Why You Should Turn Sports Radio Off
First of all, because they're breathlessly trying to make scoops for themselves, spouting off nonsense which masquerades as news or reality.
I like to think that the discussion on BCB is not only more civil, but more intelligent and more educational than the drivel that often spouts out of the airwaves on the Score or ESPN 1000.
Example: yesterday's bleatings about the alleged Prior/Patterson/Hill for Tejada/Bedard deal that was "on the table".
Whose table that was, wasn't stated. As correctly stated in today's Daily Herald, no such deal has been proposed or discussed (and my sources confirm this). Not that I wouldn't make it if it were.
The reason I mention this article is that it goes on to note several high-profile deals involving pitchers traded for hitters, and why they went wrong.
Of the deals mentioned, none of them are really comparable to the proposed trade of Mark Prior. Let's take them one by one, in chronological order:
The Cubs did their homework here. Buhl was about done, and I have no idea what the Phillies were thinking, except that after their collapse of 1964, and failure to progress the following year, they must have felt some "pressure" to win now, and thought that a veteran presence would help. It didn't, although Jackson did produce three fine seasons for them before retiring.
I hesitate to mention this, but you also have to realize the context of the time. Jenkins and Phillips were black, and there were still many racists in baseball in 1966 -- and Dick Allen was a Phillie at the time, and had already been involved in controversy.
This was a poor deal only in retrospect. At the time, Ryan was viewed as a nicer Kyle Farnsworth. Fregosi was a 29-year-old six-time All-Star who was one year removed from a season only a little bit short of Miguel Tejada's 2005 (Fregosi 1970: age 28, 22 HR, 82 RBI, .278/.353/.459. Tejada 2005: age 29, 26 HR, 98 RBI, .304/.349/.515). He'd been hurt part of '71 and never recovered.
This is disingenuous. Seaver was dealt because the Mets determined they could not afford him. And while the players acquired turned out to be not much, again, that is only in hindsight. Zachry was the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, and Henderson was a top hitting prospect who went .297/.372/.480 in 350 AB for the Mets. He never again did better.
This is just silly. Fourteen years later, this deal looks stupid. But again, in 1991 Davis was one of the most feared sluggers in baseball; at the age of 29 he had 176 career HR, and though he wasn't a great 1B, it was felt he'd have a long career as a DH in Baltimore. Schilling was a headcase who had great talent but one career win, and had consistently pissed off his coaches, managers and teammates with his attitude.
I don't think anyone could have predicted that Martinez would do all of that for other teams. Yes, he was a good-looking young pitcher, but it seemed reasonable to deal a 21-year-old pitcher for a 24-year-old second baseman who had had three solid seasons as a major league hitter. This one didn't work out for the Dodgers.
Disingenuous again. The Blue Jays couldn't afford Clemens after two stellar seasons there. Bush was viewed as a good 2B prospect, though he failed, and Wells did have two good years for the Blue Jays.
So as you can see, some of the reasons these pitcher-for-hitter deals didn't work out can be seen only in hindsight. Looking at them solely from the knowledge had at the time, they looked like sure things.
What about this trade? Would you do it? There was a team that had a 24-year-old outfielder who'd had over 1000 career at-bats. He had great potential, but never hit for the power that the club had hoped for, and struck out a ton, and had regressed badly in the last year and a half.
That team got an offer for this outfielder: a 27-year-old starting pitcher coming off a season in which he'd won 18 games and finished in the top ten in league ERA. He'd been consistently solid, had a previous 20-win season, oh, and the offering club also was willing to throw in a respected veteran relief pitcher and a 24-year-old outfield backup, and all they wanted apart from the outfielder was a couple of castoff relievers.
You'd make that deal, right? That pitcher sounds like gold, right? Sounds like you're getting Barry Zito for Corey Patterson, right?
I'm describing the Brock-for-Broglio deal, of course.
What I'm trying to say here is that it doesn't always work the way you think it will at the time, and trading a "sure thing" pitcher for a "take a chance" hitter isn't always what you're going to get.
And getting Miguel Tejada isn't "taking a chance". It's getting a former MVP who's a perennial All-Star. Would it be better to get him without giving up Mark Prior?
Sure it would. And maybe Jim Hendry can engineer such a deal. But sometimes you have to be bold.
