I have never professed to be an expert in baseball financial matters. But there is a clue in Jeff Passan's arbitration roundup at Yahoo that may give some insight into why the Cubs didn't offer arbitration to Kerry Wood (or, for that matter, to any of their other compensation-eligible free agents):

OK, so Arizona doesn’t want to get stuck with Adam Dunn next season at the $15 million or so he’d get through arbitration. Fine. It’s a short-sighted maneuver not to offer arbitration – he’s bound to get a multi-year deal somewhere – but with the Diamondbacks offering arbitration to Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, one scouting director wondered whether it was to avoid a glut of draft choices and the signing bonuses that accompany them.

While two sources dismissed the idea, one pointed out that with Dunn, Hudson and Cruz all Type A players likely to sign elsewhere, it would have left the Diamondbacks with seven high picks, including their own first-rounder, and eight if Lyon doesn’t accept arbitration. According to Baseball America, Arizona spent only $4.49 million on its draft choices last season, the seventh-lowest number in the game.

Now, you'll remember that the Cubs were fined $500,000 last summer for some shenanigans regarding signing certain players above slot recommendations and not reporting those signings on a timely basis. Based on that, perhaps the paradoxical idea that the Cubs wouldn't want the extra draft picks because of the extra money they might cost actually makes some sense. On the other hand, none of this means that the Cubs and Kerry Wood might not still come to agreement on a one year-deal, especially since in the present market, that multi-year contract Jim Hendry told Wood to go out and get might not exist.

We are living in a very different economy, as Passan points out:

Now, though, with advertising reps reporting back to their bosses that sales are hard to come by and teams cringing at the notion of fans’ disposable income shriveling like a raisin, arbitration is a risk. In the process, the team and player either come to an agreed-upon salary – usually more than the previous season – or each side picks a number and allows an impartial arbitrator to choose the player’s salary.

So the idea that the Cubs may want to pare any further payroll increases down -- including the possibility that Jake Peavy's deal isn't affordable financially, never mind the players that might have to be given up -- has less to do with who becomes the new owner of the team and more to do with the shrinking number of advertising dollars that may be coming in for the 2009 season. It's the first week of December, the time when season ticket invoices usually arrive for those of us who have season tickets. We've seen nothing yet, nor any hint (beyond an offhand comment from Jim Hendry on the Score last week that some prices may go up while most stay the same) of what ticket prices will be in 2009.

This isn't just a Cub issue, either. Here's a list of all the free agents this offseason. Only three of them have signed so far: Ryan Dempster re-upped with the Cubs for about market rate; Doug Brocail stayed with his old team, the Astros, also for a reasonable deal; and Jeremy Affeldt, the only one so far to change teams, signed with the Giants for a fairly "modest" $8 million for two years. And of 60 Type A or B free agents, fewer than half -- only 24 -- were offered arbitration. We may all have to adjust our thinking about what the Cubs -- or ANY team -- can and will afford to acquire, either by trade or free agency, this offseason. As Passan points out:

[Bobby] Abreu, for example, made $16 million last season. Though his numbers have declined, he would stand to make about $17 million through arbitration. And while that was a fair amount in the past, even New York couldn’t stomach it this year.

The Yankees scrimping. This really is a recession.

Finally, the Biz of Baseball site posted yesterday the breakdown of postseason shares by team. Here's what the Cubs got and handed out:

Chicago Cubs (Share of Players’ Pool: $1,534,779.83; value of each full share: $25,032.89) – The Cubs awarded 50 full shares, 11.03 partial shares and five cash awards.

The shares are usually voted on by the players themselves. I'm guessing the partial shares went to players like Matt Murton and Sean Gallagher who were traded, or guys like Kevin Hart and Neal Cotts, who spent part of the year in the minors.

Let's hope they have larger shares -- like the $351.504.48 per full share that the champion Phillies gave out -- to distribute in 2009.

Today is the deadline for major league teams to offer arbitration to their free agents -- 10:59 pm Central time, specifically, so we may not hear specifics till tomorrow.

photo via assets.espn.go.com

So does Kerry Wood get offered arbitration? Yes. No. Maybe. You can bet that if he is offered arb, he'll accept -- and don't assume that's a budget-breaker, either. Wood wants to remain a Cub -- we all know that. It's more than possible he'll take less than an arbitrator would award to do so. The deadline for Wood to accept arb, if offered, is next Sunday, December 7.

What will be more interesting to see is whether other players, particularly, as noted in Ken Rosenthal's article above, Adam Dunn, are offered arbitration. It's possible the Diamondbacks will want to keep him; we'll see after today.

