Bleed Cubbie Blue: All Posts by Naveen Nallappa

Cubs Weekly Recap: May 6 Through May 12

2013-05-13T16:00:08Z

The Cubs went 4-2 this week against a trio of very good teams. The team won a makeup game against the Rangers, split a two-game series against the Cardinals, and won two out of three in Washington against the Nationals. Unfortunately, the Cubs are still in last place, eight and a half games behind the Cardinals.

Runs Scored: 28 | Runs Scored per Game: 4.67 | Runs Allowed: 18 | Runs Allowed per Game: 3.00

Competition Adjusted Runs Scored: 1.28 | Competition Adjusted Runs Allowed: 0.78

The Cubs were 28% better than the average offense and 22% better than the average pitching staff. The offense played well considering that it went up against two of the best pitching staffs in the game in the Rangers and Cardinals staffs. The bullpen blew another game this week, but pitched well relative to the past month.

Cubs starters pitched 36⅔ of the 53 innings played this week, or 69% of the innings pitched, which is up from last week's 68%, and higher than last year's average of 60%.

The Three Most Important Plays
5/8 Bot 8, men at 1st and 3rd with one out, 5-4 Cardinals: Nate Schierholtz grounded into a double play against Randy Choate to end the Cubs scoring threat, resulting in a -.327 WPA. The Cubs had a 48.5% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 15.8% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

5/12 Top 9, men at 1st and 2nd with one out, 1-1 Tie: Alfonso Soriano scores on an error by Kurt Suzuki to give the Cubs the lead, resulting in a .309 WPA. The Cubs had a 58.2% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and an 89.1% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

5/7 Bot 4, man at 1st base with two outs, 1-0 Cardinals: Nate Schierholtz hits a home run off Lance Lynn, resulting in a .269 WPA. The Cubs had a 38.6% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 65.5% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

Most Valuable Cub Hitter

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo reached base nearly 50 percent of the time this week, and clubbed three more extra base hits bringing his season total to 19 extra base hits, which is good for second in the National League. After suffering from an anemic BABIP, Rizzo's numbers have begun to climb as his BABIP has risen to a more natural level. His BABIP currently stands at .323, which is slightly higher than last year's .310 mark.

Over nearly the first quarter of the season, Rizzo's .266 ISO and .393 wOBA are both well above his performance from last year. For reference, Joey Votto's wOBA currently sits at .400 -- Rizzo has almost been as good as Votto has at the plate this year. At this pace, ZiPS expects Rizzo to post a 3.7 WAR season, which would be a great sophomore season for the young first baseman.

Most Valuable Cub Pitcher

Scott Feldman: Feldman continued his streak of great starts. Not only did he limit the Rangers to two hits in seven innings, but he also surrendered only one earned run over the course of the thirteen innings he pitched overall last week. While a large amount of Feldman's early season successes (the games against Milwaukee and Miami) were a result of good luck, his past three outings suggest that he may be having more than just a few lucky starts. His 8.59 K/9 rate and 2.04 BB/9 rate are well above and below his career norms respectively. However, Feldman's extremely low BABIP -- now .206 -- will continue to be a concern.

Least Valuable Cub Hitter

Welington Castillo: Since his 2 for 4 performance on May 2 against the Padres, Castillo has recorded three singles in 25 at-bats. To make matters worse, Castillo's struggles with runners in scoring position continued. Not only does he sport a .268 wOBA with runners in scoring position, but he also struggles with situational hitting: Castillo, yet again, failed to bring in a runner from third with less than two outs by popping out in the ninth inning of Sunday's game.

Least Valuable Cub Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija: Samardzija pitched arguably his worst game of the season this past week, surrendering five earned runs in five innings. This would have been somewhat understandable had he been facing a quality offensive team, but the Nationals rank 26th in runs scored this year and were without Bryce Harper on that day. That said, Samardzija was a little unlucky as a high number of balls in play fell in for hits.

Despite his poor start and his recent pitch count struggles, Samardzija's 3.70/3.30/3.21 ERA/FIP/xFIP line thus far this season is better than the one (3.81/3.55/3.38 ERA/FIP/xFIP) he posted last season. Furthermore, he's inducing ground balls at a career-high 50% rate and striking out batters at a career-high 27.7% rate. Finally, the latest ZiPS projection expects Samardzija to post a 3.9 WAR season, which would be significantly better than the 2.9 WAR season he posted last year.

