26, 2012 9:18 AM CST up reply actions

I had another look at Allen's career after reading this.

His numbers are more impressive than I remembered, and you’re right about that 1972 season.

He played 3B for only about a third of his total games, which gives him less of a call to Hall greatness. Most of his games were as a first baseman, including all but six games after his age-29 season.

Hall of Very Good for him.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 26, 2012 9:56 AM CST up reply actions

Saw him hit the longest homerun live in my lifetime.

Old Connie Mack stadium( Yes I am that old) over the roof in leftfield, 480+. Phillie fans had a love/hate with him, more hate. Back in the 60’s you could imagine the crap they did to him.
But boy he could hit.

by Grockcubs on Feb 24, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions

It was Phillies fans who were the reason for him wearing a helmet in the field...

…if I recall. He said he was being pelted with all sorts of objects in the field. Tough crowd.

by Easy Ed on Feb 24, 2012 9:47 PM CST up reply actions

It is the city where Santa Claus got booed......

by ClarkFan on Feb 24, 2012 10:01 PM CST up reply actions

I like Stewart,

not crazy about the strikeouts. If he could get to a 780 OPS with 20+ homeruns I would take it.

by Grockcubs on Feb 24, 2012 2:08 PM CST reply actions

Stewart walks around 7-8% of the time, placing him just behind Soto as the best eye on the Cubs. Suggests bad contact. But yeah, striking out once per 3 ABs is excessive.

If he could sustain 780 OPS and >20 homers, I would take it, too. Maybe even until Baez shows up.

Does anyone know about his fielding? His % seems good, but what about his range?

by jawsofvictory on Feb 24, 2012 2:30 PM CST up reply actions

I'm a big fan of Stewart.

Good defense and 20+ HR would certainly be nice.

by Dcr18 on Feb 24, 2012 2:30 PM CST reply actions

AL THIS IS YOUR BEST STATS-BASED ARTICLE YET

KEEP IT UP YOU MIGHT HAVE A FUTURE CAREER ON YOUR HANDS

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Feb 24, 2012 4:00 PM CST reply actions

Is your caps lock broken?

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by Al Yellon on Feb 24, 2012 5:07 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

He's having trouble...

…CONTROLLING THE VOLUME OF HIS VOICE. It’s a side effect of the unfreezing process.

"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach

by daver on Feb 24, 2012 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs

Ah.

Thanks for the explanation.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 24, 2012 5:30 PM CST up reply actions

I RECOMMENDED YOUR POST

I LIKE YOU, SIR

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Feb 24, 2012 6:30 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Projections for Stewart

Bill James: .247/.328/.444 .772 ops, 10 hrs. in 239 ab
Baseball prospectus: .252/.333/.454 .787 ops ,10 hrs. in 250 ab
Right now, the Cubs are saying Stewart will get a shot vs. LH, so the AB’s may be low.
Yeah—my Baseball Prospectus & BA Prospect Handbook arrived today!

by BVictor on Feb 24, 2012 6:19 PM CST reply actions

by RiskyBusiness on Feb 25, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions

I'm all for holding out hope on the Ian Stewart matter, but we need to be more honest with those numbers.

Not only are they a touch arbitrary, they undersell the the that Stewart was quite considerably worse than each of those guys during that age 24 season — especially in context: