About three weeks ago, I posted about Colin Wyers' efforts to organize community projections for the 2009 Cubs.

photo via mlb.mlb.com

Many of you went to this easy form that Colin posted to enter your projections. However, based on these interim results (link opens Excel spreadsheet), it appears that a lot of people didn't get past Geovany Soto (the first name in the dropdown list), since Soto has far more people projecting him (82) than the next closest player (Derrek Lee, 52).

So, if you went there and didn't put in your projections for anyone but Geo, please go back and add your numbers for other players (use the drop-down list, and don't forget to hit "Submit" when you're done). Or, if you haven't done this yet, please add your projections -- the larger the number of projections we have, the better the projection will be.

Thanks. I'll post another update as the season gets closer, when I get more data from Colin. Oh, and I thought I'd throw another Gratuitous Geo Photo into this post. You're welcome.

Colin Wyers, who is one of the most knowledgeable posters we have at BCB regarding statistical analysis, has devised a system that will make it much easier to make projections for the 2009 Cubs. All you have to do is click on this link and input your projections for as many players as you want. For now, it's only for hitters; Colin promises a similar form for pitchers soon. Here are the simple instructions he emailed me:

• Fields with an asterisk are required; fields without an asterisk are not.
• Only project as many players as you are confident in.
• You do not have to look at any computer-based projection systems before hand. We are deliberately seeking human input here.
• Remember that these are median forecasts - we're projecting the most likely estimate here, where the truth is likely to hover around that.
• These forecasts are for a player's time as a Cub only - if you anticipate a player being traded away before the season starts, just put a 0 into everything.

Thanks in advance for your projections. I'll post results as soon as there is a large enough sample to make them meaningful.

It appears that the preseason project wasn't quite finished -- I only have final projection numbers for four pitchers, though I know we did three relievers as well as Jason Marquis and Jon Lieber.

Here are the four we did. If anyone would like to go through the Community Projections section and tabulate the others, I'll post the rest of them tomorrow.

Carlos Zambrano

Projected:
G 34, GS 33, IP 221.2, H 172, ER 80, BB 89, SO 203, W 19, L 8,
ERA 3.26, WHIP 1.18

Actual:
G 30, GS 30, IP 188.2, H 172, ER 82, BB 72, SO 130, W 14, L 6,
ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.29

COMMENT: Z missed some time on the DL and had his lowest start and inning total since he became a regular rotation starter in 2003. Still, extrapolate the numbers over four more starts (say, winning three of them) and this projection wasn't too far off.

Ted Lilly

Projected:
G 32, GS 32, IP 201.2, H 186, ER 90, BB 67, SO 170, W 14, L 10,
ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.26

Actual:
G 34, GS 34, IP 204.2, H 187, ER 93, BB 64, SO 184, W 17, L 9,
ERA 4.09, WHIP 1.23

COMMENT: Stand up and be proud of this one. We missed the W-L record, but everything else -- dead on.

Rich Hill

Projected:
G 33, GS 33, IP 202.2, H 169, ER 81, BB 66, SO 197, W 15, L 9,
ERA 3.61, WHIP 1.16

Actual:
G 5, GS 5, IP 19.2, H 18, ER 9, BB 18, SO 15, W 1, L 0,
ERA 4.12, WHIP 1.58

COMMENT: Obviously, no one anticipated Hill's utter meltdown and banishment to the minor leagues. The actual line doesn't look all that bad -- except for the walks, which is the reason the Cubs lost patience with him. He still hasn't gotten it back; he had one good start in winter ball and then had to be taken out of his second start with -- what else? -- control problems.

Ryan Dempster

Projected:
G 39, GS 18, IP 122, H 124, ER 64, BB 64, SO 99, W 6, L 8,
SV 1, ERA 4.73, WHIP 1.54

Actual:
G 33, GS 33, IP 206.2, H 174, ER 68, BB 76, SO 187, W 17, L 6,
SV 0, ERA 2.96, WHIP 1.21

COMMENT: Quite a number of people thought Dempster would wind up back in the bullpen, thus the low start projection and the one projected save. I was one of those people, projecting him to have 15 starts, 35 relief appearances and 7 wins, 7 losses and 7 saves. I couldn't be happier to have been wrong.

Again, we also did Jason Marquis, Jon Lieber, Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood. If someone would like to total up the projections (use the link above to go to the Community Projections section) and send them to me, I'll post the rest of the pitcher projection review tomorrow.

