FanPost

Another Outfielder For The Cubs?

According to a tweet by ESPN reporter Buster Olney, The Chicago Cubs are looking to add another outfielder preferably one who plays center field. At first this tweet came as a surprise to me with the Cubs recently signing Chris Denorfia to a 1yr/$2.6M contract for the upcoming 2015 season. Denorfia will most likely spend time platooning with Chris Coghlan in left and will also back up CF and RF, his ability to play all three OF spots is why I believe that the Cubs signed him over Jonny Gomes who is known more for his bat and is a below average defender who is limited to LF defensively. With the Denorfia signing the Cubs current outfield stands like this: LF: Coghlan/Denorfia (Platoon). CF: Arismendy Alcantara (Starter)/Denorfia (Back-up). RF: Jorge Soler (Starter)/ Denorfia (Back-up). These four players are the only sure bets to be on the opening day roster for 2015. This leaves players such as Ryan Sweeney, Junior Lake, and Matt Szczur as in house options for a fifth outfielder. It is no secret that the Cubs front office is looking for players with high walk rate and a lower strikeout rate to help offset some of the current players that don’t walk much and strike out a lot, i.e. Javier Baez, Alcantara etc… Lets go over these options for the fifth outfield spot.

Ryan Sweeney

Sweeney has shown signs over the last two season of being a very capable back up outfielder, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy and put together a full season. Sweeney has the ability to play all three OF spots, with average to above average defense (which is surprising due to his speed, or lack thereof). When the Cubs signed Sweeney to a minor league deal in 2013 he showed surprising power in AAA slugging 6 homeruns in 23 games, well over his previous major league homerun rate. This power gave him a deserving call to Chicago in 2013, where he continued to perform well, posting a slash line of (.295/.342/.527) in 44 games before fracturing a rib that sidelined him for 6 weeks. Returning from the rib injury Sweeney numbers declined, putting together a line of (.225/.300/.338) in the 26 games after returning from injury, totaling a line of (.266/.324/.448) in 70 games in 2013. Although this is a small sample size you can clearly see that his number drastically decreased after his injury, with his OPS dipping by over 200 points from pre to post injury. Sweeney’s performance was enough to net him a 2yr/$4M contract with a $2.5M option for 2016. Sweeney started the 2014 season on the opening day roster but again due to injuries he was only able to total 77 games in 2014 with a line of (.251/.304/.338). Sweeney’s BB% with the Cubs is 7.3%, which is below the league average of 7.6%. Although Sweeney’s walk rate is about average for the MLB his career K% is 14.6%, which is less than the MLB average of 20.4%. Although his strikeouts are less than league average his K% has been rising over his previous seasons, which suggests that his numbers are starting to regress. In theory Sweeney seems like a good fit for the Cubs fifth outfielder, because of his ability to play all of the OF spots and his offensive ability, but his numbers pre rib injury in 2013 seem like they were a fluke or due to a hot stretch at the plate and his numbers are trending in the wrong direction, and because of this downward trend the cubs should look elsewhere for an additional outfielder.

Junior Lake

Junior Lake is a very intriguing player to watch. In 2013 Lake was only supposed to be up with the big league club for a week or two but he got off to a blazing start, earning him the right to stay with the big league club and gain more playing time. I specifically remember a game in Arizona, his fourth career game to be exact, where I realized that this guy has the tools to be a pretty good MLB player, he ended up 4-5 with 1 HR and 3 RBI, sure that may seem like a great game, but the way he did it was pretty unique. He had two bunt singles, a push bunt and a drag bunt that showed off his good wheels, his two other hits were an absolutely massive homerun that traveled well over 430 feet, and a clutch RBI single to left late in the game. He showed these wide array of skills that had Cubs fans giddy about his bright future. His final slash line in his rookie season was (.284/.332/.428). These numbers earned him a spot in the cubs opening day outfield. Unfortunately his sophomore season was abysmal, posting a line of (.211/.246/.351). Pitchers adjusted to Lake’s hot start and forced him to make the necessary adjustments (which he did not) to have sustained success at the Major League level. Lake’s BB percentage in 2014 was only 4.3% compared to the league average of 7.6%, and his K percentage skyrocketed to 33.7% compared to the league average of 20.4%. Lake was eventually sent down to AAA to try and right the ship. It was a lost season for Lake leaving many cubs fans wondering what happened to the guy that looked like he could be a building block in Chicago for years to come. Lake may be better suited for a change of scenery, going to a team that can utilize his skillset and turn Lake into a good major league player.

Matt Szczur

A former football standout at Villanova, Szczur could have had an NFL career if he wanted to, but he chose baseball over football. He made his big league debut as a September call up in 2014. Szczur is a very talented defender with above average speed totaling 30 steals in AAA. Although in the majors he only got 66 at bats he posted a slash line of (.226/.273/.355). Szczur true value comes as a late game defensive sub of as a pitch runner. He has shown little power in previous minor league seasons and a below average walk rate of 6.6%. Based on the Cubs need for more plate discipline and walks Szczur wouldn’t fit they type of player the Cubs are looking for.

