With two deals made yesterday -- Matt Holliday to the A's, and Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals, and Jake Peavy... still a Padre a this writing, the trade market appears to be heating up, and on Thursday, declared free agents will be eligible to sign with any team.

One interesting development overnight was the Padres' withdrawal of a $4 million offer to Trevor Hoffman. Granted, Hoffman is 41 and didn't have such a good year in 2008, but he is a franchise icon and that offer was about half what he made in '08. Whether this is another part of San Diego's cost-cutting in the wake of owner John Moores' costly divorce, or whether it's a harbinger of things to come -- will teams start to rein in spending because of the current economic crisis? -- remains to be seen.

What seems clear is that the Cubs aren't going to be major players in the free agent market. Much as we might like to see CC Sabathia in blue pinstripes, it's not going to happen. The only free agents the Cubs are likely to sign are their own -- Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood and Henry Blanco, I believe, will all eventually re-up. Daryle Ward may not be back, and Chad Fox and Jon Lieber -- well, yes, they filed, but you didn't really expect to see them as Cubs again, did you?

So instead, Jim Hendry is going to have to get creative. With the Marlins dealing Willingham, does that mean Jeremy Hermida is off the market? I would argue that the Cubs might be able to get him with a package that could include Felix Pie and Sean Marshall. This is pure speculation on my part, and likely they'd have to put another prospect in such a deal, but Pie would be an immediate starter in Florida and Marshall would replace the traded Scott Olsen in the Marlins' rotation.

With Hermida on board and Kosuke Fukudome likely then moving to CF as a platoon partner for Reed Johnson, that would complete the Cubs' starting outfield for 2009. I would still like to see the Cubs sign Kevin Millar to back up LF, RF and 1B... and to be that clubhouse presence that was missing, somehow, during the disastrous 2008 postseason. Yes, I am well aware that Millar is getting on in years and didn't have a very good offensive season in 2008 (despite hitting 20 HR in 531 AB and drawing 71 walks, which would have ranked among the Cubs' team leaders). The Cubs wouldn't be asking Millar to start -- just back up, and provide the looseness that any winning clubhouse needs. Since Hermida would be the starting LH bat in RF, having Millar replace Daryle Ward as the #1 pinch-hitter would be acceptable. At one time I advocated trading Derrek Lee, but after seeing some of the discussions here which mentioned that his neck and back problems may have been the cause of his power dropoff, I would think that an offseason's rest would get him back into shape. He'll probably never have a year like he had in 2005, but even if he could get back to his 2004 level (.860 OPS), that'd be just fine.

With Sean Marshall gone, the Cubs would need another pitcher to perform the role that Marshall did quite well last year -- start occasionally and be a long reliever... that is, if Lou even knows how to use a long reliever, something he failed to do in many situations that called for it. There are some mid-range starting pitcher free agents that could fill this role without costing a fortune: Randy Wolf, Mark Hendrickson, or even Freddy Garcia, who started for Lou for several years in Seattle and who appeared recovered from his arm troubles in pitching five strong innings in that September 29 Tigers/White Sox makeup game at the Cell.

Filling the slot being vacated by the (presumably) departed Bob Howry should be fairly simple to do, either via someone on this list of free-agent relievers (would you take a chance on bringing back some former Cubs like Juan Cruz or Kyle Farnsworth?) or perhaps, by someone who will come out of spring training and surprise. There seems to be someone like that virtually every year. Or maybe Michael Wuertz will finally fulfill the promise that has had him as part of the Cubs' bullpen for the last five seasons.

