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Know Your Enemy: Cubs NL Central Opponents

Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds hits the ball against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

With the first game of spring training now less than a week away, I thought I'd revive a series I did a couple of years ago, briefly previewing all the teams the Cubs will play this year. This will run in four parts -- one for each of the other National League divisions, and one for the Cubs' American League opponents.

The NL Central has a much-changed landscape this year, with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder no longer in the division (or the league, either), the Reds making a big trade to bolster their rotation, and the changes the Cubs have made.

The Pirates and Astros are still in the division.

After the jump, previews of the Cubs' five NL Central opponents, not necessarily in predicted order of finish.

Star-divide

Milwaukee Brewers. 2011 finish: 1st place, 96-66. The Brewers breathed a sigh of relief when Ryan Braun's possible suspension for using a banned substance was overturned by an arbitrator. The purpose here is not to rehash that; you're surely doing that enough in multiple other posts. Braun will thus be in Milwaukee's Opening Day lineup. Losing Prince Fielder's bat will hurt; they've attempted to replace at least some of that production with former Cub Aramis Ramirez, who will start at third base for them. We don't need to rehash A-Ram, either; all of us are familiar with both his good and bad points. Mat Gamel, who has been buried in Milwaukee's system for four years, will take over at first base for Fielder.

Apart from that, the Brewers return essentially intact. Francisco Rodriguez, who many felt might leave Milwaukee to close elsewhere, accepted arb and will return to set up John Axford, who had an outstanding season in 2011. The only significant player the Brewers won't have back is Casey McGehee, who was traded to the Pirates to make room for Ramirez. The Brewers signed Japanese outfielder Norichika Aoki, primarily as plan B if Braun had been out; what they'll do with him now is anyone's guess.

And for amusement, Corey Patterson will be in Brewers camp.

St. Louis Cardinals. 2011 finish: 90-72, second place, NL wild card. Not only will the Cardinals be without Albert Pujols. they've got a new manager for the first time in 16 years. Mike Matheny has never managed anywhere, so how he'll do is anyone's guess. Perhaps more importantly, pitching guru Dave Duncan won't be in St. Louis this year. He's been credited with resurrecting the careers of numerous pitchers. The effects of pitching coaches are often overrated, but Duncan is the one guy who does appear to have really had an impact on St. Louis' pitching staff.

The Cardinals signed Carlos Beltran to take the place of Pujols' bat; Lance Berkman will play first base with Beltran in the outfield. Beltran's good, but he's no Pujols, and he will be 35 in April. The Cardinals will have a full year of Rafael Furcal at shortstop -- and that should markedly improve their defense there over Ryan Theriot -- but he's also approaching 35.

Adam Wainwright, who missed all of last season, is expected to return. But the question the Cardinals need to answer is: will he, and the oft-injured Chris Carpenter, be solid, or fragile? If it's the former, St. Louis will contend to repeat their World Series title. If not, they could be in for a rough year.

Cincinnati Reds. 2011 finish: 79-83, third place. Remember last year's White Sox slogan? "All in"? The Sox spent a ton of money in an all-out push to win the AL Central.

That didn't work out for them. The Reds, though not on a spending spree, appear to be doing the same sort of thing before Joey Votto hits free agency after 2013. They traded Yonder Alonso -- who could eventually have replaced Votto -- and several other top prospects for Mat Latos, who they hope will lead a revamped rotation to the division title. They signed Ryan Madson as a free agent to be their closer and they're attempting to convert 103-MPH fastball thrower Aroldis Chapman to starting.

This all could work, or blow up in Dusty Baker's face. (Knowing Dusty, I think you'll agree the latter could very well happen.)

The Reds will hand over two starting jobs to rookies at important positions. Zack Cozart will start at shortstop, and Devin Mesoraco at catcher. Cozart is 26 and his minor league numbers are nothing special.

But Mesoraco. Man, that guy can hit. He went only 9-for-50 in a September callup, but I wouldn't be surprised if he winds up NL Rookie of the Year.

Pittsburgh Pirates. 2011 finish: 72-90, fourth place. The Pirates were 53-47 and tied for first place on July 25, 2011. The next day, they played and lost a 19-inning game to the Braves in which the winning run scored on an apparent blown call by the home plate umpire.

