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Interviews

An Evening With Michael Barrett

Last night at Gino's East on E. Superior in Chicago, the Cubs' Michael Barrett took photographs with fans (as you see above) and signed autographs, and in addition, there was a silent auction of autographed memorabilia from just about every member of this year's Cubs team (I myself am now the proud owner of a Jason Marquis signed ball). This was all for a very good cause, Project 3000, the foundation begun by Derrek Lee and Boston Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck to fight Lebers Congenital Amaurosis or LCA, a disease which is robbing their daughters of their eyesight.

At the end of the evening I was able to sit down (well, actually, stand up, as he had been sitting for much of the evening) and ask Michael a few questions.

BCB: To what do you attribute the success of the pitching staff so far this year?

MB: I think that our pitching staff, we’ve got great chemistry among our starting pitchers, which I think is important. I think that when they went out and got Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly to add to what we already have what characteristic I love about them is they’re competitors... They’re athletes. And I think it’s a great addition to the guys we already have – like Zambrano and Rich Hill and even Guzman who are tremendous athletes as well. When you get those guys and mix them together and all of a sudden, as long as they stay healthy, they’re just going to rub off each other. One guy pitches well, the next guy wants to pitch even better. And they’re competitive like that and they have the athletic ability to out-do one another over and over and over again, really, as good as their stuff is. So I think that’s what we have going right now. And most good starting staffs have that competitive energy in a positive way where they’re just consistently trying to be better than the next guy. And so far that’s kind of the feeling I’ve had is that these guys want they want the other starters to do well. They want they to pitch well, but at the same time they watch everything they do and they just want to go out there and do it a little bit better and do everything they can to help the team win.

BCB: What’s going on with Carlos Zambrano?

MB: It’s always been a slow start. April’s never been his best month. May and June the time that I’ve been here in the last three years have been his best months. I think it’s a matter of getting into a little bit warmer weather for him that he’s accustomed to. I think also that he’s such a passionate guy. He’s such a fierce competitor that the start of the season really moves him. Maybe moves him out of his element sometimes. So, for him, it takes a little while to calm down. His arm angle is very important. When he gets his arm angle he just dominates. He knows that. It’s just that sometimes it’s easier said than done.

BCB: That’s like we saw last Friday in his first inning.

MB: The first inning he didn’t have his arm angle. As the inning went on he started to get it then the second inning had it and that was the difference in his start.

BCB: Tell me a little bit about how you and the rest of the team are reacting to Lou Piniella’s managing style.

MB: We’re still adjusting to it. You know, I haven’t really been around management that has made that many double switches this early on and it’s great in a way that he really has confidence in the entire team to use them in a situation or whatever… he feels very comfortable in utilizing the whole team in whatever way it takes to win. I think that it’s interesting. You don’t see a lot of managers have a lot of confidence in their entire team, entire bench, or the entire bullpen. But he does. I think that it’s an adjustment on our players’ part that when they’re not playing, it’s not a day off. It’s a day to help the team in another way. And we’ve got guys that care so much like Mark DeRosa. He came in as an everyday second baseman. He has given that up to be, to do whatever it takes to help the team win. Playing third base. Playing shortstop. And those are the type of players you have to have on championship teams. And Lou has shown he will do whatever it takes to win and to use whoever it is.. I mean, I may end up somewhere else other than catching. You just never know. Like [Sunday's] game, we were all scratching our head like who’s going to play second, who’s going to play left, trying to keep up with it.

BCB: Would you have gone out to play shortstop? Some of us in the bleachers thought that might be next.

MB: At that point I would have, at that point I just wanted to win the game. I would have done whatever it took. It’s a true mark about what we think of him as a manager to put our own personal desires to play one position, our own desires to want to start to help the team win. We believe in him to do the right thing to help the team win. And when you have that connection it really shows and over the course of the season it’ll show even more.

BCB: How do you feel about how you’ve done so far this year?

MB: I got off to a little bit of a slow start, got hot, now I haven’t got a couple hits, hit the ball hard…

BCB: That ball you hit in the 10th inning yesterday -- that was really a rocket.

MB: Yeah. I’ve hit right at some guys. Had some bad at bats. Had some good at bats and had nothing to show for it. Therefore that usually equals slump. I’m in a mini slump and I know that.

BCB: What do you do to get out of that?

MB: I just focus on defense. I just focus on getting my pitchers through. Contributing every way that I can. If it’s blocking a ball I’m going to find a way to contribute to help the team win if I can. I’m gong to find a way. I’m just more accustomed to doing it with the bat than I am right now.

BCB: Are you looking at any teams in particular…what do you think about what the Brewers have done so far?