The rest of the team seems fairly well set; regardless of whether you agree with him or not, Lou likes Ryan Theriot and he will be the starting SS, unless there's someone who could come in cheaply to replace him. One possibility could be Juan Uribe -- and if Uribe didn't start, he could capably back up all three infield positions. Ronny Cedeno did a decent job as a backup in 2008, and if he came into 2009 in the same role, I think we could live with it. Another possibility is Nate Spears, who the Cubs acquired almost as an afterthought from the Orioles in the Corey Patterson deal three years ago. Spears will be 24 in May, had an .832 OPS in Double-A last year and as of today is replicating that (.827) in the Arizona Fall League. He hits lefthanded and has a good glove. Spears isn't on the 40-man roster, which now stands at 39, but that can be easily remedied.

The bottom line is that I don't think the Cubs are getting Jake Peavy, and that's fine with me. Peavy's numbers outside of Petco don't scream "ace" to me, and his contract, four years' worth, would hamstring the team in an era when some here are screaming for Hendry to dump some of the backloaded deals he's handed out like Halloween candy over the last couple of years. The Cubs ought to also look hard at whoever is available in the Rule 5 draft and also at the non-tender list when it comes out in the middle of December.

As I said last time I posted on this topic, this team won 97 games a year ago. There's no need to blow it up and start over. Tweaking, upgrading the bench and bullpen, and making sure the starting rotation has backups in case of injury, are the most important things.

For those of you screaming and yelling about the alleged possibility that Bud Selig is going to "install" John Canning as Cubs owner, I refer you to this November 7 article from the Sun-Times:

Bidders for the team include Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and the cable channel HDNet, and Thomas Ricketts, president of corporate bond dealer Incapital LLC. An insider said Ricketts, whose family wealth derives from the TD Ameritrade brokerage, currently has the inside track.

Cuban has a colorful reputation and drinks beer in the stands with the fans, but the source said the credit drought has hurt his chances. "Whatever the price for the Cubs, he was only going to put in $100 million of his own money," the source said.

And that last part is why Cuban might be out, not any supposed enmity from Bud Selig and/or Jerry Reinsdorf. I agree with the article: if the sale is consummated soon, it'll be the Ricketts group. But given the state of the economy, who knows?

This is the one you've all been waiting for -- the thoughts I have about what sort of 25-man roster, including position players, pitching rotation and bullpen I think the Cubs should put on the field in 2009. I'm also going to make a comment or two on the coaching staff, which by and large did a fine job in 2008 (well, at least until October 1, they did). This is a long post, so I'm going to make you click through to read the rest, rather than show about 3,500 words on the front page. (You're about to find out why this took me so long!)

Continue reading this post »

When Mike Jacobs' second homer of the day (and yes, it was definitely a HR, the umpires got it right -- it hit off the concrete facing behind the basket, above the yellow line) left the Yard in the third inning, making the score 5-0 Marlins and you could hear the sound of anguished wrist-slitting all over Wrigleyville, I was contemplating how I'd write up a recap of what appeared to be the makings of another mess of a game, and was thinking I'd write a couple of sentences and shut the computer down -- if I even could; when I left my house my cable was completely out and I had no TV, phone or internet service.

About two hours later, Jeff Samardzija had his first major league save and the Cubs had a come-from-behind 9-6 win over the Marlins, not a moment too soon, and that, combined with the Astros' 11-6 win over the Brewers (and when Houston's seven-run fifth inning was posted on the Wrigley Field scoreboard, a huge cheer rippled through the crowd of 41,017), put the Cubs back in first place by a game, awaiting the four-game showdown with the Brewers in Milwaukee starting tomorrow.

Dave said to me when Samardzija came into the game in the 8th and started mowing down Marlins hitters, "He could do for the Cubs what Bobby Jenks did for the 2005 White Sox", and I think that's an apt comparison -- although Jenks, of course, became the closer, and Samardzija won't (unless some really strange things happen). But the Shark could take over a key setup role and it's clear already that Lou trusts him in a game situation. Today, Samardzija seemed more in control of himself -- wasn't overthrowing, the fastest pitch I saw on the ballpark speed meter was 95, and he threw strikes again (16 in 25 pitches). The game ended on a throwback play, Jim Edmonds laying flat-out like he was ten years younger, and catching Jorge Cantu's line drive into the left-center field gap. (Did you ever think you'd hear a standing ovation like that one for Jim Edmonds? At Wrigley Field? Told you this was one special season.)

