With two deals made yesterday -- Matt Holliday to the A's, and Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals, and Jake Peavy... still a Padre a this writing, the trade market appears to be heating up, and on Thursday, declared free agents will be eligible to sign with any team.

One interesting development overnight was the Padres' withdrawal of a $4 million offer to Trevor Hoffman. Granted, Hoffman is 41 and didn't have such a good year in 2008, but he is a franchise icon and that offer was about half what he made in '08. Whether this is another part of San Diego's cost-cutting in the wake of owner John Moores' costly divorce, or whether it's a harbinger of things to come -- will teams start to rein in spending because of the current economic crisis? -- remains to be seen.

What seems clear is that the Cubs aren't going to be major players in the free agent market. Much as we might like to see CC Sabathia in blue pinstripes, it's not going to happen. The only free agents the Cubs are likely to sign are their own -- Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood and Henry Blanco, I believe, will all eventually re-up. Daryle Ward may not be back, and Chad Fox and Jon Lieber -- well, yes, they filed, but you didn't really expect to see them as Cubs again, did you?

So instead, Jim Hendry is going to have to get creative. With the Marlins dealing Willingham, does that mean Jeremy Hermida is off the market? I would argue that the Cubs might be able to get him with a package that could include Felix Pie and Sean Marshall. This is pure speculation on my part, and likely they'd have to put another prospect in such a deal, but Pie would be an immediate starter in Florida and Marshall would replace the traded Scott Olsen in the Marlins' rotation.

With Hermida on board and Kosuke Fukudome likely then moving to CF as a platoon partner for Reed Johnson, that would complete the Cubs' starting outfield for 2009. I would still like to see the Cubs sign Kevin Millar to back up LF, RF and 1B... and to be that clubhouse presence that was missing, somehow, during the disastrous 2008 postseason. Yes, I am well aware that Millar is getting on in years and didn't have a very good offensive season in 2008 (despite hitting 20 HR in 531 AB and drawing 71 walks, which would have ranked among the Cubs' team leaders). The Cubs wouldn't be asking Millar to start -- just back up, and provide the looseness that any winning clubhouse needs. Since Hermida would be the starting LH bat in RF, having Millar replace Daryle Ward as the #1 pinch-hitter would be acceptable. At one time I advocated trading Derrek Lee, but after seeing some of the discussions here which mentioned that his neck and back problems may have been the cause of his power dropoff, I would think that an offseason's rest would get him back into shape. He'll probably never have a year like he had in 2005, but even if he could get back to his 2004 level (.860 OPS), that'd be just fine.

With Sean Marshall gone, the Cubs would need another pitcher to perform the role that Marshall did quite well last year -- start occasionally and be a long reliever... that is, if Lou even knows how to use a long reliever, something he failed to do in many situations that called for it. There are some mid-range starting pitcher free agents that could fill this role without costing a fortune: Randy Wolf, Mark Hendrickson, or even Freddy Garcia, who started for Lou for several years in Seattle and who appeared recovered from his arm troubles in pitching five strong innings in that September 29 Tigers/White Sox makeup game at the Cell.

Filling the slot being vacated by the (presumably) departed Bob Howry should be fairly simple to do, either via someone on this list of free-agent relievers (would you take a chance on bringing back some former Cubs like Juan Cruz or Kyle Farnsworth?) or perhaps, by someone who will come out of spring training and surprise. There seems to be someone like that virtually every year. Or maybe Michael Wuertz will finally fulfill the promise that has had him as part of the Cubs' bullpen for the last five seasons.

The rest of the team seems fairly well set; regardless of whether you agree with him or not, Lou likes Ryan Theriot and he will be the starting SS, unless there's someone who could come in cheaply to replace him. One possibility could be Juan Uribe -- and if Uribe didn't start, he could capably back up all three infield positions. Ronny Cedeno did a decent job as a backup in 2008, and if he came into 2009 in the same role, I think we could live with it. Another possibility is Nate Spears, who the Cubs acquired almost as an afterthought from the Orioles in the Corey Patterson deal three years ago. Spears will be 24 in May, had an .832 OPS in Double-A last year and as of today is replicating that (.827) in the Arizona Fall League. He hits lefthanded and has a good glove. Spears isn't on the 40-man roster, which now stands at 39, but that can be easily remedied.

The bottom line is that I don't think the Cubs are getting Jake Peavy, and that's fine with me. Peavy's numbers outside of Petco don't scream "ace" to me, and his contract, four years' worth, would hamstring the team in an era when some here are screaming for Hendry to dump some of the backloaded deals he's handed out like Halloween candy over the last couple of years. The Cubs ought to also look hard at whoever is available in the Rule 5 draft and also at the non-tender list when it comes out in the middle of December.

As I said last time I posted on this topic, this team won 97 games a year ago. There's no need to blow it up and start over. Tweaking, upgrading the bench and bullpen, and making sure the starting rotation has backups in case of injury, are the most important things.