That seemed to take all the stuffing out of the Bucs. The loss began a 3-16 stretch and the Pirates overall went 19-43 from that game through season's end.

They return most of the same cast, except with Clint Barmes replacing Ronny Cedeno at shortstop and Garrett Jones moving to first base to replace the departed Derrek Lee. You might not notice a change in performance level at either of those positions. Their big offseason deal brought A.J. Burnett from the Yankees in exchange for a pair of miscellaneous minor leaguers; Pittsburgh's main contribution was giving the Yankees some salary relief. That's strange to say about a team that has had among the lowest payrolls in MLB the last few years.

The Pirates have a superstar in the making in Andrew McCutchen, but not much else.

Houston Astros. 2011 finish: 56-106, 6th place. From 1969 through 1993, the Astros were a NL West team that came to Chicago twice a year and only was really on the radar screen in that brief time in the late 1980s when they were playoff contenders.

From 1994 until now, the Astros have been a division rival; the teams fought it out for the division title in 2003 and, after Houston moved into Enron Field Minute Maid Park, the rivalry was a bit more even. The Cubs had a horrific record in the Astrodome, but have played the Astros a bit better than even in Houston since their current stadium opened: 50-49. We'll say goodbye to the Astros after this year as they move to the AL West; the Cubs probably won't see them more than once every three years or so.

You'll notice I haven't said a word about any of the Astros' actual players here. That's because none of them is really worth mentioning. That's not entirely true, actually; Jordan Schafer, once a top Braves prospect, is a pretty good player; J.D. Martinez might turn into a decent hitter; Jose Altuve looks good and Brian Bogusevic hit a walkoff grand slam off Carlos Marmol last August 16.

Brett Myers has always had the Cubs' number; Wandy Rodriguez is pretty good, but he'll probably be the subject of trade rumors before April is over, and Jordan Lyles became the youngest player in baseball -- seven months younger than Starlin Castro -- when he made his major league debut against the Cubs last May 31 at Wrigley Field. Lyles' stats were pretty poor -- 2-8, 5.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 71 ERA+ -- but then, so were Greg Maddux' numbers at age 20.

The Astros lost 106 games in 2011, a franchise record. It's not impossible to think they could break it this year.

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It almost sounds like the division is winnable...


If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid. I'm a Sheeple and proud of it!
Spelling and grammar errors are included for creative and artistic reasons.

by eths on Feb 27, 2012 10:25 AM CST reply actions  

I think we'll need to revisit

this post at the end of spring training in case there are any significant changes (and also just for things like definite batting orders/pitching rotations). But nice post Al.

Also, it’s stupid that the Astros are moving to the AL next year. They should stay in the NL. If Bud Selig wanted 15 and 15 the Brewers should have never moved in the first place.

by Liverpoolcubsfan on Feb 27, 2012 10:26 AM CST reply actions  

There was a proposal

… to do 15/15 in 1997, when the D’backs and then Devil Rays were going to enter MLB the next season. It would have involved radically realigning the leagues geographically — Mets/Yankees, Cubs/White Sox, Angels/Dodgers, etc. in the same divisions.

People didn’t like this because of the 100+ years worth of league histories that would have been destroyed, so it never happened, and probably never will.

For the record, the Royals were offered a switch to the NL first in 1997, and declined. That’s why the Brewers got the chance to do it.

There are plenty of things to criticize about Bud Selig, but thinking he forced the Brewers into the NL against everyone’s wishes isn’t one of them.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 27, 2012 10:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Well, the Cubs just need to get better, then.

And if the goal is to win in the post-season, that’s kind of the point.

by DisCUBbobulated on Feb 27, 2012 12:38 PM CST up reply actions  

So now

Texas has 2 AL West teams instead of 1 AL team (Dallas/Texas Rangers) and 1 NL team (Houston Astros). Every other state/area with 2 teams has 1 of each: New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Bay Area, Missouri, Ohio, Florida. Only Pennsylvania has 2 NL teams and their state is a geographic mishmash so it might as well belong to different regions even (Pittsburgh fitting in with Rust Belt cities like Cleveland & Detroit, Philadelphia obviously part of the Eastern cities dating back to the Colonial era, and inbetween Pennsyltucky AKA “the T” when politicians want to be polite. Really it’s 2 corners of other regions and then north Appalachia).