Other Cub rumors are summarized neatly in this Dave van Dyck article, in which he says, basically, nothing's happening right now and isn't likely to until the winter meetings get under way next week.

Use this thread for arbitration and trade discussion today. I'll update the post with any new information if it comes in during the day.

For the last two years, I've run a contest paralleling MLB.com's Free Agent Frenzy. (MLB.com login may be required to view that page.)

If you haven't done this before, here's how it works. MLB.com lists 15 top free agents -- we'll use the same ones -- and then you pick what team you think each player will sign with, and a number representing your confidence level in that signing, from 15 (most confident) to 1 (least confident). In other words, if you are 100% sure Ryan Dempster will re-sign with the Cubs, you'd give him 15 points. If you think he's back but you're less certain, give him fewer points. UPDATE TO CLARIFY THIS: Each number from 1 to 15 is given ONLY ONCE for the entire list of free agents; i.e. the guy you are most confident will sign with a particular team gets 15 points; the one you pick out of a hat gets 1 point.

Whoever has the most points after all 15 free agents on the list are signed wins. The prize this year will once again be a copy of Glenn Stout's "The Cubs", an excellent comprehensive history of the ballclub.

The 15 free agents are:

Bobby Abreu
Milton Bradley
A. J. Burnett
Pat Burrell
Ryan Dempster
Adam Dunn
Rafael Furcal
Derek Lowe
Oliver Perez
Manny Ramirez
Francisco Rodriguez
CC Sabathia
Ben Sheets
Mark Teixeira
Kerry Wood

Leave your picks in the comments. We'll use the same deadline as MLB's contest: 4 pm CT on Wednesday, November 12 (the day before free agents can sign with any team). I'll also need a volunteer to keep track of these and let me know who the winner is. I'm going to make picks; if somehow I win (highly unlikely!) the prize goes to the second place finisher. Good luck!

In a season filled with superlatives, Rich Harden almost gave the Cubs a memory to savor forever. On the 39th anniversary of Kenny Holtzman's no-hitter vs. the Braves at Wrigley Field, Harden had good enough stuff to throw one -- mowing the Reds down easily, retiring the first ten batters he faced before Jeff Keppinger lined a single to center to break up any mid-game thoughts of perfection.

Harden finished with two hits allowed and ten strikeouts in seven outstanding innings, and the Cubs dispatched the Reds efficiently 5-0, increasing their division lead to its largest of the season, six games, when the Brewers lost to the Astros in Milwaukee last night.

Harden, who told Lou he'd rather throw at night in cooler conditions -- presumably he's used to that from growing up in British Columbia and pitching in Oakland -- was pushed back to this series from the humidity in Florida, and got his wish. It was Septembrish-cool at Wrigley last night, with the wind blowing in and the ball not carrying at all. And Harden's 94 pitches averaged just over four pitches per batter (comparison point: he threw 92 pitches in five innings in Atlanta, 94 in seven last night). It was the second time in his seven Cub starts that he walked no one, and the fourth time he struck out ten. The only other hit off Harden was a sixth-inning single by Reds rookie Chris Dickerson (it's weird seeing the Reds without Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. -- those two had been Reds teammates for nearly seven years), and Kerry Wood allowed one more single in a non-save situation in the 9th.

Meanwhile, the Reds' Johnny Cueto was also throwing a nice game, thanks in part to some really questionable baserunning by Cubs. In the third, Mark DeRosa led off with a double. Harden failed to advance him via bunt, and then, inexplicably, DeRosa got caught off second base on a routine ground ball to short. Alfonso Soriano was safe on that grounder, but he promptly got picked off, his second pick in as many games. Two innings later, Harden made up for his poor third-inning bunt by laying down an excellent safety squeeze following a Geovany Soto triple and walk to Kosuke Fukudome. Soto waited till Reds 3B Edwin Encarnacion committed to throwing to first, then broke for the plate and scored when Joey Votto's throw home was off line, giving the Cubs a 1-0 lead.

With Harden, Wood and Carlos Marmol, who threw the 8th (and probably could have thrown the 9th, too, getting out of the 8th with only 11 pitches), throwing as well as they were, one run would have been enough; but the Cubs tacked on four more in the 8th after Cueto was pulled for a pinch-hitter. Dusty Baker did something so familiar to all of us, yanking reliever after reliever, playing "the book" in switching off pitchers for supposed platoon advantage, yet none of it worked. The two biggest blows in the inning were a rocket double down the line by Aramis Ramirez, and then after an intentional pass to Soto, Fukudome singled in the final two runs.

