Really. Don't. Yes, the Cubs lost their fourth in a row, 9-7 to the Astros in 11 innings last night, the first time they've lost that many in a row at home since May 20-June 2, 2007 (one game to the White Sox, then a road trip, then six more home losses to Florida and Atlanta), ending on the day Lou had his famous hat-throwing tirade with umpire Mark Wegner in a loss to the Braves.

But. Thanks to the Mets' extra-inning win over the Brewers, the Cubs' lead stays at 4.5 games and the magic number was reduced to 20. Now, I did say I'd post it here once it got to 20, but it just doesn't feel right to do that after a loss like last night's. Win tonight, right the ship, and the number will appear on the right sidebar tomorrow.

Some are going to try to make comparisons between this losing streak -- the second four-game streak of the season -- and what happened to the 2004 Cubs in the final week, when they self-destructed while in the driver's seat to the wild card. Nothing of the sort is true. That dysfunctional team was too busy calling the broadcast booth and having poor managerial decisions made to win. The personnel is different -- only four players remain (Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano and Kerry Wood) and so is the manager.

What's happening to the Cubs this week is, I think, more comparable to what happened to the 2005 White Sox. That team was 87-51 on September 7 with a 9.5 game lead in the AL Central. With 24 games to go they had reduced their division magic number to 14. They then proceeded to lose... four in a row, and ten of 14, reducing their division lead to 1.5 games before righting their ship and ... well, you know what they did that October. The other difference is that when the Sox got cold, their pursuers, the Indians, suddenly were the hottest team in baseball -- from Sept. 5, 2005 through Sept. 24, they went 17-2, before dropping six of their last seven. You could also look at the 2006 Cardinals, who everyone remembers as "just" squeaking into the postseason with a mediocre 83-78 record. But they were 80-69 with a 7 game lead and a magic number of six with 13 games left. They lost seven in a row and eight of nine, reducing their lead to only a half game, before clinching on the last day of the season, and you all know what happened to them in the postseason.

I don't think the Cubs will have anything like that happen to them -- after all, the Brewers have also lost the first two games of their series at home -- so don't panic. I don't see the players or the manager panicking, and Lou says:

"Did anybody think this was going to be real easy?" Piniella said. "You didn't hear that from me all year, have you? We're in a stretch now where things aren't going our way. We've got to keep playing and keep battling and keep our confidence, and that's it."

Exactly. (Although, "You didn't hear that from me all year, have you?" isn't exactly the King's English.)

However.

I thought Lou made several dodgy managing decisions last night:

• Sending Bob Howry out again in a "keep it close" situation -- and he once again failed, allowing five straight Astros to reach base. Four of them scored, making the Cubs' comeback task very difficult. Presuming the Cubs do right the ship and make the playoffs, I suspect Howry pitched himself off the postseason roster last night.
• Double-switching Jim Edmonds, who had hit the game-tying HR in the 7th, out of the game, even though the Astros are virtually all right-handed out of their pen (save for Wesley Wright, who threw the 9th and 10th).
• Asking Mark DeRosa to sacrifice in the bottom of the ninth. DeRo has 12 career sac's, two this year, and he's having a career year and had already homered last night. Let the guy hit!
• Sending up Casey McGehee to pinch-hit in the 9th, making his major league debut in a critical situation like that. This led to a number of really lame "Casey At The Bat" jokes in our group, and had McGehee actually done something positive, lines from that poem might have led this recap. Instead... well, the Cubs' not-so-mighty Casey did exactly what the guy from Mudville did.
• Leaving both Carlos Marmol (35 pitches) and Kerry Wood (40 pitches) in to throw two innings each, assuring that neither of them will be available tonight. This was only the third time all year that Wood threw two innings, and it showed when he gave up the game-winning HR to Geoff Blum... the first extra-inning HR he had hit in his career (well, except for the one in this World Series game, speaking as we were of the 2005 White Sox), and only the second HR Wood had allowed all year.