And yeah, Astros not in NL means one less team for the Cubs to get easy wins off of… unless you’re anticipating the Cubs to play worse than the Astros.

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 10:11 PM CST up reply actions  

The Cubs had the 5th-worst record in all of baseball last yr even WITH playing the Astros.

We expect them to be an elite team, which means they need to play consistently well vs good teams and win. Worrying about competitive advantages of playing a weaker schedule is not the mindset of a championship team.

I’m not so bothered by the geographical situation. Dallas/Houston are actually farther apart than San Diego/Los Angeles, or Chicago/Milwaukee. I feel bad for Houston insofar as they have to shift leagues, which is an organizational adjustment, but am still glad that the NL Central is back to it’s historical teams.

by DisCUBbobulated on Feb 28, 2012 10:24 AM CST up reply actions  

I don’t know about easy wins…. no matter how bad the Astros have been in recent years, it always seemed that they would win more games against the Cubs than lose.

by TakeoutArtist on Feb 29, 2012 8:59 AM CST up reply actions  

I think everyone would agree the Cardinals and Brewers will be down.

And I think the Reds have to go up. Who knows about the Pirates. The question left to answer is how far? I put the Cardinals at a generous 84 wins and the Brewers at 86 wins. A healthy Reds team I pick to win the Central with 87 and the Pirates an even .500 with 82 because I think they will hang on a little longer this year after they had a taste of first place in July.

Injuries are going to be the biggest concern with any team, but more so in what I consider a close Central Race. I’m looking squarely at the Cardinals because I think they are the most brittle of the bunch.

The Cubs won’t be there is the conventional guess but with a new generation of front office, coaching staff and new players, who really knows. Maybe we get a bounce from all this “newness”. Maybe there are some career years. It really won’t take a lot to jump into the middle of this race and a spoiler role may be what we can do best. Dale may have an inside track on how to pitch the Brewers and that could be enough to turn 75 wins into 80. An injury or two in Cardinal camp and some one-run wins could get us in the conversation. Like Liverpoolcubsfan said above, let’s revisit this at the end of March.

We'll miss you Big Boy. #10 is going into the Hall of Fame!!

by mrcubsfan on Feb 27, 2012 10:33 AM CST reply actions  

Agree to an extent

I think the Brewers will be down, but will still contend, and the acquisitions and the return of Wainwright should help the Cards hold steady. The article raises great points about Braun and no Fielder protecting him in the lineup. I think even with a full season of PED, the Brewers should be able to compete, but there will definitely be a drop off there.

The Reds should be up I agree, but they may still be a pitcher short.

For the top 3, it could all come down to those all important one run games, extra inning games, and LUCK. Brewers performed better than their Pythagoreadn W-L last year by 6 wins, and the Reds did just the opposite., so whoever is luckiest might wind up winning the division.

I would say the divsion should go about:

Cards 88-74
Brewers 87-75
Reds 84-78
Cubs 80-82
Pirates 78-84
Astros 65-97

Cubs could surpise some people, but the pitching is going to be pretty shaky past Garza this year, and once Theo gets done with the rebuild is the time to start being really optimistic, which is probably at least 3 years away.

by backtocali on Feb 27, 2012 11:34 AM CST up reply actions  

Agree about the Cardinals

The Cardinals performance is relying on a lot of guys that are injury prone and on the wrong side of 30. I believe Beltran, Furcal, Berkman, and Carpenter will have trouble staying on the field. Wainwright is still a questionable. I am expecting a recovery similar to Joe Nathan, who took half a year to get back in form.

by Mitchener on Feb 27, 2012 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm thinking

1st/2nd Cardinals & Brewers fighting it out
3rd Reds
4th/5th Cubs & Pirates duking it out. Depending on misc. factors, either could make a run on 3rd.
6th Astros

injuries and whatnot would of course throw this out the window

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 10:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh, and Astros

at 97 losses? I don’t think so, 100 would be far back in their rearview mirror. Worst than last year? Maybe. Around last year give or take 2 games probably most likely. Cubs 80-82 is probably waaaay too optimistic. Probably:
mid .400s most likely scenario
low .400s to just under .400 less likely but still possible
upper .400s less likely, less likely than low .400s

Of course, if Cardinals are dysfunctional and the injury bug gets around NL Central, then the Cubs may fare better.