With none of these in Organization options being what they are looking for the Cubs make turn elsewhere to try and find what they need by potentially trading or signing an outfielder. The Cubs have been linked to many outfielders this offseason some of which make sense and some of which may not make sense. Lets take a look at some options for outfielders in 2015.

Dexter Fowler

With the Houston Astros recent trade for Evan Gattis of the Atlanta Braves, rumors started to swirl of Dexter Fowler being on the trade block due to the Astros desire to shift second year slugger George Springer to CF. Fowler would be just the fit the cubs are looking for. Fowler led all CF’s in 2014 in BB% at 13.1%, his K% was slightly above league average at 21.4%, but the Cubs could live with this due to his great plate discipline. Fowler would be a perfect leadoff hitter for the Cubs, who are currently missing a true leadoff hitter in their lineup. Fowler’s high OBP would allow for more RBI opportunities throughout the lineup. Fowler has shown the ability to do a little bit of everything in his career, his high for homers in a season being 13, as well as high of 27 steals. With an addition of Fowler the Cubs could shift Arismendy Alcantara into a super utility role, one similar to what Joe Maddon had in Tampa Bay with Ben Zobrist. Alcantara could be extremely useful as a utility player due to his ability to play both middle infield spots and the outfield, as well as being a switch hitter with surprising pop and above average wheels. If Fowler is indeed on the market the Cubs should definitely call because Fowler gives the Cubs just what they need, OBP and a true leadoff hitter.

Denard Span

Denard Span is entering the last year of his deal with the Nationals, which could lead to the Nationals shopping Span to make room for top prospect Michael Taylor. Although Span is has a slightly above average BB% of 8.6% in his career, he could fit nicely into the Cubs plan. His K% is well below league average at 9.7% in 2014, this could be a nice fit for a lead off hitter due to Span being a high average hitter as well as averaging 26 steals per year in his career. Span is also a very good defender in CF, an upgrade over Alcantara who is still learning the position. This move would again shift Alcantara to a super utility role, which could help add versatility to the roster that is currently missing. Span doesn’t walk as much as the Cubs would like but he consistently puts the ball in play and along with the steals Span could be a nice leadoff hitter for the Cubs.

Ben Revere

The Cubs have been linked to Revere in the offseason as a potential leadoff hitter. Revere brings elite speed from the CF position, totaling 49 steals in 2014. Revere would give the cubs their first real base stealer since Juan Pierre stole 58 bags for the Cubs in 2006. Revere’s BB% in 2014 was on 2.1%, which is well below average. For this reason Revere may be a better fit for the Cubs coming in as a late pinch runner or defensive replacement. Revere probably wouldn’t cost the Cubs a whole lot to trade for him but the question is how much does he bring besides stolen bases? For this reason I do not see the Cubs actively trying to trade for revere unless they want to use him as a late game weapon off the bench.

Colby Rasmus

There have been a few reports that the Cubs have had a meeting with Rasmus, but this was quickly shot down by local media. Rasmus is an interesting buy low option for the Cubs. A former top prospect with the cardinals has shown glimpses of being an elite type talent but overall has failed to put it all together. Rasmus doesn’t fit what the cubs want due to his average BB% of 7.7% and his staggering K% of 33% in 2014. This signing would be a buy low and hope Rasmus puts it all together. Rasmus could fit the Cubs based on his left-handed power, which the Cubs are lacking except for Anthony Rizzo. In 2010 with the Cardinals Rasmus put a line together of (.276/.361/.498) totaling an OPS of .859 which is 150 points above league average. In that season Rasmus totaled 23 homers as well. The skills are there for him to put up consistent good seasons but it just hasn’t happened yet, Rasmus could benefit from playing under Joe Maddon who is known for getting the most out of his players. Rasmus could provide as a fallback option for LF if Chris Coghlan fails to repeat what he did in 2014. Overall Rasmus wouldn’t be exactly what the Cubs are looking for but he could be an interesting option to try and add some left handed power in the Cubs lineup.

B.J. Upton

Before you immediately say no to this idea, there are a few benefits of trading for B.J. Upton. The biggest benefit would be to get rid of Edwin Jackson and his awful performance for the Cubs. That being said though you are still taking on a bad contract in B.J Upton. One way that Upton would fit in with the Cubs is his above average BB%, which is at 10.4% for his career. Upton has also shown the ability to swipe upwards of 30 bags for a season, which would be a welcome sign for the Cubs and their lack of base stealers. Upton also has the ability to hit 20+ homers. Yes there will be strikeouts (26.4% K%) but there will also be more walks as well. Another benefit of acquiring B.J. Upton is that he would be playing under the manager where he had his best years, Joe Maddon. Maddon knows him well and could help B.J. regain his form. Acquiring B.J. Upton could be a huge risk but it would allow you get rid of Edwin Jackson’s bad contract and could also work out well.

When I first saw that the Cubs were interested in adding another outfielder to the mix it didn’t make a ton of sense to me but the more I thought about it the more it made sense. Of these five options Dexter Fowler makes the most sense for what the Cubs are looking for but the Cubs would most likely have to give up more to acquire him than any of the other players above, but I think Fowler would make the team a lot closer to competing in 2015.

All STATS AND DATA USED IN THIS ARTICLE WERE PROVIDED BY FANGRAPHS.COM AND BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM.

Kyle Elsasser




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