Up Next
The Cubs head home to play two three-game series: one against the Rockies, followed by another against the Mets.

Cubs Weekly Recap: April 29 Through May 5

2013-05-06T17:18:14Z

The Cubs went 2-5 in the week just completed. The team split a four-game series against the Padres and was swept by the Reds. After the first month of the season, the Cubs find themselves in last place, nine games behind the Cardinals.

Runs Scored: 33 | Runs Scored per Game: 4.71 | Runs Allowed: 41 | Runs Allowed per Game: 5.86

Competition Adjusted Runs Scored: 1.13 | Competition Adjusted Runs Allowed: 1.46

The Cubs were 13% better than the average offense and 46% worse than the average pitching staff. The offense continued to struggle with runners on base, but still managed to score nearly five runs a game. The bullpen and Edwin Jackson continued their early season struggles. The bullpen blew multiple leads while Jackson surrendered twelve earned runs in his two starts this week.

Cubs starters pitched 43 of the 63 innings played this week, or 68% of the innings pitched, which is down from last week's 69%, and higher than last year's average of 60%.

The Three Most Important Plays
5/2 Top 8, men at 1st and 2nd with two outs, 2-2 Tie: Everth Cabrera singles off James Russell to give the Padres the lead, resulting in a -.269 WPA. The Cubs had a 51.5% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 24.6% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

5/3 Bot 9, bases loaded with two outs, 6-5 Reds: Darwin Barney strikes out against J.J. Hoover, resulting in a -.268 WPA. The Cubs had a 26.8% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 0.0% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

5/2 Bot 7, man at 1st with no outs, 0-0 Tie: Scott Hairston hits a home run off Eric Stults, resulting in a .250 WPA. The Cubs had a 64.3% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and an 89.3% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

Most Valuable Cub Hitter

Alfonso Soriano: Soriano put together his best stretch of games of the young season over this past week. Prior to this week, Soriano was sporting a .247/.278/.323 line and an OPS of .600, which is well below his career-worst mark of .726 that he posted in 2009.

That said, there were a number of positive signs: his strikeout rate has fallen to 17.4% after remaining stubbornly above 20% -- reaching 24.9% last year -- for his entire tenure with the Cubs. As of today, his contact rate sits at 79.9% which is well above his contact rate of 71.7% from last year, and above his career 74.1% rate. Furthermore, his line is now a much healthier .276/.306/.414. While it's a far cry from last year's .262/.322/.499 line, there are a number of positive underlying signs that indicate that Soriano may not be in as much trouble as it looked like he might be.

Most Valuable Cub Pitcher

Scott Feldman: Feldman put together a masterpiece against the Padres by throwing a complete game, striking out twelve batters, and allowing only three hits and one walk. Feldman made two sub-par pitches that cost him -- a couple of two-seamers that caught too much of the plate -- but worked around a couple of late solo home runs to throw the first complete game of his career.

After a couple of awful starts to start the season against the Braves and the Giants, Feldman has settled in and pitched much better. Over his last three starts -- against the Brewers, Marlins, and Padres -- Feldman has surrendered five earned runs in 20⅔ innings, recording 20 strikeouts against only six walks.

That said, Feldman's benefitting from a .230 BABIP, which is well below his career rate of .294. As that BABIP rises, Feldman's overall performance will likely worsen. However, his 17.2% HR/FB rate should regress to his career average of 10.6%, and partially offset his rising BABIP. The confluence of these two factors should result in something close to a 4.00 ERA pitcher who can serve as an innings eater.

Least Valuable Cub Hitter

Dave Sappelt: While he was only given 48 plate appearances, Sappelt performed so poorly to start the season that the Cubs have already decided to option him to Triple-A, effective Monday. In the past, Sappelt's above-average fielding compensated for his weak bat, but even that took a turn for the worse this year as he supplemented his .178/.229/.222 line with a negative fielding rating.

Least Valuable Cub Pitchers

Hector Rondon, Shawn Camp, Carlos Marmol: Over the span of 8⅓ innings this past week, the trio surrendered 11 earned runs, blowing multiple games in the process. Combined, the three have twelve meltdowns -- an instance in which a relief pitcher comes in and makes his team more likely to lose -- and only eight shut downs -- an instance in which a relief pitcher comes in and improves his team's chances of winning the game.¹ Marmol and Camp's struggles have left Sveum with only two relatively consistent options in the bullpen: Russell and Gregg, of which only Russell is proven.