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 10:15 PM CST up reply actions  

The Cardinals might be down this year,

but their farm system is amongst the best in baseball and they may be poised to be the best in the Central for quite some time.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Feb 27, 2012 10:47 AM CST reply actions  

Could be.

But I think they will miss TLR and Duncan more than anyone realizes.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 27, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree with this because as far as MLB coaches go,

Duncan was probably the biggest difference maker in both leagues.

We'll miss you Big Boy. #10 is going into the Hall of Fame!!

by mrcubsfan on Feb 27, 2012 11:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Is he coaching elsewhere

The Stat Pack

by shoemile on Oct 21, 2011 10:10 PM CDT

by Madison Cub Fan on Feb 27, 2012 1:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes...please... I may've been

asleep at the wheel…but what happened to D Duncan???

There are no facts, only interpretations.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Lets Go Theo!!! 10/13/2011

by jeffstorm2 on Feb 27, 2012 4:06 PM CST up reply actions  

i believe his wife is sick

And he wants to spend time with her

by Mitchener on Feb 27, 2012 4:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Correct.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 27, 2012 4:39 PM CST up reply actions  

So the Cubs best hope is for:

injuries & karma? It’s going to be a bumpy ride. But turning 75 W’s into 80 – Doesn’t seem to be out of reach. I think I read it here: that Dale S. has them practicing the “small ball” I sure would like to see those 1 run games go our way for a change. Heartbreakers! Agree to re-post @ end of March … Go Cubs Go.

DonDaCubsFan

by dondacubsfan on Feb 27, 2012 10:57 AM CST reply actions  

If Dale Sveum can get 80 wins outta this group...

…then the 2012 NL Manager of the Year is already locked up. I’d be impressed. Hope he can do it.

by Easy Ed on Feb 27, 2012 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

That's assuming the 2012 Cubs

are much better than the 2011 Cubs or that Sveum has some magic that Quade didn’t that can get a better performance out of a team as good or a little better than the 2011 Cubs or that Quade was a trap and his direction was misdirection and made the 2011 Cubs perform way below where they should have been.

I don’t see a team much better than the 2011 Cubs. Even slightly better? Kinda doubtful. As outraged as people got over Big Z, they forgot about all his days on the mound he didn’t blow his top and pitched decently. And usually after a blowup and time off, he pitches his best. It’s a cycle: blow up, put in a time out, return and play excellent, diminishing returns leads to anger, blow up, rinse and repeat. Bullpen seems weaker overall and Marmol is still with the Cubs. The area where things might improve is defense (i.e. error reduction) but at the center of it all, teams win/lose on their bullpen.

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 10:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Your point about Z is fair...

But we replaced him with a pitcher that had far superior numbers the last couple of years in Maholm. Top that off with the fact that Coleman and Russell wont be starting 20+ games, and those games will be taken by a combo of Wells/Volstad/Wood and that’s a pretty major difference.

Our offense may have taken a slight hit, but I believe our defense has improved enough to make that more even than we think. Overall, I think a few games better than last year is not out of the question.

by bdlugz on Feb 28, 2012 9:52 AM CST up reply actions  

Hope you're right, but...

Offense takes a “slight” hit? We lost our only elite hitter (A-Ram), replacing him with a guy who hit below .200 last year; and we lost our second biggest power threat, replacing him a player who’s unproven at the MLB level. Now all of a sudden, Soriano and Byrd are legitimate candidates to occupy the 4/5 instead of 6/7.