MB: The Brewers have a very good team. Usually when you talk of the Brewers you don’t talk about having the chances of playing in October and stuff, but they have the team this year to do that. If they all stay healthy like any other of the championship caliber type teams they have a chance. They have built a rotation and a bullpen that’s as good as any staff in baseball. And on top of that they have some young offensive threats. If Prince Fielder continues to stay healthy, he’s got MVP type talent. Their lineup is going to be strong.. There’s a lot of pressure on the young guys at the top of their order which could be a huge difference. There’s a lot of pressure on Rickie Weeks, a lot of pressure on J. J. Hardy and they’re stepping up. They have just stepped up to the challenge right now. If they continue to play like they are, that is a good team.

BCB: You have so many new teammates this year. Has there been anything about any of these guys that has surprised you, that you didn't expect?

MB: Alfonso Soriano – great, great guy. I always knew he was a good guy but as a teammate, great teammate. Great guy. He reminds me so much of Vladimir Guerrero. Just a fun-loving, just a very good competitor. A fierce competitor but as far as a clubhouse, teammate guy, just a fun loving easy going guy that comes to play baseball every day.

BCB: How about Felix Pie?

MB: Felix Pie is very exciting… him and Soriano hang out together a lot and Soriano’s taken Felix under his wing, which I think has given him a lot of confidence and given him that guy on the team that he needs right now to bring him up. And as far as energy. He just has so much energy and we need that … as a veteran team, we need young blood, it rubs off on the rest of the veterans. So he’s one of those guys who does that. Oh, Soriano.. Something that stands out about Soriano… defensively. Center field he did a good job. In left field he’s doing a great job. He threw Jim Edmonds out at home plate, which ended up being the turning point in that game with the Cardinals in St. Louis.

BCB: Neal Cotts gets overlooked at times, but the impression I have of him is he works harder than just about anybody on the team.

MB: Yeah. Neal Cotts is slowly becoming the hardest working guy I’ve ever been around. He’s got tremendous stuff. It just takes a little time to get used to the National League. You’ve got bunt plays now, you’ve got … when you’re in the American League everything relies, every team pretty much in the American League relies on the three run homerun. And in the National League it’s a little different. So it’s a little different mentality for him. You know, hitters take a different approach in this league, like in St. Louis he hit Taguchi on an 0-2 fastball where I think over time he realizes that in that situation you have a little bit different mentality there on the hitter’s part. He’s not trying to hit a homerun, he’s trying to move runners and do situational type hitting, which in the American League there’s not a whole lot of guys that do that. I think there’s going to be a little bit of an adjustment period but as far as stuff goes, he’s got as good stuff as we have on our entire team.

Many thanks to Alan Lieberman of Lieberman & Associates, Matt Kramer, Michael's rep from Barrett Baseball, and Linda Marshall of Linda Marshall Communications for helping arrange the interview with Michael Barrett, a key cog in this year's Cub team and a truly nice guy.

Finally, among other things I learned in discussing baseball and the Cubs last night is this: the Cubs are 5-0 in May for the first time since 1937.

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BCB Interview: Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll

I had a chance yesterday to run a few quick Cub-related questions by Will -- here are his responses:

Q: Let's talk about Mark Prior's labrum surgery. Why do you think it took so long for them to do this? And what's the prognosis for his future? Finally, could the two injuries he suffered -- the collision with Marcus Giles in 2003 and the broken elbow from Brad Hawpe in 2005 -- have altered his mechanics and caused the shoulder troubles?

A: Rule 1: Always avoid surgery. This one was relatively minor; Hendry's not wrong in calling it a tune-up. Aside from the labrum repair, there's nothing TERRIBLE there. It's just a lot of abuse coming to roost in the form of pain. Still, you have to do everything possible before doing surgery so I can't fault anyone for trying that. Would surgery have been better a year ago? Maybe, but easy to say that now. I'd put a lot more in the latter, as a "piling on" to problems he was having. Let me put this in the simplest terms: according to my sources there was no evidence of ANY TRAUMA. Suggestions that the Giles collision had anything to do with the findings now are incorrect or at the very least shows no clear indication of being the cause.

Q: Is the hamstring injury to Alfonso Soriano going to slow him down?

A: Literally! At least for a bit. He's shown that he's smart about running, knowing there's a recurrence risk. I think that giving up some speed and range is a fair trade, assuming his bat makes the trip to Chicago soon.

Q: What's up with Kerry Wood? What's his prognosis and future?

A: Remember that rule [see above]? Wood did and now he's at the stage where things are either going to come together or they're simply not. I wish I could say something more scientific here, but at this point, Wood's not so much a medical case as he is a mechanical case. I'd love to see him work on nothing but mechanics -- stopping from throwing across his body -- for a couple weeks just to see what happens.