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66 comments
Comments
That's More Like It....
Let's hope Hendry's recent low profile means he's working on something that will please everybody, or at least most people.
Within the past week here, there was an article in the Long Beach Press Telegram about how sports talk radio is admittedly going after the 18-34 demographic, one that the programmers feel don't appreciate hard news but instead want to be entertained and inflamed. What has always struck me funny about targeting this demographic is that the age group with the REAL disposable income, 35 on up, is rendered irrelevant. We're left to populate Cub blogs and use our cash to buy Bleed Cubbie Blue paraphenalia instead. Okay by me.
by BeerCub on Dec 28, 2005 10:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
What's interesting
I just hate being marketed to. People my age are not as dumb as marketers, demographers, and sociologists make us out to be.
by gauchodirk on Dec 28, 2005 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Voice of Reason
by mrcubsfan on Dec 28, 2005 10:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
i think
in my opinion, the two biggest problems last year were an ineffective bullpen and a lack of production/OBP out of the 1/2 spot in the order.
having a full year of dempster as the closer, plus adding howry/eyre (and maybe wood?) should make for a huge upgrade of the bullpen.
Adding Pierre, plus putting anybody but Neifi in the two-hole adds an immeasurable upgrade to the top of the order.
The second two biggest problems I think were pretty close in importance. Those being a lack of health/effectiveness/depth out of the rotation, and poor batting with RISP. I kind of think this is a "robbing peter to pay paul" scenario, where the gain from adding a clutch hitter like Tejada is matched by the loss of another starting pitcher who could be very effective.
Further, I'm not sure that all of the Cubs failures with RISP can be traced to personnel. The Cubs were at the bottom of the league in sacrifices and BA with RISP, yet near the top of the league in HR with RISP. What that tells me is there is a philosophical problem with the Cubs, not a personnel problem. Bringing in Tejada won't do much if we have a man on third with one out in a tie game and Bakers telling him to put the ball on Waveland.
This is not to say Tejada wouldn't help. But I'm not sure he helps more than he hurts, given his price, especially in the long run.
by tomas21 on Dec 28, 2005 12:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
pitching
by MOE on Dec 28, 2005 10:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Davis for Schilling et. al
by flyingdonut on Dec 28, 2005 11:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Your Gradnfather's Comment...
by Blue Monster on Dec 28, 2005 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Can we forget
by SonnyJ9 on Dec 28, 2005 11:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
no, we can't!
Are you sure $5 million per year is too much for the left-handed side of a platoon? Look at the this offseason's free agent signings, and you'll see that the market has gone up for everything this offsesaon. Its reasonable to believe this is the case for platoon players as well. Furthermore, we would be paying significantly less for the other side of the platoon, which would be playing less often. I can't see us paying more than the $2.2 millin Byrnes made last year if we signed him, and if we really wanted to splurge we could go get Craig Wilson, who is making $3 million next year. Spending a maximum of $8 million a year on RF, when we're getting excellent production out of the position, isn't unreasonable. Actually, it would be a very efficient expenditure of funds.
Now, whether you want to question whether Dusty/Hendry are willing to platoon Jones, that's a different matter. But to rule it out based solely on the moderate size of Jones's contract i think is inconsistent with the current market value of players.
by shawndgoldman on Dec 28, 2005 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Unwilling to
That's more to my point, I don't believe the Cubs are willing to platoon him, not that it isn't the right thing to do.
by SonnyJ9 on Dec 28, 2005 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But I don't WANT to forget the platoon idea...
by brianp88 on Dec 28, 2005 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
...better to get him without giving up Mark Prior?
- The Cubs would trade Matt Murton, Rich Hill, Michael Wuertz, and a prospect such as Brandon Sing for Barry Zito and Jay Payton.
- The Cubs would then trade Barry Zito, Felix Pie, Jay Payton and Ronny Cedeno for Miguel Tejada and Jay Gibbons.
In most Prior for Tejada scenarios that the O's seem likely to accept, the deal is something like:
Cubs trade Prior, Cedeno, Pie, and Hill for Tejada and Bedard.
So in order to analyze whether you'd rather do the deal with Prior in it or without Prior in it, you have to ask youreself the following question:
Would you rather have Prior and Gibbons, or Murton, Sing, Wuertz, and Bedard?
