Should we bring back our juiced OF?
The title is intentionall misleading... i'm not talking about Sammy Sosa. I'm talking about Matt Lawton. Read on for the reasoning...
I, like most other cubs fans, would like to see the Cubs sign two top of the order hitters this offseason. Hopefully, the Cubs will sign Rafael Furcal and take care of one of those slots. Either way, they should fill one of those slots through an OF acquisition. The other options that have been discussed at BCB for top of the order OFs are Kenny Lofton, Juan Pierre, Milton Bradley and Joey Gathright. For comparisons's sake, here are some career statistincs for the 4 of them and Lawton, without names attached to the stat lines (BA/OBP/SLG/SB%)
OF A: .299/.373/.425/79.3
OF B: .271/.316/.322/81.2
OF C: .267/.368/.418/71.4
OF D: .305/.355/.375/73.6
OF E: .269/.350/.426/65.9
Looking at these statitics alone, it appears that OF A gets on base the best, OF B is the best basestealer but has by far lowest OBP, and OF E has the most power and is the worst basestealer. OFs B and D show a dearth of power, and player B should be avoided at all costs, as his high SB% is sure to cement his low OBP at the top of any lineup Dusty has control over. OFs A and C are the two best all-around offensive players with OF A being the best. The next best on-base rate, and in my opionion, the next best all-around offensive player, is OF C. He gets on base at a great clip, hits for decent power, and is a much better base stealer than the next best player, OF E. Furthermore, since he has the lowest career average, he is likely to be undervalued as a lead-off hitter due to the overestimated importance of this statistic. If OF C were unavailable, i would pursue OF E, but only if we secured a "prototypical lead off hitter" elsewhere, as his low SB% will likely prevent him from leading off on a Dusty Baker lineup card. Player D would be a serviceable option, but he would be my fourth choice, ahead of only option B, which should be looked at as a last resort.
Here are the OF identities:
OF A: Kenny Lofton
OF B: Joey Gathright
OF C: Matt Lawton
OF D: Juan Pierre
OF E: Milton Bradley
As i said above, based on career offensive statistics, Lofton is the best option. However, his age (38) is a concern to me. He hasn't played more than 110 games since 2001, and i think we'd have to put him into a platoon with a right-handed hitter to get good value out of him. If we end up trading for Kevin Mench, and want to go with a Mench/Lofton platoon, i'm extremely happy. However, this scenario is unlikely, since i doubt we'll acquire Mench, Lofton, and yet another veteran OF (Pie could be the other OF, but he won't be up until after the All-star break, and he's also a lefty so he couldn't be platooned with Lofton). If we don't sign Lofton, it, it appears that Lawton might be the best option. I think he would come cheap - a contract similar to what we'll end up paying Pierre or Bradley would probably convince him to come here, and we wouldn't have to give up any players to acquire him. Yes, i know he hit poorly in his short stint with the Cubs, posting #'s of .244/.289/.308/100%(1-for-1 in SBs), and i also know he is suspended for the first 10 games of next season. However, he tends to hit extremely well before the All-Star break, posting pre All-star break splits of .279/.376/.445/68.2% over his career. After the All-star break we'll hopefully need him less after Pie gets called up. One other note against Latwon is actually one in favor of Bradley: Bradley has performed consistently above his career line the last 3 years, posting a line of .290/.379/.463/66.7% over that span - well above the line posted by any of the options. I only want Bradley if we can get Furcal, as Bradley probably won't leadoff for Dusty and we'd still be without a leadoff hitter. And even then he has more serious baggage than Lawton does - he has had a maligned history that has been much discussed on BCB, just look at the diary posted below this one, for example.
There seem to be questions with all these OFs: Can Lofton produce for a full season despite his age? Can Gathright learn plate discipline? Accordingly, do we want to risk finding out if our young lead-off CF can learn plate discipline? Again? Can Lawton stay off the juice and overcome his annual late-season swoon? Can Pierre ever hit anything other than a seeing-eye single? Can Bradley overcome his emotional baggage and not be a threat to clubhouse chemistry (not to mention his playing time)?
The point is that the questions surrounding Lawton aren't any more serious than the other options in my opinion, and therefore i think he should at least warrant consieration. Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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DOH!
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 1:21 PM CST reply actions
whew...
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 2:53 PM CST up reply actions
About Lawton...
Further...
DmL
i agree somewhat...
Al, out of curiosity, who did you vote for?
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 2:56 PM CST up reply actions
also...
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 2:59 PM CST up reply actions
why the dissing of Gathright?
He'd be my number 2 (tied with Lofton), but behind Bradley. I'd say no way to Lawton before saying the same about Gathright.
I'm with ya...
Gathright has been great in the minors as socalbob says. He is very similar to Juan Pierre, and another guy that I just thought of is Willy Taveras. Only difference is Taveras has a little more power than Pierre and Gathright and hit for a lower average in the minors.
From what I have read, Gathright actually has good plate discipline, and when I was looking for info on him I found this from the hardball times, but it's pretty old(from April):
"Before being sent back down to Triple-A to make room for Alex Sanchez (seriously), Tampa Bay outfielder Joey Gathright managed to show off his amazing speed with three stolen bases and a triple in just six games. Perhaps even more interesting is that he also saw a league-leading 4.87 pitches per plate appearances in his 23 trips to the plate. Sanchez, on the other hand, has seen a league-worst 2.76 pitches per plate appearance."
I love young guys, but I have also read he needs to work on his defense and he' still unproven. He has played very little time in the majors, so he's definitely not my first option.
you must temper your love...
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 5:22 PM CST up reply actions
its not so much a dis of Gathright...
Furthermore, because Gathright is the "fastest man in baseball" that means he'll lead off for Dusty, almost no matter what. With his relatively low OBP, i don't think that's a good thing. If we had a manager and other good lead off options that combined would allow him to hit him lower in the order while he developed patience i would be more for it. As it stands, he would be the fastest man on the club, which means he would likely lead off, no matter how poorly he hits while learning the ropes.
Gathright is young, fast, and can't hit very well yet. I would rather we get a guy that is much better right now for a year or two than get the potentially better Gathright for years to come, especially when Gathright gives us things our best young position players/prospects have the potential to deliver.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 28, 2005 5:12 PM CST up reply actions
Here here...
by Kinky Reggae on Nov 28, 2005 6:34 PM CST up reply actions
your analysis
Out of curiosity...
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Nov 29, 2005 5:49 PM CST up reply actions
given that
Hot Trade Rumor
Nomar will be resigned as a 3rd baseman. The Cubs are also on the verge of signing Johnny Damon.
The Cubs will alos be renamed the Chicago Red Cubs.
Remember you heard it here first and not at that Mlbtraderumors.com site, because I know they will take credit for it.
by Will71081 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Nov 29, 2005 9:01 AM CST reply actions
well that's just
No prospects?! Could've at least given us Papelbon.
by priorpwnz on Nov 29, 2005 11:52 AM CST reply actions

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