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2005 Ends, 2006 Begins

The season isn't over -- there's one more game to go, after today's 3-1 loss to the Astros, which assured the Cubs of their first losing record since 2002, and also eliminated them from any possibility of tying Milwaukee for third place.

Ack. That really looks bad, doesn't it? After what we've had the last two seasons, and the hope we had for this year, that's all we had on the final weekend? To tie the BREWERS? And then fail at that, too?

Oh, well. There is significance to tomorrow's game; with Philadelphia's win over Washington today, the Phillies remain a game behind the Astros for the NL Wild Card; thus, a Cub win over Houston and a Phillies win over the Nats tomorrow, would force a wild-card playoff game -- in Philadelphia -- on Monday.

That's the present. The future -- 2006 -- also started today, with the Cubs announcing that Ryan Dempster has been signed to a 3-year, $15 million contract extension.

This is excellent news. Dempster was one of the few bright spots for the 2005 Cubs, having been nearly perfect (33 saves in 35 attempts) as closer since he was moved there in early May. It can be argued that if he'd been given the closer job from the season's outset, as Jim Hendry said he was going to, that the Cubs might have won half-a-dozen more games and would have been right there with the Phillies and Astros as the season comes down to its final day tomorrow.

Can't keep crying over that, right? At least this establishes a role for next year's bullpen, without a doubt, and Hendry has also strongly hinted that Mike Wuertz and Roberto Novoa will be key parts of next year's bullpen. Like Dempster a year ago, both Wuertz and Novoa showed flashes of brilliance, and also flashes of real putridness -- such as Novoa's blown save last night. Both of them have talent, and a year's major league experience ought to help.

About today's game, Roger Clemens again didn't get much run support, but he didn't need much, after the Astros scored two runs while he was actually in the game, he must have thought that was an embarrassment of riches. They added an insurance run off Jerome Williams in the seventh; Williams didn't pitch too badly today, and "flashes of brilliance" could define his season as well. It's clear to me that Williams still has the talent that made him the Giants' #1 pitching prospect a couple of years ago, and he will surely get prime consideration for the 2006 rotation.

I commend to you, as an example of what Williams might become, the following stat lines:

IP    H   R  ER   BB   SO   HR   W   L    ERA
104  98  47  43   45   62   12   6   8   3.72
184 150  77  68   52  150   24   6   8   3.32
The first line is what Williams did this year after his acquisition.

The second is Fergie Jenkins' 1966 season, when he was, as Williams was, acquired early in the season from the Phillies. He was then, as Williams is now, twenty-three years old.

I'm not implying that Williams will be a Hall of Famer -- only that sometimes pitchers with this sort of talent, suddenly harness it with maturity. If that happens, the Cubs will have a #2 starter without having to make a deal or drop a single extra dollar.

Since Derrek Lee was 0-for-2 with two walks, he remains one hit short of 200, one extra-base hit short of 100, and six total bases short of 400. He'll win the NL batting title (and lead both leagues, for whatever that's worth), and will have the highest average by a Cub since Bill Madlock hit .339 in 1976. If he goes 3-for-4 his season average will be .340, the first Cub to hit that high since Madlock's .354 in 1975.

And Jeromy Burnitz, whose option will almost certainly not be picked up by the Cubs and who seems likely to retire, still needs one home run for 300 in his career.

So, there are plenty of reasons to watch tomorrow's game with interest.

Today, it being a lovely, sunny, summerlike October afternoon in Chicago, I took Rachel to the Lincoln Park Zoo, where her particular favorites were the monkeys, especially one who had lost an arm in an accident, but who could still amble about the tree branches with ease.

While I was doing that, my friend David was driving by the ballpark, and snapped a couple of photos that show that the bleacher reconstruction project is, indeed, about to begin: parking is going to be banned on Sheffield and Waveland starting Monday, and the center field TV camera hut is already gone. Thought I'd share them with you.

As Mike would say, sic transit gloria mundi.


Sheffield Avenue, Chicago, Saturday, October 1, 2005


The bleachers, minus the camera hut, Saturday, October 1, 2005

(Photos by David Sameshima)

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Free field box ticket available for Sunday's final
My friend can't make the game so I want it to go to a Cub fan. I can be reached anytime at 713-249-2999.
Sorry for the lateness of the notice.

Terry

Players win awards but teams win championships.

by tharr on Oct 1, 2005 8:57 PM CDT reply actions  

Well.....
 I like the signing of Dempster but all this talk of Wuertz and Novoa coming back next year is unsettling. Both have at times shown signs of brilliance but neither to me performed well enough overall to just say.."oh yeah, Wuertz and Novoa are locks next year." like Hendry did. In my opinion there are literally a handful of players from this team who should be considered "locks" and head into Winter with a guaranteed spot.

 I'm not sold on Wuertz and definitely not sold on Novoa. Not sure why anyone thinks next year will be any different, with these 2 clowns. Hendry has never had a good bullpen and saying Wuertz and Novoa are locks is not encouraging.