Of course, the names in that question depend on what it actually takes to get Zito and Payton, and also on the perceived difference between Zito and Prior in the O's mind. But if those proposed trades would go through, its a good way to compare the two scenarios under which we could obtain Tejada.
by shawndgoldman on Dec 28, 2005 11:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Jay Gibbons... yeck
Jay Gibbons: BA .277 OBP .317
That's an abysmal OBP for someone with a .277 average. Check Neifi's numbers, they are very similar.
Yes, we'd get Tejada, but he's 30 years old. I'd rather just hold onto what we got and not give up on Cedeno, Murton, and Pie. I think at least one of these guys is going to become something very special very soon.
by nickler on Dec 28, 2005 7:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Prior trade
This deal, I feel, was the jolt the Cubs needed. But it would have had to include Bedard, and I just don't think there is any way the O's would do that - even for Zambrano.
So now the Cubs mess includes a pitcher in Prior who has to feel less loyalty than before. This team as it stands will have to have A LOT go right to win 90 games. And I think Hendry is pretty much done, except for desperately trying to sign Lee, Zambrano, Prior, Pierre? to expensive deals - meaning there won't be much help coming for 2007 either.
by cubz1963 on Dec 28, 2005 11:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
A's rumor
by cervantes05 on Dec 28, 2005 11:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I disagree...
As far as Payton is concerned, i doubt Beane is a GM that plans on spending $4.5 million for a 4th OF (which is what Payton would be if the A's got Muron). I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him moved.
If you break down the trade as AZ Phil does, its basically Murton, Hill, and Wuertz for Zito and Sing for Payton. Both trades seem entirely reasonable.
by shawndgoldman on Dec 28, 2005 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and just to clarify...
by shawndgoldman on Dec 28, 2005 11:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
unbelievable
face it, folks -- hendry's about done. what you see is what you are probably going to get on april 3. this team already costs over $100mm.
cf pierre
2b walker (we hope! -- otherwise, insert neifi here)
1b lee
rf jones
3b aramis
lf murton
c barrett
ss cedeno
bench: neifi, hairston, mabry, patterson, blanco
rot: z, prior, maddux, williams, rusch
pen: dempster, howry, wuertz, wellemeyer, williamson, novoa; eyre and ohman
that's 26, so one will be picked off (i'll guess williamson).
by gaius marius on Dec 28, 2005 12:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Where's Wood?
by cubz1963 on Dec 28, 2005 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
by sparkles721 on Dec 28, 2005 12:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ok spark
by gaius marius on Dec 29, 2005 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i
i'm wondering what will happen to the rotation when Wood comes back healthy, assuming that happens. is sounded as though rusch was all but assured that he wouldn't be in the pen if he resigned. and williams seems more suited to starting than relieving. maddux obviously wouldn't be demoted.
i'm not sure if williams can be sent down to AAA until we have an injury in the roation, but i don't know what else could happen.
by tomas21 on Dec 29, 2005 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'd put him in the pen
by gaius marius on Dec 29, 2005 2:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
by sparkles721 on Dec 29, 2005 1:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hope so
by gaius marius on Dec 29, 2005 2:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
From the MLB Cubs' site
by KenBrett34 on Dec 28, 2005 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
by Ivychat on Dec 28, 2005 2:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agreed to bet...
by Al Yellon on Dec 28, 2005 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
none of my business, but
by gaius marius on Dec 29, 2005 1:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right...
by Al Yellon on Dec 29, 2005 2:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm assuming
by gaius marius on Dec 29, 2005 1:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Really...
God's not the only one, I love Woody too.
by sparkles721 on Dec 29, 2005 1:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Say Gaius...
by Al Yellon on Dec 29, 2005 2:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'd
by tomas21 on Dec 29, 2005 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he will...
by sparkles721 on Dec 29, 2005 3:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
my standard ante
and yes, i would be willing to bet a donut on that possibility, if you please to.
by gaius marius on Dec 29, 2005 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
by tomas21 on Dec 29, 2005 4:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and
and i doubt you would ever call him that if you met him, he's one of the true gentlemen in the game.
