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Should we bring back our juiced OF?

The title is intentionall misleading... i'm not talking about Sammy Sosa. I'm talking about Matt Lawton. Read on for the reasoning...

Star-divide

I, like most other cubs fans, would like to see the Cubs sign two top of the order hitters this offseason. Hopefully, the Cubs will sign Rafael Furcal and take care of one of those slots. Either way, they should fill one of those slots through an OF acquisition. The other options that have been discussed at BCB for top of the order OFs are Kenny Lofton, Juan Pierre, Milton Bradley and Joey Gathright. For comparisons's sake, here are some career statistincs for the 4 of them and Lawton, without names attached to the stat lines (BA/OBP/SLG/SB%)

OF A: .299/.373/.425/79.3
OF B: .271/.316/.322/81.2
OF C: .267/.368/.418/71.4
OF D: .305/.355/.375/73.6
OF E: .269/.350/.426/65.9

Looking at these statitics alone, it appears that OF A gets on base the best, OF B is the best basestealer but has by far lowest OBP, and OF E has the most power and is the worst basestealer. OFs B and D show a dearth of power, and player B should be avoided at all costs, as his high SB% is sure to cement his low OBP at the top of any lineup Dusty has control over. OFs A and C are the two best all-around offensive players with OF A being the best. The next best on-base rate, and in my opionion, the next best all-around offensive player, is OF C. He gets on base at a great clip, hits for decent power, and is a much better base stealer than the next best player, OF E. Furthermore, since he has the lowest career average, he is likely to be undervalued as a lead-off hitter due to the overestimated importance of this statistic. If OF C were unavailable, i would pursue OF E, but only if we secured a "prototypical lead off hitter" elsewhere, as his low SB% will likely prevent him from leading off on a Dusty Baker lineup card. Player D would be a serviceable option, but he would be my fourth choice, ahead of only option B, which should be looked at as a last resort.

Here are the OF identities:
OF A: Kenny Lofton
OF B: Joey Gathright
OF C: Matt Lawton
OF D: Juan Pierre
OF E: Milton Bradley

As i said above, based on career offensive statistics, Lofton is the best option. However, his age (38) is a concern to me. He hasn't played more than 110 games since 2001, and i think we'd have to put him into a platoon with a right-handed hitter to get good value out of him. If we end up trading for Kevin Mench, and want to go with a Mench/Lofton platoon, i'm extremely happy. However, this scenario is unlikely, since i doubt we'll acquire Mench, Lofton, and yet another veteran OF (Pie could be the other OF, but he won't be up until after the All-star break, and he's also a lefty so he couldn't be platooned with Lofton). If we don't sign Lofton, it, it appears that Lawton might be the best option. I think he would come cheap - a contract similar to what we'll end up paying Pierre or Bradley would probably convince him to come here, and we wouldn't have to give up any players to acquire him. Yes, i know he hit poorly in his short stint with the Cubs, posting #'s of .244/.289/.308/100%(1-for-1 in SBs), and i also know he is suspended for the first 10 games of next season. However, he tends to hit extremely well before the All-Star break, posting pre All-star break splits of .279/.376/.445/68.2% over his career. After the All-star break we'll hopefully need him less after Pie gets called up. One other note against Latwon is actually one in favor of Bradley: Bradley has performed consistently above his career line the last 3 years, posting a line of .290/.379/.463/66.7% over that span - well above the line posted by any of the options. I only want Bradley if we can get Furcal, as Bradley probably won't leadoff for Dusty and we'd still be without a leadoff hitter. And even then he has more serious baggage than Lawton does - he has had a maligned history that has been much discussed on BCB, just look at the diary posted below this one, for example.

There seem to be questions with all these OFs: Can Lofton produce for a full season despite his age? Can Gathright learn plate discipline? Accordingly, do we want to risk finding out if our young lead-off CF can learn plate discipline? Again? Can Lawton stay off the juice and overcome his annual late-season swoon? Can Pierre ever hit anything other than a seeing-eye single? Can Bradley overcome his emotional baggage and not be a threat to clubhouse chemistry (not to mention his playing time)?

The point is that the questions surrounding Lawton aren't any more serious than the other options in my opinion, and therefore i think he should at least warrant consieration. Thoughts?

Poll
Which of these OFs do you want the Cubs to acquire?
Kenny Lofton
9 votes
Joey Gathright
4 votes
Matt Lawton
1 votes
Juan Pierre
16 votes
Milton Bradley
29 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

Comment 18 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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DOH!
I put Lofton twice in the poll! I tried to change this but can't. Anywho, if you read this before you vote and want to vote for Bradley, make the second Lofton count as a vote for Brdaley. Sorry...
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five... or sometime thereafter!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 1:21 PM CST reply actions  

Shawn...
... I fixed it. Should read correctly now.

by Al Yellon on Nov 28, 2005 1:23 PM CST reply actions  

whew...
thanks!
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five... or sometime thereafter!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 2:53 PM CST up reply actions  

About Lawton...
... I don't really want him back anyway, as he is aging, his numbers are declining, and further, as a steroid user (yes, I know he apologized, and in fact was pretty forthright about it) -- he's suspended for the first ten games of the season. Why put yourself in a hole like that?

by Al Yellon on Nov 28, 2005 1:24 PM CST reply actions  

Further...
... the steroids call into question what his actual abilities are and how he'll perform absent them.

