If time permits, I think I will do this for each of the remaining homestands in 2013. When predicting the attendance, I am giving myself a range of 1,908 fans (If Gonzalez can field a Sunday hop, it could have been 2003) for each game. I will factor opponent, matchup, weather, promotion and day of week, and ticket behavior on Stubhub to finalize the prediction. Without further ado, here are my predictions.
4/29 – Padres
(29,000 – 30,908) – Nice weather, weak opponent, value game
4/30 – Padres (29,500 – 31,408) – Nicest forecast for the week may drive some walk up sales to this value game.
5/1 – Padres (28,800 – 30,708)
5/2 – Padres (24,800 – 26,708) – Can’t the Padres go away! Potential to have the lowest attendance in years, the Cubs
should have offered some of the nicer promotions to lure some fans for the Padre series.
5/3 – Reds
(31,500 – 33,408) – The first of four promotions for the Topps cards. I think if they were giving away 20,000 of these cards, they would have sold more tickets. Be on the lookout for people that will be offering $10-15 for your pack as you enter the door but I do not think it is driving ticket sales as there are hundreds of seats for under $15 on Stubhub. Chance of rain.
5/4 – Reds (33,900 – 35,808) – 10,000 Derby Hat, Saturday.
5/5 – Reds (32,700 – 34,608) – 5,000 kids color their own shirts and 1,000 kids run the bases. I love the kids runs the bases, I hate that it states it is only for the first 1,000 kids. If the Cubs actually enforce this it would be very poor form.
5/6 – Rangers
makeup (28,900 – 30,808) – 10,000 Winter hats. There will be a lot less people in the stands than the attendance that is ultimately announced
5/7 – Cardinals
– (34,000 – 35,908) – This will be interesting to see what the attendance is to the Cardinals game as this is an opportunity to see them at a reasonable face value price, but it is still has a chance to be quite cold.
5/8 – Cardinals (32,700 – 34,608) – Pink out in the bleachers won’t drive many ticket sales.
And there you have it. I am Confident that I will get at least 7 of these right. We’ll see how good I am as the season progresses.
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