My grandfather, one of the best human beings to ever walk the planet, used to say that if you wouldn't say something to someone's face, you probably shouldn't say it. words to live by, and i don't think being a public figure should make you lose that act of decency towards you.
by tomas21 on Dec 29, 2005 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
looks like
i'm not the only one you've assigned a fantasy personality to. have him over for dinner much, do you? ;)
fwiw, i feel quite fine about it. hendry is a public person in his job and he should know it if he doesn't. it's why he makes the money he does. and such commentary, specious or not, is part and parcel to public life.
besides, he really does like donuts.
by gaius marius on Dec 30, 2005 9:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
fantasy?
to consider someone a gentleman doesn not require intimate knowledge of the person. its not like i said he never lies to his wife or something.
and to my mind your namecalling of hendry is more than specious, its cowardly and classless, but it doesn't surprise me to hear it from you, or that you can't recognize it in yourself.
why does a public figure not deserve the same common decency and respect you'd give to someone you met on the street (you don't laugh and point and make fun of fat people you meet, do you? i hope?).
public figures are certainly subject to criticism, especially when their work affects a large sector of the population such as a politician or gm. But i don't think they are subject to childish namecalling. again, that's classless.
thanks for giving more evidence that my "fantasy" persona of you is reality.
by tomas21 on Dec 30, 2005 9:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
what's classless
and why do you assume that i don't mean "cruller jim" affectionately? i like crullers myself, you know. and, while i don't think he's done a particularly competent job for the cubs over the years, i have little reason to think he's a bad guy -- just as you have precious little reason to think he's a good guy.
anyway, if you want to feign indignation, let 'er rip. your world is your business. but to me, he is and always will be my dear old cruller jim. :)
by gaius marius on Dec 30, 2005 10:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I read this exchange with interest...
Maybe you are, and maybe you do have some respect for Hendry (and other public figures), as you say.
It's one thing to criticize the public performance (the GM job) of a public figure.
It's another to call him names. I'd stay away from the latter.
by Al Yellon on Dec 30, 2005 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
are you joking?
al, you don't have to play the village parson just because some troll on your site is projecting his less admirable confrontation-seeking traits (which are clearly manifest, as he continues to try to interpret any comment i make in the worst possible light as ammunition to mindlessly attack) onto me.
it's funny! laugh, dammit! :)
by gaius marius on Dec 30, 2005 12:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and seriously
that you don't see tomas expressing righteous outrage against that says everything about what motivates him, but that's neither here nor there.
but you, al? sanctimony isn't civility.
by gaius marius on Dec 30, 2005 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I did laugh...
As far as the contest is concerned, I thought it was a way to gently poke fun at someone who has been so consistently negative and occasionally downright churlish here.
He's had fun with it on his site too, you know.
Hope you voted.
by Al Yellon on Dec 31, 2005 6:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
fwiw
as a point of reference, the longest conversation i've ever had with a public figure was with robert downey junior some years ago. he seemed very nice. wildly extrapolate your own starstruck conclusions.
by gaius marius on Dec 30, 2005 10:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Williamson...
I do not think Hendry is done. I do think we are likely not to hear much for the next week to ten days, for the simple reason that baseball management types, like anyone else, would like some time off during the holidays!
by Al Yellon on Dec 28, 2005 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
williamson
may be servicable and may never pitch in the bigs again. the man's had his arm opened up more often than the hood of my car. i wouldn't count on him for anything quite yet. if he can knock wellemeyer or novoa out of the pen, so much the better. but i'll have to see it first. he could get crushed in mesa.
by gaius marius on Dec 29, 2005 1:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Garland Signed...
by SonnyJ9 on Dec 28, 2005 12:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well...
You want Hendry to be bold? I think at this point keeping Prior is more of a risk than acquiring Miguel Tejada. I say take the risk and keep Prior. Let him show us that he belongs here.
by sparkles721 on Dec 28, 2005 12:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It could get ugly if Tejada for Prior goes through
"If the Cubs were to acquire Miguel Tejada in a trade this off-season, he would have one opportunity to demand a trade, and that would be during the "Free-Agency Filing Period" during the 15 days immediately following the 2006 World Series. If Tejada were to demand a trade at that time, the Cubs would have until March 15, 2007, to trade him, and Tejada would get to name no more than six clubs to which he would refuse a trade.