Since 2006 here at BCB we have been projecting various Cubs would do during the upcoming season. This is a two-part review of how we did for 2008; today, focusing on hitters.

As you will see, some were good... and some were way off.

NOTE! Some people have reported that the boxes with the numbers are cut off by the sidebar in certain browsers. If this happens to you, enter the comment page -- it should look better there.

Geovany Soto

Projection:
AB: 469 R: 62 H: 132 2B: 25 3B: 1 HR: 18 RBI: 73  BB: 47 SO: 95
AVG: .281 OBA: .346 SLG: .455 

Actual:
AB: 494 R: 66 H: 141 2B: 35 3B: 2 HR: 23 RBI: 86 BB: 62 SO: 121
AVG: .285 OBA: .364 SLG: .504

COMMENT: Give yourselves a virtual pat on the back; we underestimated Geo's power, but got the rest of it pretty close. He struck out more than we thought, but also walked more. This is an excellent projection for someone's first full season.

Derrek Lee

Projected:
AB: 565 R: 99 H: 174 2B: 41 3B: 3 HR: 30 RBI: 99 BB: 73 SO: 110
AVG: .308 OBA: .387 SLG: .549

Actual:
AB: 623 R: 93 H: 181 2B: 41 3B: 3 HR: 20 RBI: 90 BB: 71 SO: 119
AVG: .291 OBA: .361 SLG: .462

COMMENT: Again, not too bad, except we overestimated D-Lee's home runs, which made the SLG estimate too high.

Mark DeRosa

Projected:
AB: 493 R: 69 H: 145 2B: 29 3B: 2 HR: 11 RBI: 69 BB: 53 SO: 89
AVG: .294 OBA: .333 SLG: .428

Actual:
AB: 505 R: 103 H: 144 2B: 30 3B: 3 HR: 21 RBI: 87 BB: 69 SO: 106
AVG: .285 OBA: .376 SLG: .481

COMMENT: DeRo had a career year, although we got the hits, doubles and triples close to right on. His increased HR and BB totals account for the difference in OBA and SLG.

Ryan Theriot

Projected:
AB: 434 R: 66 H: 118 2B: 26 3B: 3 HR: 3 RBI: 40 BB: 44 SO: 44
AVG: .271 OBA: .339 SLG: .363

Actual:
AB: 580 R: 85 H: 178 2B: 19 3B: 4 HR: 1 RBI: 38 BB: 73 SO: 58
AVG: .307 OBA: .387 SLG: .359

COMMENT: Many people thought Theriot would play himself out of the lineup, which accounts for our low AB total. Strangely, although Theriot's almost complete lack of power is the thing that most people criticize about his offense, we projected more doubles and homers than he actually had. No one forecast the increased walk total.

Aramis Ramirez

Projected:
AB: 555 R: 95 H: 173 2B: 38 3B: 2 HR: 38 RBI: 121 BB: 54 SO: 69
AVG: .312 OBA: .372 SLG: .591

Actual:
AB: 554 R: 97 H: 160 2B: 44 3B: 1 HR: 27 RBI: 111 BB: 74 SO: 94
AVG: .289 OBA: .380 SLG: 518

COMMENT: A-Ram's homer total was down, but he hit more doubles. His average was down; all of that lowered his SLG somewhat. His career-high walk total resulted in a career-best .380 OBA.

Alfonso Soriano

Projected:
AB: 625 R: 111 H: 182 2B: 41 3B: 4 HR: 39 RBI: 91 BB: 43 SO: 143
SB: 22 CS: 8 AVG: .291 OBA: .336 SLG: .555

Actual:
AB: 453 R: 76 H: 127 2B: 27 3B: 0 HR: 29 RBI: 75 BB: 43 SO: 103
SB: 19 CS: 3 AVG: .280 OBA: .344 SLG: .532

Actual, extrapolated to 625 AB:
AB: 625 R: 105 H: 175 2B: 37 3B: 0 HR: 40 RBI: 103 BB: 59 SO: 142
SB: 26 CS: 4 AVG: .280 OBA: .344 SLG: .532

COMMENT: Soriano missed 52 games, so above I extrapolated our projection to the 625 projected AB we thought he'd have (that's two more AB than Derrek Lee had for 155 games). That's pretty close.