Q: Same for Wade Miller. Any point in keeping him?

A: I never saw the point in having him. What don't you know about your pitchers that you needed another month or two to find out. Miller at this point is at best a passable placeholder. If you really think Miller, right now, is better than Guzman, right now, then you need to cut bait on Guzman and go down the depth chart. There's a lot more to be gained from that approach than merely treading water with a guy you know is going downhill.

Q: If there's anything else you'd care to add that's Cub-related, go ahead!

A: Everyone that thinks the sale of the team is going to have big changes in 2008 is likely wrong. This isn't going to be as quick or as neat a process as most are making it out to be. There's almost no chance that the team will be sold quickly enough to change management by the time of next year's winter meetings in Nashville. Given some of the prices we're hearing, there's a lot of people that think move #1 might be a fire sale.

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A Conversation About The Brewers With Al ...

... Al Bethke, that is, from the Brewers blog Al's Ramblings:

AY: What is the single most important key for the Brewers in 2007 if they are to contend for a playoff spot?

AB: I'd say the most important thing is that the youngsters; Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, and soon to be Ryan Braun, continue to develop offensively (and to a lesser extent, defensively). They could make this team a top 5 team offensively, or a bottom 5 team.

What do you feel will determine the Cubs' success, or lack thereof, in 2007?

AY: For me, it's the starting pitching. This team will score runs, with Derrek Lee back, and Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Jacque Jones and Michael Barrett all capable of pounding the ball. But if the starting pitching can't go deep into games, the bullpen will be overtaxed as it was last year, and that is always disastrous. Some Cubs fans didn't like the Lilly & Marquis signings. Granted, it's small sample size, but the first start this year for each one is a good sign.

Geoff Jenkins. Comeback, or will he just get hurt again?

AB: Geoff actually had a decent year in '06, but struggled versus LHP. He will be severely limited versus LHP, so I think he'll be fine. If both he and Kevin Mench match their career numbers against pitchers that throw with the opposite hand, they might outproduce all but a few LF's, as well as provide nice corner OF depth.

Speaking of OF's, I think Matt Murton is a fine young player, and I feel badly he's seemingly behind Jones and Floyd. Explain that to me.

AY: I don't see Murton as "behind" Jones -- Jones plays RF, and Murton LF. About Jones, he may be traded sometime this year so the Cubs can make room for Felix Pie.

Floyd can hit, no question about it. I don't like the DH, but I sometimes find myself wishing the NL had it, because Floyd would be perfect. He's still recovering from heel surgery, and is a statue in the outfield. Murton will get his playing time.

Of the Brewers' young players: Corey Hart, J. J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder -- who is going to become the biggest star, and why?

AB: I've been saying Weeks because he will hit and he plays a position few players hit much at. However, I think there's a good chance Ryan Braun will be better than all of them.

I was an advocate of the Crew signing Jason Marquis (only Suppan was higher on my list), but I thought he'd sign for one year at $3-4M, not the lucrative contract he ended up with. Do you agree he'll rebound, or do you have low expectations?

AY: I have had spirited debates on BCB about Marquis. I wanted him signed, and I agree, the three-year deal was over the top.

But I think he's figured out some of the things he did wrong last year. He had a good first start, he had a decent spring, and if he could replicate the year he had with the 2004 Cardinals -- a 100-win team that made the World Series, where he went 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA -- we'll be very, very happy. Who is/are the Cub player or players that you most fear?

AB: I can't say I fear anyone, but I do respect the back of the bullpen, especially Howry and Eyre, who the Crew went after and were outbid for. Who's your favorite Brewers' player?

AY: I really like Corey Hart. I see he's been pretty much pencilled in as uour regular right fielder this year, but I know he can play other positions. At his age -- 24 -- I see him developing more power as he gets older, especially with his size. I wanted to see the Cubs try to pry him away from you guys. How do you feel about we Cubs fans coming up to Miller Park and "taking over" during most Cubs/Brewers series?

AB: I have no problem with it, it's usually about a 50/50 split. The Cubs have transplanted fans all over the country, and the location makes it perfect for many northern IL fans. WI actually has quite a few Cubs' fans, many older gents from the days before the Brewers. In fact, I silently thank them for their donation to the Crew's coffers.:) Heck, the Cubs/Cards games in StL are usually pretty evenly split, and the Brewers have a fraction of the tradition of the Cardinals.  

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BCB Interview: Michael Barrett

Many thanks to Matt Kramer, Michael's rep from his website Barrett Baseball, for helping to make this interview possible. Thanks too to all the BCB readers who submitted questions for Michael, making this a true community interview.