If the Cubs fail to trade him by March 15, 2007, Tejada would immediately become a free-agent, and he would lose the $38m in salaries left on his contract.
If Tejada demands a trade after the 2006 season and the Cubs DO trade him prior to March 15th, then Tejada can be a free-agent after the 2009 season, which is when his contract expires, anyway."
Do we really want to take a chance that the best shortstop in baseball will opt out after only one year? You know that Boston and the Yankees would be willing to spend a whole lot more than what would remain on the last 3 years of his contract to sign him. His agent's not dumb no matter what you think of Tejada. This could turn into a one year Furcal type deal for him. Demand a trade and pit the Cubs against even bigger spenders than we are.
If so, after 2006 both Prior and Tejada would be gone. Do you really want to take that chance?
by Kurt on Dec 28, 2005 3:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Heh!
Wood is a free agent after this year as is Juan Pierre and Derrek Lee.
Additionally, A Ram can elect free agency if he'd like due to the stupid contract that Hendry signed him to.
How great would that be to Jim Hendry's "legacy" to see him trade for a guy on a 4 year contract only to lose him after 1? And see the rest of the team walk out after him?
Such a scenario could only happen to the Cubs. Hendry might just deserve it for his rampant negligence since the summer of 2003.
Then again, Hendry isn't guaranteed a job beyond 2006. He might not care who's here in 2007 because he might not be either!
by Ivychat on Dec 28, 2005 4:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
...you
by priorpwnz on Dec 28, 2005 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
by Ivychat on Dec 28, 2005 5:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
question
justing wondering whether the napoleon cartoon of you was accurate at all.
by tomas21 on Dec 29, 2005 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
mmhmm
by priorpwnz on Dec 29, 2005 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, hold on a second.
There are no assurances of that, of course, but methinks Arizona Phil is trying to stir up something that isn't really there.
Finally, if this scenario played out and the Cubs did trade him before March 15, 2007 -- if he is indeed "the best shortstop in baseball", as you note, wouldn't he command some pretty good players in return?
by Al Yellon on Dec 28, 2005 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
From Tejada for 4 years to players in return?
As for your hope on getting good players in return, that could be the case, but do we want to see Prior go this year and Tejada the next, already knowing the turmoil that we'll have on the free agent front after 2006? If the talks drag on into March we could have a similar situation to Houston as we're afraid to work on other fronts until we see what the players "traded for" could cost us.
If Prior is gone and Tejada walks, watch everyone else start jumping ship that might otherwise stay (Aramis) opting out for greener pastures.
Prior is a known entity, contract wise, for the next 3 years. We can still hope that the big 3 can put together an injury free year and make us all happy. But if Prior is gone and Tejada leaves after 2006, I don't think you'll be able to stop that hole in the dam from rupturing.
I think you have too much faith in Tejada staying in Wrigley after he arrives. You may be hoping for too much. Tejada already knows that he's underpaid compared to Furcal and that he can rectify that after one year in Chicago. He also has might enjoy going back into the fray of an AL East pennant race as a Yankees or Sox player, with a better chance (in his mind) to win a ring. I'm thinking from Tejada's perspective, not as a Cub fan.
by Kurt on Dec 28, 2005 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Although I have been supportive...........
Must confess I'd forgotten about this out clause, and unless you can lock down Tejada BEFORE sending Prior to Baltimore (which is unlikely), I'm now shifting my support to the "Retain Prior's Services" campaign.
by tville on Dec 29, 2005 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Brock for Broglio
you make great points about trades. The truth is none of us have a time machine to look ahead and see what will happen. Your Brock for Broglio example is well done. Still as Cub fans, we must no be spooked by deals that took place 40 years ago.
All of the arguments here are well thought out, still we cannot tell the outcome. We can only hope that JH makes decisions that are in this team best interest.
by ccd on Dec 28, 2005 10:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That's exactly right...
The former was a negative, although the Cubs did get value (three years of Matt Clement). The latter was a huge mistake.
If a GM goes through life thinking every minor leaguer he deals will turn out to be those guys -- or Lou Brock -- he's not going to have a job very long.
by Al Yellon on Dec 29, 2005 3:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And don't forget............
by tville on Dec 29, 2005 11:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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