Up Next
The Cubs wrap up the home stand with a makeup game against the Rangers and a two-game series against the Cardinals. The Cubs then head to the nation's capital to play a three-game set with the Nationals.

¹Shutdowns and Meltdowns

Cubs Weekly Recap: April 22 Through April 28

2013-04-29T18:30:05Z

The Cubs went 4-3 last week -- the team's first winning week. The team lost two of three against the Reds and won three of four against the Marlins in Miami. After the first three weeks of the season, the Cubs find themselves in last place, 5½ games behind the Pirates.

Runs Scored: 23 | Runs Scored per Game: 3.29 | Runs Allowed: 21 | Runs Allowed per Game: 3.00

Competition Adjusted Runs Scored: 0.80 | Competition Adjusted Runs Allowed: 1.03

The Cubs were 20% worse than the average offense and 1% worse than the average pitching staff. The offense continued to struggle, scoring only fifteen runs against one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. The pitching staff continued to perform well, yielding only eight runs to one of the best offenses in the majors.

Cubs starters pitched 45⅓ of the 65⅔ innings played this week, or 69% of the innings pitched, which is down from last week's 77%, but higher than last year's average of 60%.

The Three Most Important Plays
4/25 Top 9, bases empty with two outs, 3-3 Tie: Luis Valbuena hits a home run off Steve Cishek, resulting in a .419 WPA. The Cubs had a 17.9% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 59.8% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

4/22 Bot 13, men at 2nd and 3rd with one out, 4-2 Cubs: Jay Bruce hits a double off Michael Bowden to tie the game, resulting in a -.416 WPA. The Cubs had a 69.2% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 27.6% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

4/23 Top 10, bases empty with one out, 2-2 Tie: Darwin Barney hits a home run off Manny Parra, resulting in a .388 WPA. The Cubs had a 16.8% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 55.6% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

Most Valuable Cub Hitter

Luis Valbuena: Valbuena hit a couple of huge home runs this week: a two-run home run in the top of the 13th against the Reds and a solo game-winning home run in the top of the 9th against the Marlins. In 19 games this season, Valbuena has posted a .254/.347/.492 line with a .357 wOBA and a 126 wRC+. Valbuena's great start has almost made the return of Ian Stewart inconsequential.

Most Valuable Cub Pitcher

Travis Wood: Wood threw very well against a potent Reds lineup and somewhat well against an anemic Marlins lineup, surrendering only four earned runs in 12⅓ innings. Last week, I mentioned Wood's unsustainably low 0.0% HR/FB rate -- this week, Wood surrendered three home runs. That said, Wood did a great job of limiting the damage by giving up all three of those homers with no one on base.

Wood is not going to continue to pitch at a 2.25 ERA-level -- he's sporting a sub-.200 BABIP, and an abnormally high 82.7% LOB%. Both of these numbers will likely revert to the mean over the course of the rest of the season, and while that means Wood won't be nearly as good as he has been, he could still be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher and a good back-of-the rotation starter for the next several years.

Least Valuable Cub Hitter

Alfonso Soriano: Soriano has compiled nearly 100 at-bats this season and has floundered at the plate. He has a .258/.290/.337 line with a 72 wRC+, and looks like he's back to his pre-2012 self. If Soriano's 2012 season was just an anomaly, then the team may no longer have a legitimate shot at trading him before the expiration of his contract. According to ZiPS, Soriano is projected to post 0.4 WAR this season, which would make him entirely undesirable for any teams looking for outfield help.

Least Valuable Cub Pitcher

Michael Bowden: Bowden blew a two-run lead in the bottom of the 13th against the Reds. According to PITCHf/x, Bowden's fastball velocity has fallen 1.6 mph to 89.7 mph, and his change-up velocity has fallen 1.5 mph to 82.9 mph. Bowden isn't going to strike many hitters out and needs to hit his spots if he is to get hitters out. When he misses, Bowden is susceptible to getting hit hard, and that's exactly what happened in the bottom of the 13th against the Reds: Bowden surrendered two singles and two doubles, in a span of six batters, five of whom hit line drives.

Up Next
The Cubs head back home for a four-game series against the Padres and a three-game set against the Reds.

Cubs Weekly Recap: April 15 Through April 21

2013-04-22T17:00:08Z

The Cubs went 1-4 this past week. The team split the two games that it had against the Rangers and was swept by the Brewers in Milwaukee. After the first three weeks of the season, the Cubs find themselves in last place, 4½ games behind the first-place Reds.