The game began to turn when Alfonso Soriano tied it with a three-run homer in the fourth. And even though Jason Marquis coughed it right back with a HR allowed to Dan Uggla -- the eighth hit in the series by the Marlins -- give credit to Marquis for eating up innings again. He managed to finish six innings on a warm, though not too humid, afternoon, saving most of the bullpen. And in that sixth inning, we were sitting in LF shaking our heads at Ryan Theriot again, as he just didn't quite have the range or arm to throw out Hanley Ramirez on a grounder to deep short. But then, Theriot followed that with a diving stop and flip on Jeremy Hermida's ball that looked like it was going up the middle, and Mark DeRosa nearly turned it into the slickest DP of the year (WEB GEM!). When Cantu hit into a DP to end the inning, it seemed to energize the Cubs, though it took them one more inning to break through against Mark Hendrickson.

Derrek Lee homered to tie the game. But the key plays came later, when Hendrickson threw a wild pitch while pinch-hitter Daryle Ward was at bat. That prompted Fredi Gonzalez to order Ward intentionally walked (how many times have you seen a pinch-intentional walk?), loading the bases for the Wonder Hamster.

I still can't figure out how a guy that small hits the ball that far. I said to my son Mark (now with a 9-1 record), "You're almost as tall as Fontenot!" (He is, too: 5-2, at almost 13.) His double over Josh Willingham's head cleared the bases and won the game. And though it had no effect on the final score, Fontenot's heads-up baserunning play on Soriano's subsequent grounder to third prolonged the inning for one more batter.

Must-win? No. But "important win"? Definitely, and it'll put the Cubs in a good frame of mind for the series starting tomorrow night (can you figure out the Astros? They take two of three from the Cubs at home, two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee, and in between get swept by the Pirates).

Finally, a little musical interlude, prompted by watching Scott Eyre get up ... and sit down ... and get up ... and sit down ... at least that many times in the bullpen today, without getting into the game. In fact, since being activated on Wednesday, Eyre has warmed up every day without ever getting into a game, even the 12-inning game yesterday. So with apologies to the Kingston Trio, here is "Scotty Never Got To Play":

Let me tell you the story
Of a man named Scotty
On this and every day
He put on his uniform,
Went out to the bullpen
But he never got to play

Scotty got the call
From the man in the dugout
So he threw a few baseballs
But when he thought he'd go in,
"Sit on down, Scotty!"
Scotty couldn't get in the game

Chorus:
Did he ever return,
No he never returned
And his fate is still unlearned
He may sit forever
On that bullpen bench
He's the man who never returned.

Because wallowing in the detritus of today's 3-2 Cub loss to the Marlins would probably make us feel a lot worse than we already do, I'm going to try to put a positive spin on events, and give you some good news (before discussing the things that brought us to yet another loss to Florida, the 19th in the 31 games between the two teams since the 2003 NLCS).

First, rumor heard today: Kerry Wood may throw an inning in a rehab assignment for Peoria at Wrigley Field on Tuesday (there! if you haven't jumped on the bandwagon to see that game, there's a reason to -- and here I'll use this space to make a shameless plug for the two field box seats I have available, section 110, row 2, price $15 each. Email me using the link on the left sidebar if you want 'em).

Second, Rich Harden threw five outstanding innings again today, allowing only two hits and again, the only run he allowed was on a solo HR. His ten strikeouts give him that many or more in all three of his Cub starts. Now, here's where we begin to discuss the problems: if Harden is to have value to this team, he's going to have to start going deeper into games. In the postgame press conference, Harden said he had been limited today because of the number of pitches he threw in his last outing. But 87 pitches? If you're going to get only five or six innings out of Harden, the bullpen is going to be overtaxed.

