It's The All-Star Break. Do You Know Where Your Team Is?
With no games that are important in the standings till Friday, I thought it might be interesting to take this pause and compare the Cubs' current standing position to where they were at the All-Star break in each of their four playoff seasons since 1945 (listing the primary contending teams only).
Today:
2003 (All-Star break after games of 7/13):
1998 (All-Star break after games of 7/5):
1989 (All-Star break after games of 7/9):
1984 (All-Star break after games of 7/8):
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I see some similarities
Was there ever as much uncertainty in the lineup..
Furthermore I'm still a little miffed that Pie was going to get his "chance to start" in the first half and then got demoted after less than two weeks. His BA is still higher than Andruw Jones'.
BTW, thanks for the name change
by Jerry Mumphrey on Jul 9, 2007 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions
LOL
Sweet.
by Jerry Mumphrey on Jul 9, 2007 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Ask and you shall receive!
Please don't compare
by lovejones72 on Jul 9, 2007 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
The Cubs are in position to compete.
I have been optimistic about this team all season, but with periods of venting, and I think we will be able to compete with the Brewers for the division. The Cubs are capable of making the playoffs so let's hope for the best.
seeing where we were in 2003
I wouldn't say they were more talented
As good as Wood and Prior were that year, the team still did not take off until they got Lofton, Ramirez and Simon.
Starting Pitching
was way better in 2003 than now. Hill and Marquis are coming back to Earth and Marshall was lucky no get away with a no-decision last time out. He's really just throwing garbage up there and better teams are going to crush him.
Also, when you add in Z's sub-par year and the fact that we might see Wade Miller again. Well, um, yuck.
I see .500 team here if there are no improvements to the SP.
by salparadise23 on Jul 9, 2007 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree on the starters
That's true
Hey, maybe the can get Lofton again! Another reason the CPat debacle hurt this team. If there's no CF logjam, we probably keep Lofton and most likely win several more games over the years.
by salparadise23 on Jul 9, 2007 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
true, but the division was also a lot stronger in
News of the day...
I like Petrick a lot.
Talking about Petrick
by CZ38 on Jul 10, 2007 2:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Personally I can't get excited
I would
by jshipp on Jul 9, 2007 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree...
A lot of good
Let's take a look at this; the Cubs have already tried the power lineup, with a bad catcher, mediocre defense and that got them no where. There are a lot of ways to win baseball games, and having two outs in the lineup, is an issue for a lot of good teams.
Yep
The Cards
Another thing forgotten with that team is the bench. Here are some of their bench/part-timer numbers.
- Duncan .293/.363/.589!
- Spiezio .272/.366/.496
- Luna .291/.355/.417
- Rodriguez .301/.374/.432
LaRussa was able to bring in a good bat when he needed it for Molina and others. Other than Ward, the Cubs don't have that.
Right now, the Cubs are averaging 4.55 runs per game, last year's Cards team scored 4.85.
Let's hope Lee
I'd be fine with a CF upgrade
I'm still not sure how many teams win with a .150 average position player.
I don't think there is any playoff hopeful team
I agree
But that's all these guys will hit
Bowen has now struck out 79 times in 240 AB's and has a .213 lifetime average. His minor league career average is .238. These guys are career backups. Chad Moeller was just released by the Reds. The Cubs might as well sign him as their starting catcher.
I don't understand people thinking these guys will get better. They won't.
Amen
And last I checked, neither one of them can throw anyone out. Improvements defensively over Barrett...but that's purely relative. These guys just are not very good. Period.
Look at the Yankees
Thanks for the chuckle
It makes me laugh.....
Barrett was the instigator. It is that simple. If the Cubs could get AJ, it would be a GREAT get. He is locked up for at least two more years, he has proven he can handle a pitching staff, and most importantly, he is the proud owner of a ring.
I have scissors to help you with the castration......
by timeforachange on Jul 9, 2007 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions
It takes 25 to earn a ring...