Runs Scored: 15 | Runs Scored per Game: 3.00 | Runs Allowed: 20 | Runs Allowed per Game: 4.00

Competition Adjusted Runs Scored: 0.86 | Competition Adjusted Runs Allowed: 1.03

The Cubs were 14% worse than the average offense and 3% worse than the average pitching staff. The offense was back to performing poorly, though it did have to face one of the better pitching staffs in the game. The pitching staff on the other hand fared much better this week. If it weren't for a few errors, Cubs pitchers may have allowed many fewer runs. According to FanGraphs' WAR, the Cubs pitching staff is tied with the Braves for ninth best in the majors.

Cubs starters pitched 32⅓ of the 42 innings played this week, or 77% of the innings pitched. That's up from last week's 64%, and considerably above last year's average of 60%. So at least one part of the team is doing well.

The Three Most Important Plays
4/21 Bot 5, men at 1st and 3rd with two outs, 2-1 Cubs: Ryan Braun hits a home run off Scott Feldman to give the Brewers the lead, resulting in a -.350 WPA. The Cubs had a 57.5% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 22.5% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

4/21 Top 3, man on 1st base with two outs, 0-0 Tie: Anthony Rizzo hits a home run off Wily Peralta, resulting in a .199 WPA. The Cubs had a 46.9% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 66.8% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

4/16 Bot 9, bases loaded with two outs, 4-2 Rangers: Darwin Barney flies out off Joe Nathan, resulting in a -.171 WPA. The Cubs had a 17.1% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 0.0% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

Most Valuable Cub Hitter

Anthony Rizzo: Struggling as a result of his .167 BABIP, Rizzo showed some positive signs this week by clubbing three home runs. Six of Rizzo's 13 hits on the young season have been home runs. Despite his extremely depressed BABIP, Rizzo has been able to hit to the tune of a 111 wRC+, which means that he is 11% better than the average offensive player. For comparison's sake, Rizzo posted a 116 wRC+ last season. As Rizzo's BABIP reverts to the mean -- Rizzo has a career .275 BABIP -- his numbers should start to climb.

Most Valuable Cub Pitchers

Travis Wood: Wood threw very well against the Rangers, surrendering only two runs in 7⅓ innings against a competent Rangers lineup. Thus far, Wood has pitched 19⅔ innings and has given up four earned runs. While this is partially a result of his abnormally low 0.0% HR/FB rate, it is also a result of his low .232 BABIP. As both of these rates revert to the mean -- career .271 BABIP and 8.6% HR/FB rate -- Wood should see his ERA rise.

That said, Wood, just like Villanueva, has induced a greater percentage of ground balls: 38.9% thus far versus his career rate of 32.9%. If Wood can continue to induce ground balls and keep his BABIP relatively low -- Wood did post a .244 BABIP last year -- he could also solidify his position as a good back-of-the-rotation starter.

Carlos Villanueva: Villanueva turned in another great performance in his third start of the season, throwing seven innings and only surrendering two runs against a competent Rangers lineup. Thus far, Villanueva has pitched 21 innings and has surrendered just three earned runs. While this is likely a result of Villanueva's low BABIP of .189 -- he has a career .275 BABIP -- he has also allowed a relatively high HR/FB rate of 18.8% -- he has a career 12.2% HR/FB. Villanueva's BABIP will likely rise and consequently result in a higher ERA, but his HR/FB rate should fall and negate some of the adverse effects of the BABIP's reversion to the mean.

Furthermore, one positive sign is Villanueva's ground ball rate of 49.1%, which is by far a career-high for him. If Villanueva continues to induce ground balls at this rate, he should serve as a great back-of-the-rotation starter.

Least Valuable Cub Hitter

Darwin Barney: While Barney has never been known for his bat, he has struggled mightily since his return to the field. Aside from his one single and two walks, Barney produced no offensive value this past week. He struck out five times, three of which were of the looking variety. In 156 games last year, Barney only struck out 58 times. That said, Barney's struggles should not be that concerning just yet -- he may need a few more games to get back to game shape.

Least Valuable Cub Pitcher

Scott Feldman: While Feldman's line looks good, the error that he made prior to the Braun home run ended up being very costly. Had Feldman thrown out Jean Segura on an comebacker, the Cubs would have remained in the lead. Instead, he botched the play and then served up that decisive three-run home run to Braun. While Feldman pitched much better than he did in his first two starts, his fielding error and hanging breaking ball cost him dearly this week.

