Like everyone else, I would be ecstatic to see the Cubs sign Lester this off season. His experience on the field and in the clubhouse would do wonders for this young, but talented and exciting team. Not to mention that he has ace material to start on opening day for the Cubbies.
But I would like to turn my attention to another pitcher who I think the Cubs would greatly benefit from signing as well. Before I do though, let's look at what the Cubs have and will potentially get before 2015 starts.
IF the Cubs were to acquire Lester in FA, that would give them a starting rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Wood and either Doubront or Turner. Cubs brass has already stated that Wada will not be back and I can almost guarantee that Jackson's days of sniffing the mound at Wrigley Field are done.
Let's assume that Theo doesn't believe Turner still has his "stuff" back yet and needs more time at Iowa, so he takes the trip to Des Moines, a decision that I would agree with at this point.
That means Doubront would be our fifth starter and while he has shown in the few starts that he has the ability to be our fifth starter, I'm not sold on him just yet and neither should the Cubs FO. He pitched poorly for the Red Sox this year prio to being traded to the Cubs. He was 2-4 with an ERA of 5.19 (29 ER in 50 1/3 IP). In his three starts for the Cubs however, Doubront is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA. While he has pitched well, that's a very small sample size to gauge his worth as the fifth starter going into next season. He will most likely get one more start to finish the season and I hope this is a good sign of things to come for him. It would be amazing if he is able to harness his potential and pitch his way into next season as our fifth starter. I believe he can, especially with Bosio's help.
But what if he can't? Let's say the Cubs do hand him the fifth spot and he struggles going into May. What do you do? Ride it out? Bring up Turner if he's ready? Or Straily? That's a lot of question marks and one that I personally don't like to have. That's where we turn to Chad Billingsley. He had to have surgery on his arm at the start of the 2013 season but then re-injured it again in early 2014, but there's optimism that he will be ready to go in 2015. There's absolutely no way that the Dodgers pick up his $14 million dollar option for 2015, so he will be a FA. I'm not sure if he would be willing to resign at a cheaper, team friendly deal with LA or if the Cubs could sweet talk him into signing with them, but the Cubs FO should long and hard at this guy. Let's take a look at his career stats: In eight season with LA, he is 81-61, with a 3.65 ERA and a 3.67 FIP. Now, l
et's take an even closer look at his body of work:
Standard Pitching
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Glossary · Show Minors Stats · SHARE · Embed · CSV · Export · PRE · LINK · ?Year | Age | Tm | Lg | W | L | G | GS | GF | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | Awards | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006 | 21 | LAD | NL | 7 | 4 | .636 | 3.80 | 18 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90.0 | 92 | 43 | 38 | 7 | 58 | 3 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 403 | 119 | 4.88 | 1.667 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 1.02 | |
2007 | 22 | LAD | NL | 12 | 5 | .706 | 3.31 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 147.0 | 131 | 56 | 54 | 15 | 64 | 3 | 141 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 623 | 135 | 4.02 | 1.327 | 8.0 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 2.20 | |
2008 | 23 | LAD | NL | 16 | 10 | .615 | 3.14 | 35 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200.2 | 188 | 76 | 70 | 14 | 80 | 6 | 201 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 859 | 133 | 3.35 | 1.336 | 8.4 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 9.0 | 2.51 | |
2009 ★ | 24 | LAD | NL | 12 | 11 | .522 | 4.03 | 33 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196.1 | 173 | 94 | 88 | 17 | 86 | 7 | 179 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 823 | 99 | 3.82 | 1.319 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 8.2 | 2.08 | AS |
2010 | 25 | LAD | NL | 12 | 11 | .522 | 3.57 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191.2 | 176 | 82 | 76 | 8 | 69 | 7 | 171 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 817 | 109 | 3.07 | 1.278 | 8.3 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 8.0 | 2.48 | |
2011 | 26 | LAD | NL | 11 | 11 | .500 | 4.21 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 188.0 | 189 | 98 | 88 | 14 | 84 | 4 | 152 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 829 | 87 | 3.83 | 1.452 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 1.81 | |
2012 | 27 | LAD | NL | 10 | 9 | .526 | 3.55 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149.2 | 148 | 66 | 59 | 11 | 45 | 2 | 128 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 634 | 107 | 3.34 | 1.290 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 7.7 | 2.84 | |
2013 | 28 | LAD | NL | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.0 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 124 | 4.38 | 1.417 | 9.0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 1.20 | |
8 Yrs | 81 | 61 | .570 | 3.65 | 219 | 190 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1175.1 | 1109 | 519 | 477 | 87 | 491 | 32 | 1037 | 43 | 0 | 48 | 5037 | 110 | 3.67 | 1.361 | 8.5 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 7.9 | 2.11 | ||||
162 Game Avg. | 13 | 10 | .570 | 3.65 | 36 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 184 | 86 | 79 | 14 | 82 | 5 | 172 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 837 | 110 | 3.67 | 1.361 | 8.5 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 7.9 | 2.11 |
As you can see, his ERA is around 3.50 every year, with two exceptions (4.03 in 2009 and 4.21 in 2011). By examining that chart above, it looks like he had some bad luck and little run support. He can chew up innings and has four very good pitches--a four-seam fastball that tops out at 93, a cut fastball in the upper 80's, a change-up in the mid 80's and a curveball in the upper 70's that he uses as his "out" pitch when he gets batters in a two strike count.
If he can come back and regain his old form, the Cubs could potentially have a steal. Now they just need to figure out if he's worth the risk and how much it would cost to get him. Thankfully, that's not my job. But as a fan, if he's healthy, I would love to see them work out a good deal for both sides and watch him pitch in Wrigley next year.