BCB: In calling a game, how much work do you do with video to study batters and prepare a game plan for attacking opposing hitters and (2) do you do most of this or does Larry Rothschild help and (3) how much does the starting pitcher collaborate with you on a game plan? Finally, if the game starts and the starter's curve is hanging, or the fastball is flat, do you have multiple "what if..." plans?

MB: We do a lot of film study. I think that part of the game is something that not everyone has the opportunity to see. Our coaches do a great job of not only helping us break down film, but also help us come up with a strategy to go after hitters with.

The starting pitcher and I do collaborate quite a bit on a game plan, and it's my job to make sure that we have a strategy ready. There are always going to be "what if" plans associated with how a specific pitcher is throwing, but the pitcher - more times than not - is going to start out a game by throwing to his strengths, as opposed to a hitter's weakness.

BCB: As a catcher, you have a unique perspective on the coaching staff, as you work with both the hitting and pitching coaches. What are the major differences in the team's approach to hitting now that Lou Piniella has taken over the team? Has Larry Rothschild changed any of his advice to you or the pitching staff, now that he has a new manager?
MB: It's probably too early right now to characterize the specific differences of the coaching staffs. Both Dusty and Lou are great managers. As far as the approach to hitting goes, it's important for me to work hard every single day to make sure that I'm maximizing my potential. I spent a lot of time this off season working in the cage, and getting ready for this season.
BCB: Last year, there were quite a few injuries to Cubs pitchers and thus quite a few rookie pitchers started. Rarely, though, do we hear about how you and Henry Blanco deal with it. How hard is it to handle so many different pitchers in a year, particularly young ones? And which of the Cubs' young pitchers do you feel is the most promising?
MB: Certainly last year was a difficult season for everyone who follows the Cubs, but I think one of things that I noticed is that there is some real promise with some of our younger pitchers: guys like Juan Mateo, Carlos Marmol, etc.

As with any new pitcher, young or old, it takes a little while to get to know their stuff, but there is a lot of promise with our younger guys. Even a guy like Ted Lilly should be considered "young." He's just over 30 years old, and he's coming into a new league, so I see a lot of promise from him as well.

BCB: When do you decide you need to go out and talk to pitchers? Do you avoid doing this if they are doing badly, or going well in a particular game?
MB: It varies. If I see one of our pitchers struggling out there with his emotions I will go out and talk to him. If one of our guys is really pitching well, then I'll tend to make sure he stays in his groove. I don't think catchers need to necessarily say a lot, but if we can help to keep a pitcher focused and keep his emotions in check then I think a trip to the mound is worth it.
BCB: Does the grind get to you? Along the lines of fatigue for you, pitchers sometimes have problems with control after long rain delays - does a rain delay ever bother your knees/shins?
MB: The grind of a season is very difficult for any ball player, catchers included. That's why it's so important to make sure you maximize my work that's done before games, after games, and during off days. When teams are traveling on the road in the heat of the summer for extended period of time it wears on anyone.
BCB: Regarding your success last year's offensively, was there anything that you changed at the plate, stance or cocking of the wrists, picking a certain pitch and location, or do you think you just seeing the ball better than years past?
MB: I just worked really hard on my approach at the plate. Just being in the Majors for a few years now, I've worked hard this off season on understanding how to prepare everyday to maintain my focus.
BCB: Do you have any preferences as to your slot in the batting order? Do you think you hit better in certain slots as opposed to others?
MB: I really don't. Wherever Lou wants to put me I'm okay with. If there is a spot in the lineup where I am helpnig the team, then I want to hit there.
BCB: Do you think that the responsibilities of catching has ever hurt your development as a hitter? It's sometimes said that catchers develop late because "they've got so many other things to worry about, they can't concentrate on their hitting as much." Do you think that's true and if so, is your recent development as a great hitter in part related to being more comfortable behind the plate?
MB: Sometimes it affects me. At times last season it was difficult to separate my catching responsibilities from my hitting responsibilities. I actually started as a SS/3B coming up through the Montreal Expos system, so I probably went through that transition later than most catchers out there today. I think it is true that catching is a really tough position out there, but I look at the fact that I need to be great at both catching and hitting as a great challenge that I want to face.
BCB: Do you have a book on the umpires? Just how much will the pitching game plan depend on the guy standing behind you? Just how much talking do you do behind the plate? Do you feel you can get into either the hitter's or umpire's head by talking with them?
MB: I think that I've got a pretty good relationship with the umpires out there. You really do have to have some sort of communication out there with the home plate umpire throughout the game. I don't talk to the hitters when they are up at the plate, but I'll say hello to them in other ways (throwing some dirt on their shoes, etc). The biggest thing for young catchers to realize is that I think it is smart for you to have some dialogue with the umpire, because you each have your own set of eyes and you aren't necessarily going to agree with where a pitch came in.
BCB: What are the pros and cons of today's catchers masks - hockey style, coated wire frame, etc. Which one do you prefer?
MB: I've worn both, and I prefer to wear the mask with the coated wire frames. It's a combination of a couple of different reasons, but it's important for me to feel like I'm as comfortable as I can possibly be during the game.
BCB: Growing up, which major league player or players did you try to emulate? And now, as a major league player yourself, who is your favorite current player to watch? Assuming that's a Cub, who is your favorite non-Cub to watch?
MB: Growing up in Georgia, I was a big fan of the way Dale Murphy played. He was with the Braves when I was growing up so he was probably my favorite major leaguer growing up. Also, my cousin, Scott Fletcher, was in the big leagues and I loved to watch him.