Up Next
The Cubs travel to Cincinnati to play a three-game series against the Reds and then to Miami to play a four-game setagainst the Marlins.

Cubs Weekly Recap: April 8 Through April 14

2013-04-16T19:30:05Z

The Cubs went 2-4 last week, but could have done significantly better if the bullpen had been able to close out a couple of games. The team split the two games against the Brewers and lost three of four to the Giants. After the first two weeks of the season, the Cubs find themselves in fourth place, trailing the division-leading Cardinals by three and a half games.

Runs Scored: 29 | Runs Scored per Game: 4.83 | Runs Allowed: 33 | Runs Allowed per Game: 5.50

Competition Adjusted Runs Scored: 1.06 | Competition Adjusted Runs Allowed: 1.33

The Cubs were 6% better than the average offense and 33% worse than the average pitching staff. However, this is all based on a small sample size, and can thus be quite skewed. The offense looked much better this week, scoring runs against one of the better pitching staffs in the game. The pitching staff on the other hand fared much worse this week. Between Jackson's rough starts and the bullpen's continued struggles, the Cubs staff surrendered over five runs per game. Cubs starters pitched 35⅓ of the 55 innings played this week, or 64% of the innings pitched, which is down from last week's 72%, but still higher than last year's average of 60%.

The Three Most Important Plays
4/12 Top 9, men at 1st and 3rd with two outs, 2-1 Cubs: Brandon Belt hits a double off Kyuji Fujikawa to give the Giants the lead, resulting in a -.672 WPA. The Cubs had a 83.9% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 16.7% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

4/12 Bot 9, bases empty with no outs, 3-2 Giants: Dioner Navarro hits a pinch-hit game-tying home run off Sergio Romo, resulting in a .440 WPA. The Cubs had a 19.4% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 63.4% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

4/12 Bot 9, man at 1st base with two outs, 3-3 Tie: Starlin Castro hits a game-winning double off Sergio Romo, resulting in a .438 WPA. The Cubs had a 56.2% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 100.0% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

Most Valuable Cub Hitters

David DeJesus: After a slow start to his season, DeJesus looked much better this week. He worked deep counts and hit the ball with much more authority than he did during the first week of the season. DeJesus reached base in nearly half of his at bats this week while also collecting several extra-base hits.

Dioner Navarro: Navarro hit pinch-hit home runs -- one from each side of the plate -- in consecutive games, the first of which tied the game in the bottom of the ninth after Kyuji Fujikawa blew the save. That first home run prevented the Cubs from blowing two consecutive games in which they had sizable or late-game leads.

Starlin Castro: Castro had the huge game-winning hit off Romo on Friday, one day after striking out against Romo on a slider well off the plate. Besides that, Castro had a very productive week at the plate, collecting eleven hits in six games, six of which went for extra bases.

Nate Schierholtz: Schierholtz has been fantastic over the first two weeks of the season, and is currently sporting a .343/.410/.629 line for a team-best 1.039 OPS and .438 wOBA. He has had a number of timely hits: hitting a double off John Axford on Tuesday to start the game-winning 8th inning rally and a home run off Tim Lincecum in the first inning of Sunday's game to give the Cubs the early 4-1 lead.

Most Valuable Cub Pitcher

Carlos Villanueva: Though he is officially the Cubs' No. 5 starter, Villanueva has pitched as if he is a top-of-the-rotation stater in his first two outings of the season. After throwing 6⅔ innings of one-run ball against the Braves in Atlanta -- thus far the best offensive team in baseball -- Villanueva followed it up with 7⅓ innings of shutout baseball against the Giants on Friday, outpitching Matt Cain in the process. Villanueva has only surrendered one earned run in fourteen innings of work and has a 0.64/3.53/3.79 ERA/FIP/xFIP line.

Least Valuable Cub Hitter

Welington Castillo: By simply looking at the numbers, we could conclude that Castillo had a good offensive week: he clubbed a home run and posted an OPS near .900. However, Castillo had a couple of chances to score runners from third with less than two outs on Saturday and failed to do so both times. He struck out against Bumgarner in the second inning with runners at second and third and no one out and then followed that up with a double play against Santiago Casilla in the eighth inning with the bases loaded and one out. If Castillo had hit a fly ball in either situation, the game could have turned out differently. Instead, the Cubs ended up losing the game by one run.