Getting AJ, and his ring would not guarantee anything.
Up the middle we need to be strong defensively, even it means sacraficing offense. As someone noted earlier if we were getting production from the proper places this wouldn't be an issue. Furthermore if our bullpen could hold a few more leads we would be in much better shape.
AJ and his ring are not the answer. We have players with rings, and have had players with rings, look what that has got the Cubs...
Missing the point.....
Either way, I think we win this division. IMHO, we need to look big picture and position the team to go deep into October/ November.
by timeforachange on Jul 10, 2007 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions
The point is
I'm tired of arguing. People say Hill and Bowen will get better. I say they won't. They are average defensively at best. Offensively and defensively, they are worse than Brad Ausmus and Yadier Molina. They are career backups who would not be starting for probably any other team in baseball.
If people think this lineup will win, feel free. I don't see Pie contributing much this year, Floyd is more than likely heading to the DL. Theriot is what he is, a poor man's David Eckstein. Fontenot has been great but he won't continue to hit .350. I think the team needs an upgrade or two in order to win in a very winable division and where no one in the whole NL looks that tough. A surprise like the Cardinals could very well happen again this year once a team makes the playoffs.
Jeff Blauser
is also the proud owner of a ring.
by salparadise23 on Jul 10, 2007 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree 2003 team stronger
That's what this team really needs not convinced Jacque Jones can do it, but he can chip in..If a chance arrives to acquire an Andruw Jones or Griffey for not-much, they've got to go for it..Are there any other hard-hitting outfielders likely to be available?? Because with Floyd's continued frailty and Jones' non-productivity, RF seems the most likely place for a major infusion...
Lee could provide a nice pick-up with his power in 2nd half...if he doesn't start hitting HR they're gonna be in trouble with this lineup.
by writerinwrigley on Jul 9, 2007 10:38 AM CDT reply actions
Ugh ... Jones or Griffey?
And
if Hendry deals with the Braves, you know he's going to get robbed blind.
by salparadise23 on Jul 9, 2007 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Besides the fact...
by Damen Jackson on Jul 9, 2007 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Andruw Jones
by No Southern Belle on Jul 9, 2007 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
the '03 Cubs were hot for one month only
by TR on Jul 9, 2007 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
3 is the magic number
They are 4 back now.
by SsEll on Jul 9, 2007 11:01 AM CDT reply actions
I had little hope back in May that we'd
I still think were put together to be a .530ish team but if Hendry truly can shore up some things perhaps we can win this mess of a division.
Milwaukee is a good team and they'll keep getting better with the young talent they have in their farm system. Hopefully this year they're too young and will crack down the stretch.
Agreed
I hear you.
Looking at the Brewers year so far
The way I see the Brewers...
That Brewer team took till 1981 to make the playoffs. This team is VERY similar to that one in its makeup. I see them fading in the second half.
Well
If the Cubs can't win the division, I'll definitely be pulling for the Brew Crew to win it. It would be nice to have a Central champ that's neither St. Louis nor Houston.
by salparadise23 on Jul 9, 2007 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Amen to that Amen
interesting comparison
That Brewer team took till 1981 to make the playoffs. This team is VERY similar to that one in its makeup. I see them fading in the second half.
Couple of things wrong with this.
- in 1978 the Brewers finished 3rd in the AL East with 93 wins. Behind the Yankees (100 wins) and Red Sox (99 wins). That team would have made the playoffs easily in the NL central this year. "took till 1981" is a completely useless fact for comparison here.
- in 1978 at the all star break the Brewers were 48-35, they finished 93-69. A second half record of 45-34. If the '78 and '07 teams are so similar, what makes you think the '07 team will fade where the '78 team excelled? "I see them fading in the second half" is completely contradictory to your comparison to the '78 team.
Also note...
another interesting comparison
True.