Felix Pie

Projected:
AB: 479 R: 68 H: 127 2B: 26 3B: 6 HR: 10 RBI: 52 BB: 35 SO: 106 SB: 21 CS: 7
AVG: .266 OBA: .315 SLG: .411

Actual:
AB: 83 R: 9 H: 20 2B: 2 3B: 1 HR: 1 RBI: 10 BB: 7 SO: 29 SB: 3 CS: 0
AVG: .241 OBA: .312 SLG: .325

Jim Edmonds' Cub numbers:
AB: 250 R: 47 H: 64 2B: 17 3B: 2 HR: 19 RBI: 49 BB: 45 SO: 58 SB: 0 CS: 1
AVG: .256 OBA: .369 SLG: .568

COMMENT: Obviously, this was one of our worst projections, as Pie spent most of the year at Iowa. Combine these two stat lines and you get pretty close to what we thought Pie would do alone, although with more HR. walks and strikeouts and, obviously, fewer steals.

Kosuke Fukudome

Projected:
AB: 568 R: 92 H: 169 2B: 39 3B: 5 HR: 19 RBI: 88 BB: 72 SO: 99
AVG: .297 OBA: .376 SLG: .481

Actual:
AB: 501 R: 79 H: 129 2B: 25 3B: 3 HR: 10 RBI: 58 BB: 81 SO: 104
AVG: .258 OBA: .359 SLG: .379

COMMENT: We, along with Cub management, seriously overestimated Dome's potential. Only the walks came close. If Fukudome is to be worth the money left on his deal, he's going to have to come closer to our 2008 projection in 2009 (and if he does, that'd solve a number of Cub problems).

Tomorrow: pitchers.

The projection series is now ended -- we did eight position players, six possible starters, and the three Closer Candidates.

Here are the final projections for the first four starters we did:

Carlos Zambrano:

G 34
GS 33
IP 221.2
H 172
ER 80
BB 89
SO 203
W 19
L 8
ERA 3.26
WHIP 1.18

Ted Lilly:

G 32
GS 32
IP 201.2
H 186
ER 90
BB 67
SO 170
W 14
L 10
ERA 4.01
WHIP 1.26

Rich Hill:

G 33
GS 33
IP 202.2
H 169
ER 81
BB 66
SO 197
W 15
L 9
ERA 3.61
WHIP 1.16

Ryan Dempster:

G 39
GS 18
IP 122
H 124
ER 64
BB 64
SO 99
W 6
L 8
ERA 4.73
WHIP 1.54
(also an average of 1 save)

The calculated numbers may not totally match due to rounding (I rounded decimal fractions of innings to thirds). I'll get the rest of these posted as soon as cwyers gets all the numbers into the spreadsheet.

This will be the last in the community projection series; we've done eight position players, six starter candidates and three relievers, for a total of 17 of the likely 25-man roster.

Howry does, I suppose, still have a chance to be "The" closer. More likely, he'll be one of the better setup men in the National League again; I say he gets a handful of saves just due to game circumstances.

G 77
GF 15
IP 82
H 75
ER 29
BB 16
SO 70
W 5
L 5
SV 5
ERA 3.18
WHIP 1.11

Bob Howry's career stats at baseball-reference.com

You make the call: will the man with the filthy slider become the 9th inning pitcher, the "Closer"? Or will he continue to put out fires in the 7th or 8th innings?

I say he's much more valuable to the team in the setup role, and will become one of the top setup men in the National League in 2008.

G 70
GF 10
IP 85
H 60
ER 12
BB 36
SO 118
W 4
L 0
SV 2
SVOPP 3
ERA 1.27
WHIP 1.13

Carlos Marmol's career stats at baseball-reference.com

We've gone through virtually all of the starting rotation candidates -- though I may add Sean Gallagher and Kevin Hart later, depending on how likely/unlikely it is that either will have a shot at the rotation.

So let's examine the three Closer Candidates. We'll begin with Kerry Wood, who is trying to reinvent his career with a shift to closing, something he seems well suited for both stuff-wise and temperament-wise.

I'm going to say right now that I think Wood will win the Closer Derby -- both for the reasons stated above, and also because I think Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol are both more valuable to the Cubs as setup men. Wood will drive us nuts at times, and might have a few spectacular blown saves. But I also believe he will get the job done.

For closers, use all the same categories as starters, except use GF (games finished) instead of GS (games started), and add SV and SVOPP.

G 70
GF 60
IP 73
H 58
ER 28
BB 37
SO 80
W 2
L 3
SV 31
SVOPP 35
ERA 3.45
WHIP 1.30

Kerry Wood's career stats at baseball-reference.com