Least Valuable Cub Pitchers

Kyuji Fujikawa: After posting a couple of good appearances against the Pirates, Fujikawa has struggled mightily to get hitters out. In his three appearances since the Pirates series, Fujikawa has surrendered eight hits and six earned runs in three innings of work. During one of the games, Jim Deshaies mentioned Fujikwawa's control issues: in his two appearances this week, Fujikawa threw 28 strikes and 24 balls, which is good for a 54% strike rate. Let's hope that his struggles were injury-related.

Shawn Camp: After posting a good season with the Cubs last year, Camp has struggled recently. In his three appearances this week, Camp surrendered eight hits and six earned runs, blowing a save and recording a loss in Sunday's game against the Giants. Without a repeat of Camp's successful 2012 campaign, the Cubs are essentially left with one consistent and reliable reliever: James Russell.

Up Next
Beginning Tuesday, the Cubs play three games against the Rangers at Wrigley and Friday, they start a 10-game road trip by visiting the Brewers for a three-game set at Miller Park.

Cubs Weekly Recap: April 1 Through April 7

2013-04-08T14:30:07Z

This is the second season of weekly recaps here on Bleed Cubbie Blue. The structure remains largely the same, but please let me know in the comments if you have any suggestions or requests. With that out of the way, here's your first weekly recap of the 2013 season.

The Cubs went 2-4 in the season's first week. The team won two of three against the Pirates and was swept by the Braves in Atlanta. After the first week of the season, the Cubs are right in the middle of the pack in the NL Central, trailing the division-leading Reds by two games.

Runs Scored: 13 | Runs Scored per Game: 2.17 | Runs Allowed: 21 | Runs Allowed per Game: 3.5

Competition Adjusted Runs Scored: 0.81 | Competition Adjusted Runs Allowed: 1.24

The Cubs were 19 percent worse than the average offense and 24 percent worse than the average pitching staff. However, this is all based on a very small sample size, and is thus somewhat unhelpful this early in the season. While the offense showed some signs of life on Saturday, it wasn't able to muster up much in the five other games -- aside from Saturday's five-run outburst, the Cubs scored an average of 1.6 runs per game this past week. The pitching staff on the other hand fared much better than the competition adjusted runs allowed figure indicates. While it did have its own issues -- Marmol's shaky ninth innings and Fujikawa's eighth inning on Saturday -- the starters pitched well and the bullpen threw a few strong innings. Cubs starters pitched 36 of the 50⅓ innings played this week, or 72% of the innings pitched, which is significantly higher than last year's average of around 60%.

The Three Most Important Plays

4/6 Bot 9, bases empty with no outs, 5-4 Cubs: B.J. Upton hits a solo home run off Carlos Marmol to tie the game, resulting in a -.443 WPA. The Cubs had a 81.3% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 37.0% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

4/6 Bot 9, bases empty with no outs, 5-5 Tie: Justin Upton hits a solo home run off Carlos Marmol to give the Braves the win, resulting in a -.425 WPA. The Cubs had a 42.5% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and a 0.0% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

4/7 Bot 6, bases loaded with 1 out, 1-1 Tie: Ramiro Pena singles off Jeff Samardzija to give the Braves the lead, resulting in a -.254 WPA. The Cubs had a 39.7% chance of winning the game prior to his at bat, and an 14.3% chance of winning the game after his at bat.

Most Valuable Cub Hitter

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo crushed the first pitch of his season 445 feet for a two-run home run on Monday. That currently qualifies for the sixth furthest hit home run of the season by anyone. He followed that up with another home run against the Braves on Saturday. Both the ZiPS and Steamer projection systems expect Rizzo to be a 4 WAR player this year, which would be quite a season for the 23-year-old first baseman.

Most Valuable Cub Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija: Samardzija twirled a gem against the Pirates on Opening Day. He threw eight shutout innings, surrendering only two hits and a walk in the process, while striking out nine Pirates hitters. In Sunday's start against the Braves, Samardzija looked dominant early on, striking out ten in the first four innings. Unfortunately, walks, a high pitch count, and a couple of ill-timed hits were his undoing. Nonetheless, Samardzija struck out 13 Braves hitters in 5⅔ innings of work. In other words, of the 17 outs that he recorded, 13 of them were via the strikeout. If he continues to miss bats, Samardzija may end the season as one of the best pitchers in the National League.

Least Valuable Cub Hitter

Brent Lillibridge: Lillibridge has yet to collect a hit on the young season, and has not looked good at the plate. We should see less of LIllibridge once Darwin Barney works his way back into the lineup.