I think Lou has been great for this franchise in many ways. But last night, I think his moves, and non-moves, may have helped cost the Cubs the game. Jon Lieber sat on a folding chair through all four hours and seventeen minutes, finally warming up as the Cubs made one last valiant attempt to tie the game off Jose Valverde in the last of the 11th. Why wasn't Lieber in the game earlier? In long games like this, a guy like Lieber, who throws efficiently and doesn't walk people, could have thrown three innings, saving Wood for tonight.

It wasn't all Lou's fault. The Cubs hit into four double plays, killing rallies in the 1st, 2nd, 5th and 8th innings -- and one was Derrek Lee's 25th GIDP of the season, two short of Ron Santo's team record set in 1973 and five short of Brad Ausmus' NL record set in 2002. Those are two records I'd rather see Lee NOT set. And even with all that, the offense, which had been absent most of the homestand, pounded out fifteen hits (four homers) and drew eight walks and the Cubs survived three errors by Aramis Ramirez, who is normally about as sure-handed as they come (not one of the errors led to any Houston scoring).

The game was not sold out -- a large chunk of empty seats were in the LF lower deck, and the attendance of 39,846 was the smallest since May 30. Still, the crowd brought the season total to 3,014,301, the earliest date the Cubs have passed the 3 million mark. Many had left by the time Blum's HR was hit, a little after 11 pm Central time.

So. Where do we go from here? Z's arm is bothering him again and he'll have it checked out today, and that cannot be good news. Ryan Dempster has to step up tonight and stop the streak right here. And remember these words from an old '60s song:

And I think it's gonna be all right
Yeah, the worst is over now
The mornin' sun is shinin' like a red rubber ball -- "Red Rubber Ball", The Cyrkle

Positive spin. Positive spin. Positive spin.

Oh, the heck with it. There is no positive spin you can put on today's depressing 3-0 Cub shutout loss to the Astros, the first shutout loss since... the last time the Astros were in town a month ago, when they blanked the Cubs and Ryan Dempster on Tornado Siren Night, a game shortened to eight innings by the storms that blew through. Today's sellout crowd, as well as the Cubs bats, were as quiet as those storms were loud.

Today's storm was Houston pitcher Roy Oswalt, who looked like the Oswalt who killed the Cubs back in 2004; Dave, Mike & I agreed that Oswalt's was the best pitching performance we had seen all year. Until he ran out of gas and gave up two hits in the ninth, two bouncy little singles, one by Geovany Soto, one by Ryan Theriot, were all the "offense" the Cubs could muster. They went walkless for the first time since... well, since I can remember, and checking a few boxscores for the last couple of months, I can't remember them going walkless since June.

It felt terrible. It felt depressing. It felt... well, I don't want to go there. Let's look at it this way: with the Mets beating the Brewers 4-2 today, the Cubs don't lose any ground and get another game taken off the schedule. (And though I hate to see anyone injured, if Ben Sheets has to miss any time with the groin injury he suffered today, the Brewers have trouble ahed.) Let's look at it this way: the Phillies, who came in and looked pretty solid all weekend, lost to a really bad Washington team and got no-hit for five innings today. And tomorrow, the Cubs face Brandon Backe, who isn't Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Zambrano will go -- pushed back only two days, so you can take off your tinfoil hat if you're worried about Z and any spin you might have put on the fact that he didn't throw yesterday.

Here's some positive spin: at least the Cubs showed some offensive life in the 9th inning, and had the wind not been blowing in, maybe Derrek Lee's warning-track fly ball would have made the basket (hey! could have been the first use of replay!) and the game would have been tied. Credit, too, to Alfonso Soriano for breaking up what could have been a game-ending DP ball hit by Kosuke Fukudome in that 9th inning with a nice rolling slide, at least giving D-Lee a chance. Soriano also made one catch today without bunny-hopping; instead he did his best imitation of a stork, standing on one leg while catching Darin Erstad's fly ball in the 7th.

And give credit to the Astros, who are 25-10 since July 26, and have done virtually all of that without Carlos Lee, who has been out since August 9.

More positive spin: Jason Marquis did a nice job today, throwing six innings, allowing five hits and striking out eight, the most K's he's had in a game in more than three years, dropping his ERA to 4.46. And although Jeff Samardzija wild-pitched in the third run, he and the just-recalled Michael Wuertz kept the game close.

