FanPost

Looking Ahead to 2018 Free Agents

After coming off a magical year, the Chicago Cubs have reported to spring training and are back in business. As the Cubs are likely to contend this year, the major league team, for the most part, will remain untouched. But, in November, four notable members of the Chicago Cubs will hit the market. Lets take a look at what maybe those free agents will demand through projections.

Projections: For this article, I will be using 2017 Steamer Projections. I will punch those numbers into Ryan Tansey's WAR Calculator

Jake Arrieta- SP

After a monster season in 2015, Jake Arrieta took a step back from a historical season, which tells about how good he is, because he was still dominant, even throwing a no hitter. Steamer projects Arrieta to still be great in 2017. They project him to hurl a 195 innings, posting a 3.32 ERA and 3.39 FIP. With a good ERA, obviously comes good peripherals. Steamer projects Arrieta to have 192 strikeouts to 65 walks. This equates to a 4.1 WAR, good enough for second among Cubs pitchers. Put this along with ranking 4th best in FIP since 2015 among major league pitchers, expect Arrieta to make the bank. Using Ryan Tansey's WAR Calculator and the Steamer Projections, they say Arrieta will be worth $20.9 million. I'm gonna factor in his age and the market and say he gets something like 5/100 million.

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Wade Davis- RP

After trading Jorge Soler away to help clear an outfield logjam, the Cubs found their replacement for Aroldis Chapman. Wade Davis has been one of the most dominant relievers over a 3 year span in MLB history. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched from 2014-2016, Wade Davis for and away has the lowest ERA in the majors. But there is a reason for concern. After two DL stints last year due to forearm issues, his peripherals took a tumble. He lost half a strikeout on his K/9 and walked about one more hitter per nine innings. Steamer still projects Wade Davis to be a very good reliever next year, with a 2.76 ERA., along with a 1.2 WAR. The WAR calculator says Wade Davis will be worth about $6.4 million. I could see this going a lot of different ways though. If he spends time on the DL this year, his price could plummet. But, if he puts together another healthy, dominant season, judging the way the relieve market has gone, he could make good money. I'll say he gets something like 3/$36 million, though this could very easily change.

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John Lackey- SP

John Lackey has been a very reliable starting pitcher throughout his career. Steamer projects him to keep that up, projecting a 3.88 ERA. Lackey has his perks too. He has had good control throughout his career and has stayed pretty durable for the most part. He ranks 27th among active pitchers in career FIP. I'd expect Lackey's next contract to be his last at age 38. There is probably even a chance he retires too. But even at his age, Steamer still projects him for the 4th best WAR on a good Cubs pitching staff. The WAR calculator says he'll be worth $13 million. Obviously, I will take the under on this, as he is entering a good pitching market that includes names like Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Marco Estrada. With his age, I'll expect a contract around the likes of $2/12.

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Pedro Strop- RP

Pedro Strop has been a very serviceable reliever the past couple of years. In the past three years, Strop ranks 28 out of 163 qualified relievers in WAR. Also, noticeably, Strop ranks 15th in xFIP. Steamer projects Strop to post a good 2018, with a 2.89 ERA and 3.08 FIP. I could see Strop having a very nice season again this year, which could net him possibly elite money. He has been noticeably improving too, especially after lowering his Hard Hit % and LD%. The WAR Calculator says Strop is worth $4.8 million. I think I have to take the over on this. I really like Strop to have a good year as a setup man. I think a team could see him as a close, paying him some big bucks. I'll say he gets something like $3/36 million.

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Conclusion

I think the Cubs get two of these deals done. I think they let the aging Wade Davis and John Lackey go. I think that they probably get deals done with Pedro Strop and Jake Arrieta.

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