Watching some of the young catchers has been very enjoyable. Joe Mauer has really impressed me. I saw him last year when we played the Twins in Minnesota.

BCB: What aspect of the life of a major league baseball player is least well understood by the serious fan?
MB: I think the biggest aspect of life that well educated fans don't understand is truly the lack of privacy that not only we face - but that our families face.

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BCB Interview: Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll

Last week, I was given the opportunity to send questions about the Cubs to Will Carroll, who was going to forward them for responses to Christina Kahrl, who writes BP's Cubs chapter.

There's bad news and good news. The bad news is, Will lost the questions I originally sent him (the ones you all posted here last week). The good news is, when I re-sent them last night, he answered them himself. This isn't meant to diss Christina at all, but as you know, Will is greatly respected himself, and, as he described himself to me, "an ex-Cubs fan ... it's like a bad relationship. They could only hit me so many times before I had to leave."

Well... all of us have been hit in that way, I suppose. But we're still here, and here are Will's answers to our questions.

Q: We already know that Rich Hill has locked down a rotation spot, and that we know Wade Miller is still battling with Angel Guzman for one, and that Lou Piniella has been making a lot of encouraging OBP-like noises this spring training camp, does all of this mean that Lou may have "gotten religion" about modern statistics?

A: Well, let's look at this. We know now that Guzman's out of the starter chase. Hill is locked in, but do you feel like he's the #2, or is this so called "#5 slot" where Miller's really going to be? Piniella is tasked with winning now on a team where several young players are clearly better options. Felix Pie helps the team defensively and projects to be solid offensively. Matt Murton doesn't need a platoon partner. Ryan Theriot is better than Cesar Izturis in every category except "most Z's in name." Lou appears to have gotten some religion while he took a year off, but we haven't yet seen that he values it. It's a long season and we'll get more evidence as it moves along.

Q: Do we know any details about the specific injury (shoulder) that Oneri Fleita said affected Felix Pie's batting in Winter Ball this year?  Should we discount his terrible Dominican League statistics, or be worried that there might be lingering effects?

A: There haven't been any effects this spring. Winter injuries are notoriously difficult to get a handle on since they can be both underreported and exaggerated, often at the same time. Looking good in spring training is enough to make me look past any winter problems.

Q: Who would be a good comparison player to Angel Guzman--hurt in the minors, but with good stuff, and trying to enter the league at age 25 or so?

A: PECOTA comes up with some interesting names. David Cone established himself at 25 by winning 20 for the Mets. Let's not expect that. Russ Ortiz won 18 at 25, his first as a full-time starter. Let's not expect that either. How about a guy who Chicago fans will know - Dustin Hermanson. Injury prone and only establishing himself at 24, he went 8-8 for a fading Expos team. He had a couple good years, some starting some in the pen. That's not a bad comp for Guzman.

Q: Do the Cubs need to acquire a different shortstop to reach the playoffs this year?

A: No, why not try Theriot there first? Theriot is predicted to nearly equal [Cesar] Izturis' VORP getting just over 200 ABs. Ronny Cedeno is a better option. Heck, Neifi Perez might be a better option. Is he available? Did I just throw up in my mouth?

Q: The Cubs were horribly shallow at first base last year. When Derrek Lee went down, we saw a lot of bad hitters in the lineup. At what positions are the Cubs weakest this year? Are there any minor league players (e.g., Scott Moore) who could surprise if thrown into action due to someone else's injury?

A: Any team should be able to come up with something at 1B. There are scads of players at Triple-A that could stand in for a couple weeks and succeed. Not having one in Iowa is just poor planning. Now, it's not likely that a devastating injury like Lee's can be overcome by some replacement level slugger, but it can be minimized. There's always someone out there like Ross Gload, Chris Coste, or Andy Abad, just looking for a chance.

Q: Will the Cubs get anything of value in return for their excess relievers, or will they just hang onto guys like Novoa and Wuertz long enough to lose them for nothing?