As for defense, I think it’s pretty much aspirational at this point. We added a good defender in RF, but that was never really the problem anyway. Even if Stewart is an upgrade defensively over A-Ram at third (debatable), he’s still a sub-par defender and unlikely to be a guy who makes you think we can win with defense first. At 1B, Pena to LaHair is almost certainly a sizeable downgrade, and one that could really matter given that our biggest defensive liability is still Castro. Even if Castro improves as he naturally should, how much of that will be offset by the absence of Pena’s glove in preventing errors?

by Orval Overall on Feb 28, 2012 1:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I would argue that we can definitely expect at least a reasonable bounce back from Stewart

in 2008, he was exactly average offensively with a 100 wRC+, 2009 was at 93, 2010 was at 97, 2011 was at 13… yes, 13. I think, even if he doesn’t return to 100, I think he can at LEAST return to the 93-97 he was at in 2009-2010. To claim his defensive increase at 3rd is debatable, I don’t think it’s even close. The last 3 years, Ramirez has averaged a UZR/150 of around -8. Stewart is at around 5.0.

The improvement in RF overall from 2010 is around 3.5 WAR, and that’s just assuming DDJ can be a 2 WAR player, which he has averaged above each of the last 4 years.

I also agree LaHair is a wild card, but I’m willing to say that he won’t be much different offensively than LaHair, and might actually offer a slightly better BA (with a similar OBP due to less walks), and similar slugging. I think we’ll lose a bit on the defensive end, but no more than we make up at 3rd.

I think the offensive side will struggle and be slightly worse, the defense should be improved at RF (massively), 3rd (massively) and decreased at 1st (massively), but we can also see defensive improvement at 1st and CF when/if Rizzo and Jackson take over as well.

Pitching should be a massive improvement just from the depth, assuming no major injuries or total regressions.

I’m not saying the Cubs will be great this year, or even good. But I don’t think 75-77 wins should be completely out of the question for them given the changes made and potential improvements coming up.

by bdlugz on Feb 28, 2012 3:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I also agree LaHair is a wild card, but I’m willing to say that he won’t be much different offensively than LaHair

I think we can say this is definitively true.

:-)

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by Al Yellon on Feb 28, 2012 3:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Bah! I meant Pena.

The LaHair on my head must have stopped my brain from working properly.

by bdlugz on Feb 28, 2012 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Somehow the Pujols and Fielder migrations to the AL

Didn’t sink in until I read this. Craziness. It’s nice that the Cubs are no longer the most dependent on aging stars. Of course, not having stars is another way of looking at it.

by jawsofvictory on Feb 27, 2012 11:17 AM CST reply actions  

Look at it this way.

The Cubs are developing young stars. That’s the way to build a winner.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 27, 2012 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

For sure.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m looking forward to this season more than any of the past three. Buying up expensive, aging, FA’s is not my idea of a fun team. If anything, I want more gambling on youth!

by jawsofvictory on Feb 27, 2012 11:47 AM CST up reply actions  

Or brown dwarfs

Time and games tell whether prospects ignite into stars or just remain on low burn and only light up the infrared, not the visible spectrum. And some stars remain dwarf stars, some become giants, a few supergiants.

Zambrano was a star, but he was a flare star known for his nasty flares and there were fears he would go supernova. Some of the mid ’00s contracts, now those were black holes.

And yeah, it is the way to build a winner. Baseball teams need a farm. Buying your way to victory (without doing anything else) doesn’t really work.

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 10:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Castro

is right there on the fringe of star consideration. If he matures out of his youthful mistakes or whatever you want to call them, I’d call him a star. If they are part of his permanent makeup, he’d still be a pretty remarkable player.

by ol Pete on Feb 27, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions  

Fringe, yes.

I’m a big fan and followed his progression through the minors, but I’m waiting to see how this year goes. He’s an awesome hitter, no doubt, and if learns to be more selective than he could be a regular in the all-star game. I’m less bothered by his attention span than some.

by jawsofvictory on Feb 27, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice overview, too, Al!

I don’t keep up on the enemies. Tidbits like Chapman’s possible conversion to starter are super interesting…and nuts. Do they think he’ll be able to throw like that for 200 innings a year? I like Chapman, fun pitcher, but throwing that hard for 6 innings? Dunno.

by jawsofvictory on Feb 27, 2012 11:22 AM CST reply actions  

Doubt Aroldis will be maintaining 100+ MPH as starter

He needs to learn how to pitch more than throw anyway, and of course he can’t give it everything he has for 6 innings at a time, like you say. But a mid to high 90s fastball is reasonable, and he could be electric.