I would expect that the Brewers could be a dominant team for several years if they can afford to keep the core together. Maybe they can do what the Indians did in the 90's, sign their young players to longterm deals before they get to free agency or arbitration.
the comparison
I would expect that the Brewers could be a dominant team for several years if they can afford to keep the core together.
How many is several? 5?
Oh, come on.
ok
The core of this team WILL be together for several years, and then, after several years, will be expensive enough that some decisions will have to be made.
So, don't expect the brewers to be busted up anytime in the next several years.
Nope.
nope.
so yes, don't expect the core of the brewers to be busted up anytime soon.
Contradiction is obvious.
If you do have a genuine interest, are still around and would like to discuss it, I'm happy to oblige. Do realize that players become eligible for arbitration when they reach 3 year's MLB service time- 2+ if they have 86 days of service the preceding season and are in the top 17% of all players between 2 and 3 years in terms of playing time? At 6 years players become eligible for FA.
It's obvious that you haven't been accurate in a lot of what you have written on this topic, particularly about the likelihood of the team's staying together. Check it out for yourself the MLB Basic Player Agreement is here: http://roadsidephotos.com/baseball/BasicAgreement.pdf
The contracts and service times are here: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/milwaukee-brewers.html
Unless I'm reading incorrectly or don't completely understand- the majority of the Brewers 25 man roster will be arbitration eligible or free agents at season's end '07 and '08. If you look at Sheets you'll see that in '05 they signed him through'08 to avoid arbitration and cover his first two years of FA, just the scenario that Al suggested.
vacuous
I'm trying to get you to speak in specifics instead of wild generalizations so that we can have a fact-based conversation. Twice now you've suggested that i'm misrepresenting facts. Here it is for you, specifically:
- so you'll want to fact check a little better
- It's obvious that you haven't been accurate in a lot of what you have written on this topic,
Here, i'll lay it out simply for you, you can even refer to the argument by letter if it helps you.
A. The young core of the brewers is under brewer control until about 2012 (hardy is the exception at 2011).
B. For a small market team, a team cannot afford to NOT sign pre-FA players
C. the Brewers are a small market team
----
THEREFORE: the young core of the brewers will be brewers for several years.
Now, what do you have a problem with?
ps. Here's one more (unrelated) fact for you, too. The players on the 25 man roster who will be free agents after this season, or next season are: cordero (32), dessens (36), graffanino (35), miller (37), estrada (31), shouse (38), spurling (30), jenkins (32)
Jacob, Sweetheart calm down.
"But with the way arbitration works small market teams cannot afford NOT to keep players through arbitration."
You wrote that right? Not seeing any comment anywhere like
"B. For a small market team, a team cannot afford to NOT sign pre-FA players"
in fact your post was disputing Al's comment
"I would expect that the Brewers could be a dominant team for several years if they can afford to keep the core together. Maybe they can do what the Indians did in the 90's, sign their young players to longterm deals before they get to free agency or arbitration"
My responses to you have addressed arbitration and free agency. As I said, if they continue to play as well as they are currently they will garner big dollars during arbitration which will make it difficult for the small market Brewers to afford all of the young talent through their FA eligibility. Which makes it likely that some of them them will be traded. Most of the Brewers roster will reach arbitration or free agency after '07 and '08 is an indisputable fact.
Look, you win. I got sucked into the troll. Hey, I'm one of the neanderthal Cub fans that can't understand WPA charts or any of the sophisticated sabrmetric tools at the other BCB so of course you're right about everything. And vacuous? Well compared to "Five Fun Facts about Cecil Fielder" and "Five Fun Facts about Gabe Gross" what isn't? You are welcome here and the next time you troll, I'm sure at least some of the other knuckle dragging Cub fans will bite. I'm finished with this and you. Feel free to respond- I won't read it and you can pretend you're superior.
arbitration
Arbitration win shares are about half as expensive as free agency win shares. It's wrong of you to believe that a small market team cannot afford arbitration eligible players, those arbitration eligible players are under team control and have no leverage.