Which is why it was gratifying to see Sean Marshall come out of the pen and throw three good innings. Unfortunately, the only hit Marshall allowed was Jeremy Hermida's second HR of the game, which, as the first one off Harden did, tied the game. Marshall also singled and is now 3-for-6 at the plate this year. But he was erased on a double play ball.

Next... well, there is no next. The Cubs couldn't do anything with six Marlins pitchers; the only runs scored on a RBI single by Aramis Ramirez in the first inning and A-Ram's 18th HR of the year in the third. After that, for the next nine innings the Cubs had only three singles, including Marshall's. You can't win this way -- the pitching staff has been very, very good the last three days, giving the Marlins three runs each day. A good team should win with that sort of output from its pitching staff. Now, I think the Cubs are a good team, that happens to be in a hitting slump at the worst possible time. Ramirez seemed to be coming out of it today, but he went out meekly his last three times up. Derrek Lee hit a loud double in the first, but nothing after that. Ryan Theriot was 0-for-5, and so was Alfonso Soriano. Kosuke Fukudome singled twice and walked, which is great, but with a chance to get on base for Daryle Ward (who would have batted for Chad Gaudin), he struck out to end the game. The two teams combined for 31 strikeouts today on one of the nicest weather days of the year, with the wind blowing in (that held Dan Uggla's 10th-inning fly ball in the park, as it turned out simply prolonging the agony). Before the game Dominic DiAngi, the 8-year-old (today being his birthday) who was injured by a foul ball off the bat of Ted Lilly, was invited back to throw out a ceremonial first pitch to Lilly. Lilly stood in front of the plate, but DiAngi's father waved him back behind the plate, at which time the kid threw the ball over Lilly's head. Ted caught it to a loud ovation.

Note: replays showed Mark DeRosa was indeed out at first base (and probably would have been safe had he just run through the play instead of sliding) on the 9th-inning play in which 1B coach Matt Sinatro (who almost never argues) and Lou were both tossed by umpire Rob Drake, a vacation-replacement guy who seems to take pleasure and pride in doing things that will get him on SportsCenter (this crew was at the Cell last week and Drake tossed Ozzie Guillen during that series). Drake had to move to first base when crew chief Gerry Davis was injured in the 2nd inning on a ball that wasn't handled by Marlins catcher John Baker, and Bruce Dreckman moved behind the place.

The bullpen was pretty good today, apart from Marshall allowing the HR to Hermida and Gaudin giving up the winning run in the 12th inning -- on a rally started on a two-out double by Hermida that just landed fair down the left field line. This after one more positive -- Reed Johnson throwing out pinch-hitter Robert Andino at 2B trying to stretch a single into a double. And Scott Eyre still warms up, dutifully, every day, and never gets used by Lou. Question: if Lou's not going to use Eyre, why is he on the team?

One thing that might make you feel better is to look at the "Best Starts By Cub Teams Since 1900" box that I update after every game. Despite going 3-6 since the All-Star break, this team is keeping pace with those other teams (of course, far behind teams like the 1906 and 1907 teams that ran away with the NL pennant). They currently sport precisely the same record that the 1984 team did after 104 games -- 60-44 (in fact, after the 104th game in 1984 -- oddly, a 12-inning loss, 2-1 to the Phillies, the '84 Cubs were 2nd, 1/2 game out of first place). That team got hot in early August and won 96 games. I'm not saying this Cub team will do that, but it's far too early to panic.

Also, I know it doesn't matter. Iknowitdoesn'tmatterBUT -- the W/L record by TV channel is getting a bit ridiculous. For those of you outside of Chicago who only see the Cubs on WGN, not on CSN, you're probably wondering when they ever win. They're now 19-22 on WGN, 34-16 on CSN. (Tomorrow's game is on CSN.)

And so, Jason Marquis needs to eat up some innings tomorrow -- he's actually pretty good at that, having gone at least seven in four of his last six starts -- and more importantly, these guys have to score some runs.