A: That's a tough market. You'd like to see [Jim] Hendry just waiting for someone to make a desperation move or to swap strengths with some organization that's heavy on something the Cubs need. No one's excited to get Novoa - remember how he came over, as a throwin for a throwaway.

Q: What's best for the Cubs line-up, to have Alfonso Soriano leading off, or in the middle of the line-up, where he can drive in more runs and perhaps allow an OBP guy like Matt Murton to lead off?

A: Lineups don't matter much and if Soriano feels more comfortable at the 1, so be it. He's the stolen base threat and maybe that helps Murton more than Murton being on base 36% of the time. The difference between .350 and .360 is actually pretty narrow, enough that I'll go with whatever Piniella decides there.

Q: Are solo home runs and low OBP skills at the top of the order offset by his stolen bases or does it make more sense to put him in a position to drive in more runs? It's not only Soriano's generally weak obp skills that need to be compensated for, we're also going to have a weaker bat than his in the middle of the lineup. Will 40 or so stolen bases make up for all that?

A: It would make sense to have him further back in absence of other power threats. The Cubs have [Aramis] Ramirez and Lee back there. Where it could hurt is with Izturis never being on base ahead of the pitcher, leaving Soriano hitting too many solo shots. I think if Jones gets a solid platoon partner or is pushed aside by Felix Pie (Soriano to LF, Murton to RF), then it's really moot.

Q: Will we lead the league in solo home runs this year?

A: Good question. Did the A's lead the league in years where Rickey Henderson was there, or the Yankees? That's one I'll sic the data guys on.

Q: How is jerking Soriano around the outfield going to affect him, if at all? Last year he played left and now he's going to be the center fielder. Yet we all know he's headed to right as soon as Jacque Jones leaves and Pie is going to take over in center.

A: He seems okay with it. There's been none of the drama of last year. We might get some if the wind really affects him or if he falters early.

Q: Would the Cubs have better spent their money filling a need rather than throwing money at a name player with relatively ordinary offensive numbers for a corner outfielder (Soriano)

A: What need? Pitching? They got who they wanted of what was available. SS? They weren't looking. The money's irrelevant - it certainly didn't stop them from spending on everyone else. It's not like the team had $20m dollars to fill everything. They spent just over a third of their offseason bounty on him. Was there a better free agent out there?

Q: Which, if any, of the Cub offseason acquisitions are most likely to retard the development of the team and do not help toward winning now?

A: Why anyone felt the need to give Jason Marquis more than an NRI is beyond me. Did they need to block Guzman? Did they feel he was a better option than ... anyone? I guess so. Larry Rothschild said he could fix him and seems to be trying to turn him into a sinkerballer. I'll believe that when I see it. To me, that move could be the Victor Zambrano move for Rothschild. At least they only gave up cash.

Q: Why does PECOTA seem to love Pie so much, calling for a 20 HR campaign this season if he were to play in the majors? He's yet to show that kind of power at any level previously, does he share any similarities with Hanley Ramirez with regards to potential vs. output in the minor leagues?

A: What's not to like? Speed, great defense, a projectable body.

Q: Assuming that Zambrano, Hill, Lilly and Marquis are the first four starters, who should be #5?  Miller or Guzman or Prior?

A: I'd go with Guzman, but that's based on long-term, not "right now." Miller's pitched better in the spring, for what that's worth (not much.) I can't make any argument for Prior.

Q: Do you maintain any metrics that show how accurate or bad your preseason predictions are after the season is over?

A: No, we leave that to independent parties. Year after year, PECOTA has tracked as the most accurate tool out there. In one study, we were first in hitters, second in pitchers, but Nate Silver is always working to improve what happens in his magical laptop each offseason.

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Open Thread: 2006 World Series, Game 4

They'll try it again tonight, weather permitting, and it still doesn't look very good.

Gameday: Tigers at Cardinals, 7 pm CT. (Cardinals lead series 2-1) TV: Fox

Discuss amongst yourselves.

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BCB Interview: Bruce Miles

Daily Herald sportswriter Bruce Miles has been, as you know, a visitor and friend to BCB, and recently agreed to answer some questions I put to him about the future of the Cubs.

Q: What is the legacy of Dusty Baker in Cubs history, in your view? Right now, his tenure is seen as a failure. Years from now, will that be seen differently?

A: I believe the Baker legacy will be one of great expectation followed by great disappointment. Until Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS, Baker could have been elected mayor of Chicago. After that, he'd have a hard time running for dog catcher. It's hard to believe so many things turned on one game, but that's what happened. Dusty, on balance, is a good manager. He needs the right mix of players, which he had in 2003.

Q: If you could choose ONLY ONE PLAYER to add as a free agent to the 2007 Cubs, what position would you choose and who would it be and why?