Arbitration is what keeps small market teams competitive.
who are
buckner, murcer and kingman
There is no question that the '07 offense is stronger than the '78 offense, but they share an unbalanced offense and were both carried in the first half by pitching.
78 vs.07
different Era
True to a point
Nope.
nope.
Yes
I'm sure everyone gets the point that you think that this year's Cubs have been carried by over-performing pitching and as it regresses the Cubs will fall far out of contention and under .500. You are certainly not alone in that supposition.
Since I'm responding the day after your last writing, I'll leave it at that. If this topic still interests you, I'd be curious about your thoughts about both team's first half and what lies ahead for them in the second.
Good food for thought.
Yeah I too lean that way,
by lovejones72 on Jul 9, 2007 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
n/t
I'm pretty sure he took steroids, but he didn't cheat.
So take that for what it is, but I've put enough time into my fandom over the years that I'm not about to question all of professional sports and try to recolor my memories of the 1990s over it. I still try to watch all the Bonds ABs and I'm pulling for a HR. Baseball let the steroid issue happen and Barry went nuts and it honestly doesn't bother me.
by Jerry Mumphrey on Jul 9, 2007 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably he believes
I don't agree with the above.
I also affiliate myself with the -
But as pointed out in the article there had been so many controversies in the game, doubts about so many players that it is irrational to simply ignore the record.
To further clarify my position..
But we know that there had been so many controversies in the game before bonds and as rightly pointed out in the article bonds merely belongs to the 'steroids era' and there had many such tainted eras before the advent of barry bonds. Also it is possible that some of the pitchers who gave up all those home runs to bonds might have very well been on steroids themselves. So interestingly bonds might have been on a level playing field because he was playing in the 'steroids era'.
I think bonds is just a symptom of a bigger disease and that is the failure of MLB system. What we can only do is to have stricter steroid policies and their proper enforcement. But it wouldn't be fair if we ignore Barry's feat or if we show excessive disgust at his accomplishments.
I too am torn.
Take a look at his stats from 1990-1993. In that four season span he had 100 or more RBI's, 39 or more SB's, including 52 in '90, and 30 or more HR's every year, with the exception of '91 when he hit 25. He won 3 MVP's and finished 2nd the other.
This OBVIOUSLY doesn't paint the whole picture, but I have to believe he would have had the credentials to be in the HOF without the steroid use. Now there is obvious debate, but his stats don't lie.
Whether or not you agree with Bonds as a player or person, 755 HR's is an historic feat. I just don't know if I can "celebrate" it.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Jul 9, 2007 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, this is...
Oh, wait.
Yeah, well...
2003 Pitching
I think pitching is going to be the key down the stretch. In 2003 Sosa was the only real power threat, Alou the next closest with 22 HR and 91 RBI. But lets see how the SP did from July on.
From 7/9 on, Kerry Wood went 6-5 w/3 Complete Games and 2 Shut-outs.
From 7/11 on, Mark Prior went 10-2 w/2 Complete Games.
From 7/3 on, Carlos Zambrano went 7-5 w/3 Complete Games and 1 Shut-out.
From 7/2 on, Matt Clement went 9-5 w/2 Complete Games and 1 Shut-out.
That's a combined 32 wins, 10 Complete Games and 4 Shut Outs. If we can get something similar from the current rotation I dont see any reason why we can't win the division. It would be nice to score like the Twins did on the Sox during that double header the other day, but the Cubs are going to score runs, we just need to do a better job of pitching with dominance.
2003 stats http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2003.shtml
That would be nice
phat
by phatass on Jul 9, 2007 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions
the big trade
by ryan797 on Jul 9, 2007 2:08 PM CDT reply actions
it certainly
by lovejones72 on Jul 9, 2007 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I type like I have
by lovejones72 on Jul 9, 2007 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
After getting thru...