Speaking of today's recalls, I did not know before reading Koyie Hill had severed most of the fingers on his right hand, his throwing hand, last offseason in a table saw accident. Credit to him for working hard to keep playing and to make it back to the major leagues, even for a September callup, and I think it'd be great if he had even one contribution to the Cubs' playoff run.

Playoff run. Remember that? Do you? It's still going. Even though the Cubs have lost three in a row at home for the first time all season, there is plenty of time left and do not forget that this is a damn good team and they have many more wins left in them, for this month... and next. We'll get 'em tomorrow.

That was what BCB reader San Diego Smooth Jazz Man text-messaged me right after the Cubs' 7-6 win over the Padres, their eighth in a row, ended last night just after midnight Central time.

This was far too late for me; I made it through four innings and then went to sleep. (In fact, I can't believe the phone beep from the text message didn't wake me up, as the phone was right next to me -- I really must have been out cold.)

In any case, yes, Carlos Marmol, showing signs of overwork, gave up a three-run homer to Adrian Gonzalez (raising the question: why wasn't Scott Eyre or Neal Cotts in the game in the 9th, instead of your premier setup man), making what appeared to be an easy win into a close game and forcing Lou to summon Kerry Wood to save the game for the fifth time during this winning streak. Wood's 15 saves now rank second in the National League, tied with Jose Valverde of Houston, one behind Brian Wilson of the Giants. This has prompted Lou to again bring up the idea of a 13th pitcher on the staff.

To which I say: don't do it, Lou. Yes, starters need to go consistently deeper into games, and we all knew Z wasn't going to do that last night after his 130-pitch outing last Wednesday, and especially, Paul Sullivan writes, after his histrionics early in last night's game:

After the Cubs scored on a wild pitch in the second, Zambrano got two quick outs before walking Jody Gerut. He leaped off the mound like Pete Townshend at a Who concert, prompting Piniella to make his first visit of the night.

Zambrano calmed down, relatively speaking. When he tripled to the gap in right-center in the fourth, tying the game at 3-3 with his first triple since 2005, Zambrano chugged into third, pumped his first and let out a primal scream.

Bringing another pitching body on board would likely mean either Mike Fontenot or Micah Hoffpauir would be sent to Iowa (Gordon Wittenmyer says it'd be Hoffpauir), leaving the bench as: Henry Blanco, whoever isn't playing CF (Jim Edmonds or Reed Johnson), Ronny Cedeno and the one of Hoffpauir or Fontenot who isn't sent down. That just isn't a deep enough bench, especially with the number of comeback wins and extra-inning games this team has played.

The rant and complaint department is now closed. How can you complain about yet another comeback win? Z got hit hard in the first inning but shut the Padres down after that, and so did the bullpen until Marmol in the 9th. Z also had his second game of the year in which he's had three or more hits; he is now hitting .366 with a .537 SLG and an OPS+ of 130. Just for comparison's sake, since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941, the most at-bats by anyone who hit .400 or more in a season is 134, by Bob "Hurricane" Hazle for the 1957 Milwaukee Braves. Z has an outside shot at being a .400 hitter with maybe 100 at-bats (he now has 41). And this in a year when the same Braves' Chipper Jones enters today hitting .407.

And... those of us who said Jim Edmonds was D-O-N-E... well, we just might be wrong. Edmonds had two more doubles yesterday and is now hitting .286/.324/.543 in 12 games with 7 RBI. This would make him a more-than-acceptable platoon partner with Reed Johnson. With a lefthander (Wil Ledezma) going tonight, it's likely Edmonds will sit, and Lou also says he's giving Kosuke Fukudome the day off to spend with his wife and baby son, just arrived in the USA from Japan. So expect Johnson in CF, Mark DeRosa in RF, and Ronny Cedeno at 2B, an all-right-handed lineup tonight.

About streaks... the only winning streaks the Cubs have had since 1945 (when they won 11 in a row from July 1-12) that are longer than eight games were a 10-gamer from April 14-27, 1970, and a 12-gamer from May 19-June 2, 2001.

Let's add to that list tonight. Onward in this exceptional baseball season.