I think the Reds are going to be one of the biggest surprises in the NL this year. They were close to breaking out last year, but pitching was a bit of an issue. This year they have Latos, another growth year from Leake, a full year of Mesoraco, and I still say Bruce could break out and put up even better numbers.

My prediction in standings: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Astros.

www.rotomanagers.com

by varrys on Feb 27, 2012 11:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Chapman could definitely be a difference maker for them

I bet if Arroyo falls flat again, Chapman replaces him, but he might be stretched out enough until June.

I definitely like the Reds chances, one other unknown quantity for them will be Juan Francisco, if he can play a solid LF for them, and hit 20+ HR they could be very dangerous.

by backtocali on Feb 27, 2012 11:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Right now Francisco seems to be likely to get some 3B time too

Rolen usually isn’t healthy, and Baker said he was planning on Francisco to go 40 games at 3B last year before he got hurt. I don’t know how great he’ll be in the outfield, but I bet if Rolen struggles early on, they’ll let the younger guy play much more.

www.rotomanagers.com

by varrys on Feb 27, 2012 11:57 AM CST up reply actions  

This overview reminds me to take the 2012 with a side of very cold water..

And several shots of stiff drinks. I think the Reds, Brewers, and Cards (if their pitching holds up), are all still quite a bit ahead of the Cubs, most notably in the ever-important starting pitching category. Replacing Pujols and Fielder doesn’t cost the Cards and Suds more than 5 wins each, if you buy into that whole WAR thing.

That being said, I don’t mind watching a plucky team that builds some confidence in character in 2012, even if they finish tied with Pittsburgh at 75 wins or so.

by DisCUBbobulated on Feb 27, 2012 11:54 AM CST reply actions  

I'm not a big fan of WAR but I see it's usefulness

I can’t tell you how many games I watched Fielder win last year with a late-inning RBI or last at-bat. Same with Pujols (2 in a row against the Cubs).

by Mapmaker on Feb 27, 2012 1:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Taking out Pujols & Fielder

doesn’t seem to take the Cards & Brewers down to the Cubs level. They weren’t a house of cards with these 2 sluggers as the load-bearing card/pole. The sum of their team minus their ex-player is still greater than the current Cubs roster.

This whole thread seems to have passed the Kool-aid around and the crazy idea of the Cubs winning the NL Central seems to be building under the surface. After a bunch of pessimism in the winter, the early signs of spring seem to be having the Cubs magic bedazzle everyone again with people starting to forget buiding a contender is supposed to take 2-3 years minimum. In all reality, the Cubs will probably finish 4th or 5th, some chance at 3rd, much much less odds for 2nd and odds of 1st are probably the same as finishing in 6th. But then again, weird things in baseball happen like the 200 or 300 million to 1 odds of the Red Sox not making the postseason in 2011.

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 10:30 PM CST up reply actions  

As someone that doesn't pay that much attention to the other teams,

I am going to find this series very helpful.

Seeing the cactus on the bcb logo made me very happy today.

The phrase "It happens every spring" wasn't invented to describe the craziness and mass optimism that grips baseball at that special time of the year, but it fits as snugly as as catcher's mask. -Bob Uecker

by katie casey on Feb 27, 2012 1:02 PM CST reply actions  

I'm going to miss him.

The phrase "It happens every spring" wasn't invented to describe the craziness and mass optimism that grips baseball at that special time of the year, but it fits as snugly as as catcher's mask. -Bob Uecker

by katie casey on Feb 27, 2012 1:27 PM CST up reply actions  

~...sigh...~

There are no facts, only interpretations.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Lets Go Theo!!! 10/13/2011

by jeffstorm2 on Feb 27, 2012 4:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Apparently Rizzo took one out 475 to CF

over the batter’s eye.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Feb 27, 2012 1:24 PM CST reply actions  

Apparently..