AJ is NOT that trade - while decent at the bat, he's had problems with focusing with pitchers in the past in San Fran, and right now I like the fact that our pitchers seem comfortable with the way our catchers call the game (so does Lou, evidently). I'd love to see us get more offense out of that position, but not if we sacrifice defense/pitch calling.
Here's an oldie but goodie for all of you - ARod. The Yankees are going nowhere this year, he's probably opting out after this year (see the NY Post stuff), and with the age in their rotation (Mussina, Clemens, Petite) and elsewhere (Posada, Jeter, the shrinking man Jason Giambi) they need to free up cash for some good free agents (don't laugh - they could use some payroll flexibility). The Cubs with Pinella are arguably one of the few places he'd waive his no-trade clause for, he stays in a major market (but not one as insane as NYC), plays for a coach he loves, and can go back to his old position of shortstop.
The price could be really high (Pie, Marshall or Guzman, Fontenot or Theriot or Cedeno, perhaps JJones, maybe another pitcher/reliever), but if the Yankees are out of it near the end of July, why KEEP ARod?
Of course, there are teams out there that can offer more in return (Angels, Dodgers, maybe Padres), but I'd love to see us kick the tires...
where would A-Rod play?
yes....
You know what's sad about this post?
Unbelievable. Mind-boggling. Maddening. Add your own.
Sigh.
Actually, it's four in the 26 years of Tribco ownership, still not great, I acknowledge.
For the last three decades or so of Wrigley ownership, it was pretty clear the Wrigleys didn't know what they were doing and weren't really trying. They lucked into some good teams in the late 60's and early 70's that SHOULD have had several playoff appearances, but didn't.
Look, we all know the history of failure. Constantly reminding us -- what's the point?
Let's look forward. There's still a chance THIS year. That's what's important to me NOW.
Sigh too......
I will say Al; your piece on mgmt the other day was interesting. Although you are correct that no one outside of the inner circle knows 100% what is going on, you can not tell me that Zell and his group nixed the deal.
Think about it: Jones is a starter. Jones is benched. Jones is told he is not wanted. Jones is now Lou's buddy again. Me thinks that Uncle Lou knows he can't get rid of him and he now has to make the best of it.
Also, the Zambrano mess is 100% due to the change in ownership. There is no master plan.
I do agree with you regarding the hatred spewed towards Hendry. Personally, I do not like the man as the GM of the team I root for. That is where I stop. The personal attacks are weak.
As for McDonough, I stand by my comments that he is over his head. IMHO, he is a great marketing guy. That is where he should stay.
by timeforachange on Jul 9, 2007 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions
And once again to Al and timeforachange....
It is not someone saying Jacque Jones will always suck, Wrigley Field is a dump, etc., etc.
I guess it is easier and convenient to forget about the near 100 years of failure of this team.
And nothing like quoting Ditka . He was always known for his philosophical
greatness. Either that or flipping off a fan.
What was the point of your post?
But as you wrote, I guess it's easier for you to write and be negative and slam anything you can, rather than to think positively. Suit yourself.
Let me apply your thinking to your original post..
Then why bring up the records of 4 teams that failed to win the World Series? Isn't that in the past also? Those 4 teams past records have no bearing on this years team. Again, I said absolutely nothing about this years team, I just made a statement about the Cubs failure to reach the postseason.
"I guess it's easier for you to write and be negative and slam anything you can, rather than to think positively."
Me pointing out the fact that the Cubs have failed to be a consistent participant in the postseason using the facts you gave is being negative or stating a fact?
"Failure to reach the postseason".
Your negative post, in which you stated a fact which we all know, was pointless.
I know you love being negative. Hope you enjoy that. It wears on me.
Al, you can't be serious.....
Exactly the opposite Al. I hate the fact that this team has only crappy results, which reinforces my lack of faith in them. I would love nothing more than for the Cubs to provide me with no reasons to doubt them, but that day hasn't arrived. Prove me wrong is my yearly motto. Hell, even the Red Sox have a title.