When Marmol was facing Corey Patterson, I said to Mike, "This is one of the biggest pitcher-batter mismatches you'll see all year." Mike, who waited years before he caught a HR in the bleachers, got his first in 2004, a Patterson shot in the 12th inning of this game on September 7, said that Patterson would probably prove me wrong by hitting one. Wrong, at least in this miserable year for Patterson -- Marmol struck him out on a nasty slider.

For Harden's part, I'm happy to say that those who wanted him here were right -- he appears to be keeping healthy, and some of the reasons can be found in Gordon Wittenmyer's article in today's Sun-Times. The Cub staff is doing everything right, I think, in managing Harden's workload and preparation so he stays that way.

The Cubs are 29 games over .500. The next milestone is 32 games over .500, last reached on September 2, 1969 -- that's the most games over .500 since 1945. Yes, it has been a long litany of failure. But this year is erasing many numbers from the past. May it continue deep into October.

Geovany Soto triples in the fifth inning

Rich Harden lays down a bunt in the fifth inning...

... scoring Soto from third

Kosuke Fukudome nearly screwing himself into the ground swinging and missing in the 8th. He later singled in two runs in this at-bat

New on the scoreboard last night...

... the words to "Go Cubs Go"!

Click on photos to open a larger version in a new browser window. All photos by David Sameshima. More photos of last night's game by BCB reader Damen Jackson can be found here.

Maybe it's my fault. I did, after all, sort of predict this in the pregame thread when I said:

Let's be realistic. It's going to be warm and somewhat humid today with the wind blowing out. Lilly and Arroyo rank 5th and 6th in the NL in HR allowed. Watch for long balls on both sides this afternoon.

What I was thinking was that the teams would pretty much evenly split their home runs and the Cubs come out on top. I would never have guessed that the only Cub HR would be hit by the littlest Cub, Mike Fontenot, and the Reds would pound out seven, including possibly the longest one I've ever seen hit onto Sheffield -- by Adam Dunn in the sixth inning; it appeared to hit the Lakeview Baseball Club building just below the AC sign, a blast that, if you believe the foot-marker that was on that building briefly in the 1980's, was about 480-490 feet.

Even at that, the Cubs did try to climb back into the game, helped by some shoddy Reds defense; after the Reds took an 8-3 lead into the bottom of the 4th, the Cubs closed it to 8-5 on Fontenot's HR, and then 10-7 in the sixth when they should have scored more; Edwin Encarnacion's throw in the general vicinity of right field on an attempted force at 2B gave the Cubs runners on first and third with nobody out, and a run already in, but Ryan Theriot hit an almost identical ball to Encarnacion. He turned it into a DP; a run scored, but that was their last, best opportunity of the 12-7 loss to the Reds this afternoon, which, combined with Milwaukee's 11-1 blowout of Colorado and the Cardinals' loss to the Phillies, put the Brewers in second place, four games behind the Cubs, so the division lead shrinks by only a half-game, rather than a full game, as second place changes hands.

By the time Theriot hit into the DP, a moderate rainshower had dampened the Yard -- apparently, no one but us had prepared for rain, because I saw virtually no other umbrellas anywhere in the park and only a few ponchos; the rain and the unfavorable score sent about a third of the crowd home at that point, and by the time Neal Cotts allowed the last Reds HR of the game to Joey Votto, about half the 41,459 had departed.

These things are going to happen, even to good teams, and it's hard to sweep series; the Cubs won this one and if they can take two of three from the Giants this weekend, they'll go into the break in fine shape. But I do have a bone to pick with Lou Piniella over his use of the 13-man pitching staff today. Yes, there are plenty of relievers, especially after most of them got yesterday off. But that was an awfully quick hook of Ted Lilly -- yes, he wasn't sharp, but only 63 pitches? And Lou -- you've got a long reliever. His name is Jon Lieber. Why wasn't he the first pitcher into the game, if you are going to take your starter out in the third inning? (Not that Lieber did all that well today, either, but that's not the point.) Michael Wuertz, the forgotten man in the pen (hadn't pitched in a week, and neither had Lieber, for that matter), had nothing today -- the Reds pounded him. Maybe that's not fair -- the Reds pounded everyone the Cubs sent out there, including Chad Gaudin, who gave up a HR to the first batter he faced in blue pinstripes. After allowing a single to the next man he faced, pinch-hitter Jay Bruce, he retired the next six hitters easily.