I can’t wait for him to be ready for the Majors.

In Theo and Jed I Trust

by KJ24 on Feb 27, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions  

We shouldn't look at the NL Central as winnable.

There are three very good teams in this division, and I don’t think any of them are primed for a major decline. Certainly, we shouldn’t count on all three of them declining, which would be what the Cubs would need to “steal” a division.

The Reds are loaded, and not in the way the 2011 White Sox were loaded. Cincinnati made good win-now moves (Marshall, Latos) and counting on Dusty to go all 2004 isn’t really fair. Certainly, he deserves blame for that collapse, but I’m not sure you can say he’s prone to letting his teams collapse. If Bronson Arroyo can rebound, I have a hard time seeing another team winning the Central.

The Brewers won’t decline much either. Gamel and Aramis won’t be much worse than Fielder and Gamel — as long as Aramis is healthy.

Of the three teams, the Cardinals are the most likely to decline — but that’s only because I think the Brewers and Reds are such safe bets to be good. The Cardinals don’t typically do dumb things, so I don’t think Matheny will be a Quade-style disaster. It’s possible that the team won’t be able to get past the losses of TLR and Duncan — getting a No. 3 starter seemingly every year off the scrap heap was invaluable — but I think the roster is pretty strong.

The Astros are the Astros, and I don’t have faith in Pittsburgh being that good (seems like they’re right on the edge of getting out of youth movements every few years, without success). Still, the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals are all primed for good seasons. Now, 2013 — with Berkman, Beltran, Carpenter and Ramirez all aging and Votto possibly gone — is another story, and might just coincide with the Cubs on the upswing.

Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

by elgato on Feb 27, 2012 1:26 PM CST reply actions   2 recs

I'd rather just try to enjoy this year's team as it is

There are at least 2 teams that I think could win up to 90 games in this division in the Cards and Reds and one that could win up to 88 in the Brewers. The Cubs look like a 75 win team on paper and I think people are just going to make themselves crazy if they spend all Spring hoping for something that’s not going to happen.

2013 is a whole different story, though….

by subtle on Feb 27, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Invariably, someone will now mention a team that came out of nowhere.

But I agree with you. I’ve never seen the Cubs try a youth movement, and I think it will be more interesting than the patchwork group of veterans from the past couple years.

And, yes, 2013 should be fun.

Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

by elgato on Feb 27, 2012 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree

I’m just going to enjoy each game as a separate entity.

by Stan Cox on Feb 27, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I could enjoy it a lot more...

if we didn’t still have to pay like something was going to happen.

--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field

@JamesDaBear

by jameslcrockett on Feb 27, 2012 2:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, good point.

Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

by elgato on Feb 27, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Ultimately

it’s baseball at Wrigley (or the opposing team’s ballpark), the crack of the bat, the cheer of the crowd, Len & Bob’s voice… and on the downside about 3-5 dozen stupid beer commercials during the game. Even under Quade, they were entertaining, though you had to not take them seriously and approach the 2011 Cubs like you would a good B-movie.

Anyone remember how annoying the Bud-Wise-Er frog commercials were during those years for baseball games?

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 10:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't see the Cubs contending...

…this year. What I truly hope to see is a team that plays hard which ideally makes for some good luck, breaks even if it doesn’t translate into a lot more wins.

Brewers, Cardinals and Reds should be the teams fighting it out for the division. IMO the Brewers have, on paper, better, deeper starting pitching which should go a long way towards them being able to beat out the Cards and Reds. I have read that Hart might be dropped down in the line up so A-Ram, Gamel and Hart combo should be able to lessen the loss of Fielder.

If LaRussa was still managing I would hold out a bit more hope for the Cards. Matheny played fo LaRussa and maybe he learned some things but, it is such a wild card who knows how it may help, hurt or be a nuetral point. Age and/or injury has to be a major concern (Berkman, Beltran, Furcal, Freese).

Reds…can they overcome Dusty???? In all honesty he probably gets too much blame as LaRussa may have received too much credit for their teams fortunes. I think it all boils down to their pitching. If it can be steady….I think they have enough offense to outscore most teams. They don’t necessarily need a Cy Young canidate on their staff.