DmL

by dmlichte on Nov 28, 2005 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

i agree somewhat...
First, i'm very suspicious of Lawton, as he is someone who has tested positive for steroids, and has a huge difference in his pre All-star and post All-star production. This is what one would expect of a player who took steroids in the offseason to avoid detection and whose power waned as the season progressed and the advantad lessened. However, my point isn't that he's a perfect fit for the Cubs. Rather, i'm just trying to make the point that his negatives/question marks aren't that much more serious than the other possibilities.

Al, out of curiosity, who did you vote for?

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five... or sometime thereafter!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 2:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Hey!
I thought this was a secret ballot!

by Al Yellon on Nov 28, 2005 3:06 PM CST up reply actions  

also...
i'm not set on Lawton. The thought just crossed my mind this morning that he was available, and i though it would make for interesting discussion... If we acquired any of the 4 above (not Gathright!), i'd be happy.
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five... or sometime thereafter!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 2:59 PM CST up reply actions  

why the dissing of Gathright?
Do you know anything about him?  Have you looked up his very good minor league track record?  Do you know he's the fastest man in basbeall?  Do you know he'd cost $335K/year?  There's a lot to like with him.

He'd be my number 2 (tied with Lofton), but behind Bradley.  I'd say no way to Lawton before saying the same about Gathright.

by socalbob on Nov 28, 2005 3:20 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm with ya...
I would put Gathright before Lawton and after Bradley(who I voted for).  Lawton didn't do anything to help the Cubs.  He disappointed me a lot.  And he's a steroid user and he can't play the first ten days, etc.  

Gathright has been great in the minors as socalbob says.  He is very similar to Juan Pierre, and another guy that I just thought of is Willy Taveras.  Only difference is Taveras has a little more power than Pierre and Gathright and hit for a lower average in the minors.  

From what I have read, Gathright actually has good plate discipline, and when I was looking for info on him I found this from the hardball times,  but it's pretty old(from April):

"Before being sent back down to Triple-A to make room for Alex Sanchez (seriously), Tampa Bay outfielder Joey Gathright managed to show off his amazing speed with three stolen bases and a triple in just six games. Perhaps even more interesting is that he also saw a league-leading 4.87 pitches per plate appearances in his 23 trips to the plate. Sanchez, on the other hand, has seen a league-worst 2.76 pitches per plate appearance."

I love young guys, but I have also read he needs to work on his defense and he' still unproven.  He has played very little time in the majors, so he's definitely not my first option.

sPaRkLe Hendry sPaRkLe!

by sparkles721 on Nov 28, 2005 4:30 PM CST up reply actions  

you must temper your love...
with knowledge of how Dusty constructs a lineup. If we got him, he'd likely leadoff, get on base at a clip of ~.320, and would steal over 50 bases. Is that an upgrade over last year? Absolutely! Would it be better than the other guys on this list next year? Methinks not. He might be better than these other options in another year or two, but by then i think we'll have better options both at the top of the order and in CF.
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five... or sometime thereafter!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 5:22 PM CST up reply actions  

its not so much a dis of Gathright...
as it is my opinion that he's a bad fit for this club right now. I think Gathright could end up being a great player. However, i don't think he's a good fit for the Cubs. We need someone who can play CF and hit in the top 2 spots in the order for a year or two, and that we can ditch as Pie takes over CF and one of the other youngsters (Cedeno, Murton, or Eric Patterson) take over the 1-2 spot in the batting order.

Furthermore, because Gathright is the "fastest man in baseball" that means he'll lead off for Dusty, almost no matter what. With his relatively low OBP, i don't think that's a good thing. If we had a manager and other good lead off options that combined would allow him to hit him lower in the order while he developed patience i would be more for it. As it stands, he would be the fastest man on the club, which means he would likely lead off, no matter how poorly he hits while learning the ropes.

Gathright is young, fast, and can't hit very well yet. I would rather we get a guy that is much better right now for a year or two than get the potentially better Gathright for years to come, especially when Gathright gives us things our best young position players/prospects have the potential to deliver.

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five... or sometime thereafter!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 5:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Here here...
I would rather take a chance on Lawton again, though that just left a bad taste in my mouth...no more "projects" like Corey.  That was enough for another hundred years.
Always Hopeful on the North Side...

by Kinky Reggae on Nov 28, 2005 6:34 PM CST up reply actions  

your analysis
of gathright's OBP is flawed because you are basing that on his small sample size of being a 4th OF for Tampa.  How about his .380+ minor league numbers when he's playing everyday?  He's a career .316 hitter.  He's a better and cheaper alternative than Pierre--and faster too.

by socalbob on Nov 29, 2005 2:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Out of curiosity...
do you know what his projected MLB OBP is?
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five... or sometime thereafter!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 29, 2005 5:49 PM CST up reply actions  

given that
he has walked 10% of his at bats in the minors and demostrated patience at the big league level, I think he could begin around .350 and improve from there.  I haven't checked his PECOTA or anything like that.  He would give more than Pierre and cost at least $5 million less.

by socalbob on Nov 30, 2005 11:28 AM CST up reply actions  

Hot Trade Rumor
Cubs to trade Kerry Wood and Aramis Ramirez to Boston for Manny and Jason Varitek.

Nomar will be resigned as a 3rd baseman.  The Cubs are also on the verge of signing Johnny Damon.

The Cubs will alos be renamed the Chicago Red Cubs.

Remember you heard it here first and not at that Mlbtraderumors.com site, because I know they will take credit for it.

"You know what God told the cubs. Don't do anything until I get back!" Pete Rose

by Will71081 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Nov 29, 2005 9:01 AM CST reply actions  

well that's just
great.

No prospects?! Could've at least given us Papelbon.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Nov 29, 2005 11:52 AM CST reply actions  

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