In discussing this in the bleachers today, we reached the conclusion that Lieber or Wuertz might be the odd-man out after the All-Star break. Lieber's probably going to retire after this season anyway, Lou doesn't seem to trust him much, and he's only got (approximately) $1.5 million left on his contract. I could see him being unconditionally released. Wuertz, despite today's poor performance, does have trade value, and perhaps Jim Hendry is working on that. That makes tomorrow's start by Jason Marquis important not only for the team, but for Marquis, because he could also be on the "get rid of" list. One of those three is likely to not be a Cub when they reconvene in Houston next Friday.

Dave was also very critical of Kosuke Fukudome today; he said, "The Cubs wanted him because he supposedly had LH power, but he hasn't hit for much power." That's true, and I think most of us expected that his power would drop on coming over from Japan, as happens to many Japanese players. Fukudome has added value in other areas, including plate discipline and good defense, but the league seems to be catching up to him and he needs to make adjustments. He looked really bad today in going 0-for-5 and striking out three times; he'll go to the All-Star Game primarily because of online voting from Japan (I think all of us acknowledge that he really doesn't deserve the slot based on performance), but I suspect he could really take advantage

of some time off. With the Giants starting three righthanders this weekend and with only three true outfielders on the major league roster, don't look for much time off for either Fukudome or Jim Edmonds, and they could both use it.

Losses happen, even blowouts. The offense did enough today to win, but the bullpen failed -- eight runs allowed in 6.1 innings. Ugh. Go get 'em tomorrow.

Note from walking around the ballpark pre-game today: the Matt Murton jerseys are all on clearance. You can get one for $69.99, which in my opinion is too much. I'm guessing they'll be cut to about half that before any got sold.

Oh, and for those of you who did want, or still want, Erik Bedard -- it's a good thing he's still a Mariner. He's on the DL again. (And, just to note, that article also mentions the Mariners' release of Richie Sexson -- they are eating $6 million of his contract.)

Two plays.

One ball hit by Jeff Keppinger that Aramis Ramirez couldn't handle, and which went under his glove for a first-inning error.

And another, one bad pitch from Carlos Zambrano to Adam Dunn that was deposited into the center-field juniper bushes for a brief 1-0 Reds lead in the second.

Other than that, Carlos Zambrano was perfect last night, retiring all 20 batters he faced after the Dunn HR. So what would you have done? The Cubs had, thanks to a Ramirez HR and some other timely hitting, extended the lead to 5-1 (which would be the final, a 5-1 win over the Reds, the Cubs' third in a row), and Z was at 103 pitches. Do you leave him in to finish what would have been the first CG one-hitter of his career?

There are conflicting reports. Bruce Miles writes that Lou felt 100-105 pitches was enough:

"He wanted to go out and finish it, but it was only his second time out since being off the DL, and we were on a game plan of 100-105 pitches," Piniella said. "We let him hit (in the eighth). That appeased him a little bit."

But, even Z himself acknowledged, in Carrie Muskat's cubs.com recap, that taking him out was the wise thing to do:

"I was thinking about that," Zambrano said about going the distance. "It's been a long time since I pitched a complete game. But not in this situation. I came off the DL one start ago, and it's too soon. Hopefully, in the second half of the season, I will have a chance to throw a complete game."

It was a near-perfect weather night, too, the kind you want to bottle up and let out on some blustery January day when you think it's never, ever going to get warm again. Unlike Tuesday night, the wind had pretty much died completely not long after game time, and just a few clouds on the horizon made the sunset pink and orange over the Yard. While Z was firing blanks at the Reds -- and in his best 2003-style form, not trying to blow hitters away, but instead getting ground balls, eleven of the twenty consecutive outs being on the ground -- the Cubs were methodically putting up runs. Dunn's HR was matched in the bottom of the 2nd when Jeff Keppinger's error on Mark DeRosa's grounder allowed Geovany Soto to score.

Later, Ramirez homered to give the Cubs a 2-1 lead, and then in the seventh, the Cubs batted around and extended it to 5-1 on RBI hits from Kosuke Fukudome (double), Derrek Lee (single), and A-Ram again (double). It could have and should have been more -- Z had attempted a sacrifice bunt after Reed Johnson led off the inning with a single, and replays showed that Z was safe after Cueto double-clutched. (It wasn't even close; 1B umpire Eric Cooper must have taken his eyes off the play.)

But that last is nitpicking. This isn't: we hope Carlos Marmol isn't hurt. He got the first two outs in the 9th easily, including one on a spectacular stop by D-Lee on Paul Bako's grounder past 1B, but appeared to have been spiked. He took a few warmup tosses and stayed in the game, getting the second out (a fly ball from PH Corey Patterson, who was roundly booed), but then on a similar play to Bako's, Jay Bruce was ruled safe (that one, unlike the one on Z, appeared to be a correct call). Then Marmol fell apart, throwing a wild pitch and walking the bases loaded, forcing Lou to summon Kerry Wood to finish it off.