Least Valuable Cub Pitcher

Carlos Marmol: Marmol has pitched in three games this year and has surrendered runs in each of his outings. After being unable to close out the game on Monday, Marmol almost blew the save on Thursday, and then did blow the save on Saturday.

While it's a wonder he was even in the game on Saturday, it's a great sign that Sveum has finally had enough of Marmol as a closer. However, moving Kyuji Fujikawa to the closer's role now leaves the team with one fewer capable arm to bridge that gap between the starters and the closer. Furthermore, Sveum can no longer use Fujikawa in high leverage situations because he now has to save him for the end of the game. It will be interesting to see how Sveum uses Marmol, though it looks like he will try and place Marmol in "less stressful" situations.

That's it for this past week. The Cubs are at Wrigley Field this week to host the Brewers and the Giants in the first homestand of the year, which will continue next week with the Rangers visiting Wrigley. Go Cubs!

Statistical Profile: Cubs Starter Edwin Jackson

2013-04-03T16:00:13Z

At 29, Edwin Jackson has already played for seven major league teams during his 10-year career. After ranking highly in Baseball America's Top-100 prospect lists for a couple of seasons (No. 4 in 2003 and No. 30 in 2004), Jackson had a couple of middling seasons with the Dodgers before playing for the Rays, Tigers, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Cardinals, and Nationals. Theo and Jed signed Jackson to his first significant long-term contract -- a four-year, $52 million agreement -- this past January.

Over the past few years, Jackson has consistently posted average (18.5 K%) to above-average (20.0 K%) strikeout rates. Furthermore, Jackson's swinging-strike rate has also been above average (8.5 SwStr%) over the past several seasons.¹ In fact, Jackson posted career-highs in K% (21.3 K%) and SwStr% (12.2 SwStr%) last year with the Nationals.

While it's difficult to identify the cause behind last year's spike in K% and SwStr%, the most notable change in Jackson's repertoire is his reduced dependency on his slider. According to PITCHf/x, Jackson's slider usage fell from nearly 43% in 2011 to 29% in 2012. The effectiveness of Jackson's slider rose in conjunction with the decline in usage: Jackson's wSL/C rose from .63 in 2011 to 1.02 in 2012. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Jackson's slider was the 18th most effective in baseball. His slider usage and effectiveness seem to be a key determinant of his strikeout successes.

Jackson has simultaneously cut down his walk rate to a much more respectable level. After posting walk rates close to and north of north of 10% for a few years, Jackson has been between average (8.5 BB%) and above-average (7.0 BB%) over the past four years.²

Jackson's BABIP is likely due for some regression to the mean over the next couple of years. He sported a .278 BABIP in 2012, which is well below his career .306 BABIP. Fortunately, Jackson's HR/FB should also regress after the extreme 11.7 HR/FB% that he posted in 2012. However, Jackson has had an issue with the long ball as his HR/FB% has been between average (9.5 HR/FB%) and well below-average (11.5 HR/FB%) over the past several seasons.³ Whenever we discuss home run rates, Wrigley's size becomes a concern. Last year, Nationals Park (1.044 HR park factor) was more homer-friendly than Wrigley (.962 HR park factor). We can also look at a hit chart that takes balls hit against Jackson in Nationals Park and overlays them onto Wrigley Field.

All things being equal, there are a number of doubles, triples, and fly outs that would have likely left Wrigley. While this is a concern, there are a number of other factors that may mitigate these issues: wind patterns and temperature being the two primary ones. The winds and temperatures of April and May should help Jackson keep the ball in the yard, while those of June, July, and August will be a little less helpful. Taking the park factors, hit charts, and external factors into consideration, the likely net result is that Jackson surrenders about the same number of home runs at Wrigley Field that he did in Nationals Park without taking regression to the mean into consideration.

Finally, there are a couple more noteworthy points to discuss regarding Jackson's durability and velocity. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2007, Jackson has started between 31 and 33 games each season, which is good for ninth-most during that time span, putting him ahead of pitchers such as Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, and Roy Halladay.⁴ However, the high usage could have taken a toll on Jackson's arm, which is what indeed may have happened. According to PITCHf/x, his fastball velocity fell to 93.4 miles per hour last year, which is well below the 95.0 miles per hour he was throwing in 2007 and even the 94.5 miles per hour he averaged between 2008 and 2011.