I grasp the fact that you showed the records of the last four Cub teams that reached the postseason.
Since my post "has no point", answer me this:
Why are you bringing up past records since you only "look forward"? Using your stance, we should not even be using the past as a basis to judge this team.
How could one not understand a Cub fans less-than-rosy disposition toward their favorite team? That's even more mind-boggling.
But guess what Al: I'm going to keep hoping they win the title, not just in the manner you would like.
Okay.....
Second, you are correct about this team's futility. No one can argue differently. However, IMHO, there has been a change this year due to the manager. I equate it to what happened when Dallas Green was brought in. This team is not the "lovable losers" (puke) of years gone bye. Uncle Lou has held people accountable and has not stuck with status quo.
This season should not be compared to years past, IMHO. I am excited to see this play out. I do not care about 69, 84, 89, 98, 03, 04, 05 or 06.
BTW, Jones will always suck and Wrigley is a dump.
by timeforachange on Jul 10, 2007 7:41 AM CDT up reply actions
lol....
1978 Cubs team--no comparison
They were fun though how they overachieved in the first few mos...May was wonderful, as I recall...Ontiveras, Mick Kelleher, Jerry Morales, Barry Foote all contributing big-time.
by writerinwrigley on Jul 9, 2007 4:15 PM CDT reply actions
You're thinking of the 1977 team...
The '78 team's high point was 35-26, nine over .500, 3 games ahead on June 19, at which point they promptly lost six in a row to fall out of first place; they got back to within 2 games of first on August 18, but never closer.
And Manny Trillo!!
Vince & Lou and Brick made it all so memorable, I can still hear their voices nearly 30 yrs. later....
by writerinwrigley on Jul 9, 2007 5:15 PM CDT reply actions
those times
Thanks Al,
This brought back happy and sad memories.
However, I hope we get a great resurgence from Hill and Marshall as they will be key during the rest of the season if we're to have a shot at the Wild Card or Division.
As you recall, Wade Miller was pitching BP in Milwaukee!
I'd hat it to have to come to this!!
by TheEman on Jul 9, 2007 5:20 PM CDT reply actions
That's "hate it"..
by TheEman on Jul 9, 2007 5:21 PM CDT reply actions
good players not playing... good
BUT...
I think the Cubs should have Derosa at second, and Ramirez at 1st and third, Fontenot at short, Floyd in Right, Soriano in left, and Pie in Center. Theriot, Pagan, Jones and Ward make me feel comfortable enough to rest someone once in a while and they're great to have off the bench...
Izturis should go and I'd be surprised if he's still here at the end of July. I'd take Cedeno back up from AAA over the Izturis. I still think the Cubs will be able to unload Jones but I also predict Murton or Pagan will be gone too.
As for Wade Miller? well I think we should chalk that up as "not Hendry's finest hour."
by Willgly on Jul 9, 2007 5:32 PM CDT reply actions
Wow!
OK, I'm kidding. I know you meant to put D-Lee's name in there.
Right?
The Hot Corners?
Mr. Willgly didn't mention catcher, and as it has been stressed by others, the 2 headed Hill/Bowen is an out in the lineup. Hank White is at best doubtful to hit more than .220, but a good-hitting defensively competent catcher is hard to come by.
Fonty's Defense
I wouldn't mind seeing Riot and Cedeno splitting time at SS then seeing who can keep a hot bat going.
I have a feeling......
As far as a bat, and I do not think they have the bank to pull it off, but Gomes from Tampa has been a rumor I continue to hear about. It may take a Jones, Izturis, Eyre, AA player, but he has a righty bat and can play right field. We will see.
Watching ....
Just a random thought
I feel that MLB and Selig overreacted to that tie game a few years back........but I also admit that I'm an old guy that doesn't easily accept change of any kind.

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