Till then, GO ASTROS GO.

There, I said it.

I'm sorry, but no matter what his veteran status, how many times management can say, "Well, he'll come around", how many dollars are left on his contract -- how many times can we sit here and watch Howry, who at one time was a premier setup man, blow game after game (or take blowout game and force a closer into the 9th inning, as he did at Arizona on Wednesday)?

There are only two choices: find out if he's really hurt (or make up an injury) and put him on the DL, or DFA him, which would mean the possibility of making a trade (bad as Howry has been, there may be a team or two who would take him), or just releasing him.

Not that today's depressing 3-2 Cub loss to the Marlins is all on Howry's head, either, but he's the most convenient target, because he's the one who gave up the winning run, Jeremy Hermida's pinch-hit HR leading off the top of the 9th. No, there's plenty of blame to go around:

Case #1: Jeff Samardzija. It's been said many times on this site and elsewhere that no one can quite figure him out. And after seeing him throw 31 pitches -- 23 for strikes -- in two innings, I still can't figure him out. He's got a funky delivery that can send a pitch to the plate at up to 99 MPH. Or, more correctly, can send a pitch to within the vicinity of the plate; he threw a couple to the backstop, one of which would have been a wild pitch (about fifteen feet over anyone's head back there), except that Hanley Ramirez had broken for second on the pitch and got credit for a stolen base. Then he almost got out of the inning, but Jorge Cantu's ball slithered down the LF line just out of Aramis Ramirez' reach for a game-tying RBI double.

That was the first of two innings Samardzija threw -- coming in and leaving to a large ovation, which I thought was pretty overdone for a kid who's been a pro baseball player for a year and a half. This ain't Notre Dame football any more, people. To be fair, Samardzija, as Dave said to me, had to be pretty "amped" in that first inning. In his second inning of work, he retired the side 1-2-3 and had a nice K of Cody Ross. He's got a chance to be a real good pitcher if he can harness his command -- think of him as Kyle Farnsworth with a brain.

Case #2: Ryan Dempster. Sure, Dempster gave up only one run and two hits in six innings. But the six walks ran up his pitch count so he had to be taken out after six, and he hit Dan Uggla leading off the 2nd, which led to the only run he allowed when Josh Willingham followed with a double. Stuff like that always seems to come back and haunt a team.

Case #3: Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee and Kosuke Fukudome, the heart of the order, went 1-for-12 today and stranded a bunch of runners, as did Alfonso Soriano -- Soriano could have broken the 2-2 tie in the 8th, with two RISP, but he popped up. These are the guys who are being paid to drive in runs. D-Lee, in particular, has been disappointing recently, although his single in the 5th could have scored Soriano. Me, I think I'd have held Soriano at third, leaving the bases loaded for Ramirez, though Dave disagreed with me ("send him with two out, it took a perfect throw from Willingham", which is true). Fukudome's looking particularly lost at the plate, and the Cubs, rumor has it, might be seeking a RH-hitting platoon partner for him.

So blame Howry. Absolutely. But also blame the offense; the Cubs had ten hits and five walks today and stranded eleven, including RISP in the 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. You can't win that way, and although five Marlins relievers did their job, I don't think they're that good. If the Cubs are to be the playoff team we think they are and want them to be, they have to win games like this.

Oh, and despite the statement made at the season ticket lunch the other day -- that the "L" flag was to be retired immediately -- it did fly above the scoreboard after today's loss. Good, I say. While changing the loser mentality is absolutely the right thing to do, the "L" flag doesn't say "we are losers". All it says is, "We lost the game today", telling people riding by on the L or walking through the neighborhood, people who might not, later in the evening when the crowd has all gone home, even know there had been a home game that day.

Enough. Onward to tomorrow; Rich Harden was acquired to be a co-ace with Carlos Zambrano. He's pitched well enough to earn that tag. Now let's get him a win.