While the Cubs have made a pretty large commitment to Jackson, the price that they will end up paying could wind up a bargain. Since the contract will cover Jackson's age 29 through 32 seasons, we should expect some skill degradation. The surplus value of the contract is dependent on how exactly we think Jackson will age. ZiPS has projected a 3.3 WAR season for Jackson in 2012. If we use this as our baseline and dock a half a win per year -- a conservative estimate, but one that may be justified by Jackson's past workload and recent velocity decrease -- the Cubs will come out about even on the contract.

While Jackson may no longer be of the quality to be a member of a championship-caliber pitching staff by the time 2015 and 2016 roll around, he will give the Cubs quality innings and contribute to a team that may have an outside chance of making the playoffs over the next couple of years. You'll see him in his first regular-season start for the Cubs Wednesday night in Pittsburgh.

^1,2Strikeout and Walk Rate Stats

³Home Run Rate Stats

⁴Games Started Leaders

Sabermetrics 101: Position Player WAR (Part II of II)

2013-01-14T19:00:11Z

As I mentioned in the first part of this Wins Above Replacement series, I will be walking through the calculation of a specific player's WAR in this post. I'll use David DeJesus as an example. I will mirror the format of the aforementioned WAR post in order to make the following calculations easy to follow.

Batting
First, we need to convert DeJesus' wOBA to wRAA. To do that, we simply use the following formula:

wRAA = ((wOBA - lgwOBA)/Scale) * PA

wRAA = ((.332 - .315)/1.15) * 582

wRAA = 8.6 runs

DeJesus' wRAA, unadjusted for the ballparks that he played in, was 8.6 runs.* Therefore, DeJesus' batting was worth 8.6 runs.

Fielding
DeJesus played all three outfield positions in 2012. He primarily played in right field, (86 total games, 74 starts), with somewhat fewer starts in center field, (50 games, 36 starts), and a few starts in left field, (three games, two starts). DeJesus' UZR in right was -4.5, his UZR in center was -1.3, and his UZR in left was 0.9; we just add the three UZRs to get the runs DeJesus was worth in the field. Therefore, DeJesus' fielding was worth -4.9 runs.

Defensive Position (or Positional Adjustment)
DeJesus played the equivalent of 85 full games in right field, 37 games in center field, and two games in left field. His positional adjustment is calculated below:

Positional Adjustment = (+2.5 * 37/162) + (-7.5 * 2/162) + (-7.5 * 85/162)

Positional Adjustment = (.57) + (-.09) + (-3.94)

Positional Adjustment = -3.5

Therefore, DeJesus' positional adjustment was worth -3.5 runs.

Replacement Level Adjustment
We need to credit DeJesus for how frequently he played in 2012. The replacement level calculation is as follows:

Replacement Level Adjustment = (20/600 *PA)

Replacement Level Adjustment = (20/600 * 582)

Replacement Level Adjustment = 19.4 runs

Therefore, DeJesus' replacement level adjustment was worth 19.4 runs.

The Rest
We now add the runs above average from each of the four components that we evaluated: Batting, Fielding, Defensive Position, and Replacement Level Adjustment. Below is a chart that summarizes DeJesus' component run values calculated by both us and FanGraphs:

As you can see, DeJesus was worth 19.6 runs above average in 2012. After converting these runs to wins using the 10 runs to one win ratio, we find that DeJesus was worth 2.0 WAR.

In actuality, FanGraphs has DeJesus at 1.7 WAR. As we can see in the chart above, the key differences in the numbers stem from the fact that: (i) FanGraphs gave DeJesus 6.0 runs in his batting component, which is lower because it likely accounts for the better than average ballpark conditions that DeJesus played in, (ii) FanGraphs now calculates a baserunning component of WAR in which DeJesus put up a negative score, and (iii) FanGraphs used a slightly different runs-to-win ratio. Once we account for baserunning (-.1 WAR), and the ballpark adjustment (-.2 WAR), we get 1.7 WAR.

Despite some inconsistencies, our hand calculated WAR of 2.0 was very close to DeJesus' actual WAR of 1.7. With the inclusion of the baserunning component*, the addition of a ballpark adjustment on the batting component, and a more accurate runs to win ratio, we could perfectly calculate WAR.

* An aside: When I have some time, I'll try and figure out how to calculate the ballpark adjustment and the baserunning score. If I do, I'll update these posts. In the meantime, if anyone else knows where to find an explanation for either of these, then please mention it below.