A: Barry Zito. The Cubs need a second dominant pitcher to go with Zambrano. Zito might be cost prohibitive. He'll also go from a large park with huge foul territory to Wrigley Field. They'll have to do a lot of homework on this one.

Q: To follow up on that, let's say the Cubs don't get Zito, or decide he's not a good fit. Who else would you prioritize acquiring?

A: If you can't get Zito, you get Alfonso Soriano and worry later about where he plays. The Cubs desperately need offense.

Q: Tell us what you know of John McDonough. Why WILL he make a good team president... and why WON'T he make a good team president?

A: John McDonough is one of the sharpest and most personable people I've ever been around. Actually, I can say the same thing about Andy MacPhail. John will be a good president because he's been in the organization for a long time and has had success running his area. The fact that he's not a "baseball guy" is overrated. If he doesn't succeed, it will be because the Tribune Co. doesn't give him all the resources he needs.

Q: What is your opinion of Joe Girardi as a man, and as a manager? Would he be your choice to succeed Baker? If not, who would you choose?

A: Joe Girardi is a solid man. From all appearances and from this distance, it appears he did a good job, perhaps a great job, of managing the Marlins. I'd choose him.

(Note: this interview was conducted before the apparent dismissal of Joe Torre by the Yankees. I'll let Bruce chime in here if he feels differently, but I suspect this, if it does in fact happen, wouldn't change his mind about Girardi.)

Q: What are the primary reasons, in your view, that the Cubs, a big-market franchise, have not been able to produce consistent winning teams?

A: Poor drafting and a flawed philosophy of player procurement at the big-league level. The Cubs did turn "prospects" such as Bobby Hill and Hee Seop Choi into gold, but they've failed to develop position players. On the big-league level, they need to pay attention to more scientific methods and start valuing stats such as on-base percentage and the effects of high pitch counts by their starting pitchers. I'm encouraged from what I've seen of Tim Wilken, the new scouting director.

Q: Kerry Wood. Does he return?

A: Yes, as a reliever.

Q: I agree with you, both that it should happen and that it WILL happen, So, presuming it DOES happen, is he immediately installed as closer? Or does he have to be a setup man first? And if he is the closer, what do you do with Ryan Dempster?

A: On Kerry Wood, you make him a setup man first and see if he's physically fit to be a closer. In other words, can he pitch three days in a row and four out of five? You begin with Dempster or Howry as your closer, depending on how Dempster looks in spring training. If Wood can become the closer, you look to trade Dempster.

Q: It's well known that the organization tends to value scouting reports and "toolsy" players and puts less stock in statistical analysis. Why do you think this is, and what could be done to show Jim Hendry & Co. that BOTH scouting and stat analysis are useful?

A: Jim Hendry comes from a coaching background in college, and his mentors in pro ball have been scouts or "scouts guys." I believe the tide is starting to turn, however, and that they'll achieve more of a balance in coming years, although it will be a gradual process. The Cubs have taken a pretty good beating from the stats community, and they know it. The mainstream media has been slower to embrace sabermetrics, but that's changing too. The Cubs still will rely heavily on their scouts for amateur drafting, as they feel too many stats become skewed at the high school and college level by things such as pitchers with poor control, teams pitching around good hitters and teams having less-than-average fielders.

As always, I thank Bruce for his time and insights.

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Interview: Dave Stewart

Several weeks ago, I was offered an opportunity to interview former major league pitcher, coach and executive Dave Stewart, who now hosts a show on the fantasy sports site NBX.com. As you recall, I asked BCB readers to submit questions for Dave. Here's the interview; I submitted your questions by email and received the replies in the same way, so unfortunately there wasn't any capacity for followup questions. But I think Dave has some insights on the game and the Cubs, and he doesn't pull punches.

BCB: Can you tell us a little bit about the knowledge-level of players on steroids was during your days with the A's? Jose Canseco claims the steroid use was common knowledge - not even veiled in secrecy.

DS: My opinion on that is drug addicts hang out with drug addicts, alcoholics are usually in the same area with alcoholics so a steroid user would probably be in the same neighborhood with steroid users. Jose would probably know about steroid use but a guy like me who's not privy to that kind of stuff nor using steroids would have no knowledge of it. That would include Carney Lansford, that would be Rickey Henderson, that would be Dave Henderson, that would be Dave Parker. Where you have two guys on our team using steroids out of 25, I would say the percentage of guys on our ball club that knew about it would be two guys vs. 23.

BCB: Over a five year run with the A's (1987-91) you averaged 36 + starts per year, 257+ innings per year and had a total of 43 complete games. No one in baseball today comes close to those numbers. Should top starting pitchers be expected to handle that sort of workload, or is the current preference toward five-man rotations and strict adherence to pitch counts better?