Which he did, running the club record at Wrigley Field to -- how many more superlatives can you find? I can't -- an absolutely stunning 35-10, the best home winning percentage in baseball in a year when many teams have played exceptionally well at home.

Finally, after his news conference welcoming him to Chicago, new Cub Rich Harden (who will start on Saturday vs. the Giants, despite the headline on Bruce Miles' article that says "No word yet on Harden's first start") came out to left field to throw a few pitches in front of Larry Rothschild and a couple of his teammates:

Photo by Tim Shockley. As Tim said in his email: "We told him to take it easy and not throw so hard..." Amen. (Click on photo to open a larger version in a new browser window)

Finally, the Cubs picked up a game on both Milwaukee and St. Louis -- the Cardinals lost Mark Mulder again after 16 pitches, and the Brewers lost a pitching matchup (Ben Sheets vs. Glendon Rusch) that "on paper" was a no-brainer for them. But that's why they play the games. Today's pregame thread will be up at 11:30 am CDT.

Before I mention last night's wicked weather conditions, a little lesson, kiddies.

One is good. Two is funny. Three is still... mostly funny. Even one of the Cubs chimed in:

"I thought it was hilarious," Ryan Theriot said. "I thought it was awesome. I actually was hoping it would kind of continue."

Well, yeah, sort of, Ryan. Fifteen isn't funny. What am I talking about? The 15 baseballs that were thrown back from the bleachers and the street after Adam Dunn's monster home run onto Sheffield off Kevin Hart in the 8th inning of the Cubs' 12-3 win over the Reds last night. Some of those balls weren't that far from hitting Cubs outfielders in the head (I can just see Kosuke Fukudome looking at this spectacle and thinking, "What the heck have I gotten myself into?").

Beyond that, as Mike quickly mentioned, "Do you all want the score of this game to be 9-0?" (That's the official score of a forfeit game, if you didn't know.) I don't think it ever got quite that far, but that is an option for umpires if they think behavior in the stands has gotten so out of hand that the Cubs couldn't control it and the game couldn't continue.

The bottom line is -- have fun. But don't get stupid, especially on a night when the Cubs did practically everything right. It was the first blowout win of the season, on an night when the wind was blowing out at near-gale force (the "official" wind speed was 14 MPH, but it was far stronger than that most of the night; I'd estimate gusts at over 35 MPH, strong enough to send trash flying through the bleachers and for the Cubs to not even put the retired number flags and team standing flags up).

The Cubs took the lead in the first inning off Josh Fogg (whose ERA, a bad 7.00 coming in, jumped to 13.09 after he allowed the first nine runs), hitting three doubles and a single sandwiched around a HBP to Aramis Ramirez. That's been one of the best things about many of the Cubs' offensive outbursts this year so far -- they've been done without home runs. Of the 13 Cub hits last night, only one -- Derrek Lee's sixth of the year, matching his total from the entire first half of 2007, was a home run. Apart from that, they had six walks (including getting the bases loaded on walks in the 9th off Reds closer Francisco Cordero, scoring on Soto's groundout), seven singles and five doubles, including a double laced down the line by Carlos Zambrano, who had his first three hits of the year.

Z's double was in the 7th, after the Cubs had an 11-2 lead; we were all surprised to see him stay in the game on the bases, since it was obvious that Kevin Hart was going to come in the game anyway. Why risk getting Z hurt? I thought that with the wind blowing at gale force, Z would be trying to hit every ball into Lake Michigan, but he had really good at-bats in raising his season average to .250 (3-for-12). He now has 16 career doubles.

The Cubs also got good performances out of Ryan Theriot (two hits, raising his average to .280), Geovany Soto (only one hit, but it was a two-run double, and he drove in another run on a groundout), Kosuke Fukudome (does he EVER have a bad game? Two hits and two walks), and a two-run double from Mark DeRosa.

The booing for former Cubs Corey Patterson and manager Dusty Baker subsided a bit last night as people were much more interested in reveling about the Cubs' fine evening. They'll go for the sweep this afternoon, when it'll be a little less windy. I'll have a separate game thread up in about three hours. Finally, David and I have an all-Fukudome selection of photos this morning:

Top to bottom: Kosuke Fukudome throws a ball to the RF bleacher fans in the 1st inning; Fukudome rounding first base on his 1st-inning double; Fukudome making a catch up close and personal with Reed Johnson; Mike Fontenot's over the shoulder catch near Fukudome (latter two both in the sixth inning). Click on photo to open a larger version in a new browser window. Photos by David Sameshima