 

by SoBlueCal on Oct 1, 2005 9:23 PM CDT reply actions  

I agree...
and I wish we didn't just settle on them, but you can't replace 20 players on a team in one offseason.  Gotta try and keep a few that you think have promise.  But teh bullpen has been bad the last 2 years and I hope hendry does really think about it as priority #1 this offseason.

by mannytrillo on Oct 1, 2005 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's hard to be sold on most relievers
Look over the careers of the relievers that populate the bullpens of the best teams.  You generally have no more than 2-3 guys with an established record of consistency.  The rest are generally a haggard bunch who may or may not be having good years.

Wuertz and Novoa both had serviceable seasons of a sort you don't mind having stowed in the back of the bullpen.  Both have talent, evidenced in their high strikeout rates, and both are somewhat raw, as evidenced in their high walk rates.  Either is capable of a breakout or a collapse.

So no, we shouldn't be sold on Wuertz or Novoa, but we shouldn't expect to be sold on every reliever on the roster.

And I definitely do NOT like the signing of Dempster.  Way, way too much money and commitment for a relief pitcher who walks a man every other inning, and has a track record that amounts to four months.

by dvdmgsr on Oct 2, 2005 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

May I remind you..
.... that the Cubs once had a closer whose walk ratios were FAR worse than Dempster's?

Mitch Williams walked about seven every nine innings, yet was good enough to be the closer on an NL East Cub champion in 1989, and on an NL champion Phillie team in 1993.

Sure, he was pretty much done after he gave up the WS-winning HR to Joe Carter, but he managed to be effective despite the walks.

I believe Dempster is one of those guys who "gets it", and can be effective even when a bit wild.

by Al Yellon on Oct 2, 2005 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do you think it would have been a good idea...
...to reward Mitch Williams' 1989 season with a three year guaranteed contract?

I'm not sure that citing Mitch Williams, an odd case, and not exactly a guy I would call a reliable closer, supports a pro-Dempster argument.  Among closers who struggle with their control, it's easier to come up with examples like Antonio Alfonseca and Kyle Farnsworth than it is to come up with success stories.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dempster have one or two really good years in the next few.  But I would be even less surprised to see him have an extended period of struggling, which we have all seen spin out of control in this organization.

In July and August this year, Dempster was 8-1 in save opportunities.  He gave up 21 hits in 22 IP, walked 16 and struck out 16, a WHIP of 1.68.  If Dempster has a stretch like that in April and May, and is a little less lucky regarding the game outcomes, he's going to need every bit of that closer mental toughness that Hendry has attributed to him.

by dvdmgsr on Oct 2, 2005 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Your point is well taken...
... but I wish you'd acknowledge mine, that is, that the "mental toughness" is a large part of what makes a successful closer.

Dempster has it. LaTroy Hawkins, for example, did not.

by Al Yellon on Oct 2, 2005 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yup
The Cubs as a team have 39 saves.  Only 6 are not Ryan Dempster's.  The team has 19 blown saves.  Only 2 of those belong to Dempster.

Dempster is going to run into bad luck or bad games.  But I do not expect him to collapse next year and have 19 blown saves or even 10 for that matter.  I expect him to blow a few saves, but his toughness is going to help him come back in another game and do his job. Hawkins probably never got over the blown save last year in New York.

Dempster has great stuff.  He does need to cut the walks.  But he isn't the only one.  Everyone that pitches in Cubbie blue minus Mad Dog needs to cut their walk totals down.  Since that is a weakness of the whole staff, I expect it to be addressed, and improved for next year.  

Cubbie blue always sPaRkLeS in my eyes.

by sparkles721 on Oct 2, 2005 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

So who are the people,,,
...sitting in the bleachers in the picture? Trib execs regretting bleacher modification?

by BeerCub on Oct 1, 2005 10:26 PM CDT reply actions  

LOL!
They look like some people I saw walking around the last couple of days of the season... I think they are people connected with the construction contractors.

by Al Yellon on Oct 2, 2005 4:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

Bad signing
Signing Dempster for 3 years at $5mm could be a huge mistake.  He's had one season as a closer.  It's been good, but he's not been what I would call lights out and he hasn't pitched in many high leverage situations.  How many guys have been anointed "closer" after one year with a lot of saves only to fall apart in the next year or two?

by jolietconvict on Oct 2, 2005 9:17 AM CDT reply actions  

Geez Louise...
...well, I guess they can't please everybody. What would you have had Dempster do instead? He went 33 for 35 in save situations. How many more lights did you want him to put out? It isn't his fault not every game was for the pennant.

Everything's a gamble. Can you name a closer, proven according to whatever criteria you have, who would come less expensive?

by BeerCub on Oct 2, 2005 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

Huh?
What does less expensive have to do with it?  Kinda cheap != a good signing.

by jolietconvict on Oct 2, 2005 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Let's Put It This Way Then...
...of those available, who is demonstrably better than Dempster?

by BeerCub on Oct 2, 2005 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

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