I think a lot depends on how they do against each other as they should all feast on Cubs, Pirates and Brewers.

by Rkfd Die Hard on Feb 27, 2012 2:57 PM CST reply actions  

I'd like to see a young starter, hitter, and reliever emerge this year.

Id like to see a good performance from either Twood, Volstad, or Mcnutt. We have a lot bullpen type guys and i expect one of them to stand out. I would like to see Lahair, Rizzo, or Jackson show some potential.

by Mitchener on Feb 27, 2012 4:34 PM CST reply actions  

I predict

heart:
1. Cubs
2. Reds
3. Cards
4. Brewers
5. Pirates
6. Astros

brain:
1. Reds
2. Cards
3. Cubs
4. Brewers
5. Pirates
6. Astros

by cubs2410 on Feb 27, 2012 7:04 PM CST reply actions  

Let's see...

Heart:
1. Pirates (after 20 years of losing, this would feel really good to see. I sympathize with their fanbase and they came so close before their long slump last year)
2. Reds (as wild card too. The ‘00s was a very subpar decade for them, they had 1 good year then slumped again. Would be nice to see them have a chance to play in the postseason and not get swept)
3. Cubs (Gasp! Heresy, I know, but the Cubs of the ’00s had some great years, postseason berths, and an overall better decade than the long-suffering Reds and really long-suffering Pirates. I’m willing to not want the Cubs in first every year to allow other teams a chance at postseason glory, like a Little Red Machine which can muster enough uuumph to make a postseason run once every 3-4 years)
4. Brewers
5. Astros
6. Cardinals
(let them lose 100 games for a change)

Head:
I’ve said it earlier in the thread. The Cardinals will probably end up in 1st anyway because they feed off the hatred of the other fanbases in the NL Central and through some dark magic, can convert that hatred into runs which help them win games.

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 10:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Your brain tells you the Cubs finish ahead of the Brewers?

Could happen, I suppose. But man does that seem unlikely.

I’ll be surprised if we finish in front of the Pirates this year. More likely scenario, I think:

1. Brewers (20 games over .500)
2. Reds (15 over)
3. Pirates (.500)
4. Cardinals (who fade more than expected w/o Pujols, and w/ Berkman & Beltran unable to replicate last year – 2 under)
5. Cubs (20 under)
6. Astros (30 under)

by Orval Overall on Feb 28, 2012 9:51 AM CST up reply actions  

I find myself agreeing with your comments in this thread

I just don’t know what to expect the Cards to do though. They sure have a lot of parts that are ricketty, but they never seem to end up like I expect.

by ol Pete on Feb 28, 2012 9:05 PM CST up reply actions  

know your odds

MLB National League Central
Thu 3/1 8:00AM
Cincinnati Reds +135
St. Louis Cardinals +225
Milwaukee Brewers +315
Chicago Cubs +1500
Pittsburgh Pirates +2000
Houston Astros +12500

by WhistlerWilliams on Feb 27, 2012 9:54 PM CST reply actions  

and this seems like a good bet ;)

world series matchup

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox +80000

by WhistlerWilliams on Feb 27, 2012 9:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Only +12500?

that 12500:1? What kind of devastation would have to be wrought in the NL Central for those odds to be fulfilled? The huge odds against the Red Sox missing the playoffs were so huge and it took the manager to be tied up on two different fronts, a pitching beerpen, some injuries, and a lot of misdirection in spring training and late in. Plus maybe a certain hurricane which people tied the start of their descent to.

by ddoubleheader on Feb 27, 2012 11:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't know where those odds came from...

but it usually means bet $100 to win $12500 or something like that.

--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field

@JamesDaBear

by jameslcrockett on Feb 29, 2012 12:14 AM CST up reply actions  

Betting odds don't indicate the likelihood of an event.

Betting odds are designed to balance the number of people betting on each side.

Odds like 12500:1 are set because the house thinks that they’ll get 1 bet on the Cubs for every 12,500 bets against them. (That’s a little simplistic, because it wouldn’t allow for the house cut, but you get the idea.)

by CJK on Feb 29, 2012 7:55 AM CST up reply actions  

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