DS: I think there's a responsibility, definitely from at least the #1 starter, no doubt about it. I think there should be a work load for your #2 and your #3 starters. I think your 4th and 5th guys there should be less expectation. The game of baseball today has changed a lot from when I played. A #1 starter in my period of time was expected to start and be ready to start every fifth day or every fourth day if necessary. You had to put in a good pitching work load because complete games in my period were necessary to rest the bullpen. Now starters are expected to throw six innings at best and if you can get seven out of them that's what they call icing on the cake. More teams are developing their bullpens to be better and to be able to come in games in the fifth, sixth, seventh innings to get the ball to your closer and your set up guy. The game is designed differently. In my opinion I can see starting pitching pitch deep in the game and bring back complete games being good for baseball. But the game is different now.

BCB: When you pitched, you were allowed to pitch inside and hitters didn't wear armor like they do now. How would you pitch in today's environment?

DS: I'd pitch the same way. You don't change your style of pitching. If you're known to be a guy that's out there who pitches a lot inside to take control of the inside part of the plate those things don't change whether a guy's wearing a pad on his elbow or not. You still take control of the part of the plate you feel comfortable with.

BCB: How much effect can a coach have on a big leaguer? Does it all come down to their desire and ability to listen and change? Can you talk a little bit about what it's like to be a pitching coach?

DS: The purpose of having a coach is to refine, make better, to be an addition to what a player already has, what a player is already doing. Players get to the big leagues because they're talented already. We're not trying to do anything but enhance their talent and give them a better plan for what they already do, to give them awareness. We're teachers in doing that. It's for better awareness, to fine tune and help skilled players get better.

BCB: Have you ever seen a pitching staff with as many injuries as the Cubs have? What factors do you think contribute to such a disaster of a rotation? Conditioning? Over-use? Bad luck?

DS: I have never seen so many injuries to a pitching staff. What contributes to that, all of the above. Overuse, but that doesn't necessarily have to happen in the big leagues. That could have happened in college ball or high school leading to the minor leagues and getting to the big leagues. Then also some pitchers genetically just aren't able to handle the work load, consequently they break down or you've already got things happening with the arm that eventually will come out at a later time. There are a lot of different reasons for it. Conditioning can be part of it. There are a lot of reasons, but I don't think you can pinpoint one.

BCB: What do you see as the strengths and weaknesses of the Cubs' organization? What steps would you take to address these weaknesses? Finally, how long would you expect it to take to turn this franchise into a contender?

DS: Now anybody would say their biggest weakness, their biggest hole is their starting rotation. They have the ability there it's just keeping it healthy. They're a much better team when you've got Prior and Wood in their rotation - their top two guys. They're a much better team than they are now.

BCB: Did the Cubs give up on Jerome Williams too early? He's shown potential (especially prior to the Cubs), but was released without enough time to prove himself.

DS: Sometimes that happens. The one thing management or baseball teams don't have is a crystal ball to see what a player's going to be in the future. You put in time with players. In time they think that they have an understanding of what a player's going to be and when I say internally I mean you get together with your coaches, your minor league staff, your big league staff and you evaluate a player. You try to do the best job you can to understand what a player is going to end up being. Nobody is 100% right on a player. I was with Philadelphia in 1985 and was released by the Phillies [the following year]. I was traded by the Dodgers and Texas and ended up having a pretty good career when I got to Oakland. Sometimes it's just getting to the right place and getting to the right environment to bring out your ability.

BCB: What do you know personally about Larry Rothschild and his pitching philosophies and what is your take on his strengths and weaknesses as a pitching coach?

DS: I don't know very much about Larry at all. I knew Larry as a pitcher in the big leagues but I don't know very much about him and his coaching style. People have said he's very good. He's a mental guy vs. a mechanical guy like some of the pitching coaches in the big leagues. I personally don't know much other than hearsay.

BCB: What's your take on Rich Hill? Is he for real?

DS: With young players you just have to wait and see. It's tough to say if he's for real or not. In appearance yeah, you think he's going to be around for awhile, but I think it's going to be a wait and see. I like to wait and see on guys. Ryan Howard came into the league last year and did what he did, but I wasn't willing to say that he was going to do what he did again this year. Now having an MVP year he's legitimate. Most people will say wait after two years and then make the decision.

BCB: Which current Cubs pitcher do you think most closely matches your repertoire?

DS: If anybody it'd probably be Zambrano. I like Wood but he's not close. I like Prior but he's not close. Zambrano is legitimate. He's competitive and he's got a great assortment of pitches. The only difference between me and Zambrano is composure. I don't think he's always composed. I think he's too emotional at times, but just pitching repertoire I'd say Zambrano

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