For those of you screaming and yelling about the alleged possibility that Bud Selig is going to "install" John Canning as Cubs owner, I refer you to this November 7 article from the Sun-Times:

Bidders for the team include Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and the cable channel HDNet, and Thomas Ricketts, president of corporate bond dealer Incapital LLC. An insider said Ricketts, whose family wealth derives from the TD Ameritrade brokerage, currently has the inside track.

Cuban has a colorful reputation and drinks beer in the stands with the fans, but the source said the credit drought has hurt his chances. "Whatever the price for the Cubs, he was only going to put in $100 million of his own money," the source said.

And that last part is why Cuban might be out, not any supposed enmity from Bud Selig and/or Jerry Reinsdorf. I agree with the article: if the sale is consummated soon, it'll be the Ricketts group. But given the state of the economy, who knows?

Thursday has dawned gloomy, windy and rainy in Chicago, matching the moods of all of us, I suspect, after the Cubs' fifth straight loss, 4-0 to the Astros, completing a Houston sweep, the first time the Cubs have been swept at home since the Marlins did it at the end of May, 2007 -- just before The Lou Tirade that galvanized that team to start winning. It was also cool and windy after it had been 94 degrees on Tuesday, reminding all of us that fall is coming. Fall baseball in Chicago. Right?

Yes, I'm grasping at straws here. Aren't you?

The Cubs made Randy Wolf look like a 2001-vintage Randy Johnson last night; Wolf threw his first CG shutout since 2004 and the closest the Cubs came to scoring was having Ronny Cedeno gunned down at the plate in the fifth inning after an Alfonso Soriano single.

Ryan Dempster threw well enough; his biggest mistake was hit by Ty Wigginton for a two-run homer, making the score 3-0 in the fifth, but by then the Astros had the only run they would need. Dempster gave up eight hits and three runs in his seven innings and good teams should win 99% of all games where your starting pitcher throws that well. Count this in the other 1%. And how would Dempster get the Cubs out of this?

Dempster has a remedy in mind.

"We've just got to come to the field and have a good day off [Thursday]," he said, "maybe go get some Einstein's Bagels in the morning, go for a nice run, then have a nice plane flight, go have a nice dinner and go to Cincinnati refreshed and put this behind us and just play well."

Einstein's. Well, whatever works. Last night was the first complete game thrown against the Cubs since June 6 in Los Angeles, when the Dodgers' Hiroki Kuroda, a pitcher whose season numbers aren't that much different from Randy Wolf's, shut out the Cubs and struck out eleven. After that game the Cubs won six of their next eight, which is just about exactly what they need right now.

It was a goofy night all around. A fight broke out in our aisle in the bleachers in the first inning over... nothing. No one could figure out how it started or who started it, but there was quite a bit of shouting, several beers spilled, but in the end, no one got hurt or ejected, and a lot of those involved wound up leaving early when the play on the field started clunking along.

Speaking of which, can the Cubs do better for a righthanded bat off the bench than Casey McGehee? I suppose he's here as kind of a "lovely parting gift", because he's almost 26 years old and has a career minor league OPS of .741, but he has seemed overmatched in his two major league AB, and when he batted for Dempster in the seventh inning with a runner on and the score still 3-0, a hit might have galvanized a comeback -- but he hit into a double play (this, after striking out in his ML debut the night before).

This morning WXRT DJ Lin Brehmer called for the IMMEDIATE stop of that insipid Bon Jovi song they keep playing during pitching changes at Wrigley Field! For the love of God, make it stop! Never thought I'd miss YMCA...

Lin Brehmer is a fellow Colgate graduate -- two years ahead of me, I knew him while I was in school there and I'm with him. The Cubs have 16 of their final 22 games on the road, so clearly, the winning of this division is going to have to be done there. Those of you heading to Cincinnati -- be numerous, be loud, bring us some wins. As I noted yesterday, the Cubs have won 13 of their last 14 road games while struggling lately at home. More numbers: they've started 0-4 in September, but also started poorly in May (1-4); that became a good month at 18-11. I said I'd start posting the magic number when it dropped to 20 -- it's now 19, but I feel that the Cubs ought to at least make it drop by one by winning a game before I put it up there. So -- I hope you can all wait till Friday to see it. Also, BCB reader FragginJudge, visiting from Puerto Rico, sat with us -- it was nice to meet you, but that's a long way to come and not to see even one win (he saw the entire Houston series).

Finally, yesterday BCB reader JohnM posted about the playoff email ticket lottery; this will, I suspect, actually give you a better shot at tickets, as if you get chosen in the lottery, you'll almost certainly get tickets, rather than sitting for hours in the VWR and getting nothing. Most teams are going to this sort of system; sign up here.

And keep the faith. The Cubs are still a good team, and they are still in the driver's seat. They have kept at least a 3.5 game lead since July 30. Yes, we are a little worried about Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden. So, Sean Marshall, who joins the rotation on Sunday, will have to step up. I have confidence in him, and in the rest of this team. Take a deep breath and enjoy the off day -- the Cubs' first since August 18. The best is yet to come.